CHAPTER 4

RANDOM VARIABLE
Definition 1.
A random variable is a numerical quantity that is generated by a random
experiment. Random Variables “rv” are usually denoted by capital letters, such as X
or Z, and the actual values that they can take by lowercase letters, such as x and z.

Example 1.
Variables Experiment Number X Possible Values of X
Roll two fair dice Sum of the number of dots 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11,
on the top faces 12
Flip a fair coin repeatedly Number of tosses until the 1, 2, 3,4, …
coin lands heads
Measure the voltage at an Voltage measured 118 ≤ x ≤ 122
electrical outlet
Operate a light bulb until it Time until the bulb burns 0≤x<∞
burns out out

Definition 2.
The point function X(s) is called a random variable if:
a. it is a finite real-valued function defined on the sample space of a random
experiment for which the probability function is defined.
b. For every real number x, the set {s: X(s) ≤ x} is an event.

Note.
i. The relation X = X(s) takes every element s in S of the probability space
onto a point X on the real line R = (-ꝏ, ꝏ)
ii. In notation, the dependence of random variable X(s) on s will be omitted for
convenience.
iii. The second condition stated in definition 2 is the so-called ‘measurability
condition’. It ensures that it is meaningful to consider the probability of event
X(s) ≤ x for every x or more generally, the probability of any finite or
countably infinite combination of such events.

Definition 3.
The set {x є R| x = X(s), s є S} is called the space of the random variable X.

Example 2.
Consider the coin tossing experiment. Construct a random variable X for this
experiment. What is the space of this random variable X?

Solution.
The sample space of this experiment is given by S = {Head, Tail}. Let us define
a function from S into the set of reals as follows:
X(Head) = 0
X(Tail) = 1.
 Then X is a valid map and thus by our definition of random variable, it is a
random variable for the coin tossing experiment. The space of this random variable is
R(x) = {0, 1}.

Example 3.
The sample space below gives a detailed description of the possible outcomes
when one tosses a coin three times

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

However, if one is concerned only with the number of tails that fall, then the
numerical value of 0, 1, 2, or 3 will be assigned to each sample point. The number 0,
1, 2, or 3 are values assumed by a random variable, say X which represents the
number of tails that occurs when a coin is tossed three times.

Example 4.
Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from a box containing
3 yellow balls and 4 blue balls. The possible outcomes and the values of x of the
random variable X, where X is the number of blue balls are:

x P(x)
0 P(X=x) = 2/50
1 P(X=x) =11/50
2 P(X=x) =23/50
3 P(X=x) =9/50
4 P(X=x) =4/50
5 P(X=x) =1/50

Example 5.
A child psychologist is interested in the number of times a newborn baby’s
crying wakes its mother after midnight. For a random sample of 50 mothers, the
following information was obtained. Let X = the number of times a newborn wakes its
mother after midnight. For this example, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
P(x) = probability that X takes on a value x.

Sample space X
BB 2
BY 1
YB 1
YY 0
 DISCRETE rv

Definition 1.
If the space of random variable X is countable, then X is called a discrete
random variable.

Definition 2.
The random variable X is called a discrete random variable if it is defined over
a sample space having a finite or a countably infinite number of sample points.

Example 1.
In an introductory statistics class of 50 students, there are 11 freshmen, 19
sophomores, 14 juniors and 6 seniors. One student is selected at random. What is the
sample space of this experiment? Construct a random variable X for this sample space
and then find its space.

Solution.
The sample space of this random experiment is
S = {Fr, So, Jr, Sr}.

Example 2.
A pair of die consisting of a six-sided die and a four-sided die is rolled and the
sum is determined. Let the random variable X denote this sum. Find the sample
space?

{(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

S= (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)}

The space of the random variable X is given by

RX = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

Example 3.
A fair coin is tossed 3 times. Let the random variable X denote the number of
heads in 3 tosses of the coin. Find the sample space?

The sample space S of this experiment consists of all binary sequences of

length 3, that is
S = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH}.
 The space of this random variable is given by
RX = {0, 1, 2, 3}

Activities

1. Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous.

a. The number of arrivals at an emergency room between midnight and 6:00 a.m.
b. The weight of a box of cereal labeled “18 ounces.”
c. The duration of the next outgoing telephone call from a business office.
d. The number of kernels of popcorn in a 1-pound container.
e. The number of applicants for a job.

2.Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous.

a. The time between customers entering a checkout lane at a retail store.
b. The weight of refuse on a truck arriving at a landfill.
c. The number of passengers in a passenger vehicle on a highway at rush hour.
d. The number of clerical errors on a medical chart.
e. The number of accident-free days in one month at a factory.

3. Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous.

a. The number of boys in a randomly selected three-child family.
b. The temperature of a cup of coffee served at a restaurant.
c. The number of no-shows for every 100 reservations made with a commercial
airline.
d. The number of vehicles owned by a randomly selected household.
e. The average amount spent on electricity each July by a randomly selected
household in a certain state.

4. Classify each random variable as either discrete or continuous.

a. The number of patrons arriving at a restaurant between 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m.
b. The number of new cases of influenza in a particular county in a coming month.
c. The air pressure of a tire on an automobile.
d. The amount of rain recorded at an airport one day.
e. The number of students who actually register for classes at a university next
semester.

5. Identify the set of possible values for each random variable. (Make a reasonable
estimate based on experience, where necessary.)
a. The number of heads in two tosses of a coin.
b. The average weight of newborn babies born in a particular county one month.
c. The amount of liquid in a 12-ounce can of soft drink.
d. The number of games in the next World Series (best of up to seven games).
e. The number of coins that match when three coins are tossed at once.
6. Identify the set of possible values for each random variable. (Make a reasonable
estimate based on experience, where necessary.)
a. The number of hearts in a five-card hand drawn from a deck of 52 cards that
contains 13 hearts in all.
b. The number of pitches made by a starting pitcher in a major league baseball
game.
c. The number of breakdowns of city buses in a large city in one week.
d. The distance a rental car rented on a daily rate is driven each day.
e. The amount of rainfall at an airport next month.

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

(Probability Mass Function)

Definition 1.
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable X is a list of each
possible value of X together with the probability that X takes that value in one trial of
the experiment.
Theorem 1.
If X is a discrete random variable with space Rx and probability distribution
function f(x), then
(a) 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1, for all x in Rx, and
(b) ∑ f(x) = 1, where x є Rx
Example 1.
A fair coin is tossed twice. Let X be the number of heads that are observed.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X
b. Find the probability that at least one head is observed.
Solution.
a. The possible values that X can take are 0, 1 and 2. Each of these numbers
corresponds to an evet in the sample space s = {hh, ht, th, tt} of equally likely outcomes
for this experiment: X = 0 {tt}, X = 1 {ht, th} and X = 2 {hh}. The probability of these
events, hence the corresponding value of X can be represented as follows

x 0 1 2
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25
This table is the probability distribution function

b. “At least one head” is the event x ≥ 1, which is the union of the mutually
exclusive events X = 1 and X = 2. Thus P(X ≥ 1) = P (1) + P (2) = 0.50 + 0.25 = 0.75

Example 2.
A pair of die is rolled. Let X denote the sum of the number of dots on the top of
faces
(a) Construct the probability distribution of X.
(b) Find P(X ≥ 9).
(c) Find the probability that x takes an even value

Solution.
 The sample space of equally likely outcomes is:

1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6

2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
31 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6

a. The possible values for X are the numbers 2 through 12. X = 2 is the event
{1,1}, so P (2) = 1/36. X = 3 is are the events {1,2} and {2,1} so P (3) = 2/36.
Continuing this we will have
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
b. The event P(X ≥ 9) is the union of mutually exclusive events X = 9, X = 10, X =
11 and X = 12. Thus
P(X ≥ 9) = P (9) + P (10) + P (11) + P (12) = 4/36 + 3/36 + 2/36 + 1/36 = 10/36

c. Before we immediately jump into the conclusion that the probability of X takes
an even value must be 0.5, note that X takes six different even values but only
five different odd values.
P (X is even) = P (2) + P (4) + P (6) + P (8) + P (10) + P (12)
= 1/36 + 3/36 + 5/36 + 5/36 + 3/36 + 1/36
= 18/36 or 0.5
Example 3.
Suppose we observe during the first week of classes whether the next person
buying a calculator in a prominent bookstore in the university belt buys a calculator of
model A or model B
1 if the customer purchases Model A
X= { 0 if the customer purchases Model B

If 20% of all purchase during that week selected model A, the probability function for
x is
P (0) = P(X = 0) = P (next customer purchase Model B) = 0.8
P (1) = P(X = 1) = P (next customer purchase Model A) = 0.2
P (0) = P(X = x) = 0 for x ≠ 0 or 1

An equivalent description is given by

0.8 if x = 0
X= { 0.2
0
if x = 1
if x ≠ 0 or 1
Example 4.
An overseas shipment of 5 foreign automobiles contains 2 that have slight paint
blemishes. If an agency receives 3 automobiles at random, list the elements of the
sample space, then to each sample point assign a value x of the random variable X
representing the number of automobiles purchased by the agency with paint
blemishes. Construct the probability distribution.
Solution.
Let B1 = the first slight blemish car
B2 = the second slight blemish car
X = no. of slight blemish car

S = {NNN, NNB1, NB1N, B1NN, NNB2, NB2N, B2NN, B1B2N, B1NB2, NB1B2}
x 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
5! 5!
n(S) = 5C3 = (5−3)!3! = 10 0 defective 5C0 = (5−0)!0! = 1
5! 5!
1 defective 5C1 = (5−1)!1! = 6 2 defective 5C2 = (5−2)!2! = 3

x = no of slight blemish cars 0 1 2

P(X=x) 1/10 6/10 3/10

Example 5.
In an introductory statistics class of 50 students, there are 11 freshmen, 19
sophomores, 14 juniors and 6 seniors. One student is selected at random. What is the
sample space of this experiment? Construct a random variable X for this sample space
and then find its space. Further, find the probability distribution function of this random
variable X.

Solution.
The sample space of this random experiment is
S = {Fr, So, Jr, Sr}.
Define a function X: S → R as follows:
X (Fr) = 1, X (So) = 2
X (Jr) = 3, X (Sr) = 4

Then clearly X is a random variable in S. The space of X is given by

RX = {1, 2, 3, 4}

The probability density function of X is given by

f (1) = P (X = 1) =11/50
f (2) = P (X = 2) =19/50
f (3) = P (X = 3) =14/50
f (4) = P (X = 4) =6/50.

x 1 2 3 4
P(X=x) 11/50 19/50 14/50 6/50

Example 6.
A pair of dice consisting of a six-sided die and a four-sided die is rolled and the
sum is determined. Let the random variable X denote this sum. Find the sample space,
the space of the random variable and probability distribution function of X.

Solution.
 The sample space of this random experiment is given by

{(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

S= (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)}

The space of the random variable X is given by

RX = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

Therefore, the probability density function of X is given by

f (2) = P (X = 2) =1/24 f (3) = P (X = 3) =2/24 f (4) = P (X = 4) =3/24

f (5) = P (X = 5) =4/24 f (6) = P (X = 6) =4/24 f (7) = P (X = 7) =4/24
f (8) = P (X = 8) =3/24 f (9) = P (X = 9) =2/24 f (10) = P (X = 10)=1/24

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(X=x) 1/24 2/24 3/24 4/24 4/24 4/24 3/24 2/24 1/24

Example 7.
A fair coin is tossed 3 times. Let the random variable X denote the number of
heads in 3 tosses of the coin. Find the sample space? and find the probability
distribution function of this random variable X.

The sample space S of this experiment consists of all binary sequences of

length 3, that is
S = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH}.

The space of this random variable is given by

RX = {0, 1, 2, 3}

Therefore, the probability density function of X is given by

f (0) = P (X = 0) =1/8
f (1) = P (X = 1) =3/8
f (2) = P (X = 2) =3/8
f (3) = P (X = 3) =1/8.

x 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

Example 8.
Consider a random variable X, assumes the values x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6 with
equal probabilities. We will represent this rv tabular and graphical, and then we
determine the probability mass function and a distribution function.

Solution.
We have the tabular representation of X as in the following table:
 k the value of the rv x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

The graphical representation of X is as in the following Figure.

The probability mass function of this random variable is:

P(X = K) = 1/6 for any k = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

The distribution function of this random variable is:

Then the graph of the distribution function Fx has the following form:
 Activities

1. If each pair of die is “loaded” so that one comes up half as often as it should,
six comes up half again as often as it should and the probabilities of the other
faces are unaltered, then the probability distribution for the sum of X of the
number of dots on the top faces when two are rolled is
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x) 1/144 4/144 8/144 12/144 16/144 22/144 24/144 20/144 16/144 12/144 9/144
2.
Compute the following:
a. P(5 ≤ X ≤ 9) b. P(X ≥ 7)

3. Ace works in an automotive tire factory. The number X of sound but blemished
tires that he produces on a random day has the probability distribution
x 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.48 0.36 0.12 0.04

a. Find the probability that Ace will produce more than three blemishes
tires tomorrow.
b. Find the probability that Ace will produce at most two blemished tires.
 4. In a hamster breeder’s experience, the number X of live pups in a litter of a
female not over twelve months in age who has not borne a litter in the past six
weeks has the probability distribution:
x 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
P(x) 0.04 0.10 0.26 0.031 0.22 0.05 0.02

a. Find the probability that the next litter will produce five to seven live pups.
b. Find the probability that the next litter will produce at least six live pups.
5. Let X denote the number of times a fair coin lands heads in three tosses.
Construct the probability distribution of X.

6. Five thousand lottery tickets are sold for 1 each. One ticket will win 1,000, two
tickets will win 500 each, and ten tickets will win 100 each. Let X denote the net
gain from the purchase of a randomly selected ticket.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.

7. A roulette wheel has 38 slots. Thirty-six slots are numbered from 1 to 36; the
remaining two slots are numbered 0 and 00. Suppose the “number” 00 is
considered not to be even, but the number 0 is still even. In a 10 bet on even,
the bettor pays 1 to play. If the ball lands in an even numbered slot, he receives
back the money he bet plus an additional of 5. If the ball does not land on an
even numbered slot, he loses his 10 Peso. Let X denote the net gain to the
bettor on one play of the game.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.

EXPECTED VALUE (MEAN)

Definition 1.
Let X be a random variable with space RX and probability density function f(x).
The mean μX of the random variable X is defined as

μ = E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥 ) if X is discrete

Example 1.
A couple decides to have 3 children. If none of the 3 is a girl, they will try again;
and if they still don’t get a girl, they will try once more. If the random variable X denotes
the number of children the couple will have following this scheme, then what is the
expected value of X?

Solution.
Since the couple can have 3 or 4 or 5 children, the space of the random variable
X is RX = {3, 4, 5}.

The probability density function of X is given by:

f (3) = P(X = 3) f (4) = P(X = 4)
=P (at least one girl) = P (3 boys and 1 girl in last
try)
 = 1 – P (no girls) = 1(1/2)3(1/2)
= 1 – P (3 boys in three tries) = 1/16
= 1 – (P (1 boy in each try)3
= 1 – (1/2)3
= 7/8

f (5) = P (X = 5)
= P (4 boys and 1 girl in last try) + P (5 boys in last tries)
= P (1 boy in each try)4P (1 girl in last try) + P (1 boy in each try)5
= (1/2)4 (1/2) + (1/2)5
= 1/16
Hence the expected value of the random variable is;
E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
= ∑5𝑥=3 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
= 3f (3) + 4f(4) + 5f(5)
= 3(14/16) + 4(1/16) + 5(1/16)
= 51/16 or 3 3/16
Remark 1.
We interpret this physically as meaning that if many couples have children
according to this scheme, it is likely that the average family size would be near 3 3/16
children.

Example 2.
A lot of 8 TV sets includes 3 that are defective. If 4 of the sets are chosen at
random for shipment to a hotel, how many defective sets can they expect?

Solution.
Let X be the random variable representing the number of defective TV sets in
a shipment of 4. Then the space of the random variable X is RX = {0, 1, 2, 3}.

Then the probability distribution function of X is given by

f(x) = P (X = x)
= P (x defective TV sets in a shipment of four)
= (3Cx) (5C4-x) / 8C4 where x= 0, 1, 2 and 3

f (0) = (3C0) (5C4) / 8C4 f (2) = (3C2) (5C2) / 8C4

= 5/70 = 30/70

f (1) = (3C1) (5C3) / 8C4 f (3) = (3C3) (5C1) / 8C4

= 30/70 =5/70

Therefore, the expected value of X is given by:

E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
 = ∑30 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
=f (1) + 2f(2) + 3f(3)
= 30/70 + 2(30/70) + 3(5/70)
= 105/70 or 1.5

Remark 2.

Since they cannot possibly get 1.5 defective TV sets, it should be noted that
the term “expect” is not used in its colloquial sense. Indeed, it should be interpreted
as an average pertaining to repeated shipments made under given conditions.

Example 3.
Find the expected value of X, where X is number of tails that occur per toss
when two coins are tossed 12 times and suppose that the experiment yields no tails,
1 tail and 2 tails, a total of 2, 4 and 6 respectively.

Solution.
The value of X can be 0, 1 and 2, so
μ = E(X) = 0(2/12) + 1(4/12) + 2(6/12)
= 4/3

Example 4.
Find the expected value of X where X represents the outcome when a die is
tossed.

Solution.
The sample points 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, each occurs with the probability of1/6, hence
μ = E(X) = 1(1/6) + 2(1/6) + 3(1/6) + 4(1/6) + 5(1/6) + 6(1/6)
= 7/2

Example 5.
Find the expected number of girls on a committee of 4 selected randomly from
6 girls and 5 boys.

Solution.

f(x) =[6Cx] [5C4-x] / 11C4 for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4

f (0) =[6C0] [5C4] / 11C4 f (2) =[6C2] [5C2] / 11C4 f (4) =[6C4] [5C0] / 11C4
= 1/66 = 5/11 = 4/22

f (1) =[6C1] [5C3] / 11C4 f (3) =[6C3] [5C1] / 11C4

= 2/11 = 10/33

μ = E(X) =0(1/66) + 1(2/11) + 2(5/11) + 3(10/33) + 4(1/22)

= 24/11
 Hence, if a committee of 4 is selected at random over and over again from 6
girls and 5 boys, it would contain on the average of 2.2 girls.

Example 6.
In a gambling game a player is paid 5 pesos if he gets all trials or all heads
when 3 coins are tossed and he will pay 3 pesos if either 1 or 2 heads show. What is
his expected gain?

Solution.
For this activity, the sample space consists of

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, TTH, THT, TTT}

Since each of these sample points is equally likely to occur, then the probability
for each outcome is 1/8. Suppose X is the amount the player can win, then the possible
values of X are 5 if event E1 = {HHH, TTT} occurs and -3 if event E2 = {HHT, HTH,
THH, HTT, TTH, THT} occurs. Considering that P(E1) = ¼ and P(E2) = ¾ it follows that

μ = E(X) = 5(1/4) + (-3) (3/4)

= -1
Example 7.
Find the mean of the discrete random variable X whose probability distribution
is

x -2 1 2 3.5
P(x) 0.21 0.34 0.24 0.21
Solution.
The formula in the definition gives
μ = E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
= -2(0.21) + 1 (0.34) + 2(0.24) + 3.5 (0.21)
= 1.135

Example 8.
A service organization in a large town organizes a raffle each month. One
thousand raffle ticket are sold for 1 each. Each has an equal chance ow winning. First
prize is 300, second prize is 200 and third prize is 100. Let X denote the net gain from
the purchase of one ticket. Find the expected value of X and interpret its meaning.

Solution.
If a ticket is selected as the first prize winner, the net gain to the ticket purchaser
is 300 - 1. So, P (299) = 0.001. applying the same “income minus outgo” principle to
the second and third prize winners and to the 997 losing ticket yields the probability
distribution
 x 299 199 99 -1
P(x) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.997

Using the formula in the definition of expected value

μ = E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
= 299(0.001) + 199(0.001) + 99(0.001) + (-1) (0.997)
= -0.4

The negative value means that one loses money on the average. In particular,
if someone were to buy tickets repeatedly, then he would win now and then, on the
average he would lose 40 cents per ticket purchased.

Example 9.
A life insurance company will sell a 200,000 one-year term life insurance policy
to an individual in a particular risk group for a premium of 195. Find the expected value
to the company of a single policy if a person in this risk group has a 99.97% chance
of surviving one year.

Solution.
Let X denote the net gain to the company from the sale of one such policy.
There are two possibilities: the insured person lives the whole year or the insured
person dies before the year is up. Applying the “income minus outgo” principle, in the
former case the value of X is 195 − 0; in the latter case it is 195 − 200,000 = −199,805.
Since the probability in the first case is 0.9997 and in the second case is 1 −
0.9997=0.0003, the probability distribution for X is:

x 195 -199, 805

P(x) 0.997 0.0003
Therefore:
μ = E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
= 195(0.9997) + (-199,805) (0.0003)
= 135

Occasionally (in fact 3 times in 10,000) the company loses a large amount of
money on a policy but typically it gains 195 which by our computation E(X) works out
to a net gain of 135 per policy sold, on average.

Activities

1. Number of Trips of Five Nights or More. The probability distribution shown

represents the number of trips of five nights or more that American adults take per
year. (That is, 6% do not take any trips lasting five nights or more, 70% take one trip
lasting five nights or more per year, etc.) Find the mean.

Number of Trips X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.06 0.70 0.20 0.03 0.01
2. Selecting Numbered Balls. A box contains 5 balls. Two are numbered 3, one is
numbered 4, and two are numbered 5. The balls are mixed and one is selected at
random. After a ball is selected, its number is recorded. Then it is replaced. If the
experiment is repeated many times, find the mean.

3. On Hold for Talk Radio. A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host
is unable to talk (i.e., during a commercial) or is talking to a person, the other callers
are placed on hold. When all lines are in use, others who are trying to call in get a busy
signal. The probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 people will get through is shown in the
distribution. Find mean

X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.18 0.34 0.23 0.21 0.04

4. Winning Tickets. One thousand tickets are sold at 1 each for a color television
valued at 350. What is the expected value of the gain if you purchase one ticket?

Win Lose
Gain 349 -1
P(X) 1/1000 999/1000

5. Winning Tickets. One thousand tickets are sold at 1 each for four prizes of 100,
50, 25, and 10. After each prize drawing, the winning ticket is then returned to the pool
of tickets. What is the expected value if you purchase two tickets?

Gain X 98 48 23 8 -2
P(X) 2/100 2/100 2/100 2/100 992/1000

VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION

Definition 1.
The spread of the distribution of a random variable X is its variance. The
variance “σ2” of a discrete random variable X is the number

σ2 = ∑ (x- μ)2P(x)
which by algebra
 σ2 = [∑x2P(x)] - μ2
or
σ2 = E (X2) - μ2
Definition 2.
The positive square root of the variance is called the standard deviation (SD)
(denoted by (σ), thus we have:

σ = +√var(x)
PROPERTIES OF EXPECTED VALUE AND VARIANCE

1. E (aX + B) = Ae(X) + b
2. Var (X) = E(X2) - μ2
3. Var (a) = 0 for any constant a
4. Var (aX + b) = a2 Var(X)
Example 1.
A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution

x -1 0 1 4
P(x) 0.2 0.5 a 0.1

a. Find the mean μ of X.

Solution.
Since all probabilities must add up to 1, a = 1 − (0.2+0.5+0.1) = 0.2

Using the formula in the definition of μ,

μ = Σ x* P(x) = −1(0.2) + 0(0.5) + 1(0.2) + 4(0.1) = 0.4

b. Find the σ2 of X.

Using the formula in the definition of variance and the value of μ that was just
computed
σ2 = ∑ (x- μ)2P(x)
σ2 = (-1 – 0.4)2 (0.2) + (0 – 0.4)2 (0.5) + (1 – 0.4)2 (0.2) + (4 – 0.4)2 (0.1)
σ2 = 1.84

Example 2.
Let f be a probability mass function for a discrete random variable X, it takes
integer numbers, and defined by the following relation:
 where c is a real constant.
a. Determine the constant c.
b. Determine the corresponding distribution function.
c. Calculate the mean, the variance and standard deviation for X.
d. Calculate E (5X + 9) and Var (3X+14)

Solution.
a. According to the definition of a discrete random variable with density function f,
we can write
1 = ∑f(k) = ∑P(X = k)
= P(X = 10) + P(X = 20) + P(X = 30) + P (X = k є Z; k ≠ 10, 20, 30)
= 2c + c + c – 0.2 + 0
c = 0.3

b. The corresponding distribution

c. The mean of this random variable

μ = E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
=10 P (X = 10) + 20 P (X = 20) + 30 P (X = 30)
= 10 (0.6) + 20 (0.3) + 30 (0.1)
= 15

Where the variance can be obtained by E(X2) (the moment of order 2 of X) is

E(X2) = ∑x2 * P(X = x)
= 102 P (X = 10) + 202 P (X = 20) + 302 P (X = 30)
= 100 (0.6) + 400 (0.3) + 900 (0.1)
= 270

Hence the variance is

σ2 = Var (X) = E (X2) - μ2
= 270 – 225
= 45

Hence the standard deviation is:

σ = +√var(x)
 σ = √45
σ = 6.71
Now, by using the properties of the expectation, one has:
E (5X + 9) = 5 E (X) + 9
= (5 * 15) + 9
= 84
d. Also,
Var (3X + 14) = Var2 (X) + Var (14)
= (9 * 45) + 0
= 405

Example 3.
Let X be a discrete random variable representing the number of hours'
university student spending on practicing sports per week. The probability mass
function for X is given by the form:
k3
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑘) = , 𝑘 = 1, 2, 3, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑐 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡
9c
a. Determine the value of c.
b. Determine the distribution function of the random variable X.
c. Calculate the mean and the variance.

Solution.
a. The value of c is the quantity that make ∑P (X = k) = 1, hence
1 = ∑P (X = k) P (X =1) + P (X = 2) + P (X =3)
13 23 33 36 4
1= + + = =
9c 9c 9c 9𝑐 𝑐
Thus, c = 4

b. The corresponding distribution function is:

b. The mean for this discrete random variable is:

μ = E(X) = ∑ 𝑥 ∗ 𝑓(𝑥)
μ = 1 P(X = 1) + 2P(X = 2) + 3P(X = 3)
μ = 1(1/36) + 2(8/360 + 3(27/36)
μ = 98/36
μ = 2.72
and for the variance, find E(X2)
E(X2) = ∑k2 P (X = k)
= 12 P (X = 1) + 22 P (X = 2) + 32 P (X = 3)
= 1/36 + 4(8/36) + 9(27/36)
= 276/36
= 7.667
Hence the variance is:
σ2 = Var (X) = E(X 2 ) − μ2
= 46/6 – (49/8)2
= 0.2561

Example 4.
Suppose an insurance company pays the amount in Saudi Riyal’s
denomination, SR 2000 for lost luggage on an airplane trip. From past experience, it
is known that the company pays this amount in 1 out of 400 insurance policies it sells.
What premium should the insurance company charge to every policy to break even?

Solution.
We define the rv X as follows:
X = 0 if no loss occurs, which happens with probability 1 – (1/400) = 0.9975
X = -200 with probability 1/400 = 0.0025

k 0 -2000
P(X = k) 0.9975 0.0025
The expected loss to the company is:
E(X) = ∑k P (X = k) = 0 (0.995) + (-2000) (0.0025) = -5SR

Thus, the company must charge 5 SR to break even. Note that the insurance
can make profit only if it sells any policy more than 5 SR.
 Activities

1. The number X of nails in a randomly selected 1-pound box has the probability
distribution shown.
x 100 101 102
P(x) 0.01 0.96 0.03
a. Find the average number of nails per pound
b. Find the variance

2. Three fair dice are rolled at once. Let X denote the number of dice land with the
same number of dots on top as at least one other die. The probability distribution for
X is

x 0 u 3
P(x) p 15/36 1/36
a. Find the value of u. c. Find the missing probability p
b. Find the mean d. Find the variances

3. The time, to the nearest whole minute, that a city bus takes to go from one end
of its route to the other has the probability distribution shown. As sometimes happens
with probabilities computed as empirical relative frequencies, probabilities in the table
add up only to a value other than 1.00 because of round-off-error

x 42 43 44 45 46 47
P(x) 0.10 0.22 0.34 0.25 0.05 0.02
a. Find the average time the bus takes to drive the length of its route.
b. Find the variance of the length of time the bus takes to drive the
length of its route.

4. A roulette wheel has 38 slots. Thirty-six slots are numbered from 1 to 36; half
of them are red and half are black. The remaining two slots are numbered 0 and 00
and are green. In a 1 bet on red, the bettor pays 1 to play. If the ball lands in a red slot,
he receives back the dollar he bet plus an additional dollar. If the ball does not land on
red, he loses his dollar. Let X denote the net gain to the bettor on one play of the game.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.
b. Compute the expected value E(X) of X, and interpret its meaning in the
context of the problem.
c. Compute the standard deviation of X.

5. Five thousand lottery tickets are sold for 1 each. One ticket will win 1,000, two
tickets will win 500 each, and ten tickets will win 100 each. Let X denote the net gain
from the purchase of a randomly selected ticket.
a. Construct the probability distribution of X.
b. Compute the expected value E(X) of X. Interpret its meaning.
c. Compute the standard deviation σ of X.

6. A random variable X has the distribution

 x 0 1 2 4
P(x) 1/3 1/3 1/6 1/6
Find the expected value and variance of X.

THEOREMS ON EXPECTATIONS
(Optional)

Theorem 1. If c is any constant, then:

E(cX) = cE(X)
Theorem 2. If X and Y are any random variables, then

E(X+Y) = E(X) + E(Y)

Theorem 3. If X and Y are independent random variables, then

E(XY) = E(X)E(Y)
Theorem 4. σ2 = [(X-µ)2] = E(X2) - µ2 = E(X2) – [E(X)]2 where µ = E(X)

Theorem 5. If c is any constant, then

Var (cX) = c2Var(X)

Theorem 6. The quantity E(X-a)2 is a minimum when; a = µ = E(X)
Theorem 7. If X and Y are independent random variables,

Var (X + Y) = Var (X) + Var (Y) σ2x+y = σ2x + σ2y

Var (X − Y) = Var (X) + Var (Y) σ2x−y = σ2x +σ2y
Note.
Variances are added for both the sum and difference of two independent
random variables because the variation in each variable contributes to the variation in
each case. The variability of the differences increases as much as the variability of
sums.

Don’t Forget!
These theorems apply to the variance and not to the standard deviation! Make
sure you convert your standard deviation into variance before you apply these
theorems.

Example 1.
Let X and Y be the random independent events of rolling a fair die. Compute
the expected value of X + Y, and the variance of X + Y. The following is the probability
function for X and Y, individually:
 X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X=x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
From this, we get the following:
μx = μ𝑦 = 3.5 and σ2x = σ2y = 2.916666

There are two ways we could compute E (X + Y) and Var (X + Y). First, we
could compute the probability distribution of X + Y, and find the expected value and
variance from there. Notice that the possible values
for X + Y are 2, 3, …, 11, 12.

X+Y 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
f(x+y) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

We can find the expected value as follows:

E(X + Y) = 2(1/36) + 3(2/36) + … + 12(1/36) = 252/36 or 7

It then follows that the variance is:

Var (X + Y) = [(2-7)2(1/36) +…+ (12-7)2(1/36)] = 210/36 = 5.83

However, using Theorems 2 and 3-7 makes this an easy task. By using Theorem 2,
E (X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y) = 3.5 + 3.5 = 7

Since X = Y, we could have also found the expected value using Theorems 2:
E (X + Y) = E (X + X) = E (2X) = 2[E(X)] = 2(3.5) = 7

However, we could not have used Theorem 5-7 to find the variance because
we are basically using the same distribution, X, twice, and X is not independent from
itself. Notice that we get the wrong variance when we apply the theorem:
Var (X + X) = Var (2X) = (22) Var (X) = 4Var(X) = 11.666

Example 2. Let X, Y be random variables with the following joint pmf

show that X and Y are uncorrelated but are not independent.

Solution.
Using the fundamental theorem of expected values, we can compute E(XY )
E(XY ) = (1/3)(−1)(1) + (1/3)(0)(0) + (1/3)(1)(1) = 0
From the joint pmf of X and Y we can marginalize to obtain the pmf of X and of Y

Thus
E(X) = (1/3) (−1) + (1/3) (0) + (1/3) (1) = 0
E(Y ) = (1/3)(0) + (2/3)(1) = 2/3

Cov (X, Y) = E(XY ) − E(X)E(Y ) = 0 − (0)(2/3) = 0 Thus X and Y are

uncorrelated. To show that X and Y are not independent note that
P X, Y (0, 0) = 1/3 ≠ pX(0)pY (0) = (1/3)(1/3)
 Activity
A pair of die consisting of a six-sided die and a four-sided die, say X and Y
respectively, is rolled separately.

a. Construct a PDF
b. Find the expected value of each random variable.
c. Find P(X+Y)
d. Find the Var (X+Y)