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Running Head: Early Development of Mathematical Probability Santos 1

The article discusses the evolution of mathematical probability theory, highlighting its origins with Pascal and Fermat in 1654 and its development through the work of Huygens and others. It details the transition from early concepts of chance in games to more structured methods of probability analysis, culminating in Laplace's advancements in the 1770s. The author emphasizes the importance of probability in modern mathematics and its applications in data analysis and demographics.

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ana paula silva santos
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9 views3 pages

Running Head: Early Development of Mathematical Probability Santos 1

The article discusses the evolution of mathematical probability theory, highlighting its origins with Pascal and Fermat in 1654 and its development through the work of Huygens and others. It details the transition from early concepts of chance in games to more structured methods of probability analysis, culminating in Laplace's advancements in the 1770s. The author emphasizes the importance of probability in modern mathematics and its applications in data analysis and demographics.

Uploaded by

ana paula silva santos
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Running head: EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY Santos 1

The Early Development of Mathematical Probability

Ana Paula Silva Santos

William Carey University


EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY Santos 2

Summary

This article underlines the Evolution of mathematical probability theory, and how the

utilization of this tool advanced through the years. The Mathematical probability theory was

officially created by Pascal and Fermat in 1654 and optimized until Laplace’s great treatise in

the nineteenth century. Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat were credited for being the first

mathematicians to solve a problem that has been debated for a long time. Mathematicians

around the world didn’t have a plausible answer until Pascal and Fermat's ideas were

popularized by Christian Huygens, a Dutch physicist, who in 1657 published his “De

ratiociniis in ludo aleae”. On this work, Huygens listed five problems about fair odds in

games of chance and these problems set an agenda for research that continued for

approximately a century.

In the game of chance, a game in which chance rather than skill determines the

outcome, created by Cordano in the 1560s he concluded that stakes in an impartial bet should

correspond to the number of ways in which each player can win. Yet, following Cordano's

ideas, Galileo did not mention the issue with the points but he did collaborate to the study by

enumerating the possible outcomes for throwing a dice three times in order to prove that is

more likely for the sum to be ten than to be nine. All those studies and observations were,

later on, very helpful for Pascal and Fermat to find an answer with reasonable arguments to

support. Fermat and Pascal developed a method with different ways to prove its consistency.

Fermat, on one hand, analyzed the problem by counting the ways that a play might and from

that the stakes should be divided in the same proportions. Pascal, on the other hand, believed

in another method called “The method of expectations”. This method relies on impartiality,

both players must have the equal right to expect to win in the next point. The advancements of

Pascal theories merged his knowledge into his “Traute de triangle arithmetic” which would

provide general solutions to several different problems.


EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY Santos 3

In the seventeenth century, the number between zero and one was only the proportion

of stakes due to a player. However, today we called probability. In the eighteenth century the

probabilities theories were increasing autonomy over equity studies. More specifically the

combination of observation through probability found its place in mathematical theory by

1750. At that time people, for example, would use the theoretical mortality curve, mortality

statistics to collect and observe data. No one knew how to use probability in data analysis.

The mix of analysis would always culminate in inconsistent equations until 1805 when

Adrien-Marie Legendre demonstrated a way to stipulate the unknown quantities. The

Andrien-Marie method consisted of diminishing the sum of squared deviations. This work of

least squares was an instant success, due to its simplicity, its concept, the explicit relation with

the other method, but mainly for its easier way to implement. The evolution of the

observations and methods culminated in the most important invention of probabilistic work:

The Laplace’s method of inverse probability.

Therefore, I find this article very interesting because as we could notice Laplace’s

discovery in the 1770s, a work that consisted of fixed observation rewritten into approximated

quantities proved to be very helpful to the empiricist viewers who would optimize

mathematical statistics. Being very efficient for analyze and calculation of demographics

which can define several aspects and measurements taken upon society. With that being said,

I consider critical that information is more precise as possible. Today probability has evolved

into a vast topic and now is considered a rich brand of mathematics that tends to improve with

the development of new methods and studies, becoming more precise.

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