CHAPTER III

AGE STRUCTURE AND ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

3.1. Introduction

This chapter is an attempt to study and understand the concept of Demographic Transition

and issues related to it and apply the framework to Nagaland. Demographic Dividend, an

invariable component in the study on demographic transition and population studies, will

feature prominently. This will be juxtaposed with the issue of economic development in the

state as the state seeks to reap the benefits of demographic dividend. Institutional apathy

coupled with historical antecedents and political instability which inhibits development in

the state will be analysed in the context of demographic transition in the state.

3.2. Demographic Transition in Nagaland

Demographic transition in Nagaland has given a new opportunity for development of the

state economy. As in many countries declining young dependent population, as this age

group moves into working age, Nagaland finds itself with higher share of potential workers

proportion more than dependents population. If this working-age population can be

employed productively, Nagaland’s economic development stands to grow. Theoretical and

empirical literature on the effect of demographics transition on supply of labour, saving and

economic development underpins this effort to understand and forecast economic

development in Nagaland. Policy choices will surely potentiate Nagaland’s realization of

economic development benefits along with demographic transitionj; failure to use the

advantage of the window of demographic dividend will lead to economic stagnation.

78
3.3. Age Structure of Nagaland (1981-2011)

In 1981, the proportion of the age 0-14 years was 36.84% of the total population which has

increased to 37.29% in 1991 and it has fallen back to 36.6% and 34.3% in 2001 and 2011

respectively. Aged 60 and above was only 5.93% in 1981 and has fallen to 5.27% and

4.73% in 1991 and 2002 respectively and again rose to 5,3% in 20011.This showed the that

the dependency ratio in the young dependent age population was quite high though the

dependent population of elderly dependent population was insignificant. An implication of

the population structure showed that a significant amount of investment in human capital,

(education and health) is required for taping the demographic dividend in the subsequent

years. The decreasing population of young dependent may contribute more for economic

development of the State. The working age population (age 15-59) increased from 57.0%

in 1981 to 57.43%, 58.50% and 60.4 % in 1991, 2001 and 2011 respectively. Comparing

with 57.0% in 1981, the subsequent decades of increasing working population showed that

the State’s population is more mature and transitioning to a population structure marked by

a bulge in the working age group, even though the level of dependence population with

39.6 is still quite high. The proportion of working age population in the state has been

steadily increasing over the decades. This can be seen from table 3.1.

Table: 3.1. Age Structure of Nagaland over the Years (1981-2011)

Age 1981 1991 2001 2011
0-14 285536 (36.84) 451044 (37.29) 728409 (36.60) 679032 (34.3)
15-59 440972 (57.0) 694725 (57.43) 1164082 (58.50) 1195273 (60.4)
60 and above 46022 (5.93) 63777 (5.27) 94315 (4.73) 104197 (5.3)
Total
774930 1209546 1990036 1978502
Population
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1981-2011

79
 70
60.4
57 57.43 58.5
60

50

40 36.84 37.29 36.6

34.3

30

20

10 5.93 5.27 4.73 5.3

0
1981 1991 2001 2011
0-14 15-59 60 and above

Fig. 3.1: Age Structure (1981-2011)

Table 3.2: Share of Working Population and Dependents (1981-2011)

Age 1981 1991 2001 2011
0-14 + 60 and above 42.77 42.56 41.33 39.6
15-59 57 57.43 58.50 60.4
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1981-2011

70
58.5 60.4
60 57 57.43

50
42.77 42.56 41.33 39.6
40
Dependent Population
30
Working Age Population
20

10

0
1981 1991 2001 2011

Fig. 3.2: Share of Working Age and Dependent Population

80
3.4. Population Age Structure of Nagaland: 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses

The present section presents the overview of the population structure of the state as seen

from three different censuses in 1991, 2001, and 2011. For the analysis, a population

pyramid is used to present the data. The population pyramid contains continuous stacked-

histogram bars, making it a horizontal bar shape. The population percentage size is shown

on the x-axis (horizontal axis) while the age-groups are represented on the y-axis (vertical

axis).

Different questions come to the fore as population data is presented. These include:

(a) What stage of demographic transition is the state in? Is it a stage marked by a

higher proportion of children, working age population or old age population?

(b) What is the workforce population ratio and conversely the labour dependency ratio?

(c) What stage of population growth is the state in – explosive, steady, or declining?

(d) Does the state show any diversion from the usual trend of population growth at any

stage?

(e) What next in its population composition and if there is any societal socio-economic

implications?

Table 3.3 provides a detailed breakup of the age composition of the population of the state.

The same data is presented in a population pyramid diagram in Graph 1. Both the table and

the graph shows that in the 1991 census, the state was marked by a very wide base showing

a high population ratio of children, adolescent and young adult population. Children in the

0-14 year age group consisted of 451044 from a total population of 1209546 or formed a

percentage of 37.29%. Aged 60 and above was only 63777 or 5.27% of the total

population. This showed that dependency ratio in the young age population was quite high

81
though dependent population among the elderly was insignificant. An implication of the

population structure showed that a significant amount of investment in human capital in the

form of investment in education and health was required for tapping demographic dividend

in the subsequent years. That children made up a significant proportion of the population

showed that the state was in a high population growth phase where the birth rate was much

higher than the death rate. Also since more developed societies usually have either a

bulging area in the middle showing the second phase of demographic transition or even a

very narrow base widening up along the age cohort, the perfect-pyramid shape of the age

structure showed that the state is still in the first stage of demographic transition marked by

a low level of economic development. The male-female population ratio of 53:47 in favour

of male showed a significant gender imbalance.

Table 3.3: Population Age Structure of Nagaland, 1991 Census

Age Male Female %male %Female Total
0-4 69658 70079 5.76% -5.79% 139737
5-9 79105 76320 6.54% -6.31% 155425
10-14 80260 75622 6.64% -6.25% 155882
15-19 73879 67672 6.11% -5.59% 141551
20-24 63642 54199 5.26% -4.48% 117841
25-29 52693 47893 4.36% -3.96% 100586
30-34 39654 35600 3.28% -2.94% 75254
35-39 38159 33206 3.15% -2.75% 71365
40-44 33212 25782 2.75% -2.13% 58994
45-49 28867 21951 2.39% -1.81% 50818
50-54 22012 16065 1.82% -1.33% 38077
55-59 14029 10099 1.16% -0.83% 24128
60-64 13248 9527 1.10% -0.79% 22775
65-69 7815 5747 0.65% -0.48% 13562
70-74 6202 4442 0.51% -0.37% 10644
75-79 3541 2502 0.29% -0.21% 6043
80-84 3431 2305 0.28% -0.19% 5736
85+ 3179 1838 0.26% -0.15% 5017
Age not specified 8696 7415 0.72% -0.61% 16111
641282 568264 53.02% -46.98% 1209546
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1991

82
 85+
80-84
75-79
70-74 %Female
65-69
60-64 %male
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%

Fig. 3.3: Population Distribution by age and gender for Nagaland, 1991

Table 3.3 and 3.4 and figure 3,3 and 3.4 show that while there were changes in the

absolute number of the population figure in 2001 as compared to the 1991 census, the

percentage change was miniscule. Thus, while the number of childen in the age group of 0-

14 years increased to 728409 in 2001 from 451044 in 1991 which was an increase of

61.49%, the percentage of 0-14 years as a percentage of the total population in the two

censuses was 37.29% and 36.60% in 1991 and 2001 respectively, showing no big

divergence. The figure of 445190 representing the number of children born between 1991

and 2001 also showed that the number of children being born was still very high. Increase

in senior and old age population implying improving life expectancy meant that this decade

was a decade of high population growth. The number of people 60 years and above as a

percentage of total population however fell between 1991 and 2001 from 5.27% to 4.54%.

This fall was a result of increase in other components of population namely children and

83
working age population. The working age population increased slightly to 58.62% in 2001

from 56.10% in 1991. This was a marginal increase underlying high dependency level of

41.14%. The male-female population ratio improves from 57:43 to 56.60:47.40.

Table 3.4: Population Age Structure of Nagaland, 2001 Census

Age Male Female Male% Female% Total
0-4 94857 92803 4.77% -4.66% 187660
5-9 133580 123950 6.71% -6.23% 257530
10-14 147721 135498 7.42% -6.81% 283219
15-19 139923 126181 7.03% -6.34% 266104
20-24 110221 99709 5.54% -5.01% 209930
25-29 83129 80313 4.18% -4.04% 163442
30-34 64536 58371 3.24% -2.93% 122907
35-39 63725 58499 3.20% -2.94% 122224
40-44 50914 44070 2.56% -2.21% 94984
45-49 47494 39769 2.39% -2.00% 87263
50-54 35162 24810 1.77% -1.25% 59972
55-59 22543 17191 1.13% -0.86% 39734
60-64 18067 13680 0.91% -0.69% 31747
65-69 11610 9347 0.58% -0.47% 20957
70-74 8348 6533 0.42% -0.33% 14881
75-79 5001 4126 0.25% -0.21% 9127
80-84 3604 2723 0.18% -0.14% 6327
85+ 4106 3178 0.21% -0.16% 7284
Age not
Specified 2600 2144 0.13% -0.11% 4744
1047141 942895 52.62% -47.38% 1990036
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 2001

84
 Age not Specified
Female%
80-84

70-74 Male%
60-64

50-54

40-44

30-34

20-24

10-14

0-4

8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%

Fig. 3.4 Population Distribution By Age And Gender For Nagaland, 2001

Between 2001 census and 2011 census, a fall in the proportion of children in the age group

of 0-14 years is noticed. Children as a proportion of the total population had fallen

compared to the previous from 36.30% (2001) to 34.34% (2011) a fall of -2%. The

working age population increased from 58.62% (2001) to 60.46% (2011). Comparing with

1991 (56.10%), the decade showed the state’s population maturing and transitioning to a

population structure marked by a bulge in the working age group though the level of

dependence was still significant at 39.54% with a slight increase in the senior population

from 4.54% (2001) to 5.20% (2011). Children born in this decade was 430361 which made

up 21.77% of the total population. Even with a declining population between 2001 and

2011, the number of children being born was still significant. Another trend that can be

noticed is the improvement in the female-male ratio with the male-female ratio improving

to 51.78:48.22 in 2011 from 56.60:47.40 in 2001.

85
Table 3.5: Population Age Structure of Nagaland, 2011 Census
Age Male Female Male% Female% Total
0-4 101291 95971 5.12% -4.85% 197262
5-9 120647 112452 6.10% -5.69% 233099
10-14 129237 119434 6.54% -6.04% 248671
15-19 117994 111628 5.97% -5.65% 229622
20-24 103769 100594 5.25% -5.09% 204363
25-29 89598 87303 4.53% -4.42% 176901
30-34 76505 73419 3.87% -3.71% 149924
35-39 64695 63503 3.27% -3.21% 128198
40-44 57653 51608 2.92% -2.61% 109261
45-49 47757 39990 2.42% -2.02% 87747
50-54 36134 29725 1.83% -1.50% 65859
55-59 23741 19657 1.20% -0.99% 43398
60-64 19683 16836 1.00% -0.85% 36519
65-69 12801 11442 0.65% -0.58% 24243
70-74 9260 8333 0.47% -0.42% 17593
75-79 5635 4930 0.29% -0.25% 10565
80-84 3728 3294 0.19% -0.17% 7022
85+ 3672 3112 0.19% -0.16% 6784

1023800 953231 51.78% -48.22% 1977031

Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 2011

85+
80-84
75-79 Female%
70-74
65-69 Male%
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%

Fig. 3.5: Population Distribution By Age And Gender For Nagaland, 2011

86
Looking at the decadal census of population of 1991, 2001, and 2011, one can draw certain

conclusions to questions raised at the beginning. While the state’s population growth was

negative between 2001 and 2011 but the number of children been added is still significant.

Barring some unforeseen exigencies, one can expect the population to grow further. The

base of the population pyramid is still very wide with a very narrow tip at the top. A

transition towards a more cylindrical shape pyramid or a narrow base is still a long way to

go. The population decline between 2001-2011 could be an aberration rather than a trend to

be noticed in future years. The state is still marked by a high dependency ratio especially

among children. This calls for significant investment in human capital to tap demographic

dividend. At the same time, there is a steady increase in the working age population. This

calls for ways to create meaningful employment. The proportion of old age population is

very low. However, as birthrates fall and medical facilities improve with economic growth,

this is expected to increase though the state did witness a fall in old age population

proportion between 1991 and 2001. However, it has to be noted that even in that decade,

the absolute number of people aged above 60 increased. An encouraging trend from a

socio-economic perspective is the improvement in the gender dimension with female-male

ratio improving consistently over the decades in study. There are however questions that

cannot be answered looking at the data presented. The biggest question is the high growth

rate of population of 64% between 1991-2001 and a negative population growth between

2001-2011. As pointed out, this could be an aberration rather than the norm going ahead.

87
3.5: District-wise Age Structure: 1981-2011 Census

The present section looks at the age composition of different districts of the state over four

censuses namely 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011. The section seeks to answer an important

question: does the districts’ population composition reflect the demographic transition

theory of high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates over

the decades with consequent demographic dividend in between? A detailed analysis of the

population age structure data of the different districts of the state is done to come at a

conclusion. However, it has to be noted that, except for a broad overview, an in-depth

study is difficult for several reasons. The composition of the districts is very heterogenous.

Broadly, a district consisted of a tribe or two or more tribes. Due to historical reasons, it

was and is still the case, which the tribes visited first by Christianity and with it, school

education, became more developed than the tribes where Christianity and school education

went later. Due to the insurgency problem of the state, and the state being small and located

in the periphery of the country, the Central Government was not exactly particular about

the way the state was governed. In fact, the Constitution has a special provision for the

governance of the state in the form of Article 371 (A) where laws passed by the Indian

Parliament are inapplicable to the state unless the State Legislative Assembly ratifies it.

Added to this is the communitarian nature of the state where kin, village and tribe members

help one another to get government jobs and state contracts. All these meant that historical

inequalities of a few decades in the form of being Christianised and educated first meant

that some tribes became more developed. These inequalities have only been perpetuated. A

demand for a separate state to be carved out from the present state to be named Eastern

Nagaland point to this phenomenon. The state government itself understood these

88
inequalities and has provisions for reservation for different tribes in the state government

services. In recent years, different districts have been carved from the then existing districts

and the current districts broadly reflect a particular tribe. However, this was not the case till

2003-2004 when three new districts were formed. Certain tribes at present also reside in

districts where other tribes reside continuing the heterogeneity mentioned above not

forgetting the role of migration to districts such as Kohima and Dimapur.

Districts such as Kohima, Dimapur, Mokokchung, Wokha and Zunheboto are

resided by tribes which are generally not placed in the ‘backward’ category. The literacy

rates of these districts are also higher than the state’s average. Districts such as Phek, Mon,

Tuensang, Longleng, Kiphire, Peren and Noklak are resided by tribes placed in the

backward category. The literacy rates of these districts are also usually lower than the other

districts mentioned above. It has however to be noted that placing them in backward-

forward binaries do not tell the whole story. Naga society is egalitarian in nature marked by

social and economic mobility. It is a society neither divided by caste or class. Not only so,

there are districts which can be placed in the middle as neither developed nor backward

such as Phek.

3.6: District-Wise Age Structure as per 1981 Census

Table 3.6 looks at the population figure of the seven existing districts according to the 1981

census. One thing that catches the attention immediately is the high population of Kohima

which was over two lakhs and fifty thousand. This was one-third of the state’s total

population. Two other districts – Mokokchung and Tuensang–also had high population

figures though not as high as Kohima. Mokokchung and Tuensang, in terms of population

figure, can be placed in the medium category. These two districts together formed another

89
third of the total population. Other districts such as Phek, Wokha, Mon and Zunheboto had

population in the range of fifty thousand to eighty thousand and could be considered low

for this analysis. For the rest of this section, three categories will be used similar to the one

just used – high, medium and low – to understand the population composition of the

districts over the decades.

Children’s Population (0-14 years), 1981 census

Phek (32.84%) and Mon (34.10%) had low children population as a proportion of total

population. Districts such as Kohima (37.9%), Wokha (38.79%) and Zunheboto (38.78%)

had high children population as a proportion of total population. Two districts, namely,

Mokokchung (36.97%) and Tuensang (36.64%) had children population which can be

placed in the middle. Of note is Kohima which had a high children population with the

highest population district in the state. Mokokchung and Tuensang also had children as a

proportion of total population higher than the other districts baring Kohima. The high

population districts in this census thus had potential to grow higher in the coming decades.

Working’s Age Population (15-59 years), 1981 census

Phek had the highest working’s age population ratio at 61.11% while districts such as

Mokokchung (55.84%), and Zunheboto (55.26%) had low working age population. Other

districts such as Kohima (57.91%), Wokha (56.11%) Tuensang (56.36), and Mon (57.26%)

came in the middle.

Senior Citizens (60 years and above), 1981 census

Mokokchung (7.18%), Tuensang (6.98%) and Mon (8.63%) had high senior citizens. That

Mon and Tuensang, still considered backward was placed in the same category as

Mokokchung was of note. Kohima had the lowest senior citizens’ population as a

90
percentage of total population at just 4.09%. Other districts in the middle include Wokha

(5.08%), Zunheboto (5.95%), and Phek (6.04%). As a whole the state in 1981 was a state

with a very young population. Two districts which had low population, Wokha and Phek,

had only 2927 (Wokha) and 4268 (Phek) senior citizens in their districts.

Table 3.6: Total Population and Age Structure of Different Districts – 1981
Sr. No Districts Population 0-14 years 15-59 60 and above
1 Mokokchung 104193 38526 58182 7485
Percentage 100 36.97 55.84 7.18
2 Kohima 250105 95014 144855 10236
Age proportion 100 37.9 57.91 4.09
3 Wokha 57583 22341 32315 2927
Age proportion 100 38.79 56.11 5.08
4 Zunheboto 61161 23719 33801 3641
Age proportion 100 38.78 55.26 5.95
5 Phek 70618 23192 43158 4268
Age proportion 100 32.84 61.11 6.04
6 Tuensang 152332 55821 85863 10648
Age proportion 100 36.64 56.36 6.98
7 Mon 78938 26922 45200 6816
Age proportion 100 34.10 57.26 8.63
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1981

70
61.11
60 57.91 56.11 56.36 57.26
55.84 55.26

50

36.97 37.9 38.79 38.78

40 36.64
32.84 34.1
30 0-14 years
15-59
20
60 and above
7.18 6.98 8.63
10 4.09 5.08 5.95 6.04

Fig. 3.6: Districtwise age structure of Nagaland (1981)

91
3.7: District-Wise Age Structure as per 1991 Census

Table 3.7 looks at the population structure of the districts of the state according to 1991

census. The state’s total population grew 56% in that decade. The absolute population

figure thus varied widely. However, except for Wokha whose population grew by 18.50%,

all the other districts’ population grew at comparable rates. Kohima (3.87 lakhs) continued

to have the highest population figure occupying again nearly a third of the total population.

Districts such as Mokokchung (1.58 lakhs), Tuensang (2.33 lakhs), and Mon (1.49 lakhs)

could be placed in the middle consisting of 45% of the total population. The other districts

such as Phek (1 lakh), Zunheboto (0.96 lakh), and Wokha (0.68 lakh) all saw population

growth but had low population compared to the other districts in the state.

Children’s Population (0-14 years), 1991 census, Mokukchung with (32.49%) had the

lowest children population as a proportion of total population. Compared to the 1981

census, the 1991 census had a high number of districts which had high children population

i.e. relative to the districts with the highest and lowest children’s population. These include

Kohima (38.21%), Wokha (38.44%) and Zunheboto (38.57%), Tuensang (38.02%) and

Phek (39.70%). Mon had a children population of 35.43% placing it in the middle. Not

only was the previous decade a decade of high population growth, the 1991 census

showing districts with high children population meant that it could grow even more in the

years ahead.

Working’s Age Population (15-59 years), 1991 census

More districts in the 1991 census had low working age population relative to the highest

and lowest districts in that decade. Mokokchung with a figure of 60.39% had the highest

proportion of working age population among the districts, much higher than its 1981

92
census figure of 55.84%. Kohima which had a working age population of 58.13%

marginally increased from its previous figure of 57.91%. All the other districts, compared

to Kohima and Mokokchung had much lower working age population figures: Zunheboto

(55.88%), Wokha (56.33%) Tuensang (56.27), Mon (56.61%) and Phek (55.53%). The

decade saw the working age population of Phek reducing by 5.58% and Mokokchung

increasing by 4.55%.

Senior Citizens (60 years and above), 1991 census

Mon with 7.94% continued with the highest senior age population ratio. The district did see

a fall in senior population from 8.63% in the 1981 census. Tuensang in 1981 had 6.98%

and was among the districts with the highest senior population ratio. In 1991 however, its

senior population proportion fell to 5.69%. Kohima continued with the lowest senior

citizens’ population ratio at 3.6% falling further from its earlier 4.09% in 1981. Other

districts in the middle were Wokha (5.21%), Zunheboto (5.54%), and Phek (4.75%). As a

whole, Nagaland continued to have a low senior population in 1991 census.

Table 3.7: Total Population and Age Structure of Different Districts – 1991
Sr.no Districts Population 0-14 years 15-59 60 and above
1 Mokokchung 158374 51462 96440 10472
Age proportion 100 32.49 60.39 6.61
2 Kohima 387581 148118 225325 14138
Age proportion 100 38.21 58.13 3.6
3 Wokha 68235 26233 38442 3560
Age proportion 100 38.44 56.33 5.21
4 Zunheboto 96218 37115 53767 5336
Age proportion 100 38.57 55.88 5.54
5 Phek 102156 40559 56736 4861
Age proportion 100 39.70 55.53 4.75
6 Tuensang 232906 88571 131067 13268
Age Proportion 100 38.02 56.27 5.69
7 Mon 149699 53051 84757 11891
Age proportion 100 35.43 56.61 7.94
Source: Census of India 1991

93
 70
60.39
58.13 56.33 56.27 56.61
60 55.88 55.53

50
38.21 38.44 38.57 39.7 38.02
40 35.43
32.49
30
0-14 years
20 15-59
6.61 7.94 60 and above
10 3.6 5.21 5.54 4.75 5.69

Fig. 3.7: - Districtwise age structure of Nagaland (1991)

3.8: District-Wise Age Structure as per 2001 Census

By examining the table given below, population structure of the districts of the state

according to 2001 census. The state’s total population grew 64.41% in that decade

continuing with the high population growth rate. The district of Dimapur was created in

this decade (1997) and the total number of districts in the state grew to eight (8). Tuensang

became the state with the highest population with four lakhs. This was followed by Kohima

with 3.10 lakhs and Dimapur with 3.09 lakhs. These three districts made up more than fifty

percent of the state’s total population. Other districts saw large increase in population.

Mon, 1.49 lakhs in 1991 became 2.60 lakhs in 2001; Mokokchung, 1.58 lakhs in 1991 grew

to 2.32 lakhs in 2001. Phek at 1.48 lakh from 1 lakh, Wokha 1.61 lakh from 0.68 lakh and

Zunheboto 1.53 lakh from 0.96 lakh all saw large increase from 1991 census. Wokha’s

population in particular grew by 136.27% over the decade from 1991-2001.

94
Children’s Population (0-14 years), 2001 census

Mokukchung with 29.84% continued the lowest children population as a proportion of total

population. On the other hand, Phek with 41.22% had the highest children population.

Zunheboto at 39.55% also had a high children population. Districts which were in between

Phek and Zunheboto and Mokokchung were Kohima (36.41%), Dimapur (36.23%), Wokha

(37.04%), Tuensang (37.64%) and Mon (36.96%).

Working’s Age Population (15-59 years), 2001 census

Mokokchung continued with the highest proportion of working age population among the

districts with 63.79% much higher than its 1981 census figure of 55.84% and higher than

its 1991 figure of 60.39%. Dimapur at 60.35% stood second. Kohima was third at 59.46%

followed by Wokha at 59.13%. While Zunheboto came at a low 55.88%, the high working

age population proportion of these more developed districts of Kohima, Mokokchung,

Dimapur, and Wokha indicated that as of 2001 these districts could be transitioning to a

stage of demographic dividend compared to the other districts. Phek continued with low

working age population at 54.51%. Mon and Tuensang’s working age population in 2001

were 56.53% and 57.29% respectively.

Senior Citizens (60 years and above), 2001 census

Mon with 6.50% continued with the highest senior age population ratio. The district

however also continued the fall of senior population ratio from 8.63% in the 1981 to 7.94%

in the 1991 census. Mokokchung was also in the same league with Mon on high senior

population ratio at 6.17%. Tuensang in 1981 had 6.98% and was among the districts with

the highest senior population ratio. In 1991 however, its senior population proportion fell to

5.69%. In 2001, this further fell slightly to 5.06%. Other districts had even lower senior

95
population ratio. These included Kohima (4.12%) Wokha (3.81%), Zunheboto (4.55%),

Phek (4.25%) and Dimapur (3.40%).

Table 3.8: District-Wise Age Structure as per 2001

Sr.no Districts Population 0-14 15-59 60&above
1 260652 96345 147364 16943
Mon
% 100 36.96 56.53 6.50
2 414818 156154 237662 21002
Tuensang
% 100 37.64 57.29 5.06
3 232085 69276 148477 14332
Mokokchung
% 100 29.84 63.79 6.17
4 153955 60904 86039 7012
Zunheboto
% 100 39.55 55.88 4.55
5 161223 59728 95341 6154
Wokha
% 100 37.04 59.13 3.81
6 309024 111989 186506 10529
Dimapur
% 100 36.23 60.35 3.40
7 310084 112925 184376 12783
Kohima
% 100 36.41 59.46 4.12
8 148195 61088 80795 6312
Phek
% 100 41.22 54.51 4.25
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 2001

70
63.79
59.13 60.35 59.46
60 56.53 57.29 55.88 54.51

50
39.55 41.22
40 36.96 37.64 37.04 36.23 36.41
29.84
30
0-14
20 15-59
60&above
10 6.5 5.06 6.17 4.55 3.81 3.4 4.12 4.25

Fig. 3.8: District wise Age structure of Nagaland (2001)

96
3.9: District-Wise Age Structure as per 2011 Census

Table 3.9 looks at the population structure of the districts of the state according to 2011

census. The state’s total population which grew at 64.41% in the previous decade saw a

decline in the population between 2001- 2011. Some trends which had been noticed in the

previous decades became clear in the 2011 census. This is especially true of Mokokchung

with low children as a percentage of total population at 27.70%, high working age

population ratio with 63.74% and increasing senior population at 8.55%. Several districts

were carved from different districts during this decade and thus a few districts showed

population decreasing including Kohima (2.67 lakh from 3.10 lakhs), Tuensang (1.96 lakh

from 4.0 lakhs) and Mokokchung (1.94 lakhs from 2.32 lakhs). Apart from these

observations, one also notices the heterogeneity and divergences among the different

districts.

Children’s Population (0-14 years), 2011 census

As stated above, Mokokchung with 27.70% continued with the low children population as

a proportion of total population. Wokha at 30.9% also had low children ratio. On the other

hand, there were many districts with high children population including Kiphire (42.2%),

Longleng (38.48%), and Tuensang (40.17%). Three districts had children population which

were comparatively high but not as high as the mentioned three districts. These were Mon

(37.36%), Phek (37.88%) and Peren (37.3%). A few districts also had low children ratio

but not as low as Mokokchung and Wokha. These were Dimapur (31.21%), Kohima

(31.97%) and Zunheboto (34.8%). While the aggregate population of the state had fallen

from 2001-2011, without a doubt, the high children population would mean a population

increase in the future.

97
Working’s Age Population (15-59 years), 2011 census

The number of districts with high working age population increased in the 2011 census.

This is further confirmation of the state’s population demographic transition towards

demographic dividend. Districts with relatively high working population included:

Mokokchung (63.74%), Dimapur (64.43%), Kohima (63.53%), and Wokha (63.79%).

Districts in the medium working population ratio include Zunheboto (58.95%) and Peren

(58.15%). Districts with low working population ratio were Phek (56.70%), Mon (57.33%),

Longleng (55.92%), Tuensang (55.05%), and Kiphire (53.70%). It can be observed that the

districts with low working age population as of 2011 are the districts resided by tribes

considered backward.

Senior Citizens (60 years and above), 2001 census

Mon for the first time in four decades had a lower senior age population ratio at 5.40%.

This was not the lowest however, with several districts having much lower senior

population than Mon. These included Kiphire (4%), Tuensang (4.81%), Peren (4.54%),

Kohima (4.48%), and Dimapur (4.34%). Of interest is Kohima which consistently over the

four decades had a low senior population ratio. Districts on similar level with Mon in the

middle included Longleng (5.58%), Phek (5.40%), and Wokha (5.26%). Mokokchung had

the highest senior population at 8.55% followed by Zunheboto at 6.19%.

98
Table 3.9:Total Population and Age Structure of Different Districts – 2011
Sr.No Districts Population 0-14 years 15-59 60 and above
1 Mokokchung 194622 53912 124058 16652
Age proportion 100 27.70 63.74 8.55
2 Dimapur 378811 118258 244096 16457
Age proportion 100 31.21 64.43 4.34
3 Kohima 267988 85691 170275 12022
Age proportion 100 31.97 63.53 4.48
4 Wokha 166343 51473 106115 8755
Age proportion 100 30.9 63.79 5.26
5 Zunheboto 140757 49053 82979 8725
Age proportion 100 34.8 58.95 6.19
6 Peren 95219 35518 55376 4325
Age proportion 100 37.3 58.15 4.54
7 Phek 163418 61909 92671 8838
Age proportion 100 37.88 56.70 5.40
8 Mon 250260 93501 143491 13268
Age proportion 100 37.36 57.33 5.30
9 Longleng 50484 19430 28233 2821
Age proportion 100 38.48 55.92 5.58
10 Tuensang 196596 78987 108237 9372
Age proportion 100 40.17 55.05 4.81
11 Kiphire 74004 31300 39742 2962
Age proportion 100 42.2 53.70 4.00
Source: Statistical Handbook 2011

70
63.74 64.43 63.53 63.79
58.95 58.15 57.33 55.92
60 56.7 55.05 53.7
50
42.2
40.17
40 37.3 37.88 37.36 38.48
34.8
31.21 31.97 30.9
30 27.7
0-14 years

20 15-59

8.55 60 and above

10 4.34 4.48 5.26 6.19 4.54 5.4 5.3 5.58 4.81 4

Fig.3.9: District wise Age structure of Nagaland 2011

99
The different districts in the state do not have the same proportion of working age

population. Different districts have different population structure. Districts like Dimapur,

Mokokchung, Wokha and Kohima have higher proportion of independents. On the other

hand, districts like Kiphire, Longleng, Mon etc. have lower proportion of working

population. The former districts are associated with higher development while the latter are

associated with low development. It is thus interesting that the concept of demographic

dividend is being played out in Nagaland as well.

Nagaland has a young age population structure as a whole. However, these varies

among the different districts. These differences broadly reflect the tribal inhabitants of the

districts which are developing at different pace not the least due to historical reasons. As a

whole, the population is moving towards a population structure with more working age

population, what demographers call demographic dividend. The population structure of the

newly formed districts as well as the districts resided by less developed communities

reflect the broad trend of the first stage of demographic transition with existence of high

children population. This is expected to push the population even higher in the years to

come. The district of Mokokchung specifically reflect a district which has developed more

than the other districts with declining ratio of children as a proportion of total population,

higher working age population and increasing senior population. Some of the more

developed districts also show signs of demographic dividend with higher working age

population. However, the low senior age population and higher children ratio leads to

inconclusive conclusion as to the stage of demographic transition other than to say that

population growth is expected in the years to come.

100
3.10: Dependency Ratios

Dependency Ratios refers to the ratio of the population 0-14 years and 60 years and

above to the working population (15-59Years). In other words the number of persons in the

non-working age group (0-14 and 60+) per 100 persons of working age (15-59).

Demographic Transition and subsequent changes in age structure of population has resulted

in changes in the dependency ratios too. In 1981 the dependency ratio was 75.18% which

has reduced to 74.18% in 1991. It is further decreased in the subsequent decades and in

2011, it is 65.52%. It shows that the working age population proportion is increasing more

than the non-working population.

Table 3.10: Age Structure of Nagaland and dependency ratio

Dependents population Working age Population Dependency
Year
(0-14years+60 and above) (15-59 years) Ratio
1981 331558 440972 75.18
1991 514821 694725 74.1
2001 822724 1164082 70.67
2011 783229 1195273 65.52
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 2011

3.11: Dependency Ratio in 1981: Zunheboto and Mokokchung have the highest

dependency ratios with 80.94% and 79.08% in 1981 and Phek and Kohima have the lowest

dependency ratios with 63.62 and 72.65 respective in the same year.

Table 3.11: District-Wise Dependency ratio – 1981

Sr. Districts Dependent Population Working age population Dependency
no (0-14+60+years) (15-59years) Ratio
1 Mokokchung 38526+7485=46011 58182 79.08
2 Kohima 95014+10236=105250 144855 72.65
3 Wokha 22341+2927=25268 32315 78.19
4 Zunheboto 23719+3641=27360 33801 80.94
5 Phek 23192+4268=27460 43158 63.62
6 Tuensang 55821+10648=66469 85863 77.41
7 Mon 26922+6816=33738 45200 74.64
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland1981
101
3.12: District-Wise dependency Ratio- 1991

In 1981 Phek has the lowest dependency ratio with 63.62 was found to have the highest

dependency ratio of 80.05 in 1991. Mokokchung has the second highest dependency ratio

of 79.08 in 1981 was again found to have the lowest dependency ratio with 64.22 in 1991.

Table 3.12: District-Wise Dependency ratio – 1991

Working age
Sr. Dependent Population Dependency
Districts Population (15-
no (0-14 years+60+) Ratio
59years)
1 Mokokchung 51462+10472=61934 96440 64.22
2 Kohima 148118+14138=162256 225325 72.00
3 Wokha 26233+3560=29793 38442 77.50
4 Zunheboto 37115+5336=42451 53767 78.95
5 Phek 40559+4861=45420 56736 80.05
6 Tuensang 88571+13268=101839 131067 77.69
7 Mon 53051+11891=64942 84757 76.62
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1991

3.13: District-Wise Dependency Ratio 2001

Mokokchung has again maintained the lowest dependency ratio with 56.31 in2001

followed by Dimapur with 65.69 and Phek also again having the highest dependency ratio

with 83.42 in 2001.

Table 3.13: District-Wise Dependency Ratio– 2001

Working
Dependent Population (0- Dependency
Sr.no Districts Population
14+60+Years)) Ratio
(15-59years)
1 Mon 96345+16943=113288 147364 76.87
2 Tuensang 156154+21002=177156 237662 74.54
3 Mokokchung 69276+14332=83608 148477 56.31
4 Zunheboto 60904+7012=67916 86039 78.93
5 Wokha 59728+6154=65882 95341 69.10
6 Dimapur 111989+10529=122518 186506 65.69
7 Kohima 112925+12783=125708 184376 68.18
8 Phek 61088+6312=67400 80795 83.42
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 2001

102
3.14: District-Wise Dependency Ratio – 2011

Dimapur and Mokokchung were found to have the lowest dependency ratios with 55.18

and 56.87 in 2011. Kiphire and Tuensang have the highest dependency ratios with 86.21

and 81.63 respectively in 2011.

Table 3.14: District-Wise Dependency Ratio – 2011

Sr.no Districts Dependent population Working age Dependency
(0-14+60+ years) population (15- ratio
59 years)
1 Mokokchung 53912+16652=70564 124058 56.87
2 Dimapur 118258+16457=134715 244096 55.18
3 Kohima 85691+12022=97713 170275 57.38
4 Wokha 51473+8755=60228 106115 56.75
5 Zunheboto 49053+8725=57778 82979 69.62
6 Peren 35518+4325=39843 55376 71.94
7 Phek 61909+8838=70747 92671 76.34
8 Mon 93501+13268=106769 143491 74.40
9 Longleng 19430+2821=22251 28233 78.81
10 Tuensang 78987+9372=88359 108237 81.63
11 Kiphire 31300+2962=34262 39742 86.21
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 2001

3.15: Changing Scenario of occupational structure in Nagaland over Three Decades

(1981-2011)

Nagaland presents a curious case for population and work force related studies not only for

the absolute increase in population over a period of twenty years between 1981-2001 where

the population almost tripled over the twenty year period from 7.74 lakhs in 1981 to 19.90

lakhs and then decreasing marginally between 2001-2011 to 19.78 lakhs but also for many

other cases which at times seem to conform with the population trend observed in other

countries and at other times diverging from it. The chapter is an attempt to highlight certain

features related to population studies in the state. This is done for a period of thirty years

103
from 1981-2011. Certain features of the population and work force related data of the state

can be highlighted as follows.

3.16: High Population Growth of the State between 1981-2001 and Marginal Fall

between 2001-2011

The population census of Nagaland for 1981 stood at 7.74 lakhs. This increased to 12.09

lakhs in 1991, an increase of nearly 4.35 lakhs or 56.20%. The high population growth

continued in the subsequent decade where there was an increase of nearly 7.81 lakhs or

64.59% from 12.09 lakhs to 19.90 lakhs between 1991-2001 censuses. The total population

saw a marginal decline between 2001 and 2011 where the absolute total population fell

from 19.90 lakhs to 19.78 lakhs. These figures can be corroborated from the table 3.9.

Table 3.15: Population Statistics of Nagaland (1981-2011)

Census Total Population Increase Increased (%)
1981 774930 - -
1991 1209546 434616 56.08
2001 1990036 780490 64.52
2011 1978502 -11534 -0.58
Source: Compiled by self from state’s census data

Needless to say, the census data of Nagaland raise some serious questions on their

reliability. This is because without any noticeable effect of huge in-migration taking place,

the state’s population has exploded. A stable government structure has more or less existed

in the state and it was not a case of certain population group being excluded in the census

exercise in the previous decades. While some commentators have highlighted the role of

state’s enumerators at the ground to inflate population figures to have access to more

development funds from the government, which is an open secret, others have taken

different routes to explain the inherent lacunae. Since statehood, the government has

managed to put in place a network of health infrastructure and health personnel who have
104
managed to increase life expectancy, decrease infant mortality, provide better diagnosis

and medicines for health patients. A disease like tuberculosis which was dreaded is now

curable at minimum cost, and so on. All these have increased the life expectancy of people

as well as improve the quality of life lived by the people. While this partly explains the

high growth of population, the population census data of the state have to be taken with

some reservations.

The fall in total population between 2001 and 2011 also present some

uncomfortable questions. Nagaland happened to be the only state in India where the

absolute population fell between the census periods. Even a state with high level of Human

Development such as Kerala saw increase in population. Highly developed countries such

as Japan have seen stability in population figures, where population does not see much

increase or decrease. Population census data for Nagaland between 2001 and 2011 seems to

imply that Nagaland has also reached such a state. However, commensurate human

developments in terms of education, income and life expectancy have not reached such a

level where population stability can be expected. This is not to say that census data should

be rejected. However, while working with census data, one has to be careful in drawing

conclusions, especially for a socially and politically sensitive state like Nagaland. The

scholar is aware of the weaknesses present in the census data while working on it.

3.17: Decreasing share of cultivators and agriculture labourers

Like any economy in transition, Nagaland’s economy has seen a fall in the

contribution of the agricultural sector to the state’s Gross Domestic Product. This is in

conformity with the theory of Structural Transformation which states that an economy

moves from the agrarian sector, then to the secondary sector and finally to the service

105
sector. While the state’s agricultural contribution to state’s GSDP is falling, agriculture still

occupies an important place in the state’s economy as it employs the highest amount of

labor. The state’s agriculture sector employed 72.03 per cent of the labor force in 1981.

This fell marginally to 71.39 per cent in 1991 and then further to 68.21 per cent in 2001.

Decreasing importance of agriculture can be seen from the 2011 census where there was a

seven percentage fall between 2001 and 2011. In terms of absolute figures, the highest

increase in the agricultural labor force was seen between 1991 and 2001 where though the

proportion of people employed in the agricultural sector as a ratio of total labor force had

marginally fallen, there was an addition of 209,734 workers to the agricultural sector. By

contrast, between 2001 and 2011, there was an addition of only 22,380 workers to the

agricultural workforce in the state. These figures can be seen from table.

Table 3.16: Cultivators and agriculture labourers

Census Year Absolute Figure Percentage to Total Workforce
1981 269220 72.03
1991 368550 71.39
2001 578284 68.21
2011 600664 61.66
Source: Compiled by self from state’s census data

3.18: Stagnant Household Industry Workers

A falling share of workers employed in the agricultural sector assumes an increase

in the industrial sector. Since the manufacturing sector is more productive than the

agricultural sector, economies which have dominated the world in history had come about

as a result of strides made in the manufacturing sector. The Industrial Revolution in

England (which spread to Europe) and the consequent colonialism which followed, the

emergence of USSR and its socialistic principle of economic planning in the 1920s, the

emergence of Germany and Japan in the 1930s, the industrial boom in the US as a result of
106
the New Deal and the identification of USA as the manufacturing hub of the world before

the Second World War and after, and even recently, the availability of cheap industrial

products of China and its emergence as a new powerhouse-all point to the importance of

the secondary or manufacturing sector. India realized the importance of the manufacturing

sector quite early after independence with the Mahalanobis Model of the Two Sector

Model of the 2nd Five Year Plan being a prime example. The Make in India program, albeit

its failure to take off, given by Narendra Modi as soon as he assumed power in 2014 also

shows how India has given importance to the manufacturing sector.

In Nagaland too, much emphasis has been given to the manufacturing sector.

However, the state has been marked by sick industrial units, low and sporadic investment,

lack of accountability and transparency, and a failure of existing units to run at full

capacity. The state lacks the infrastructure in areas such as communication and transport; it

also lags behind in other critical areas such as finance and technical know-how. Political

unrest, a weak state government, and a lack of proper institutional mechanisms have also

contributed to the failure of the manufacturing sector taking-off. The lack of the industrial

sector can be seen from the data presented in table 14.3 where the total workforce in the

household industry sector, while increasing, is only 2.29 per cent as of 2011.

Table 3.17: Household industry workers

Census Year Absolute Figure Percentage to Total Workforce
1981 1461 0.39
1991 7649 1.15
2001 18072 2.13
2011 22338 2.29
Source: Compiled by self from state’s census data

The highest increase both in percentage and absolute terms of workers in the Household

Industry sector or broadly the manufacturing sector was between 1991 and 2001 when the
107
total workforce in the manufacturing sector increased from 7649 and more than doubled to

18072 for a rise of 136.26% within the ten year period.

3.19: Fluctuations in Other Occupational Categories

Besides agriculture and secondary sector, workers are employed in the service

sector or tertiary sector, characterised in the census data as ‘Others’ consisting of state’s

administration, hoteliers, shopkeepers, sports persons, teachers, politicians, lawyers, and so

on. The state has seen dramatic changes in this sector. It has been shown from table 3.21

that the state is seeing a steady decline in the proportion of workers employed in the

agricultural sector. Table 3.21 has shown the failure of the manufacturing sector to absorb

the workers released from the primary sector. The result has been a dramatic increase in the

marginal workers (to be shown in the next section) as well as fluctuations in the service

sector (table 3.21). There was a steady decline in proportion of workers employed in this

sector from 1981 to 2001. However, between 2001 and 2011, there has been a dramatic rise

in the proportion of workers employed in this sector. Though the increase in absolute

numbers have not been as high between 1991 and 2001 where the absolute number

increased from 128775 to 253625 for an increase of 124850 or 96.95%, owing to the

overall population lying steady between 2001 and 2011 (table 3.21), the increase of

workers in this sector to 3.5 lakhs in 2011 from 2.5 lakhs has resulted in the proportion of

workers in this sector to shoot up to 35.99 per cent from 22.91 percent or an increase of

13.08 percent within a decade.

108
 Table 3.18: Workers in tertiary sector
Census Year Absolute Figure Percentage to Total Workforce
1981 97640 26.12
1991 128775 24.94
2001 253625 22.91
2011 350620 35.99
Source: Compiled by self from state’s census data

3.20. Dramatic Increase in Marginal Workers

The state has seen a dramatic increase in the number of marginal workers. The

number of marginal workers as of 1981 was 5433 which fell to 4740 in the 1991 census.

However, this jumped to 1.43 lakhs in the 2001 census and continued to increase to 2.33

lakhs according to the 2011 census. These can be seen from the table 14.5. The number of

Main Workers has risen in tandem with the total population. As a result of the mismatch

between the growth rate of main and marginal workers, the ratio of marginal workers to

main workers have risen dramatically in 2001. This can be seen from the table 14.5 where

the ratio of marginal workers to 1000 main workers stood at 14.75 and 9.26 in 1981 and

1991 censuses respectively and jumped to 204.29 and 314.28 in 2001 and 2011 censuses

respectively.

Table 3.19: Dramatic Increase in Marginal Workers

Proportion of Marginal
Census Marginal Main Total Workers (Marginal
Workers to 1000 Main
Year Workers Workers Workers+Main Workers)
Workers
1981 5433 368321 373754 14.75
1991 4740 511497 516237 9.26
2001 143819 703977 847796 204.29
2011 232943 741179 974122 314.28
Source: Compiled by self from state’s census data

109
 350 Proportion of Marginal
Workers to 1000 Main
Workers
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1981 1991 2001 2011

Fig. 3.10: Increasing number of marginal workers

3.21. Steady Decline in Percentage of Main Workers to Total Population

Table 3.20 and the accompanying figure have presented how the number of marginal

workers has increased dramatically in the 2001 census and the 2011 census. Accompanied

with increasing marginal workers is a steady decline in the proportion of main workers to

total population. This is presented in Table 14.

Table 3.20: Percentage of Main Workers to Total Population

Census Year Percentage of Main Workers to Total Population
1981 47.52
1991 42.28
2001 35.37
2011 37.46
Source: Compiled by self from state’s census data

110
Table. 3.21: Distribution of Main Workers According to Occupation since 1981 census
Sr. no Occupational Category 1981 1991 2001 2011
Cultivators and Agriculture
269220 368550 578284 600664
1 Labourers
(72.03) (71.39) (68.21) (61.66)
Household Industry Workers 1461 7649 18072 22338
2
(0.39) (1.15) (2.13) (2.29)
Other Workers 97640 128775 253625 350620
3
(26.12) (24.94) (29.91) (35.99)
Total Main Workers
4 368321 511497 703977 741179
Total Marginal Workers
5 5433 4740 143819 232943
Total Main and Marginal Workers
6 373754 516237 847796 974122
Non- Workers
7 4001176 693309 1142240 1004380
Total Population
8 774930 1209546 1990036 1978502
Percentage of Main Workers to
9 47.52 42.28 35.37 37.46
Total Population
Percentage of Main & Marginal
10 48.23 42.68 42.60 49.23
Workers to Total Population
Percentage of Marginal Workers to
11 0.70 0.39 7.22 11.77
Total population
Percentage of Non-Workers to Total
12 51.64 57.32 57.40 50.77
Population

3.22. Structural Transformation by sectoral contribution to state’s GSDP

A previous section has mentioned how the participation of the workforce in the

state shows that the state is not following the same path of economic development and how

the industrial sector or the secondary sector has been skipped all along. Data on sectoral

contribution to state’s GSDP reveals a similar pattern of a falling share of the primary

sector, a fluctuating (with a decreasing and then increasing) trend of the secondary sector

and an increasing share of the tertiary sector. The next table and chart confirms this.

111
Table 3.22: Sectoral contribution to state’s GSDP.
Sectors 1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2001-02 2011-12
Primary Sector 36.28 37.63 32.18 33.38 26.71
Secondary Sector 25.12 12.47 8.49 10.86 13.73
Tertiary Sector 38.60 49.89 59.32 55.74 59.55
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1971-2011

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2001-02 2011-12

Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector

Fig. 3.11: Change in Share of Sectoral Contribution to State GSDP

3.23. District-Wise Occupational Structure in Nagaland (1981-2011)

The present section looks at the employment scenario in the state across districts from 1971

till 2011. The data used this section is presented in table 3.23. Certain features figure

prominently looking at the data:

1. Agriculture serves as the major source of employment in the state. This is true both

historically and in the present. Its share in the employment generation has been consistenly

above sixty percent.

112
2. The share of agriculture as a source of employment has been falling consistently from

73.09% in 1981 to 72.98% in 1991 to 68% in 2001 to 61.69% in 2011.

3. The household industry has occupied a small role in employment generation in the state.

While the sector has grown the fastest, its share as a proportion of total employment is still

insignificant - a mere 2.29% in 2011.

4. The share of services in employment has been growing consistently. This sector include

diverse areas such as government administration, education, hospitality, health etc. Its

share has grown from 26.50% in 1981 to 36% in 2011.

5. The structure of employment differs among the different districts. Services have

dominated in districts like Kohima and Dimapur relative to the other districts. In 2011,

services as a source of employment was 74.50% in Dimapur and 57.36% in Kohima. In

comparison, only 18.26% in 2011 were employed in the service sector from Tuensang. The

figure was even less for Mon at 14.72%.

6. Dimapur is often mentioned as the commercial capital of the state. The table shows that

1.12 lakhs were employed in the services sector in Dimapur district. This was 32.16% of

total employed in this sector in the state. Household industries in the district also make up

more than 20% of the state.

7. The non-existent industrial sector is a feature which comes out prominently. On the other

hand, agriculture and services play the dominant role. As of 2011, agriculture made up

40.83% in Kohima and services made up 57.36%, in Phek this was 72.56% and 25.85%, in

Wokha this was 68.75% and 28.74%, in Zunheboto this was 71.32% and 26.12%, in

Mokokchung it was 58% and 38.15%, in Tuensang it was 80.61% and 18.26%, in Mon it

113
was 84.19% and 14.72%, in Dimapur it was 22.14% and 74.50%, in Peren it was 70.71%

and 25.10%, in Kiphire it was 71% and 26.65%, and Longleng it was 77.89% and 20.15%.

Table 3.23: District-Wise Occupational Structure in Nagaland -1971-2011

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Remarks
269220 368550 578284 600664 Agri-Sector
Nagaland 1461 7649 18072 22338 Household Ind.
97640 128775 253625 350620 Others
64756 86776 79444 46882 Agri.- Sector
Kohima 782 2998 4504 2072 Household Ind.
46236 56425 50741 65871 Others
58250
29755 35689 72981 Agri.-Sector
1275
Phek 50 256 1442 Household Ind.
20752
6920 10869 16723 Others
53911
18889 25794 57121 Agri.-Sector
1965
Wokha 89 366 1435 Household Ind.
22536
5513 8374 17723 Others
56678
21780 27294 63781 Agri.-Sector
2025
Zunheboto 103 192 776 Household Ind.
20762
5989 12149 31898 Others
58091
29495 37854 72258 Agri.-Sector
3798
Mokokchung 293 1564 4056 Household Ind.
38178
12666 16896 32465 Others
79125 Agri.- Sector
65734 88947 191542
1104 Household Ind.
Tuensang 65 2044 1562
17925 Others
13119 16127 24990
124309 Agri.-Sector
38535 66201 114119
1608 Household Ind.
Mon 75 229 1521
21737 Others
7197 8135 13275
33674 33507 Agri.-Sector
Dimapur 2776 5073 Household Ind.
65810 112770 Others
43410 Agri.-Sector
2571 Household Ind.
Peren
15409 Other

22691 Agri.- Sector

Kiphire 749 Household Ind.
8519 Others
Agri.-Sector
23810
Household Ind.
Longleng 598
Others
6160
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1971-2011

114
As explained by Rostow, the traditional society implies a phase of economic stagnation

where the level of output per capita is low or more or less remaining constant over a period

of time. This condition is the result of the existence of ‘pre-Newtonian techniques’.

Further, Agriculture happens to be the main source of income of the state and more than

75% of the population is engaged in the stage of traditional society. When Nagaland

attained its Statehood in 1963, the economy was in the stage of almost ‘traditional society’.

Agriculture was the backbone of the economy where more than 85% of the population

were engaged in agriculture for livelihood. Further, the technique of production was more

or less pre-Newtonian type having a very low per capita output. There was no industry

worth mentioning. Further, there was not only lack of inventiveness and innovations but

also lack of effectiveness towards the physical world of post-Newtonian era. “The pre-

condition for take-off” in Rostowian term is a stage of economic transition during which

the institutional organization of the economy gradually begin to change and respond to

economic growth. The rate of net investment rises and gradually tends to outstrip

population growth. The build-up of social overhead capital grows and an infrastructural

base for growth is created. Some technical changes are also introduced in agriculture which

raises its productivity. As a consequence of these changes, the sectoral structure of the

economy starts to evolve. As explained by Rostow, the process of creating pre-conditions

for take-off from traditional society is the result of the following. “New type of enterprising

men comes forward in the private economy and government enterprise, or both, willing to

mobilize savings and take risks in pursuit of profit to modernization. Banks and other

institutions for mobilizing capital appear. Investments increase, notably in transport,

communications and in raw materials in which other nations may have an economic

115
interest. The scope of commerce, internal and external, widens. And here and there modern

manufacturing enterprise appears using the new method.”

3.24: Synthesis

In the tertiary sector, our main concern remain the exploding numbers of educated

youth. It is estimated that out of 19.78 lakh population, 8-10 lakh are in the employable

age. The demographic advantage of the state lies not only on in its large pool of educated,

energetic and progressive youth in the workable age but also in the inherent qualities of

these youth. The Naga youth are modern in outlook, having good command over English

language and further amendable and adaptive to change. On the one hand, employment in

the government sector for all is not possible. On the other hand, we do not have any

industries. Therefore, many of our educated youth are flocking to the metros such as Delhi,

Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore etc. in search of livelihood such as working in call centers

and BPOs sales boys and sales girls or as waiters and waitress in the hotels and restaurants.

In the past, Nagaland’s population has grown very rapidly and has imposed a substantial

burden of youth dependency on the economy. But in recent years, the study reveals that

Nagaland’s demographic profile has begun to evolve in a way that is potentially more

favourable to economic growth.

Demography is not destiny; growth of the working-age share of the population does

not automatically lead to an acceleration of economic growth. Demographic change may

provide a boost to economic growth, but appropriate policies are needed to allow this to

happen. Without such policies, a state may instead find itself with large numbers of

unemployed or under-employed working age individuals. This scenario would be a

“demographic disaster”, instead of demographic dividend, in some instances promoting

116
state fragility and failure, potentially with adverse political, social, economic, and

ecological spill overs to other neighboring states.

Table 3.24: Age Structure of the Nagaland state: 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011
Age groups 1981 1991 2001 2011
285536 451044 728409 679032
0-14
(36.84) (37.29) (36.60) (34.3)
440972 694725 1164082 1195273
15-59
(57.0) (57.43) (58.50) (60.4)
46022 63777 94315 104197
60 and above
(5.93) (5.27) (4.73) (5.3)
Total Population 774930 1209546 1990036 1978502
NSDP (Rs. in Lakh) 13078 69148 386411 1278809
PCI 1688 5717 17222 646352
Agricultural Productivity
.886 1.119 1.493 2.011
MT/Hectare
Source: Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1981-2011

The age structure of 15 to 59 years as demographic variable and NSDP, PCI and

Agricultural productivity as economic variables are taken the study of demographic

transition and its impact on economic development. Age between 0-14 and 60 and above

are not taken as demographic variable for testing since these two age structures are

considered as dependent population and not contributing to economic development.

Regression Techniques are also employed to estimate the extent of interrelationship

between a dependent variable and number of independent variables. To measure the

variables influencing determinants of economic development, it is used to calculate the R2

from the following model.

LogY = Log a + b LogX + u ------------------------- (1)

Where,

Y = Dependent variables

117
 X1 = Independent variables

a = Constant

b= Regression co-efficient value

u= Error term

The regression coefficient and overall variations are tested respectively by

calculating ‘t’ values and ‘F’ ratios. The goodness of fit of the estimated equation is

computed through R-squared and R-adjusted square values. Multiple regression technique

is used to assess the dependence of one variable on one or more variables. Dependent

variable is mainly expressed as a linear combination of independent variables. The

following hypothesis proposed.

The independent variables (X) are statistically significant at 1%, 5% and 10% level,

where the null hypothesis is rejected and there is relationship between the dependent

variables (Agricultural Productivity, Net State Domestic Product (NSDP), and Govt.

Revenue) and independent variables (Age below 15 years, Age below 60 years, Age above

60 years).

118
3.25: Impact of Age structure and NSDP, PCI and Agricultural Productivity

Table 3.25: Relationship between Age, NSDP, PCI and Agriculture productivity
X Correlation Regression
Y
(Age) r a b R2 ‘t’ S.E
NSDP 15-59 0.97 -48.57 4.108 0.94 6.028**. 0.68
PCI 15-59 0.99 -23.39 2.37 0.99 10.46 **. 0.22
Agriculture
15-59 0.94 -4.574 1.250 0.88 3.979 **. 0.31
productivity
Source: Computed (Figures in parentheses indicate t-values)
*. Significant at the 0.01 level, **. Significant at the 0.05 level,
***. Significant at the 0.10 level.

The correlation between 15-59 of age group populations and NSDP comes out to be 0.97.

The R square (0.948) indicates that 94.80% of the observe variability in NSDP is explained

by the independent variable i.e. 15-59 years of age group. Further, the estimated regression

coefficient shows that an additional increase in population between 15-59 years of age

increases the NSDP by 4.1 times. To see whether the regression analysis is significant or

not, t-test is undertaken. The result shows that the calculated value of ‘t’ is higher than the

table value. Therefore, the value of b is significant at 5 per cent. Hence, demographic

transition has positive impact on economic development. Therefore, the hypothesis is

accepted.

The estimated correlation between 15-59 of age group populations and PCI comes

out to be 0.99. The R square (0.99) indicates that 99% of the observe variability in PCI is

explained by the independent variable i.e. 15-59 years of age group. Further, the estimated

regression coefficient shows that an additional increase in population between 15-59 years

of age increases the PCI by 2.37 times. To see whether the regression analysis is significant

or not, t-test is undertaken. The result shows that the calculated value of ‘t’ is higher than

the table value. Therefore, the value of b is significant at 5 per cent.

119
 The estimated correlation between 15-59 of age group populations and agriculture

productivity comes out to be 0.94. The R square (0.88) indicates that 88% of the observe

variability in agriculture productivity is explained by the independent variable i.e. 15-59

years of age group. Further, the estimated regression coefficient shows that an additional

increase in population between 15-59 years of age increases the agriculture productivity by

1.25 times. To see whether the regression analysis is significant or not, t-test is undertaken.

The result shows that the calculated value of ‘t’ is higher than the table value. Therefore,

the value of b is significant at 5 per cent. Therefore, the hypothesis is accepted.

Table 3.26: Relationship between different sector and working population

Correlation Regression
Y (NSDP) X
r a b R2 ‘t’ S.E
Primary
Agri-workers 0.98 -51.96 4.83 0.97 8.14 0.59
Sector
Secondary Household
0.93 -4.30 1.55 0.86 3.58 0.93
Sector industry workers
Tertiary
Other workers 0.98 -30.24 3.43 0.96 7.64* 0.98
Sector
Source: Census of India and Statistical Handbook of Nagaland 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011
*. Significant at the 0.01 level, **. Significant at the 0.05 level,
***. Significant at the 0.10 level.

The estimated correlation between agri-workers and primary sector comes out to be 0.98.

The R square (0.97) indicates that 97% of the observe variability in primary sector is

explained by the independent variable i.e. agri-workers. Further, the estimated regression

coefficient shows that an additional increase in population of agri-workers increases the

primary sector by 4.83 times. The t-test analysis has shown that the impact of agri-workers

on primary sector is statistically significant at 1 per cent. Therefore, the hypothesis is

accepted.

120
The estimated correlation between household industry workers and secondary sector comes

out to be 0.93. The R square (0.86) indicates that 86% of the observe variability in

secondary sector is explained by the independent variable i.e. household industry workers.

Further, the estimated regression coefficient shows that an additional increase in population

household industry workers increases the secondary sector by 1.55 times. The t-test

analysis has shown that the impact of household industry workers on secondary sector is

not statistically significant. Therefore, the hypothesis is accepted.

The estimated correlation between other workers and tertiary sector comes out to be

0.98. The R square (0.96) indicates that 96% of the observe variability in tertiary sector is

explained by the independent variable i.e. other workers. Further, the estimated regression

coefficient shows that an additional increase in population of other workers increases the

tertiary sector by 3.44 times. The t-test analysis has shown that the impact of household

industry workers on secondary sector is statistically significant at 1 per cent.

3.26. Conclusions

The impact of the age structure and its impact on economic development of Nagaland state

are analysed with the help of regression and correlation equations. From the discussion it

was found that there is a high correlation between age structure and economic development

in Nagaland. Moreover, it was also found that age structures viz.,15-59 years has a positive

impact on NSDP, PCI and Agricultural Productivity which are statistically significant.

Thus, it was found that with the increase in working population there will be a positive

impact on Economic growth in state.

121