1

Sampling, Estimation and Hypothesis Test.

0.1 Sampling
”You don’t have to eat the whole ox to know that the meat is tough.” ( Samuel Johnson). That’s the
basic idea of sampling; to gain information about the whole by just examining only a part.

Why sample?
Considering samples from a distribution enables us to obtain information about a population where we
cannot, for reasons of practicality, economy, or both, inspect the whole of the population. For example,
it is impossible to check the complete output of some manufacturing processes. Items such as electric
light bulbs, nuts, bolts, springs, and light emitting diodes (LEDs) are produced in their millions, and
the sheer cost of checking every item as well as the time implications of such a checking process render
it impossible. In addition, testing is sometimes destructive—one would not wish to destroy the whole
production of a given component!

Basic terminology
• Population - the entire group of objects about which information is wanted.
• Unit - any individual member of the population
• Sample - a part of subset of the population used to gain information about the whole.

• Variable - a characteristic of a unit, to be measured for those units in the sample.

Populations and Samples

If we choose n items from a population, we say that the size of the sample is n. If we take many
samples, the means of these samples will themselves have a distribution which may be different from the
population from which the samples were chosen. Much of the practical application of sampling theory
is based on the relationship between the ‘parent’ population from which samples are drawn and the
summary statistics (mean and variance) of the ‘offspring’ population of sample means. Not surprisingly,
in the case of a normal ‘parent’ population, the distribution of the population and the distribution of
the sample means are closely related. What is surprising is that even in the case of a non-normal parent
population, the ‘offspring’ population of sample means is usually (but not always) normally distributed
provided that the samples taken are large enough. In practice, the term ‘large’ is usually taken to mean
about 30 or more. The behavior of the distribution of sample means is based on the following result
from mathematical statistics.

The Central Limit Theorem

In what follows, we shall assume that the members of a sample are chosen at random from a population.
This implies that the members of the sample are independent.

Much of the theory (and hence the practice) of sampling is based on the Central Limit Theorem.
Essentially, the Central Limit Theorem says that if we take large samples of size n with mean X̄ from a
population which has a mean µ and standard deviation σ, then the distribution of sample means X̄ is
normally distributed with mean µ and standard deviation:
σ
√ .
n
That is, the sampling distribution of the mean X̄ follows the distribution:
 
σ
X̄ ∼ N µ, √ .
n

Muindi J.
 2

Strictly speaking, we require σ 2 < ∞, and it is important to note that no claim is made about the
way in which the original distribution behaves, and it need not be normal. This is why the Central Limit
Theorem is so fundamental to statistical practice. One implication is that a random variable which takes
the form of a sum of many components which are random but not necessarily normal will itself be normal
provided that the sum is not dominated by a small number of components. This explains why many
biological variables, such as human heights, are normally distributed.

0.2 Hypothesis Testing

Components of a Hypothesis Test
1. Formulate the hypothesis to be tested.

2. Determine the appropriate test statistic and calculate it using the sample data.
3. Comparison of test statistic to critical region to draw initial conclusions.
4. Calculation of p-value.

5. Conclusion, written in terms of the original problem.

A. Formulate the hypothesis to be tested.

Null vs Alternative Hypotheses
In any hypothesis-testing problem, there are always two competing hypotheses under consideration:

• The status quo (null) hypothesis

• The research (alternative) hypothesis
The objective of hypothesis testing is to decide, based on sample information, if the alternative
hypotheses is actually supported by the data. We usually do new research to challenge the existing
(accepted) beliefs.

Is there strong evidence for the alternative? The burden of proof is placed on those who believe
in the alternative claim. This initially favored claim (H0 ) will not be rejected in favor of the alternative
claim (Ha or H1 ) unless the sample evidence provides significant support for the alternative assertion.
If the sample does not strongly contradict H0 , we will continue to believe in the plausibility of the null
hypothesis.
The two possible conclusions:
• Reject H0 .

• Fail to reject H0 .

Example: Suppose a company is considering putting a new type of coating on bearings that it produces.
The true average wear life with the current coating is known to be 1000 hours. With µ denoting the
true average life for the new coating, the company would not want to make any (costly) changes unless
evidence strongly suggested that µ exceeds 1000.
An appropriate problem formulation would involve testing
H0 : = 1000 against Ha : > 1000.

The conclusion that a change is justified is identified with Ha , and it would take conclusive evidence
to justify rejecting H0 and switching to the new coating.

Muindi J.
 3

The alternative to the null hypothesis H0 : θ = θ0 will look like one of the following three assertions:
1. Ha : θ ̸= θ0
2. Ha : θ > θ0 (in which case the null hypothesis is θ ≤ θ0 )

3. Ha : θ < θ0 (in which case the null hypothesis is θ ≥ θ0 )

• The equality sign is always with the null hypothesis.

• The alternate hypothesis is the claim for which we are seeking statistical proof.

B. Determine the Appropriate Test Statistic and Calculate it Using the Sam-
ple Data.
The test statistic is a function of the sample data that will be used to make a decision about whether
the null hypothesis should be rejected or not.

Example: Company A produces circuit boards, but 10% of them are defective. Company B claims
that they produce fewer defective circuit boards.

H0 : p = .10 versus Ha : p < .10

Our data is a random sample of n = 200 boards from company B. What test procedure (or rule)
could we devise to decide if the null hypothesis should be rejected?

There are an infinite number of possible tests that could be devised, so we have to limit this in some
way or total statistical madness will ensue! Choice of a particular test procedure must be based on the
probability the test will produce incorrect results.

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Type I and Type II Errors
Definition:

• A Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis (H0 ) is rejected, but it is actually true.
• A Type II error occurs when H0 is not rejected, but H0 is actually false.
How do we apply this to the circuit board problem?

Type I Errors
Usually, we specify the largest value of α (significance level) that can be tolerated, and then find a
rejection region with that α.
The resulting value of α is often referred to as the significance level of the test.
Traditional levels of significance are 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, though the level in any particular problem
will depend on the seriousness of a Type I error.
Rule: The more serious the Type I error, the smaller the significance level should be.

We can also obtain a smaller value of α– the probability that the null will be incorrectly rejected – by
decreasing the size of the rejection region. However, this results in a larger value of β for all parameter
values consistent with Ha.
No rejection region that will simultaneously make both α and all β’s small. A region must be
chosen to strike a compromise between α and β.

Muindi J.
 4

Testing means of a normal population with known σ

C. Comparison of test statistic to critical region to draw initial conclusions.

Rejection regions for z tests:
• (a) upper-tailed test
• (b) lower-tailed test
• (c) two-tailed test

Muindi J.
 5

Example
An inventor has developed a new, energy-efficient lawn mower engine. He claims that the engine will
run continuously for more than 5 hours (300 minutes) on a single gallon of regular gasoline. The leading
brand lawnmower engine runs for 300 minutes on 1 gallon of gasoline.
From his stock of engines, the inventor selects a simple random sample of 50 engines for testing. The
engines run for an average of 305 minutes. The true standard deviation σ is known to be 30 minutes,
and the run times of the engines are normally distributed.
Test the hypothesis that the mean run time is more than 300 minutes. Use a 0.05 level of significance.

Testing Means of a Large Sample

When the sample size is large, the z tests are easily modified to yield valid test procedures without
requiring either a normal population distribution or known σ.
For large sample sizes (n > 30), the standardized variable

X̄ − µ0
Z= √
S/ n

has approximately a standard normal distribution.

Testing Means of a Small Sample from a Normal Population

CI vs. Hypotheses
Rejection regions have much in common with confidence intervals.

Muindi J.
 6

Example:
The Brinell scale measures how hard a material is. An engineer hypothesizes that the mean Brinell score
of all subcritically annealed ductile iron pieces is not equal to 170.
The engineer measured the Brinell score of 25 pieces of this type of iron and calculated the sample
mean to be 174.52 with a sample standard deviation of 10.31.
Perform a hypothesis test that the true average Brinell score is not equal to 170, as well as the
corresponding confidence interval. Set α = 0.01.

D. Calculation of p-value
The p-value measures the ”extremeness” of the sample.
Definition: The p-value is the probability that we would get the sample we have or something more
extreme if the null hypothesis were true.

The smaller the p-value, the more evidence there is in the sample data against the null hypothesis.

• This probability is calculated assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

• Beware: The p-value is not the probability that H0 is true, nor is it an error probability!
• The p-value is between 0 and 1.

Select a significance level α (as before, the desired type I error probability), then α defines the
rejection region.
Then the decision rule is:

• reject H0 if P-value ≤ α
• do not reject H0 if P-value > α

Muindi J.
 7

Thus if the p-value exceeds the chosen significance level, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at that
level. Note, the p-value can be thought of as the smallest significance level at which H0 can be rejected.

P-Values for z Tests

The calculation of the P-value depends on whether the test is upper-, lower-, or two-tailed.

Each of these is the probability of getting a value at least as extreme as what was obtained (assuming
H0 true).

Muindi J.
 8

Back to the lawnmower engine example: Given:

• H0 : µ = 300 vs. Ha : µ > 300
• Z = 1.18

What is the p-value for this result?

Back to the Brinell scale example: Given:

• H0 : µ = 170 vs. Ha : µ ̸= 170
• T = 2.19
What is the p-value for this result?

Examples
Example 1: An inventor has developed a new, energy-efficient lawn mower engine. He claims that the
engine will run continuously for more than 5 hours (300 minutes) on a single gallon of regular gasoline.
The leading brand lawnmower engine runs for 300 minutes on 1 gallon of gasoline. From his stock of
engines, the inventor selects a simple random sample of 50 engines for testing. The engines run for an
average of 305 minutes. The true standard deviation σ is known to be 30 minutes, and the run times
of the engines are normally distributed. Test the hypothesis that the mean run time is more than 300
minutes. Use a 0.05 level of significance. a) Set up test hypothesis b) Write test statistics c) Apply
classical or P-value method d) Draw conclusion and interpret.

Solution

a) Set up the hypotheses

The hypotheses are as follows:

H0 : µ = 300 (The mean run time is 300 minutes)

H1 : µ > 300 (The mean run time is greater than 300 minutes)
This is a right-tailed test.

Muindi J.
 9

b) Test Statistic
Since the population standard deviation is known, we will use the Z-test. The test statistic is given by:
x̄ − µ0
Z=
√σ
n

Where:
• x̄ = 305 (sample mean),
• µ0 = 300 (hypothesized mean),

• σ = 30 (population standard deviation),

• n = 50 (sample size).
Substituting the values, we calculate the Z-statistic:
305 − 300 5 5
Z= = = ≈ 1.18
√30 30 4.243
50 7.071

c) Apply the classical or P-value method

Classical Method
At a significance level of α = 0.05, the critical value for a right-tailed test is:

Zα = Z0.05 = 1.645

Since the calculated Z-statistic (Z = 1.18) is less than the critical value (1.645), we fail to reject the
null hypothesis.

P-value Method
We can also calculate the p-value for the Z-statistic. Using the standard normal distribution table, for
Z = 1.18, the p-value is approximately 0.1190. Since this is a one-tailed test, the p-value is 0.1190.
Since the p-value (0.1190) is greater than the significance level (α = 0.05), we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.

d) Conclusion and Interpretation

Classical Method
The calculated Z-value (1.18) is less than the critical value (1.645), so we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

P-value Method
The p-value (0.1190) is greater than the significance level (α = 0.05), so we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.

Muindi J.
 10

Interpretation
There is insufficient evidence at the 0.05 significance level to conclude that the mean run time of the
lawn mower engines is more than 300 minutes on a single gallon of gasoline.

Example 2: An enzyme researcher hypothesizes that the mean enzymatic activity of a specific enzyme
under suboptimal conditions is not equal to 170 µmol/min. The researcher measures the enzymatic
activity of 25 enzyme samples under these conditions and calculates the sample mean to be 174.52
µmol/min with a sample standard deviation of 10.31 µmol/min.
Perform a hypothesis test to determine if the true average enzymatic activity is different from 170
µmol/min, and calculate the corresponding confidence interval. Use a significance level of α = 0.01

Solution

Given:
• Sample size (n) = 25
• Sample mean (x̄) = 174.52 µmol/min
• Sample standard deviation (s) = 10.31 µmol/min

• Hypothesized mean (µ0 ) = 170 µmol/min

• Significance level (α) = 0.01

Step 1: State the Hypotheses

The hypotheses for the test are:

H0 : µ = 170 (The mean enzymatic activity is 170 µmol/min)

H1 : µ ̸= 170 (The mean enzymatic activity is different from 170 µmol/min)
This is a two-tailed test.

Step 2: Test Statistic

We will use the t-test since the population standard deviation is unknown. The test statistic is calculated
as:
x̄ − µ0
t=
√s
n

Substituting the values:

174.52 − 170 4.52 4.52
t= 10.31 = 10.31 = ≈ 2.19
√
5
2.062
25

Step 3: Critical Value

The degrees of freedom are:

df = n − 1 = 25 − 1 = 24
For a two-tailed test with α = 0.01, the critical t-value at 24 degrees of freedom is:

tα/2,24 = 2.797

Muindi J.
 11

Step 4: Decision Rule

If the calculated t-value is greater than the critical t-value, we reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise, we
fail to reject the null hypothesis.
- Calculated t-value: t = 2.19 - Critical t-value: t0.005,24 = 2.797
Since the calculated t-value (2.19) is less than the critical value (2.797), we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.

Step 5: Conclusion
At the 0.01 significance level, we do not have sufficient evidence to conclude that the true mean enzymatic
activity differs from 170 µmol/min.

Step 6: Confidence Interval

We now calculate the 99% confidence interval for the true mean enzymatic activity:
s
x̄ ± tα/2, df × √
n
Substituting the values:
10.31
174.52 ± 2.797 × √ = 174.52 ± 2.797 × 2.062
25

174.52 ± 5.77
Thus, the 99% confidence interval is:

(174.52 − 5.77, 174.52 + 5.77) = (168.75, 180.29)

Final Conclusion
The 99% confidence interval for the true mean enzymatic activity is between 168.75 µmol/min and 180.29
µmol/min. Since the hypothesized value of 170 is within this range, this supports our conclusion that
we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Muindi J.