COMP 7180: Quantitative Methods for

Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence

Lecture 6: Introduction to Probability

Lecturer: Dr. Yang Liu and Dr. Jun Qi

Why Probability
• Probability theory is a mathematical framework for representing
uncertain statements.

• The laws of probability tell us how AI systems should reason, so we

design our algorithms to compute or approximate various expressions
derived using probability theory.

• We can use probability and statistics to theoretically analyze the

behavior of proposed AI systems.

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Why Probability: An Example
• Suppose you are trying to determine if a patient has inhalational
anthrax (吸入性炭疽病). You observe the following symptoms:

A. The patient has a cough；

B. The patient has a fever；

C. The patient has difficulty in breathing.

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Why Probability: An Example
• You would like to determine how likely the patient is infected with
inhalational anthrax given that the patient has a cough, a fever, and
difficulty in breathing;

• We are not 100% certain that the

patient has anthrax because of
these symptoms. We are dealing
with uncertainty!

4
Why Probability: An Example

• Now suppose you order an x-ray and observe that the patient has a
wide mediastinum ((胸腔)纵隔);

• Your belief the probability that the

patient is infected with inhalational
anthrax is now much higher.

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Why Probability: An Example
• In the previous slides, what you observed affected your belief that the
patient is infected with anthrax;

• This is called reasoning with uncertainty;

• Wouldn’t it be nice if we had some methodology for reasoning with

uncertainty? In fact, we do ! ☺

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What is Probability
• A probability can be regard as a function to estimate the value of every event.

As a function, we should have a domain (定义域). What is the domain?

Given a sample space S: set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

The domain consists of some subsets of S.

An element E in the domain is called event.

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What is Probability
Example: Toss a coin (1 time). Then, the outcome is H or T, where H is
the head of a coin and T is the tail of a coin.

Then S= {H, T};

The domain is { {H,T}, {H}, {T}, ∅}.

{H,T}, {H}, {T}, ∅ are called events.

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 What is Probability
The domain should satisfy some special properties:

• S and ∅ should be event;

• If E is an event, then E is an event (E = S-E);
• If E and F are both events, then E∩F is an event, that is event E and
event F occur at the same time;
• If E and F are both events, then E∪F is an event, that is event E occur
or event F occur .

9
𝐶
𝐶
 What is Probability
Example: Toss a coin (1 time). Then, the outcome is H or T, where H is
the head of a coin and T is the tail of a coin.
Then S= { H, T}; The domain is { {H,T}, {H}, {T}, ∅}.
{H,T}, {H}, {T}, ∅ are called events.
• S and ∅ should be event;
• S = ∅; {H} = {T}; {T} ={H}; ∅ = S;
• S ∩ ∅=∅; S∩{H}={H}; S∩{T}={T}; {H}∩{T}=∅;
• {H}∪{T}=S; {H} ∪ ∅={H}; {T} ∪ ∅={T}.
10
𝐶
𝐶
𝐶
𝐶
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What is Probability
As a function, we should have a range (值域). What is the range?

Given an event E, a probability maps E into [0,1], that is 0≤P(E) ≤ 1.

If P(E)=0, then this event E will not occur.

If P(E)=1, then this event E occurs without uncertainty.

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What is Probability
Example. Toss a coin (1 time). There are outcomes: H and T, where H is
the head of a coin and T is the tail of a coin.

S= {H, T}; The domain is {{H,T}, {H}, {T}, ∅}.

{H,T}, {H}, {T}, ∅ are called events.

P({H,T}) =1; P({H}) = 0.5; P({T}) =0.5; P(∅)=0.

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What is Probability
Probability is a special function, which should satisfy some properities:
• P(S)=1; P(∅)=0; 0≤P(E) ≤ 1;

• If event E belongs to event F, then P(E)≤P(F);

• Given an event E, then P(E ) = 1-P(E);

• Given events E and F, then P(E∪F) = P(E)+P(F)-P(E∩F).

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𝐶
What is Probability
Example. Toss a coin (1 time). There are outcomes: H and T, where H is
the head of a coin and T is the tail of a coin.
P({H,T}) =1; P({H}) = 0.5; P({T}) =0.5; P(∅)=0.

• P({H,T})=1; P(∅)=0;

• P({H})= 1-P({T}) and P({H,T}) = 1-P(∅);

• P({H}∪{T}) = P({H})+P({T})-P(∅).
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What is Probability
• How to understand P(E∪F) = P(E)+P(F)-P(E∩F)?

E E ∩F F

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Random Variables
• Generally, it is very complex to represent an event;

• To deal with more complex events, researchers have developed random

variables (随机变量).

• Example. Toss a coin (1 time). In the sample space S={ H, T}, we design a
function X: S→{1,-1} such that X(H)=1 and X(T)=-1. Then X is
a random variable.
Moreover, P(X=1) = P({H}) = 0.5 and P(X=-1) = P({T})=0.5.
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What are Random Variables

• A random variable is a variable that can take on different values randomly. We
typically denote the random variable itself with an uppercase letter in plain
typeface, and the values it can take on with lowercase letters.

• For vector-valued variables, we would write the random variable as X and one
of its values as x.

• Random variables may be discrete or continuous. A discrete random variable is

one that has a finite or countably infinite number of states. A continuous
random variable is associated with a real value.

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Probability Distributions
• A probability distribution is a description of how likely a random
variable or set of random variables is to take on each of its possible
states. The way we describe probability distributions depends on
whether the variables are discrete or continuous.

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Discrete Variables and PMF

• A probability distribution over discrete variables may be described using

a probability mass function (PMF, 概率质量函数)

• The probability mass function maps from a state of a random variable to

the probability of that random variable taking on that state.

• 0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1

• ∑
P(X = x) = 1. We refer to this property as being normalized
x 19
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Discrete Variables and PMF: Examples

• Discrete uniform distribution (均匀分布) is one of the most

important discrete distributions
• It is a finite discrete distribution
• Assume that the range is x1,x2...xn, then

1 1
P(X = xi) = P(X = xi) =
∑ ∑
; = =1
•
𝑖
𝑛
𝑛
𝑛
𝑖
20

𝑛
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Continuous Variables and PDF

• A continuous variable X is a function;

• Range is not discrete and take values in real number;

• There is a probability density function (PDF) (概率密度函数) X(x) such

that
1) X(x) ≥ 0;

∫
2) P(a≤X≤b) = X(x) x;
+∞
𝑎
∫ X(x)
3) x=1.
𝑝
𝑑
𝑝
𝑑
21
𝑝
𝑝
𝑏
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Continuous Variables and PDF

• In principle, variables such as height, weight, and temperature are
continuous; in practice, the limitations of our measuring instruments
restrict us to a discrete (though sometimes very finely subdivided)
world.

• However, continuous models often approximate real-world situations

very well, and continuous mathematics (calculus) is frequently easier
to work with than mathematics of discrete variables and distributions.

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Continuous Variables and PDF: Example

• The weight of a certain animal like a dog.

This is a continuous random variable

because it can take on an infinite number
of values. For example, a dog might weigh
30.333 pounds, 50.340999 pounds,
60.5 pounds, etc.

What is the distribution of dog’s weight?

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Continuous Variables and PDF

It is similar to a Gaussian distribution. The probability density funtion is

1 1
exp( − 2 (x − ) )
2
2 2 2
𝜋
𝜎
𝜎
𝜇
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 Continuous Variables and PDF
• Continuous uniform distribution is one of the most important
continuous distributions.
• The probability density function of continuous unfiorm distribution
1
can be written as (x; , ) =
−
𝑏
𝑎
𝑝
𝑎
𝑏
25
Exercise 1
Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous
1. The number of applicants for a job.
2. The time between customers entering a checkout lane at a retail
store.
3. The temperature of a cup of coffee served at a restaurant.
4. The air pressure of a tire on an automobile.
5. The number of students who actually register for classes at a
university next semester.

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Exercise 1
Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous
1. The number of applicants for a job. Discrete
2. The time between customers entering a checkout lane at a retail
store. Continuous
3. The temperature of a cup of coffee served at a restaurant.
Continuous
4. The air pressure of a tire on an automobile.Continuous
5. The number of students who actually register for classes at a
university next semester. Discrete
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Exercise 2
Determine whether or not the table is a valid probability distribution of
a discrete random variable. Explain fully.
• X = -2, 0, 2, 4. P(X=-2)=0.2, P(X=0) = 0.3, P(X=2) = 0.3, P(X=4)=0.2.

• X = 0, 1, -1. P(X=0) = 0.3, P(X=1) = -0.0001, P(X=-1) = 0.7001.

• X= 1, 2, 3. P(X=1) = 0.2, P(X=2) = 0.2. P(X=3)= 0.2.

• X= 1, 2, 3, 4. P(X=1) = 0.2, P(X=2) = 0.2. P(X=3)= 0.2 P(X=4)= 0.5.

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Exercise 2
Determine whether or not the table is a valid probability distribution of a
discrete random variable. Explain fully.
• X = -2, 0, 2, 4. P(X=-2)=0.2, P(X=0) = 0.3, P(X=2) = 0.3, P(X=4)=0.2.
Yes.
• X = 0, 1, -1. P(X=0) = 0.3, P(X=1) = -0.0001, P(X=-1) = 0.7001.
No. Because P(X=1)<0.
• X= 1, 2, 3. P(X=1) = 0.2, P(X=2) = 0.2. P(X=3)= 0.2.
No. Because P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)=0.6<1.
• X= 1, 2, 3, 4. P(X=1) = 0.2, P(X=2) = 0.2. P(X=3)= 0.2 P(X=4)= 0.5.
No. Because P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)=1.1>1.
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Exercise 3
A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution:

X = 1, 3, 4, 70, 80, 90.

P(X=1) = 0.1, P(X=3)= 0.2, P(X=4) = 0.1, P(X=70)= 0.3, P(X=80) = 0.2.

What is P(X=90)?
What is P(X<70)?
What is P(70≤X<90)?
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Exercise 3
A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution:

X = 1, 3, 4, 70, 80, 90.

P(X=1) = 0.1, P(X=3)= 0.2, P(X=4) = 0.1, P(X=70)= 0.3, P(X=80) = 0.2.
What is P(X=90)?
P(X=90) = 1-P(X=1)-P(X=3)-P(X=4)-P(X=70)-P(X=80)=0.1
What is P(X<70)? P(X<70)=P(X=1)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)=0.4
What is P(90>X≥70)?
P(90>X≥70)=P(X=70)+P(X=80)=0.3+0.2=0.5 31
Exercise 4
• A standard dice (骰 ) has six sides printed with little dots numbering
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Assume that the dice is fair, i.e., each of these
outcomes is equally likely. Since there are six possible outcomes, the
probability of obtaining any side of the dice is 1/6. Now you are
throwing the dice for three times. What is the probability that at least
two throws have the same outcome?

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子
Exercise 4
• A standard dice (骰 ) has six sides printed with little dots numbering
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Assume that the dice is fair, i.e., each of these
outcomes is equally likely. Since there are six possible outcomes, the
probability of obtaining any side of the dice is 1/6. Now you are
throwing the dice for three times. What is the probability that at least
two throws have the same outcome?
• Solution: We are required to calculate P(A), where A stands for the
event that “at least two throws have the same outcome”. Then event
~A is “all three throws have different outcomes”, and we have P(~A) =
(6*5*4)/(6*6*6) = 5/9. So that P(A) = 1 - P(~A) = 4/9.
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子
Exercise 5
• We are in the process of fine-tuning the parameters of a machine learning
algorithm, specifically two parameters: w1 and w2. It is established that
both w1 and w2 follow a uniform distribution within the range [0,1]. In
order for the algorithm to function optimally, it is crucial that the
difference between w1 and w2 does not exceed 1/4 (0.25). Now, the
question arises: What is the probability of the algorithm successfully
meeting this criterion and working effectively?

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Exercise 5 w2

• Two parameters: w1 and w2:

1
• 0 ≤ w1, w2 ≤ 1.
• |w1 – w2| ≤ 1/4.

0.25

• P(|w1 – w2| ≤ 1/4) / P(0 ≤ w1, w2 ≤ 1) 0 0.25 1

= 1 – (3/4)2 = 7/16 w1

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Exercise 6
• Given a line segment AD, we select two points, B and C, on AD. Here, B and
C are independently and uniformly distributed along AD. We then break
the line segment at points B and C, resulting in three new line segments.
The task is to determine the probability of these three new line segments
being able to form a triangle.

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Exercise 6
• Given a line segment AD, we select two points, B and C, on AD. Here, B and C are
independently and uniformly distributed along AD. We then break the line segment
at points B and C, resulting in three new line segments. The task is to determine the
probability of these three new line segments being able to form a triangle.
• Solution: Assume that the coordinates of A, B, C, D are 0, x, y, 1, respectively. y
Here we have 0 ≤ x, y ≤ 1.
• Let’s first assume x < y. Then the three new segments are AB, BC, and CD. Their 1
lengths are x, y-x, 1-y. To form a triangle, the following three inequalities should
be satisfied:
• |AB| + |BC| > |CD|, |AB| + |CD| > |BC|, |BC| + |CD| > |AB|,
• x + (y-x) > 1-y, x + (1-y) > y-x, (y-x) + (1-y) > x ➔ y > 1/2, y-x < 1/2, x <
1/2.
• P(x < y and form a triangle) = 1/8. 0.25
• Similarly, we have P(x > y and form a triangle) = 1/8.
x
• So P(new line segments being able to form a triangle) = 1/4. 0 0.25 1
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Joint Distribution
• In some practice case, we need to consider multiple randon variables

For example, it is clear that the weight is related to the height. So we

are interested in knowing the joint distribution related to dog’s weight
and height.

• If random variables X, Y are discrete random variables, then the joint

distribution of X and Y is
P(X=x, Y=y)
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Joint Distribution
• If random variables X, Y are continuous random variables, then the joint
distribution of X and Y is
P(a1≤X≤b1, a2≤Y≤b2)
• In fact, when X, Y are continuous random variables, there exists a
probability density function for the joint distribution:

1 2

∫ ∫
P(a1≤X≤b1, a2≤Y≤b2)= XY(x,y)dxdy,
1 2

where XY(x,y) is the probability density function.

𝑎
𝑎
𝑝
39
𝑝
𝑏
𝑏
Joint Distribution

• If X represents the weight of dog and Y represents the height of dog,

then the joint distribuion P(X,Y) is similar to a two-dimensional Gaussian
distribution.

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Marginal Distribution

• Using joint distribution, we can construct marginal distribution:

• If random variables X, Y are discrete random variables, then the

marginal distributions are

∑
P(X=x) = P(X = x, Y = y)
y

∑
P(Y=y) = P(X = x, Y = y)
x
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Marginal Distribution

• If random variables X and Y are continuous random variables, then the marginal
distribution with respect to X is
+∞

∫ ∫−∞
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = XY(x, y) y x
and the density function of X is
+∞

∫−∞ XY(x, y)
(x) = y

Similarly, we can obtain the marginal distribution with respect to Y and the
density function of Y.
𝑎
𝑝
𝑑
𝑑
𝑝
𝑑
42
𝑝
𝑏
Joint Probability and Marginal Probability : An Example

X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)
• Joint probabilities can involve any
number of variables 0 0 0 0.1

0 0 1 0.2
• For each combination of variables, we
need to say how probable that 0 1 0 0.05
combination is 0 1 1 0.05
• The probabilities of these combinations 1 0 0 0.3
need to sum to 1
1 0 1 0.1
• Once you have the joint probability 1 1 0 0.05
distribution, you can calculate any
1 1 1 0.15
probability involving X, Y, and Z
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 Joint Probability and Marginal Probability: An Example
▫ P(X=1, Y =1)?
▫ = P(X=1, Y = 1, Z = 1) + P(X=1, Y = 1, Z = 0) = X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)
0.2
0 0 0 0.1
▫ P(X=1, Y = 0)? 0 0 1 0.2
▫ = P(X=1, Y = 0, Z = 1) + P(X=1, Y = 0, Z= 0) = 0.4
0 1 0 0.05
▫ P(X=1)? 0 1 1 0.05
▫ = P(X=1, Y = 1) + P(X=1, Y = 0)
=0.6 1 0 0 0.3

1 0 1 0.1

• Exercise 7: Try to calculate the following by 1 1 0 0.05

yourself
1 1 1 0.15
▫ P(Y= 1)

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 Joint Probability and Marginal Probability: An Example
• Solution:
X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)
P(Y=1) = P(X=1,Y=1,Z=1)+
0 0 0 0.1
P(X=0,Y=1,Z=1)+
0 0 1 0.2
P(X=1,Y=1,Z=0)+
0 1 0 0.05
P(X=0,Y=1,Z=0) 0 1 1 0.05
= 0.15+0.05+0.05+0.05 1 0 0 0.3
= 0.3 1 0 1 0.1

1 1 0 0.05

1 1 1 0.15

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Conditional Probability
X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)

0 0 0 0.1
• Given an event E and an event F,
0 0 1 0.2
the condition probability of E given F is
0 1 0 0.05

0 1 1 0.05
P(E ∩ F)
P(E|F) = 1 0 0 0.3
P(F) 1 0 1 0.1

1 1 0 0.05
• P(X=1 | Y=1) = P(X = 1, Y = 1) / P(Y = 1) 1 1 1 0.15
= 0.2/0.3= 2/3

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Conditional Distribution
• Conditional distributions seek to answer the question, what is the
probability distribution over Y , when we know that X must take on a
certain value x.

If X and Y are discrete random variables, then

P(Y = y|X=x)= P(X=x,Y=y)/P(X=x)

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Conditional Distribution
P(X=1 | Y=1) = P(X = 1, Y = 1) / P(Y = 1) = 0.2/0.3= 2/3
X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)

0 0 0 0.1

0 0 1 0.2
P(Z=0 | X=1) = P(X = 1, Z = 0) / P(X = 1) = 0.35/0.6= 7/12
0 1 0 0.05

0 1 1 0.05

1 0 0 0.3
Exercise 8: Try the calculate the following by yourself:
1 0 1 0.1
P(Z=0|X=1, Y=1)?
P(Y=0|X=1, Z=1)? 1 1 0 0.05

1 1 1 0.15

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Conditional Distribution

• Solution X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)
P(X=1,Y=1) = P(X=1,Y=1,Z=1)+P(X=1,Y=1,Z=0)
0 0 0 0.1
= 0.15+0.05=0.2
0 0 1 0.2
P(Z=0|X=1,Y=1) = P(X=1,Y=1,Z=0)/P(X=1,Y=1)
= 0.05/0.2=1/4 0 1 0 0.05

0 1 1 0.05

P(X=1,Z=1) = P(X=1,Y=1,Z=1)+P(X=1,Y=0,Z=1) 1 0 0 0.3

= 0.15+0.1=0.25 1 0 1 0.1
P(Y=0|X=1,Z=1) = P(X=1,Y=0,Z=1)/P(X=1,Z=1) 1 1 0 0.05
= 0.1/0.25= 2/5
1 1 1 0.15

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Conditional Distribution
• If X and Y are continuous random variables, then
1 2 1

∫ ∫ ∫
P(a2 ≤ Y ≤ b2 | a1 ≤ X ≤ b1) = XY(x,y)dydx / X(x)dx,
1 2 1

If X( ) > 0, then P(Y|X=x) is a continuous distribution with probability

density function
Y|X(y | x) = XY(x,y)/ X(x)
𝑎
𝑎
𝑎
𝑝
𝑝
50
𝑝
𝑝
𝑥
𝑝
𝑝
𝑏
𝑏
𝑏
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Chain Rule of Conditional Probabilities

• Given n events E1, E2,...,En
P(E1 ∩ E2) = P(E2|E1) P(E1);
P(E1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3) = P(E3 ∩ E2|E1)P(E1)=P(E3|E2 ∩ E1)P(E2|E1)P(E1)

...........

∏
P(E1 ∩ E2.... ∩ En) = P(E1) P(Ei | E1 ∩ E2 ∩ … ∩ Ei−1)
i=2

Above equation is called chain rule.

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Chain Rule of Conditional Probabilities
• Chain rule with respect to random variables
Given random variables X1, …, Xn
n
P(X1, …, Xn) = P(X1) P(Xi | X1, …, Xi−1)
∏
i=2
Calculate P(Z=1|X=1, Y=1): X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)
0 0 0 0.1
P(X=1, Y=1, Z=1) =0.15; 0 0 1 0.2
P(X=1) = 0.6; 0 1 0 0.05
P(Y=1|X=1)= 1/3; 0 1 1 0.05
By chain rule, we obtain that 1 0 0 0.3
1 0 1 0.1
P(Z=1|X=1, Y=1)
1 1 0 0.05
= P(X=1, Y=1, Z=1)/(P(Y=1|X=1)P(X=1))
1 1 1 0.15
= 0.15/0.2 = 3/4
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Chain Rule of Conditional Probabilities
Calculate P(Z=1|X=0, Y=1) X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)

0 0 0 0.1
P(X=0, Y=1, Z=1) =0.05;
0 0 1 0.2
P(X=0) = 0.4;
P(Y=1|X=0)= 0.1/0.4=1/4; 0 1 0 0.05

0 1 1 0.05
By chain rule, we obtain that 1 0 0 0.3

1 0 1 0.1
P(Z=1|X=0, Y=1)
1 1 0 0.05
= P(X=0, Y=1, Z=1)/(P(Y=1|X=0)P(X=0))
= 0.05/0.1 = 1/2 1 1 1 0.15

53
Chain Rule of Conditional Probabilities
X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)

Exercise 9: Please use chain rule to compute 0 0 0 0.1

0 0 1 0.2

P(Z=1|X=0,Y=0) 0 1 0 0.05

0 1 1 0.05

1 0 0 0.3

1 0 1 0.1

1 1 0 0.05

1 1 1 0.15

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Chain Rule of Conditional Probabilities
• Solution X Y Z P(X,Y,Z)

0 0 0 0.1
P(X=0, Y=0, Z=1) =0.2; 0 0 1 0.2
P(X=0) = 0.4;
0 1 0 0.05
P(Y=0|X=0)= (0.1+0.2)/0.4=3/4;
0 1 1 0.05

1 0 0 0.3
By chain rule, we obtain that
1 0 1 0.1

P(Z=1|X=0, Y=0) 1 1 0 0.05

= P(X=0, Y=0, Z=1)/(P(Y=0|X=0)P(X=0)) 1 1 1 0.15

= 0.2/0.3 = 2/3
55
Exercise 10
• A standard die has six sides printed with little dots numbering 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 6. Assume that the die is fair, i.e., each of these outcomes is equally
likely. Since there are six possible outcomes, the probability of obtaining any
side of the die is 1/6. Now Bob is throwing the dice for three times. Assume
that event A is “The outcome of the first throw is 1” and event B is “The
summation of outcomes of three throws is no less than 10”. Calculate P(B|
A) and show the detailed calculation procedure.

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Exercise 10
• A standard die has six sides printed with little dots numbering 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Assume
that the die is fair, i.e., each of these outcomes is equally likely. Since there are six possible
outcomes, the probability of obtaining any side of the die is 1/6. Now Bob is throwing the
dice for three times. Assume that event A is “The outcome of the first throw is 1” and
event B is “The summation of outcomes of three throws is no less than 10”. Calculate P(B|
A) and show the detailed calculation procedure.
• Solution: P(B|A) = P(A,B)/P(A).
• Then event (A and B) is “The outcome of the first throw is 1 and (at the same time) the
summation of outcomes of three throws is no less than 10”, which is equivalent to “The
outcome of the first throw is 1 and the summation of outcomes of the second and the
third throws is no less than 9”.
• There are 10 situations that satisfy this condition: (outcome of the second throw, outcome
of the third throw) = (3,6), (4,5), (4,6), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6).
• We also know that there are 6*6 = 36 situations of the second and the third throws.
Therefore, P(B|A) = P(A,B)/P(A) = 10/36 = 5/18.
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Thank You!

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