Coca Cola Valuation
Coca Cola Valuation
Forecast
Particulars Unit FY 2024 FY 2025
EBIT 14,635 16,088
Tax Rate 19.0% 21.0%
Less: Income taxes 2,783 3,380
NOPAT 11,852 12,708
Add: D&A 1,137 1,191
Changes in WC 356 776
Less: Capex (1,052) (1,103)
FCFF 12,294 13,572
10.4%
Terminal value
Total Cash Flow 12,294 13,572
PV of cashflows 11,611 12,105
WACC 5.89%
Long term growth rate 1.90%
Value of firm 375,933
Less: Value of debt 42064
Add:Cash and cash equivalents 12363
Add: Investments 21089 G
Value of equity 367,321 R
O
No of shares outstanding 4339 W
Fair Value / share 84.66 T
H
3 4 5
Forecast
FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028
17,639 19,282 21,008
23.0% 25.0% 27.0%
4,058 4,821 5,672
13,581 14,461 15,336
1,242 1,306 1,363
956 927 898
(1,142) (1,168) (1,182)
14,637 15,525 16,415
7.8% 6.1% 5.7%
419,568
14,637 15,525 435,983
12,329 12,350 327,538
WACC
85 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4%
1.1%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.7%
Particulars Unit
Cost of equity
Risk free rate of returns 4.28%
Returns from Market (Historical) 7.31%
Beta calcuation
Bottom up beta
NYSE
Regression Beta 1.00
290,556 0.68
61,698 0.45
277,267 0.58
54,590 0.63
Average
Unlevered beta 0.55
Total Capital Re levered beta
290,556 0.60
Price Returns
28.59
28.04 -1.92%
29.33 4.62%
28.58 -2.56%
29.43 2.96%
29.17 -0.87%
28.91 -0.93%
28.29 -2.13%
28.15 -0.49%
28.03 -0.43%
28.17 0.52%
28.13 -0.18%
29.08 3.40%
29.32 0.83%
29.32 -0.02%
29.91 2.03%
30.02 0.37%
31.11 3.61%
31.96 2.75%
31.79 -0.55%
31.64 -0.46%
32.67 3.26%
33.65 3.02%
33.55 -0.31%
33.30 -0.75%
34.46 3.47%
34.93 1.38%
34.87 -0.17%
31.21 -10.51%
33.10 6.06%
31.20 -5.74%
26.05 -16.49%
28.20 8.23%
27.11 -3.85%
30.25 11.60%
31.09 2.78%
29.90 -3.84%
29.76 -0.47%
32.89 10.52%
33.01 0.35%
34.36 4.09%
35.96 4.66%
36.12 0.45%
34.15 -5.44%
35.04 2.61%
33.95 -3.11%
34.63 2.00%
35.83 3.45%
37.11 3.59%
37.44 0.89%
39.24 4.81%
41.60 6.00%
41.66 0.16%
41.37 -0.71%
42.27 2.19%
41.13 -2.69%
40.67 -1.13%
39.49 -2.89%
39.40 -0.25%
39.78 0.96%
40.47 1.76%
40.38 -0.23%
40.20 -0.46%
38.29 -4.75%
41.63 8.74%
42.01 0.91%
41.76 -0.60%
42.08 0.75%
43.72 3.91%
44.01 0.66%
45.06 2.40%
44.90 -0.36%
46.24 2.97%
47.49 2.71%
45.83 -3.52%
44.10 -3.76%
43.42 -1.55%
45.55 4.92%
45.87 0.69%
44.83 -2.27%
43.87 -2.13%
43.21 -1.50%
44.47 2.92%
43.96 -1.15%
45.83 4.24%
45.68 -0.32%
47.65 4.30%
49.08 3.02%
49.34 0.52%
48.53 -1.65%
45.63 -5.98%
46.07 0.98%
46.01 -0.14%
47.13 2.46%
47.69 1.17%
46.75 -1.96%
45.88 -1.86%
46.06 0.39%
45.43 -1.37%
45.12 -0.68%
46.54 3.14%
48.15 3.46%
47.16 -2.05%
48.49 2.81%
49.06 1.19%
48.37 -1.41%
48.67 0.61%
48.79 0.26%
47.96 -1.70%
47.32 -1.33%
46.37 -2.01%
44.94 -3.08%
44.63 -0.68%
42.79 -4.13%
42.37 -0.99%
42.50 0.32%
45.81 7.80%
46.03 0.47%
44.65 -3.00%
43.53 -2.52%
41.85 -3.85%
44.78 6.99%
45.81 2.31%
46.92 2.42%
48.02 2.34%
47.03 -2.06%
44.96 -4.41%
42.81 -4.77%
42.65 -0.36%
42.15 -1.20%
41.40 -1.77%
40.63 -1.85%
42.29 4.06%
40.66 -3.84%
36.61 -9.96%
40.29 10.07%
39.35 -2.35%
41.08 4.38%
40.81 -0.65%
41.29 1.19%
42.83 3.71%
42.84 0.04%
43.33 1.16%
44.45 2.56%
43.81 -1.42%
44.83 2.33%
44.42 -0.94%
43.52 -2.02%
44.06 1.24%
47.29 7.33%
47.29 0.01%
48.74 3.06%
48.58 -0.34%
47.54 -2.14%
49.81 4.79%
45.69 -8.27%
45.01 -1.49%
45.29 0.63%
44.58 -1.59%
44.20 -0.85%
46.22 4.57%
43.62 -5.62%
43.54 -0.17%
43.48 -0.15%
45.15 3.83%
43.70 -3.20%
43.79 0.22%
46.77 6.79%
48.97 4.70%
49.06 0.18%
49.85 1.61%
51.69 3.68%
52.02 0.65%
50.02 -3.84%
50.39 0.74%
50.63 0.48%
50.76 0.27%
51.22 0.89%
51.04 -0.34%
50.00 -2.04%
51.40 2.79%
50.90 -0.96%
51.40 0.98%
52.09 1.34%
50.62 -2.83%
51.01 0.77%
50.08 -1.80%
51.49 2.82%
52.04 1.06%
54.01 3.79%
52.56 -2.68%
52.56 0.00%
53.07 0.97%
56.00 5.52%
59.71 6.62%
59.54 -0.28%
59.68 0.24%
57.61 -3.47%
59.48 3.25%
57.25 -3.75%
58.45 2.10%
59.11 1.13%
57.44 -2.83%
55.87 -2.73%
57.31 2.58%
58.10 1.38%
58.15 0.09%
55.11 -5.23%
58.18 5.57%
57.36 -1.41%
57.34 -0.03%
56.55 -1.38%
56.37 -0.32%
56.14 -0.41%
54.52 -2.89%
52.95 -2.88%
49.97 -5.63%
47.72 -4.50%
49.98 4.74%
49.90 -0.16%
55.56 11.34%
55.28 -0.50%
54.79 -0.89%
55.17 0.69%
55.22 0.09%
53.92 -2.35%
55.09 2.17%
56.01 1.67%
57.61 2.86%
57.54 -0.12%
59.05 2.62%
57.18 -3.17%
55.44 -3.04%
55.35 -0.16%
55.66 0.56%
55.02 -1.15%
55.29 0.49%
Particulars Unit
Cost of debt
Marginal tax rate 27.00%
Market based method
Yield of Coca-Cola Bond
FV 100
CMP 131.179
Redempetion 29-Jul-93
Valuation date 20-Feb-24
Time to maturity 69.44
Coupon rate 7.38%
Coupon amount 7.375
Cost of debt. (Pre tax) 5.59%
Cost of debt. (Post tax) 4.08%
Add: Opening balance of cash and cash equivalents 9,366 11,688 13,892
Closing balance 11,688 13,892 15,246
n millions except par value)
Forecast
FY 2027 FY 2028
17,865 19,566
1,306 1,363
1,174 1,001
(1,471) (1,415)
(2,475) (2,697)
(5) (40)
16,394 17,778
(2) 41
(549) (577)
(647) (680)
1,928 2,025
197 88
17,321 18,676
(1,168) (1,182)
- -
1,471 1,415
2,475 2,697
5 40
2,783 2,970
851 (2,007)
(5,073) (3,350)
(1,174) (1,001)
(14,564) (16,600)
(19,960) (22,958)
144 (1,312)
15,246 15,390
15,390 14,078
Historical
Particulars Unit FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022
Assets $
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 6,795 9,684 9,519
Short-term investments 1,771 1,242 1,043
Total Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments 8,566 10,926 10,562
Check - - -
Workings
Current assets
Trade accounts receivable, $ 3,144 3,512 3,487
Receivable turnover ratio 10.50 11.01 12.34
Receivable days Days 35 33 30
Current liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued expenses 11,145 14,619 15,749
Accounts payable and accrued expenses as % of COGS 83% 95% 88%
- - - - - -
- - - -
3,410 3,500 3,569 3,607 3,609 3,568
13.43 14.40 15.52 16.84 18.40 20.28
27 25 24 22 20 18
30,913 27,148
851 (2,007)
4,616 2,770
27,148 22,372
3.4% 3.4%
987 842
1.32 1.00
3,756 3,298
- -
457 580
3,298 2,718
5.3% 5.3%
187 159
Historical
Particulars Unit FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022
110 61 54 42 42 34
Historical
Particulars Unit FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022
Workings
GP margin % 59.1% 60.1% 58.6%
SG&A as % of sales 29.5% 31.4% 29.9%
EBIT margin % 29.6% 28.7% 28.7%
Effective tax rate % 19.5% 18.6% 19.0%
Equity Income as % of sales 3.6% 3.8% 3.5%
Net profit margin 25.6% 26.2% 25.2%
Noncontrolling interests as % of Conso. Net income 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Normalised EBITDA 11,306 12,561 13,605
Depreciation and amortization 1,536 1,452 1,260
EBITDA margin 34.3% 32.5% 31.6%
Dividend 7,090 7,291 7,656
Yield on cash 3% 5%
(In millions except par value)
al Forecast
FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 FY 2028
18,520
(55)
18,465 20,473 22,506 24,676 26,975 29,390
27,319 29,926 32,897 36,070 39,430 42,959
13,972
11
13,983 15,291 16,810 18,431 20,147 21,951
1,951
(1,951)
-
Corporate 46 85 94
Growth rate% 84.8% 10.6%
Add/Less: Inorganic growth - - -
Organic 0.0% 84.8% 10.6%
Total revenue before elemination 34,057 39,910 44,380