Investment Management
Investment Management
Security Analysis?
Security analysis refers to analyzing the value of securities like shares and
other instruments to assess the business’s total value, which will be useful
for investors to make decisions. There are three methods to analyze the
value of securities – fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis
2.Technical Analysis
.
Risk Return
Investors sacrifice current consumption in order to be able to consume
more in the future. The required rate of return therefore depends on the
time for which funds are locked up, the expected rate of inflation during
that period and risk involved. The real risk-free rate of return can be
considered as the compensation for time. Since inflation erodes the future
purchasing power of money, the return has to be higher to account for
expected inflation. Investors are also concerned with the safety of their
returns, so more risky investments have to offer higher returns to attract
investors. The expected return on any asset depends on the initial outlay
and timing of expected cash flows. For debt, the calculation is relatively
simple as cash flows are known and fixed in advance. For equity, we need
to project future expected cash flows i.e., expected dividends and
projected stock price. For both debt and equity, there is a risk that
expected return. There could be fluctuation in expected returns in the form
of delayed or rescheduled payments or not-payments. The estimation of
risk and return is, therefore, a very important part of investments analysis.
Realized return can also be higher than expected return if there are
unexpected favorable events that result in increased annual payments such
as dividends or prices of assets owned.
The absolute and relative returns on assets have varied over the
years. In order to be able to forecast returns, we also need to examine the
factors that influence returns on debt and equity. This includes the impact
of global and country specific economic conditions, the influence of
macroeconomic variables such as inflation and interest rates, oil prices,
and the importance of industry and company specific variables. This
analysis of information related to economic. Industry, and company -
specific data, to arrive at a fair present or future price of a security is
known as fundamental analysis. There are various theories and models
that attempt to explain the complex dynamics of risk and return. The
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) basically asserts that it is not possible
to consistently outperform the market by using historical prices,
fundamental analysis or even insider information. The Capital asset
Pricing Model (CAPM) and the competing arbitrage pricing Theory (APT)
describe how assets should be priced relative to risk. We study these
theories and their implications and see whether they are applicable in the
Indian context. The prices of certain assets such as stocks, commodities
and precious metals fluctuate every day.
The same asset would give higher profit if purchases could be timed
to buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. Technical
analysis claims that a study of past prices and volumes can help forecast
future price movements. Though this is contradictory to the efficient
market hypothesis, these techniques have become very popular and are
reported in leading economic dailies and finance sites
Understanding Risk-Return Tradeoff
The risk-return tradeoff is the trading principle that links high risk
with high reward. The appropriate risk-return tradeoff depends on a
variety of factors including an investor’s risk tolerance, the investor’s
years to retirement and the potential to replace lost funds. Time also plays
an essential role in determining a portfolio with the appropriate levels of
risk and reward. For example, if an investor has the ability to invest in
equities over the long term, that provides the investor with the potential to
recover from the risks of bear markets and participate in bull markets,
while if an investor can only invest in a short time frame, the same
equities have a higher risk proposition.
Investors use the risk-return tradeoff as one of the essential
components of each investment decision, as well as to assess their
portfolios as a whole. At the portfolio level, the risk-return tradeoff can
include assessments of the concentration or the diversity of holdings and
whether the mix presents too much risk or a lower-than-desired potential
for returns.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
1. Real Estate
There are many types of real assets. For example, land, timberland, and
farmland are all real assets, as is intellectual property like artwork. But real
estate is the most common type and the world’s biggest asset class.
2. Commodities
Commodities are also real assets and mostly natural resources, such as
agricultural products, oil, natural gas, and precious and industrial metals.
Commodities are considered a hedge against inflation, as they're not
sensitive to public equity markets. Additionally, the value of commodities
rises and falls with supply and demand—higher demand for commodities
results in higher prices and, therefore, investor profit.
Commodities are hardly new to the investing scene and have been traded
for thousands of years. Amsterdam, Netherlands, and Osaka, Japan may
lay claim to the title of the earliest formal commodities exchange, in the 16th
and 17th centuries, respectively. In the mid-19th century, the Chicago Board
of Trade started commodity futures trading.
3. Collectibles
• Rare wines
• Vintage cars
• Fine art
• Mint-condition toys
• Stamps
• Coins
• Baseball cards
Investing in collectibles means purchasing and maintaining physical items
with the hope the value of the assets will appreciate over time.
These investments may sound more fun and interesting than other types,
but can be risky due to the high costs of acquisition, a lack of dividends or
other income until they're sold, and potential destruction of the assets if not
stored or cared for properly. The key skill required in collectibles investment
is experience; you have to be a true expert to expect any return on your
investment.
4. Structured Products
Structured products are relatively new to the investing landscape, but you’ve
probably heard of them due to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Structured
products like CDO and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) became popular
as the housing market boomed before the crisis. When housing prices
declined, those who had invested in these products suffered extreme
losses.
5. Private Equity
Private debt refers to investments that are not financed by banks (i.e., a
bank loan) or traded on an open market. The “private” part of the term is
important—it refers to the investment instrument itself, rather than the
borrower of the debt, as both public and private companies can borrow via
private debt.
7. Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are investment funds that trade relatively liquid assets and
employ various investing strategies with the goal of earning a high return
on their investment. Hedge fund managers can specialize in a variety of
skills to execute their strategies, such as long-short equity, market neutral,
volatility arbitrage, and quantitative strategies.
3. Rental Properties
Owning rental properties can be a great opportunity for individuals
who have do-it-yourself (DIY) renovation skills and the patience to
manage tenants. However, this strategy does require substantial capital to
finance upfront maintenance costs and to cover vacant months.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, the sales prices of new
homes (a rough indicator for real estate values) consistently increased in
value from the 1960s to 2007, before dipping during the financial
crisis. Subsequently, sales prices resumed their ascent, even surpassing
pre-crisis levels. The long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic on
real estate values remain to be seen.
4. Online Real Estate Platforms
Real estate investing platforms are for those who want to join others in
investing in a bigger commercial or residential deal. The investment is
made via online real estate platforms, which are also known as real estate
crowdfunding. This still requires investing capital, although less than
what's required to purchase properties outright.
Online platforms connect investors who are looking to finance projects
with real estate developers. In some cases, you can diversify your
investments with not much money.
5Liquidity.
the state of owning things of value that can be exchanged for cash.
रोकडीच्या बदल्यात दे ता येतील अशा मौल्यवान वस्तू स्वतःकडे असण्याची स्थथती;
रोकड-सुलभता.
Fundamental Analysis
One of the most famous models ever developed for industry analysis,
famously known as Porter’s 5 Forces, was introduced by Michael Porter in
his 1980 book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing
Industries and Competitors.”
According to Porter, analysis of the five forces gives an accurate
impression of the industry and makes analysis easier. In our Corporate &
Business Strategy course, we cover these five forces and an additional
force — power of complementary good/service providers.
The above image comes from a section of CFI’s Corporate & Business
Strategy Course.
A. Intensity of industry rivalry
This indicates the ease with which new firms can enter the market of a
particular industry. If it is easy to enter an industry, companies face the
constant risk of new competitors. If the entry is difficult, whichever
company enjoys little competitive advantage reaps the benefits for a
longer period. Also, under difficult entry circumstances, companies face a
constant set of competitors.
C. Bargaining power of suppliers
The complete opposite happens when the bargaining power lies with the
customers. If consumers/buyers enjoy market power, they are in a position
to negotiate lower prices, better quality, or additional services and
discounts. This is the case in an industry with more competitors but with a
single buyer constituting a large share of the industry’s sales.
E. Threat of substitute goods/services
The above image comes from a section of CFI’s Corporate & Business
Strategy Course.
To use PEST as a form of industry analysis, an analyst will analyze each
of the 4 components of the model. These components include:
A. Political
Political factors that impact an industry include specific policies and
regulations related to things like taxes, environmental regulation, tariffs,
trade policies, labor laws, ease of doing business, and overall political
stability.
B.Economic
The economic forces that have an impact include inflation, exchange rates
(FX), interest rates, GDP growth rates, conditions in the capital markets
(ability to access capital), etc.
C. Social
The social impact on an industry refers to trends among people and
includes things such as population growth, demographics (age, gender,
etc.), and trends in behavior such as health, fashion, and social
movements.
D.Technological
The technological aspect of PEST analysis incorporates factors such as
advancements and developments that change the way a business operates
and the ways in which people live their lives (e.g., the advent of the
internet).
3 .SWOT Analysis
2.MARKETING/MANAGEMENT REPORTS
• e Marketer
Analysis and reports on Internet companies and companies involved in
digital marketing.
• IBIS World
Market research reports on industries & product categories. Each report
discusses major players (companies) and brands within the category.
3.ARTICLES
• ABI/INFORM Global
Find articles from trade journals and magazines, scholarly journals, and
general interest magazines covering accounting, advertising, business,
company information, industry Information, management, marketing, real
estate, economics, finance, human resources, and international business.
• Business Source Complete
Over 3000 business magazines, trade journals and academic business
journals are included in this database. Business Source complete also has
SWOT reports on companies.
• Emerald Insight
A collection of over 130 journals concentrated in the fields of
management, HR, marketing, operations and training
• Factiva
Type name of company in the “look up Factiva code” section on right.
Click “look up”. Click on company name. Click on “add to search”. Type
“and, or, etc. to search statement and add any additional terms.
• SAGE Business Cases
Over 4,000 case studies on companies, industries, and business issues.
• WARC
Articles & case studies covering a company's advertising and marketing
strategies.
4.SEC FILINGS
Look to the company's annual 10K for an in-depth overview of the
company's finances and activities. In particular, look to:
• Section 1 -- Risk Factors - a discussion of company or industry
operational risks impacting the company.
• Section 7 -- Management Discussion and analysis of corporate activities
• Section 7A -- An overview of market risk - a discussion of financial and
market factors that could have an impact on the company.
• Mergent Online
Click on the "Annual Reports" tab for 10Ks. Click on the "Filings" tab
other SEC filings.
SEC EDGAR Filings Search
• click +More Search Options.
• In the "Document word or phrase" search box, type the term(s) you are
looking for (e.g. mission).
• In the "Company name, ticker, CIK number or individual's name" search
box, begin typing the company name.
• Select the date range.
6.SWOT REPORTS
• SWOT Analysis: A Guide
• Business Insights: Global
Mouse over the "Companies" tab and select "SWOT Reports"
• Business Source Complete
Type company name into search box and change the drop down menu
from "Select a Field (Optional) to CO Company Entity. Scroll down and
look on the right side for "Publication Type" box. Select "SWOT
Analysis". Scroll back up and click the green search button.
• FitchConnect
Industry profiles, country risk analysis, financial market reports, and
company profiles with SWOT analysis. Covers 22 industry sectors in 70
global markets.
7.ANALYST REPORTS
• Bloomberg Professional (Baruch users only)
Search for an individual company (equity) & access analyst reports in the
Bloomberg Research Portal -BRC
• S&P NetAdvantage
Select company and then select either "Equity Research" or "Investment
Research" from the column on the left side of the screen.
Chapter III
Technical Analysis(विश्लेषण ) – Dow Theory –
Breadth (रुंदी)of Market Analysis(विश्लेषण ) –
Stock Analysis( विश्लेषण )
Technical Analysis
1.Trend Lines
2.Support and Resistance Levels
3.Moving Averages
4.Trading Volume
5.Chart Patterns
6.Candlesticks
7.Indicators
1.Trend Lines
Trend lines are lines drawn on a price chart of an asset, just under or over
the asset’s local pivot highs or lows, to indicate that price is following a
particular direction. These lines exist based on the natural placement of
buy or sell orders by market participants, and the raising or lowering of
stop loss levels, or where natural profit-taking may occur.
A trend line typically is required to have multiple touches to be considered
valid, and traders are recommended to watch for a break and close above
or below trend lines, before taking any action. However, trendlines can
also be used to help a trader make a decision even before the trendline has
been breached and is no longer valid.
These trendlines also represent helpful guides for where a trader or
investor may be interested in opening or exiting a position to maximize
gain and minimize risk.
4.Trading Volume
Trading volume is another extremely important tool for traders to use to
determine interest in an asset. Volume typically proceeds price action, and
keen-eyed technical analysts can often spot trend changes in the price of
an asset by watching trading volume.
Trading volume also is used to confirm the validity of a movement.
Oftentimes, an asset will break down or up, but volume doesn’t follow,
suggesting buyers or sellers are hesitant and uncomfortable with taking an
actionable position. However, if the same movement occurs with strong
volume, chances are that much higher for the move to be valid, and not
result in a fakeout.
5.Chart Patterns
One of the most helpful tools a trader can use when performing technical
analysis is to watch for certain patterns to appear on price charts before
taking a position. Using trend lines, technical analysis can draw triangles
and other geometric shapes on price charts.
If an asset trades within one of these patterns, detailed statistical analysis
has been performed that suggests certain patterns will break in one
direction over another, providing traders who spot such patterns an
advantage in the market.
In addition to knowing which way a pattern might break, oftentimes these
patterns can also tip traders off as to the target of the ultimate price
movement that occurs, allowing traders to prepare in advance and ensure
take profit levels are determined ahead of time.
Common bullish price patterns include ascending triangles, falling
wedges, inverse head and shoulders, and more. Bearish price patterns
include descending triangles, rising wedges, double tops, and head and
shoulders patterns.
6.Candlesticks
Japanese candlesticks were introduced to assist technical analysts and
traders in getting tipped off of upcoming price movements. Depending on
how a candlestick opens, closes, and the price action within each candle
can cause a candlestick to close in a particular shape or pattern.
These shapes or patterns of candlesticks can also be used to predict future
price movements. A Doji, for example, is a type of candlestick pattern that
often tells analysts that there is indecision in the market, and a trend
change could soon occur.
While candlesticks aren’t always effective in and of themselves,
combining the analysis of candlesticks with chart patterns, moving
averages, trading volume, and more can have a dramatic effect on
increasing a trader’s success rates.
Fractals
Fractals are repeating patterns that play out on price charts, oftentimes on
increasingly lower timeframes. Fractals add validity and credence to the
idea that markets are cyclical, and each cycle is a direct impact of the
emotional state of traders. These emotions lead to repeating patterns on
price charts, that if spotted well enough in advance, can tip a trader off as
to how the price action may unfold.
7.Indicators
In addition to volume, other helpful indicators have been developed to add
to a trader’s arsenal and offer even more changes to determine future price
movements before they occur.
Commonly used indicators include the Stochastic Oscillator, Bollinger
Bands, the Acceleration Deceleration indicator, and the MACD – the
Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator.
Technical Analysis Examples
Analysis
Alfred Cowles in a study in Econometrica in 1934 showed that trading
based upon the editorial advice would have resulted in earning less than a
buy-and-hold strategy using a well diversified portfolio. Cowles
concluded that a buy-and-hold strategy produced 15.5% annualized
returns from 1902 to 1929 while the Dow theory strategy produced
annualized returns of 12%.
Breadth (रुंदी)of Market Analysis
The breadth of market theory is a technical analysis methodology
that measures the strength of the market according to the number of
stocks that advance or decline in a particular trading day, or how much
upside volume there is relative to downside volume.
There are multiple ways to analyze market breadth, which is a
measure of the robustness of the stock market as a whole. The overall
robustness of the stock market may not be evident by only looking at
major market indexes such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, or Dow Jones
Industrial since these indexes only hold a select group of stocks.
Breadth is typically a measure of how many stocks are advancing
relative to the number declining. Alternatively, it may also
include volume studies, such as volume in rising stocks versus volume in
falling stocks.
Breadth of Market Theory Example
The S&P 500 could be compared with the NYSE A/D line to monitor
underlying strength or weakness. The NYSE A/D line is looking at all
stocks listed on the NYSE, while the S&P 500 is only tracking a select
group of 500 stocks. The NYSE A/D line provides a broader measure of
how most stocks are doing.
Investment Management
A. Risk Objective
1.Specify Measure of Risk
2.Investor’s Willingness
3.Investor’s Ability
B.Return Objective
1.Specify Measure of Return
2.Desired Return
3.Required Return
4.Specific Return Objectives
A. Risk Objective
Risk objectives are the factors associated with both the willingness and the
ability of the investor to take the risk. When the ability to accept all types
of risks and willingness is combined, it is termed risk tolerance. When the
investor is unable and unwilling to take the risk, it indicates risk aversion.
B.Return Objective
The following steps are required to determine the return objective of the
investor:
Investment Constraints
When creating a policy statement, it is important to consider an investor’s
constraints. There are five types of constraints that need to be
considered when creating a policy statement. They are as follows:
1. Liquidity Constraints
2. Time Horizon
3. Tax Concerns
4. Legal and Regulatory
5. Unique Circumstances
Before you decide to invest your earnings in any one of the many
investment plans available in India, it’s essential to understand the reasons
behind it and the investment meaning. While the individual objectives of
investment may vary from one investor to another, the overall goals of
investing money may be any one of the following reasons..
Taking logs and assuming that the Jensen's inequality term is negligible,
we have
log Pt = log M Et (Pt+1)
which implies that the log of stock prices follows a random walk (with a
drift).
Although the concept of an efficient market is similar to the assumption
that stock prices follow:
E[St+1/ St]= St
Weak form Efficiency(कमकुित आकार कार्ाक्षमता)
1.Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a method of measuring data dispersion in regards to
the mean value of the dataset and provides a measurement regarding an
investment’s volatility.
As it relates to investments, the standard deviation measures how much
return on investment is deviating from the expected normal or average
returns.
2.Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe ratio measures performance as adjusted by the associated
risks. This is done by removing the rate of return on a risk-free
investment, such as a U.S. Treasury Bond, from the experienced rate of
return.
This is then divided by the associated investment’s standard deviation and
serves as an indicator of whether an investment's return is due to wise
investing or due to the assumption of excess risk.
3.Alpha
Alpha measures risk relative to the market or a selected benchmark index.
For example, if the S&P 500 has been deemed the benchmark for a
particular fund, the activity of the fund would be compared to that
experienced by the selected index. If the fund outperforms the benchmark,
it is said to have a positive alpha. If the fund falls below the performance
of the benchmark, it is considered to have a negative alpha.
4.Beta
Beta measures the volatility or systemic risk of a fund in comparison to
the market or the selected benchmark index. A beta of one indicates the
fund is expected to move in conjunction with the benchmark. Betas below
one are considered less volatile than the benchmark, while those over one
are considered more volatile than the benchmark.
5.R-Squared
R-Squared measures the percentage of an investment's movement
attributable to movements in its benchmark index. An R-squared value
represents the correlation between the examined investment and its
associated benchmark. For example, an R-squared value of 95 would be
considered to have a high correlation, while an R-squared value of 50 may
be considered low.
Return of Securities(वसक्युररटीजचा परतावा)
As most of us know, return on security investment is basically the amount
of risk reduced, less the amount spent, divided by the amount spent on
controls. Net amount of risk per amount of control is the essential formula for
any "return on" ratio -- return on investment, equity, assets and so on.
Understanding a Return
Prudent(दु रदर्शी) investors know that a precise definition of return is
situational and dependent on the financial data input to measure it. An
omnibus term like profit could mean gross, operating, net, before tax, or
after tax. An omnibus term like investment could mean selected, average,
or total assets.
A holding period return is an investment's return over the time it is
owned by a particular investor. Holding period return may be expressed
nominally or as a percentage. When expressed as a percentage, the term
often used is rate of return (RoR).
For example, the return earned during the periodic interval of a
month is a monthly return and of a year is an annual return. Often, people
are interested in the annual return of an investment, or year-on-year
(YoY) return, which calculates the price change from today to that of the
same date one year ago.
Types Of Return of Securities
1.Real Return
2.Nominal Return
3.Return Ratios
4.Return on Assets (ROA)
5.Return on Investment (ROI)
6.Return on Equity (ROE)
7.Return on Assets (ROA)
1.Real Return
A real rate of return is adjusted for changes in prices due to inflation or
other external factors. This method expresses the nominal rate of return in
real terms, which keeps the purchasing power of a given level of capital
constant over time.
Adjusting the nominal return to compensate for factors such as inflation
allows you to determine how much of your nominal return is real return.
Knowing the real rate of return of an investment is very important before
investing your money. That’s because inflation can reduce the value as
time goes on, just as taxes also chip away at it.
2.Nominal Return
A nominal return is the net profit or loss of an investment expressed in the
amount of dollars (or other applicable currency) before any adjustments
for taxes, fees, dividends, inflation, or any other influence on the amount.
It can be calculated by figuring the change in the value of the investment
over a stated time period plus any distributions minus any outlays.
Distributions received by an investor depend on the type of investment or
venture but may include dividends, interest, rents, rights, benefits, or
other cash-flows received by an investor. Outlays paid by an investor
depend on the type of investment or venture but may include taxes, costs,
fees, or expenditures paid by an investor to acquire, maintain, and sell an
investment
3.Return Ratios
Return ratios are a subset of financial ratios that measure how effectively
an investment is being managed. They help to evaluate if the highest
possible return is being generated on an investment. In general, return
ratios compare the tools available to generate profit, such as the
investment in assets or equity to net income.
Return ratios make this comparison by dividing selected or total assets or
equity into net income. The result is a percentage of return per dollar
invested that can be used to evaluate the strength of the investment
by comparing it to benchmarks like the return ratios of similar
investments, companies, industries, or markets. For instance, return of
capital (ROC) means the recovery of the original investment.
4.Return on Assets (ROA)
Return on assets (ROA) is a profitability ratio calculated as net income
divided by average total assets that measures how much net profit is
generated for each dollar invested in assets. It determines financial
leverage and whether enough is earned from asset use to cover the cost of
capital. Net income divided by average total assets equals ROA.
For example, if net income for the year is $10,000, and total average
assets for the company over the same time period is equal to $100,000,
the ROA is $10,000 divided by $100,000, or 10%.