Yibeltal Negussie

Bahir Dar University

Department of Mathematics
March, 2022

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 Chapter 1
Introduction to Mathematical Modeling
Outlines
1.1 Models and Reality
1.2 Mathematical Modeling
1.3 Properties of Models
1.4 Importance of Mathematical Modeling
1.5 Limitations of Mathematical Modeling
1.6 Steps of Mathematical Modeling
1.7 Examples of Models
1.8 Types of Models
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 1.1 Models and Reality
Reality
 Actual or real world phenomenon
it can be one of the following:
 Physical system
 Biological system
 Social system
 Engineering
 Ecological system
 Finance
 Economics
 Industry
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Model
 A simplified representation of a reality used for
analyzing, solving problems or making
decisions.
We can model using:
 Physical object
 Computer programs (simulations)
 Graphs
 Mathematical equations

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 Models

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 1.2 Mathematical Modeling
 Mathematical Model
A formula or an equation that expresses a real phenomenon (system) in mathematical
terms.
 Mathematical Modeling
 The process of using mathematical tools and methods to explain the real world
situations.
 It is an art of translating problems from real-world phenomenon into tractable
mathematical formulations whose theoretical and numerical analysis provides
insight, guidance, and answers about the system under study.
 Mathematical modeling is broadly used in physics, chemistry, life science,
engineering, medicine, social science, economics, management , industry and
many other disciplines.
 Famous Mathematical Models in Literature
 Newton’s 2nd Law of Motion: F = ma
 Ohm’s Law: V=IR
 Kepler’s 3rd Law: T= cR3/2
 Boyle’s Law: PV=constant
 Einstein’s Formula E=mc2

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1.3 Properties of Models
 A model is a simplified picture of the reality. It
has some of the characteristics of the reality
but not all of them.
 Models ignore the negligible detail of the
reality and focus on essential features of the
reality.
 Models cannot replace perfectly the reality.
 Simplification is an important part of the
modeling process; otherwise the mathematical
problem might be intractable.

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 … Continued
 A mathematical model is an abstract,
simplified, mathematical construction related
to a part of reality and created for a particular
purpose.
 As far as a model is concerned, the real-
world (the system) can be divided into three
parts :
1) Things whose effects are neglected.
2) Things that affect the model but whose
behavior is not designed to study by the
model.
3) Things whose behavior is designed to study
by the model.
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 Definitions of Basic Terminologies
 Things ( such as constants, functions or
parameters) that affect the model and if the
model is not designed to study their behavior
are said to be exogenous/input/independent
variables.
 If the model doesn’t explain the behavior of certain
variables, then those variables are exogenous.
 Things (such as constants, functions or
parameters) where the model is designed to
study their behavior are said to be
endogenous/output/dependent variables.
 An endogenous variable is one that is explained by a
model
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1.4 Importance of Mathematical Modeling
1) To gain deeper understanding of reality
 to build and test theories
 to compare hypothesis with data
 to clarify assumptions, variables and parameters
2) To predict the behavior of the system in the future
 weather prediction
 extinction of species
 drug effect in humans
3) To simulate expensive, impractical or impossible experiments
 space flights
 nuclear reactor design
 atom investigation
4) To aid decision making
 managers
 policy makers
 planners
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1.5 Limitations of Mathematical Modeling
1) Inadequate to represent real system
(as real systems are too complex to be
represented by just a simple model)
2) Assumption of the future will be like the past
(as real systems could be influenced by random
variables/factors)
3) Input data may be uncertain
(the input data may be secondary or tertiary or may be didn’t use
the right device or method to collect in the first place)
4) Depends on the modeler ability
(Developing a model requires background knowledge about the
system being studied and demands to find the delicate balance
between simple and complicated model to represent the system
under study)

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1.6 Steps of Mathematical Modeling Formulation

Step 1: Identify the problem

Step 2: Make assumptions
Step 3: Identify the variables
Step 4: Construct the model
Step 5: Solve the model
Step 6: Interpret the model
Step 7: Verify the model
Step 8: Implement the Model

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Basic facets of Model Building
1) Formulate the Problem - What is it that you
wish to know?
2) Outline the Model- At this stage:
• Identify the known and unknown variables.
• Identify the relationships between the known
and unknown variables.
• Assess the effect of any assumption made on
the relationship between the variables in the
problem.

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…Contd.
3) Check Usefulness - Can you obtain the
needed data and then use it in the model to
make the predictions you want?
 Is it feasible to obtain the input data and
use it in the model to make predictions?
4) Test the Model - Use the model to make
predictions that can be checked against data or
common sense or results on the literature.

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Real World Mathematical World

Real-world Make Identify

Problem Assumptions the variables

Model Formulation Mathematical

Model

Real-world Interpret Solve

solution Solutions the Model
Model
Interpretation
Compare Model Refinement
with Data

The Mathematical Modeling process

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1.7 Examples of Models
Example 1: Suppose we are interested to
determine what the level of production of Bahir
Dar Textile factory should be to maximize profits.
What are the endogenous and exogenous
variables in the model of this problem?
Endogenous variables: Exogenous variables:

profits level of production, market situation

etc.

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Ex: Identify the endo/exogenous
variables for the following systems.
1) Consider a manufacturing plant which produces
white sugar.
If we are interested to maximize the amount of
product to be produced, identify the possible
endo/exogenous variables of the system.
 Ans:
•Endogenous variables: amount of white sugar
•Exogenous variables: pests, weather, even natural
disaster; what about price of the product?
NB: Variables may change from endo to exo or vice
versa depending on the system under study.
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Example 2: Predict how population grow
numerically over a long term.
Suppose we want to predict how a population will
grow numerically over a few generations/long
terms.
• Exogenous (independent) variables
be the net reproduction rate r (birth rate minus death
rate) per individual, the time t, initial population N(0).
• Endogenous variable
be the size of the population at time t, N(t)

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 … Continued
To obtain a simple model,
 we ignore time lag effect;
(i.e. we assume that only the present value of N and
its derivatives are relevant in determining the future
values of N.)
The rate 1 dN
r ( ) is constant.
N dt
This assumption leads to the differential equation
1 dN
( ) r
N dt
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 1 dN
( )r
N dt
dN
 rN
dt
dN
  rdt
N
dN
   rdt
N
 ln( N )  rt  C
 N  e rt.e c
3/28/2022  N  N 0e rt , where N 0  e c 20
Study the behavior of your model in limiting cases
(i.e. as time gets very large (𝑡 → ∞))

N(t)→ 0 or N(t)→ ∞ depending on the nature of 𝑟:

If 𝑟 = 0, then N(t)=𝑁0 .
If 𝑟 > 0, then N(t)→ ∞.
If 𝑟 < 0, then N(t)→ 0.

• Our test of the model for long term growth

indicates that it must be modified (rejected);
however, it may be useful for short term
predictions.
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 Consider the Logistic Population Model

• Assumptions:
 we ignore time lag effect
The environment has carrying capacity, K
The net growth rate, r is constant
Logistic Model:
𝒅𝑵 𝑵
= 𝒓𝑵(𝟏 − ),
𝒅𝒕 𝑲

where 𝑵(𝒕) is the population size at a given

time t.
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 Analytic (Closed) Solution

𝒅𝑵 𝑵
= 𝒓𝑵(𝟏 − )
𝒅𝒕 𝑲

𝒅𝑵 𝒓𝒅𝒕
⟹ =
𝑵(𝑲 − 𝑵) 𝑲
Integrating both sides wrt their respective
variables, we obtain
𝑑𝑁 𝑟
⟹ = 𝑑𝑡.
𝑁(𝐾 − 𝑁) 𝐾
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 …Continued

𝑲
Therefore, 𝑵 𝒕 = 𝑲−𝑵𝟎 −𝒓𝒕 .
𝟏+ 𝒆
𝑵𝟎

Consider the different values r in the long term:

If 𝒓 = 𝟎, then N(t)=𝑵𝟎 .
If 𝒓 > 𝟎, then N(t)→ 𝐊.
If 𝒓 < 𝟎, then N(t)→ 𝟎.

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 MatLab Plots

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 Does the modification serve its
purpose?

Can it be further improved?

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Example 3: Describe a falling parachutist’s
velocity released from rest.

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• Assumption
- The motion of the parachutist is governed by Newton 2nd Law of
Motion
- Only gravitational force is acting on the parachutist
- Neglect Air resistance

• Variables
Mass(m), time(t), velocity(v), gravitational acceleration(g)
• Construct the Model
- From Newton 2nd Law of Motion
Net Force = Mass X Acceleration

F  ma, a 
dv
dt

F  mg
ma  mg
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 dv
m  mg
dt
dv
 g
dt
•Solve the model
dv  gdt
using calculus
v(t )  gt  c
Since v(0) = 0, then c = 0.
Hence ,
v (t )  gt
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 • Verification

m= 68.1kg, g = 9.8m/s2
velocity from actual measurement, v

t(s) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

v(m/s) 0.00 10.0 16.3 23.0 27.5 31.0 35.6 39.0 41.5 42.9 45.0 46.0 45.5 46.0 49.0 50.0

velocity calculated from the model, vm1

t(s) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

v(m/s) 0.0 9.8 19.6 29.4 39.2 49.0 58.8 68.6 78.4 88.2 98.0 107.8 117.6 127.4 137.2 147.0

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 MATLAB Graphs to compare
150
v
vm1

100
velocity(m/s)

50

0
0 5 10 15
time(s)

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The model doesn’t explain the real-world situation.

we need to return to the construction step and go through the

modeling process.

Alternative Assumption:
 The forces acting on the parachutist are gravitational
force and upward force of air resistance.

 Assume the upward force due to air resistance is

proportional to its velocity.
Fu  cv, where c is a drag coefficient ( kg / s)
Hence ,
Fnet  mg  cv
ma  mg  cv
dv
m  mg  cv
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Hence we have a new model for the
velocity is

dv c
 vg
dt m
Solving this model with methods of solving
differential equations, we obtain

gm  (
c
)t 
v(t )  1  e m

c  
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m=68.1kg, g=9.8m/s, c = 12.5kg/s
Velocity calculated using this model, vm2
t(s) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

v(m/s) 0.000 8.893 16.405 22.607 27.769 32.065 35.641 38.617 41.095 43.156 44.872 46.301 47.490 48.479 49.303 49.988

50

v
40 vm2

MATLAB graphs
velocity(m/s)

30

20

10

0
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time(s)
 MATLAB Plots Altogether!
150
v
vm1
vm2
100
velocity(m/s)

50

0
0 5 10 15
time(s)

 We conclude that the second model is better than the

first model to describe the velocity of the parachutist.
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1.8 Types of Models
 Models can be classified based on
different Criterion:
1) (Deterministic Vs Stochastic Model)
 Deterministic Model: if the outcome of the
model ignores random variation and always predict
the same outcome from a given starting point.
Example: Known chemical reactions; logistic model for
population growth
 Stochastic Model: if the model is more
statistical in nature (that do involve random variables)
and so may predict the distribution of possible
outcomes.
Probability, uncertainty, randomness are involved to
predict results.
Example: Diffussion Model, Movement of Animals
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Deterministic model:
X Y
Given the input data, the model gives the same
out put
Stochastic model:
Y1
X Y2
Y3
Given the input data, the model gives variable out
put
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 2) (Empirical Vs Mechanistic Model)
• Empirical Model
- Model based on numerical data.
• Mechanistic Model
- Model based assumptions about scientific
principles that underlie the phenomena being
modeled.
3) (Discrete Vs Continuous Model)
• Discrete Model
- All variables in the model are discrete.
• Continuous Model
- All variables in the model are continuous.
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4) (Static Vs Dynamic Model)

• Static Model
 Model which consider a system does not change
over time.
-- a system at an equilibrium or steady state.
• Dynamic Model
- Model which consider a system that changes over
time.

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 End of Chapter 1!

Thank you!

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