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Guesstimates

Guesstimation is a method of making educated guesses or rough estimates

in situations where precise data is not available or feasible to obtain. It
involves using logic, common sense, and whatever information is available to
come up with a reasonable estimate or approximation.

During data science interviews, guesstimate questions are commonly used to

assess a candidate's ability to think on their feet, apply logic and
problem-solving skills, and communicate complex ideas in a clear and
concise manner. Guesstimation is not a perfect science, but with practice and
experience, it can become a useful tool for making informed decisions in a
variety of settings.

That’s why today we’re covering the top guesstimate questions for data
science interviews (and applicants to positions in similar, related fields!).

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Understanding ‘Guesstimates’?
What is a Guesstimate?
The term “guesstimate” is a portmanteau of “guess” and “estimate.”
Guesstimates are approximations based on the available limited information.
A guesstimate is an information-based guess, not an accurate answer.
Guesstimate is defined as an estimate made without using or knowing
adequate or complete information.

By the guesstimates what do the interviewers want to see?

● Ability to think on your feet

● Logical thought process
● Common sense
● Knowledge of things around you
● Numeracy skills
● Communication skills

The 4-step Approach to Solving a Guesstimate.

1. Clarify the question, and make sure you and the interviewer are on the
same page on every assumption.
2. Break the problems into smaller pieces.
3. Use Estimation and Judgment to solve each piece.
4. Consolidate all of those pieces into a final conclusion.

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What are the two methods of approaching guesstimate questions?

Top-down method: Start with the largest universe possible (which the
guesstimate is a part of), apply sets of conditions and filters, reducing the
universe’s numbers into something that works for the estimate.

Bottom-up method: Start with a low-level statistic and build your way up to
an answer. For instance, if you wanted to figure out a salesperson’s monthly
income, you’d figure out their weekly earnings and then multiply the result by
4.

Suggested approach and guidelines for

Guesstimate:
The structure is the key
● The most important component of solving your guestimate and the
subsequent evaluation is the structure and approach you used to solve
the problem.
● When given a guesstimate, take two minutes to plan how you wish to
proceed and the information you would need.
● The approach should be logical and complete to ensure you’re covering
all necessary details, yet simple enough for you to make quick mental
calculations l

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Choose your approach wisely

● The same guesstimate problem can be solved by different people using
different approaches to arrive at different answers.
● It is imperative for you to choose an approach that you are comfortable
with and one that appears logical.
● Make sure you are confident of the base assumptions and figures – e.g.,

for a ‘Start-big’ problem, you should know the population size and

distribution

State your assumptions clearly

● All assumptions made must be elucidated to the interviewer.
Sometimes the interviewer might ask you to use a different assumption
than what you suggest. No assumption is right or wrong, it just needs
to be sellable!
● There should be a logical backing to each assumption you make. You

can use prior research, popular occurrence, or even personal experience

to defend an assumption. E.g., ‘I would assume that 30% of Indians are

vegetarian – In my class of 50 people, there are close to 15 vegetarians’

Use simple figures and calculate as you go

● Always round off your numbers to the closest multiple of 5 or 10 for
simplicity. State that you’re doing that. Sometimes the interviewer may
want you to use the number as it is.
● Calculate as you proceed and pen down the calculation. It can get
incredibly difficult to do the math in the end once you’ve made a chain
of complicated assumptions.

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● At the end of your guestimate, try and make sense of your final answer
and whether it's accurate.

Here are some tips for Guesstimate

Questions:
Although guesstimate questions don’t produce pinpoint accurate answers,
you can still embrace certain habits and tactics that can improve the quality
of your answers. Keep these tips in mind:

● Remember, there's no such thing as a correct answer: So please don't

get yourself worked up looking for a precise solution; it's not going to
happen.
● Write things down: Write every part of the question down, and if the
question requires segmentation, create a flowchart showing each
segment. The interviewer may want to see your calculation sheet, so
don’t make the sheet illegible or filled with rough calculations.
● Practice rounding: Don’t be worried about fractions or decimals—round
your figures to the nearest whole number.
● Facts top feelings. Avoid relying on your gut feelings. Logic and facts
(even if you have only a few) carry more weight than how you feel or
believe.
● Stay unflappable: You may get a weird question, but don’t let that rattle
you. Every question has an answer, no matter how strange.
● Take a moment and think things through: You don’t get points for
speed. Pause and reflect on the question; quiet your mind and think
things through rationally.

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● Clarify your thoughts, then voice them: Once you’ve had the chance to
consider all the angles and employ whatever facts at your disposal,
come up with an answer in your head, then express it.
● Remember, there’s no wrong answer: This concept is important enough
to repeat. There are no correct answers! If you hold off on answering
until you come up with the perfect answer, you’ll be dead in the water,
and the interviewer won’t be impressed.

Guesstimate Questions and Answers:

1. How many iPhones are currently being used in India?

Clarify with the interviewers whether the question is about only a single
version of the iPhone or all versions put together. Here, we shall assume
that all iPhones put together are being talked about.
The first step toward solving this query will be segmentation. There are
many ways in which India’s population can be segmented. Here, we
shall first assume that only people who have attained a working age
and are under the age of retirement own an iPhone. Children and old
citizens do not own an iPhone. This removes 20% of the population as
children and 20% as senior citizens.
The next assumption will be that only the upper stratum of India’s
income range can afford an iPhone. This metric assumes that only 5% of
the eligible citizens from the previous filter can own an iPhone.
Now, it is not necessary that every member of this upper stratum will
own an iPhone. Other options, such as OnePlus, Samsung, etc., are also
available. However, a fair assumption would be that 20% of the eligible
population from the previous filter owns an iPhone.

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Calculating the proportion of the population that owns an iPhone –

0.6 x 0.05 x 0.20 = 0.006
Total iPhones in India = 0.006 x 140 crores = 0.84 crores

2. How many cars are there in Delhi?

Clarify whether the interviewer assumes just personal vehicles or all

cars, as Delhi is also a government seat. The assumption in this solution
will be that only personal vehicles are being talked about.
Firstly, the population of Delhi is 2 crores, rounding up. The average size
of a family in Delhi may be said to be four people, it being an urban
region mostly composed of nuclear families. Further segmentation may
be as per income class or level. As is customary, 30% of people may be
said to belong to the lower class, 50% to the middle class, and 20% to
the upper class.
The calculation metric will be the number of cars per family. Among
middle-class families, 50% may be said to own a car, and the other 50%
own no car. Among upper-class families, it may be said that all families
own an average of two cars.
Calculating proportions-
Middle class families – 0.5 x 0.5 x 1 = 0.25
Upper class families – 0.2 x 2 = 0.4
Total = 0.65
Total cars in Delhi = 2 crores * 0.65/4 = 32.5 lakhs.

3. How many people live in your apartment building?

Your city has a standardized apartment configuration of 10-floor

structures, each floor with 20 apartments. That’s 200 apartments.

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The average apartment has four people living in it. So at first glance,
your guesstimate would be 800 people. But not so fast! Conventional
wisdom says 10 percent of a building’s apartments are unoccupied! So
that means you guesstimate that 720 people live in your building.

4. How many cups of coffee do Americans drink in New

York City per month?

Let’s begin by establishing that people drink fewer cups of coffee on the
weekends because they don’t need the caffeine boost for their jobs.
Next, we need to look up the population of NYC, which is about 9
million people.
Let’s now say that 20 percent of these people are children, and you
don’t want to caffeinate children! So of the remaining number, 30
percent drink coffee every day, 20 percent drink coffee occasionally, and
10 percent drink tea instead.
Now, we assume that daily coffee drinkers could be drinking three cups
of coffee a day, and the occasional coffee drinkers are happy with just
two cups a week. Here’s the formula breakdown:
Daily coffee drinkers: 3 x 0.2 x 7 = 4.2
Occasional coffee drinkers: 1 x 0.2 x 1 = 0.2
Tea drinkers: 0
Total: Daily + Occasionally + Tea drinkers = 4.4 cups in a day
Per month = 4 x 4.4 x 7.2 million = 126,720,000 cups of coffee per month.

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5. What is the size of the laptop market in the USA?

Make important clarifications such as the unit of measurement. Here,

we shall assume that the unit of measurement is the number of laptops
sold in a year.
The first step will be to make clear the USA’s population, which may be
taken to be 300 million. Next, assume the proportion of this population
that owns a laptop. The last determination will be the average span of
the life of a laptop in the USA.
The USA population may be segmented into retirees, students,
stay-at-home population, and working population. The working
population may be said to be 50% of the total population. The retirees
may be 30% and students maybe 20% of the whole population.
Among the working population, it is assumed everyone owns a laptop.
Among the retirees, a fair assumption would be that nobody owns a
laptop. Among students, while younger classes do not require laptops,
older classes do. So, half the students may be assumed to own a laptop.
Calculating the proportions of the population that own a laptop –
Working population – 0.5 x 1 = 0.5
Students – 0.2 x 0.5 x 1 = 0.1
Total – 0.6.
The average age of a laptop may be said to be 5 years. So, ⅕ of the total
calculated population will change their laptops every year.
The market size of laptops in the USA is 350 million x 0.6 x 0.2 = 42
million.

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6. How many ping-pong balls can fit inside a Boeing 747?

Begin by asking the interviewer the size of a ping pong ball. If you do
not get an answer, assume a value.
To calculate the number of ping pong balls that fit inside a Boeing 747,
we can begin by calculating the volume of a Boeing 747. First, assume
the total number of seats on the plane. Then, account for the extra
space—the aisles, the galleys, and the washrooms.
The additional space will be the space in the overhead compartments
and the space above the passenger’s head. Now, divide the volume that
you have calculated by the volume of the ping pong balls that you have
assumed. Do not forget to account for the empty space between the
balls.
Let’s say there are 400 seats in a plane. If we consider the aisle to
occupy one seat’s space, and there are 40 rows with two aisles, that
adds 80 more seats. Let us say the area above the seat is about the
same as the seat itself. That makes 960 seats in total. The washrooms
and galley might add space worth about 20 more seats, making the
total count roughly 1000 seats.
Each seat can be said to occupy the amount of volume a human takes
up in the sitting position. Assuming this to be 4 ft x 2 ft x 1 ft, the total
seat area is 8 ft. Hence, the plane’s total volume becomes 8000 cubic ft
or 13824000 cubics. Let us say the area occupied by a ball is 4 cubic
inches. The total number of balls hence becomes 3456000. Considering
that balls can be packed only with about 70% efficiency, the total
number of balls becomes 2419000.

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7. How many cups of tea were consumed in Mumbai last

month?
As a first step, inform the interviewers that each day of the week is
being considered equally. Tea consumption might likely decrease
during the weekend as people do not go to the office—so you might
consider that as well. We shall go with the first assumption.

The population of Mumbai is 18 crore; we shall round it up to 2 crores.

20% of this population is assumed to be children who do not drink tea.
Another assumption is that of the remaining population, 20% are
habitual drinkers, 30% are regular drinkers, 20% are occasional drinkers,
and 10% are non-drinkers.

The habitual drinkers may be said to have three cups of tea in a day.
Regular drinkers may be said to have one cup of tea in a day. The tea
consumption of occasion drinkers is maybe once a week, and that of
non-drinkers none at all.

Calculating proportions-

Habitual – 3 x 0.2 x 7 = 4.2

Regular – 1 x 0.3 x 7 = 2.1

Occasional – 1 x 0.2 x 1 = 0.2

Non – 0

Total = 6.5

Total cups per week = 6.5 x 1.6 crore = 10.4 crores

So Total cups per month= 10.4x 5 = 52 crores.

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8. How much paint is required to paint a 10mX10m wall?

There can be many approaches to this question:

● Firstly – You can use the estimate of the Amount of paint
Required/m2.

And next, we find the area that is to be painted. The wall is to be painted
thus the main area is 10mX10m. Let us assume this value as ‘A’=100m2.

● Secondly – Now comes the most tricky part. We need to consider

that the paint takes some depth from the wall. Assuming that
depth to be 1mm.
● Thirdly – We must also consider that the oil in the paint dries after
a few hours of applying the paint on the wall. So we can assume
that the paint was halved after the paint has dried up. Thus the
width of the paint can be considered 2mm now.

Thus Volume to be painted is 100m2 X 0.002m=0.2m3 paint is required.

The most important thing here was to assume that the paint occupies
some depth apart from the wall and it also dries up after painting on
the wall.

And if the cost was asked then that would depend on the Quality of the
paint and the pricing of the paint based on the brand.

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9. How many tennis balls can fit in a Car?

Find out the volume of a car. Clear two things first are if the car is
empty? And 2nd is the model of the car. Then we need to calculate the
volume of the tennis ball for that we will consider the length as 2inch
Calculate the volume by (4 *PI* r^3).
The volume of the ball is 4*3*1^3 = 12
Let’s calculate the volume of the car. Consider the length width and
height as 800 inches, 80 inches, and 60 inches respectively.
The volume of the car is- 800*80*60= 1500000 inches
Let’s say the available volume is 500000 excluding the bonnet seat and
all car accessories.
Divide the size of the car by the size of the balls. 500000/12 = 41666
tennis balls can fit in a car.

10. How many people are in air boarding a plane at this

very moment in India?

The key here is to think about what information you have (or can
estimate) which can help you get to the answer. You need to be clear
about your logic and assumptions and be clear-minded enough to be
able to sense-check the ultimate answer you arrive at.

First, I clarify the question – what is meant by “airplanes”? All planes,

private jets, and commercial flights only.
I will assume that “airplanes” can be divided into four categories:
commercial passenger, freight, small private, and military. There will be

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other types (like charters and crop-dusters) but to simplify things I will
leave them aside.

I assume that these flights are only those flying domestically or to an

international destination (but still over India). I will exclude planes flying
over India from one country to another. I assume there are:

10 giant airports
20 major airports
50 medium airports
100 small airports
Giant airports would have about 20 flights per hour taking off, 18 hours
per day. So, about 360 flights per day. At any one time, perhaps 15
percent of these flights would be in the air. I would assume that the
average plane would contain 250 people. So, that’s 360 x 15% x 250 x 10
airports = 135 000 people.
Major airports would have about 10 flights per hour, 18 hours per day.
Fifteen percent would be in the air at any one time, with an average of
200 people on board. That’s 108 000 people.
Medium-sized airports would have about 10 flights per hour, 15 hours
per day. Fifteen percent would be in the air at any one time, with an
average of 100 people on board. That’s 112 500 people.
Small airports would have about five flights per hour, 12 hours per day.
Fifteen percent would be in the air, with an average of 50 people on
board.
That’s 45 000 people.
Now I can add up all the people. The total equals 400 500 people in the
air right now over India.
To sense-check this, let me just divide by 200 (the average number on
board a commercial airliner). That’s 2002 planes in the air.

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11. Predict the number of red lights in Delhi.

The number of red lights refers to the traffic signals on the roads of
Delhi, not any other lights which are red in color!

We know that Delhi is approximately 1600 sq. km in area. This is pretty

much evenly divided between North, South, East, and West. Imagine
Delhi to be a square area with dimensions 40*40 as length and breadth.
We divide the entire city into blocks of equal area, hence, 20 blocks from
east to West and 20 blocks from North to South (with each block
representing 2 sq. km) Every intersection of four adjacent blocks would
give us a crossroad. Each crossroad would have a traffic signal. Hence,
the number of signals at crossroads would be 400 across Delhi,
averaging out for different areas.

Since there are 400 crossroads in Delhi, the number of red lights at
each crossroad is 4.
Hence, the total number of red lights at crossroads in Delhi is 1600

Let us assume that there are 20% additional red lights to the ones
found at crossroads that are meant to control traffic on straight roads.
These would amount to ~300 red lights.

Thus final Ans = 1600+300

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12. In the US how many square feet of pizza are eaten

each month?

Let’s consider the population of the US 300 million. Let's say 200 million
people eat pizza. Considering the average pizza-eating person eats two
slices at a time and eats pizza twice a month. That means one person
eats four slices a month. If the average size of the pizza is 6 inches, then
the slice is 30 inches of pizza. So 4 pizza slices = 120 square inches.

To summarize:
Population of 300 million people
People eat pizza 200 million
Pizza size= 30 sq. inches
Average people eat four slices of pizza a month
4 pieces x 30 square inches = 120 square inches considering 1 square
foot per person.
200 million square feet a month

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