FAM - FS Förmüll
FAM - FS Förmüll
FAM-S
A. REVIEW OF PROBABILITY
A1. BASIC PROBABILITY
dg −1 (y)
Transformation: fY (y) = fX g −1 (y)
Y = g (X) → dy
Variance:
2
V ar (X) = E X 2 − E [X]
Standard Deviation:
p
SD (X) = V ar (X)
Cov (X, Y )
Correlation Coefficient: Corr (X, Y ) =
SD (X) SD (Y )
→ V ar (W ) = a2 V ar (X) + b2 V ar (Y )
→ V ar (S) = nV ar (X)
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ACTEX Learning Exam FAM Page 2
B. SEVERITY, FREQUENCY
& AGGREGATE MODELS
B1. SEVERITY DISTRIBUTIONS
F (x) = Pr (X ∗ ≥ α)
1 α
Gamma
x
f (x) = θ
xα−1 e− θ , x > 0 x E [X] = αθ V ar (X) = αθ2
Γ (α) X ∗ is Poisson with λ =
θ
If α is an integer.
Γ (a + b) a−1 b−1 a a (a + 1)
f (x) = x (1 − x) , E [X] = E X2 =
Beta Γ (a) Γ (b) a+b (a + b) (a + b + 1)
θ
αθα
θ
α E [X] =
Pareto f (x) = α+1 , x>0 F (x) = 1 − α−1
(x + θ) x+θ
If α > 1 is an integer.
α
αθα θ αθ
Single P. Pareto f (x) = , x>θ F (x) = 1 − E [X] =
xα+1 x α−1
log x − µ
1 (log x−µ)2 σ2
Lognormal
2
√ e− 2σ2 , x > 0
f (x) = F (x) = N E [X] = eµ+ 2 E X 2 = e2µ+2σ
xσ 2π σ
Binomial m
m−x
P (x) = x q x (1 − q) , x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , m E [N ] = mq V ar (N ) = mq (1 − q)
x
Geometric P (x) = 1
1+β
β
1+β , x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , ∞ E [N ] = β V ar (N ) = β (1 + β)
r x
Negative Binomial P (x) = x+r−1
x
1
1+β
β
1+β , x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , ∞ E [N ] = rβ V ar (N ) = rβ (1 + β)
Zero-modified distributions.: pM M
x = 1 − p0
px
1−p0
→ V ar(S) = nV ar(X)
Normal Distribution:
iid
Xi ∼ N µ, σ 2 → S L = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn ∼ N nµ, nσ 2
Exponential Distribution:
iid
Xi ∼ Exp (θ) → S L = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn ∼ Gamma (α = n, θ)
Normal approximation: k−µ
S ∼N
˙ µ = E[S], σ 2 = V ar(S) → P r(S ≤ k) ≈ N σ
3. Subadditivity: ρ (X + Y ) ≤ ρ (X) + ρ (Y )
4. Monotonicity: ρ (X) ≤ ρ (Y ) If Pr (X ≤ Y ) = 1
Tail-Value-at-Risk: TVARα (X) = E [X|X > VaRα (X)] = VaRα (X) + E[X]−E[X∧VaRα (X)]
1−α
E X2
Equilibrium Distribution: fe (x) = E[X] ,
S(x)
X>0 → E [Xe ] = 2E[X]
C. COVERAGE MODIFICATIONS
C1. PAYMENT PER LOSS
X, X≤u
With maximum covered loss u
YL = E Y L = E[X ∧ u]
u,
X>u
0, X≤d
With d and u
YL = X − d, d < X ≤ u E Y L = E[X ∧ u] − E[X ∧ d]
u − d, X > u
0, X≤d
With d, u and coinsurance factor α
YL = α(X − d), d < X ≤ u E Y L = α(E[X ∧ u] − E[X ∧ d])
α(u − d), X > u
d
0, X ≤ 1+r
h i h i
With d, u, α and inflation rate r
u d
YL = α(1 + r) X − d , d u E Y L = α(1 + r) E X ∧ −E X ∧
1+r 1+r < X ≤ 1+r 1+r 1+r
α(1 + r) u − d , X > u
1+r 1+r 1+r
h i
E YL
Loss elimination ratio: LER = 1 − E[X]
C3. REINSURANCE
X, X≤d
0, X≤d
Covers losses above d but below u Y = d, d≤X<u Y = X − d, d ≤ X < u
X + d − u, X > u u − d, X > u
Exponential θ̂ = x̄
Normal 1 2
σ̂ 2 =
P
µ̂ = x̄ n (xi − µ̂)
L(θ) = f (x1 ) . . . f (xn )
Lognormal log xi
1 1 2
σ̂ 2 =
P P
µ̂ = n n (log xi − µ̂)
Binomial q̂ = x̄
m
L(θ) = p (x1 ) . . . p (xn )
Poisson λ̂ = x̄
f (x1 ) f (xn )
Left-truncated data L= ... Losses below d are not reported.
S(d) S(d)
Left-truncated
m
f (x1 ) f (xn ) S(u)
L= ... Losses below d are not reported. Losses are capped at u.
S(d) S(d) S(d)
& Right-censored data
E. CLASSICAL CREDIBILITY
E1. FULL CREDIBILITY
We want...to be within k of Range parameter, k Total number of exposures Total number of claims
1 + p
the mean p of the time. Note: z = N −1 needed, eF needed, nF
2
Var(N )
r
z
eF
Average number of claims k= z 2 Var(N ) z 2 Var(N )
E[N ] eF = × nF = × × E[N ]
k E[N ]2 k E[N ]2
z eF Var(N )
p
Total number of claims k=
eF E[N ]
Var(X)
r
z
nF
z 2 Var(X) 1 z 2 Var(X)
Average claim size k= eF = × × nF = ×
E[X] k E[X]2 E[N ] k E[X]2
Var(S)
r
z
eF
Average aggregate claims k= z 2 Var(S) z 2 Var(S)
E[S] eF = × nF = × × E[N ]
k E[S]2 k E[S]2
z eF Var(S)
p
Total aggregate claims k=
eF E[S]
We want...to be within k Total number of exposures needed, Total number of claims needed,
Frequency
of the mean p of the time. eF nF
N ∼ Poisson(λ)
z 2 Var(X) 1 z 2 Var(X)
Average claim size eF = × × nF = ×
k E[X]2 λ k E[X]2
Written exposure
Earned exposure
Exposure
Unearned exposure
Written premium
Earned premium
Premium
Unearned premium
Reported claims
Claim
Unreported claims
Number of Claims
Basic formulas: Frequency =
Number of Exposures
Losses
Severity =
Number of Claims
Losses
Pure Premium/Loss Cost = = Frequency × Severity
Number of Exposures
Losses
Loss Ratio =
Premium
Expenses
Expense Ratio =
Premium
2. Calculate age-to-age factors using average factor method or mean factor method.
2. Calculate age-to-age factors using average factor method or mean factor method.
Bornhuetter-Ferguson method
3. Calculate age-to-ultimate factor fULT , which is the product of age-to-age factors.
4. Ultimate Losses = Paid Losses + Earned Premium × Expected Loss Ratio × 1 − 1
fULT
General formula: Premium = Losses + Loss adjustment expenses + Fixed Expenses + Variable Expenses + Profit
L + LAE + F
Premium: P = L + LAE + F + (V + Q)P → P =
1−V −Q
L + LAE + F
Permissible loss ratio: R=1−V −Q → P =
R
Current rate level
Adjustments to data: Premium at current rates = Earned premium ×
Historical average rate level
G. Option Pricing
G1. PUT AND CALL OPTIONS
S(T ) S(T )
k
k
S(T ) S(T )
k
k
erh − d
Risk neutral probability: p∗ =
u−d
FAM-L
A. REVIEW OF PROBABILITY
A1. BASIC PROBABILITY
Variance:
2
V ar (X) = E X 2 − E [X]
Standard Deviation:
p
SD (X) = V ar (X)
Cov (X, Y )
Correlation Coefficient: Corr (X, Y ) =
SD (X) SD (Y )
Linear Combination: W = aX + bY
E [W ] = aE [X] + bE [Y ]
Sum of iid X: S = X1 + · · · + Xn
Conditional expectation
R∞
E[X | Y = y] = −∞
xf (x | y)dx
(Continuous):
Rate of discount: d= i
1+i = iv = 1 − v
Discounting rate: v= 1
1+i =1−d
C. SURVIVAL MODELS
C1. SURVIVAL FUNCTION
Sx (u + t)
Formulas: Sx (u + t) = Sx (u) Sx+u (t) → Sx+u (t) =
Sx (u)
S0 (x + t)
S0 (x + t) = S0 (x) Sx (t) → Sx (t) =
S0 (x)
t+u qx = t qx + t px u qx+t
Number of lives: lx
lx+t
Formulas: t px =
lx
d
t x lx − lx+t
t qx = =
lx lx
u dx+t lx+t − lx+t+u
t|u qx = =
lx lx
Condition: lim
Rt
µs ds = ∞
t→∞ 0
Formulas:
Rt R x+t
t px = e− 0
µx+s ds
= e− x
µs ds
Rt
t qx = p
0 s x
µx+s ds
R t+u
t|u qx = t s px µx+s ds
Expectations:
o R∞ R∞
E [Tx ] = ex = 0
t t px µx+t dt = 0 t px dt
∞
P ∞
P
E [Kx ] = ex = k k px qx+k = k px
k=1 k=1
o Rn Rn
E [min (Tx , n)] = ex:n = 0
t t px µx+t dt + nn px = p dt
0 t x
n−1
P n
P
E [min (Kx , n)] = ex:n = k k px qx+k + nn px = k px
k=1 k=1
Second moments:
R∞ R∞
E Tx2 = 0 t2 t px µx+t dt = 0 2tt px dt
∞ ∞ ∞
E Kx2 = k 2 k px qx+k =
P P P
(2k − 1) k px = 2 k k px − ex
k=1 k=1 k=1
h i
E min (Tx , n)
2 Rn Rn
= 0
t2 t px µx+t dt + n2 n px = 0
2tt px dt
h i n−1 n
E min (Kx , n) =
2 P 2
k k px qx+k + n2 n px =
P
(2k − 1) k px
k=1 k=1
Variance:
2
V ar (Tx ) = E Tx2 − E [Tx ]
2
V ar (Kx ) = E Kx2 − E [Kx ]
Recursive formulas:
o o o
ex = ex:n + n px ex+n
Bcx ct −1
k (x+t)n+1 −xn+1
Weibull distribution: µx = kxn → t px = e− n+1
Uniform distribution: µx = 1
ω−x for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω → t px =1− t
ω−x
α
Beta distribution: µx = α
ω−x for 0 ≤ x ≤ ω → t px = 1− t
ω−x
C7. APPROXIMATIONS
Sqx
UDD between integral ages: lx+s = lx − sdx → s qx = sq x s qx+t = qx = s px µx+s
1 − tqx
D. INSURANCE
D1. ACTUARIAL FUNCTIONS
Endowment:
2
n Ex =A 1 = v n n px 2
n Ex = 2A 1 = (v n ) n px
x: n x: n
Insurance (Continuous):
R∞ R∞ 2
Āx = 0
v t t px µx+t dt 2
Āx = 0
(v t ) t px µx+t dt
Rn Rn 2
Ā 1 = 0
v t t px µx+t dt 2
Ā 1 = 0
(v t ) t px µx+t dt
x:n x:n
Rn Rn 2 2
Āx:n = 0
v t t px µx+t dt + v n n px 2
Āx:n = 0
(v t ) t px µx+t dt + (v n ) n px
∞ ∞
Insurance (Discrete):
2
v k+1 k px qx+k 2
v k+1
P P
Ax = Ax = k px qx+k
k=0 k=0
n−1 n−1 2
v k+1 k px qx+k 2
v k+1
P P
A1 = A1 = k px qx+k
x:n x:n
k=0 k=0
n−1 n−1 2 2
v k+1 k px qx+k + v n n px 2
v k+1 qx+k + (v n )
P P
Ax:n = Ax:n = k px n px
k=0 k=0
nm−1
Insurance (mthly):
(m)
v k/m+1/m k/m px
P
A1 = 1/m qx+k/m
x:n k=0
Āx:n = Ā 1 + n Ex Ax:n = A 1 + n Ex
x:n x:n
2
A1 = vqx + vpx A 1 A1 = v 2 qx + v 2 px 2 A 1
x:n x+1:n−1 x:n x+1:n−1
bv Tx ,
Tx < n bv Kx +1 ,
Kx = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n − 1
n-year endowment insurance Z= Z=
bv n ,
Tx ≥ n bv n ,
Kx = n, n + 1, . . . , ∞
0,
Tx < n
n-year pure endowment Z=
bv n ,
Tx ≥ n
0, Tx < n 0, Kx = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n − 1
n-year deferred whole life insurance Z= Z=
bv Tx ,
Tx ≥ n bv Kx +1 ,
Kx = n, n + 1, . . . , ∞
n-year deferred whole life insurance E [Z] = bn| Āx E [Z] = bn| Ax
D5. APPROXIMATIONS
(m) i
Ax = A
i(m) x
2 2i+i2 2
Āx = 2δ Ax
2
Āx = (1 + i) 2 Ax
E. ANNUITIES
E1. ACTUARIAL FUNCTIONS
R ∞ 1−vt R ∞ 1−v2t
Annuity (Continuous): āx = 0 δ t px µx+t dt 2
āx = 0 2δ t px µx+t dt
R n 1−vt 1−v n
2
R n 1−v2t
1−v 2n
āx:n = 0 δ t px µx+t dt + δ n px āx:n = 0 2δ t px µx+t dt + 2δ n px
∞ ∞
Annuity (Discrete): 1−v k+1 2 1−v 2k+2
P P
äx = d k px qx+k äx = 2d−d2 k px qx+k
k=0 k=0
n−1
P n−1
P 1−v2k+2
1−v k+1 1−v n 1−v 2n
2
äx:n = d k px qx+k + d n px äx:n = 2d−d2 k px qx+k + 2d−d2 n px
k=0 k=0
Simpler formulas:
R∞ R∞
āx = 0
v t t px dt 2
āx = 0
v 2t t px dt
Rn Rn
āx:n = 0
v t t px dt 2
āx:n = 0
v 2t t px dt
∞ ∞
v k k px 2
v 2k k px
P P
äx = äx =
k=0 k=0
n−1 n−1
v k k px 2
v 2k k px
P P
äx:n = äx:n =
k=0 k=0
nm−1
(m) P 1 k/m
äx:n = mv k/m px
k=0
äx = 1 + ax
2
äx:n = 1 + vpx äx+1:n−1 äx:n = 1 + v 2 px 2 äx+1:n−1
1−Ax 2 1−2 Ax
äx = d äx = 2d−d2
1−v n 1−v n
b , Tx < n b , Kx = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n − 1
n-year certain whole life annuity
δ d
Y = Y =
b 1−vTx ,
Tx ≥ n b 1−vKx +1 , Kx = n, n + 1, . . . , ∞
δ d
0, Tx < n 0, Kx = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n − 1
n-year deferred whole life annuity Y = Y =
n T n K +1
b v −v x , Tx ≥ n
b v −v x
, Kx = n, n + 1, . . . , ∞
δ d
2
2 2
2
n-year term annuity
Āx:n − Āx:n Ax:n − Ax:n
V ar (Y ) = b2 δ2 V ar (Y ) = b2 d2
E5. APPROXIMATIONS
(m) id i−i(m)
äx = ä
i(m) d(m) x
− i(m) d(m)
(m) id i−i(m)
äx:n = ä
i(m) d(m) x:n
− i(m) d(m)
(1 − n Ex )
(m) m−1
äx ≈ äx − 2m
(m) m−1
äx:n ≈ äx:n − 2m (1 − n Ex )
m2 −1
where µx ≈ − 12 (log px−1 + log px ) if not given.
(m) m−1
äx ≈ äx − 2m − 12m2 (µx + δ)
(m) m−1 m2 −1
äx:n ≈ äx:n − 2m (1 − n Ex ) − 12m2 (µx + δ − n Ex (µx+n + δ))
F. PREMIUMS
F1. ACTUARIAL FUNCTIONS
A1
Premium (Discrete): Ax x:n Ax:n
Px = äx P1 = äx:n Px:n = äx:n
x:n
Ā 1
Premium (Continuous):
Āx x:n
Āx:n
P̄ Āx = āx P̄ Ā 1 = āx:n P̄ Āx:n = āx:n
x:n
Loss-at-issue: 0L
n
= P V (Benefits) − P V (Premiums)
0L
g
= P V (Benefits) + P V (Expenses) − P V (Premiums)
Fully continuous whole life insurance Fully discrete whole life insurance
g 1−v Tx g 1−v Kx +1
0L = (b + E) v Tx − (G − e) δ , Tx ≥ 0 0L = (b + E) v Kx +1 − (G − e) d , Kx = 0, 1, 2, . . . , ∞
Fully continuous n-year endowment insurance Fully discrete n-year endowment insurance
(b + E) v Tx − (G − e) 1−vTx , Tx < n
(b + E) v Kx +1 − (G − e) 1−vKx +1 , Kx = 0, 1, . . . , n − 1
g δ g d
0L = 0L =
(b + E) v n − (G − e) 1−vn ,
Tx ≥ n (b + E) v n − (G − e) 1−vn ,
Kx = n, n + 1, . . . , ∞
δ d
Mean: µ = E[S] = nE [0 Lg ]
G. RESERVES
G1. PROSPECTIVE FORMULA
Expense reserve: tV
e
= t V g − t V n = EP Vt (Expenses)−EP Vt (Expense Loadings)
Fully continuous whole life insurance Fully discrete whole life insurance
g 1−v Tx+t g 1−v Kx+k +1
tL = (b + E) v Tx+t − (G − e) δ , Tx+t ≥ 0 kL = (b + E) v Kx+k +1 − (G − e) d ,
Kx+k = 0, 1, 2, . . . , ∞
Fully continuous n-year endowment insurance Fully discrete n-year endowment insurance
Kx+k +1
(b + E) v Kx+k +1 − (G − e) 1−v d ,
(b + E) v Tx+t − (G − e) 1−vTx+t , Tx+t < n − t
Kx+k = 0, . . . , n − k − 1
g δ g
tL = kL =
(b + E) v n−t − (G − e) 1−vn−t ,
Tx+t ≥ n − t
(b + E) v n−k − (G − e) 1−vd
n−k
,
δ
Kx+k = n − k, n − k + 1, . . .
1V
FPT
=A 1 − βäx+1:n−1 = 0 → β= x+1:n−1
äx+1:n−1 n-year term
x+1:n−1
Ax+1:n−1
1V
FPT
= Ax+1:n−1 − βäx+1:n−1 = 0 → β= äx+1:n−1 n-year endowment