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The document discusses key concepts in project management related to activity times, including Earliest Start Time (EST), Earliest Finish Time (EFT), Latest Start Time (LST), and various types of float such as Total Float, Free Float, and Independent Float. It also introduces the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) network, emphasizing the importance of critical paths and time estimates for project scheduling. Additionally, it covers statistical terms and probability distributions relevant to project completion times.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
14 views10 pages

Post A Status

The document discusses key concepts in project management related to activity times, including Earliest Start Time (EST), Earliest Finish Time (EFT), Latest Start Time (LST), and various types of float such as Total Float, Free Float, and Independent Float. It also introduces the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) network, emphasizing the importance of critical paths and time estimates for project scheduling. Additionally, it covers statistical terms and probability distributions relevant to project completion times.

Uploaded by

Servi Konwar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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I

Start and Finish times of activity: Since CPM net i.e., Tf = (½- E.J -di
works are activity oriented, the following activity
times are useful for network computations. 15

Earliest Start Time (EST): It is the ear1iest possible time lj= 37


Lt= 22
at which an activity can start. Hence it is equal to
TF= (37-20) - 15 =2
the ear1iest event time associated with the tail of the
activity arrow.
(b) free Float: It is that portion of the positive totol
Thus EST = Ear1iest event time at its tail
float that can be used by an activity without
delaying any succeeding activity.
Eartlest Finish Time {EFT): It is the ear1iest time by which
an activity can be finished. Naturally, it is equal to
It is amount of time by which an actiVity con be
the sum of the ear1iest start time of an activity and
delayed without affecting the EST of any other
the time required for its completion.
activity in a project.
EFT= Ear1iest start time + Activity duration

It is based on the possibility that all the events


latest Start nme {LST): It is the latest possible time
occur at their ear1iest times, i.e .. all activities
at which an activity can start without delaying the
start as ear1y as possible.
completion date of the project.
: . FF for (i - j) = (~ - !; ) - d,

Latest Rnlsh nme (LFT): It is the latest time by which


It is the excess of available time over the
an activity can be finished without delaying the
required time when the activity. as well as its
completion of the project. Naturally, it is equal to
successor activity start as earty as possible.
latest allowable time for the event at the head of
the arrow.
It is numerically equal to the difference of the
LFT = Latest event time at the head of activity arrow
total float and head event slack.

5.2 Float
FF= TF- (½- Ei)
The term is associated with activity times. It denotes
(c) Independent float {If} : It is the excess of
the range within which an activity start time (or)
minimum available time over the. required
its finish time may fluctuate without affecting the
activity duration. It gives us an idea about the
completion of the project.
excess time that exists if the preceding activity
(a) Total Float {Tf}: It is the time span by which
ends as late as possible and the succeeding
the starting (or finishing) of an activity can be
activity starts as ear1y as possible.
delayed without delaying the completion of
IF = Minimum available time-Activity time
the project. It is also equal to the time that is
= (Ei - ~)-di
the excess of the maximum available time over
Independent float is numerically equal to the
the activity time.
free float minus Tail event slack.
:. Total float= (Maximum time available -
If= FF - (~ - E;)
time require to perform the activity) .

Hydcraba d • Delhl • eh opa I • Punc • Bhubanc,war • Luck.now • Patna • BcngalW'\l • Chcnnai • Vijayaw.da • V'nq • Tinlplti • Kubq,,aDy • Kolbh.
[r-:-t1~A.-~----G7"""":'"46)--:;;;;.
Note:
;;;;;.-•s
tiVity 30 _ 60 are as follows:
1. Independent float is a part of free float.
Floats tor Ac = =
(37-16)-14 7 days
Total float
2. Negative value of independent float is taken
Free float
=
_
(33-16) -14 =3days
, _ = days
as zero
Independent float - (33- 16 14 3
Interfering floa t -- TF -ff = 4 days
(d ) lnlettertng float(IFT) = It is equal to the difference
between total float and the free float. 5.3 PERT NETWORKS:
PERT: Programme Evaluation and Review
IFT = TF -FF
Technique. . .
Crllk:al path: It is the longest path through the Developed b Y Us Navy in consultation With
network and time along this path gives the project others, in 1957.
duration. It is the path joining critical activities. The Event oriented network diagram.
More emphasIs. wr·ii be given on events.
activities on the critical path are those activities
which have total float equal to zero. Used for scheduling and controlling the projects
whose activities possess considerable degree
ffflpOltawtl points: of uncertainty in their performance time.
1. Critical path starts from the initial event and Ex: Research and Development (R & D)
ends a t the end event of network. All events projects which are non repetitive and referred
and activities lying along the critical path are to as once through.
critical. Time is the most essential and basic variable in
2. Critical path passes through those events PERT system. Probabilistic approach is followed
where slack is zero. Although this is necessary to estimate the duration of an activity.
con<frtion but it is not sufficient. In order to
identify the critical path, the float concept is Time Estimates: To toke uncertainties into account,
more useful since it provides both necessary PERT network uses three types of time estimates.
and sufficient condition for the activity to be (p) Optimistic: Time (t0 ): Shortest time for an activity,
critical if everything goes well.

3. There con be more than one critical path in a (b) Pessimistic: Time (tP): Longest time, if everything
network. and depending upon the total float goes wrong. (Doesn't include catastrophic
value, degree of criticality con be assigned to effects like earth quake, floods, labour strike,
a particular path. fire etc.)

4. N.o n critical activities have flexibilities in their (c) Most Ukely Time (t,): Time, if normal conditions
prevail.
start time (or) finish time.
Ei= 16 EJ= 33
14 Certain Statlstlc:al Terms:
1------~ 60
(a) Mean, (t1 +t2 +t3 + ...... +tn)
Li= 16 Li= 37 tm
n
If TF < 0, super critical activity (b) Deviation (6) : Difference between time under
TF = o. critical activity consideration and mean time.
TF > O, sub critic;:.o=l~a:.:c:.:.t:... ity: __ _ _ _ _ _---:---:---:-:---:;- - -6
iv:... - =_t _- _tm_ _ _ _ _ _- ,
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{c) Variance (o-2): Mean of square of deviations. (b) Beta Distribution:

f(t)

i
JI\__ _LIL
I : I I I I
I I I I f I
Significance of the variance: More the variance
value. the more will be uncertainty. to

f3-distribution probability curve is not


(d) Standard Devlaffon (cr) : It is the square root of
variance symmetrical about its apex.
Activities , of a PERT network follow
f3-distribution.

For (3-distribution, cr = ful


r
6
{e) Mode: The tallest peak of the distribution curve
is called the 'mode ', corresponding to the
Variance, o' • ~ ; t.
most likely time.

Probability Distribution: Expected Time or Average Time or Mean Time for an


'(a) Normal Distribution: activity of a PERT Network:
Probability curve is symmetrical about the centre.
(t 0 +4tL +tp)
tE = 6
f(t) • Expected Time means, the time which has 50%

i •
probability for completion.
In PERT analysis. Expected Time {tE) is taken as
the basis for finding critical path.
mean
---+t
Expected Time for acflvltles In series :
f{t) = probability func tion
(a) When a number of activities are in series. the

(crP -tJ expected time for the path, along the activities
For Normal Distribution {cr) can be found by first finding the 't/ for each
6
activity and then taking their sum.
Expected Time f~r a path= l: te
(b) Alternatively, the Optimistic Time (t0 ). the Most
Likely Time (t1) and the Pessimistic Time (tp) of
the path can be calculated. first by taking the
µ-3a µ-2a µ-a a µ+a µ+2a µ+3o sum of all to, ti and tp respectively and then 'te'
can be computed

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Expec:fed Time for a path
.,.. Rl&SFFE§g
Critical path is: (1) - (3) - (6) - (~) - (9) and totat
=(r 1 0 + 4 r t, + r tp) / 6 duration of the project is 46 units.
Ex: Two a ctivities 'A' and 'B ' in a path hove the
following time estimates.
5.4 PERT- NETWORK Analysis:
Activity A: t0 = 2, t, = 6. tP = 10 days Slack(S): The difference between the latest
Activity B : t 0 = 2. t, = 4, t = 6 days allowable time and the earliest expected time
0

of an event.
Method A: : . Slack for any event, S = T, - Te
teof A= (l/6) [2+4x6+10] Slack gives the idea of 'time to spore, .
= 6doys Slack means more time to work, less to worry
teof B = (1 / 6) (2 + 4 x 4 + 6] = 4 days about.
Total tE = 6 + 4 = 10 days Slack reveals about those areas which hove an
excess of resources from which trade off can
Method B: The expected time tE be rearranged.
= (1 / 6) ((2 + ~) + 4 (6 + 4) + (10 + 6)] Slack also spots those areas which ore trouble
= 10 days areas i.e., those areas of zero (or) minimum
Example 1:
slack.
The flow net of activities of a project is given in Slack can be positive, zero or negative.
the following figure. The duration of activities are depending upon the relationship between 'T,'
indicated along the arrows
and 'Te',
(ESE-1995)
9
Positive Slack:
2 I----'----+(
When T, > TE for an event. It is on indication of an
6
ahead of schedule condition (excess resources).

14
Zero Slack:
S 12 When T, =\for an event. It is an indication of a on-
9 schedule condition.
10
8 15 Negative Slack:
The critical path of the activities is along When scheduled time of completion, \< TE. It is an
~)1-2-4-7-9 (~l-3-5-7-9 indication of a behind of schedule condition (Lack
(c) 1-3-6-8-9 (d) 1-3--5-6-8-9 of resources) .
Ans: (c) Critical Path: A critical path is the one which
Sol: Critical path is the longest path. in terms of time connects the events having zero (or) minimum slack
Path:(1 )-(2)-(4)-(7)-(9) . Total duration= 41 limes. 11 is the longest path (time wise) connecting
Poth:(] )-(3)-(5)-(7)-(9) . Total duration= 43. the initial and end event.
Poth:(! )-(3)-(5)-(6)-(8)-(9).Total durotion=45. Ex: Consider the network shown below.
Poth: (1 )-(3)-(6)-(8)-(9) . Total duration= 46.

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11MK4~
The slacks of events ( 1), (2) and (5) are Zero and it is DetermlnaHon of probablllfy for compleHon of a
the path consuming maximum Time for completion project In a given schedule:
of project.
Stepl: Determine the standard deviation (cr) for the

T, =8 critical path.
cr = / sum of variances along critical path

Step 2: Determine probability factor 'z' by the


(Ts-TE)
relation, Z = -'----'"-----='--'- .
0

4
Ts = 20 Note:
1. If 'Z' is positive, the chances of completing the
T, = 10 project in time is more than 50%.
2. If 'Z ' is zero, the chances of completing the
Path 1 - 2 - 5 is the critical path. project in time is 50%.
Note that I: te of the activities along the critical 3. If 'Z' is negative, the chances of completing
path is equal to 'Te' of the last event. the project in time is less than 50%.

Central Limit Theorem: This theorem states that if Step 3: For different values of 'Z ', probability is
there ore 'n' activities involved on a critical path known from standard normal distribution table,
,each activity having for its time of completion its given aside.
own J}-distribution with mean values µ1, 11,i, •.•• •••.• ., µn Probability distribution is the curve, with its
,and standard deviations cr1, cr2 , ••• ••• ••• •••• ., crn then height so standardized that the area under the
the time for completion of the project as a whole curve is equal to unity. Normal distribution is
will approximately follow a normal distribution with also called Gaussian distribution .
mean and variance as
µ = µ, + 11,i + ........... ..... + µn Probablllfy Table:
cr2 = cr,2 + cr/ + ............ + cr/
z Probablllty (%)
For a project networ1<, -3 0.13
cr = / sum of variances along critical path -2 2.30
-1 15.90
Probability factor or normal deviate, Z:
0 50
Z= (T, -TE)
1 100-15.90=84.10
0
2 100- 2.30 = 97 .70
TS= Scheduled completion time of the project,
3 100-0.13 = 99 .87
TE= Earliest expected time of the project,
o = standard deviation for the critical path

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(

l:l·f-iSi·liiJ•Ji#Hl§l•i•l•i-t#lei'.§

PERT Vs CPM

PERT CPM

l It is basi_~a!IY analytic in concept and deals with It is basically synthesizing in concept and deals with
Probab1ilst1c Network. Deterministic network.
2 Three time estimates for activities linking two Only one time estimate for activities.
events
3 It is an event oriented diagram It is an activity oriented diagram
4 Times are not related to cost Times are related to cost
n~e is the controlling factor and attention is cost is the controlling factor and attention is paid
5
paid to minimize time to optimize the cost.
It is _used for research and development It is used for repetition projects such as construction
6 pro1ects and other projects involving jobs, which are based on more or less stable
uncertainty technology.
Th_e critical path is determined on the event The critical path is determined on activity oriented
7
onented and slack philosophy and float philosophy.

(b) identify the activities which con be


Classroom Practice Questions delayed without affecting the occurrence
of preceding activity
01. A CPM network is (c) identify the activities which can be
(a) activity oriented delayed without affecting the total float
(b) event oriented of both preceding as well as succeeding
(c) both activity as well as event activities.
(d) neither activity nor event (d) establish priorities.

02. The Eor1iest Finish nme (EFT) of an activity is 04. Whenever an activity has zero total float, then
(a) Equal to the eor1iest start time of activity (a) free float of the activity is also zero but its
plus the activity duration. independent float need not be zero
(b) Equal to the eor1iest start time of activity (b) independent float of the activity is also
minus the activity duration. zero but its free float need not be zero
(c) Equal to ear1iest event time for the node (c) both free float onp independent float of
from which the activity arrow originates. the activity are zero
(d) Less than ear1iest event time for the node (d) both free float and independent float of
at which the activity arrow terminates. the activity need not be zero

05. The independent float affects


03. Free float is determined to
(a) only preceding activities
(a) identify the activities which can be
(b) only succeeding activities
delayed without affecting the occurrence
(c) only the particular activity involved
of succeeding activity
(d) both the preceding and succeeding
activities
A.CJ J ll,!!llll'l'rntg Pulil!\.a\1011, Hyderabad • Delhi• Bhopal • Punt• Bhubanu war • Lucknow . Patna. Bengaluru. Chc-nnai . Vijayawada . Viz.ag . Tirupati • Kukatpall)' • Kolb.ta

r.
I
06. If the total float for the various activities are as (b) the activities connecting the events
follows:
having zero slack, lie on the critical path
Activity
Total float (c) the critical path consumes the maximum
1-2
3 time
2-3
5 (d) All the above
3-4 6
4-5 4 12. Match List - I (Description of activity floats)
The most important activity is with List - II (Names of the floats) and select
(0) 1-2 (b) 2-3 the correct answer using the codes given the
(C1) 3-4 (d) 4-5 lists:
List- I
07. lhe difference between the time available to A. Earliest start time of successor activity

do the job and the time required to do the job, minus earliest start time of the activity
is ,lcnown under consideration minus the duration
(a) event B. Time available for an activity performance
(b) float
minus the duration of the activity.
(c) duration (d) constraint
C. Excess of minimum available time over the
required activity duration.
,08. The critical activity has
D. Difference between total and free float of
,(a) maximum float (b) minimum float an activity.
1(c) zero float (d) none of these List- II
1. Total float
09. iJhe time by which activity completion time 2. Free float
can be delayed without affecting the start of 3. Interfering float
succeeding activities, is known as 4. Independent float
(a) duration (b) total float Codes:
,(c) free float (d) interfering float A B C D
(a) 1 2 3 4
(b) 1 2 4 3
JIO. Pick: up the correct statement from the
(c) 2 3 4
fdllowing.
(d) 2 4 3
(al CPM analysis is activity oriented
(b) CPM does not make any allowance for
13. Match List - I (Item) with List - II (Characteristic)
the uncertainties in the duration of time and select the correct answer using the codes
(c) In CPM, the time is related to cost given below the lists:
'(d) All the above
List- I List- II
11. Pick: up the correct statement from the A. Activity 1. Resource less element
following. B. Event 2. Resource consuming element
(a) the difference of latest occurrence time C . Dummy 3. Spare time
and earliest expected time, is called slack D. Float 4. Instantaneous stage

Hyderabad. Delhi • Bhopal • Pune • Bhubant5war • Lucknow • Patna • Bengaluru • Chennal . Vijayawada . Vi.ug • 1!rupali • Kukatpally. Kolkata
[•~~ M•W¼i·liii-i¥Wi;±
Codes:
17 _ For a given activity. the optimistic time. the
A B C D most probable estimates and pessimistic time
(a) 1 4 3 2 are 3. 4 & 5, days respectively. The expected
(b) 2 1 4 3 time is
(c ) 2 4 l 3 (b) 4doys
(a) 2 days
(d) 3 4 2 (c) 5 days (d) 6 days

14. Fram the network shown in the figure below


(the number on each arrow denotes the time 18. The distinction between PERT and CPM is that:
duration of activity in days) . the earliest start (a) PERT uses computers while CPM is manual
time. in days for activity 5-6 is (b) PERT uses probabilistic estimates of activity
1
duration while CPM does not.
(c) PERT allows crashing while CPM does not
(d) PERT uses dummy activities while CPM
does not

(o) 8 19. A PERT network is


(b) 7
(c) 9 (a) activity oriented
(d) 11
(b) event oriented
15. A network of seven activities is shown in the (c) both activity as well as event
diagram given above. The respective activity (d) neither activity nor event
durations ore shown beside the arrows.
Whic h one of the following is the total float in
20. In the network shown in the figure activity 3 - 6
AB. the tota l float in CE and free float in EF.
can be started only when
respectively ?

(a) activity 2 - 3 is completed


(a) 2, 2, 3 (b) 3. 3, 2
(c) 3. 2, 2 (d) 2, 3, 2
(b) activity 2 - 4 is completed.
(c) activities l - 2 and 2- 3 ore completed
16. If the value of variance is more (d) activities 2 - 3 and 2 _ 4 ore completed
(o) certainty is more
21 · In th e network shown in above figure event 6 is
(b) probability of certainty is more
(c) uncertainty is more preceded by

(d) probability distribution curve shall be (a) event 3 only (b) events 3 &
having an unsymmetrical shape (c) event 4 only (d) events 2 & 4

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g en nat • Vijayawada • Vi~ • 1'i rupail • Kuka1pall)' , Kolkata
s-••~
22. The area under the P - distribution curve is (a)
divided into two equal halves by a vertical (b)
ordinate through
(c)
(a) optimistic time
(d)
(b) most likely time
(c) pessimistic time
27. In PERT the time estimates of activities and
(di expected time
probability of their occurrence follow
(a) normal distribution
23. If the optimistic time. most likely time and (b) Poisson's distribution
pessimistic time for an activity are 8. 9 and 13 (c) p - distribution
respectively, the expected time and variance (d) binomial distribution
are respectively.
(a) 9.5 and (25/36) 28. A project is expected to take 24 months along
(b) 9.5 and (5/6) the critical path having a standard deviation
(c) 8.5 and (25/36) of 3.6 months. What is the probabmty of
(d) 8.5 and (5/6) completion with in
(a) 24 months (b) 30 months ?
24. In a network critical path Given
(a) is always the shortest path
z 0 -0.6 -1.67 1.67
(b) is always the longest path
Probability (%) 50 27.4 4.8 95.2
(c) may be the shortest path
(d) may be the longest path
29. A project is expected to take 60 weeks
with a variance of 20.25. Within how many
25. Dual role events are those events which act
weeks would the project be expected to be
(a) head events for more than one activity
completed with the probability of
(b) tail events for more than one activity
(a) 90% (b) 35%
(c) head events and tail events
(d) neither tail events nor head events Probability Table:
z -0.387 -1 .67 1 1.28 1.67
26. The flow net of the activities of a project is P(%) 35 5 84 90 95
shown in fig. The duration of the activities are
written along their arrows. The critical path of
30. In the following figure. the time estimates
the activities is along
in days for each activity are indicated.
Determine the critical path and the probability
B 8 ', 4 H of completing the project in 36 days. The non
2 ', 7 8 exceedence probability (Pr) for various values
D ',,
'' of the probability factor Z is as follows.
'4

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(

I)· Generally PERT is preferred ova


32 statement ( ·
· CPM for th e purpose of project eva luation.

statemen t (I ·
I)· PERT is based on the approacti
..
ofmu It.rp le time estimates for each . activtty.
(a) Both A and R are true and R rs the correct
explanation of A
(b) Both A and R are true but R is NOT the
correct explanation of A
z 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 (c) A is true but R is false
Pr(%) 84.13 86.43 88.49 90.32 (d) A is false but R is true

31. There are four consecutive activities in a


simple linear network, each with mean
duration of T and each with 'k' as the
standard deviation of its duration. The overall
project duration through these activities is likely
to be in the range
(a ) 4 T±k (b) 4 T± 2k
(c) 4 T± 4k (d) 4 T ± 6k

KEYforCRPQ
01 . (a) 02. (a) 03. (a) 04. (c) 05. (d) 06. (a) 07. (d) 08. (c) 09. (c) 10. (d)
11. (d) 12. (d) 13. (c) 14. (c) 15. (c) 16. (c) 17. (b) 18. (b) 19. (b) 20. (d)
21 . (a) 22. (d) 23. (b) 24. (b) 25. (c) 26. (c) 27. (c) 28. (50%, 95.2%)
29. (65.76 weeks & 58.25 seeks) 30. (90.32%) 31. (d) 32. (a)

AC[ J,ngm«nng l'uhlica110m Hyderabad , Delhi • Bhopal • Pun, • Bhubaneowu • Lucknow • Patna • Bengaluru , ChennaJ , Vijayawada , Vlug , Tirupali , Kulcatpally , Koilcata

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