Comparative Analysis of Balance of Payments: Indian Perspective
Comparative Analysis of Balance of Payments: Indian Perspective
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ABSTRACT
Uses of funds, such as for imports or to invest in foreign countries, are recorded as negative or deficit
items. When all components of the BOP accounts are included they must sum to zero with no overall
surplus or deficit. For example, if a country is importing more than it exports, its trade balance will be
in deficit, but the shortfall will have to be counter-balanced in other ways – such as by funds earned
from its foreign investments, by running down central bank reserves or by receiving loans from other
countries. The balance of payments of a country is a systematic record of all transactions between the
residents of a country and the rest of the world carried out in a specific period of time. The present
paper scholar tried to focus of concept of BOP and comparative research on Indian balance of payment.
INTRODUCTION
The balance of payments of a country is a systematic record of all transactions between the
residents of a country and the rest of the world carried out in a specific period of time. Balance
of payments (BOP) accounts are an accounting record of all monetary transactions between a
country and the rest of the world. These transactions include payments for the country's exports
and imports of goods, services, financial capital, and financial transfers. The BOP accounts
summarize international transactions for a specific period, usually a year, and are prepared in a
single currency, typically the domestic currency for the country concerned. Sources of funds for
a nation, such as exports or the receipts of loans and investments, are recorded as positive or
surplus items. Uses of funds, such as for imports or to invest in foreign countries, are recorded
as negative or deficit items. When all components of the BOP accounts are included they must
sum to zero with no overall surplus or deficit. For example, if a country is importing more than
it exports, its trade balance will be in deficit, but the shortfall will have to be counter-balanced
in other ways – such as by funds earned from its foreign investments, by running down central
bank reserves or by receiving loans from other countries.
While the overall BOP accounts will always balance when all types of payments are included,
imbalances are possible on individual elements of the BOP, such as the current account, the
capital account excluding the central bank's reserve account, or the sum of the two. Imbalances
in the latter sum can result in surplus countries accumulating wealth, while deficit nations
become increasingly indebted. The term "balance of payments" often refers to this sum: a
country's balance of payments is said to be in surplus (equivalently, the balance of payments is
positive) by a certain amount if sources of funds (such as export goods sold and bonds sold)
exceed uses of funds (such as paying for imported goods and paying for foreign bonds
purchased) by that amount. There is said to be a balance of payments deficit (the balance of
payments is said to be negative) if the former are less than the latter.
Under a fixed exchange rate system, the central bank accommodates those flows by buying up
any net inflow of funds into the country or by providing foreign currency funds to the foreign
exchange market to match any international outflow of funds, thus preventing the funds flows
from affecting the exchange rate between the country's currency and other currencies. Then the
net change per year in the central bank's foreign exchange reserves is sometimes called the
balance of payments surplus or deficit. Alternatives to a fixed exchange rate system include a
managed float where some changes of exchange rates are allowed, or at the other extreme a
purely floating exchange rate (also known as a purely flexible exchange rate). With a pure float
the central bank does not intervene at all to protect or devalue its currency, allowing the rate to
be set by the market, and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves do not change.
Historically there have been different approaches to the question of how or even whether to
eliminate current account or trade imbalances. With record trade imbalances held up as one of
the contributing factors to the financial crisis of 2007–2010, plans to address global imbalances
have been high on the agenda of policy makers since 2009. India's balance of payment
worsened in the early 1990's but now the situation is under control. In fact, India has a good
foreign exchange reserves mainly due to capital inflows from foreign financial institutions or
the stock exchange.
reported figures for the current and capital accounts, which might, for example, report a surplus
for both accounts, but when this happens it always means something has been missed most
commonly, the operations of the country's central bank and what has been missed is recorded in
the statistical discrepancy term (the balancing item).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) use a particular set of definitions for the BOP accounts,
which is also used by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),
and the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA). The main difference in the IMF's
terminology is that it uses the term "financial account" to capture transactions that would under
alternative definitions be recorded in the capital account. The IMF uses the term capital account
to designate a subset of transactions that, according to other usage, form a small part of the
overall capital account. The IMF separates these transactions out to form an additional top level
division of the BOP accounts. The IMF uses the term current account with the same meaning as
that used by other organizations, although it has its own names for its three leading sub-
divisions, which are:
The goods and services account (the overall trade balance)
The primary income account (factor income such as from loans and investments)
The secondary income account (transfer payments)
events culminating in a global crisis. Economic growth decelerated in 2008-09 to 6.7 percent.
This represented a decline of 2.1 percent from the average growth rate of 8.8 percent in the
previous five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). Per capita GDP growth grew by an estimated 4.6
percent in 2008-09. Though this represents a substantial slowdown from the average growth of
7.3 percent per annum during the previous five years, it is still significantly higher than the
average 3.3 percent per annum income growth during 1998-99 to 2002-03. The effect of the
crisis on the Indian economy was not significant in the beginning. The initial effect of the
subprime crisis was, in fact, positive, as the country received accelerated Foreign Institutional
Investment (FII) flows during September 2007 to January 2008. There was a general belief at
this time that the emerging economies could remain largely insulated from the crisis and
provide an alternative engine of growth to the world economy. The argument soon proved
unfounded as the global crisis intensified and spread to the emerging economies through capital
and current account of the balance of payments. The net portfolio flows to India soon turned
negative as Foreign Institutional Investors rushed to sell equity stakes in a bid to replenish
overseas cash balances. This had a knock-on effect on the stock market and the exchange rates
through creating the supply demand imbalance in the foreign exchange market. The current
account was affected mainly after September 2008 through slowdown in exports. Despite
setbacks, however, the BoP situation of the country continues to remain resilient. The
challenges that confronted the Indian economy in 2008-09 and continue to do so in 2009- 10 fall
into two categories - the short-term macroeconomic challenges of monetary and fiscal policy
and the medium-term challenge of attaining and sustaining high rates of economic growth. The
former covers issues such as the trade-off between inflation and growth, the use of monetary
policy versus use of fiscal policy, their relative effectiveness and coordination between the two.
The latter includes the tension between short- and long-term fiscal policy, the immediate longer
term imperatives of monetary policy and the policy and institutional reforms necessary for
restoring high growth.
India’s balance of payments in 2008-09 captured the spread of the global crisis to India. The
current account deficit during 2008-09 shot up to 2.6 percent of GDP from 1.5 percent of GDP
in 2007-08 (Table 1). And this is the highest level of current account deficit for India since
1990-91. The capital account surplus dropped from a record high of 9.3 percent of GDP in
2007-08 to 0.9 percent of GDP. And this is lowest level of capital account surplus since 1981-
82. The year ended with a decline in reserves of US$ 20.1 billion (inclusive of valuation
changes) against a record rise in reserves of US$ 92.2 billion for 2007-08. The global financial
crisis began to affect India from early 2008 through a withdrawal of capital from India’s
financial markets. This is shown in India’s balance of payments as a substantial decline in net
capital inflows in the first half of 2008-09 to US$ 19 billion from US$ 51.4 billion in the first
half of 2007-08, a 63 percent decline. This is seen from a large outflow of portfolio investment
(as equity disinvestment by foreign institutional investors); and lower external commercial
borrowings, short-term trade credit, and short-term bank borrowings. Inflows under foreign
direct investment, external assistance and NRI deposits, by contrast, surged during the first half
of 2008-09.
IMBALANCES
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While the BOP has to balance overall, surpluses or deficits on its individual elements can lead
to imbalances between countries. In general there is concern over deficits in the current account.
Countries with deficits in their current accounts will build up increasing debt and/or see
increased foreign ownership of their assets. The types of deficits that typically raise concern are:
A visible trade deficit where a nation is importing more physical goods than it exports
(even if this is balanced by the other components of the current account.)
An overall current account deficit.
A basic deficit which is the current account plus foreign direct investment (but
excluding other elements of the capital account like short terms loans and the reserve
account.)
As discussed in the history section below, the Washington Consensus period saw a swing of
opinion towards the view that there is no need to worry about imbalances. Opinion swung back
in the opposite direction in the wake of financial crisis of 2007–2009. Mainstream opinion
expressed by the leading financial press and economists, international bodies like the IMF—as
well as leaders of surplus and deficit countries—has returned to the view that large current
account imbalances do matter. Some economists do, however, remain relatively unconcerned
about imbalances and there have been assertions, such as by Michael P. Dooley, David
Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber, that nations need to avoid temptation to switch to
protectionism as a means to correct imbalances.
sector. The global financial crisis however reversed the rupee appreciation and after the end of
positive shock around January 2008, rupee began a slow decline.
A major factor, which affected the emerging economies almost simultaneously, was the
unwinding of stock positions by the FIIs to replenish cash balances abroad. The decline in rupee
became more pronounced after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, requiring RBI
intervention to reduce volatility. It is pertinent to note that a substantial part of the movement in
the rupee-US dollar rate during this period has been a reflection of the movement of the dollar
against a basket of currencies. The rupee stabilized after October 2008, with some volatility.
With signs of recovery and return of foreign institutional investment (FII) flows after March
2009, the rupee has again been strengthening against the US dollar. For the year as a whole, the
nominal value of the rupee declined from Rs. 40.36 per US dollar in March 2008 to Rs. 51.23
per US dollar in March 2009, reflecting 21 percent depreciation during the fiscal 2008/09. In
fiscal 2009/10, however, with the signs of recovery and return of FII flows after March 2009,
the rupee has been strengthening against the US dollar. The movement of the exchange rate in
the year 2009/10 indicated that the average monthly exchange rate of the rupee against the US
dollar appreciated by 9.9 percent from Rs 51.23 per US dollar in March 2009 to Rs 46.63 per
US dollar in December 2009, mainly on account of weakening of the US dollar in the
international market.
ECONOMIC GROWTH
From all accounts, except for the agricultural sector as noted above, economic recovery seems
to be well underway. Economic growth stood at 7 percent during the first half of the current
fiscal year and the advance estimates for GDP growth for 2009-10 is 7.2 percent. The recovery
in GDP growth for 2009-10, as indicated in the advance estimates, is broad based. Seven out of
eight sectors/sub-sectors show a growth rate of 6.5 percent or higher. The exception, as of April
2010 anticipated, is agriculture and allied sectors where the growth rate is estimated to be minus
0.2 percent over 2008-09. Sectors including mining and quarrying; manufacturing; and
electricity, gas and water supply have significantly improved their growth rates at over 8
percent in comparison with 2008-09. When compared to countries across the world, India
stands out as one of the best performing economies. Although there is a clear moderation in
growth from 9 percent levels to 7+ percent, the pace still makes India the fastest growing major
economy after the People’s Republic of China.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Focused attention on how to organize and conduct research can increase the efficiency of the
research process and its outcomes. The second edition of Research Methodology in Applied
Economics provides time-tested guidelines to instruct graduate students in the research process.
Emphasizing research methodology as it applies to economics, Ethridge provides (1) an
overview of the conceptual and philosophical basis of research methodology and (2) procedural
guidelines on designing, coordinating, and conducting research projects. This present topic is
based on conceptual empirical research work and the scholar just adopted Philosophical concept
to complete and perfect conclusion in the comparative analysis study. Though the scholar use
relevant examples for todays and past research paper and work.
OBJECT OF RESEARCH
The balance of payment situation started improving since 1992-93. There was a satisfactory
balance of payment position in that period; the scholar research objects are-
(i) To study High earnings from invisibles,
(ii) To analysis Rise in external commercial borrowings, and
(iii) To Encouragement to foreign direct investment.
Current Account
Current account balance includes visible items (trade balance) and invisibles are in a more
encouraging position. It declined to $ -2,666 million in 2000-01 from $-9680 million in 1990-91
and recorded a surplus in 2003-04 to the extent of $ 14,083 million. In 2005-06, once again
there was a deficit of $ 9,186 million. The main reason for the improvement during 2001-05
was the success of invisible items.
Invisible
The impressive role placed by invisibles in covering trade deficit is due to sharp rise invisible
receipts. The main contributing factors to rise in invisible receipts are non factor receipts and
private transfers. As far as non factor services receipts are concerned the main development has
been the rapid increase in the exports of software services. As far as private transfers are
concerned their main constituent is workers remittance from abroad. During this period the
private transfer receipts also increased from $ 2,069 million in 1990-91 to $ 24,102 million in
2005-06. The current trend of outsourcing a number of jobs by the developed countries to the
developing ones is also helping us to get more jobs and earn additional foreign exchange.
Capital Account
Capital account has been positive throughout the period. NRI deposits and foreign investment
both portfolio and direct have helped to a great extent. The main reasons for huge increase in
capital account is due to large capital inflows on account of Foreign direct investment (FDI);
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) investment on the stock markets and also by way of Euro
equities raised by Indian firms. The Non-resident deposit also forms a part of capital account.
Reserves
Reserves have changed during this period depending on a balance between current and capital
account. An increase in inflow under capital account has helped us to build up our foreign
exchange reserve making the country quiet comfortable on this count. In April 2007 we had $
203 billion foreign exchange reserves.
The year 2005-06 registered the highest trade deficit so far running into $ 51,841 million,
because of rising Oil prices; As a result despite impressive positive earnings of as much as $
42,655 million from invisibles, the current account deficit in this year was $ 9,189 million
which is 1.1% of GDP.
The positive earnings from invisibles covered a substantial part of trade deficit and current
account deficit reduced significantly. The external commercial borrowings were extensively
used to finance the current account deficit. The net nonresident deposits were positive
throughout the ten year period. There has been a growing strength in India's balance of payment
position in the post reform period in spite of growing trade deficit and current account deficit.
On September 30, 2011, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) published India’s balance of
payments (BoP) using a new presentation format. The format improves the presentation of
India’s BoP by aligning with international best practices. A major part of the BoP report has
been compiled based on the IMF’s latest BOP Manual (BPM6) starting from the first quarter of
the fiscal year 2010-2011 (April-June 2010), officially replacing the previous BPM5 format.
CONCLUSION
In order for India’s growth to be much more inclusive than what it has been, much higher level
of public spending is needed in sectors, such as health and education along with the
implementation of sectoral reforms so as to ensure timely and efficient service delivery. Plan
allocations for 2010-11 for the social sectors have been stepped up, this process however needs
to be strengthened and sustained over time. Global financial firm Goldman Sachs today said it
expects India's basic balance of payments (BoP) to turn positive in the fiscal 2009-10 on
anticipations of narrowing of current account deficit and higher inflows.
"Notwithstanding the weakness in trade credit and foreign portfolio inflows, we expect
the basic balance of payments (BoP) to move to positive in FY10," Goldman Sachs
economists Pranjul Bhandari and Tushar Poddar said in a note today. BoP includes
current account balance (the widest measure of trade in goods and services), foreign
direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment.
"In FY10, we expect the current account deficit to narrow sharply. We also expect FDI
inflows, non-resident Indians (NRI) deposits, and external commercial borrowings
(ECB) to remain relatively robust," the economists said in the note.
Goldman Sachs further said the turning of BoP into positive will have a strengthening
effect on the Indian currency over a 6 to 12-month horizon. It expects the rupee to
appreciate to 48 a dollar in 6 months and to 46.9 a dollar in 12 months.
"India's balance of payments may have had its worst quarter in October-December
FY09, when it showed a deficit of $18 billion," Bhandari said. On wholesale price index
(WPI) inflation, Goldman said, "We expect inflation data to go into negative territory in
April."
FUTURE SCOPE
Management of the balance of payments will remain an important problem especially if the
objective is to achieve a balance which can finance the sort of growth in imports that is needed
to developed a sustain technological modernization in increasing numbers of sectors of the
economy. These points to the extreme importance of exports in the years on the industrial front
and the changes made in policies towards exporters should help to strengthen India’s export
capability. Though the scholar just think this one is thrust are of research to developed a
technological modern modal for perfect export and import policies for sustain balance of
payment.
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