CIR 201: Research Methods

and Technical Writing

Lecturer: Dr. Oteyo Obare

Constructing Hypotheses
The definition of a hypothesis

• Hypothesis is a guess, assumption, suspicion, assertion or an idea about a

phenomenon, relationship or situation, the reality or truth of which you do
not know. A researcher calls these assumptions, assertions, statements or
guess hypotheses and they become the basis of an enquiry.
• In most studies the hypothesis will be based upon either previous studies or
your own or someone else’s observations.
• A hypothesis is a speculative statement of the relationship between two or
more variables.
• A hypothesis is a proposition, condition, or principle which is assumed,
perhaps without belief, in order to draw out its logical consequences and by
this method to test its accord with facts which are known or may be
determined.
The definition of a hypothesis Cont..

• A hypothesis is a tentative statement about something, the validity of which is

usually unknown.
• A hypothesis is a proposition that is stated in a testable form and that predicts a
particular relationship between two (or more) variables. In other words, if we
think that a relationship exists, we first state it as a hypothesis and then test the
hypothesis in the field.
• A hypothesis is written in such a way that it can be proven or disproven by valid
and reliable data – it is in order to obtain these data that we perform our study.
• From the above definitions it is apparent that a hypothesis has certain
characteristics:
• 1. It is a tentative proposition.
• 2. Its validity is unknown.
• 3. In most cases, it specifies a relationship between two or more variables.
The functions of a hypothesis

• A hypothesis is important in terms of bringing clarity to the research

problem.
• Specifically, a hypothesis serves the following functions:
i. The formulation of a hypothesis provides a study with focus. It tells you
what specific aspects of a research problem to investigate.
ii. A hypothesis tells you what data to collect and what not to collect,
thereby providing focus to the study.
iii. As it provides a focus, the construction of a hypothesis enhances
objectivity in a study.
iv. A hypothesis may enable you to add to the formulation of theory. It
enables you to conclude specifically what is true or what is false.
The testing of a hypothesis
• To test a hypothesis you need to go through a process that comprises three phases:
(1) constructing a hypothesis; (2) gathering appropriate evidence; and (3)
analysing evidence to draw conclusions as to its validity.
• It is only after analysing the evidence that you can conclude whether your guess or
hypothesis was true or false.
• When concluding about a hypothesis, conventionally, you specifically make a
statement about the correctness or otherwise of a hypothesis in the form of ‘the
hypothesis is true’ or ‘the hypothesis is false’.
• It is therefore imperative that you formulate your hypotheses clearly, precisely and
in a form that is testable.
• In arriving at a conclusion about the validity of your hypothesis, the way you
collect your evidence is of central importance and it is therefore essential that your
study design, sample, data collection method(s), data analysis and conclusions,
and communication of the conclusions be valid, appropriate and free from any
bias.
The characteristics of a hypothesis

• There are a number of considerations to keep in mind when

constructing a hypothesis, as they are important for valid verification.
The wording of a hypothesis therefore must have certain attributes that
make it easier for you to ascertain its validity. These attributes are:
• A hypothesis should be simple, specific and conceptually clear.
There is no place for ambiguity in the construction of a hypothesis, as
ambiguity will make the verification of your hypothesis almost
impossible.
• A hypothesis should be capable of verification. Methods and
techniques must be available for data collection and analysis. There is
no point in formulating a hypothesis if it cannot be subjected to
verification because there are no techniques to verify it.
The characteristics of a hypothesis Cont..

• A hypothesis should be related to the existing body of knowledge.

It is important that your hypothesis emerges from the existing body of
knowledge, and that it adds to it, as this is an important function of
research. This can only be achieved if the hypothesis has its roots in
the existing body of knowledge.
• A hypothesis should be operationalisable. This means that it can be
expressed in terms that can be measured. If it cannot be measured, it
cannot be tested and, hence, no conclusions can be drawn.
Types of hypothesis
• Theoretically there should be only one type of hypothesis, that is the research
hypothesis – the basis of your investigation. However, because of the conventions
in scientific enquiries and because of the wording used in the construction of a
hypothesis, hypotheses can be classified into several types.
• Broadly, there are two categories of hypothesis:
i. Research hypotheses;
ii. Alternate hypotheses.
• The main function of an alternate hypothesis is to explicitly specify the
relationship that will be considered as true in case the research hypothesis proves
to be wrong.
• In a way, an alternate hypothesis is the opposite of the research hypothesis.
Conventionally, a null hypothesis, or hypothesis of no difference, is formulated as
an alternate hypothesis.
Types of hypothesis Cont..

• Let us take an example. Suppose you want to study the smoking pattern in a
community in relation to gender differentials. The following hypotheses
could be constructed:
i. There is no significant difference in the proportion of male and female
smokers in the study population.
ii. A greater proportion of females than males are smokers in the study
population.
iii. A total of 60 per cent of females and 30 per cent of males in the study
population are smokers.
iv. There are twice as many female smokers as male smokers in the study
population.
Types of hypothesis Cont..

• In the examples above, the way the hypothesis has been formulated
indicates that there is no difference of male and female smokers.
• When you construct a hypothesis stipulating that there is no difference
between two situations, groups, outcomes, or the prevalence of a condition
or phenomenon, this is called a null hypothesis and is usually written as
H0.
• The second hypothesis in the example implies that there is a difference
either in the proportion of male and female smokers among the population,
though the extent of the difference is not specified.
• A hypothesis in which a researcher stipulates that there will be a difference
but does not specify its magnitude is called a hypothesis of difference.
Types of hypothesis Cont..
• A researcher may have enough knowledge about the smoking behaviour of
the community in quantitative units. Examine the third hypothesis in the
example: the proportion of female and male smokers is 60 and 30 per cent
respectively. This type of hypothesis is known as a hypothesis of point-
prevalence.
• The fourth hypothesis in the example speculates the relationship between
the prevalence of a phenomenon (smoking) among different populations
(male and female). This type of hypothesis stipulates the prevalence of a
phenomenon in different population groups (‘twice as many female as male
smokers’). This type of hypothesis is called a hypothesis of association.
• Note that the null hypothesis is also classified as a hypothesis of no
difference under ‘Research hypothesis’. Any type of hypothesis, including a
null hypothesis, can become the basis of an enquiry. When a null hypothesis
becomes the basis of an investigation, it becomes a research hypothesis.
Errors in testing a hypothesis

• As already mentioned, a hypothesis is an assumption that may prove to be

either correct or incorrect. It is possible to arrive at an incorrect conclusion
about a hypothesis for a variety of reasons.
• Incorrect conclusions about the validity of a hypothesis may be drawn if:
i. the study design selected is faulty;
ii. the sampling procedure adopted is faulty;
iii. the method of data collection is inaccurate;
iv. the analysis is wrong;
v. the statistical procedures applied are inappropriate; or
vi. the conclusions drawn are incorrect.
Errors in testing a hypothesis Cont..

• Any, some or all of these aspects of the research process could be

responsible for the inadvertent introduction of error in your study,
making conclusions misleading.
• In the testing of a hypothesis there is always the possibility of errors
attributable to the reasons identified above.
• Hence, in drawing conclusions about a hypothesis, two types of error
can occur:
i. Rejection of a null hypothesis when it is true. This is known as a
Type I error.
ii. Acceptance of a null hypothesis when it is false. This is known as a
Type II error.
Hypotheses in qualitative research
• One of the differences in qualitative and quantitative research is around the
importance attached to and the extent of use of hypotheses when
undertaking a study.
• As qualitative studies are characterized by an emphasis on describing,
understanding and exploring phenomena using categorical and subjective
measurement procedures, construction of hypotheses is neither advocated
nor practiced.
• In addition, as the degree of specificity needed to test a hypothesis is
deliberately not adhered to in qualitative research, the testing of a
hypothesis becomes difficult and meaningless.
• This does not mean that you cannot construct hypotheses in qualitative
research; the non-specificity of the problem as well as methods and
procedures make the convention of hypotheses formulation far less
practicable and advisable.