Probability (Baye’s Theorem)

ISC Class 12 Board Questions

1. A firm produces steel pipes in three plants A, B and C with daily production of 500, 1000 and
2000 units respectively. It is known that fractions of defective output produced by the three
plants are respectively 0.005, 0.008 and 0.01. A pipe is selected at random from a day’s total
production and found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from the first
plant?
(ISC 2005, 2000)

2. An insurance company insured 6000 scooter drivers, 3000 car drivers and 9000 truck drivers.
The probability of an accident involving a scooter, a car or a truck is 0.02, 0.06 and 0.3
respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. Find the probability that he
is a car driver. (ISC 2002)

3. A company has two plants which manufacture scooters. Plant I manufacture 80% of the
scooters while plant II manufactures 20% of the scooters. At plant I, 85 out of 100 scooters
are being of standard quality, while at plant II only 65 out of 100 scooters are rated as being
of standard quality. If a scooter is of standard quality, what is the probability that it comes
from plant I? (ISC 2006)

4. An insurance company insured 1500 scooter drivers, 2500 car drivers and 4500 truck drivers.
The probability of a scooter, a car and a truck meeting with an accident is 0.01, 0.02 and 0.04
respectively. If one of the insured persons meets with an accident, find the probability that
he is a scooter driver. (ISC 2007)

5. A class consists of 50 students out of which there are 10 girls. In the class 2 girls and 5 boys
are rank holders in an examination. If a student is selected at random from the class and is
found to be rank holder, what is the probability that the student selected is a girl?
(ISC 2008)

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6. An insurance company insured 4000 doctors, 8000 teachers and 12000 engineers. The
probabilities of a doctor, a teacher and an engineer dying before the age of 58 years are
0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 respectively. If one of the insured persons dies before the age of 58
years, find the probability that he is a doctor. (ISC 2009)

7. A factory has three machines A, B and C producing 1500, 2500 and 3000 bulbs per day
respectively. Machine A produces 1.5% defective bulbs, machine B produces 2% defective
bulbs and machine C produces 2.5% defective bulbs. At the end of the day, a bulb is drawn
at random and is found to be defective. What is the probability that this defective bulb has
been produced by machine B? (ISC 2010)

8. Bag A contains 2 white, 1 black and and 3 red balls. Bag B contains 3 white, 2 black and 4 red
balls and bag C contains 4 white, 3 black and 2 red balls. One bag is chosen at random, and 2
balls are drawn at random from that bag. If the randomly drawn balls happen to be red and
black, what is the probability that both balls come from bag B? (ISC 2011)

9. In a class of 75 students, 15 are above average, 45 are average and the rest below average
achievers. The probability that an above average achieving student fails is 0.005, that an
average achieving student fails is 0.05 and the probability of a below average achieving
student failing is 0.15. If a student is known to have passed, what is the probability that he is
a below average achiever? (ISC 2012)

10. For A, B, and C, the chances of being selected as the manager of a firm are 4: 1: 2,
respectively. The probabilities for them to introduce a radical change in the marketing
strategy are 0.3, 0.8 and 0.5 respectively. If a change takes place; find the probability that it
is due to the appointment of B. (ISC 2013)

11. In a bolt factory, three machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 35% and 40% of the total
production respectively and of their respective outputs, 5%, 4% and 2% are defective. A bolt
is drawn at random from the total production and it is found to be defective. Find the
probability that it was manufactured by machine C. (ISC 2014)

12. Box I contains two white and three black balls and box II contains four white and one black
balls and box III contains three white and four black balls. A dice having three red, two
yellow and one green face, is thrown to select the box. If red face turns up, we pick up box I,
if a yellow face turns up, we pick up box II, otherwise we pick up box III. Then we draw a ball
from the selected box. If the ball drawn is white, what is the probability that the dice had
turned up with a red face? (ISC 2015)

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13. In an automobile factory, certain parts are to be fixed into the chassis in a section before it
moves into another section. On a given day, one of the three persons A, B and C carries out
this task. A has 45% chance, B has 35% chance and C has 20% chance of doing the task. The
1 1 1
probability that A, B and C will take more than the allotted time is , and respectively. If
6 10 20
it is found that the time taken is more than the allotted time, what is the probability that A
has done the task? (ISC 2016)

14. A fair die is rolled. If face one turns up, a ball is drawn from Bag A. If face 2 or 3 turns up, a
ball is drawn from Bag B. If face 4 or 5 or 6 turns up, a ball is drawn from Bag C. Bag A
contains 3 red and 2 white balls, Bag B contains 3 red, and 4 white balls and Bag C contains 4
red and 5 white balls. The die is rolled, a bag is picked up and a ball is drawn. If the drawn
ball is red; what is the probability that it is drawn from Bag B? (ISC 2017)

15. Given three identical boxes A, B and C. Box A contains 2 gold and 1 silver coin, Box B
contains 1 gold, and 2 silver coins and Box C contains 3 silver coins. A person chooses a box
at random and takes out a coin. If the coin drawn is of silver, find the probability that it has
been drawn from the Box which has the remaining two coins also of silver. (ISC 2019)

16. An insurance company insured 1000 scooter drivers, 2000 car drivers and 4000 truck drivers.
The probability of accidents by scooter, car and truck drivers are 0.02, 0.05 and 0.03
respectively. If one of the insured persons meets with an accident, find the probability that
he is a truck driver. (ISC Sem 2 - 2022)

Answer
5 68 3
1. 2. 0.06 3. 4.
61 81 49

5. 2 6. 1 7. 20 8. 20
7 22 59 53

4 16 42
9. 0.18 10. 11. 12.
15 69 113

13. 0.625 14. 90 15. 1 16. 1

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