BIANCA GABO

BSOA-2
1. What is the Delphi Method?
The Delphi Method is a structured communication technique used for gathering
expert opinions and reaching a consensus on a specific topic or issue. It involves
multiple rounds of anonymous surveys or questionnaires, where experts provide
their insights, followed by a summary of the responses. Participants can revise their
answers based on feedback from the group, fostering a more informed discussion.
Main Advantages:
 Anonymity: Experts can provide their opinions without the influence of
others, reducing bias and groupthink.
 Diverse Perspectives: It gathers insights from various experts, enhancing
the quality of the information.
 Iterative Feedback: The iterative process allows participants to refine their
views based on the group's input, leading to a more informed consensus.
 Flexibility: It can be applied to a wide range of topics and industries.
Limitations:
 Time-Consuming: The process can take a considerable amount of time due
to multiple rounds of surveys.
 Potential for Dominance: Some experts may dominate the discussion,
influencing the final consensus disproportionately.
 Requires Skilled Facilitators: Effective facilitation is essential to ensure
constructive dialogue and mitigate bias.
 Limited Depth: While it generates consensus, it may not delve deeply into
complex issues due to its structured nature.
2. What is Trend Projection?
Trend projection is a forecasting method that analyzes historical data to identify
patterns or trends, which are then projected into the future. This approach is often
employed in economic forecasting to estimate future values based on past
performance. It typically involves the use of statistical techniques, such as
regression analysis, to model the relationship between variables.
Why It’s Employed:
 Simplicity: Trend projection is relatively straightforward to implement and
interpret, making it accessible for various users.
 Historical Basis: It relies on actual data, providing a factual foundation for
predictions.
  Long-Term Planning: Businesses and policymakers can use trend
projections for strategic planning, budgeting, and resource allocation based
on expected future conditions.
3. Differentiate Time Series and Extrapolation
Time Series refers to a sequence of data points collected or recorded at successive
points in time, often at regular intervals (e.g., daily, monthly, yearly). It focuses on
analyzing past data to identify patterns, seasonal effects, and trends over time.
Common examples include stock prices, sales figures, and economic indicators.
Extrapolation, on the other hand, is a method used to estimate or project future
values based on the existing data points from a time series. It involves extending
the trends identified in the historical data into the future. While extrapolation can
use time series data, it can also apply to any dataset where a pattern is discernible.
Key Differences:
 Focus: Time series emphasizes understanding and analyzing historical data,
while extrapolation is concerned with predicting future values based on that
data.
 Usage: Time series analysis can be used to identify patterns and seasonal
variations, while extrapolation specifically aims to extend those patterns into
the future.
1. Factors for Accurate Sales and Profit Forecasting
Accurate sales and profit forecasting requires a thorough analysis of both firm-
specific factors and broader market influences. Here are some key factors a firm
should consider in its own sales and profit forecasting:
 Historical Sales Data: Analyzing past sales performance helps identify
trends and seasonality that can inform future expectations.
 Market Conditions: Understanding the current economic environment,
including market demand, consumer preferences, and competition, is crucial.
Economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation
can also impact sales.
 Product Lifecycle Stage: The stage of the product in its lifecycle
(introduction, growth, maturity, or decline) influences sales potential. New
products may require different forecasting approaches compared to
established ones.
 Marketing and Promotion Strategies: Planned marketing campaigns,
promotions, or product launches can significantly affect sales. Anticipating
their impact is essential for accurate forecasting.
 Distribution Channels: The effectiveness and reach of distribution channels
can impact sales. Changes in these channels (e.g., new partnerships, e-
commerce growth) should be factored in.
  Pricing Strategy: Pricing changes, discounts, or competitive pricing actions
can influence consumer purchasing behavior and should be considered in
forecasts.
 Operational Capacity: Understanding the firm's production capabilities and
supply chain constraints helps ensure that forecasts are realistic and
achievable.
 Regulatory Environment: Changes in laws or regulations that affect the
industry or market can impact sales and should be included in the forecasting
process.
 Technological Advancements: New technologies or innovations can create
opportunities or threats that affect sales and profitability.
2. Forecasting the Next Value
If the last actual values were 50 and 55, the next value can be estimated using
different methods, such as calculating the average of the two values, finding a
trend, or applying a simple linear projection.
1. Average Method:
Next Value=50+552=52.5\text{Next Value} = \frac{50 + 55}{2} =
52.5Next Value=250+55=52.5
2. Simple Increment Method: If we consider the increment from 50 to 55 as a
trend, the increase is 5. Assuming the next value continues this trend:
Next Value=55+5=60\text{Next Value} = 55 + 5 = 60Next Value=55+5=60
Based on these calculations, the next value could be 52.5 (if using the average) or
60 (if following the trend). Depending on the context and the method preferred,
either could be considered reasonable.