Republic of the Philippines

BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY

The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

Quiz 2
MGT303 – OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT with TQM
First Semester, AY 2024 – 2025

Name: Score:
Section and SR-code: Date:

GENERAL DIRECTIONS:
Take the time to thoroughly understand the problem. Provide what is asked and show your
solution for each item. Work independently. Do not communicate with other students during the
exam. For the computing device, ONLY calculators are allowed.
Any form of cheating or plagiarism will result in severe consequences.
If time allows, review your answers. Ensure that your solutions are clear, and double-check for
any calculation errors. Correct conclusions with clear and justified solutions shall receive
corresponding points, otherwise, no point shall be given.
ENCLOSE OR HIGHLIGHT YOUR FINAL ANSWER.

PROBLEM SOLVING

1. Centered Moving Average and Weighted Moving Average 10 pts

A company tracks its monthly sales for the past 10 months. The data is as follows:

Month Sales
January ₱45,000
February ₱50,000
March ₱48,000
April ₱52,000
May ₱47,000
June ₱53,000
July ₱55,000
August ₱60,000
September ₱58,000
October ₱65,000

a. Calculate the 3-month centered moving average for the data and forecast the sales
on November. (5pts)
b. Using weights of W1=0.6, W2=0.2 and W3=0.1
Where:
W1 is for the most recent month
W2 is for the next recent month
W3 is for the next least recent month
Forecast the sales next month. (5pts)

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

2. Least Square Method 15 pts

A company that produces customized printed t-shirts has recorded its monthly sales
data over the last six months. The management wants to forecast the demand for the
upcoming months to better plan its production and inventory. The sales data are as follows:

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sales (units) 150 170 160 180 200 190

a. Determine the trend equation in the form y = a + bx. (10pts)

b. Forecast the sales in the 7th month. (2.5pts)
c. Forecast the sales in the 10th month. (2.5pts)

3. Seasonal Index 15 pts

A sportswear manufacturer wishes to use data from a 5-year period to develop

seasonal indexes. Trend values and ratios of actual A to trend T for most months have
already been computed as shown in Table 1. April and May actual and trend values are
shown in Table 2 and 3 below. Determine the resulting seasonal indexes.
Table 1
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Actual Trend Ratio 0.72 0.58 0.85 1.43 1.21 1.05 0.98 0.92 0.88 1.12

Table 2
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
April actual 382 401 458 480 533
April trend 400 436 472 508 544 500
April Actual Trend Ratio 0.96 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.98

Table 3
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
May actual 485 530 560 592 656
May trend 403 439 475 511 547 600
May Actual Trend Ratio 1.20 1.21 1.18 1.16 1.20

a. Determine the actual trend ratio for the month of April. (5pts)
b. Determine the actual trend ratio for the month of May. (5pts)
c. Determine the expected sales for the Year 6 in the month of April. (2.5pts)
d. Determine the expected sales for the Year 6 in the month of May (2.5pts)

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

4. Exponential Smoothing 10 pts

A university registrar has adopted a simple exponential smoothing model (a = 0.4) to

forecast enrolments during the three regular terms (excluding summer). The results are
shown in the Table below. The forecast for the first quarter of year 1 is 20000.

Year Quarter Actual Enrolment

1st 20500
1 2nd 21000
3rd 19120
1st 20060
2 2nd 22000
3rd

a. Use the data to develop an enrolment forecast for the third quarter of year 2. (10pts)

5. Regression and Correlation 20 pts

Kim’s Underground System installs septic systems for new houses constructed outside the
city limits. To help forecast her demand, Ms. Kim has collected the data of the number of
country building permits issued per month, along with the corresponding number of bid
requests she has received over a 15-month period.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
No. of Building Permits (X) 8 20 48 60 55 58 50 45 34 38 10 5 12 29 50
No. of Bid Requests (Y) 20 7 8 4 18 40 48 54 47 42 30 22 10 4 3

a. Determine the trend equation of regression in the form of y = a + bx. (10pts)

b. Compute the simple correlation coefficient r between the number of building permits
issued and the number of bid requests. (5pts)
c. If there would be 70 building permits, how many Bid Requests are to be expected? (5pts)

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

6. Forecasting Control 10 pts

A beverage company specializing in ready-to-drink coffee products has been

experiencing fluctuating weekly demand for its products. The company is committed to
optimizing its supply chain and production schedules but is struggling with inaccurate
demand forecasting.

Over the past 10 weeks, the company tracked actual demand for its products and
compared it with the forecasted demand generated by its current prediction model. The data
collected is as follows

Week Actual Demand Forecast

1 4000 4500
2 4200 5000
3 4200 4000
4 3000 3800
5 3800 3600
6 5000 4000
7 5600 5000
8 4400 4800
9 5000 4000
10 4800 5000

a. Compute for the Mean Absolute Deviation. (5pts)

b. The product has a tracking-signal-action limit of 4. Compute the tracking signal, and
indicate whether some corrective action is appropriate. (5pts)

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

ANSWER SHEET
1. Moving Average

Answer:
a. _____________
b. _____________

Month Sales
January ₱45,000
February ₱50,000
March ₱48,000
April ₱52,000
May ₱47,000
June ₱53,000
July ₱55,000
August ₱60,000
September ₱58,000
October ₱65,000

Solution:

2. Least Square Method

Answer:
a. _____________
b. _____________
c. _____________

Month (n) Sales (y)

Solution:

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

3. Seasonal Index

Answer:
a. _____________
b. _____________
c. _____________
d. _____________

Table 1
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Actual Trend Ratio 0.72 0.58 0.85 1.43 1.21 1.05 0.98 0.92 0.88 1.12

Table 2
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
April actual 382 401 458 480 533
April trend 400 436 472 508 544 500
April Actual Trend Ratio 0.96 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.98

Table 3
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
May actual 485 530 560 592 656
May trend 403 439 475 511 547 600
May Actual Trend Ratio 1.20 1.21 1.18 1.16 1.20

Solution:

4. Exponential Smoothing

Answer:
a. _____________

Year Quarter Actual Enrolment Old Forecast Forecast Error Correction New Forecast
1st 20500
1 2nd 21000
3rd 19120
1st 20060
2 2nd 22000
3rd

Solution:

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

5. Regression and Correlation

Answer:
a. _____________
b. _____________
c. _____________

n X Y
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Total

Solution:

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation

 Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
The National Engineering University
Pablo Borbon Campus
Rizal Avenue Ext., Batangas City, Batangas, Philippines 4200
Tel Nos.: (+63 43) 406-8800 / (+63 43) 779 – 8400 loc. 1124
E-mail Address: [email protected] | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Accountancy, Business, Economics and International Hospitality Management

6. Forecasting Control

Answer:
a. _____________
b. _____________
c. _____________

Week Actual Demand Forecast

1 4000 4500
2 4200 5000
3 4200 4000
4 3000 3800
5 3800 3600
6 5000 4000
7 5600 5000
8 4400 4800
9 5000 4000
10 4800 5000
Total :

Solution:

Wala pang motivational quotes ngayon, sa finals na lang.

Leading Innovations, Transforming Lives, Building the Nation