A LEVEL STATISTICS NOTES PREPARED BY MANYUVIRE D CELL 0783235483

SPECIAL DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Syllabus objectives

 Outline characteristics of Poisson distribution

 Calculate the mean, variance and standard deviation of Poisson distribution
 Use the probability density functions to calculate probabilities
 Solve problems involving the Poisson distributions

 WHAT IS A POISSON DISTRIBUTION?

 It is a probability distribution model used to model a discrete random variable X
where X is the number of times that a particular event occurs within a given
interval or space of time and can take the values 0, 1, 2, 3, …
 The conditions for a Poisson distribution are:
o Events occur at random and independently of each other, in a given interval of
time or space.
o The average number of events in the given interval, λ, is uniform and finite.
 If the conditions above are satisfied then X P( ), where P( X= x) = for x =
0,1,2,…to infinity
 Examples where Poisson might be appropriate are:
o the number of telephone calls to a switchboard in a 10-minute interval
o the number of spelling mistakes on a page of a newspaper
o the number of cars passing the front of a school in a 10-minute interval
o the number of raisins in a fruit scone

 CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
 If X P( ), then P( X= x) = for x = 0,1,2,…to infinity
EXAMPLE
A receptionist finds that on average the number of telephone calls to a
switchboard in a 10-minute interval is 4. Find the probability that
a) there are exactly five calls in a ten minutes interval.
b) there are no calls in ten minute interval.
c) there are less than three calls in ten minutes interval
d) there are at least 2 calls in ten minutes interval.
Solutions
X P( )
a) P( X= 5) = = 0,156 to 3 s.f

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b) P( X= 0) = = 0,018 to 3 s.f
c) P(X<3) = P(X= 0 or 1or 2)
= +
= 0,238 to 3 s.f
d) P(X = 1-P(X=0 or 1 or 2)
=1
= 0,762 to 3 s.f

 Cumulative probabilities p( without using tables

o Cumulative distributions tables may be used to simplify cumulative
probabilities however if they are not provided you need to calculate them.
o For P(X you add up all probabilities from x = 0 add up to x = a. For
example P(X = P(X= 0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2) +P(X=3)+P(X=4)

 Adapting Poisson distribution to different time intervals

o A Poisson distribution can be adapted to different time intervals. For example
given the average number of telephone calls in 10 minutes interval we may
also use the same distribution for calculating probabilities calls per 5 minutes
and 20 minutes intervals.
EXAMPLE
A receptionist finds that on average the number of telephone calls to a
switchboard in a 10-minute interval is 4. Find the probability that
a) there are exactly five calls in a 5 minutes interval.
b) there are no calls in 20 minutes interval.
Solutions
a) For 10 min =4 For 5 minutes = ×4 = 2

X P(2) P( X= 5) = = 0,036 to 3 s.f

b) For 10 min =4 For 20 minutes = ×4 = 8

X P(8) P( X= 0) = = 0,000335 to 3 s.f

 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF A POISSON

 If X P( ) E(X) = and Var(X) =
EXAMPLE
X follows a Poisson distribution with standard deviation 1,2. Find the Probability
that X is = 3
Solution
E(X) = and Var(X) = and Standard deviation =
= 1,2
= 1,44 therefore X P( )

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P( X= 3) = = 0,118 to 3 s.f

 ADDING POISSON DISTRIBUTIONS

 If two Poisson variables X and Y are independent, then the variable Z = X + Y also
has a Poisson distribution.
 If X P( ) and Y P( ), then X+Y ( )
EXAMPLE
The number of emergency calls received by a receptionist in a 5-minute interval is
modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 2. The number of other calls
received by the receptionist in a 15-minute interval is modelled by a Poisson
distribution with mean 3. Find the probability that:
a ) Exactly 8 calls of any type, are received by the receptionist in a 15-minute
interval
Solution
Let X be number of emergency calls in a 15 minute interval
In a 5 minute interval = 2 so in a 15 minute interval = ×2 = 6
Therefore X P( ).
Let Y be the number of other calls in a 15 minute interval then Y P( ).
X+Y P( ) = P(9)
P(X+Y=8) = = 0,132 to 3 s.f

 POISSON AS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE BINOMIAL

 Binomial probabilities can be quite difficult to evaluate when n is large and in
such situations it is sometimes useful to use an approximation.
 Since the mean E(X) of a binomial is np we can use Po(np) as an approximation
to a B(n,p) provided n is large and p < 0,1.
 Generally If X ~ B(n, p) and n is large p is small then X can be approximated
by Po(λ), where λ = np.
EXAMPLES
If X B(500, 0,001) find the probability that X is
a) greater than 2.
b) equal to 3
Solution
Since n is large and p is small, the Poisson approximation to the binomial is
appropriate. λ = np = 500 × 0.001 = 0.5
a) X P(0,5)
P(X>2) = 1-[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)]
=1
= 0,014 to 3 s.f
b) P(X=3) = =0,013 to 3s.

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 POISSON APPROXIMATED BY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION.

 Poisson distribution can be approximated by the normal distribution, provided that
its parameter (mean) λ is sufficiently large for the distribution to be reasonably
symmetrical and not positively skewed.
 If X P(λ) and λ then X N(λ λ)

 WORKED EXAM TYPE QUESTIONS

1. The discrete random variable X ~ Po(2.5). Find P(1<X
Solution
P(1<X = P(X=2)+P(X=3) = = 0,470 to 3 s.f
2. The discrete random variable X ~ Po(λ). Given that P(X = 2) = P(X = 3), find λ.
Solution
P(X = 2) = P(X = 3)

6 =2
=3
3. An estate agent has been selling houses at a rate of 1.8 per week.
a )Find the probability that in a particular week she sells at least 3 houses.
b)The estate agent meets her weekly target if she sells at least 3 houses in one
week. Find the probability that over a period of 4 consecutive weeks she meets
her weekly target exactly once.
Solution
a) X ~ Po(1,8)
P(X ) = 1-[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)]
1
= 0,269 to 3 s.f
b) Probability of meeting weekly target is 0,269. Meeting the weekly targets in
4 consecutive weeks will follow a binomial distribution with mean p = 0,269.
X ~ Bin(4;0,269)
P(X=1) = 4C1(0,269)(0,731)3 = 0,420.
4. The random variable Y ~ Po(λ).Find the value of λ such that P(Y = 5) is 1,25
times the value of P(Y = 3).
Solution

= 25
= 25
= 25
=5

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5. i) In a large city, one person in 65 dies of AIDS. If a random sample of 250

people is taken, find the probability that the sample includes at most two
people who die of AIDS.
ii) Calculate the number of people who must be taken in order that the
probability of including at least one person who die of AIDS is 0,95.
ZIMSEC NOV 2003 P4
Solution
i) X Bin(250 ; )
n > 50 and p < 0,1 so use X Po(np)
np = 250 × = 3,846
P(X ≤ 2) = P(X=0 or 1 or 2)
= + 3,846 +
= 0,2615
ii)X Po
P(X ) = 0,95
1−P(X<1) = 0,95
1−P(X=0) = 0,95
1− = 0,95
= 0.05
=ln0.05
= ln0,05
n = 194,7
194 people must be taken.
6. (a) State the conditions under which the Poisson distribution may be used as
an approximation to the Binomial distribution.
(b) Belts are manufactured in a factory. It has been found over a long period of
time that on average, 1 defective belt is produced in every 100. The belts are
packed in cartons of 50. Assuming that the process is working normally,
determine to 3 decimal places, the probability that in 5 cartons there will be no
defective belt. [3] ZIMSEC June 2004 P4
Solution
a) When p < 0,1 and n is large or n > 50 and np< 5
b)5 cartons = 5 × 50 = 250 belts.
1 in 100 will be defective implies that 2,5 in 250 will be defective
X Po
p(X=0) = = 0,082
7. A Harare company keeps records on the number of workers who arrive late for
work. In a period of 300 days, there were 500 late arrivals. Assume that the
number of late arrivals per day follows a Poisson distribution. Find
a) the expected number of late arrivals per day.
b) the probability of exactly 2 late arrivals on any given day,
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c) the probability of exactly 10 late arrivals in 5 days. ZIMSEC NOV 2007

Solution
a) E(X) =
=
=1,67
b) X Po(1,67)
P(X=2) =
= 0,2623
c)For 5 days X Po(5× ) = X Po(8,33)

P(X=10) =
= 0,1069
8. The number of patients admitted at a medical centre each day is found to have
a Poisson distribution with mean 2.
a) Evaluate the probability that on a particular day there will be no admission.
b) At the beginning of one day, the hospital has 5 beds available. Calculate the
probability that this will be an insufficient number for the day.
c) Calculate the probability that there will be exactly three admissions
altogether on two consecutive days.
d) 150 patients are attended to, at the centre on one particular day the
probability that a patient will be admitted is 0,02. Using a suitable
approximation, find the probability that exactly 4 patients are admitted.
NOV 2011
Solution
a) X Po(2)
P(X=0) = = 0,1353
b)P(X >5) =1−[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)+P(X=5)]
=1−[ +2 + + + + ]
=1−0,983436741
=0,01656
c) = (0,180447044)2
=0,03256
d) X Bin(150; 0,02)
p < 0,1 and np =3 therefore X Po(3)
P(X=4) = = 0,1680

 PAST EXAM QUESTIONS FOR PRACTICE

1. Let X be the number of claims for severe medical condition requiring

hospitalisation received by a medical insurance company in a year. Such
medical conditions are estimated to affect 1 in 1 000 of the population in a

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year.
a) Given that the medical company receives n claims in a year, State the
distribution of X. [1]
b) This medical insurance company deals with two manufacturing companies
A and B with 500 and 750 employees respectively. Find the probability that
the number of claims received from
i) company A is 2 or more. [5]
ii) both companies is 2. [3] NOV 2008
2. The number of people joining a queue in a supermarket between 6.30 am and
7.00 am on a week day follows a Poisson distribution with mean of 2 people
joining the queue per minute. Find the probability that
a) five people join the queue in one minute, [2]
b) more than four people join the queue in one minute, [3]
c) less than four people join the queue in a 2 minute interval. [4] NOV 2013
3. An insurance company receives on average 3 claims on any given week. Find
the probability that the company receives
a) at least 2 claims in any given week, [3]
b) one claim a day, assuming that the company works 5 days in a week, [3]
c) a total of 2 claims during 3 consecutive weeks, [3]
d) at least 2 claims in exactly one of the 3 consecutive weeks. [3] JUNE 2015
4. The number of passengers arriving at a taxi rank per hour was found to have a
Poisson distribution with mean 2.
a) Calculate the probability that in a particular hour there will be no passenger
arriving. [2]
b) At the beginning of an hour there will be 4 taxis available for hire.
Calculate the probability that this will be an insufficient for the hour assuming
that each taxi allows only one passenger. [3]
c) Calculate the probability that there will be exactly 2 passengers arriving in 2
consecutive hours. [3] JUNE 2016
5. a) On average there are 2 errors on a typed page of a certain document. Find
the probability that there are
i) 3 errors on the first page, ii) 5 errors on the first two pages. [6]
b) i) State the condition under which the Poisson distribution can be used as
an approximation to the Binomial. [2]
ii) It is known that 2% of the population of a certain nation has epilepsy. 60
people are chosen at random from this nation. By using a suitable
approximation, find the probability that there are 2 cases of epilepsy among
them. [3] NOV 2017 P4
6. A survey on 2 000 students at a certain university has shown that on average
one in every 500 students at the university catches a cold in a week. Use a
suitable approximation to find the probability that
a) exactly one student catches a cold in a week, [2]
b) at least three students catch a cold in a month, assuming that the month has
exactly 28 days.[3] JUNE 2017

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7. a) In a certain school, 90% of the learners are right handed. Find the
probability that in a random sample of
i) 8 learners, exactly 6 will be right handed. [3]
ii) 20 learners , fewer than 18 will be right handed. [4]
iii) 200 learners, at most 182 will be right handed. [4] N2018 P2
8. The number of people who use a lift in a multi-storey building follows a
Poisson distribution with mean of 2 in a minute. Find the probability that
a) exactly 3 people use the lift in a minute, [2]
b) less than 4 people use a lift in a period of 2 minutes, [3]
c) more than 2 people use a lift in 3 minute period. [3] N2019 P2
9. A school has two photocopiers X and Y. the number of times per week that X
breaks down has a Poisson distribution with mean 0.3, while independently
the number of times that Y breaks down in a week follows a Poisson
distribution with mean 0.2. Find the probability that in the next 4 weeks.
(i) X will not breakdown at all. [4]
(ii) There will be a total of 3 breaks down. [3]
(iii) Each photocopier will breakdown exactly twice. [3] SPMN P1
10. An insurance company receives on average 3 claims on any given week. Find
the probability that the company receives
(a) at least 2 claims in any given week,
(b) one claim in a day, assuming that the company works for 5 days in a week,
(c) a total of 2 claims during 3 consecutive weeks,
(d) at least 2 claims in exactly one of the 3 consecutive weeks.
marks[4,3,4,4] Specimen P2

 SOLUTIONS TO PAST EXAM QUESTIONS

1. a) X Bin 2. a) X Po(2)
b) i) A Bin(500 ; ) P(X=5) =
n > 50 and p < 0,1 so use
= 0,036089
A Po(np) np =0,5
= 0,0361 to 3 s.f
A Po(0,5)
b)P(X>4)= 1−P(X
P(A 2)
=1−[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X
=1 –[P(A=0)+P(A=1)]
=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)
= 1− ( +0,5 )
= 0,0902 =1−[ 2
ii) B Bin(750; ) ]
np= 0,75 B Po(0,75) =1−0,9473
P(A + B =2) =0,05265
A Po(0,5)and B Po(0,75) c) = 2×2 =4 and
A+ B Po(0,5 + 0,75) X Po(4)
A+ B Po(1,25) P(X<4)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+
P(A + B =2) = P(X=2)+P(X=3)
= 0,2238 = 2

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6. a) X Bin( 2000 ; )
= 0,4335 p < 0,1 np = 2000×0,002
3. a) X Po(3) use Poisson approximation
P(X =1−P(X <2) X Po(4)
= 1−[P(X=0)+P(X=1) P(X=1) =
= 1− ) =0,07326
= 1−0,1991 b) X Po(16)
= 0,80085 P(X 3) = 1−P(X
b) X Po =1−(
) = 0,999983682
P(X=1) =
7. i) ) X Po(6)
= 0,3292
P(X ) = P(X=0)+
c) X Po
P(X=1) +P(X=2)
P(X=2) =
= ( )
= 0,004998091
= 0,0619
=0,004998
ii) X Po(3)
d) X Bin(3 ; 0,80085)
P(X=0) =
P(X=1) = 3C1
= 0,049787
(0,80085)(0,19915)2
8. a) X Po(2)
= 0,095287
4. a) P(X=0) = P(X=3) =
= 0,1353 = 0,1804
b) P(X>4) =1 –P(X b) X Po(4)
=1−[ P(X ) = P(X=0)+
] P(X=1) +P(X=2)+P(X=3)

= 1−0,947346982 = (
=0,05265 )
c) X Po(4)
= ( )
P(X=2) =
= 0,1465 = ( )
5. a) i) X Po(2) = 0,6166
c) X Po(6)
P(X=3) = = 0,18
P(X ) = 1−P(X
ii) X Po(4) =1−[P(X=0)+ P(X=1)
P(X=5) = = 0,156 +P(X=2)]
b) i)When n is large ie = 1− ( )
n>50, p< 0,1 and np < 5
ii) X Bin(60 ; 0,02) np = = 1− ( )
1,2 therefore X Po(1,2) = 1− ( )
= 0,9380
P(X=2) = =
0,216859832
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9. i) ) X Po(0,3) for 1 week = 1 – [P(X=0) +P(X=1)]

and X Po(1,2) for 4 weeks =1– +3 )
P(X=0) = = 1−0,199148273
= 0,800851726
= 0,3012
= 0,8009
ii) Y Po(0,2 ×4) = W
b) For 1 day = 0,6
Po(0,8) for 4 weeks
P(X=1) = 0,6
Let X+Y = W
= 0,329288211
W Po(0,8+1,2)
= 0,3293
W Po(2)
c) For 3 weeks = 9
Probability of a total of 3
breakdown = P(W =3) P(X=2) =

= = 0,004998097
= 0,0050
= 0,1804
d) X Bin (3 ; 0,8009)
iii) P(X=2) P(Y=2)
P(X =1 –[P(X=0)
= × + P(X=1)]
= 0,2166859832 = 1−[3C0 (0,1991)3
×0,143785268 +3C1(0,1991)2(0,8009)]
= 0,031156252 = 1− 0,103137459
= 0,0312 = 0,89686254
10. a) X Po(3) = 0,8969
P(X ) = 1 – P(X < 2)

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