Scribd
Upload
2 views

Probability

The document provides an overview of probability concepts, including definitions, formulas, and examples for calculating probabilities in various scenarios such as coin tosses, dice rolls, and card draws. It covers both independent and dependent events, as well as the application of the addition and multiplication theorems. Additionally, it discusses Bayes' theorem and Bernoulli's theorem for more complex probability problems.

Uploaded by

ARSH SINHA
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
2 views

Probability

The document provides an overview of probability concepts, including definitions, formulas, and examples for calculating probabilities in various scenarios such as coin tosses, dice rolls, and card draws. It covers both independent and dependent events, as well as the application of the addition and multiplication theorems. Additionally, it discusses Bayes' theorem and Bernoulli's theorem for more complex probability problems.

Uploaded by

ARSH SINHA
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 21

Probability

Probability
Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring
Probability
EPP

Experiment Possibility/Cases Probability


(Coin toss (2)
( dice (6))
Probability
Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠


𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Probabilities range from 0 to 1


If something has a probability of 0 then it is impossible and if
something has a probability of 1 the it is certain.
1
𝑃(𝐻) =
2

What is the probability of getting even number in the throw of unbiased dice

E (dice)
P (1,2,3,4,5,6)
P (2, 4, 6)

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠


𝑃 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

3
=
6
Q2: A bag contains 5 black and 10 white balls. What is the probability of
drawing
a) Black ball
b) White ball

E Drawing a ball
P 5B+10W, total = 15
P black/white

5 10
𝑃 𝐵 = ,𝑃 𝑊 =
15 15
Cards – 52

A, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, J, Q, K - 13

13 * 4 = 52

Shape --- Heart (13), Diamond (13), Club (13), Spade (13)

Color --- Red (Heart and Diamond) and Black (Club and Spade)

Face card – J, Q, and K (3*4)


What is the probability of getting a king in a draw from a pack of cards?

E Drawing a card
P Possibility 52, king 4
P Probability

4
𝑃 𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
52

Find the probability of drawing a face card in a single random draw from a
well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
12
𝑃 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑑 =
52
Addition Theorem (or)
a. Mutually exclusive (Not common, e.g., king, queen)
b. Non Mutually exclusive (Common, e.g. black card, ace)

Question: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the prob. Of


king or queen.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)


𝑃 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑟 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 = 𝑃 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 + 𝑃 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛
4 4
= +
52 52
A perfect dice is tossed. What is the probability of throwing 3 or 5?

𝑃 3 𝑜𝑟 5 = 𝑃 3 + 𝑃 5

1 1
= +
6 6
A bag contains balls numbered from 1 to 30. One ball is drawn at random. Find
the prob. that the number of ball is a multiplication of 5 or 6.

A – no. is multiple of 5 (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30)


B - no. is multiple of 6 (6, 12, 18, 24, 30)

Not mutually exclusive


𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃 𝐴𝐵
6 5 1
= + −
30 30 30
Multiplication Theorem
a. Independent
b. Dependent

Question Getting head in all three toss.


P(E1) = ½ , P(E2) = ½ , P(E) = ½

P(Head in all three toss) = ½* ½ * ½ = 1/8


From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random one after the
another with replacement. What is the probability that both cards are
king?

E two cards are drawn


P P(E1) – prob. Of king in first case = 4/52
P(E2) – prob. Of king in second case = 4/52

P(E) = prob. Of getting king in both cases = 4/52 * 4/52 = 1/169


A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random
one after the other with replacement. Find the probability that both the
balls drawn are black

E Ball drawn

P(E1) = black ball in 1st case = 3/8


P(E2) = black ball in 2nd case = 3/8

P(E) = P(E1) * P(E2) = 3/8 * 3/8 = 9/64


A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B, C whose chances of
solving it are ½, 1/3, and ¼. What is the probability that the problem will
be solved.

P(not solved) = P(not A) * P(not B) * P(not C)


= P(1-1/2) * P(1-1/3)*P(1-1/4) = ¼

P(solved) = 1-1/4 = 3/4


Multiplication (Dependent, Conditional Probability)

Independent P(AB) = P(A) * P(B)


Dependent P(AB) = P(A) * P(B/A)
P(ABC) = P(A) * P(B/A) * P(C/AB)
A bag contains 10 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random
one after the other without replacement. Find the probability that both
balls drawn are black.

P(AB) = P(A) * P(B/A)


= 5/15 * 4/14 = 2/21

Find the prob. of drawing a king, a queen, and jack in that order from a
pack of 52 cards in three consecutive drawn not being replaced.

P(ABC) = P(A)*P(B/A)*P(C/AB)
= 4/52 * 4/51 * 4/50
Bayes’ theorem

P(B) ∗ P(W/B)
𝑃(𝐵/𝑊) =
𝑊 𝑊
𝑃 𝐴 ∗𝑃 +𝑃 𝐵 ∗𝑃
𝐴 𝐵
A factory has two machines, machine I produces 30% of the items of
output and machine II produces 70% of the items. Further 5% of the items
produced by the machine I were defective and only 1% produced by
machine II were defective. If the defective items is drawn at random, what
is the probability that it was produced by machine I.

A – 30%, 5% D
B – 70% 1% D
𝐴 P(A) ∗ P(D/A)
𝑃 =
𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑃 𝐴 ∗𝑃 +𝑃 𝐵 ∗𝑃
𝐴 𝐵

P(30/100) ∗ P(5/100)
𝑃(𝐴/𝐷) =
5 1
𝑃 30/100 ∗ 𝑃 + 𝑃 70/100 ∗ 𝑃
100 100
Bernoulli’s theorem

𝑃 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟
6 coin toss
Prob. 4 head

n=6
r = 4 head , what we want
p prob. Of getting head ½
q = 1 – p = 1-1/2 = 1/2
Eight coins are tossed simultaneously . Find the chances of obtaining
exactly 6 heads.

𝑃 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟

n=8
r=6
p = P(getting head) = ½
q = P(not getting head) 1-1/2 = ½

𝑃 𝑟 = 8𝐶6 (1/2)6 (1/2)8−6 = 7/64

You might also like