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Computing Probabilities 2

The document provides an overview of conditional probability, including examples of independent and dependent events. It presents various problems involving the calculation of probabilities in different scenarios, such as drawing cards, selecting marbles, and rolling dice. The document emphasizes the importance of understanding how the occurrence of one event affects the probability of another event.

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naufumi17
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8 views18 pages

Computing Probabilities 2

The document provides an overview of conditional probability, including examples of independent and dependent events. It presents various problems involving the calculation of probabilities in different scenarios, such as drawing cards, selecting marbles, and rolling dice. The document emphasizes the importance of understanding how the occurrence of one event affects the probability of another event.

Uploaded by

naufumi17
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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COMPUTING PROBABILITIES 2

BY MS. GIE ANNE MARIE INOT


OBJECTIVE:

Find the conditional


probability of an event
LET’S TRY THIS!
Given a bag of 10 marbles where 2 marbles
are black, what is the probability of pulling a
black marble two times in a row,

when you put the 1st marble back in? when you keep the 1st marble?

2 2 2 1
∙ ∙
10 10 10 9
1 1 1 1 1 1
∙ = ∙ =
5 5 25 5 9 45
LET’S TRY THIS!
Given a standard deck of 52 cards, what is
the probability of drawing a card of hearts
two times in a row,

when you replace the 1st card of when you don’t replace the 1st
hearts? card of hearts?

13 13 13 12
∙ ∙
52 52 52 51
1 1 1 1 4 1
∙ = ∙ =
4 4 16 4 17 17
The first part are INDEPENDENT EVENTS – that is when
two or more events have no effect on the occurrence of
each other.

The second part are DEPENDENT EVENTS – since the


occurrence of one event has an effect on the other.

𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)=𝑷(𝑨) 𝒙 𝑷(𝑩|𝑨)

Conditional Probability
The probability that B will occur given
that A has occurred.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The conditional probability of an event changes resulting
from the condition that another event has previously
occurred.
In computing the conditional probability of an event, the
given condition (the first event) determines the new
sample space and the favourable outcomes are
determined by the common elements of the antecedent
and considered events. It is computed by the formula

𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
𝑷(𝑩|𝑨)= , where 𝑷(𝑨) ≠ 𝟎
𝑷(𝑨)
PROBLEM NO. 1

TWO STRIPS OF PAPER ARE CHOSEN,


WITHOUT REPLACEMENT, FROM A SMALL
BOX CONTAINING BLUE AND WHITE STRIPS.
THE PROBABILITY OF SELECTING A BLUE
STRIP AND THEN, A WHITE STRIP IS 0.54 AND
THE PROBABILITY OF SELECTING A BLUE
STRIP ON THE FIRST DRAW IS 0.72. WHAT IS
THE PROBABILITY OF SELECTING A WHITE
STRIP ON THE SECOND DRAW GIVEN THAT
THE FIRST STRIP CHOSEN WAS BLUE?
PROBLEM NO. 1

A = event of selecting a blue strip


B = event of selecting a white strip

Given: 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟒 𝑷 𝑨 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟐

𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑎 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝)


𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝)
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 0.54
= =
𝑃 𝐴 0.72
3
= 𝑜𝑟 0.75 𝑜𝑟75%
4
PROBLEM NO. 2

SUPPOSE TWO CARDS ARE


SELECTED AT RANDOM FROM A
STANDARD DECK OF 52 CARDS.
FIND THE PROBABILITY THAT THE
SECOND CARD IS ALSO AN ACE
GIVEN THAT THE FIRST CARD IS
AN ACE.
PROBLEM NO. 2

A = event of selecting the first ace card


B = event of selecting the second ace card

4 1 4 3 1
Let: 𝑃 𝐴 = = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = ⋅ =
52 13 52 51 221

𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑐𝑒)


𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑)
1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 221
= = 1
𝑃 𝐴
13
1
= 𝑜𝑟 0. 0588 𝑜𝑟 5.88%
17
PROBLEM NO. 3

THE PROBABILITY THAT IT IS


FEBRUARY AND JENNY IS
GETTING MARRIED IS 0.04.
FIND THE PROBABILITY THAT
JENNY IS GETTING MARRIED
GIVEN THAT IT IS FEBRUARY?
PROBLEM NO. 3

A = event that it is February


B = event that Jenny is getting married

Given: 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒
1
Let: 𝑃 𝐴 =
12 → {Jan, Feb, March, April, May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec}

𝑃(𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝐹𝑒𝑏𝑟𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐽𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑 )


𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝐹𝑒𝑏𝑟𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦)

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 0.04
= = 1
𝑃 𝐴
12
12
= 𝑜𝑟 0. 48 𝑜𝑟 48%
25
PROBLEM NO. 4

A DIE IS ROLLED. WHAT


IS THE PROBABILITY
THAT THE OUTCOME IS
EVEN GIVEN THAT IT IS
AT LEAST 4?
PROBLEM NO. 4

A = event of rolling at least 4


B = event of rolling an even

3 1 2 1
Let: 𝑃 𝐴 = = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = =
6 2 6 3

𝑃(𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛)


𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 4)
1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 3
= = 1
𝑃 𝐴
2
2
= 𝑜𝑟 0. 6667 𝑜𝑟 66.67%
3
PROBLEM NO. 5

A MATH TEACHER GAVE HER


CLASS TWO TESTS. 25% OF THE
CLASS PASSED BOTH TESTS AND
42% OF THE CLASS PASSED THE
FIRST TEST. WHAT PERCENT OF
THOSE WHO PASSED THE FIRST
TEST ALSO PASSED THE SECOND
TEST?
PROBLEM NO. 5

A = event of passing the first test


B = event of passing the second test

Given: 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝟐𝟓% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝑷 𝑨 = 𝟒𝟐% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟒𝟐

𝑃(𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑠)


𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡)
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 0.25
= =
𝑃 𝐴 0.42
25
= 𝑜𝑟 0. 5952 𝑜𝑟 59.52%
42
PROBLEM NO. 6

YOUR NEIGHBOR HAS 2


CHILDREN. YOU LEARN
THAT HE HAS A SON, JOE.
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY
THAT JOE’S SIBLING IS A
BROTHER?
PROBLEM NO. 6

A = event that the neighbor has a son


B = event that the Joe’s sibling is a boy

3 1
Let: 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =
4 → {(B,B), (B,G), (G,B), (G,G)} 4

𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑏𝑜𝑟 ′ 𝑠 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑏𝑜𝑦𝑠)


𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑏𝑜𝑟 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑠𝑜𝑛)
1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 4
= = 3
𝑃 𝐴
4
1
= 𝑜𝑟 0. 3333 𝑜𝑟 33.33%
3

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