35

Advanced
Probability
Event
IN THIS CHAPTER ....
Any particular performance of a random experiment is called a trial and
outcome or combination of outcomes are termed as events. Event
e.g. If a coin is tossed repeatedly, the result is not unique. We may get any of Probability
the two faces head or tail. Important Results Related to
Thus, tossing of a coin is a random experiment or trial and getting of a head Probability
or tail is an event. Conditional Probability
Event is called simple if it corresponds to a single possible outcome of the
Important Results Related to
experiment otherwise it is known as a compound or composite event.
Conditional Probability
e.g. In tossing of a single die, the event of getting ‘6’ is a simple event but the
Law of Total Probability
event of getting an even number is a composite event.
Baye’s Theorem
Type of Events Random Variable and Its
Distribution
Equally Likely Events Mean and Variance of a Random
The given events are said to be equally likely, if none of them is expected to Variable
occur in preference to the other. Binomial Distribution
e.g. In throwing an unbiased die, all the six faces are equally likely to come.
Geometrical Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events
Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompatible, if the happening of
any one of them precludes the happening of all the others i.e. if no two or
more of them can happen simultaneously in the same trial.
If E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive, then P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = 0
e.g. In throwing a die all the 6 faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually exclusive,
since if any one of these faces comes, the possibility of others, in the same
trial, is ruled out.
Note If E1, E2 , ……, En are mutually exclusive events, then E1 Ç E2 Ç ... Ç En = f
1004 JEE Main Mathematics

Exhaustive Events Probability

Two or more events associated to a random experiments The probability of an event E occur is the ratio of the
are exhaustive, if their union is the sample space. number of cases in its favour to the total number of cases.
i.e. Events A1 , A2 , A3 , ... , An associated to a random Number of cases favourable to event E
experiment with sample space are exhaustive, if \ P( E ) =
Total number of cases
A1 È A2 È K È An = S. n (E)
=
i.e. P ( A1 È A2 È K È An ) = 1 n (S )
e.g. In throwing of two dice, the exhaustive number of Probability of non-occurrence of event E is
cases is 62 = 36, since any of the numbers 1 to 6 on the
P ( E ) = 1 - P ( E ) and 0 £ P ( E ) £ 1.
first die can be associated with any of the 6 numbers on
the other die. If P ( E ) = 1, then event E is known as certain event and if
Note In throwing of n dice, the exhaustive number of case is 6n . P ( E ) = 0, then E is known as impossible event.

Independent Events or Mutually Important Results Related to Probability

Independent Events (i) If E1 and E2 are events associated with a random
experiment, then
Two events A and B are said to be independent events,
if the happening (or non-happening) of any random P ( E1 È E2 ) = P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) - P ( E1 Ç E2 )
experiment does not affect the happening [addition theorem]
(or non-happening) of the other. If E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events,
i.e. P ( A Ç B) = P ( A) P ( B) i.e. E1 Ç E2 = f, then
Otherwise events are known as dependent events. P ( E1 È E2 ) = P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) [Q P( f) = 0 ]
e.g. If we draw a card from a pack of well-shuffled cards (ii) If E1 , E2 and E3 are events associated with a random
and replace it before drawing the second card, the result experiment, then
of the second draw is independent of the first draw. But
however, if the first card drawn is not replaced then the P ( E1 È E2 È E3 ) = P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + P ( E3 )
second draw is dependent on the first draw. -P ( E1 Ç E2 ) - P ( E2 Ç E3 ) - P ( E1 Ç E3 )
+ P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 )
Complement of an Event
If E1 , E2 and E3 are mutually exclusive events, then
A sample space associated with a random experiment be
S and event is E, then the complement of an event E is P ( E1 È E2 È E3 ) = P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + P ( E3 )
denoted by E¢ , E c or E, E¢ means event E does not occur. (iii) In general P ( E1 È E2 ÈKÈEn )
n
E¢ = { n : n Î S , n Ï E }
(i) P ( E È E¢ ) = S (ii) P ( E Ç E¢ ) = f (iii) P ( E¢ )¢ = E
= å P ( Ei ) - å P ( Ei Ç E j )
i =1 i<j
e.g. When an unbiased die is thrown, then the sample
space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and E = {1, 3, 5},
+ å P ( Ei Ç E j Ç Ek )
i < j <k
then E¢ = {2, 4, 6} - K + ( -1)n - 1 P ( E1 Ç E2 ÇKÇEn )
Note If E1 , E2 , K , En are mutually exclusive events, then
• If E1 and E2 are independent events, then n
• E1 and E2 are independent events. P ( E1 È E2 ÈKÈEn ) = å P ( Ei )
i =1
• E1 and E2 are independent events.
• E1 and E2 are independent events. (iv) (a) P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = P ( E2 ) - P ( E1 Ç E2 )
• Let the sample space associated to a random experiment is S, (b) P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = P ( E1 ) - P ( E1 Ç E2 )
then f and S are subset of S. The event f is known as impossible
event and event S is known as certain event. (c) P [( E1 Ç E2 ) È ( E1 Ç E2 )]
= P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) - 2P ( E1 Ç E2 )
Partition of a Sample Space
(d) P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = 1 - P ( E1 È E2 )
The events A1 , A2 , ... , An represent a partition of the
sample space S, if they are pairwise disjoint, exhaustive (e) P ( E1 È E2 ) = 1 - P ( E1 Ç E2 )
and have non-zero probabilities, i.e.
(v) If E2 Ì E1, then
(i) Ai Ç Aj = f; i ¹ j; i , j = 1, 2, ... , n
(a) P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = P ( E1 ) - P ( E2 )
(ii) A1 È A2 È K È An = S
(b) P ( E2 ) £ P ( E1 )
(iii) P ( Ai ) > 0, "i = 1, 2, ... , n
Advanced Probability 1005

(vi) Booley’s inequality If events E1 , E2 , E3 , …, En Sol. (a) Total number of ways of selecting 2 different numbers
are associated with a random experiment, then from {0, 1, 2, ..., 10} = 11C 2 = 55
æ n ö n Let two numbers selected be x and y.
(a) P çç Ç Ei ÷÷ ³ å P ( Ei ) - ( n - 1)
èi =1 ø i =1 Then, x + y = 4m …(i)
and x - y = 4n …(ii)
æ n ö n
(b) P çç È Ei ÷÷ £ å P ( Ei ) Þ 2x = 4(m + n) and 2y = 4(m - n)
èi =1 ø i =1 Þ x = 2(m + n) and y = 2(m - n)
(vii) P (atleast two events from E1, E2 and E3 occur) \x and y both are even numbers.
= P ( E1 Ç E2 ) + P ( E2 Ç E3 ) + P ( E3 Ç E1 )
x y
- 2 P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 )
0 4, 8
(viii) P (two events from E1, E2 and E3 occur)
2 6, 10
= P ( E1 Ç E2 ) + P ( E2 Ç E3 ) + P ( E3 Ç E1 ) 4 0, 8
- 3 P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) 6 2, 10
(ix) P (only one event occur from E1 , E2 and E3 ) 8 0, 4
= P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + P ( E3 ) - 2 P ( E1 Ç E2 ) 10 2, 6

-2 P ( E2 Ç E3 ) - 2 P ( E3 Ç E1 ) + 3P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) 6
\Required probability =
(x) If E1, E2, E3 , …, En are independent events, then 55

P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 Ç K Ç En ) = P ( E1 ) P ( E2 ) K P ( En ) Example 2. For three events A, B and C, if P (exactly one of

(xi) If E1 , E2, E3 , …, En are exhaustive events, then A or B occurs) = P(exactly one of B or C occurs) = P (exactly
P ( E1 È E2 È K È En ) = 1 1
one of C or A occurs) = and P (all the three events occur
4
(xii) If E1, E2, E3 , …, En are mutually exclusive and
1
exhaustive events, then simultaneously) = , then the probability that atleast one of
16
P ( E1 È E2 È K È En ) the events occurs, is (JEE Main 2017)
= P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + . . . + P ( En ) = 1 7 7
(a) (b)
(xiii) If E1, E2, E3 , …, En are n events, then 32 16
(a) P ( E1 È E2 È E3 È K È En ) 7 3
(c) (d)
£ P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + K + P ( En ) 64 16

(b) P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç K Ç En ) Sol. (b) We have, P (exactly one of A or B occurs)

³ 1 - P ( E1 ) - P ( E2 ) - K - P ( En ) = P( A È B) - P( A Ç B)

(xiv) If E1 and E2 are two events, then = P( A) + P(B) - 2P( A Ç B)

P ( E1 Ç E2 ) £ P ( E1 ) £ P ( E1 È E2 ) £ P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) According to the question,

1
(xv) (a) P (exactly one of E1 and E2 occurs) P( A) + P(B) - 2P( A Ç B) = …(i)
4
= P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) - 2P ( E1 Ç E2 ) 1
P(B) + P(C) - 2P(B Ç C) = …(ii)
= P ( E1 È E2 ) - P ( E1 Ç E2 ) 4
(b) P (neither E1 nor E2 ) = P ( E1¢ Ç E2¢ ) 1
and P(C) + P( A) - 2P(C Ç A) = …(iii)
= 1 - P ( E1 È E2 ) 4

(xvi) If E1 , E2 , ... , En are independent events associated On adding Eqs. (i), (ii) and (iii), we get
3
with a random experiment, then probability of 2 [P( A) + P(B) + P(C) - P( A Ç B) - P(B Ç C) - P(C Ç A)] =
occurrence of atleast one = P ( E1 È E2 È K È En ) 4
3
= 1 - P ( E1 È E2 È K È En ) Þ P( A) + P(B) + P(C) - P( A Ç B) - P(B Ç C) -P(C Ç A) =
8
= 1 - P ( E1 ) × P ( E2 ) K P ( En ) \P (atleast one event occurs)
= P( A È B È C)
Example 1. If two different numbers are taken from the set
= P( A) + P(B) + P(C) - P( A Ç B) - P(B Ç C)
{0, 1, 2, 3, …, 10}, then the probability that their sum as well as
- P(C Ç A) + P( A Ç B Ç C)
absolute difference are both multiple of 4, is (JEE Main 2017)
3 1 7 é 1ù
(a)
6
(b)
12
(c)
14
(d)
7 = +
8 16 16
= êëQ P( A Ç B Ç C) = 16 úû
55 55 45 55
1006 JEE Main Mathematics

Conditional Probability In general, if E1 , E2 , K , En are n events such that

The probability of occurrence of an event E2 , when it is E1 ¹ f, E1E2 ¹ f, E1E2E3 ¹ f, K , E1E2K En - 1 ¹ f,
known that some event E1 has already occurred is called then
æE ö P ( E1 Ç E2 ÇKÇEn )
the conditional probability and is denoted by P çç 2 ÷÷ . The
è E1 ø æE ö æ E ö æ En ö
= P ( E1 ) P çç 2 ÷÷P çç 3 ÷÷ K P ç ÷
æE ö è E1 ø è E1E2 ø ç E1E2K En - 1 ÷
symbol P çç 2 ÷÷ is usually read as probability of E2 , given è ø
è E1 ø (vi) If E1 and E2 are independent events, then
E1. Consider two events E1 and E2. When it is known that
æE ö
event E1 has occurred, it means that sample space would (a) P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = P ( E1 ) × P çç 2 ÷÷ , If P ( E1 ) ¹ 0
reduce to that sample points representing event E1. Now, è E1 ø
æE ö æE ö
for P çç 2 ÷÷ we must look for the sample points (b) P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = P ( E2 ) × P çç 1 ÷÷ , If P ( E2 ) ¹ 0
è E1 ø è E2 ø
representing the simultaneous occurrence of E1 and E2, (vii) If E1 and E2 are independent events, then
i.e., sample points in E1 Ç E2. P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = P ( E1 ) × P ( E2 )
n( E1 Ç E2 )
(viii) If E1 , E2, …, En are independent events, then
æ E2 ö n( E1 Ç E2 ) n(S ) P ( E1 Ç E2 )
Þ P çç ÷÷ = = = P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 Ç E4 Ç K Ç En )
E
è 1ø n ( E1 ) n ( E1 ) P ( E1 )
= P ( E1 ) P ( E2 ) K P ( En )
n(S )
(ix) The events A and f are always independent
æ E ö P ( E1 Ç E2 )
Thus, P çç 2 ÷÷ = , where 0 < P ( E1 ) £ 1. \ P ( A Ç f) = P ( A) × P ( f) = 0
è E1 ø P ( E1 )
i.e. an event A and an impossible event (i.e., null
æ E ö P ( E1 Ç E2 ) event) can never occur together.
Similarly, P çç 1 ÷÷ = , 0 < P ( E2 ) £ 1.
è E2 ø P ( E2 ) (x) The events A and S are always independent
ì P ( E1 ) × P ( E2 / E1 ), P ( E1 ) > 0 \ P ( A Ç S ) = P ( A) × P (S ) = P ( A)
Hence, P ( E1 Ç E2 ) = í i.e. occurrence of an event A along with sample
î P ( E2 ) × P ( E1 / E2 ), P ( E2 ) > 0
space event is the event A itself.
This is known as multiplication theorem of probability. (xi) Mutually exclusive events (none of which is an
impossible event) are not independent.
Important Results Related to
Let A and B be two non-impossible mutually
Conditional Probability
exclusive events
(i) If E1 and E2 are independent events, then \ P ( A È B) = P ( A) + P ( B) …(i)
æE ö Now, P ( A Ç B) = P ( A) + P ( B) - P ( A È B)
P çç 2 ÷÷ = P ( E2 )
è E1 ø [additional theorem]
(ii) If E1, E2, E3 , ... , En are independent events, then Þ P ( A Ç B) = 0 [using Eq. (i)]
P ( E1 È E2 È K È En ) = 1 - P ( E1¢ ) P ( E¢2 ) K P ( E¢n ) But since A and B are non-impossible events
\ P ( A) and P ( B) ¹ 0
(iii) If E1 and E2 are events such that E2 ¹ 0, then
Þ P ( A) × P ( B) > 0
æE ö æ E¢ ö
P çç 1 ÷÷ + P ç 1 ÷ = 1 [Q probability of an event is never negative]
è E2 ø ç E2 ÷
è ø Hence, P ( A Ç B) ¹ P ( A) × P ( B)
(iv) If E1 and E2 are events such that E1 ¹ f, then \ Events A and B are not independent.
æE ö Hence, mutually exclusive events (none of which is
æE ö
P ( E2 ) = P ( E1 ) × P çç 2 ÷÷ + P ( E1¢ ) × P ç 2 ÷ impossible event) are not independent.
è E1 ø ç E¢ ÷
è 1ø (xii) Non-impossible independent events are not
(v) Multiplication theorem on probability if E1 , E2 mutually exclusive
andE3 are three events such that E1 ¹ f, E1E2 ¹ f, Let A and B be non-impossible independent events,
then then
P ( A Ç B) = P ( A) × P ( B) …(i)
æE ö æ E ö
P ( E1 Ç E2 Ç E3 ) = P ( E1 ) × P çç 2 ÷÷ × P çç 3 ÷÷ Now, P ( A È B) = P ( A) + P ( B) - P ( A Ç B)
è E1 ø è E1E2 ø (addition theorem)
Advanced Probability 1007

Þ P ( A È B) = P ( A) + P ( B) - P ( A) × P ( B) …(ii) Sol. (d) Let define the events

Since, A and B are non-impossible events F is the event the score 4 has appeared once and E is the
event the sum of scores appearing on the die is a multiple
\ P ( A) and P ( B) ¹ 0
of 4.
Þ P ( A) × P ( B) exists finitely So, F = {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 6), (4, 5),
Hence, P ( A È B) ¹ P ( A) + P ( B) [from Eq. (ii)] (4, 3), (4, 2), (4, 1)}
Þ The events are not mutually exclusive. and E = {(1, 3), (2, 2), (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (3, 1),
(xiii) Mutually independent events (6, 6)}
So required conditional probability is
Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually
P(F Ç E) 1
independent if, P(F / E) = =
P(E) 9
P ( A Ç B) = P ( A) × P ( B),
P ( A Ç C ) = P ( A) × P (C ), Example 5. Let E C denote the complement of an event E.
P ( B Ç C ) = P ( B) × P (C ) Let E1, E2 and E3 be any pairwise independent events with
and P ( A Ç B Ç C ) = P ( A) × P ( B) × P (C ) P(E1) > 0 and P (E1 Ç E2 Ç E3) = 0. Then P(EC2 Ç E3C (JEE is equal
/ E1) Main to
2020)

These events would be said to be pairwise (a) P(EC2 ) + P(E3) (b) P(E3C ) - P(EC2 )
independent, if (c) P(E3) - P(EC2 ) (d) P(E3C ) - P(E 2)
P ( A Ç B) = P ( A) × P ( B), P ( B Ç C ) = P ( B) × P (C )
Sol. (d) As, we know that
and P ( A Ç C ) = P ( A) × P (C ).
P (EC2 Ç E3C |E1) = 1 - P((E 2 È E3)|E1) [by De-morgan's law]
Thus, mutually independent events are pairwise
independent but the converse may not be true. P ((E 2 È E3 ) Ç E1)
=1- [by conditional probability]
P(E1)
Example 3. Let A denote the event that a 6-digit integer P (E 2 Ç E1) È (E3 Ç E1)
=1-
formed by 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 without repetitions, be divisible P(E1)
by 3. Then, probability of event A is equal to (JEE Main 2021) P (E 2 Ç E1) + P (E3 Ç E1) - P((E 2 Ç E1) Ç (E3 Ç E1))
9 4 3 11 =1-
(a) (b) (c) (d) P(E1)
56 9 7 27 P (E 2 Ç E1) + P (E3 Ç E1) - P(E1 Ç E 2 Ç E3)
=1-
Sol. (b) Total cases P(E1)
6 ×6 ×5 × 4 ×3 ×2 As the events E1, E 2 and E3 are pairwise independent events
n( s) = 6 × 6 ! and P (E1 Ç E 2 Ç E3) = 0
Favourable cases Given, so
Number divisible by 3 º P(E )P(E 2) + P(E1) P(E3)
P (EC2 Ç E3C|E1) = 1 - 1
Sum of digits must be divisible by 3 P (E1)
Case I = 1 - P (E 2) - P(E3) = P (E3C ) - P (E 2)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Number of ways = 6 ! Example 6. P1, P2, ..., P8 an eight players participating in a
Case II tournament. If i < j, then Pi will win the match against P1.
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Players are paired up randomly for first round and winners of
Number of ways = 5 × 5 !
this round again paired up for the second round and so on.
The probability that P4 reaches in the final, is
Case III
2 4
0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 (a) (b)
7 9
Number of ways = 5 × 5 ! 4
n( favourable) = 6 ! + 2 × 5 × 5 ! (c) (d) None of these
35
6 ! + 2 ×5 ×5 ! 4
Required probability = = Sol. (c) Let A1 be the event that in the first round the four winners
6 ×6 ! 9
are P1, P4 , Pi , Pj where i Î{2, 3}, j Î{5, 6, 7} and let A2 be the
Example 4. A die thrown two times and the sum of the event that out of the four winners in the first round, P1 and P4
scores appearing on the die is observed to be a multiple of 4. reaches in the final.
Then the conditional probability that the score 4 has The event A1 will occur, if P4 plays with any of P5 , P6 , P7 or P8
appeared atleast once is (JEE Main 2020) (say with P6 ) and P1, P2 and P3 are not paired with P5 , P7 and P8.
1 1 1 1 Further A2 will occur if P1 plays with Pi .
(a) (b) (c) (d)
4 3 8 9
1008 JEE Main Mathematics

æA ö information from the experiment itself.

The required probability = P ( A1 Ç A2) = P( A1) × P çç 2 ÷÷
è A1 ø æ E ö
P çç ÷÷ , i = 1, 2, ... , n are called the likelyhood
æ 6! ö è E1¢ ø
4 ´ çç 3
- 3 !÷÷
= è (2 !) 3 ! ø ´ 1
=
4 probabilities.
8! 4! 35 æE ö
(2 !) 4 4 ! (2 !) 2 2 ! The probability P ç i ÷, i = 1, 2, K , n are called ‘posterior
è Eø
(here, we have used the concept of division into groups). probabilities’ because they are determined after the
results of the experiment are known.
Law of Total Probability
Example 8. A bag contains 4 red and 6 black balls. A ball
Let in a random experiment S is a sample space and is drawn at random from the bag, its colour is observed and
E1, E2, …, En are mutually exclusive and exhaustive this ball along with two additional balls of the same colour
events. If A is any event which occur with E1 or E2 or E3
are returned to the bag. If now a ball is drawn at random from
or … or En , then
the bag, then the probability that this drawn ball is red, is
æ Aö æ Aö (JEE Main 2018)
P ( A) = P ( E1 ) × P çç ÷÷ + P ( E2 ) P çç ÷÷
è E1 ø è E2 ø 3 2 1 3
(a) (b) (c) (d)
æ A ö 10 5 5 4
+ K + P ( En ) P çç ÷÷ .
è En ø Sol. (b) Let E1 = Event that first ball drawn is red
n æ Aö
= å P ( Er ) P çç ÷÷ E 2 = Event that first ball drawn is black
r =1 è Er ø A = Event that second ball drawn is red
4 æ Aö 6
Example 7. Two sets of candidates are competing for the P(E1) = , P çç ÷÷ =
10 è E1 ø 12
positions on the board of directors of a company. The
6 æ Aö 4
probabilities that the first and second sets will win are 0.6 and Þ P(E 2) = , Pç ÷ =
0.4 respectively. If the first set wins, the probability of 10 çè E 2 ÷ø 12
introducing a new product is 0.8 and the corresponding By law of total probability
probability, if the second set wins is 0.3. What is the æ Aö æ Aö
P( A) = P(E1) ´ P çç ÷÷ + P(E 2) ´ P çç ÷÷
probability that the new product will be introduced? E
è 1ø è E2 ø
(a) 0.1 (b) 0.3 (c) 0.5 (d) 0.6 4 6 6 4 24 + 24 48 2
= ´ + ´ = = =
Sol. (d) Let A1 ( A2) denotes the event that first (second) set wins 10 12 10 12 120 120 5
and let B be the event that a new product is introduced.
Example 9. Box I contains 30 cards numbered 1 to 30 and
\ P( A1) = 0.6, P( A2) = 0.4
Box II contains 20 cards numbered 31 to 50. A box is selected
æBö æBö
P çç ÷÷ = 0.8, P çç ÷÷ = 0.3 at random and a card is drawn from it. The number on the
è A1 ø è A2 ø card is found to be a non-prime number. The probability that
P(B) = P(B Ç A1) + P(B Ç A2) the card was drawn from Box I is (JEE Main 2020, 2 September)
æBö æBö 8 2 2 4
= P( A1) × P çç ÷÷ + P( A2) P
çç ÷÷ (a) (b) (c) (d)
è A1 ø è A2 ø 17 3 5 17
= 0.6 ´ 0.8 + 0.4 ´ 0.3 = 0.6 Sol. (a) According to the question, let us define the events
E1 = the event of selection of Box-I
Baye’s Theorem E 2 = the event of selection of Box-II
1
If E1, E2 , …, En are mutually exclusive and exhaustive \ P(E1) = P(E 2) =
2
events with P ( Ei ) ¹ 0, ( i = 1, 2 , K , n ), then for any event E
n and A = the event of drawn a non-prime numbered card
which is a subset of È Ei such that P ( E ) > 0, then æ A ö 20 2 æ A ö 15 3
i =1
\ P çç ÷÷ = = and P çç ÷÷ = =
æ Eö è E1 ø 30 3 è E 2 ø 20 4
P ( Ei ) × P çç ÷÷ Now, according to Baye’s Theorem
æE ö
P ç i ÷= è Ei ø , where i = 1, 2, 3, …, n
n P(E1)P( A / E1)
è Eø æ E ö P(E1 / A) =
å P( Ei ) × P çç E ÷÷ P(E1)P( A / E1) + P(E 2)P( A / E 2)
i =1 è i ø 1/2 ´ 2 /3 2 /3 2 /3 8
= = = =
The probabilities P ( E1 ), P ( E2 ), K , P ( Ei ) are called ‘prior æ 1 2 ö æ 1 3 ö 2 / 3 + 3 / 4 8 + 9 17
ç ´ ÷+ç ´ ÷
probabilities’ because they exist before, we gain any è2 3ø è2 4ø 12
Advanced Probability 1009

2
Random Variable n
pi xi2
æ n ö
- ç å pi xi ÷
Let S be the sample space associated with a given
Þ var ( X ) = å çi =1 ÷
i =1 è ø
random experiment. Then, a real valued function X
which assigns to each event w Î S to a unique real The square root of the variance gives the standard
number X ( w) is called a random variable. deviation
A random variable is a function that associate a unique i.e. var( X ) = s2 = s
numerical value with every outcome of an experiment. Note
The value of the random variable will vary from trial to • The mean of a random variable X is also known as its
trial as the experiment is repeated. mathematical expectation or expected value and is denoted by
A random variable is usually denoted by the capital E( X ).
letters X , Y , Z ,K etc. • The variance and standard deviation of a random variable are
always non-negative.
e.g. A coin is tossed ten times. The random variable X is
the number of tails that are noted. X can only take the Important Results
values 0, 1, 2 , K , 10. So, X is a discrete random variable.
(i) Variance V ( X ) = s2x = E( X 2 ) - { E( X )} 2
There are two types of random variable
n
(i) Discrete Random Variable If the range of the real E( X 2 ) = xi2 p( xi )
function X : U ® R is a finite set or an infinite set of
where, å
i =1
real numbers, it is called a discrete random
variable. (ii) Standard Deviation
(ii) Continuous Random Variable If the range of X is V ( X ) = sx = E( X 2 ) - { E( X )} 2
an interval (a, b) of R, then X is called a continuous (iii) If Y = a X + b, then
random variable.
(a) E(Y ) = E( aX + b) = aE( X ) + b
e.g., In tossing of two coins S = { HH , HT , TH , TT } ,
let X denotes number of heads in tossing of two (b) sY2 = V (Y ) = a 2V ( X ) = a 2s2x
coins, then X ( HH ) = 2, X (TH ) = 1, X (TT ) = 0 (c) sY = V (Y ) =|a|sx
(iv) If Z = aX 2 + bX + c, then
Probability Distribution
If a random variable X takes values x1 , x2 , K , xn with E( Z ) = E( aX 2 + bX + c) = aE( X 2 ) + bE( X ) + c
respective probabilities p1 , p2 , K , pn , then
X x1 x2 x3 … xn
Binomial Distribution
P( X ) p1 p2 p3 … pn Bernoulli Trial
In a random experiment, if there are any two events,
is known as the probability distribution of X, “Success and Failure” and the sum of the probabilities of
n
where pi > 0 and å pi = 1; i = 1, 2, 3, ... , n. these two events is one, then any outcome of such
i =1 experiment is known as a Bernaulli Trial.
Let a binomial experiment has probability of success p
Mean and Variance and that of failure q (i.e. p + q = 1). If E be an event and
of a Random Variable let X = number of success i.e. number of times event
E occurs in n trials.
If X is a discrete random variable which assumes values
x1 , x2 , x3 , ... , xn with respective probabilities Then, probability distribution of binomial distribution
p1 , p2 , p3 , ... , pn , then the mean X of X is defined as with parameters n and p is given by
n P ( X = r ) = Probability of r success in n trials
X = p1x1 + p2x2 + K + pn xn Þ X = å pi xi
= n Cr pr q n - r ( p + q = 1)
i =1
and variance of X is defined as
= (r + 1) th term in the expansion of ( q + p)n
var ( X ) = p1( x1 - X )2 + p2( x2 - X )2 + K + pn ( xn - X )2
n
It is written as
= å pi ( xi - X )2 X ~ B( n , p)
i =1
or X ~ Bi( n , p).
n
where, X = å pi xi is the mean of X.
i =1
1010 JEE Main Mathematics

The trials must meet the following requirements 400 400

(a) loss (b) loss
● the total number of trials is fixed in advance. 3 9
● there are just two outcomes of each trials, success and
400
(c) 0 (d) gain
failure. 3
● all the trials have the same probability of success.
Sol. (c) Let p and q represents the probability of success and
● the outcomes of all the trials are statistically
failure in a trial respectively.
independent. 2 1 4 2
Then, p = P(5 or 6) = = and q = 1 - p = = .
6 3 6 3
Mean and Variance of Binomial Now, as the man decides to throw the die either till he gets a
Distribution five or a six or to a maximum of three throws, so he can get
Let X ~ B ( n , p), then P ( X = r ) = n Cr pr q n - r the success in first, second and third throw or not get the
where, r = 0, 1, 2, ... , n and p + q = 1 success in any of the three throws.
So, the expected gain/loss (in `)
\ Mean, X = E ( X ) = np
= ( p ´ 100) + qp( - 50 + 100)
and variance, var ( X ) = npq + q 2p( - 50 - 50 + 100) + q 3 ( - 50 - 50 - 50)
Standard deviation = npq æ1 ö æ 2 1ö æ 2 ö æ 1ö æ2ö
2 3
= ç ´ 100 ÷ + ç ´ ÷(50) + ç ÷ ç ÷(0) + ç ÷ ( - 150)
è3 ø è3 3ø è3ø è3ø è3ø
Relation between Mean and Variance 100 100 1200
Mean - Variance = np - npq = np(1 - q ) = np2 > 0 = + +0-
3 9 27
Þ Mean > Variance 900 + 300 - 1200 1200 - 1200
= = =0
i.e. For binomial variable X, value of mean is always 27 27
greater than its variance.
Example 12. For an initial screening of an admission test, a
Example 10. Two cards are drawn successively with candidate is given fifty problems to solve. If the probability
replacement from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. Let X 4
that the candidate can solve any problem is , then the
denote the random variable of number of aces obtained in the 5
two drawn cards. Then, P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) equals probability that he is unable to solve less than two problem is
(JEE Main 2019) (JEE Main 2019)
49 48 49 48
25 52 49 24 201 æ 1 ö 316 æ 4 ö 54 æ 4 ö 164 æ 1 ö
(a) (b) (c) (d) (a) ç ÷ (b) ç ÷ (c) ç ÷ (d) ç ÷
169 169 169 169 5 è5ø 25 è 5 ø 5 è5ø 25 è 5 ø

Sol. (b) Let p = probability of getting an ace in a draw Sol. (c) Given that, there are 50 problems to solve in an
= probability of success admission test and probability that the candidate can solve
4
and q = probability of not getting an ace in a draw any problem is = q (say).
5
= probability of failure
So, probability that the candidate cannot solve a problem is
4 1 1 12
Then, p = = and q = 1 - p = 1 - = 4 1
52 13 13 13 p = 1 - q = 1- =
5 5
Here, number of trials, n = 2
Now, let X be a random variable which denotes the number
Clearly, X follows binomial distribution with parameter n = 2
1 of problems that the candidate is unable to solve.
and p = . Then, X follows binomial distribution with parameters
13
x 2- x 1
æ 1 ö æ12 ö n = 50 and p =
Now, P( X = x) = 2C x ç ÷ ç ÷ , x = 0 , 1, 2 5
è13 ø è13 ø Now, according to binomial probability distribution concept
1 2 0
æ1ö æ12 ö 2 æ 1 ö æ12 ö r
æ 1ö æ 4 ö
50 - r
\ P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) = 2C1ç ÷ ç ÷ + C 2ç ÷ ç ÷ P( X = r) = 50C r ç ÷ ç ÷ , r = 0 , 1, ... , 50
è13 ø è13 ø è13 ø è13 ø è5ø è 5 ø
æ 12 ö 1 24 1 25 \Required probability = P( X < 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1)
=2ç ÷ + = + =
è169 ø 169 169 169 169 50
4 49
æ 4ö
= 50C 0 ç ÷ + 50C1 50
è5ø (5)
Example 11. In a game, a man wins ` 100 if he gets 5 or 6 49
on a throw of a fair die and loses ` 50 for getting any other æ 4ö æ 4 50 ö
=ç ÷ ç + ÷
number on the die. If he decides to throw the die either till he è5ø è5 5 ø
gets a five or a six or to a maximum of three throws, then his 54 æ 4ö
49
expected gain/loss (in rupees) is (JEE Main 2019) = ç ÷
5 è5ø
Advanced Probability 1011

n ( B)
Pn ( A )
Geometrical Probability (b) a many one function = 1 - ,
n( B)n ( A )
If the total number of outcomes of a trial in a random
experiment is infinite, in such cases, the definition of provided n( B) ³ n( A)
probability is modified and the general expression for the n( B)
probability P of occurrence of an event is given by (c) a constant function =
Measure of the specified part of the region n( B)n ( A )
P= n( A)!
Measure of the whole region (d) a one one onto function = ,
n( B)n ( A )
where, measure means length or area or volume of the
region, if we are dealing with one, two or three provided n( A) = n( B)
dimensional space respectively.
Example 13. A point is selected at random from the interior
Application Based Results of a circle. The probability that the point in closer to the
(i) When two dice are thrown, the number of ways of centre than boundary of the circle is
getting a total r is 3 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) None of these
(a) ( r - 1), if 2 £ r £ 7 (b) (13 - r ), if 8 £ r £ 12 4 2 4

(ii) Experiment with insertion of n letters in n Sol. (c) In a circle, all the points which lie in the area of half the
addressed envelopes. radius will be nearer to origin that to the boundary.
(a) Probability of inserting all the n letters in right
1
envelopes =
n!
(b) Probability that all letters does not in right
1
envelopes = 1 -
n!
n( S) = The area of circle of radius r.
(c) Probability of keeping all the letters in wrong
r
1 1 ( -1)n n(E) = The area of the circle of radius
envelope = - +K+ 2
2! 3! n!
n(E)
(d) Probability that exactly r letters are in right \ Required probability =
n( S)
envelopes 2
1 é1 1 1 1 ù ærö
pç ÷
= ê - + - K + ( - 1)n - r 2 1
r ! ë2! 3! 4! ( n - r )!úû \ Required probability = è 2ø =
pr 4
(iii) (a) Selection of shoes from a cupboard Out of n
pair of shoes, if k shoes are selected at random, Example 14. Let S = {1, 2, K , 20}. A subset B of S is said to
the probability that there is no pair is be “nice”, if the sum of the elements of B is 203. Then, the
n
Ck 2k probability that a randomly chosen subset of S is ‘‘nice’’, is
p= 2n
.
Ck (JEE Main 2019)
6 4 7 5
(b) The probability that there is atleast one pair is (a) 20 (b) 20 (c) 20 (d)
2 2 2 2 20
(1 - p).
Sol. (d) Number of subset of S = 2 20
(iv) Selection of squares from the chessboard If r
squares are selected from a chessboard, then Sum of elements in S is
probability that they lie on a diagonal is 20(21)
1 + 2 + .....+20 = = 210
2
4 [ 7Cr + 6Cr + K + 1Cr ] + 2( 8Cr ) é n(n + 1) ù
64
Cr êëQ1 + 2+ ...... + n = 2 úû

(v) If A and B are two finite sets and if a mapping is Clearly, the sum of elements of a subset would be 203, if we
selected at random from the set of all mapping from consider it as follows
A into B, then the probability that the mapping is S - {7}, S - {1, 6} S - {2, 5}, S - {3, 4}
n ( B) S - {1, 2, 4 }
Pn ( A )
(a) a one one function = n (A )
, \Number of favourables cases = 5
n( B)
5
provided n( B) ³ n( A) Hence, required probability = 20
2
1012 JEE Main Mathematics

Practice Exercise
ROUND I Topically Divided Problems
Events and Fundamental 1
happen is and the probability that neither E nor
12
of Probability 1
F happens is , then
1. In a series of three trials the probability of exactly 2
two successes in nine times as large as the 1 1 1 1
(a) P (E ) = , P (F ) = (b) P (E ) = , P (F ) =
probability of three successes. Then, the probability 3 4 2 6
1 1 1
of success in each trial is (c) P (E ) = 1, P (F ) = (d) P (E ) = , P (F ) =
12 3 2
1 1 1 3
(a) (b) (c) (d)
2 3 4 4 7. Let w be a complex cube root of unity with w ¹ 1. A
fair die is thrown three times. If r1, r2 and r3 are the
2. A natural number is chosen at random from the
numbers obtained on the die, then the probability
first one hundred natural numbers. The probability that wr1 + wr2 + wr3 = 0 is
( x - 20)( x - 40) 1 1 2 1
that < 0 is (a) (b) (c) (d)
x - 30 18 9 9 36
1 3 3 7 8. In a random experiment, a fair die is rolled until
(a) (b) (c) (d)
50 50 25 25 two fours are obtained in succession. The
1 probability that the experiment will end in the fifth
3. For independent events A1, . . . , An . P ( Ai ) = ,
i+1 throw of the die is equal to (JEE Main 2019)
175 225 200 150
i = 1, 2, . . . , n. Then, the probability that none of the (a) (b) (c) (d)
65 65 65 65
events will occur is
n (n - 1) 9. A fair six-faced die is rolled 12 times. The
(a) (b)
(n + 1) (n + 1) probability that each face turns up twice is equal to
1 æ 1 ö 12 ! 212 12 ! 12 !
(c) (d) n + çç ÷÷ (a) (b) (c) (d)
(n + 1) è (n + 1) ø 6 ! 6 ! 612 26612 26612 62612

4. If two events A and B are such that P ( A¢ ) = 0.3, 10. Out of 3n consecutive natural numbers, 3 natural
æ B ö numbers are chosen at random without
P ( B) = 0.4 and ( A Ç B¢ ) = 0.5, then P çç ÷ is
÷ replacement. The probability that the sum of the
è A È B¢ ø chosen numbers is divisible by 3, is
equal to n (3n 2 - 3n + 2) (3n 2 - 3n + 2)
1 1 3 2 (a) (b)
(a) (b) (c) (d) 2 2 (3n - 1) (3n - 2)
4 5 5 5
(3n 2 - 3n + 2) n (3n - 1) (3n - 2)
5. The probability that in a group of N ( < 365) people, (c) (d)
(3n - 1) (3n - 2) 3 (n - 1)
atleast two will have the same birthday is
(365) ! (365)N (365) !
11. A, B, C are three events for which P ( A) = 0.6,
(a) 1 - (b) -1 P ( B) = 0.4 and P ( B) = 0.5, P ( A È B) = 0.8,
(365 - N ) ! (365) ! (365 - N ) !
N
(365) (365) ! (365) ! P ( A Ç C) = 0.3 and P ( A Ç B Ç C) = 0.2. If
(c) 1 - (d) 1 - P ( A È B È C) ³ 0.85, then the interval of values of
(365 ! N ) ! (365 - N ) ! (365)N
P ( B Ç C) is
6. Let E and F be two independent events such that (a) [0.2, 0.35] (b) [0.55, 0.7]
P ( E) > P ( F ). The probability that both E and F (c) [0.2, 0.55] (d) None of these
Advanced Probability 1013

12. Four fair dice D1, D2 , D3 and D4 each having six ticket having the product of its digits 7, given that
faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are rolled, the sum of the digits is 8, is
1 3
simultaneously. The probability that D4 shows a (a) (b)
14 14
number appearing on one of D1, D2 and D3 is 1
91 108 125 127 (c) (d) None of these
(a) (b) (c) (d) 5
216 216 216 216
19. If four persons independently solve a certain
Conditional Probability problem correctly with probabilities
1 3 1
, , and .
1
13. Assume that each child born is equally likely to be 2 4 4 8
boy or a girl. If a family has two children, what is Then, the probability that the problem is solved
the conditional probability that both are girls given correctly by atleast one of them, is
235 21 3 253
that (a) (b) (c) (d)
256 256 256 256
(i) the youngest is a girl?
20. A pair of fair dice is rolled together till a sum of
(ii) atleast one is a girl?
2 1 1 1
either 5 or 7 is obtained, the probability that 5
(a) and (b) and comes before 7 is
3 4 2 3
1 1 1 1 (a) 0.2 (b) 0.3 (c) 0.4 (d) 0.5
(c) and (d) and
3 4 2 4 21. An instructor has a question bank consisting of
14. Two integers are selected at random from the set 300 easy true/false questions, 200 difficult true/false
{ 1, 2, …… , 11}. Given that the sum of selected question, 500 easy multiple choice questions and
numbers is even, the conditional probability that 400 difficult multiple choice questions. If a question
both the numbers are even is (JEE Main 2019)
is selected at random from the test bank, what is the
2 1 7 3 probability that it will be an easy question given
(a) (b) (c) (d) that it is a multiple choice question?
5 2 10 5
1 2 4 5
(a) (b) (c) (d)
15. Let A and B be two non-null events such that 9 9 9 9
A Ì B. Then, which of the following statements is
22. 10% of the bulbs produced in a factory are of red
always correct. (JEE Main 2019)
colour and 2% are red and defective. If one bulb is
(a) P ( A /B) = P (B) - P ( A ) (b) P ( A/B) ³ P ( A ) picked up at random, then the probability of its
(c) P ( A/B) £ P ( A ) (d) P ( A/B) = 1
being defective if it is red, is
16. An unbiased coin is tossed. If the outcome is a 1 1 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d)
head, then a pair of unbiased dice is rolled and the 5 3 4 2
sum of the numbers obtained on them is noted. 23. A committee of 4 students is selected at random
If the toss of the coin results in tail, then a card from a group consisting 8 boys and 4 girls. Given
from a well-shuffled pack of nine cards numbered that there is atleast one girl on the committee, the
1, 2, 3, …, 9 is randomly picked and the number on probability that there are exactly 2 girls on the
the card is noted. The probability that the noted committee, is
number is either 7 or 8 is (JEE Main 2019) 7 13
(a) (b)
15 13 19 19 99 99
(a) (b) (c) (d) 14
72 36 72 36 (c) (d) None of these
99
17. Assume that each born child is equally likely to be
a boy or a girl. If two families have two children
24. Let A and B be two events such that the probability
3 1
each, then the conditional probability that all of A is . Conditional probability of A given B is
children are girls given that at least two are girls; 10 2
is (JEE Main 2019)
and the conditional probability of A given
1 1 1 1 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) complement of B is . The probability that exactly
17 12 10 11 6
one of the events A or B happens
18. Out of 50 tickets numbered 00, 01, 02, …, 49, one
3 7 1 9
ticket is drawn randomly, the probability of the (a) (b) (c) (d)
10 10 10 10
1014 JEE Main Mathematics

Bö
25. A and B are two events such that P ( A) ¹ 0. P æç ÷ if 31. An unbiased coin is tossed. If the result is a head, a
è Aø pair of unbiased dice is rolled and the sum of the
(i) A is a subset of B (ii) A Ç B = f numbers obtained is noted. If the result is a tail, a
card from a well shuffled pack of eleven cards
are respectively
numbered 2, 3, 4, K,12 is picked and the number on
(a) 0 and 1 (b) 1 and 0 (c) 1 and 1 (d) 0 and 0
the card is noted. The probability that the noted
26. A and B are two events such that P ( A) > 0, P ( B) ¹ number is either 7 or 8 is
æAö 192 193 193 17
1, then P çç ÷÷ is equal to (a) (b) (c) (d)
401 401 792 75
èBø
æ Aö æ Aö 32. A lot contains 20 aricles. The probability that the
(a) 1 - P ç ÷ (b) 1 - P çç ÷÷ lot contains exactly 2 defective articles is 0.4 and
è Bø è Bø
the probability that the lot contains exactly 3
1 - P ( A È B) P(A)
(c) (d) defective articles is 0.6. Articles are drawn from the
P (B ) P (B)
lot at random one by one without replacement and
27. Two cards are drawn one by one from a pack of cards. are tested till all defective articles are found. What
The probability of getting first card an ace and is the probability that the testing procedure ends at
second a honoured one is (before drawing second the twelfth testing?
card first card is not placed again in the pack) 99 89
(a) (b)
1 5 5 4 190 1900
(a) (b) (c) (d) 99
26 52 221 13 (c) (d) None of these
1900
Aö 1
28. For two events A and B, if P ( A) = P æç ÷ = and 33. An unbiased die with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and
è ø 4
B
B 1 8 on its six faces is rolled. After this roll, if an odd
P æç ö÷ = , then number appears on the top face, all odd numbers
è Aø 2
on the die are doubled. If an even number appears
(a) A and B are independent
æ A¢ ö 3 on the top face, all the even numbers are halved. If
(b) P ç ÷ = the given die changes in this way, then the
è Bø 4
probability that the face 2 will appear on the
æ B¢ ö 1
(c) P ç ÷ = second roll, is
è A¢ ø 2
2 3 2 5
(d) All of the above (a) (b) (c) (d)
18 18 9 18
Law of Total Probability Baye’s Theorem
29. Three machines E1, E2 and E3 in a certain factory
34. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting
produce 50%, 25% and 25%, respectively, of the
a certain disease when it is in fact present.
total daily output of electric tubes. It is known that
However, the test also yields a false positive result
4% of the tubes produced one each of machines E1
for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (i.e., if a
and E2 are defective and that 5% of those produced
healthy person is tested, then with probability
on E3 are defective. If one tube is picked up at
0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If
random from a day’s production, the probability
0.1% of the population actually has the disease,
that it is defective, is
what is the probability that a person has disease
(a) 0.025 (b) 0.125 (c) 0.325 (d) 0.0425
given that his test result is positive?
30. A pot contain 5 red and 2 green balls. At random a 11 22
(a) (b)
ball is drawn from this pot. If a drawn ball is green 133 133
then put a red ball in the pot and if a drawn ball is 33
(c) (d) None of these
red, then put a green ball in the pot, while drawn 133
ball is not replace in the pot. Now we draw another 35. In a group of 400 people, 160 are smokers and
ball randomly, the probability of second ball to be non-vegetarian; 100 are smokers and vegetarian
red is (JEE Main 2019) and the remaining 140 are non-smokers and
27 26 21 32 vegetarian. Their chances of getting a particular
(a) (b) (c) (d)
49 49 49 49 chest disorder are 35%, 20% and 10% respectively.
Advanced Probability 1015

A person is chosen from the group at random and is 41. A and B are two inaccurate arithmeticians whose
found to be suffering from the chest disorder. The chance of solving a given question correctly are 1/8
probability that the selected person is a smoker and and 1/12, respectively. They solve a problem and
non-vegetarian is (JEE Main 2021) obtained the same result. If it is 1000 to 1 against
7 8 14 28 their making the same mistake, then chance that
(a) (b) (c) (d)
45 45 45 45 the result is correct, is
13 1 1 6
36. A person goes to office either by car, scooter, bus or (a) (b) (c) (d)
14 14 7 7
1 3 2 1
train the probabilities of which being , , and , 42. A box has four dice in it. Three of them are fair dice
7 7 7 7
respectively. The probability that he reaches office but the fourth one has the number five on all of its
later if he takes car, scooter, bus or train is faces. A die is chosen at random from the box and is
2 1 4 1 rolled three times and shows up the face five on all
, , and , respectively. If he reaches office in the three occassions. The chance that the die
9 9 9 9
time, the probability that he travelled by car is chosen was a rigged die, is
216 215 216
1 1 2 1 (a) (b) (c) (d) None of these
(a) (b) (c) (d) 217 219 219
5 9 11 7
43. Suppose, a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she
37. In answering a question on a multiple choice test a
tosses a coin three times and notes the number of
student either knows the answer or guesses.
heads. If she gets 1, 2, 3 or 4 she tosses a coin once
Let 3/ 4 be the probability that he knows the
and notes whether a head or tail is obtained. If she
answer and 1/ 4 be the probability that he guesses.
obtained exactly one head, what is the probability
Assuming that a student who guesses at the
that she threw 1, 2, 3 or 4 with the die?
answer will be correct with probability 1/ 4.
4 2 6 8
What is the probability that a student knows the (a) (b) (c) (d)
11 11 11 11
answer given that he answered it correctly?
4 5 9 12 44. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the
(a) (b) (c) (d) remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn
13 13 13 13
and are found to be diamonds. The probability of
38. There are three coins. One is a two headed coin the lost card being a diamond.
(having head on both faces), another is a biased 11 2 9 43
(a) (b) (c) (d)
coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third 50 25 50 50
is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen
45. Probability that A speaks truth is 4 / 5. A coin is
at random and tossed, it shows head, what is the
tossed, A reports that a head appears. The
probability that it is was the two headed coin?
probability that actually there was head is
2 4 2 2
(a) (b) (c) (d) 4 1 1 2
9 9 3 9 (a) (b) (c) (d)
5 2 5 5
39. A bag A contains 2 white balls, 3 red balls and bag
46. Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart
B contains 4 white balls, 5 red balls. One ball is
attack is 40%. It is also assumed that a meditation
drawn at random from a randomly chosen bag and
and yoga course reduces the risk of heart attack by
is found to be red. The probability that it was
30% and prescription of certain drug reduces its
drawn from bag B, was
5 5 5 25
chances by 25%. At a time a patient can choose any
(a) (b) (c) (d) one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is
14 16 18 52
given that after going through one of the two
40. A purse contains 100 coins of unknown value, a options the patient selected at random suffers a
coin drawn at random is found to be a rupee. heart attack. The probability that the patient
The chance that it is the only rupee in the purse, is followed a course of meditation and yoga, is
(assume all numbers of rupee coins in the purse to 3 7
be equally likely) (a) (b)
29 29
1 2 1 2 14
(a) (b) (c) (d) (c) (d) None of these
5050 5151 4950 4950 29
1016 JEE Main Mathematics

47. A letter is known to have come either from Binomial Distribution

TATANAGAR or from CALCUTTA. On the
envelope, just two consecutive letter TA are visible.
54. In a workshop, there are five machines and the
probability of any one of them to be out of service
What is the probability that the letter came from 1
TATANAGAR? on a day is . If the probability that at most two
4
2 5 7 10
(a) (b) (c) (d) machines will be out of service on the same day is
11 11 11 11 3
æ 3 ö k, then k is equal to
ç ÷ (JEE Main 2020)
48. Suppose you have two coins which appear identical è4ø
in your pocket. You know that one is fair and one is 17 17 17
(a) 4 (b) (c) (d)
2 headed. If you take one out, toss it and get a 4 8 2
head, what is the probability that it was a fair coin? 55. Let a random variable X have a binomial distribution
1 1
(a) (b) k
4 3 with mean 8 and variance 4. If P ( X £ 2) = , then
1 216
(c) (d) None of these k is equal to
2 (JEE Main 2019)
(a) 17 (b) 121 (c) 1 (d) 137
49. A company has two plants to manufacture
televisions. Plant I manufacture 70% of televisions 56. If the probability of hitting a target by a shooter in
1
and plant II manufacture 30%. At plant I, 80% of any shot, is , then the minimum number of
3
the televisions are rated as of standard quality and
independent shots at the target required by him so
at plant II, 90% of the televisions are rated as of
that the probability of hitting the target at least
standard quality. A television is chosen at random
5
and is found to be of standard quality. The once is greater than , is
6 (JEE Main 2019)
probability that it has come from plant II is (a) 6 (b) 3 (c) 5 (d) 4
17 27 3 9
(a) (b) (c) (d) 57. Two cards are drawn successively with replacement
50 83 5 83
from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. Let X denote
Random Variable and Its Probability the random variable of number of aces obtained in
Distribution the two drawn cards. Then, P ( X = 1) + P ( X = 2)
equals (JEE Main 2019)
50. The variance and standard deviation of the number
25 52 49 24
of heads in three tosses of a coin, are (a) (b) (c) (d)
169 169 169 169
3 3 3 3 4 3 1 1
(a) and (b) and (c) and (d) and 58. In a game, a man wins ` 100 if he gets 5 or 6 on a
2 4 4 2 9 2 2 2
throw of a fair die and loses ` 50 for getting any
51. In a dice game, a player pays a stake of ` 1 for each other number on the die. If he decides to throw the
throw of a die. She receives ` 5, if the die shows a 3, die either till he gets a five or a six or to a
` 2, if the die shows a 1 or 6 and nothing otherwise. maximum of three throws, then his expected
What is the player’s expected profit per throw over gain/loss (in rupees) is (JEE Main 2019)
a long series of throws? 400 400 400
(a) loss (b) loss (c) 0 (d) gain
(a) 0.50 (b) 0.20 (c) 0.70 (d) 0.90 3 9 3
52. For a random variable X, E ( X ) = 3 and E ( X 2 ) = 59. A box contains 15 green and 10 yellow balls. If 10
11. Then, variance of X is balls are randomly drawn one-by-one with
(a) 8 (b) 5 (c) 2 (d) 1 replacement, then the variance of the number of
green balls drawn is (JEE Main 2017)
53. An unbiased coin is tossed 5 times. Suppose that a 12 6
variable X is assigned the value k when k (a) (b) 6 (c) 4 (d)
5 25
consecutive heads are obtained for k = 3, 4, 5, 60. If the mean and variance of a random variable X
otherwise X takes the value -1. Then the expected having a Binomial distribution are 4 and 2
value of X, is (JEE Main 2020) respectively, then find the value of P ( X = 1) .
3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
(a) - (b) (c) (d) - (a) (b) (c) (d)
16 16 8 8 4 16 8 32
Advanced Probability 1017

ROUND II Mixed Bag

Only One Correct Option (a)
1
(b)
1
(c)
2
(d)
1
2 3 5 5
1. A man throws a fair coin a number of times and
gets 2 points for each head he throws and 1 point 8. Three natural numbers are taken at random from
for each tail he throws. The probability that he gets the set A = { x |1 £ x £ 100, x Î N }. The probability
exactly 6 points is that the AM of the numbers taken is 75, is
21 23 41 43 77
C2 25
C2 74
C72 75
C2
(a) (b) (c) (d) (a) (b) (c) (d)
32 32 64 64 100
C3 100
C3 100
C 97 100
C3
2. One function is selected from all the functions
9. In a multiple choice question there are four
F : S ® S, where S = {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5 , 6 }. The probability
alternative answers of which one or more than one
that it is onto function, is
is correct. A candidate will get marks on the
5 7 5 5
(a) (b) (c) (d) question only if he ticks the correct answer.
324 324 162 81
The candidate decides to tick answers at random.
3. A and B stand in ring along with 10 other persons. If he is allowed up to three chances of answer the
If the arrangement is at random, the probability answer the question, then the probability that he
that there are exactly 3 person between A and B, is will get marks on it is
1 2 3 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) 1 2 1 2
11 11 11 12 (a) (b) (c) (d)
3 3 5 15
4. If x1, x2 , ¼, x50 are fifty real numbers such that
10. Three letters are written to there different persons
xr < xr +1 for r = 1, 2, 3, ¼, 49. Five numbers out of
and addresses on the three envelopes are also
these are picked up at random. The probability that
written. Without looking at the addresses, the
the five numbers have x20 as the middle numbers, is
20 letters are kept in these envelopes. The probability
C 2 ´30 C 2 30
C 2 ´19 C 2
(a) 50
(b) 50 that all the letters are not placed into their right
C5 C5
19
envelopes is
C 2 ´31 C 2 1 1 1 5
(c) 50
(d) None of these (a) (b) (c) (d)
C5 2 3 6 6
5. A draws two cards at random from a pack of 52 11. 7 white balls and 3 black balls are placed in a row
cards. After returning them to the pack and at random. The probability that no two black balls
shuffling it, B draws two cards at random. The are adjacent is
probability that thier draws contain exactly one 1 7 2 1
comman card is (a) (b) (c) (d)
2 15 15 3
25 50
(a) (b) 12. In a game two players A and B take turns in
546 663
25 throwing a pair of fair dice starting with player A
(c) (d) None of these
663 and total of scores on the two dice, in each throw is
6. In a random experiment, if the success is thrice noted. A wins the game if he throws a total of 6
that of failure. If the experiment is repeated before B throws a total of 7 and B wins the game if
5 times, the probability that atleast 4 times he throws a total of 7 before A throws a total of six.
favourable is The game stops as soon as either of the players
1053 1003 wins. The probability of A winning the game is
(a) (b)
2048 2048 (JEE Main 2020)
1203 31 30 5 5
(c) (d) None of these (a) (b) (c) (d)
2048 61 61 31 6
7. One Indian and four American men and their wives 13. The minimum number of times one has to toss a
are to be seated randomly around a circular table. fair coin so that the probability of observing atleast
Then, the conditional probability that the Indian one head is atleast 90% is (JEE Main 2019)
man is seated adjacent to his wife given that each (a) 2 (b) 3 (c) 5 (d) 4
American man is seated adjacent to his wife, is
1018 JEE Main Mathematics

14. In a box, there are 20 cards, out of which 10 are 21. Box I contains 5 red and 2 blue balls, while box II
labelled as A and the remaining 10 are labelled as contains 2 red and 6 blue balls. A fair coin is tossed.
B. Cards are drawn at random, one after the other If it turns up head, a ball is drawn from box I, else
and with replacement, till a second A-card is a ball is drawn from box II. The probability ball
obtained. The probability that the second A-card drawn is from box I, if it is blue, is
appears before the third B-card is (JEE Main 2020) 27 8 21 29
(a) (b) (c) (d)
15 9 56 29 29 56
(a) (b)
16 16 22. A multiple choice examination has 5 questions.
13 11
(c) (d) Each question has three alternative answers of
16 16
which exactly one is correct. The probability that a
15. A random variable X has the following probability student will get 4 or more correct answers just by
distribution guessing is (JEE Main 2013)
X : 1 2 3 4 5 17 13 11 10
2 (a) (b) (c) (d)
P ( X) : K 2K K 2K 5K 2 35 35 35 35

Then P ( X > 2) is equal to (JEE Main 2020) 23. Three numbers are chosen at random without
1 23 1 7 replacement from {1, 2, 3,…,8}. The probability that
(a) (b) (c) (d)
6 36 36 12 their minimum is 3, given that their maximum is 6,
is
16. Let in a Binomial distribution, consisting of 3 1 1 2
5 independent trials, probabilities of exactly (a) (b) (c) (d)
8 5 4 5
1 and 2 successes be 0.4096 and 0.2048
respectively. Then, the probability of getting
24. Consider 5 independent Bernoulli’s trials each with
exactly 3 successes is equal to (JEE Main 2021)
probability of success p. If the probability of atleast
31
32 80 40 128 one failure is greater than or equal to , then p
(a) (b) (c) (d) 32
625 243 243 625
lies in the interval
17. When a missile is fired from a ship, the probability æ 3 11 ù é 1ù æ 11 ù æ1 3ù
that it is intercepted is 1/3. The probability that the (a) ç , ú (b) ê0, ú (c) ç ,1 (d) ç , ú
è 4 12 û ë 2û è 12 úû è2 4û
missile hits the target, given that it is not
intercepted is 3/4. If three missiles are fired Numerical Value Type Questions
independently from the ship, the probability that
all three hits the target, is
25. Four fair dice are thrown independently 27 times.
1 1 3 3 Then, the expected number of times, at least two
(a) (b) (c) (d) dice show up a three or a five, is …… .
12 8 8 4
(JEE Main 2020)
18. A second-order determinant is written down at
26. Let there be three independent events E1, E2 and
random using the numbers 1, –1 as elements. The
E3. The probability that only E1 occurs is a, only E2
probability that the value of the determinant is
occurs is b and only E3 occurs is l. Let ‘p’ denote the
non-zero is
probability of none of events occurs that satisfies
1 3 5 1
(a) (b) (c) (d) the equations ( a - 2b) p = ab and (b - 3g) p = 2bg. All
2 8 8 3
the given probabilities are assumed to lie in the
19. If E and F are two events with P ( E) £ P ( F ) > 0, interval (0, 1).
then Probability of occurrence of E1
Then, is equal to
(a) occurrence of E Þ occurrence of F Probability of occurrence of E3
(b) occurrence of F Þ occurrence of E (JEE Main 2021)

(c) non-occurrence of E Þ non-occurrence of F 1

27. The probability of a man hitting a target is . The
(d) None of the above implications hold 10
least number of shots required, so that the
20. Minimum number of times a fair coin must be
probability of his hitting the target at least once is
tossed so that the probability of getting atleast one
1
head is more than 99% is (JEE Main 2019) greater than , is ........... .
4 (JEE Main 2020)
(a) 8 (b) 6 (c) 7 (d) 5
Advanced Probability 1019

28. In a bombing attack, there is 50% chance that a none of events E1, E2 or E3 occurs satisfy the
bomb will hit the target. At least two independent equations ( a - 2 b) p = ab and (b - 3g) p = 2 bg. All
hits are required to destroy the target completely. the given probabilities are assumed to lie in the
Then the minimum number of bombs, that must be interval (0, 1).
dropped to ensure that there is at least 99% chance probability of occurrence of E1
Then, is equal to
of completely destroying the target, is ……… probability of occurrence of E3
(JEE Main 2020)
……… .
29. Of the three independent events E1, E2 and E3, the 30. A, B, C and D cut a pack of 52 cards successively in
probability that only E1 occurs is a, only E2 occurs the order given. If the person who cuts a spade first
is b and only E3 occurs is g. If the probability p that receives ` 350, then the expectation of A is (in `)
……… .

Answers
Round I
1. (c) 2. (d) 3. (c) 4. (a) 5. (d) 6. (a) 7. (c) 8. (a) 9. (c) 10. (c)
11. (a) 12. (a) 13. (b) 14. (a) 15. (b) 16. (c) 17. (d) 18. (c) 19. (a) 20. (c)
21. (d) 22. (a) 23. (d) 24. (a) 25. (b) 26. (c) 27. (c) 28. (d) 29. (d) 30. (d)
31. (c) 32. (c) 33. (c) 34. (b) 35. (d) 36. (d) 37. (d) 38. (b) 39. (d) 40. (a)
41. (a) 42. (c) 43. (d) 44. (a) 45. (a) 46. (c) 47. (c) 48. (b) 49. (b) 50. (b)
51. (a) 52. (c) 53. (c) 54. (c) 55. (d) 56. (c) 57. (a) 58. (c) 59. (a) 60. (d)

Round II
1. (d) 2. (a) 3. (b) 4. (b) 5. (b) 6. (a) 7. (c) 8. (c) 9. (c) 10. (b)
11. (b) 12. (b) 13. (d) 14. (d) 15. (b) 16. (a) 17. (b) 18. (a) 19. (d) 20. (c)
21. (b) 22. (c) 23. (b) 24. (b) 25. (11) 26. (6) 27. (3) 28. (11) 29. (6) 30. (128)