MIS1122 Introduction to Probability and

Statistics

Leslie Jayasekara
Senior Professor in Mathematics
Department of Mathematics
Faculty of Science
University of Ruhuna

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MIS1122 Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Scheduled Time
▶ Lecture : Wednesday 9.00am - 10.55am

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References

1. Probability & Statistics for Engineers & Scientists,

9th Edition
Ronald E. Walpole
Raymond H. Myers
Sharon L. Myers and Keying Ye
2. Mathematical Statistics with Applications
Dinnis D. Wackerly
William Mendenhall
Richard L. Scheaffer

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What is Statistics?

Statistics
Statistics is the science of collecting, analyzing, presenting,
and interpreting data, as well as of making decisions based on
such analyses.

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Type of Statistics

Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics consists of methods for organizing,
displaying, and describing data by using tables, graphs, and
summary measures.

Inferential Statistics
Inferential statistics consists of methods that use sample results
to help make decisions or predictions about a population.

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Population and Sample

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Population and Sample

Population
The entire collection of individuals or objects about which
information is desired is called the population of interest.

Sample
A portion of the population selected for study is referred to as a
sample.

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Random Sample
A sample drawn in such a way that each element of the
population has a chance of being selected is called a random
sample.

Simple Random Sample

If all samples of the same size selected from a population have
the same chance of being selected, we call it simple random
sampling. Such a sample is called a simple random sample.

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Population Versus Sample

A sample may be selected with or without replacement.

with replacement
Sampling with replacement, each time we select an element
from the population, we put it back in the population before we
select the next element.

without replacement
Sampling without replacement occurs when the selected
element is not replaced in the population.

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Census and Sample Survey

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Census and Sample Survey
A survey that includes every member of the population is called
a census. The technique of collecting information from a
portion of the population is called a sample survey.

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Some Basic Concepts

A statistical problem involves studying one or more

characteristics associated with a group of objects, called
individual units or subjects.

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Variables and Data sets

A variable is any characteristic that can be measured on each

individual unit in a statistical study.

The complete collection of values (called observations)

associated with the variables in the study is called a data set.

Data sets are called uni-variate, bi-variate or multivariate

depending on whether one, two, or more than two variables are
listed.

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Variable Classification

Categorical Variable
A categorical variable (also called qualitative variable) is a
variable whose values are classifications or categories.

Numerical Variable
A numerical variable (also called a quantitative variable) is a
variable whose values are numbers obtained from a count or
measurement.

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Variable Classification Cont..

Numerical variables are either discrete or continuous.

Discrete Variable
A variable whose values are countable is called a discrete
variable.

Continuous Variable
A variable that can assume any numerical value over a certain
interval is called a continuous variable

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Types of Data

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Example
Classify the following as either categorical or numerical. If
numerical, further classify as discrete or continuous.
a. Age of students entering university
b. Education level of a person
c. Number of children in a family

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Solution
a. Age is a measurement of time and hence is numerical. It is
continuous variable.
b. Education level is a categorical variable.
c. The number of children is a count and it is a discrete
variable.

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Basic Probability Concepts

Introduction
One of the most important goals of statistics is to make
inference about a population from the information contained in
a sample. Once an inference is made, we must measure the
reliability of that inference. This is accomplished with
probability.

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Experiment

An experiment is the process of making an observation or

taking a measurement.
Experiment
Experimental Outcome
1. Toss a Coin
1. Head, Tail
2. Select a good for
2. Defective, non-defective
inspection
3. Purchase, no purchase
3. Conduct a sales call
4. 1,2,3,4,5,6
4. Roll a die
5. win, lose, tie
5. Play a football game

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Sample space

The collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment is

called the sample space, S.

▶ S = {Head, Tail}
▶ S = {Defective, Non-defective}
▶ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
▶ If the experiment is weighing a person, the sample space
(assuming no one weighs more than 60 kilograms) is

S = {x|x is a real number between 0 and 60}

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Event

▶ Any subset of the sample space is called an event.

▶ An event is said to have occurred if any one of its
elements is the outcome when the experiment is
conducted.
In the die rolling experiment, the event A that an odd number
occurs is A = {1, 3, 5}. The event A occurs if, when the die is
rolled, any one of the three possibilities 1, 3, or 5 comes up.

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Complement of event A

The complement of event A is the collection of all outcomes

in the sample space that are not in A. It denotes as A′ .

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Intersection of Two Events

A ∩ B is the event that both A and B occur simultaneously.

Example
Let x be DBP (Diastolic Blood Pressure), A be the event that
x ≥ 90, and B be the event that 75 ≤ x ≤ 100. That is
A = {x ≥ 90} and B = {75 ≤ x ≤ 100}
then
A ∩ B = {90 ≤ x ≤ 100}

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Mutually Exclusive Events

Definition
Two events that have no common outcomes are said to be
disjoint or mutually exclusive.

Two events A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive if and only if

A1 ∩ A2 = ϕ.

Events A1 , A2 , A3 · · · are mutually exclusive if and only if

Ai ∩ Aj = ϕ for i ̸= j.

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Mutually Exclusive Events

Example
The events A and B are not mutually exclusive, since they both
occur when 90 ≤ x ≤ 100.

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Union of the two events

A ∪ B is the event that either A or B occurs or they both occur.

Example
Let A = {x < 90}, and B = {90 ≤ x ≤ 95}, where x=DBP. Then

A ∪ B = {x ≤ 95}

Example
Let A = {x ≥ 90} and B = {75 ≤ x ≤ 100}
then A ∪ B = {x ≥ 75}.

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Probability Types

There are three methods for assigning probabilities. Those are

1. Classical method
2. Relative frequency method and
3. Subjective method

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Definition of Probability

Classical Approach to Probability

When the outcomes in the sample space of a random
experiment are mutually exclusive and equally likely, the
probability of an event E, denoted by P(E), given by,

number of outcomes favorable to E

P(E) = .
number of outcomes in the sample space

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Example
* If an ordinary die is tossed, there are six possible
outcomes - 1,2,3,4,5 or 6.
These six outcomes are mutually exclusive since two or
more faces cannot be turn up simultaneously.
* If the die is fair, the six outcomes are equally likely.
The probability that an even number will appear when a die is
tossed is 63 or 12 .

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Lets consider the following questions.

1. What is the probability that a child born in the Matara

hospital will be a boy?
2. What is the probability that a male will die before age 50?

We cannot see ”Symmetry” or ”equally likely” etc. in those

questions.

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Relative Frequency Approach to Probability

Definition
The probability of an event E, denoted by P(E) , is defined to
be the value approached by the relative frequency of
occurrence of E in a very long series of trials of a random
experiment. Thus, if the number of trials is quite large,

number of times E occurs

P(E) =
number of trials

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Relative Frequency Approach to Probability

Example
Tossing a coin. Let H be the event that the coin lands with its
heads side facing up.

number of times event H occurs

P(E) =
number of tosses

Toss 10 50 100 150 200

Cumulative number of H’s 7 26 48 74 111
Relative frequency of H’s 0.7 0.52 0.48 0.49 0.56

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Relative Frequency Approach to Probability

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Subjective Approach to Probability

It involves personal judgments, information, intuition and other

subjective evaluation criteria.

Example
A physician assesses the probability of patient’s recovery. This
is a personal judgment based on his feeling about the situation.
So subjective probability is also called Personal Probability.

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Axioms of Probability
Whatever the kind of probability involved, the set of
mathematical rules must be satisfied for manipulating and
analyzing probability.
Definition
Suppose S is a sample space associated with an experiment.
To every event A in S ( A is a subset of S) we assign a number,
P(A), called the probability of A, so that the following axioms
hold:
Axiom 1: P(A) ≥ 0.
Axiom 2: P(S)=1.
Axiom 3: If A1 , A2 , A3 , · · · , form a sequence of pairwise
mutually exclusive events in S (that is, Ai ∩ Aj = 0 if i ̸= j), then

P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ · · · ) = P(A1 ) + P(A2 ) + P(A3 ) + · · · .

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The Additive Law of Probability

Let A and B any two events. Then

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

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The Additive Law of Probability

Example
Consider the data given in previous example. suppose a patient
is referred for further lab tests if either A or B makes a positive
diagnosis. What is the probability that a patient will be referred
for further lab tests?

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The Additive Law of Probability

Solution
The event that either doctor makes a positve diagnosis can be
represented by {A+ ∪ B + }. We know that

P(A+ ) = .1, P(B + ) = .17 P(A+ ∩ B + ) = .08

Therefore, from the additive law of probability ,

P(A+ ∪ B + ) = P(A+ ) + P(B + ) − P(A+ ∩ B + )

= .1 + .17 − .08
= .19

Thus, 19% of all patients will be referred for further lab tests.

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The Additive Law of Probability

Example
John is going to graduate by the end of this year. After being
interviewed at two companies, he assesses that his probability
of getting an offer from company A is 0.8, and his probability of
getting an offer from company B is 0.6. If he believes that the
probability that he will get offers from both companies is 0.5,
what is the probability that he will get at least one offer from
these two companies?

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The Additive Law of Probability

Example
Using the additive rule, we have

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

= 0.8 + 0.6 − 0.5
= 0.9

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The Additive Law of Probability

The Probability of the union of two events A and B is

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).

If A and B are mutually exclusive events P(A ∩ B) = 0 and

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).

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Complement Law

The Complement Law

Let A be an event with probability denoted by P(A). Then

P(A′ ) = 1 − P(A)

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Complement Law

Example
Let A = {x < 90} and C = {x ≥ 90}
then, C = A′ , since C can only occur when A does not occur.

P(C) = P(A′ ) = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3

Thus, if 70% of pepole have DBP< 90, then 30% of people

must have DBP ≥ 90.

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Independent Events

Events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence

of A does not affect the probability of the occurrence of B.

Definition
Two events A and B are referred to as independent events if

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

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Independent Events

Example
Suppose two doctors, A and B, diagnose all patients coming
into their clinic for a certain disease. let the events
A+ = {Dr. A makes a positive diagnosis},
B + = {Dr. B makes a positive diagnosis}.
Suppose that Dr. A diagnoses 10% of all patients as positive,
Dr. B diagnose 17% of all patients as positive, and both doctors
diagnose 8% of all patients as positive. Are the events A+
and B + independent?

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Independent Events

Solution
We are given that

P(A+ ) = 0.1 P(B + ) = 0.17 P(A+ ∩ B + ) = 0.08

Thus

P(A+ ∩ B + ) = 0.08 > P(A+ ) × P(B + ) = 0.1 × 0.17 = 0.017

The events are dependent.

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Example
Example
Suppose that a desktop computer system consists of a monitor,
a mouse, a keyboard, the computer processor itself, and
storage devices such as disk drive. Purchasers of new
computer systems are advised to run their computer on as
soon as they are purchased and then to let them run for a few
hours to see if any problem crop up.
Let
E1 = event that a newly purchased monitor operates properly
E2 = event that a newly purchased mouse operates properly
E3 = event that a newly purchased disk drive operates properly
E4 = event that a newly purchased computer processor operates p

Suppose that four events are independent, with

P(E1 ) = P(E2 ) = 0.98 P(E3 ) = 0.95 P(E4 ) = 0.99

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Example
The probability that all these components operate properly is
then

P(E1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 ∩ E4 ) = P(E1 )P(E2 )P(E3 )P(E4 )

= (0.98)(0.98)(0.94)(0.99)
= 0.89

We interptret this probability as follows: In the long run, 89% of

such systems will run properly when tested shortly after
purchase.

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Example
The probability that all components except the monitor will run
properly is

P(E1C ∩ E2 ∩ E3 ∩ E4 ) = P(E1C )P(E2 )P(E3 )P(E4 )

= (1 − P(E1 ))P(E2 )P(E3 )P(E4 )
= (0.02)(0.98)(0.94)(0.99)
= 0.018

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Example
A group of executives is classified according to the status of
body weight and incidence of hypertension. The proportions in
the various categories appear in the following table.

Overweight Normal Weight Underweight Total

Hypertensive 10 8 2 20
Not hypertensive 15 45 20 80
Total 25 53 22 100

(a) What is the probability that a person selected at random

from this group will have hypertension?
(b) A person, selected at random from this group, is found to
be overweight. What is the probability that this person is
also hypertensive?

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Solution
Let A denote the event that a person is hypertensive, and let B
denote the event that a person is overweight.
20
(a) P(A) = 100 = 0.2
10
(b) 25 = 0.4
This probability is denoted as P(A|B). It is called
conditional probability of A given B

Noting that P(A ∩ B) = 0.1 and P(B) = 0.25

We have derived P(A|B) by taking the ratio P(A∩B)
P(B) .

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Conditional Probability

Definition
The conditional probability of an event A given that an event B
has occurred, is equal to

P(A ∩ B)
P(A|B) =
P(B)

provided P(B) > 0.

The symbol P(A|B) is read ”Probability of A given B”

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Example
Suppose that a balanced die is tossed once. Find the
probability of a 1, given that an odd number was obtained.

Solution
A: observe a 1.
B: observe an odd number.
P(A) =1/6
P(B)=1/2
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) = 1/6

P(A ∩ B) 1/6 1
P(A|B) = = =
P(B) 1/2 3

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Exercise
Is ultrasound a reliable method for determining the gender of an
unborn baby? The following data on 1000 births are consistent
with summary values that appeared in the online version of the
Journal of Statistics Education.
Ultrasound Ultrasound
Predicted Predicted
Female Male
Actual Gender is
Female 432 48
Actual Gender is
Male 130 390

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Exercise
(a) Use the given information to estimate the probability that a
newborn baby is female, given that the ultrasound
predicted the baby would be female.
(b) Use the given information to estimate the probability that a
newborn baby is male, given that the ultrasound predicted
the baby would be male.
(c) Based on your answers to Parts (a) and (b), do you think
ultrasound is equally reliable for predicting gender for boys
and for girls? Explain.

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The Multiplicative Law of Probability

The probability of the intersection of two events A and B is

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A)
= P(B)P(A|B)

If A and B are independent, then

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B).

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Extended Multiplicative Law

The multiplicative law can be extended.

▶

P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P[(A ∩ B) ∩ C]
= P(A ∩ B)P(C|A ∩ B)
= P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A ∩ B).

P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ · · · ∩ Ak ) = P(A1 )P(A2 |A1 )P(A3 |A1 ∩ A2 )

· · · P(Ak |A1 ∩ A2 ∩ · · · ∩ Ak−1 )

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The Additive Law of Probability

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P[A ∪ (B ∪ C)]

= P(A) + P(B ∪ C) − P[A ∩ (B ∪ C)]
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(B ∩ C) − P[(A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C)]
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(B ∩ C) − P(A ∩ B)
−P(A ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

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The Law of Total Probability

Definition (Partition)
For some positive integer k, let sets B1 , B2 , · · · , Bk be such that
1. S = B1 ∪ B2 ∪ · · · ∪ Bk
2. Bi ∩ Bj = ϕ for i ̸= j.
Then the collection of sets {B1 , B2 , · · · , Bk } is said to be a
partition of S.

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The Law of Total Probability

Theorem
Assume that {B1 , B2 , · · · , Bk } is a partition of S such that
P(Bi ) > 0 for i = 1, 2, · · · , k. Then for any event A
k
X
P(A) = P(A|Bi )P(Bi ).
i=1

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Proof.
Any subset A of S can be written as

A = A∩S
= A ∩ (B1 ∪ B2 ∪ · · · ∪ Bk )
= (A ∩ B1 ) ∪ (A ∩ B2 ) ∪ · · · ∪ (A ∩ Bk ).

Because {B1 , B2 , · · · , Bk } is a partition of S, if i ̸= j,

(A ∩ Bi ) ∩ (A ∩ Bj ) = A ∩ (Bi ∩ Bj ) = A ∩ ϕ = ϕ

and that (A ∩ Bi ) and (A ∩ Bj ) are mutually exclusive events.

Thus,

P(A) = P(A ∩ B1 ) + P(A ∩ B2 ) + · · · + P(A ∩ Bk )

= P(A|B1 )P(B1 ) + P(A|B2 )P(B2 ) + · · · + P(A|Bk )P(Bk )
k
X
= P(A|Bi )P(Bi ).
i=1
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Example
The completion of a construction job may be delayed because
of a strike. The probabilities are 0.6 that there will be a strike,
0.85 that the construction job will be completed on time if there
is no strike, and 0.35 that the construction job will be completed
on time if there is a strike. What is the probability that the
construction job will be completed on time?

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Solution
If A is the event that the construction job will be completed on
time and B is the event that there will be a strike.
P(B)=0.6 P(A|B ′ ) = 0.85 P(A|B) = 0.35

P(A) = P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|B ′ )P(B ′ )

= 0.6 × 0.35 + 0.4 × 0.85
= 0.55

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Theorem (Bayes’ Rule)
Assume that {B1 , B2 , · · · , Bk } is a partition of S such that
P(Bi ) > 0 for i = 1, 2, · · · , k. Then

P(A|Bj )P(Bj )
P(Bj |A) = Pk .
i=1 P(A|Bi )P(Bi )

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Proof.
The proof follows directly from the definition of conditional
probability and the law of total probability.

P(A ∩ Bj ) P(A|Bj )P(Bj )

P(Bj |A) = = Pk .
P(A) i=1 P(A|Bi )P(Bi )

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Example
Consider a test for an illness. The test has a known reliability:
1. when it is applied to an ill person, the test will indicate so
with probability 0.92.
2. when it is applied to a person who is not ill, the test will
erroneously give a positive result with probability 0.04.
Suppose that the illness is rare and is known to affect only
0.1% of the entire population. If a person is randomly selected
from the entire population and is given the test and the result is
positive, what is the probability that the person is ill?

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Solution
Let Z denote the event that the test result is positive and I the
event that the person tasted is ill.
P(I)=0.001 P(I) = 0.999
P(Z |I) = 0.92 P(Z |I) = 0.04

P(Z |I)P(I)
P(I|Z ) =
P(Z |I)P(I) + P(Z |I)P(I)
(0.92)(0.001)
=
(0.92)(0.001) + (0.04)(0.999)
= 0.0225

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