Chapter 6

Hypothesis Testing
By the end of this lesson, the student is expected to:

1. Perform the steps in hypothesis testing

2. Formulate the null and alternative hypothesis
3. Apply the different inferential statistical tests for various problems in the chosen
field.
4. Analyze problems with one population case.
5. Distinguish between a one-tailed and a two-tailed test of hypothesis.
6. Make correct conclusions and interpretations based on the results of the test.

Lesson 6.1 : Hypothesis Testing.

The method in which we select samples to learn more about characteristics in a given
population is called hypothesis testing.

Hypothesis testing is really a systematic way to test claims or ideas about a group or
population.

Illustration:

Suppose we read an article stating that housewives in the Philippines watch at an average
of 3 hours of teleserye on TV per day. To test whether this claim is true, we record the
time (in hours) that a group of 20 housewives (the sample), among all housewives in the
Philippines (the population), watch teleserye on TV. The mean we measure for these 20
housewives is a sample mean. We can then compare the sample mean we select to the
population mean stated in the article.

Hypothesis testing or significance testing is a method for testing a claim or hypothesis

about a parameter in a population, using data measured in a sample. In this method, we
test some hypothesis by determining the likelihood that a sample statistic could have been
selected, if the hypothesis regarding the population parameter were true. The method of
hypothesis testing can be summarized in the following steps.

Steps in Hypothesis Testing

1. State the null ( ) and alternative ( ) hypotheses.

 The alternative hypothesis can be directional (one-tailed) or non-directional
(two-tailed).
2. Specify the level of significance, ( ).
3. Identify the appropriate test statistic and testing procedure.
4. Compute for the value of the test statistic using the sample data.
5. Make a decision on :
a) If decision rule is based on region of rejection: Check if the test statistic falls in
the region of rejection. If yes, reject Ho.
b) If decision rule is based on p-value: Determine the p-value. If the p-value is
less than or equal to , reject Ho.
6. Interpret results.

The Two Types of Statistical Hypotheses Are The Following:

I. Null Hypothesis
 Denoted by
 The statement being tested
 It represents what the experimenter doubts to be true
 Must contain the condition of equality and must be written with the symbol
=, ≤ , or ≥.

For the mean, the null hypothesis will be stated in one of these three possible
forms:

 : =
 : ≤
 : ≥

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 Note: the value of can be obtained from previous studies or from knowledge
of the population.

Example of Null Hypothesis

 For the housewives watching teleserye example, we state the null
hypothesis that housewives in the Philippines watch an average of 3 hours
of teleserye per day.
: =3ℎ
II. Alternative Hypothesis
 Denoted by .
 Is the statement that must be true if the null hypothesis is false.
 the operational statement of the theory that the experimenter believes to
be true and wishes to prove.
 Is sometimes referred to as the research hypothesis.

For the mean, the alternative hypothesis will be stated in one of these three
possible forms:

 : ≠
 : >
 : <

Note: Ha is the opposite of Ho.

Example of Alternative Hypothesis

 For the housewives watching teleserye example, we may have reason to
believe that housewives watch more than (>) or less than (<) 3 hours of TV
per day. When we are uncertain of the direction, we can state that the value
in the null hypothesis is not equal to (≠) 3 hours

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 : ≠3ℎ .
Note About Using ≤ or ≥ in :
 Even though we sometimes express with the symbol ≤ or ≥
as in : ≤3ℎ or : ≥3ℎ , we conduct the test by
assuming that : =3ℎ is true.
 We must have a single fixed value for so that we can work with
a single distribution having a specific mean.

Note About Stating Your Own Hypotheses:

 If you are conducting a research study and you want to use a hypothesis
test to support your claim, the claim must be stated in such a way that it
becomes the alternative hypothesis, so it cannot contain the condition of
equality.

Example. If you believe that your brand of LED bulb lasts longer than the mean of 10
years for other brands, state the claim that > 10, where is the mean life of your LED
bulb.

: = 10 vs. : > 10

Research Problem

Example.

Suppose that the government is deciding whether to approve the manufacturing of a new
drug. A drug is to be tested to find out if it can dissolve cholesterol deposits in the heart’s
arteries. A major cause of heart diseases is the hardening of the arteries caused by the
accumulation of cholesterol. The Bureau of Food and Drug (BFAD) will not allow the
marketing of the drug unless there is strong evidence that it is effective.

A random sample of 98 middle-aged men has been selected for the experiment. Each
man is given a standard daily dosage of the drug for 2 consecutive weeks. Their

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cholesterol levels are measured at the beginning and at the end of the test. The interest
is to determine if the intake of the drug lead to reduced cholesterol levels; that is, a
hypothesis test will have to be performed to determine if the drug is effective or not. Based
on the results of the experiment, the director of BFAD will decide whether to release the
drug to the public or postpone its release and request for more research.

To perform a statistical hypothesis test, we must firstly identify the parameter of interest,
and have some educated guess about the true value of the parameter. In the case of the
BFAD example, the possible states of the drug’s effectiveness are referred to as
hypotheses. Because the director wants only to know whether it is effective or not, either
of the following hypotheses applies.

 The drug is ineffective.

 The drug is effective.

To measure the effectiveness of the drug for each middle-aged man, we can look at the
percent change in cholesterol levels experienced by all middle-aged men who took the
drug before and after they took the drug.

We summarize effectiveness in terms of the population mean. Let be the population

mean of the percent change in cholesterol levels. BFAD decides to classify the drug as
effective only if, on the average, it reduces the cholesterol levels by more than 30% ( >
30%).

State the Null Hypothesis ( ) and Alternative Hypothesis ( )

The null hypothesis represents no practical change in cholesterol levels before and after
the drug use. In terms of  , we say

: ≤ 30%.

: > 30%

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Whenever sample results fail to support the null hypothesis, the conclusion we accept is
the alternative hypothesis. In our illustration, if results from the sample of percentage
change in cholesterol levels fail to support Ho, then the director concludes and says
that the drug is effective.

What is a Test of Significance?

 A test of significance is a problem of deciding between the null and the

alternative hypotheses based on the information contained in a random sample.
 The goal will be to reject in favor of , because the alternative is the hypothesis
that the researcher believes to be true. If we are successful in rejecting , we
then declare the results to be “significant”.

Two Types of Errors

 Type I Error
o The mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.
o It is not a miscalculation or procedural misstep; it is an actual error that can
occur when a rare event happens by chance.
o The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is called the
significance level ( ).
o The value of is typically predetermined, and very common choices are
= 0.05 and = 0.01.

 Type II Error
o The mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false.
o The symbol (beta) is used to represent the probability of a type II error.

Examples of Type I Errors

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 o The mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis that the mean life of your LED
bulb = 10 years, when the mean is really 10 years.
o BFAD allows the release of an ineffective medicine

Examples of Type I Errors

o The mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis that the mean life of your
LED bulb = 10 years, when it is actually false ( i.e., the mean is not 10
years).
o BFAD does not allow the release of an effective medicine.

Summary of Possible Decisions in Hypothesis Testing

True Situation

The null hypothesis The null hypothesis

is true. is false.
TYPE I error CORRECT
Decision We decide to reject
(rejecting a true null decision
the null hypothesis.
hypothesis)
CORRECT TYPE II error
We fail to reject the (failing to reject
decision a false null
null hypothesis.
hypothesis)

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Controlling Type I and Type II Errors

o The experimenter is free to determine . If the test leads to the rejection of Ho,
the researcher can then conclude that there is sufficient evidence supporting
at  level of significance.
o Usually,  is unknown because it’s hard to calculate it. The common solution to
this difficulty is to “withhold judgment” if the test leads to the failure to reject .
o  and  are inversely related. For a fixed sample size , as  decreases 
increases.
o In almost all statistical tests, both  and  can be reduced by increasing the
sample size.
o Because of the inverse relationship of  and , setting a very small  should also
be avoided if the researcher cannot afford a very large risk of committing a Type
II error.
o The choice of  usually depends on the consequences associated with making a
Type I error.
Common Choices of  Consequences of
Type I error
0.01 or smaller very serious
0.05 moderately serious
0.10 not too serious

o The usual practice in research and industry is to determine in advance the values
of  and , so the value of  is determined.
o Depending on the seriousness of a type I error, try to use the largest  that
you can tolerate.
o For type I errors with more serious consequences, select smaller values of  .
Then choose a sample size as large as is reasonable, based on considerations
of time, cost, and other such relevant factors.

The Test Statistic - a statistic computed from the sample data that is especially
sensitive to the differences between and .

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 o The test statistic should tend to take on certain values when is true and
different values when is true.
o The decision to reject depends on the value of the test statistic.
o A decision rule based on the value of the test statistic:
Reject if the computed value of the test statistic falls in the region of rejection.

Region of Rejection or Critical Region- the set of all values of the test statistic which
will lead to the rejection of .

Factors that Determine the Region of Rejection

o the behavior of the test statistic if the null hypotheses were true.
o the alternative hypothesis: the location of the region of rejection depends on the
form of .
o level of significance (): the smaller  is, the smaller the region of rejection.

Critical Value/s

o the value or values that separate the critical region from the values of the test
statistic that would not lead to rejection of the null hypothesis.
o It depends on the nature of the null hypothesis, the relevant sampling distribution,
and the level of significance.

Types of Tests

o Two-tailed Test. If we are primarily concerned with deciding whether the true
value of a population parameter is different from a specified value, then the test
should be two-tailed. For the case of the mean, we say : ≠ .
o Left-tailed Test. If we are primarily concerned with deciding whether the true
value of a parameter is less than a specified value, then the test should be left-
tailed. For the case of the proportion, we say : < .
o Right-tailed Test. If we are primarily concerned with deciding whether the true
value of a parameter is greater than a specified value, then we should use the
right-tailed test. For the case of the standard deviation, we say : > .

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Level of Significance and the Rejection Region

Rejection 0 Critical
Region Value(s)

: =

: <

Rejection
Region 

: =

: >

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 /2

0
: =

: ≠

The − ue - the smallest level of significance at which will be rejected based on

the information contained in the sample.

An Alternative Form of Decision Rule (based on the − )

Reject if the − is less than or equal to the level of significance ().

Example. If the level of significance  = 0.05:

− Decision

0.01 Reject .

0.05 Reject .

0.10 Do not reject .

Conclusions in Hypothesis Testing

1. Fail to reject the null hypothesis .

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 2. Reject the null hypothesis .

Notes:

o Some texts say, “accept the null hypothesis” instead of “fail to reject the null
hypothesis.”
o Whether we use the term accept or fail to reject, we should recognize that we are
not proving the null hypothesis; we are merely saying that the sample evidence is
not strong enough to warrant rejection of the null hypothesis.

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STATISTICS PSAU 2020 A.P.MENDOZA
Lesson 6.2: One Population Case

Test Concerning the Population Mean

: =

(where is a specified value of the population mean)

Table 6.1 Test Concerning the Population Mean

Test Statistic Region of Rejection

Case 1: < <−

̅− > >
=
√
≠ <− & >

Case 1: < <− ( , )

̅− > >
= ( , )

√
≠ <− & >
( , ) ( , )

= −1

The above tests are exact -level tests for samples from a normal distribution. However,
they provide good approximate -level test when the distribution is not normal provided
that the sample size is > 30.

If is unknown and > 30, use the Z-test but replace  by , that is,

̅−
=
√

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Note: tabulated z-values for the common choices of 

 0.01 0.05 0.10

2.33 1.645 1.28

2.576 1.96 1.645

z-test

Example 1. (One Tail Test)

Does an average box of cereal contain more than 368 grams of cereal? A random
sample of 25 boxes showed ̅ = 372.5. The company has specified to be 15
grams. Test at the = 0.05 level.

Solution:

Step 1. State the null & alternative hypotheses

: = 368

: > 368

Step 2. Specify the level of significance. The level of significance is 0.05.

Step 3. Identify the test statistics. Because we know the population standard deviation
, the test statistics is z-test.

Step 4. Compute for the value of the test statistic.

̅− 372.5 − 368
= = = 1.5
15
√ √25

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Step 5. Make a decision on .

Note: Critical value: ±1.645

The computed z of 1.5 < Critical z of 1.645

= 1.5 < = 1.645

Fail to reject at = 0.05

Step 6. Interpret results.

Conclusion: There is no sufficient sample evidence to support that the true mean is
more than 368 grams.

Example 2. (Two-Tail Test)

Does an average box of cereal contain 368 grams of cereal? A random sample of 25
boxes showed ̅ = 372.5. The company has specified to be 15 grams. Test at the
= 0.05 level.

Solution:

Step 1. State the null & alternative hypotheses

: = 368

: ≠ 368

Step 2. Specify the level of significance. The level of significance is 0.05.

Step 3. Identify the test statistics. Because we know the population standard deviation
, the test statistics is Z-test.

Step 4. Compute for the value of the test statistic.

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 ̅− 372.5 − 368
= = = 1.5
15
√ √25

Step 5. Make a decision on .

Note: Critical value: ±1.96

The computed z of 1.5 < Critical z of 1.96

= 1.5 < = 1.96

Fail to reject at = 0.05

Step 6. Interpret results.

Conclusion: There is no sufficient sample evidence to support that the true mean is
more than 368 grams.

t -Test

Example 3. (One-Tail)

Does an average box of cereal contain more than 368 grams of cereal? A random
sample of 36 boxes showed ̅ = 372.5 and = 15 grams. Test at the = 0.01
level.

Solution

Note: is not given.

Step 1. State the null & alternative hypotheses

: = 368

: > 368

Step 2. Specify the level of significance. The level of significance is 0.01.

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Step 3. Identify the test statistics. Because we know that the population standard
deviation is not given, the test statistics is t-test.

Step 4. Compute for the value of the test statistic.

̅− 372.5 − 368
= = = 1.80
15
√ √36

Step 5. Make a decision on .

= 0.01; = 36, = 35

Note: Critical value: 2.4377

The computed t of 1.80 < Critical value of t= 2.4377

= 1.80 < = 2.4377

Fail to reject at = 0.01

Step 6. Interpret results.

Conclusion: There is no sufficient sample evidence to support that the true mean is
more than 368 grams.

Example 4.

Cooking oils that are low in both cholesterol and saturated fats are often recommended
for people who are trying to lower their blood cholesterol level or to lose weight. Many
cooking oils that have no cholesterol still have saturated fat contents of 6% to 18%.
Cooking oil made from soybeans has been advertised as containing 15% saturated fats.
A dietitian thinks that the percentage of saturated fats is greater than 15% and randomly
selects 13 bottles of soybean cooking oil for testing. These bottles contain the following
percentages of saturated fats:

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 15.2 12.4 15.4 13.5 15.9 17.1 20.0

16.9 14.3 19.1 18.2 15.5 16.3

On the basis of this sample, can the dietitian conclude that the level of saturated fats in
cooking oil made from soybeans is greater than 15% at 0.01 level of significance?
(Assume that the population is normally distributed.)

What would happen if instead of taking a sample of size 13, the dietitian takes a sample
of size 39? Include the following additional observations in the original data set and test
the same hypotheses at 0.01 level of significance.

15.2 12.4 15 13.5 15.9 17.1 20.0 16.9 14.3

19.1 18.2 15.5 16.3 15.2 12.4 15.4 13.5 15.9

17.1 20.0 16.9 14.3 19.1 18.2 15.5 16.3

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 PhStat Output

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References and Supplementary Materials
The main reference materials for the course are the following:

 Aufmann, R., et. al. (2013). Mathematical Excursion 3rd Ed. Cengage Learning.
California, USA
 Gosioco, E. S. et al. (2015). Fundamentals of Statistics. Pampanga, Philippines

Online Supplementary Reading Material

http://onlinestatbook.com/2/summarizing_distributions/variability.html

https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_introductory-statistics/s06-03-measures-
of-variability.html

Suggested Reading Materials

 Morales, L. & Gosioco, E. (2015) Fundamentals of Statistics A Worktext-1st

Edition. St. Andrew Publishing House.

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