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B.SC Statisctics Question Bank

The document outlines various statistical problems related to trend analysis, including methods for calculating moving averages, linear and quadratic trends, and exponential trends using least squares. It also discusses seasonal indices using the link relatives method and includes practical applications of Fisher's Price Index for testing index number consistency. Each problem includes formulas, procedures, and examples for clarity.

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Ram Sai Meghnadh
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41 views34 pages

B.SC Statisctics Question Bank

The document outlines various statistical problems related to trend analysis, including methods for calculating moving averages, linear and quadratic trends, and exponential trends using least squares. It also discusses seasonal indices using the link relatives method and includes practical applications of Fisher's Price Index for testing index number consistency. Each problem includes formulas, procedures, and examples for clarity.

Uploaded by

Ram Sai Meghnadh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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3 LERAG Measurement of), Squares ang weer Vii —_____187 TICAY — Treng 9 (M eth Avera Od of Least ge M. (pROBLEM 1. Deter; lethod) : ne th, ihe following data assure value e treng the per Ss iodo re method of moving average form 8 average is 5. And also plot the ROBLEM 2. Calc /ajso draw the graph, Howing data 8 976| 974 wale ® | 10 [aa Tae] as pas as 2226) 44{ iad 149 1168] 1196| 1200] 1219| 1380 OBLEM 3. Assuming linear rong fs data by least squares methes wna = 101.8388 » SUX _ 453 _ From equation (3), = “sya = 79 = $4748. ue] p.A/e.Se. STATISTICS [Paper-viyay The required trend equation is Be = 101.8333 + 6.47143X Inference : ‘The required trend equation is Ue = 101.8333 + 6.47143X And trend values are 69.4763, 82.4191, 95.3619,108.304 Graph 7, 121.2475, 134.1903. y. | Scale On X-axis 1. cm - 1 year On Y-axis 1. om - 10 units 150 Original values 140) 4 139 + Trend values 120) —< Year —> 5, Aim : To fit an exponential curve to the given time series of data by least squares method and to obtain the trend values and also to draw the graph. Formula and Procedure : Let U, = ac be the exponential curve e(1) a PRACTICALS 105 fo log on both aiden ce ue loR A+ od OR MY. lowe A ‘i 1 = ¥ Lona m A, , cee log be B sul) form of straight ti ain the ‘night line ¢ qu ‘and Y thus the normal equation for estimating A, B hy o> Wen A+B yy . She SVs Aden ye ao cantons en be solved for A and B a = Antilog A, b = Antilog B itute @ and b values in o subs in eqn. (1) which givos the bost trend lines for the given pe ! ae ulations : 1 Given number of years 2 = 6 (even) verage of middle values) tat 1/2 interval = 2(¢— 1993.5) ae exponential curve ist, = ae! log u = loga + ot ee Y, =A+tb (2) ‘ log, =Yn log =A 7 The normal equations are : ye DY = nAtbye (8) Aye +b 32 wd) Ut | Yt=logu,| Yr-X Trend values U;= tel aoiiata 131.1837 €°.259* 23,4385 97.5242 13.7427 109.8044 4.7059 123.6309 5.0324 139.1984 15.3879 156.7262 25.6170 176.4610 4.1502 803.3451 The normal equations are gye = nA + BUX (bye fsx =0 packs 29.2598 _ 49766 7” ‘Az Antilog (4.8768) = ange of origin and scale factor) " 4 = Antilog 431.1839 166 SXvP = ASX +8 SX? Since JX =0 5 mt 4.1502 _ 09,0593 sxe 7 70 Trend equation is Ui =6 ok = 131.1839 0.0899 4, 156.7262, 176.4619, Inference : The exponential curve is Ut = act The trend vatues are 97.5242, 109.8044 123.6309, 139-198 Graph ‘on graph scale on x-axis 10m 1 Yea? Gn ¥-axis 1.6m - § units 50 45 40 Trend values 35 J 30 A Original values x EESESES 2. J\ SEES <= Year > % PRACTICAL 2 | ncacinsaantrt Measurement of Seasonal Indices—Link Relatives Method OBLEM 1. Apply the method of li i i pac BE eal indies. of link relatives to the following data and ters eee a Qe | Bean ey t 6 | 6.5 | 78 { 8.7 54 | 7 34 | 73 6.8 6.5 9.3 | 64 | 2002 72 58 75 | 85 2003 6.6 73 8 | TA ative method. im ; To determine the seasonal indices by using link rel: | Ai Formula and Procedure : ‘The seasonal indices determined by the method of link relatives through following steps: Step 1: Arrange the data according to seasons, the seasons may be monthly or quarterly. Step2: Translate the original data into link relatives is link relative for a season = 100 ‘The figure of current season * The figure for just previous season Find the average link relatives for each season. Step 3: k relatives int Step4: Convert these average linl for a season _ Link relative of that to chain relatives i.e., chain relative eason x Chain relative of the previous season 100 But check the chain relative for the first season as 100. Step5: After the completion of all the chain relatives again calc velative for first season by taking the last season as base. Step 6: Find a correction factor (d) a=} (New chain rel ulate the chain where lative for 1st season 100) k = 12 for monthly date hp = 4 for quarterly date. 168 B.A/B.Sc. STATISTICS [Paper-VIl(A)) Step 7: Subtracting 1d, 2d ... 11d for monthly date from 2nd month onwards. Step 8: The values obtained earlier are seasonal indices. Calculations : Calculation of seasonal indices by link relative method. ‘The figure ‘The link relative for figure = Brsigns mutetor gure * 100 Link relative for Qy of 1999 = $8 x 100 = 108.33 Link relative for Qy of 1999 = 28 « 100 = 120. Quarters a es a @. Year 1999 oe 108.33, 120 111.64 2000 62.07 146.30 106.33 86.90 2001 93.15 95.59 143.08 68.82 2002 112.15 80.56 129.31 113.33 2003 77.65 110.61 109.59 88.75 Total of L.R. 345.357 541.39 608.31 469.34 Avg. of L.R. 86.3425 108.278 121.662 93.868 CR. 100 108.278 131.733 123.655 Corrected C.R. 100 106.5863 128.3496 118.579 SL 88.1998 94,0088 113.2040 104.5872 d = [New chain relative for Ist season 100] k=4 Chain relative of Q; = 100 123,655 x 86.342: Chain relative of Q; = 228.655 x 86.508 = 106.7668 .7668 — 100 pe asziees 1.6917 ‘Average of corrected chain relatives. . 18.57: 2100 + 106.586 + 128.9496 + 118.6799 _ 44 579g a Corrected chain relati Seasonal variation index =~ Tectts Shan relative 199 100 Seasonal Index for Qi = 773-3799 * 100 = 88.1998 geo YEAR PRACTICALS _ 106.5863 Seasonal Index for Q, = 113.3799 * 100 = 94.0088 se 128.3496 ~ Seasonal Index for Q, = 713.3790 < 100 = 113.2040 _-Seasonal Index for Q, = sdereace © Seasonal Index for Q, Seasonal Index for Q: Seasonal Index for Q; Seasonal Index for Q; 169 BALB.Sc. STATISTICS (Papp. “ (Ay 170 PRACTICAL 3 | Reversal Tests XN /PROBLEM 1. Cominodiiy [ape ane Meemernne Or ie, A | 2 3B 1 4 B 4 _ 7 3 8 ne { : 4 7 { 6 D | 10 { 12 | 12 | 14 E | 15 | 16 | 18 20 Show that Fisher's Price Index number is an ideal index number, Lannea fisher index m Aim : To prove Time Reversal Test and Factor Reversal test for umber and hence to prove it is an idle index number. Formula and Procedure : Time Reversal Test. This test was proposed of good index number. The time reversal test is that number. Should be such that it will give the same ratio and the other, no matter which of the two is taken as base. /. forward be the reciprocal of the backward i.e. Po x Pio= 1 Por = YPio , ; Fisher's Marshall = Edgeworth, Walectis Kelly's price index are satisfied by time reversal test. ; ji Factoral Reversal Test. It was proposed by ‘Irwing Fisher’ for the consistency of good index number. The factor reversal test in that a formula should permit the interchange of two items without giving in consistent result, i.e., (then the index number satisfy) two results multiplied together should give the value ratio for constant of proportionally. If Po: x Qo = Vox. Then the index number satisfy factor reversal test, where Vo, = Pdi Value index number of current year Vor = 5759, py “Irwing Fisher” for the consistency hat the formula for calculating index between one point of comparison _, the index number for the (or) Fisher's price index satisfied factor reversal test. ee | ga! culations g calculation of Fisher's Price Index, pf, = [22170 \2P0% : i P19 Pot Pits 3 8 4 21 24 24 28 24 42 144 140 168 288 300 360 Yigo=| Spor =| 3191 = 484 496 598 _ [484598 = Fax 496 * 100 = 120.33. ‘Time Reversal test : F Phx Pip =1 ph = [Bee , Sa _ [484x598 where 1 = ft x = Poo Po 1 403 x 496 and P= ae _ [496403 Zpigi PJ 598x484 Fisher’s Price Index satisfied time reversal test. Factor Reversal test : where Pes | seize Pits _ [484x598 VEpoG0 * Zpoq, 403 x 496 r _ [Eqpo, 2p _ [496x598 and a= [Ee Be - 1 = yZqqpo © gop V 409x484 F 48. pr x Qi = {84 598 | 496 , 598 _ 598 = \403 * 496 “ 484“ 403 ~ 403 DPin ot _v, Yor” Fisher's price index satisfied both time reversal test and factor reversal test hence Fisher index is an idle index number. Inference : Fisher pric is an idle index number. .e index satisfied both time reversal test and factor reversal test, hence it a PRACTICAL 4 | Cost of Living index Numbers (OBLEM 1. Compute the cost of liv, giture and family budget methods te ing index number usi ing both the aggregate the following data : : “Commodity Unit consumed in | Price iw base year | Price in current a base year year Ps seh where Bt = The total No. of the live births occurred in the region for the time period ‘’. P,t = The annual age female population of reproductive or child bearing age period. lower limit is Ay and upper limit is Az. k = A positive integer usually 1,000 or 10,000 females. (6) SBR. snix= ae 1,000 where nBx = The No. of live births occurred to the female population of the child bearing age groupx tox+n nP,f = The No. of female population of the child bearing age group x to x + n. k= A positive integer usually 1,000 or 10,000. nix= The specific fertility rate of the reproductive age group x tox +n. a (c) TER = > x (nix) seh = The total fertility rate for the age group x tox +n. @ GRR. = Cx T.F.R. where C= zg 2 1,820/15,200 x 1. 916/14,800 x 1 000 = 7,058 (a) General fertility rate, GFR, 450.2844 Be = — « 1,000 nP.f oh, ~ Tr me 1,000 = 65.5339 (b) SFR. in the age group x tox +n is given by ian iE * 1,000 and are given in the above column = 450.2844 de 49 (c) TFR. = a n (nix) =5 > . (nis) = 5 x 450.2844 = 2251.422 Gross reproduction rate, © GRR. =CxTFR. B where =B Given that the ratio is 46.2% is Br 46.2 B ~ 100 C =0.462 G.R.R. = 0.462 x 2251.422 , = 140.1570 Inference : (a) GFR. = 65.5339 (b) SFR. = 450.2844 = 2251.422 (c) T.F.R. = 2: i G.RR. = 1040.1570 60/16,000 x 1,000 = 16.25 2,244/16,400 x 1,000 = 186.8293 1894/15,800 x 1,900 = 119.8734 000 = 86.8421. 61.8919 280/15,000 x 1,000 = 8.6617 4144/14,500 x 1,000 = 9.9310 STATISTICS [Pa 184 B.ALB.SC- 184 A: e Tables _ HT Orn LU PROBLEM 1. Given the following for /,, the number of given the following num, of rabbits living at the age. Complete the life table for rabbits. 0 1 2 3 SS 100 90 80 75 PROBLEM 2. Fill in the blanks of following table which are marked wig, question marks, Age x L d, de Px Ly Ts 20 | 693,435 |? 2 2 Ra sfS5081i126 L211 | 690,673 | — = = = i PROBLEM 3. Fill, in the blanks ina portion of life table given below : ‘Age in years @) 4 da, as Ps Ls Ts e,? 4 95,000 | 500 ? ? 2 | 48,50,300| 2 | 5 2 400 2 2 e. 2 2 | Aim : To the number of given the following number of rabbits living at the age complete the life table for rabbits. Formula and Procedure : A typical complete life table consists of 11 columns, which can be expressed as x 1 ad, | as | ps | me | uw | Lr | T | G& | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ll where w is the each annual age of the cohort. J, is the number of individuals living at the age ‘x’. Klee t which is that the number of individuals of the age ‘x’, who die before reaching the next age x +1. L, dz =1,-e 41 = Aly = d, a «aie . © ig the probability of the individuals of age x, who die before reaching the dx agext+1. Pz = 1~4qzis the probability of individuals of age x who live upto the age x + 1. A PRACTICALS 185 I ao ve" 24s ms “3-q is the central mortality rate, which is the probability of the individuals whose age is not known exactly but lies in the central part of x and x + 1 will be die following the attainment of next age. a3 0g I = ox is the force of mortality at the age ‘x’ Lgtlest 1, => is the average of number of individuals living between the age group x and x + 1 which is also known as aggregate number of years lived by the cohort in between the age x andx +1. Tp, = Le + Ly+1 + Le 42+... is the total number of individual living after the age x which is also known as total number of lived by the cohort after the age ne ef= TL which is complete expectation of life of individuals after the age x. bi C= e,° — 1/2 is the curate expectation of life of individuals after the age x. ie i calculations : é dz =le—les1 dy bet len 2 Qs = 7,3 lee Pac.) o®| eee | ot 100 100-90 = 10 0.1 100 + 90/2 = 95 385 3.85 90 90-80=10 0.1111 | 90 + 80/2 = 85 | 385-95 = 290 3.2222 80 80-75=5 0.0625 17.5 290-85 = 205) 2.5625 15 75-60 = 15 0.2 67.5 127.5 7 60 60-30=30 0.5 45 60 1 30 30-0=30 1 15 15 05 0 2 = = 0 S 69,34,436 — 6,90,67: x9 = boy ~ Lay 920 = 7 = 0.00398 P20 =1—qo9 = 1— 0.00398 = 0.99602. Ly = $00 + lay _ 69,34,435 + 6,90,673 _ 6,92,054 2 2 Tr.) =T,-L, Tay = T29 — Lyp = 34,89,072 fo eh Inference : dao = 2.672 920 = 0.00398 P29 = 0.99602 Loo = 692054 T2 = 34389072 eo = 60.5904 e$, = 49.7907 3. Calculations : In the usual notations, we get d@, =le- 1,4) For x = 4, then dy = 14—J5 Js = 14—d4 = 95,000 — 500 = 94,500 Fore=4, py == 34500 = 0.9947 94 =1—p4= 1 -0,9947 = 0.0053 Forx=5, Js =ps—ds = 94,500 — 400 = 94,100 95 =1—ps= 1-0.9958 = 0.0042 bet leat L, =, if Forx=4, Ly = ants $8,000 + 94,500 = 94,750. = 4850,300 ~ 95,000 = 48,50,000 — 94,759 = 47,55,550 Ts _ 47,55,550 Ts = 94,800 = 50.3233 ice = pnfere! Ls = 94,500 pa = 0.9947 qa = 0.0053 oe Li 294,750 Ly = 943 ef = 50.3233 188 B.A/B.Sc. STATISTICS [Paper-Viyay, [PRACTICAL 7 Measurement of Linear Trend using MS-Excel of Principle of Least Squares ROBLEM 1. Fit a straight line for the following data and also plot the observeq @ expected values in a graph by using MS-Excel. x 0 5 10 16 7 25 30 ¥ 10 4 [19 25 et 36 So ei ud To fit a straight line and to calculate trend values for the given data using Ms. xcel. Formula and Procedure: There are two methods to fit a straight line in MS-Exce), Method 1 : The equation of the straight line is Y=a+6X we the me? where X is the independent variable and Y is the dependent variable, ‘a is the intercept and ‘b' is the slope. Step 1: Enter given values of X and Y as first and second columns of the table in MS-Excel Sheet. Step 2: To plot the observed values of Y—Select first and second columns of the data and Go to Tool Bar — Insert -> Scatter —r Select first chart. This displays scatter plot of observed values. Step 3: In the scatter plot, on any point right click the mouse and select - Adq Trend Line — Trend line options — Select Linear + © click Display equation on chart close. Step 4: To change legend (Series 1, Series 2), select legend — Click on series 1 — Right click on series 1 -> select Data — click Series 1 — Edit. Step 5: In the Edit Series window opened, change Series 1 to ‘Y’ — OK. This changes Series 1 to ‘Y’. Now click OK in Select Data Source Window. This gives the required legend. 45, 40 5 35 30 25 021x + 9.635 Y 20 —Linear (Y) 15 10 5 ° 0 5 10 15 20 2 30 35 bey YEAR PRACTICALS ee is gives the plot of observed and pf best fit will be displayed, estimated values on the scatter plot and straight ‘method 2: Enter X and Y values in MS-Excel Worksheet re + Click a y step 1 C ic _ Proper destination cell and go to Tool Bar Formulas -> Insert rc oe ion a Select a Category (Statistical) — Select Intercept = [ox] jown—y's (Click red butt : wn and again elick the red button) = Known eorenee red hate a Independent variable ( : This gives intercept a? step 2+ Click a proper destination cell and go to Tool Bar — Formulas -> Insert Function (f,) — Select a Category (Statistical) + Select Slope Known— vs (click red button and select dependent variable (y) column and again click ‘the red button) + Known—x's (click red button and select Independent Variable (x) column and again click the red button) ~ OK. This gives the slope‘ Known—r's (click red button and select (x) column and again click the red button) - OK. of (1). of (1). Step 3: Substitute a and b obtained from Step 1 and Step 2 in equation 1 to get a straight line of best fit. Step 4: To estimate Y values make a third column in the table and using fitted equation obtain the values. Calculations : Data: 40 35 7 30 25 oy Using method 1 for | | ~ the given data, the following plot of | 4. | observed and estimated values is | 10 obtained. The line of fo best fit is displayed | 5 and is obtained as | | 25 30 3 $oos357+102X. | 0 5 10 18 2 Chart 2 Se. STATISTICS [Paper-viray, tabulated : From the line of best fit the estimated values of Y are Ye 9.5357 + 1.021X 3 econ aie anaes sl 9.5357 o ao 14.6407 1b 4 19.7457 a a 24,8507 16 25 29.9557 oe ee 35.0714 5 36 1657 30 39 = Inference : ted The line of best fit is¥ = 9.5357 + 1.021X. Estimated values are plotted and also computed using the line of best fit. y year PRACTICALS 201 PRACTICAL 19 ortality Rates, Fertility Rates and Life Tables Using M Ms Excel JOBLEM 1. Find various fertility rates to the fatlowine data Age group Female population No. of live births in (in years) (in thousands) @ year 1619” 16 400 : 15 1,700 24 20 14 2.100 25-29 30-84 13 1.430 eae 12 960, oe | 11 40—44 | 46—49 J 9 \ _— a, 4. Aim : To calculate various fertility rates for the given data. Formula and Procedure : Step 1: Enter the given data Step 2: Calculate Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Total live births Total population % 1000 Step 3: Calculate General Fertility Rate (GFR) Formula for CBR is . Total live births Formula for GFR is ota] number of women in the child bearing ages * 10° 202 B.A/B.Se. STATISTICS [Paper-Viyayy Ble acre eee eee Oe el Step 4: Calculate Specific Fertility Rate (SFR) No. of live births Formula for SFR is 75 F women (for a particular age group) Step 5: Calculate Total Fertility Rte (TFR) Formula for TFR is 3 (SFR) xn 1, Calculations: Age group (in Female No.of live births SFR years) population ina year 16-19 16,000 400 25 20-24 15,000 1,700 113.38 25-29 14,000 2,100 150 30-34 13,000 1,430 110 35—39 12,000 960 80 40-44 11,000 330 30 goes) 9,000 36 4 Given that total population of the city = 3,00,000 i i ‘Total live births = 1,000 © Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = feat population * 1 6,956 300,000 * 100 = 23.18667 (ii) General Fertility Rate (GFR) Total live births Total number of women in the child bearing ages” 1°00 = 77.28889 (iii) Specific Fertility Rates (SFR) = ——__—__Number oflive births © Number of women (for a particular age group) ‘Thus SFR for the age-group 15—19 is 25 ete. (iv) Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = (SFR) x 5 = 512,33333 x 5 = 2,561.66665 2,561.66665 000 = 2.56166665 * TER per women will be Inference : (@) CBR = 2318667 (ii) GFR = 77.28889 (ii) SFR values in column 4 (iv) TFR = 2,561.66665

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