E P R J O U R N A L H 2 ' 2 0 2 3

Climate Change and Food

Security in Nigeria
Risikat Dauda, Ph.D.
Faculty Member, NESG Non-Residential Fellowship Programme

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 Abstract
The alarming rate of incidences of floods, drought, ocean heat, changes in snow and rainfall
patterns, heavy rainstorms, increased frequency of heavy precipitation, depleting soil nutrients,
and dwindling environmental quality indicates that climate change can cause severe risks to food
security and nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. With all the pieces of evidence of climate change,
only one percent of total arable land is equipped for irrigation in Nigeria. This study examines
the impact of climate change on food security and nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. The study
showed the country’s readiness to tackle climate change and its vulnerability to climate change.
The devastating impact of climate change on agricultural productivity, food insecurity, the number
of people undernourished, and the average protein and dietary energy supply were revealed. The
extent of climate change impact was reported alongside relevant policy directions to tackle climate
change and reduce the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria.

Introduction
Healthy and well-nourished people are the primary focus of sustainable development; therefore,
food security is essential for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Food security focuses on ensuring that people have consistent access to safe, nutritious, and
sufficient food for a healthy life. The dimensions of food security include adequate food utilization,
physical and economic access to food, and the physical availability of food. Food security is an
important global concern, interconnected with various factors, including climate change, nutrition,
health, and socio-economic issues like insufficient food production, corruption, and gender
inequality.

According to FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO (2017, 2018, 2019), the three factors responsible
for food crisis include crisis (internal or external), national economy, and climate. Climate change
poses significant challenges worldwide, leading to rising temperatures, sea levels, droughts, etc.
Climate change refers to the degree of change in the mean variable properties of the climate over
a period of time, usually one or two decades or longer. Nigeria, in particular, faces environmental
challenges exacerbated by climate change, impacting sectors like infrastructure, water resources,
and agriculture. Deforestation, desertification, erosion, and floods further degrade the environment,
limiting access to safe water and sanitation for many Nigerians.

Climate change is primarily driven by human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) from industries, agriculture, and transportation. GHGs like carbon dioxide and methane
trap heat in the atmosphere, causing global warming. While GHGs are essential for maintaining a
habitable Earth, human-induced emissions have erupted this balance, leading to adverse effects,
including altered precipitation patterns and melting ice sheets. These climate changes negatively
affect crop yields, contributing to agricultural losses, soil infertility, and droughts. This threatens
food security, environmental health, and nutrition, leading to global concerns and initiatives like the
Paris Agreement adopted by 196 countries at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris,
France, in 2015. COP21 came into force in November 2016. The most recent tagged COP27 was
held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, between November 6 and November 20, 2022.

In Nigeria, food security is influenced by internal and external crises, economic factors, and climate
change. The country experiences visible effects of climate change, particularly in the northern and
southern regions, which impact agricultural productivity. Alterations in humidity, temperature,

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 E P R J O U R N A L H 2 ' 2 0 2 3

rainfall patterns, and heavy precipitation have led to low agricultural productivity, poverty, hunger,
and conflicts. These challenges result in food scarcity, malnutrition, health issues, and rising food
prices. Food scarcity has led to malnutrition and incessant health challenges, especially for children.
Efforts are being made at international conferences and initiatives to address these issues and
ensure food security in the face of climate change.

Stylized Facts
Table 1: Access to safe drinking water and proper sanitation
Indicator/Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

People using safely 13.67 14.08 14.48 14.88 15.28 15.68 16.07 16.47 16.86 17.25 17.65
managed drinking
water services, rural
(percent of rural
population)

People using safely 17.93 18.32 18.72 19.10 19.48 19.86 20.23 20.60 20.96 21.3` 21.66
managed drinking
water services (percent
of the population)

People using safely 23.46 23.65 23.84 24.03 24.23 24.42 24.61 24.80 25.00 25.19 25.38
managed drinking
water services, urban
(percent of urban
population)

People using safely 25.07 25.55 26.05 26.56 27.08 27.62 28.17 28.73 29.31 29.90 30.50
managed sanitation
services (percent of the
population)

The ND-GAIN Index assesses countries’ vulnerability to climate change and readiness to enhance
resilience. Nigeria is ranked 160 out of 181 countries, indicating its vulnerability to climate change
impacts. In this index, lower scores signify higher vulnerability, while higher scores indicate greater
readiness. Regarding access to safe drinking water services, rural areas in Nigeria saw a slight
increase from 13.67 percent in 2010 to 17.65 percent in 2020, with minimal progress between
2015 and 2020 (see Table 1). However, the overall percentage of people with safely managed
drinking water services only increased by 3.73 percent over the decade, lagging behind other lower-
middle-income countries like Ecuador, Egypt, Cambodia, Indonesia, Iran, and Morocco. Similarly,
the percentage of people with safely managed sanitation services only increased by 5.43 percent
from 2010 to 2020.

Nigeria is characterized by three district climate zones: Sahelian hot and semi-arid climate in the
northern part of the country, a tropical savannah climate in most of the central regions, and a
tropical wet climate in the south. As a result, Nigeria is among the countries highly vulnerable to
climate change compared to countries like Cape Verde, Cameroon, South Africa, Morocco, and
Egypt (Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, 2023). In addition, between 2000 and 2002, the
prevalence of undernourishment was 8.90 percent in Nigeria. However, from 2012 till date, the
prevalence of undernourishment has witnessed a steady increase in Nigeria, with over 26 million
people estimated to be undernourished in 2021.

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 Figure 1: Selected Indicators of the Prevalence of Severe Food Insecurity
70.00

58.5
60.00
53.5

50.00 47.1
42.8
38.7
40.00 34.7
31.0 31.7
27.3 28.0 26.6 26.5 27.8
30.00 26.2
24.1 23.2
20.4 20.2 19.1
20.00 17.3
13.6 15.1
11.0 12.3
10.00

0.00
2014 - 2016 2015 - 2017 2016 - 2018 2017 - 2019 2018 - 2020 2019 - 20121

Prevalenve of severe food insecurity in the total populatio (%) Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the male population (%)
Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the female population (%) Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the total population (%)

Source: FAO (2023)

Figure 1 presents data on severe food insecurity indicators in Nigeria. The overall prevalence
of severe food insecurity in the total population steadily increased from 2014 to 2021. Notably,
severe food insecurity among males increased from 24.10 percent (2014-2016) to 31.03 percent
(2019-2021), while among females, it fluctuated but increased to 31.70 percent (2019-2020). The
prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population also rose significantly from
34.70 percent (2014-2016) to 58.50 percent (2019-2021). Research also showed that the number
of severely food insecure people in millions nearly doubled between 2014-2016 and 2019-2021,
possibly due to climate change’s adverse effects on agriculture. Male adults initially recorded higher
numbers of food insecurity but were surpassed by female adults from 2018 onwards.

Figure 2: Arable Land for Irrigation, Cereal Import, Food Import, and Supply of Protein
16 30

14
25

Average supply of protein of 12

animal origin (g/cap/day) (3-year 20
average) 10
Percent of arable land equipped
for irrigation (percent) (3-year 8 15
average)
Value of food imports in total 6
10
merchandise exports (percent) (3-
year average) 4
Cereal import dependency ratio 5
(percent) (3-year average) 2

0 0
2000 - 2002
2001 - 2003
2002 - 2004
2003 - 2005
2004 - 2006
2005 - 2007
2006 - 2008
2007 - 2009
2008 - 2010
2009 - 2011
2010 - 2012
2011 - 2013
2012 - 2014
2013 - 2015
2014 - 2016
2015 - 2017
2016 - 2018
2017 - 2019
2018 - 2020

Source: FAO (2023)

According to FAO (2019), the average protein supply has dwindled since 2007. The average dietary
energy supply has not improved since 2010. However, the share of dietary supply derived from
cereals, roots, and tubers has only increased slightly. Figure 2 shows a decline in the average supply
of animal-origin protein and limited attention to climate change and food security, as reflected by
low arable land equipped for irrigation. Food imports increased from 2012 to 2014, but the cereal
import dependency ratio started declining after peaking in 2011.

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Identified Challenges
Climate change has led to environmental challenges, affecting agricultural activities, resulting in
lower productive outputs and food insecurity in Nigeria. Climate change has contributed to the
low food quality and nutritional composition of food crops, exposing people to harmful products
and causing permanent health issues. Non-renewable energy sources in Nigeria trigger carbon
emissions, exposing crops to toxic gases, reducing crop quality, and causing health issues. In all,
some of the identified challenges posed by climate change on food security in Nigeria include:
• The Alteration of Planting and Harvesting Seasons: Climate change in Nigeria has caused
variations in rainfall and sunshine patterns, particularly in the northern region where agriculture
is the main economic activity. These changes have affected crop planting and harvesting
seasons, leading to crop scarcity and unavailability, increasing food prices, and severe food
insecurity.
• Decrease in Crop Yield: Climate change in Nigeria has caused variations in rainfall and
sunshine patterns, particularly in the northern region, where agriculture is the main economic
activity. These changes have affected crop planting and harvesting seasons, leading to crop
scarcity and unavailability, increasing food prices, and severe food insecurity.
• Increased Pest: Climate change in Nigeria has led to an increase in pest breeding, affecting
animals and food crops, causing undernourishment and food insecurity due to the evolution of
different pest species.
• Influence on Livestock: Climate change threatens livestock, leading to persistent heatwaves
and animal loss. High temperatures, a result of carbon emissions, increase livestock vulnerability
to diseases and reduce fertility. Drought worsens food insecurity, as livestock reliant on foliage
may endure more prolonged periods of undernutrition.
• Flooding of Farmlands: Rising sea levels and heavy rainfall caused flooding in Nigeria,
particularly in the South-South and South-East regions. This leads to species loss, uncultivable
farmlands, and disruption of agricultural activities, affecting agricultural produce.
• High demands for Irrigation: Climate change affects precipitation frequency and intensity by
increasing the amount of water evaporated into the air, leading to more intense snow and
heavy rain. However, it can also lower rainfall levels, as seen in the Sudan and Sahel savanna
belts. This has increased irrigation costs, resulting in higher food prices and forced closures for
farmers who cannot afford it. This could lead to food shortages.

Policy Options
Climate change impacts Nigeria's food security and nutritional outcomes, prompting a
comprehensive strategy to address root causes. The following policies are proposed to enhance
food security and improve nutritional outcomes.
• Legislative policies should promote environmentally friendly practices, encourage waste
management and energy efficiency, and support environmental policies. Prohibiting
anthropogenic activities like deforestation, gas flaring, and over-exploration of natural resources
is crucial. Effective climate legislation supports conservative practices like recycling and
minimizes human-induced factors driving climate change.
• Research in natural and climatological sciences should focus on developing animal and crop
varieties with short maturity periods that can withstand reduced rainfall and extreme
temperatures, ensuring food security and sustainable nutritional outcomes.
• Adopting agricultural methods or smart food systems that are less vulnerable and resistant to
climate change is crucial for promoting food security and sustainable nutritional outcomes.

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 • The government and stakeholders should promote alternative practices like recharging
shrinking water bodies and irrigation in the Sahel and Sudan Savannah region to boost
agricultural productivity and reduce food prices.
• Propagating drought-resistant grasses in drought-affected areas can reduce pastoral migration
patterns in Nigeria, reduce farmers-herdsmen conflicts, and ensure peace and security for
middle-belt and other regions.

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