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Unit 5 - Lesson 7

This document covers the addition rule for calculating probabilities of independent and dependent events, including examples and applications such as the Monty Hall problem and the Birthday Paradox. It also includes practice problems involving probabilities related to drivers wearing seatbelts, students passing tests, and selecting apples. The document emphasizes the use of tree diagrams and Bayes' theorem to analyze various probability scenarios.

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Yujin Bae
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7 views4 pages

Unit 5 - Lesson 7

This document covers the addition rule for calculating probabilities of independent and dependent events, including examples and applications such as the Monty Hall problem and the Birthday Paradox. It also includes practice problems involving probabilities related to drivers wearing seatbelts, students passing tests, and selecting apples. The document emphasizes the use of tree diagrams and Bayes' theorem to analyze various probability scenarios.

Uploaded by

Yujin Bae
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Unit 5 – Lesson 7 – Addition rule

Addition rule for independent and dependent events:

The same example as last lesson, but different questions.

a. Find the probability for obtaining two 𝑀’s in the end:

as “branches” are mutually exclusive (as they are always complementary events): 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =

à hence we add different branches

b. Find the probability for picking two 𝑂’s:

c. Find the probability for picking an 𝑀:


BAYES’ THEOREM:

𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴) =

with 𝑃(𝐴) =

Applications:
1. The probability that a person has a specific virus is 5 in a thousand. A test will correctly diagnose this
disease 95% of the time and incorrectly diagnoses the disease 20% of occasions.
a. Draw a tree diagram representing the given information.

b. Find the probability for a person having that virus and the test showing a positive result.

c. Find the probability of the test giving a correct diagnosis knowing that the person does not have the virus?

d. Find the probability of this test giving a correct diagnosis.

e. Given that the test diagnoses the patient as having the virus, what is the probability that the patient
actually has it? Interpret your result.

f. Given that the test diagnoses the patient as having the virus, what is the probability that the patient
does not have it? Interpret your result.

g. Given that the test diagnoses the patient as not having the virus, what is the probability that the patient
does have it? Interpret your result.
2. The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the
American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind
the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another
door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage
to switch your choice?

tree diagram: assume candidate picks door No.1

a. The moderator opened door 2, what is the probability of the car being behind door No.1?

b. Hence, should a candidate (always) switch their choice?

3. The Birthday Paradox:


What is the probability, that at least two students have their birthdays on the same day?

a. Assume your class size: 𝑛 =

b. What do you think should be the class size to have a probability of more than 0.5 (hence more likely to
have birthday pairs than to not have at least one birthday pair)?
More Practice:

1. 90% of all drivers wear a seatbelt. On 60% of occasions if a driver was not wearing a seatbelt they would
be fined for speeding. If they were wearing a seatbelt, they would be fined for speeding 20% of the time.
Find the probability that a driver who was fined for speeding was wearing a seat belt.

2. Tony has a 90% chance of passing his maths test, whilst Tanya has an 85% chance of passing the same
test. If they both sit for the same test, find the probability that

a. only one of them passes

b. at least one passes

c. Tanya passes given that at least one passed

!
3. The probability that a man leaves his umbrella in any shop he visits is . After visiting 2 shops in
"
succession, he finds he has left his umbrella in one of them.
What’s the probability that he left his umbrella in the second shop?

4. A box contains 22 red apples and 3 green apples. Three apples are selected at random, one after the
other, without replacement.
a. The first two apples are green. What is the probability that the third apple is red?

b. What is the probability that exactly one of the three apples is red?

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