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Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 6 (Probability in Statistics) Exam, form A
1) Find the probability of getting an 11 when a pair of dice is rolled. Is it “significant” to get an 11 when a
pair of dice is rolled? Consider an event to be “significant” if its probability is less than or equal to
0.05.
A) 1/18; Yes
B) 1/18; No
C) 1/12; Yes
D) 1/12; No
2) Assume that a study of 500 randomly selected school bus routes showed that 480 arrived on time. Find
the probability of a school bus arriving late. Is it “significant” for a school bus to arrive late? Consider
an event to be “significant” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05.
A) 1/25; Yes
B) 1/25; No
C) 24/25; Yes
D) 24/25; No
3) A study of 600 college students taking Statistics 101 revealed that 54 students received the grade of A.
Typically 10% of the class gets an A. The difference between this group of students and the expected
value is not significant at the 0.05 level. What does this mean in this case?
A) The probability that the difference occurred due to chance is less than 0.05.
B) The probability of getting an A is 10% and only 9% got an A in this study. The difference is less
than 5% so it is not significant.
C) There is not enough information to make any conclusion.
D) The probability that the difference occurred due to chance is more than 0.05.
4) Find the probability of randomly selecting one of the 365 days of the year and getting a day in
December.
5) Find the probability of randomly guessing the correct answer to a particular multiple-choice question
on a test with possible answers of a, b, c, d, e, one of which is correct.
6) If you flip a coin three times, what is the probability of getting at least one head?
7) A bag of trail mix contains four items, a peanut, an almond, a chocolate chip, and a raisin. An item is
selected at random from the bag and then replaced in the bag. A second item is then selected at
random. Make a list of the possible outcomes (for example PA represents the outcome of a peanut
followed by an almond) and use your list to determine the probability that the items selected are the
same.
(Hint: There are 16 possible outcomes.)
8) A sample space consists of 46 separate events that are equally likely. What is the probability of each?
9) A bag contains 4 red marbles, 3 blue marbles, and 7 green marbles. If a marble is randomly selected
from the bag, what is the probability that it is blue?
10) Based on meteorological records, the probability that it will snow in a certain town on January 1st is
0.413. Find the probability that in a given year it will not snow on January 1st in that town.

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11) The distribution of B.A. degrees conferred by a local college is listed below, by major.
Major Frequency
English 2073
Mathematics 2164
Chemistry 318
Physics 856
Liberal Arts 1358
Business 1676
Engineering 868
Total 9313
What is the probability that a randomly selected degree is not in business?
12) The data set represents the income levels (in $) of the members of a country club. Find the probability
that a randomly selected member earns at least $98,000.
112,000 126,000 90,000 133,000 94,000 112,000 98,000 82,000 147,000 182,000
86,000 105,000 140,000 94,000 126,000 119,000 98,000 154,000 78,000 119,000
13) Suppose you have an extremely unfair coin: The probability of a head is 1/3 and the probability of a
tail is 2/3. If you toss the coin 72 times, how many heads do you expect to see?
14) Joe dealt 20 cards from a standard 52-card deck, and the number of red cards exceeded the number of
black cards by 8. He reshuffled the cards and dealt 30 cards. This time, the number of red cards
exceeded the number of black cards by 10. Determine which deal is closer to the 50/50 ratio of
red/black expected of fairly dealt hands from a fair deck and why.
A) The first series is closer because 1/10 is farther from 1/2 than is 1/8.
B) The series closer to the theoretical 50/50 cannot be determined unless the number of red and black
cards for each deal is given.
C) The second series is closer because 20/30 is closer to 1/2 than is 14/20.
D) The first series is closer because the difference between red and black is smaller than the
difference in the second series.
15) Suppose you pay $1.00 to roll a fair die with the understanding that you will get back $3.00 for rolling
a 5 or a 2, nothing otherwise. What is your expected value?
A) $1.00 B) $0.00 C) $3.00 D) $1.00

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Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
16) The following table is from the Social Security Actuarial Tables. For each age, it gives the probability
of death within one year, the number living out of an original 100,000, and the additional life
expectancy for a person of that age.
Male Female
P (Death Additional P (Death Additional
Number of Number of
Age within one Life within one Life
Living Living
year) Expectancy year) Expectancy
10 0.000111 99,021 65.13 0.000105 99,217 70.22
20 0.001287 98,451 55.46 0.000469 98,950 60.40
30 0.001375 97,113 46.16 0.000627 98,431 50.69
40 0.002542 95,427 36.88 0.001498 97,513 41.11
50 0.005696 91,853 28.09 0.003240 95,378 31.91
60 0.012263 84,692 20.00 0.007740 90,847 23.21
70 0.028904 70,214 12.98 0.018938 80,583 15.45
80 0.071687 44,272 7.43 0.049527 59,341 9.00
90 0.188644 12,868 3.68 0.146696 24,331 4.45
To what age may a male of age 70 expect to live on the average?

17) From the table in Problem 16, how many 70-year-old females on average will be living at age 71?
18) What is the probability of an event that is certain to occur?
19) The table below represents the type of car driven according to gender for a sample of 50 students.
Male Female
Domestic Car 15 7
Foreign Car 10 18
If one student is randomly selected, what is the probability of selecting a student that drives a foreign
car?
20) The following table summarizes data on commercial aviation flights in the United States for four
separate years.
Year Passengers (millions) Passenger miles Fatalities
(billions)
2000 666.2 692.8 92
2004 697.8 731.9 14
2008 690.2 722.8 3
2014 756.0 868.4 2
Find the fatality rate in deaths per billion passenger miles for 2008.

73
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 6 (Probability in Statistics) Exam, form B
1) Find the probability of getting an 11 when a pair of dice is rolled. Is it “significant” to get a total of 2
when a pair of dice is rolled? Consider an event to be “significant” if its probability is less than or
equal to 0.05.
A) 1/36; Yes
B) 1/36; No
C) 1/12; Yes
D) 1/12; No
2) Find the probability of guessing the correct day of the week of a person’s birth. Would it be
“significant” to guess the day of the week of a person’s birth? Consider an event to be “significant” if
its probability is less than or equal to 0.05.
A) 1/7; Yes
B) 1/7; No
C) 1/365; Yes
D) 1/365; No
3) A study of students taking Statistics 101 was conducted. Four hundred students who studied for more
than 10 hours averaged an 81. Two hundred students who studied for less than 10 hours averaged a 79.
This difference was significant at the 0.01 level. What does this mean?
A) The probability that the difference was due to chance alone is greater than 0.01.
B) There is less than a 0.01 chance that the first group’s grades were better by chance alone.
C) The improvement was due to the fact that more people studied.
D) There is not enough information to make any conclusion.
4) Find the probability of randomly selecting one of the 365 days of the year and getting a day in June.
5) Find the probability of randomly guessing the correct answer to a particular multiple-choice question
on a test with possible answers of a, b, c, d, one of which is correct.
6) If you flip a coin three times, what is the probability of getting at least two tails?
7) Sammy and Sally each carry a bag containing a banana, a chocolate bar, and a licorice stick.
Simultaneously, they take out a single food item and consume it. The possible pairs of food items that
Sally and Sammy consumed are as follows:
chocolate bar & chocolate bar
licorice stick & chocolate bar
banana & banana
chocolate bar & licorice stick
licorice stick & licorice stick
chocolate bar & banana
banana & licorice stick
licorice stick & banana
banana & chocolate bar
Find the probability that no chocolate bar was eaten.
8) A sample space consists of 52 separate events that are equally likely. What is the probability of each?
9) A class consists of 50 women and 82 men. If a student is randomly selected, what is the probability
that the student is a woman?
10) The probability that Luis will pass his statistics test is 0.94. Find the probability that he will fail his
statistics test.

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Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
11) 100 employees of a company are asked how they get to work and whether they work full time or part
time. The figure below, along with the key, shows the transportation results. If one of the 100
employees is randomly selected, find the probability that the person does not commute by public
transportation.

D A

Key to Graph: A) Public transportation: 7 full-time, 8 part-time

B) Bicycle: 3 full-time, 4 part-time
C) Drive alone: 29 full-time, 34 part-time
D) Carpool: 9 full-time, 6 part-time
12) Of 1308 people who came into a blood bank to give blood, 314 people had high blood pressure.
Estimate the probability that the next person who comes in to give blood will have high blood pressure
(to 3 decimal places).
13) Suppose you have an extremely unfair die: The probability of a 6 is 3/8, and the probability of each
other number is 1/8. If you toss the die 32 times, how many twos do you expect to see?
14) In the first series of rolls of a die, the number of odd numbers exceeded the number of even numbers
by 5. In the second series of rolls of the same die, the number of odd numbers exceeded the number of
even numbers by 11. Determine which series is closer to the 50/50 ratio of odd/even expected of a
fairly rolled die.
A) The second series is closer because the difference between odd and even numbers is greater than
the difference for the first series.
B) The first series is closer because the difference between odd and even numbers is less than the
difference for the second series.
C) Since 1/2 > 1/5 > 1/11, the first series is closer.
D) The series closer to the theoretical 50/50 cannot be determined unless the total number of rolls for
both series is given.
15) Suppose you buy 1 ticket for $1 out of a lottery of 1000 tickets where the prize for the one winning
ticket is to be $500. What is your expected value?
A) $0.00 B) $0.40 C) $1.00 D) $0.50

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Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
16) The following table is from the Social Security Actuarial Tables. For each age, it gives the probability
of death within one year, the number living out of an original 100,000, and the additional life
expectancy for a person of that age.
Male Female
P (Death Additional P (Death Additional
Number of Number of
Age within one Life within one Life
Living Living
year) Expectancy year) Expectancy
10 0.000111 99,021 65.13 0.000105 99,217 70.22
20 0.001287 98,451 55.46 0.000469 98,950 60.40
30 0.001375 97,113 46.16 0.000627 98,431 50.69
40 0.002542 95,427 36.88 0.001498 97,513 41.11
50 0.005696 91,853 28.09 0.003240 95,378 31.91
60 0.012263 84,692 20.00 0.007740 90,847 23.21
70 0.028904 70,214 12.98 0.018938 80,583 15.45
80 0.071687 44,272 7.43 0.049527 59,341 9.00
90 0.188644 12,868 3.68 0.146696 24,331 4.45
To what age may a male of age 50 expect to live on the average?
17) From the table in Problem 16, how many 60-year-old females on average will be living at age 61?
18) What is the probability of an event that is certain to occur?
19) The table below represents the type of car driven according to gender for a sample of 50 students.
Male Female
Domestic Car 15 7
Foreign Car 10 18
If one student is randomly selected, what is the probability of selecting a student that drives a domestic
car?
20) The following table summarizes data on commercial aviation flights in the United States for four
separate years.
Year Passengers (millions) Passenger miles Fatalities
(billions)
2000 666.2 692.8 92
2004 697.8 731.9 14
2008 690.2 722.8 3
2014 756.0 868.4 2
Find the fatality rate in deaths per billion passenger miles for 2014.

76
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 6 (Probability in Statistics) Exam, form C
1) Wisconsin has 72 counties. The names of six of them begin with the letter C. Find the probability of
randomly selecting a Wisconsin county and having it began with the letter C. Is it “significant” for a
randomly chosen Wisconsin county to be one of those six counties? Consider an event to be
“significant” if its probability is less than equal to 0.05.
A) 1/12; Yes
B) 1/12; No
C) 1/6; Yes
D) 1/6; No
2) If you are told that a mystery person’s birthday is in February, would it be significant to guess that
person’s birth date? Consider an event to be “significant” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05.
What is the probability of correctly guessing that mystery person’s birth date?
A) Yes; 1/29
B) No; 1/29
C) Yes; 1/12
D) No; 1/12
3) A study of two types of weed killers was done on two identical weed plots. One weed killer killed 15%
more weeds than the other. This difference was significant at the 0.05 level. What does this mean?
A) The improvement was due to the fact that there were more weeds in one study.
B) The probability that the difference was due to chance alone is greater than 0.05.
C) The probability that one weed killer performed better by chance alone is less than 0.05.
D) There is not enough information to make any conclusion.
For the observation described in problems 4 and 5, state whether there is one way for the
given observation to occur (outcome) or more than one way for the given observation to
occur (in which case it is an event).
4) Tossing one head with a penny followed by one tail with a dime
A) Outcome B) Event
5) Drawing three queens from a regular deck of cards
A) Outcome B) Event
6) If you flip a coin three times, the possible outcomes are HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH,
and TTT. What is the probability that at least two heads occur consecutively?
7) A bag contains four chips of which one is red, one is blue, one is green, and one is yellow. A chip is
selected at random from the bag and then replaced in the bag. A second chip is then selected at
random. Make a list of the possible outcomes (for example RB represents the outcome red chip
followed by blue chip) and use your list to determine the probability that the two chips selected are the
same color.
(Hint: There are 16 possible outcomes.)
8) A die with 12 sides is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number less than 11? Is this the same
as rolling a total less than 11 with two six-sided dice? Explain.
9) In a poll, respondents were asked whether they had ever been in a car accident. 220 respondents
indicated that they had been in a car accident and 370 respondents said that they had not been in a car
accident. If one of these respondents is randomly selected, what is the probability of getting someone
who has been in a car accident? Round to the nearest thousandth.
10) If a person is randomly selected, find the probability that his or her birthday is not in May. Ignore leap
years. There are 365 days in a year. Express your answer as a fraction.

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Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
11) 100 employees of a company are asked how they get to work and whether they work full time or part
time. The following figure, along with the key, shows the results for transportation. If one of the 100
employees is randomly selected, find the probability that the person does not ride a bicycle.

D A

Key to Graph: A) Public transportation: 8 full time, 9 part time

B) Bicycle: 3 full time, 5 part time
C) Drive alone: 29 full time, 27 part time
D) Carpool: 9 full time, 10 part time
12) In a certain class of students, there are 10 boys from Wilmette, 4 girls from Kenilworth, 9 girls from
Wilmette, 5 boys from Glencoe, 5 boys from Kenilworth and 6 girls from Glencoe. If the teacher calls
upon a student to answer a question, what is the probability that the student will be a girl? Express
your answer to 3 decimal places.
13) Suppose you have an extremely unfair coin: The probability of a head is 1/5, and the probability of a
tail is 4/5. If you toss the coin 40 times, how many heads do you expect to see?
14) Jody checked the temperature 12 times on Monday, and the last digit of the temperature was odd six
times more than it was even. On Tuesday, she checked it 18 times and the last digit was odd eight
times more than it was even. Determine which series is closer to the 50/50 ratio of odd/even expected
of such a series of temperature checks.
A) The Monday series is closer because 1/6 is closer to 1/2 than is 1/8.
B) The Monday series is closer because 6/12 is closer to 0.5 than is 8/18.
C) The Tuesday series is closer because the 13/18 is closer to 0.5 than is 9/12.
D) The series closest to the theoretical 50/50 cannot be determined without knowing the number of
odds and evens in each series.
15) A 28-year-old man pays $125 for a one-year life insurance policy with coverage of $140,000. If the
probability that he will live through the year is 0.9994, to the nearest dollar, what is the man’s expected
value for the insurance policy?
A) $139,916 B) $41 C) $84 D) $124

78
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
16) The following table is from the Social Security Actuarial Tables. For each age, it gives the probability
of death within one year, the number living out of an original 100,000, and the additional life
expectancy for a person of that age.
Male Female
P (Death Additional P (Death Additional
Number of Number of
Age within one Life within one Life
Living Living
year) Expectancy year) Expectancy
10 0.000111 99,021 65.13 0.000105 99,217 70.22
20 0.001287 98,451 55.46 0.000469 98,950 60.40
30 0.001375 97,113 46.16 0.000627 98,431 50.69
40 0.002542 95,427 36.88 0.001498 97,513 41.11
50 0.005696 91,853 28.09 0.003240 95,378 31.91
60 0.012263 84,692 20.00 0.007740 90,847 23.21
70 0.028904 70,214 12.98 0.018938 80,583 15.45
80 0.071687 44,272 7.43 0.049527 59,341 9.00
90 0.188644 12,868 3.68 0.146696 24,331 4.45
To what age may a male of age 60 expect to live on the average?
17) From the table in Problem 16, how many 50-year-old females on average will be living at age 51?
18) What is the probability of an event that is impossible to occur?
19) The table below represents the type of car driven according to gender for a sample of 50 students.
Male Female
Domestic Car 10 7
Foreign Car 15 18
If one student is randomly selected, what is the probability of selecting a student that drives a domestic
car?
20) The following table summarizes data on commercial aviation flights in the United States for four
separate years.
Year Passengers (millions) Passenger miles Fatalities
(billions)
2000 666.2 692.8 92
2004 697.8 731.9 14
2008 690.2 722.8 3
2014 756.0 868.4 2
Find the fatality rate in deaths per billion passenger miles for 2000.

79
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 6 (Probability in Statistics) Exam, form D
1) Find the probability of being dealt an ace when you are dealt one card from a standard 52-card deck. Is
it significant to be dealt an ace when you are dealt one card from a standard 52-card deck? (There are
four aces in the deck.) Consider an event to be “significant” if its probability is less than or equal to
0.05.
A) 1/13; Yes
B) 1/13; No
C) 1/4; Yes
D) 1/4; No
2) A collection of western novels by Zane Grey available from Amazon for a Kindle device contains 26
novels. If one novel is selected at random, find the probability that the novel selected was The
Mysterious Rider? If one novel is selected at random, would it be considered significant if the novel
selected was The Mysterious Rider? Consider an event to be “significant” if its probability is less than
or equal to 0.05.
A) 1/26; Yes
B) 1/26; No
C) 13/50; Yes
D) 13/50; No
3) The advertising for a cold remedy claimed that no other cold remedy acted faster. In a experiment to
compare that remedy with another one, it did act faster on average, but the result was not significant at
the 0.05 level. What does this mean?
A) The probability that the difference occurred due to chance is greater than 0.05.
B) The probability that the difference occurred due to chance is less than 0.05.
C) The difference was due to one cold remedy being ineffective.
D) There is not enough information to make any conclusion.
For the observation described in problems 4 and 5, state whether there is one way
for the given observation to occur (outcome) or more than one way for the
observation to occur (event).
4) A coin is tossed three times and HHT (heads, heads, tails) is observed. Is this result an outcome or an
event?
A) Outcome B) Event
5) Five electronic switches are tested at random from a day’s production and the first one is found to be
defective. Not knowing the status of the other four, is this observation an outcome or an event?
A) Outcome B) Event
6) If you flip a coin three times, the possible outcomes are HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH,
TTT. What is the probability of getting at least one head and at least one tail?
7) From four men and two women, a committee is formed by drawing four names out of a hat. List all
possible drawings and determine the probability that two men and two women are selected. (Hint:
Your list should contain 15 possibilities.)
8) If a sample space has 5000 equally likely possible outcomes, what is the probability of each one?
9) A bag of marbles hold 5 red marbles, 6 green marbles and 14 blue marbles. If one marble is drawn
out, what is the probability that it green?
10) If a quarterback completes 67% of his passes, what is the probability that he will not complete his next
pass?

80
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11) At a meeting of people interested in genealogy, the following nationalities were represented.
Nationality Frequency
English 42
Norwegian 73
Danish 37
German 26
French 13
Italian 51
Total 242
One person is selected to win a door prize. What is the probability that the person selected is not
Danish?
12) In 2012, Michael Fiers’s record as a pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers was 9 wins and 10 losses.
In those 19 games he gave up the following numbers of hits:
5, 8, 10, 4, 2, 7, 5, 4, 8, 3, 9, 5, 5, 4, 6, 5, 6, 9, 6
Given that Michael Fiers wins or loses a game, estimate the probability that he gives up fewer than 6
hits.
13) Suppose that you have a loaded die for which the probabilities of the numbers 1 through 6 are given
below.
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/21 4/21 6/21 2/21 3/21 5/21
If you roll this die 630 times, how many times should you expect to see a 1 or a 2?
14) Suppose that you pay $2 to roll the die in Problem 13 with the understanding that you will receive $6 if
it comes up a 1 or a 3, but nothing otherwise. What is your expected value?
15) In 2012, the U.S. death rate was 10.25 per 100,000 people due to motor vehicle accidents. Motor
vehicles in the U.S. were involved in fatal crashes at the rate of 1.08 per 100 million miles driven. If
the population of the U.S. is 300,000,000, what is the expected number of deaths due to motor vehicle
accidents?

81
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
16) The following table is from the Social Security Actuarial Tables. For each age, it gives the probability
of death within one year, the number living out of an original 100,000, and the additional life
expectancy for a person of that age.
Male Female
P (Death P (Death
Number of Life Number of Life
Age within One within One
Living Expectancy Living Expectancy
Year) Year)

10 0.000111 99,021 65.13 0.000105 99,217 70.22

20 0.001287 98,451 55.46 0.000469 98,950 60.40
30 0.001375 97,113 46.16 0.000627 98,431 50.69
40 0.002542 95,427 36.88 0.001498 97,513 41.11
50 0.005696 91,853 28.09 0.003240 95,378 31.91
60 0.012263 84,692 20.00 0.007740 90,847 23.21
70 0.028904 70,214 12.98 0.018938 80,583 15.45
80 0.071687 44,272 7.43 0.049527 59,341 9.00
90 0.188644 12,868 3.68 0.146696 24,331 4.45
To what age may a female of age 60 expect to live on the average?
17) From the table in Problem 16, how many 60-year-old females on average will be living at age 61?
18) What is the probability of an event that is impossible to occur?
19) The table below represents the type of car driven according to gender for a sample of 50 students.
Male Female
Domestic Car 10 7
Foreign Car 15 18
If one student is randomly selected, what is the probability of selecting a student that drives a foreign
car?
20) The following table summarizes data on commercial aviation flights in the United States for four
separate years.
Year Passengers (millions) Passenger miles Fatalities
(billions)
2000 666.2 692.8 92
2004 697.8 731.9 14
2008 690.2 722.8 3
2014 756.0 868.4 2
Find the fatality rate in deaths per billion passenger miles for 2004.

82
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 “I should say it was a clear case,” said Evans, “that the whole
game hung on our navy. While the enemy keep their fleet intact and
maintain the complete control of the Mediterranean, the Northern
armies can never score a decisive victory; and if the Turks are left in
control of the Atlantic the attrition will all come on our side. We must
establish and keep up a steady flow of supplies from both North and
South America to maintain even the present status; and we must
destroy their navy to win the war.”
Thus the conversation progressed to a discussion of the basic
principles of naval policy and strategy, in which Mortimer, as more
than once before, found himself marveling at Evans’s clearness and
breadth of vision. None of the admirals at the heads of bureaus in
Washington had seemed able to see things in so large a perspective;
none had helped him to grasp the fundamental principles of the
problem before him as this man, trained in science, yet versed in
naval affairs as well.
The small cabin clock struck two-bells.
“Let’s have some lunch, Sam,” said Evans. “Take the wheel, steer
as you’re going, due south, while I get the stuff out.”
He disappeared down the hatch with the nimbleness of a boy in
his teens, and began to prepare a simple lunch over an alcohol
stove. As Mortimer sat at the wheel with the warm wind off the Cape
Cod shore fanning his cheek, he pondered over this simple child of
Nature, to all appearances a college boy on a vacation, whose
characterization of the crisis offered so much food for thought.
Soon Evans reappeared in the cockpit with an appetizing meal
which they ate in camp style, Evans steering and eating at the same
time, not appreciably to the detriment of either task. Again he left
Mortimer at the wheel while he addressed himself to the task of
cleaning up. When next he came on deck, he found Mortimer
manifestly drowsy and a good two points off the course. The warm
shore wind, the peace and quiet and the relaxation from constant
strain, conspired to overcome him. Evans reached below for a pillow
and placed it on the lee side.
 “Here, stretch out on the cockpit seat and take a good nap,” he
said.
Mortimer relinquished the wheel, and soon was fast asleep.
When next he waked the afternoon was well advanced. The air
felt rather close and muggy, and so hazy was it that the sun shone
dimly, and the land, only three or four miles away, was scarcely
visible.
“Where are we?” he asked.
“There’s Chatham nearly abeam,” said Evans. “The barometer’s
falling; I think we may get a squall.”
“Your boat will stand it, I trust?”
“She’ll stand it, all right,” said Evans with a laugh. “She’ll stand
anything that blows. The only practical question is whether to take
the short cut between Bearse Shoal and Monomoy. It saves two or
three miles, and if it’s going to be rotten weather it’ll be more
comfortable for old men like us to get into some sheltered water
before dark.”
“What is there against the short cut?”
“Well, if it should get thick with rain it would be a little hard to see
where we were, and there are shoals on both sides; also it’s all so
shoal there that a heavy squall from the northeast would kick up an
infernal rip with the tide running the way it will be when we get
there. But then, a rip can’t hurt us unless it’s bad enough to let her
touch bottom in the trough, and it would take a first-class hurricane
to do that.”
“Well, all I ask is that you avoid a serious shipwreck, for I’ve
responsibilities ahead that I really ought not to sidestep.”
“You can trust the Petrel to get you through,” said Evans.
“Not to mention her skipper,” answered Mortimer.
Still the west wind held and the little boat stood on till Chatham
was on the starboard quarter and no longer visible through the haze.
The air still felt warm and heavy; in the northeast, through the haze,
dark clouds could be dimly seen gathering. Evans trimmed in his
sheets and luffed toward the point of Monomoy. Pollock Rip Slue
Lightship was visible, and on that Evans took a careful bearing and
wrote it down, together with the time. Monomoy could barely be
seen as a faint white line of sand to the westward. No landmark
there could be identified, but Evans noted the bearings of as much
of it as he could see, then studied the chart. He took a look round at
the sky, left the wheel, and glanced at the barometer.
“Glass is falling fast,” he said. “Take the wheel a minute while I
put on rubber boots and oilers; then you can do the same.”
He dived below and soon came up dressed in oilskins and
sou’wester, took the wheel, and sent Mortimer down to put on his
spare set. Suddenly a chill wind struck from the northeast; the sails
went over and fetched up on the sheets to starboard.
“What’s up?” called Mortimer from below.
“Wind’s shifted; nothing much yet,” answered Evans as he
trimmed over the jib and slacked the main sheet.
Mortimer came on deck. Evans was looking now at the compass
and now at the clouds in the northeast, already looking murky and
ominous.
“I’m heading for that short cut,” said Evans. “I could still go out
round Pollock Rip, but it would waste a lot of time and we’ll be all
right in here. I know where we are well enough to hit the channel; if
it blows hard the rip will be rather sensational at the shallowest
point, but won’t do us any harm. She’s built so strong that even if
she did touch the sand in the trough of a wave, it wouldn’t hurt her.”
The wind was now blowing freshly from the northeast and the
Petrel was driving along before it at a good speed.
“Isn’t it about time to reef?” asked Mortimer.
“We shan’t need to. That’s the beauty of this rig; you can shorten
sail to your heart’s content without reefing.”
The clouds grew darker and the wind increased till whitecaps
appeared and dotted the sea, and the little boat sped on before it
with increasing speed.
“Time to get in the mainsail,” said Evans; “take the wheel; steer
southwest by west, and hold your course as close as you know how.”
Then he let go the halyards, and running forward with a couple of
stops in his hand, had the sail down and roughly furled in a few
seconds.
“Now,” he said, taking the wheel again, “she’ll stand a whole lot of
wind this way. Hold the chart for me. This channel isn’t buoyed, and
the chart helps.”
Even with only the mizzen and jib the Petrel made good speed;
and now with the stiff wind and east-running tide, the whitecaps
were increasing to good-sized breakers. Then the dark clouds to
windward gathered themselves into a huge black knot, black as ink
and roughly funnel-shaped. Like a giant projectile this black mass
approached, coming at an astounding speed.
“This is going to be a good one,” said Evans. “It’ll be thick in a
minute, I wouldn’t mind seeing a landmark ahead. Ah! there’s
Monomoy Light.”
Straining his eyes he could barely make out the lighthouse and
get an approximate bearing on it. But Mortimer’s eyes were riveted
on the colossal black storm-cloud whirling through space toward him
in a way that fairly took his breath away.
“The jib’s all we’ll want when this hits,” said Evans, and in another
second or two he had the mizzen down and a stop around it.
AND THEN THE THING STRUCK
 And then the thing struck. So violent was the blow that it seemed
as if the boat might be lifted from the water and carried through
space. The air was full of flying water—sheets of spray blown from
the tops of the waves, while overhead a darkness almost like the
night closed in. Rain came driving horizontally in sheets, and
lightning flashed round half the horizon. It was impossible to see a
quarter of a mile.
Mortimer looked at Evans whose eyes scarcely left the compass,
and saw in his face alertness, steadiness, and strength; and the fear
which such an overwhelming outburst of the fury of the elements
had naturally aroused in him was effectually quelled.
Almost as quickly as it had come the black cloud blew over,
leaving a sense of dazzling brightness by contrast, although the sky
was still heavily clouded. For three or four minutes the wind blew
with almost unabated fury, the little boat scudding bravely before it
under her jib. Then the wind moderated enough to relax the tension,
but still blew hard enough to make them glad of shortened sail.
“Eighty miles an hour, I’ll bet, during the height of that,” said
Evans. “All of forty, still.”
And now the waves had become high and steep and short.
“We’re getting into that tide rip I spoke of; the water’s getting
shoal. The sand’s so white it looks shoaler than it really is.”
Mortimer looked ahead and saw through the rain great whitecaps
forming an almost solid line like the breakers on a beach, and in the
troughs of the waves the white sand bottom gleamed alarmingly
near.
“Lord! are we going into that?” he asked.
“She won’t touch, and the waves can’t hurt her. They may come
aboard now and then, but they’ll drain right out through the cockpit
scuppers. You might close the cabin hatch.”
The waves grew higher and steeper, and now they were in a mass
of breaking whitecaps. Each wave lifted the little boat up, and with
her nose deep down in the trough, she would dash forward with
amazing speed till the wave broke all around her and she came to a
stop in a smother of foam. Looking back, it often seemed as though
the waves, towering high and curling over the stern, would swamp
the boat completely, but each time the stern rose gracefully, and at
most a few gallons of water would splash into the cockpit.
“I didn’t suppose any boat could live in this,” said Mortimer.
“It sometimes surprises me to see how well she rides these
things,” answered Evans. “I’d like to see that lighthouse again to
make sure we’re in the channel. We should in a minute, as the rain’s
letting up, and we’re getting near to it. There it is. We’ll be through
most of it in a minute now.”
Then, with series of plunges, in each of which it seemed as if she
must drive her bow into the white sand, so close below the surface it
appeared, the Petrel passed through the roaring breakers into the
deeper water beyond, where, rough as it was, it seemed like a
haven of refuge compared with the rip they had come through.
Mortimer breathed more freely. “I don’t mind saying I felt scared
coming through that,” he said. “I’m glad you know this game as well
as you do.”
“I’m not sorry to be through it myself,” said Evans. “It was quite
rough enough for a bit. I don’t think I ever saw such an ugly squall,
and I’ve seen some bad ones. Still, as long as I had that bearing on
Monomoy Light we were in no danger. Quarter of a mile out of the
channel, it’s so shoal she might have hit.”
“What would you have done if you hadn’t got that bearing?”
“I guess I’d have stood off and waited till it cleared enough to see
the lighthouse, or else beat out round Bearse Shoal, and that would
have been a hell of a rough thrash to windward; still, it wouldn’t
have hurt us any.”
“It looks to me as if the gods had a way of fighting on your side,”
said Mortimer. “Do you always get away with it when you take a
chance like that?”
Evans looked serious. “I don’t know as I can claim that,” he said,
“but Fortune has been pretty good to me in her own way. Maybe I
was rather foolish to go through that. It will be smoother from now
on; there’ll be some small rips, but nothing like that one. I think
we’d better make for Hyannis. We could anchor in Chatham Roads,
but that would be exposed if the wind turned southwest. Hyannis is
a good harbor in any wind, and it will be easy getting in after dark
with Bishop and Clerk’s and the harbor range lights to steer by. It’ll
be handier for you in the morning, too. Take her while I hoist the
mizzen; we may as well have that now.”
In another minute the little boat was speeding on before the gale
under mizzen and jib. The rain had subsided, but a leaden twilight
was closing in. Monomoy appeared as a low white streak of sand on
the starboard beam. Hugging it close, they rounded Monomoy Point
and luffed to clear the north end of Handkerchief Shoal. Evans went
below and lit the running lights, then, starting a fire in the small coal
stove in the galley, put some potatoes and rice on to boil. Then he
came on deck with some pilot biscuit and chocolate, and the two
friends settled down in the snug little cockpit to enjoy their sail
through the shoals in the gathering darkness.
Soon their talk drifted back to the all-important topic of the
coming crisis.
“It always seemed to me,” said Evans, “that a navy could
conveniently be likened to a living organism, a man, for instance. A
man has senses—sight, hearing, etc.—which tell him what’s
happening about him. Nerves carry the impressions from the sense
organs to the central station, the brain, where information is sorted
into the springs of action; other nerves carry messages from the
brain to the muscles that work the arms and legs—and incidentally
the teeth. Now in the navy your patrols, scouts, planes, drifters, etc.,
with their observers and hydrophones, and all forms of radio
receiving apparatus, are the senses, and I should include under that
head, spies. In place of the muscles, fists, and teeth you have the
ships’ engines and the guns, torpedoes, bombs, and such like. The
nervous system is the general staff which determines policy, the
admirals who execute it, and communications which are the nerves
that bring information into the navy’s brain, and in turn give the
word for action. Communications, of course, comprise flag signals,
blinkers, semaphores, couriers, postal service, telephones, telegraph,
radio, and the newer methods, such as infra-red rays.
 “Now it seems to me the importance of communications hasn’t
been emphasized half enough. The methods available are highly
developed, but their value isn’t clearly enough appreciated. You can
hardly find a finer, keener, better-trained bunch of men anywhere
than the officers of our navy, but the profession has grown so
complex and the duties to be learned so manifold that it takes an
exceptional man to grasp all the possibilities science has developed
and to see them in a proper perspective. The average naval officer
takes far more interest in ordnance and gunnery than he does in
communications. The difference between an athlete and a lummox is
not in the muscles, but in the nervous system which coördinates
their action. Provided the muscles are not atrophied or diseased,
they’ll do what the nerves tell ’em to. Now gunnery is obviously
important—so obviously that the personnel tends to look on it as the
whole thing. Of course it must be efficient, but it has been ever
since Sims made it so; it must be kept up to the mark, but it is a
strong tradition in the navy to keep it so, and I don’t think you’ll
have any trouble on that score. It is intelligence and coördination,
and communication in particular that you must look out for in order
to make your fighting strength effective. Just as the skill and wisdom
of the gunnery officer direct the titanic force of the guns to the point
where it is most telling, so the controlling mind, acting through
communications, directs the force of the entire fleet; that’s the field
where the minimum energy will yield the largest return; put your
best efforts in there.”
“Don’t forget morale,” said Mortimer.
“Quite right,” said Evans; “morale is more than half the fight;
without it no amount of skill or intelligence will avail; but without the
aid of the mind morale is flung helpless at the mercy of superior skill
in an opponent. I am inclined to assume morale; and I believe it is a
justified assumption, for to stress and foster it is a tradition well
maintained in our service.”
Evans went on to explain to Mortimer some of the methods of
communication which had been developed: the internal
communications in a ship, the dual use of a single antenna to
receive two messages simultaneously on different wave-lengths, the
use of infra-red rays for secret messages between ships in a fleet,
and many other things which Mortimer had never had time to learn.
“I wish I could make you Director of Naval Communications,” said
Mortimer. “Unfortunately the rank that goes with that position is rear
admiral. Under the existing regulations the highest rank I could give
you is lieutenant-commander. If you were a captain, I could make
you a temporary rear admiral in order to hold that position, but I
don’t know of any way that it could be done straight from civil life.”
“If I were you I wouldn’t try to make me an admiral or even a
lieutenant-commander,” answered Evans. “Professional naval officers
are apt to resent having men out of civil life put over them with
superior naval rank. They’d feel that I was ‘striped way up,’ even as
lieutenant-commander, and that I hadn’t earned my rank. I should
encounter friction and difficulties in consequence. I sure want to
help you in any capacity I can, but my suggestion is that you make
me a warrant officer, say radio gunner.”
“Radio gunner!” exclaimed Mortimer; “that’s a pretty small job for
you. You’d be subordinate to a lot of ensigns just out of Annapolis.”
“It’s not necessarily such a small job; officers of high rank are apt
to heed the advice of a dependable warrant officer, regarding him as
a technical expert. Often they respect a warrant officer who knows
his business a good deal more than they do ensigns and lieutenants.
If he works his opportunities right, he may put over more than
purely technical ideas. A man who doesn’t use his opportunities right
won’t get very far in warfare though he wears the gold braid of an
admiral.”
The night had closed in dark as pitch, and the wind swept on
furiously from the stormy sky. Evans steered his little boat over the
waves, guided by the familiar lights in the distance. To the south the
lights of a tow of barges and a coasting schooner, threading the ship
channel through the shoals, grew dimmer and finally were lost in the
murk.
The conversation drifted on to the question of the use of scientists
in war. Evans summed up his views on this point as follows:
 “Make free use of scientists, but use them with skill. A scientist in
war, if he hasn’t engineering sense as well as scientific spirit, is apt
to be like a drunken man trying to make a speech; his mind is so
discursive he can never get to the point. In peace the best measure
of a scientist’s merit is the patience with which he can seek truth for
its own sake, and his indifference to the application of his work to
tangible results. In war this point of view is out of season; the man’s
value then depends on his impatience to apply all he knows to
getting results of the most tangible kind. At the dinner hour we sit
down to eat our food and digest it; the dinner hour over, eating
becomes unseasonable, and we must absorb what we have eaten
and utilize it in the performance of the day’s work.
“In the war with Germany a vast amount of time was wasted by
scientists who couldn’t adapt their points of view to war-time
conditions. They insisted on laying their foundations with the same
painstaking thoroughness and patience with which they would pave
the way to a new theory of light; they kept before them the same
ideal of perfection which the highest standards of peace-time
scholarship demand. The Armistice found them still laying their
foundations, and their efforts all wasted, as far as winning the war
was concerned. Of course it pays to keep some fundamental work
going on the chance of the war lasting a good many years, but
there’s such a thing as sense of proportion about it; and that’s what
lots of scientists lack.”
“How is the non-scientific head of a big department to know
whether a line of research promises to bring results in a finite time
or not?” asked Mortimer.
“That’s difficult,” said Evans. “The best thing is to have on hand
some men of large caliber whom you can trust to have engineering
sense as well as scientific vision, and make them keep the others in
the paths of reason.”
Among other things Evans pointed out the great importance of
weather forecasting in naval warfare.
“It doesn’t take much imagination to see that it might come in
handy to know a little beforehand when something like what hit us
to-day is coming. Imagine trying to carry out some kinds of naval
operations during the worst of that squall. Then the direction of the
wind may affect the visibility in different directions, so as to make it
a decisive factor in a naval action.”
“Weather prediction is still pretty much a matter of guesswork,
isn’t it?” asked Mortimer.
“No, there’s a good deal of science to it,” said Evans, “and there’s
more coming to fruition than is generally known. Professor Jeremy is
probably the ablest meteorologist in the world. He has been doing
some wonderful research on the causes of weather changes, and I
believe he’s in a way to reach some very important conclusions
before long. You couldn’t do better than put him in charge of your
Naval Weather Service, with a free hand to do things his own way.
He’d have a sense of proportion, and go at the most practical kind of
research which would in a few months give our navy so much better
knowledge of weather prediction than the enemy as to be a really
important military advantage. Then the trouble would be to make
the admirals appreciate what they had, and use it.”
They had now crossed the open sheet of water between
Monomoy and Point Gammon, and had passed Bishop and Clerk’s
lighthouse a mile to leeward, till it was already receding on the port
quarter. The outline of Point Gammon showed dimly to windward.
Taking a bearing on Hyannisport Light, Evans luffed and trimmed in
the sheets a bit. Soon they were in the lee of Point Gammon where
the water was smoother, and steering north-northwest picked up the
spindle on Great Rock on the weather bow. Passing this they luffed
close on the wind till they sighted the breakwater to leeward just
before they brought the range lights in line. Inside the breakwater,
Evans kept off and steered for the lights in the cottages that line the
harbor shore, while the dark line of the land ahead loomed nearer
and nearer, and its outline grew more distinct. The riding lights of
some of the larger boats at anchor were now quite distinguishable
from the cottage lights beyond. Evans went forward, cleared the
anchor, and hauled down the jib, then returning to the wheel he
picked his way in past some of the larger vessels to a snug
anchorage near a group of Cape Cod catboats. The gale was still
blowing hard and showed no signs of moderating, so he let go both
anchors and gave them a generous allowance of scope. He made all
snug on deck in spite of the darkness, with an alacrity born of long
experience and the most intimate familiarity with every rope and
cleat on his boat; then put up the riding light. With a careful look
around he went aft into the cockpit, saying:
“Well, we’re all snug here. The holding ground’s good, so it can
blow all it’s a mind to, and we shan’t drag. Let’s go below, get out of
these wet oilers, and have something to eat.”
The hour was late for supper—a fact which did not militate
against their appetites. In the cabin there was warmth from the little
galley stove where the potatoes and rice were now done. Evans
opened a tin of canned chicken and stirred the contents into the
rice.
“Supper’s ready,” he said, putting some plates and bread on the
table. “This chicken-rice mixture is about the easiest thing to get
ready on a rough day, and it makes a pretty good meal in itself.”
They fell to like a pair of wolves, and Mortimer declared he had
never found a meal more to his liking.
After supper Evans tumbled the débris into a big dishpan and
began a hasty but effective dish-washing.
“Can I help?” asked Mortimer.
“You can wipe,” answered Evans, and tossed him a dish towel.
Before turning in, Evans took another look at the weather which
still showed no signs of changing, and then the tired men took to
their bunks, and darkness reigned in the little cabin except for a
glimmer from the riding light through a porthole forward.
Tired as he was, it was some time before Mortimer fell asleep.
The excitement of the squall and the novelty of his surroundings
kept him awake, listening to the wind shrieking in the rigging. But
the gentle rocking of the boat in her sheltered anchorage lulled him
off at last to a deep sleep.
Next morning he waked to hear Evans shaking the ashes out of
the galley stove. The wind had moderated and the sky showed signs
of clearing. After a plunge overboard and a good breakfast, Mortimer
felt better than he had for months. Evans rowed him ashore in his
dinghy in time to catch the train, and before they parted it was
settled that Evans should go to Washington in a fortnight’s time and
be enrolled as a radio gunner in the navy.
Evans took advantage of the northeast wind which was still
blowing strong to make the run to New Bedford. With a single-
reefed mainsail, for comfort in handling, as he was alone, he made
the run through Wood’s Hole and across Buzzard’s Bay in six hours
or so, and dropped anchor in New Bedford Harbor some time before
sunset. As he sailed across the bay he pondered the problem
confronting his friend.
“It’s strange,” he said to himself, “on what capricious things the
great affairs of the world sometimes depend. But Sam will make
good, even if he does seem to know less about the navy than I do.
He’s able, he’s dead in earnest, and he’s open-minded; damn few
secretaries have been more than that.”
He racked his brains to think how he could help his friend, and in
his mind there grew the framework of a strong organization of
engineering men so mobilized as to place at the disposal of the navy
the efficient use of the best that science could offer.
At New Bedford he arranged to have his boat hauled out for the
winter.
“I don’t expect to put her in commission next summer,” he said to
the man at the shipyard; “you’d better be prepared to store her for a
second winter.”
 CHAPTER III
THE MOBILIZATION
Early in October, about four weeks after Mortimer’s sail around
Cape Cod with Evans, the United States declared war against the
Constantinople Coalition, otherwise known as “The Mediterranean
Powers.”
Like a great conflagration, a new wave of idealism swept over the
land. To every one was offered the opportunity to come forward and
give the best that was in him, and few but accepted it gladly.
Washington became the scene of turmoil. Flocks of people poured
in. The “swivel-chair warrior” reappeared in all his glory, and the
“efficiency expert” added the finishing touch to the orgy of
organization and reorganization in which the War Department
became engulfed.
In the Navy Department a comparative quiet reigned; the
atmosphere was almost that of an efficiently organized and smoothly
running business. Until two or three days before the declaration of
war Secretary Mortimer was daily in conference for an hour or more
with a certain civilian, but so large was the department and so many
were the new faces that no one noticed him to be the same
individual as the warrant officer, Radio Gunner Evans, who, the day
before war was declared, was assigned to duty in the Radio Division
of the Bureau of Engineering. Here Evans was given a room to
himself. On his desk were two telephones, one connected with the
department exchange, the other with the Secretary’s room by a
special wire. Evans had himself completed the laying of these wires
into his own room and made the terminal connection with the
telephone on his desk. No one but he and Mortimer knew where this
line led.
 Nominally Evans’s duty was the direction and supervision of a
group of civilian experts engaged in designing new radio apparatus
for installation on ships and shore stations. He was also frequently
seen at the office of the Director of Naval Communications.
It behooves the personnel of this office to coöperate cordially with
the personnel of the Bureau of Engineering, since the latter makes
the apparatus for the former to use, though some people don’t
understand this fact. In general, the personnel of the D.N.C. office
did not know why this warrant officer should appear from time to
time, and some said, “Who’s this guy, anyway, and what’s he doing
round here?”
To which query the answer was, as like as not, “Dunno; maybe
he’s using this office as an alibi for dodging his work where he
belongs.”
Before a state of war had existed two days, letters had been
received from Mortimer by half a dozen of the best radio engineers
in the country and a number of eminent investigators in various
fields of physical science, asking them to come to Washington to
confer with him. Within a week nearly all of these men had come,
and a comprehensive plan had been laid for the coöperative work
whereby their brains could be utilized to the best advantage of the
navy. At these conferences Commander Rich, head of the Radio
Division of the Bureau of Engineering, was present, and the
impression which he made on the scientists for his rapid grasp of
what was essential in the great problem before them was such that
more than one took occasion to congratulate Mortimer on having
such a man in his organization, especially on having him in charge of
so important a branch of the service as radio. About this time, also,
Professor Jeremy, with rank of lieutenant-commander, was placed in
charge of the naval weather service, and with a group of able young
assistants began to attack his problem with energy and resource.
The public mind turned rather to the army than to the navy; to
most people entry into the war meant the sending of troops to
reinforce the armies of Northern Europe in the line of trenches
stretching across the continent; the thought of the happenings on
the sea scarcely figured in their minds. The popular hue and cry
was, “Join the Army.” Congress began agitating the question of
conscription for the army. But the navy needed enormous additions
to its personnel.
Mortimer paid a visit to the Bureau of Engineering and, after
discussing progress with the Bureau Chief and Commander Rich, he
slipped into Evans’s room to discuss matters with him.
“It looks as if this conscription business might fill up the army and
leave the navy high and dry,” he said. “I don’t think Congress
understands that the main task is up to the navy, and we’ve got to
have men to do it.”
“People don’t understand that, as a rule,” answered Evans. “They
look at the battle-line across Europe, and think that’s the war. They
don’t understand that the war can be carried on only by means of
certain commodities some of which can be produced only in the
Western Hemisphere; that the vast resources of South America are
of vital importance to whichever side controls them; that the control
of the sea has thus far given the enemy access to these resources
and denied it to our allies; and that the one way to checkmate them
is to secure complete control of the seas for ourselves. Welcome as
our army would be to reinforce those of Northern Europe, even if we
got it safely across, it could do nothing decisive against the present
defensive methods in use along the enemy’s line. No, the game is up
to us; you’re dead right, we’ve got to have our share of the men.”
“I believe the President could do something about it by executive
action,” said Mortimer. “But I’m not sure if he’s quite alive to the
importance of the navy himself. Military affairs are not his long suit.
If I urge on him the importance of it, the danger is that, unless I can
give him convincing reasons, he may assume that it’s just the usual
thing—each man wants his own particular show to be the biggest. I
want to get the essential points down in convincing and
unanswerable form, and I’d like to have you help me prepare the
case.”
Evans then enumerated the salient points, indicating wherein the
problem devolved upon the navy, while Mortimer questioned him
and took notes. Evans showed how, through the progress of science
and invention during the last twenty years, new methods had
become available in warfare, and how the devilish cunning of the
Constantinople plotters had utilized these and had taken advantage
of their maritime control of the Mediterranean to establish a
powerful grip on the south of France and make their defenses
virtually impregnable, new inventions in offensive warfare having
been more than countered by new methods of defense. He then
enumerated the raw materials essential to maintaining the intricate
structure of their military system and showed how a large
percentage of these could be got only from the tropical regions of
the Western Hemisphere—South America, Central America, and the
West Indies. During the summer, when they held undisputed control
of the Atlantic, the enemy had been transporting enormous stores of
those things which they most needed across from Brazil. Now that
the American Navy had entered the field to dispute the control of the
Atlantic, it became a question of naval power which side should keep
its own source of supplies open and cut off that of the opponents.
The enemy now had control of Portugal, the Azores, Madeira,
Teneriffe, and the Cape Verde Islands, and, with submarine and
seaplane bases at Lisbon and the islands, they were continuing to
harass the shipping in the North Atlantic in defiance of international
law. Furthermore, under protection from these bases they could
maintain an almost uninterrupted flow of commerce with South
America, their ships passing close to the African coast where
American surface craft could not safely attack them.
During their conversation Evans revealed a knowledge of raw
materials, their places of origin and their uses, at which Mortimer
was amazed.
“I don’t see how you ever learned and remembered all these
facts,” he said.
“I forget lots of things I hear,” answered Evans, “but these facts
are so relevant to the crisis at hand that I had good reason to
remember them. After all, the facts are open to any one; it’s just a
matter of taking the trouble to put them together and see what they
mean.”
In discussing the submarine situation, Evans urged the
importance of getting possession of the Azores as soon as possible.
He believed that a blow struck with the entire naval strength
available would encounter no very serious opposition from the
enemy.
“My guess is that, much as they want to keep the Azores, they are
so much keener about keeping their navy intact and holding their
control of the Mediterranean that they wouldn’t risk their fleet in a
major naval action for the sake of the islands. Of course, we must
first effect a consolidation of our fleet with what’s left of the British
and French navies, in order to have the maximum strength
available.”
“That’s one of the first things we’ve got to get after,” said
Mortimer. “Well, first of all there’s this matter of personnel to start
right, and I must be about it. Many thanks for these points you’ve
given me; they’ll come in handy.” With that he left the room.
The next day Evans was called by Mortimer on the telephone
connected directly with the Secretary’s room. The President had
listened attentively to his recital of cogent facts and had been much
impressed. He was almost certain the draft bill would go through,
and had virtually assured Mortimer that the navy would not suffer in
the choice of men.
Not many days passed before Evans and Mortimer were again
closeted together discussing the coördination of naval effort. The
British Navy was still able, in spite of the disaster, to furnish an
appreciable addition to the force, and, above all, to furnish the
wisdom and indomitable spirit bred of centuries of maritime
greatness. Coöperation with it was now in Mortimer’s mind as a
foremost consideration. To this end he was about to dispatch a
commission of liaison officers to London. On this occasion Evans
emphasized especially the need of a well-organized intelligence
service with agents permeating the enemy’s country.
 “At sea it is universally admitted that by virtue of our great
preponderance of available power, we must take command,” said
Evans. “But in the matter of intelligence service there is none on
earth that can touch the British, and I believe we had better play
that game under their lead. Their organization is marvelous, and the
best we can do is to fit our machinery to theirs.
“You know, I think there’s something in the temperament of a
certain type of Englishman that fits him extraordinarily well for the
hazardous game of secret service in enemy country. It’s his faculty
of keeping his thoughts and feelings to himself, his impenetrable
exterior, together with his coolness in danger.”
“Haven’t we plenty of men with those same faculties?” Mortimer
asked.
“It’s rare to find them so well developed in an American. Then,
too, there’s a thoroughness in the education of the British scholar
that helps him grasp new and difficult problems. What I’m driving at
is this:—there ought to be some one in Constantinople who is not
only a damn clever spy, but who also understands what you can do
with radio.”
“You’re trying to combine too much in one man,” said Mortimer.
“You don’t want to have your secret agent for intelligence bother his
head with technical stuff like radio; he should rely on others for
that.”
“Of course he should, as far as handling the apparatus is
concerned. But he must grasp the basic principles, so that he’ll
understand the kind of thing modern apparatus will do for him.
“Both in regard to secret service and to coördination in general,
we must get together with the British communication experts and
come to an understanding about codes and apparatus. Science has
given us such a wealth of new methods in radio engineering that
much depends on a clear understanding of what your apparatus will
do. The British have developed it along their lines, and we along
ours. There should be consultation to determine the best way of
standardizing procedure in the fleet, and still more important at the
moment is to consult with them as to how recent developments in
both countries may be made to help the business of communicating
with our spies.”
“I wonder if it wouldn’t be a good plan for you to go with the
commission we are sending to England, and confer with their radio
men on the matter of apparatus and communication methods in
general,” said Mortimer.
“I believe it would,” answered Evans. “I should like to discuss
those points with them, and I should like particularly to see some
man in their intelligence service who understands radio methods, or
at least their possibilities, and who could get into Constantinople;
together we could work out codes and ciphers and other matters of
procedure that would facilitate the transmission of intelligence to us
from that interesting spot.”
“All right; I’ll send you along with the bunch,” said Mortimer. “I
think the party will be ready to go in four or five days.”
“I’ve been thinking,” said Evans, still following his previous train of
thought, “that an old friend of mine in England would be the ideal
person for that job; I mean, to undertake to keep us posted from
enemy headquarters. He’s an archaeologist by profession, and the
most versatile man I know. He has spent a lot of time in Greece and
Asia Minor, knows Constantinople and the Balkans like a book; he’s a
wonderful linguist, and the best actor you ever saw. His name is
Heringham. I used to play chess with him when I was studying in
the Cavendish in Cambridge, and I never knew a man who could fool
you more adroitly as to his real plan of campaign. He used to take
every kind of part in student theatricals, from a Buddhist to a
buffoon, and to realize that the same man did them all would tax
your powers of belief to the limit. I don’t think he knows much radio,
but he has a good scientific foundation, and he’s so confoundedly
clever that he’d learn what he needed for that job in no time. I’d
give a lot to have him in Constantinople and to have had a chance to
plan things a bit with him first.”
“What’s he doing now?” asked Mortimer.
“Nothing important,” was the answer. “I got a letter from him
saying he offered his services to the army, and was rejected because
of his age and a slight defect in his eyes; he’s forty-one or forty-two.
He’s still living at his rooms in Trinity, trying to make himself useful
at odd jobs.”
“Do you suppose there’s any way of getting your wish realized?”
“I don’t know. I’d like to get over there and see what can be
done.”
“I’ll give you letters to any one you want,” said Mortimer.
“I think I’d better keep away from the mighty men at the top, and
have my business talks with their technical radio men. Send over
Barton who is right-hand man to the Chief of Naval Intelligence, and
the real brains of the Bureau, and tell him how much you want me
to dip into his line of business; he’s no red-tape artist. Between us
we may find a way to the sort of collaboration we want.”
A few days later a scout cruiser capable of forty knots slipped out
of the Navy Yard at Portsmouth, New Hampshire, and headed south,
passing between the Isles of Shoals and Cape Ann; but when well
out of sight of land she changed her course to east, and sped rapidly
out to sea, making several knots better than her economical cruising
speed. On board of her was a group of liaison officers of high rank.
Commander Barton, of the Bureau of Naval Intelligence, and a
number of experts on naval specialties—ordnance, aircraft, and the
like, including Evans and a certain Lieutenant Brown representing
the Director of Naval Communications.
The ocean passage lasted four days. Evans spent much of his
time in the radio room at the congenial pastime of discussing
problems with the chief radio electrician and his operators, and
helping them tinker with apparatus. A radio chief likes to discuss his
set with any one who has a genuine interest, and it wasn’t long
before the chief and all the operators were picking up innumerable
hints on the newest engineering developments. The radio officer of
the ship was an ensign named Lindsay, a youngster just out of
Annapolis with a sunny disposition and a wholesome boyishness
about him that won Evans’s heart. He was also free from the conceit
of rank which constrains some ensigns to treat a warrant officer with
a forced superiority. He had little knowledge of radio, and, as is
usually the case, relied in technical matters on the chief radio
electrician. He soon found in Evans one from whom he could learn
what he needed to know of radio methods, without the sense of
losing prestige which some officers feel to be associated with
acquiring information from one of subordinate rank. Before the
voyage was over, Lindsay had acquired a new outlook on the
significance of communications and the possibilities which lay in the
various methods a ship may use for picking up and transmitting
information concerning the enemy, such as hydrophones, radio
direction-finders, amplifiers, selective devices to avoid interference,
and secret methods of signaling. With this enlarged vision there was
born in him a new enthusiasm for his task.
On a cold, gray autumn day the cruiser passed the Lizard,
rounded Rame Head and Penlee Point, and dropped anchor in
Plymouth Sound. In another hour the party was speeding through
the mellow green hills of Devonshire on its way to London. The next
day found Evans at the great National Physical Laboratory at
Teddington where some of the best brains in the world were
engaged in coördinated research to solve the many problems of
physical science and technology which the peril of the Empire had
rendered vital.
More than one physicist whom he had known years before at the
Cavendish Laboratory did he now find serving here as a department
head. One of these, knowing his work in the field of pure science,
expressed surprise at seeing him in a rank below that of
sublieutenant.
“You shouldn’t be wasting yourself as a gunner,” he said; “you
ought to be directing research.”
“Well,” answered Evans, “I manage to get a shot at research now
and then, and the kind of duty that comes my way on this job suits
me pretty well, on the whole.”
Before he had been in London a day, Evans had arranged to see
his friend Heringham in Cambridge. He took an afternoon train
thither, and found dusk gathering in the narrow streets of the
ancient town. At the sight of familiar landmarks, shops, and
churches, memories came flooding over him of the happy winter
spent there in his youth, learning from the world’s greatest masters
of pure science. He recalled the profound debt he owed to the
Cavendish for its part in the moulding of his career, and with the
thought a deep gratitude stirred within him. Crossing the market-
place, he came to the old College buildings, the beauty and dignity
of their architecture never more impressive than now in the twilight.
At last he came to the venerable main gate of Trinity and entered
the Great Court, hallowed by the memory of Newton, Tennyson, and
a host of other men of genius, through centuries the greatest
fountain-head of high scholarship and learning in Anglo-Saxon
civilization. He stopped and looked about him, and the realization of
all that this place stood for came over him as it never had before.
Here in these walls of weather-stained and crumbling stone was the
cradle of that intellectual and spiritual growth which constituted the
real world in which he lived and for which he would gladly die. There
arose before his mind a picture of the calculating and mercenary
group in Constantinople, and the cynical and iconoclastic spirit in
which they would wreck the shrines of Western civilization and
learning should they win the fight. He set his teeth and crossed the
court to the stairway leading to Heringham’s room.
He knocked at the door and found his friend sitting by a small coal
fire, smoking his pipe and reading the noncommittal news in the
daily paper. Seated together by the fire, these two congenial souls
were soon chatting comfortably on the basis of a natural and
inalienable understanding which existed between them. Evans
found, as he expected, that Heringham possessed an extraordinary
knowledge of the leading characters in the Constantinople
conspiracy and how matters stood among them.
“You ought to be using this knowledge in some way,” said Evans.
“How can I?” asked Heringham. “The army rejected me, and here
I am.”
“Could you smuggle yourself into Constantinople without
disturbing the equanimity of these devils you’ve been telling me
about?” said Evans.
 Heringham sucked hard at his pipe and stared at the fire.
“I don’t know that game,” he said at last. “I imagine it takes
rather a lot of experience.”
“I can’t think of any one who would learn it quicker than you, and
you’ve got a big head start in your knowledge of the country and the
people you would have to deal with,” said Evans.
Again Heringham thought awhile in silence. “I dare say I could get
there if I had to,” he said musingly, “but then, I don’t see much
prospect of their asking me to.”
“Oh, well,” said Evans, “you never know what may turn up next.”
“What’s up?” said Heringham. “Have you got strings on the dear
old things in the War Office that you’re going to pull?”
“Not that I know of,” said Evans. “But I’ll tell you a little of our
situation. Mortimer, our Secretary of the Navy, happens to be an old
pal of mine; classmates we were, in school and college. He’s a
trump, dead in earnest and a splendid organizer. But his life-work
has been law and politics, and when this job fell on his shoulders he
knew no more of naval affairs than I know of Sanskrit. In spite of
this handicap he’s making good, but he needs a good deal of
technical help, and I’m trying to contribute what I can in the field of
communications.”
He went on to explain the nature of his present mission to
England, both as to consultation in the matter of radio apparatus in
general, and in particular as to effecting coöperation with the British
Intelligence Service for the transmission of information by radio to
the Allied Navies.
“Barton, of our Intelligence Bureau, is over here,” he said, “and he
will have access to the men who control things in your Intelligence
Service. He is the only one in our mission who knows that I’m not
concerned simply with radio apparatus. I can talk to him, and he’ll
listen.”
“Well, old chap,” said Heringham, “I’m at your disposal or his, to
stick my head in the lion’s mouth if it will do any good. Lord knows
I’ve been hating myself to death here, doing an old woman’s odd
jobs when I should be fighting. By Jove, there’s eight o’clock
striking; come over to Hall and we’ll have some dinner.”
The slow tolling of the College bell came ringing across the court.
Heringham slipped on his academic gown and led the way out into
the Great Court where they joined the converging streams of dons
crossing to the famous Hall where hang the portraits of more great
men, past members of Trinity College, than can be found in any
similar place the world over. At dinner Evans sat between Heringham
and an elderly professor of Greek, with a distinguished face and a
white beard. With this scholar he soon became engaged in a
conversation of absorbing interest, which furnished him useful scraps
of information bearing on the present situation in the Mediterranean,
based on the old man’s intimate knowledge of the Greece of an
earlier day.
After dinner, the dons migrated in procession to the Combination
Room where Evans sat next the Master of Trinity, an eminent
mathematician, who plied him eagerly with questions about the
American Navy, as they sipped their port and coffee. He, at least,
was keenly aware that on this group of ships, and the controlling
mind behind it, rested the future of all.
Returning at length to Heringham’s room, they poked the
smouldering coals into flame and returned to their talk of the
European situation, and of Heringham’s availability for playing the
part which had been suggested for him. Evans questioned him
closely as to his knowledge of physics. Of radio he knew nothing in
detail, but his knowledge of fundamental principles was good. Their
talk engrossed them the best part of the evening.
Heringham then went with him to the gate to say the ‘open
sesame’ whereby the night porter was induced to let him out into
Trinity Street, dark, narrow, and deserted save for a lone man who
passed on the opposite sidewalk as Evans came out and started for
his hotel.
Returning next day to London, Evans sought Commander Barton
and drew for him a picture of Heringham’s qualifications which filled
that officer with enthusiasm for the plan of getting him impressed
into service. He had already been in conference with several of the
head men in the British Intelligence Service and was satisfied that
there was a distinct need for just such a person in the heart of the
enemy country. A number of able agents were already there, but
they had gone in before the American Navy had entered the field
and become the most important force for them to collaborate with;
moreover, they had not at their disposal the radio experts who would
be needed to find means of transmitting intelligence to sea. Barton,
therefore, took very kindly to the idea of sending in a man like
Heringham who could previously prepare a concerted plan of action
and a system of codes with representatives of the American Navy,
and who could then proceed, together with an experienced operator,
to penetrate to enemy headquarters there to direct the leakage of
information through whatever channel his ingenuity could discover
or devise.
Three days later, Heringham received an urgent request from a
certain high official to come at once to London for an interview.
Proceeding to the street and number mentioned, he was taken in a
taxicab to another part of the city where he was ushered through
innumerable doors and corridors to a small room where an officer
with penetrating eyes questioned him minutely about his life and
activities, and especially his experience in the Near East. After a
searching examination, this officer finally revealed his own status in
the British Intelligence Service and asked Heringham if he would be
willing to undertake secret service in enemy country, and the upshot
of it was that then and there it was arranged that he should be sent
on the hazardous and responsible mission.
Busy days followed in which Heringham, besides receiving
instruction as to his duties and methods of procedure from those
above him, was also in frequent conference with Evans and Barton,
planning their general course of action and devising codes. They
anticipated that their main reliance would be placed on smuggling
operators into the crews of enemy transmitting stations and having
them superimpose messages in secret code on the regular traffic of
the stations. Therefore, two experienced radio operators were also
selected and educated in the lore of spies that they might go to
Constantinople and there act as technical advisers to Heringham.
In these conferences Evans came to realize how sharply his own
point of view, as a physicist, differed from that of Barton, the trained
Intelligence officer. Problems which he saw from a purely intellectual
point of view took on a wholly new aspect when Barton’s ready and
practical wits had been focused on them. Evans felt his own
shortcomings in this strange world of secret service, a world in which
deliberate scientific reasoning was replaced by intuition, dissembling,
and juggling with the caprice of human nature. He felt as awkward
as a country bumpkin in the midst of a group of experts at flashing
repartee.
In addition to these conferences, Evans devoted all the spare time
he could to instructing Heringham in the essentials of radio science
and engineering, that he should understand more fully what kind of
opportunities might present themselves for juggling with the radio
business of the enemy.
Advices were sent through the mysterious channels best known to
those who practice the art of secret service, to the agents already in
Constantinople, apprising them of the plan to send Heringham to
join them; in return, valuable suggestions were received from them
concerning conditions in enemy country.
The adventurous nature of Heringham’s mission took such a hold
on Evans’s imagination that he became absorbed in the planning of
it with the eagerness of a boy building some new castle in the air. It
was only with effort that he turned his attention to what was
nominally his own mission, the consultation with British radio experts
on technical matters. He managed, nevertheless, to confer with the
best men in this field in England, and to compare notes with them
on recent progress. He learned from them what improvements in
British apparatus could, without lost motion, be advantageously
incorporated into American gear, and arrived at an understanding
with them on the standardization of apparatus wherever this was
desirable.
 One night, after a late conference with Heringham and Barton,
Evans was walking back to his hotel in the vicinity of Trafalgar
Square, when he met Lindsay. In the darkened street they might not
have recognized each other had they not met close to one of the
dim, blue street lights. It was the first time they had met since their
arrival in England, Lindsay only just having come to London for a
few days of leave.
“Hullo,” he said to Evans. “Are you having a time doing up old
London?”
“I’m having a time, all right; but I don’t know that it’s the kind of
time you mean.”
“Well, whatever kind of time it is, don’t overdo it.”
As he spoke, Lindsay’s eye followed a figure on the other side of
the street, walking in the same direction that Evans had been going
when they met. Evans, following his glance, saw a man with a
businesslike step walking by. The man turned down the first side
street, and as he turned under the street light at the corner, Evans
caught a glimpse of a sallow face. When the sound of his footsteps
had died away, Lindsay said in a manner that seemed more than
half-joking:
“It looks to me as if you were being shadowed; that man stopped
when you stopped, then crossed the street. What are you up to,
anyway?”
“I don’t believe any one wants to bother about shadowing me,”
said Evans.
“You’d better let me go along and look after you, or some fellow
will get you with a sandbag while you’re up in the clouds thinking
about wave lengths or frequencies or something.”
“Come along,” said Evans, “I’ll be glad enough to have you.”
“I guess I’d better mind my own business,” said Lindsay; “but
watch your step, old man.”
They parted, and Evans told himself that, of course, Lindsay was
joking. Yet, as he walked on through the lonely streets, he wished
his young friend was still with him. Just before he reached his hotel,
he heard a strangely familiar tread on the pavement a long way
behind him. Looking round as he turned to enter the hotel, he saw
dimly in the darkness a block away the form of a man; and though
obviously too far off to warrant any valid judgment, Evans couldn’t
escape the feeling that it was the same man that he and Lindsay
had just noticed. At the same moment there flashed into his mind an
uncomfortable feeling that it was the same man he had seen on
Trinity Street in Cambridge when he was saying good-night to
Heringham after their first talk. Evans laughed at himself for letting
the darkness and the strange blue street lights make him wax
superstitious. Of course it was all a trick of imagination; no one
would waste time shadowing him—a mere warrant officer. Yet it was
with a keen sense of relief that he found himself safe inside his room
at the hotel.
Very soon after the commission of liaison officers arrived in
London, they were assured by the British authorities in no uncertain
terms that the navy was the keystone of everything. A message was
cabled to Washington which swept away all vestiges of doubt in the
President’s mind that the navy must come first, and which materially
facilitated his adoption of the necessary action giving the navy first
claim on the draft, which had now passed Congress.
After three weeks of strenuous activity on the part of the entire
commission preparing plans for the consolidation of the naval forces,
they embarked in their scout cruiser at the great Devonport
dockyard where the noise of hammer and riveter, the great heaps of
steel wreckage from repaired ships, and the general atmosphere of
miscellaneous naval activities betokened its great significance as a
naval base. On the high tide the long, slender cruiser glided quietly
out through the narrow channel between Stonehouse and Cremyl,
and in the gathering darkness left Plymouth Sound for the open sea.
Four days later the party landed in New York, and proceeded without
delay to Washington.
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