PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION Suppose a coin is tossed. The toss may result in the occurrence of 'Head' or in the occurrence of 'Tail'. Here, the chances of head and tail are equal*. In other words, the probability of occurrence of head is and the probability of occurrence of tail is Thus, Probability is a numerical measure which indicates the chance of occurrence. There are three systematic approaches to the study of probability. They are 1. The classical approach 2. The empirical approach. 3. The axiomatic approach. Each of these approaches has its own merits and demerits. Chance has a part to play in almost all activities. In every such activity, there is indefiniteness. For example, 1. 2. 3. A new-born child may be male or female. A stone aimed at a mango on a tree may hit it or it may not. A student who takes P.U.C. examination may score any mark Between 0 and 100.

In the midst of such indefiniteness, predictions are made. This necessitates a systematic study of probabilistic happenings.

Probability defined The probability of a given event is an expression of likelihood or chance of occurrence of an event. A probability is a number which ranges from 0 to 1. Zero for an event cannot occur and 1 for an event certain occurs. Terminology Before discussing procedure for calculating probability it is under different approaches. It is necessary to define certain terms as given below I. RANDOM EXPERIMENT

Random experiment is an experiment which may not result in the same outcome when repeated under the same conditions. It is an experiment which does not have a unique outcome.

 An event which may or may not occur. While performing a certain random experiment is known as random experiment. For example, 1. The experiment of 'Toss of a coin' is a random experiment. It is so because when a coin is tossed the result may be 'Head' or it may be 'Tail'. 2. The experiment of 'Drawing a card randomly from a pack of playing cards' is a random experiment. Here, the result of the draw may be any one of the 52 cards.

II.

SAMPLE SPACE

The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is the Sample space. The sample space is denoted by S. The outcomes of the random experiment (elements of the sample space) are called sample points or outcomes or cases. A sample space with finite number of outcomes is a finite sample space. A sample space with infinite number of outcomes is an infinite sample space. Ex1. While throwing a die, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. This is a finite sample space. Ex2. While tossing two coins simultaneously, the sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}. This is a finite sample space. Ex3. Consider the toss of a coin successively until a head is obtained. Let the number of tosses be noted. Here, the sample space is S= {1, 2, 3, 4....}.This is an infinite sample space.

III.

EVENT

Even is a subset of the sample space. Events are denoted by A, B, C etc. An event which does not contains any outcome is a null event (impossible event). It is denoted by . An event which has only one outcome is an ELEMENTARY EVENT OR SAMPLE EVENT. An event which has more than outcome is a compound event. An event which contains all the outcomes is equal to the sample and it is called sure event or certain event. Ex.1. While throwing a die, A={2,4,6} is an events. It is the event that the throw results in an even number. Here, A is a compound event. Ex.2. While tossing two coins, A={TT} is an event. It is the event that the toss results in two tails. Here, A is a simple event.

The outcomes which belong to an event are said to be favourable to that event. The event happens whenever the experiment results in a favourable outcomes . Otherwise, the event does not happen While throwing a die, the event A = {2,4,6} has three favourable outcomes, namely, 2,4 and 6. Where the throw results in 2,4 or 6, event A occurs.

COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
Let A be an event. Then, Complement of A is the event of non-occurrence of A. It is the event constituted by the outcomes which are not favourable to A. The complement of A is denoted by A or or Ac. While throwing a die, If A = {2,4,6}, its complement is A = {1,3,5}. Here, A is the event that throw result in an even number. A is the event that throw does not result in an even number. That is, A is the event that throw result in an odd number.

SUB-EVENT.
Let A and B be two events such that event A occurs whenever event B occurs. Then, event B is sub-event of event A. While throwing a die, let A = {2,4,6} and B = {2}. Here, B is a sub-event of event A. That is, B A.

UNION OF EVENTS.
Definition: Union of two or more events is the event of occurrence of at least one of these events. Thus, union of two events A and B is the event of occurrence of at least one of them. The union of A&B is denoted by AB or A+B or AorB. Ex1. While tossing two coins simultaneously, let A = {HH} and B = {TT} be two events. Then, their union is AB = {HH, TT}. Here, A is the event of occurrence of two heads and B is the event of occurrence of two tails. Their union AB is the event of occurrence of two heads or two heads or two tails. Ex2. While throwing a die, let A = {2,4,6}, B = {3,6} and C = {4,5,6} be three events. Then, their union is AB C = {2,3,4,5,6}.

INTERSECTION OF EVENTS

Intersection of two or more events is the event of simultaneous occurrence of all these events. Thus, Intersection of two events A and B is the event of occurrence of both of them. The intersection of A and B is denoted by AB or AB or A and B. Ex1. While tossing two coins, let A = {HH,TT} B = {HH,HT,TH} be two events. Then, their intersection is AB = {HH}. Ex2. While throwing a die, let A = {2,4,6}, B = {3,6} and C = {4,5,6} be three events. Then, their intersection is ABC = {6}. EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS (Equiprobable events) Two or more events are equally likely if they have equal chance of occurrence. That is, equally likely events are such that none of them has greater chance of occurrence than the others. Ex. 1. While tossing a fair coin, the outcomes 'Head' and 'Tail' are equally likely. Ex.2. While throwing a fair die, the events A={2,4,6}, B = {1,3, 5}&C={ 1,2, 3} are equally likely. A sample space is called an equiprobable space if the outcomes are equally likely. For instance, the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} of throw of a fair die is equiprobable space because the six outcomes are equally likely.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS (Disjoint events) Two or more events are mutually exclusive if only one of them can occur at a time. That is, the occurrence of any of these events totally excludes the occurrence of the other events. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur together. Ex. 1. While tossing a coin, the outcomes 'Head1 and 'Tail' are mutually exclusive because when the coin is tossed once, the result cannot be Head as well as Tail. Ex.2. While throwing a die, the events A = {2, 4, 6}, B= {3,5} and C = {1} are mutually exclusive. If A is an event, A and A' are mutually exclusive. It should be noted that intersection of mutually exclusive events is a null event. EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS (Exhaustive set of events)

A set of events is exhaustive if one" or the other of the events in the set occurs whenever the experiment is conducted. That is, the set of events exhausts all the outcomes of the experiment The union of exhaustive events is equal to the sample space. Ex.1. While throwing a die, the six outcomes together are exhaustive. But here, if any one of these outcomes is leftout, the remaining five outcomes are not exhaustive. Ex.2. While throwing a die, events A = {2,4, 6},B = {3, 6} and C = {1,5,6} together are exhaustive.

THE CLASSICAL APPROACH

Limitations of classical definition: This definition is applicable only when (i) The outcomes are equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive. (ii) The number of outcomes n is finite.

RESULT 1 P(A) is a value between 0 and 1. That is, 0 < P(A) < 1. Proof: Let a random experiment have n equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes. Let m of these outcomes be favourable to event A. Then,P(A) =m n Here, the least possible value of m is 0. Also, the highest possible value of m is n. And so, 0 m n. 0 m n n n n 0 p ( A) 1

Thus, P(A) is a value between 0 and 1. RESULT 2 P(A') = 1 - P(A). That is, P(A) = 1 - P(A'). Proof: In a random experiment with n equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, if m outcomes are favourable to event A, the remaining (n-m) outcomes are favourable to the complementary event A'. Therefore,

Thus, P(A') = 1 - P(A). That is, P(A) = 1 - P(A').