Probability Concepts

Lesson Objectives: At the end of the module, each Student should be able to

1) analyze the usage of probability concepts

2) apply the distinct ways of assigning probability in different stated situations

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Instruction: Read and understand the probability concepts. You may ask questions and
clarifications to your advisers via email and Google hangout.

PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

We often make statements about probability. For example, a wheather forecast may predict that
there is 80% chance of rain tomorrow. A student may ask her instructor about the chance of
passing a course. Nothing makes a foot soldier more nervous than not being able to anticipate
the moves of his enemies.

Probability, which means the likehood that an event will occur is an important part of statistics.
It is the basis of inferential statistics where we make decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

 The Probability of sure occurence = 1 or 100%.

 If an event cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no outcome in the experiment), the
probability is zero.
 The range of probability values is from 0 to 100%.
 The sum of the individual probability of all possible outcomes or events in a statistical
experimentn is always equal to 1.
 The probabilitty that an outcome will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probabilitty that the
outcome will occur.

SOME PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

There are three distinct ways of assigning probability:

1. Classical Probability

Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in an experiment are equally like to occur. Such
equally likely outcomes have the same probability of occurence. The probability of a simple event
is equal to 1 divided by the total number of possible outcomes for the experiment.

Formula for Classical Probabilty

The probbility of any event E is

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P(E) = Number of outcomes in E
Total number of outcomes for the expirement

Example 1. What is the probability (Pr) of getting a head in one toss of a fair coin?

The total number of possible outcomes is 2 (i.e., either we get a head or a tail).
Hence,
P(Head) =1/2

Example 2. What is the probability of the number 5 turning up in one roll of a balanced die?

The total number of possible outcomes is 6 (i.e., the 6 faces of the die). Hence,

P(Number 5) = 1 /6

Example 3. From a group of 3 female and 19 male students, one student is chosen at random.
What is the probability that the chosen student is a femle?

P(Female) = 3 /22

Classical probability is also referred to as a prior probability because we can determine in

advance the probability of an event without tossing a coin or rolling a die. The probability can be
determined simply by logical reasoning without having to perform an experiment. This brings us
to the second notion of probability.

2. Empirical (or Relative Frequency) Probability

if an experiment is repeated n times and an event A is observed f times, then according to the
relative frequency concept of probability:

P ( A ) = F /N where f = frequency of occurrence

n = total frequency

Example 1. An examination is given to 40 students where 5 students got perfect score. What is
the probability that a student picked at random from the group is a student who got a perfect
score? Did not get a perfect score?

P (Perfect Score) = 5 / 40 = 0.125 or 12.5%

P (Not Perfect Score) = (40 – 5) / 40 = 35 / 40 = 0.875 or 87.5% 0r

= 1 – Pr (Perfect Score) = 1 -0.125 = 0.875

Example 2. A certain developing country’s statistics shows that for every 1,000 live births, 200
babies die soon after birth. What is the probability that a child born in this country dies soon after
birth?

P (Death after birth) = 200 / 1000 = 20%

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3. Subjective Probability

It is the probability assigned to an event based on subjective judgement, personal

experience, information, intuition, and even beliefs. It is what is sometimes reffered to
as an educated guess. The person evaluating the probability uses whatever evidence is
available and combines these with his peronal feelings about the event. The following questions,
for example, may entil the use of subjectve probabilities:

 What is the probability that a company’s new product will be accepted by the consumers?
 What is the probability that an athlete will win in that race?
 What is the probability that this candidate will win in the elections?
 What is the probability that Cadet 1C Hontoria will graduate this year from PMA?

Odds of an Event

Statisticians usually speak of probabilities rather than odds, but in sports and games of chance,
we often hear the word ‘odds’ quoted. We define the ‘odds in favor’ of an event A as the ratio of
the probability that event. A will occur to the probability that event A will not occur. Its reciprocal
is the ‘odds against’ event A. For example, if a race horse ha 4 to 1 odds against winning, this
is equavalent to saying that the odds-makers assign the horse a 20% chance of winning.

Some Laws of Probability

1. Addition Rule (for Outcomes That Cannot Occur at the same Time)

The probability of the occurence of any 2 or more mutually exclusive events is equal to the sum
of their separate probabilities. Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur at the sae
time.

P (Event A or Event B) = P(Event A) + P(Event B)

Example 1. In a deck of 52 cards, one card is randomly drawn. The probabiity that this
card is an ace or a king is equal to 4/52 + 4/52= 8/52.

Example 2. A day of the week is selected at random. What is the probability that it is a
weekend day?
P(Saturday or Sunday) = 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7

When 2 events are not mutually exclusive, we must subtract one of the two probabilities of
the outcomes that are common to both events, since they have been counted twice. To illustrate,
a single card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability that it is a king or a heart.
P(king or heart) =P(king) + P(heart) –P(king of hearts)
= 4/52 + 113/52 = 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13

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If A and B are not mutually exclusive events, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = P(A and B)

2. Multiplication Rule (for Independence Outcomes)

The probability of the simultaneous or successive occurence of 2 or more independent events

is equal to the product of their separate probabilities. Two events, A and B, are independent if
the occurence of one has no effect on the probability occurence of the other event.

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

For example,suppose we have a box containing 20 fuses, 5 of which are defective. If 2 fuses
are picked at random and removed from the box in seccession without replacing the first, what
is the probability that both fuses are defective?

Solution:
These are two dependent events, hence, we are looking at a case of conditional probability
because the probability of selecting the second defective fuse depends upon the outcome of the
first event/

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A) = (5/20) x (4/19) = 1/19

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ACTIVITY 5 WILLIAM L. ETRATA JR.
Name: ________________________

Test I True or false: Write T if the statement is true, F if false.

F 1. The probability that an outcome will occur is 1 plus the probability that it will not
____
occur.
T 2. All variables that are approximately normally distributed can be transformed to
____
standard normal variables
T 3. If the odds against the FEU Tamaraws in the next UAAP tournament is 1 to 4, its
____
probability of winning is 20%.
T 4. The area to the right of the mean in any normal curve is always 0.50..
____
____
F 5. Independent events cannot happen at the same time.
F 6. Getting an even number and getting a number less than 5 in one roll of a die are
____
two mutually exclusive events.
F 7. The probability of an event occurring is from -1 to 1.
____
T 8. The mean of any normal distribution is always equal to 0.
____
T 9. The probability of an event not occurring is zero.
____
F 10. According to the Empirical Rule, 95% of the observations fall within 3 standard
____
deviations to the mean.

Test II. 1. A single card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of selecting the
following:
2/13
________a) A 7 or a queen
1/2 b) A heart or a spade
________
________
7/13 c) A jack or a black card
1
________d) A red or a black card
3/13 e) A face card
_______

2. Determine whether each of the ff is classical (C), empirical (E) or subjective (S) probability:
Write the letter only of your choice.

S
_______ a. The probability of a cadet dozing in class is 0.2.
C
_______ b. If the number of bettors in the Super Lotto is 1M, the probability of a winning ticket
is 1/1M.
S
_______ c. The probability that Ms. C. Ma. Ngot will not be in good mood today is 99%.
S
_______ d. The probability that the copying machine will fail after a month’s operation is 31%.
E
_______ e. The probability of getting all black cards in 3 draws from a deck of 52 cards with
replacement is 1/8.

3. The wheel spinner shown here is spun twice. Determine the probability of the following
events.
.

6/25 a) An odd number on the first spin and an even number on the second
_____
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 9/25
______b) Even numbers on both spins.
______c)
4/25 A 4 in the first spin and less than 4 in the second spin.
______d)
1/25 Getting 2 in both spins
______e)
4/25 A total of 3 in both spins

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