SOLUTION TO EXAM 1

1. 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 0.2 𝑃(𝐵′ ) = 0.3 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ ) = 0.1

𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ ) = 𝑃(𝐴′ ) + 𝑃(𝐵′ ) − 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ )

𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ ) = 0.2 + 0.3 − 0.1 = 0.4

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′ ) = 0.6

2. 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 = 𝑟, 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 = 17 − 𝑟

33
𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) =
68

𝑟 𝑟 − 1 17 − 𝑟 16 − 𝑟 33
∗ + ∗ =
17 16 17 16 68

2𝑟 2 − 41𝑟 + 140 = 0

𝑟 = 7, 10

𝐵𝑢𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑔.

∴ 𝑟 = 10

3. 𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 16 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑑, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙 1, 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙 2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙 3

𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 2, 4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 10 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑦. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙

𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑘𝑒 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑖𝑠:

𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙1) + 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙2) + 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙3)

2 1 4 3 10 9 104
= ∗ + ∗ + ∗ =
16 15 16 15 16 15 240
4. 𝑃(𝑀) = 0.65 𝑃(𝐹) = 0.35

𝑃(𝐶/𝑀) = 0.05 𝑃(𝐵/𝑀) = 0.7

𝑃(𝐶/𝐹) = 0.75 𝑃(𝐵/𝐹) = 0.1

𝑃(𝐵/𝐹) ∗ 𝑃(𝐹)
𝑃(𝐹/𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

𝐵𝑢𝑡 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵/𝑀) ∗ 𝑃(𝑀) + 𝑃(𝐵/𝐹) ∗ 𝑃(𝐹) = 0.49

0.1 ∗ 0.35
𝑃(𝐹/𝐵) = = 0.071
0.49

5. 𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐻 = 𝐴 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑦 − 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑔𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐿 = 𝐴 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 − 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑔𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑁 = 𝐴 𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑛𝑜𝑛 − 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑔𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃(𝐻) = 0.2 𝑃(𝐿) = 0.3 𝑃(𝐻) = 0.5

𝑃(𝐷/𝐿) = 2𝑃(𝐷/𝑁)

𝑃(𝐷/𝐿) = 0.5𝑃(𝐷/𝐻)

𝑃(𝐷/𝐻) ∗ 𝑃(𝐻)
𝑃(𝐻/𝐷) =
𝑃(𝐷)

𝐵𝑢𝑡 𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐷/𝐻) ∗ 𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐷/𝐿) ∗ 𝑃(𝐿) + 𝑃(𝐷/𝑁) ∗ 𝑃(𝑁)

= 𝑃(𝐷/𝐻) ∗ 𝑃(𝐻) + 0.5𝑃(𝐷/𝐻) ∗ 𝑃(𝐿) + 0.25(𝐷/𝐻) ∗ 𝑃(𝑁)

𝑃(𝐷/𝐻) ∗ 𝑃(𝐻) 0.2

𝑃(𝐻/𝐷) = =
𝑃(𝐷) 0.475

𝑃(𝐻/𝐷) = 0.42
 1 𝑥 2 8−𝑥
6. ∑8𝑥=0 (8 ) ( ) ( )
𝑥 3 3

𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛,

𝑛
(𝑎 + 𝑏)𝑛 = ∑𝑛𝑥=0 ( ) ( 𝑎)𝑥 (𝑏)𝑛−𝑥
𝑥

𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜,

1 2 8
( + ) =1
3 3

7. 𝐼𝑓 𝐴 ⊆ 𝐵, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛

𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 𝑃(𝐵)
a. 𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝒂, 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒
b. 𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵), 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝒃, 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒
c. 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′ ) 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝐴 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝐵,
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′ ) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴)
d. 𝑃(𝐵′ ∩ 𝐴) 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝐵 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝐵,
𝑃(𝐵′ ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝒅, 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒.

8. 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.6 𝑃(𝐻) = 0.3 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐻) = 0.2

𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐻′) = 𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐴) − 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐻)

1
𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐻′) =
2

9. 𝐴𝑛𝑠 = 𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 (𝑆): 𝑡ℎ𝑒 5000 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑑
10. 𝑃(𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑠𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛) = 0.02 ∗ 0.95 + 0.05 ∗ 0.98 = 0.068

𝑃(𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 20𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)

= 1 − 𝑃(𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 20𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)

𝑃(𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑡 20𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠)

20
= ( ) ∗ 0.0680 ∗ (1 − 0.068)20 = 0.2445
0

1 − 0.2445 = 0.7555 = 0.76

11. 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑎 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒, 𝑖𝑡 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑜𝑟
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛.

12. 𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑒
𝐹𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒, 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑠𝑒𝑡 {1, 2 ,3}. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑖𝑠 2
3

∑(𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋̅) = (1 − 2) + (2 − 2) + (3 − 2) = 0
𝑖=1

13. 𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑛 𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑒) + 𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑎 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠)
1 20 5
= ∗ =
2 52 26
14. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑉𝑒𝑛𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑏𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛

A B

0.15
0.23
0.09
0.07 0.06
0.18
0.13
C

𝐼𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′ ∩ 𝐶) = 0.18