Background

Floods are a significant natural calamity resulting from the excessive accumulation of water in
an area, typically caused by heavy rainfall, snowmelt, river overflow, or other factors
(Jongman et al., 2014). They can be classified based on various criteria, including their source
(riverine, coastal, flash floods), location (localized, urban, rural), severity or recurrence
interval (normal, severe, catastrophic floods), duration (short-term, long-term floods), impact
(minor, moderate, major floods), and geological setting (fluvial, pluvial, coastal floods)
(Glago, 2021).

Natural disasters, including floods, create significant economic losses globally, encompassing
property damage, decreased financial resources, disease or injury, and occasionally death
(Ritchie & Roser, 2019). Over the past seven decades, natural disasters have caused over USD
3 trillion in global economic loss, 1.3 million casualties, and 4.4 billion impairments,
affecting human and animal life, livestock, crops, land, houses, and infrastructure (Balgah et
al., 2023).

Floods frequently affect society, leading to resource depletion, relocation, and large-scale
human displacement. They are among the most common natural events with a negative
impact on both the environment and human lives, second only to wildfires in terms of
frequency. Floods occur quickly and can be far more destructive than droughts, which start
slowly and last longer (Huho & Kosonei, 2014).

According to Amarasinghe et al. (2020), over 74% of natural hazards are water-related, with
floods and storms responsible for nearly 69% of financial losses. Floods are the most frequent
and severe global extreme event, largely influenced by climate change and socio-economic
development. Between 2000 and 2019, floods were the second largest natural disaster,
affecting the highest number of people after droughts (Balgah et al., 2023).

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The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2015) highlights that
flooding is a prevalent and damaging environmental hazard globally, exacerbated by
population pressure, urbanization, and climate change. Its socio-economic impacts include
property damage, community displacement, and health risks (Ghapar et al., 2018).
Uncontrolled floods can destroy farming land, built environments, and infrastructure,
affecting 1.81 billion individuals (Glago, 2021; Hirabayashi et al., 2013; Jongman et al.,
2014).

Flooding disrupts production systems, making it impossible to cultivate farms, floods out
livestock herding grounds, reduces employment opportunities in both farm and non-farm
activities, destroys irrigation infrastructure, undermines markets and value chains, and results
in significant human suffering due to a lack of safe spaces (Muia, 2021). The variability and
changes in climate increase flood events, exposing more people to flooding disasters and
negatively impacting rural livelihoods (Mabuku et al., 2019; Nigatu et al., 2023).

Flood events cause widespread community disruption, displacement, economic loss, property
damage, deaths, injury, and profound emotional suffering. They affect infrastructure,
property, agricultural endeavors, and historical and cultural sites (Glago, 2021). Studies have
shown that flooding significantly impacts rural livelihoods, especially subsistence farmers
(Atubiga & Donkor, 2022).

The African continent has not been spared by flood hazards and disasters. Most documented
flood disasters in African societies result from natural hazards, exacerbated by imperfect
development processes (Dube, 2017). The frequent occurrence of extreme hydrologic events,
such as floods, over the last couple of decades signals key climate variability and change in
many parts of Africa. The impacts of these extreme events vary from region to region, with
Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing persistent floods and droughts that jeopardize millions of
urban and rural lives. Projected climate change impacts indicate that Eastern Africa will face
more frequent flooding, increased poverty among small-scale farmers, and changing rainy
seasons, making agriculture more difficult (Quandt & Kimathi, 2017).

In Ethiopia, flooding is a major environmental risk and devastating natural disaster, with its
physical manifestation increasing over time (Amede et al., 2022). The frequency of recurring
floods in Ethiopia's drylands has increased, reducing their capacity to adjust to shocks. The
dryland pastoral and agro-pastoral communities now experience more disasters due to cyclical

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flood patterns and frequent occurrences (Desta et al., 2024). Flash floods in Ethiopia's
lowlands arise from degraded highland mountain areas caused by overgrazing, erosion, and
soil depletion, linked to high rainfall intensities in the highlands (Getnet et al., 2022; Gumma
et al., 2022). Flood incidents have become more severe over the past decade as land
degradation in upstream areas has increased (Barvels & Fensholt, 2021).

The Somali region experiences periodic flooding, resulting in livelihood interruptions, shelter
damage, and the displacement of thousands of households in flood-prone areas. The most
devastated communities are in Mustahil woreda, which have lost substantial amounts of
cattle, crops, and shelter (IOM, 2020). Floods frequently expose poor rural communities to
negative economic consequences and vulnerability (Balgah et al., 2023). The implications of
flooding on the livelihoods of agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia, particularly in Mustahil
woreda, reveal significant vulnerabilities that demand urgent attention.The purpose of this
study is to analyze the impact of flooding on the livelihoods of agro-pastoral communities in
Mustahil woreda.

1.2. Statement of the Problem

Flooding is a serious environmental disaster, often resulting in devastating natural

catastrophes that cause significant losses in life, property, and the economy (UNICEF, 2023;
Gashaw & Legesse, 2011; Nguyen et al., 2023; Sofia et al., 2017). Floods disrupt personal,
economic, and social activities, as well as infrastructure and household livelihoods, leading to
human misery, inconvenience, and widespread destruction (Edamo, Bushira et al., 2022). A
study by Abdisa (2023) highlights the devastating impact of floods, affecting 2.8 billion
people globally since 1990, causing significant property damage and impacting over 82% of
the global population through material damage. While climate change may have some
anticipated positive impacts in certain regions, developing countries are most likely to
experience its negative effects. Flooding is one of the main factors preventing African
populations from escaping poverty (Sunday et al., 2016).

Ethiopia is notably one of the natural hazard-prone countries in Sub-Saharan Africa,

frequently experiencing droughts and floods (Biruk, 2018). Climate change, characterized by
erratic rainfall and frequent floods, significantly impacts smallholder farming communities in
Ethiopia, posing substantial security and livelihood risks. The country faces an unprecedented
and abnormally large-scale flood threat across various regions (Demissie et al., 2021). Several

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flood incidences have been reported in the Afar, Oromia, SNNP, and Somali regions of
Ethiopia (Deresse & Baye, 2024). Historical flood records since the 1980s depict more than
47 flood events affecting 2.2 million people in Ethiopia.

Mustahil Woreda in the Somali Region of Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to recurrent flooding
due to its geographical and climatic conditions. Agro-pastoral communities in the area, reliant
on agriculture and livestock, face significant socio-economic challenges as floods destroy
crops, livestock, and infrastructure, exacerbating poverty and food insecurity (SRS, 2020; UN
OCHA, 2023). Efforts to mitigate flood impacts, such as lifesaving and livelihood protection
measures, are hindered by land ownership issues and community reluctance to evacuate
(IOM, 2020). Despite these interventions, increasing flood severity and limited localized
research leave critical gaps in understanding flood impacts on livelihoods. This study seeks to
assess these impacts and contribute to developing targeted strategies for enhancing
community resilience.

Few studies have explored the impact of natural disasters on Ethiopian livelihoods, with most
focusing on drought and overlooking flooding and its effects in various regions (Mengistu et
al., 2015). The few available studies on floods also focus on issues such as risk perceptions
and risk management strategies (Biruk, 2018). Deresse and Baye (2024) evaluated flood
impacts on household livelihoods in Gelana Woreda, Ethiopia, identifying contributing
causes, calculating flood impact, assessing mitigation strategies, and assessing livelihood
impacts. Other studies have assessed flood hazards in a semi-closed basin in northern Ethiopia
(Demissie et al., 2021).

Desta et al. (2024) explored flood risks and opportunities for flood-based farming in the dry
lowlands, while Gumma et al. (2020) used satellite imagery to assess potential locations for
flood-based farming. Furthermore, Nigatu et al. (2023) investigated flood incidence causes
and mitigation in the Ribb river case study and provided empirical evidence for livelihood
resilience. In the Fogera floodplain, Zenebe et al. (2022) conducted a basin-wide productivity
and livelihood analysis of flood-based agriculture systems in African drylands.

This research highlights critical gaps, including limited local studies that examine the impacts
of floods on agricultural productivity and livestock (Nigatu et al., 2023). Similarly, an in-
depth analysis of coping and adaptation strategies used by agro-pastoralists is lacking.

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Existing research often focuses on immediate impacts, neglecting adaptive strategies and
long-term recovery potential (Tofu et al., 2023).

All these studies did not holistically address the impact of flooding on agro-pastoral
livelihoods, and no research has been conducted in the research area on the impact of flooding
on livelihoods, as far as the researcher’s knowledge is concerned. This study, therefore,
addresses the above gaps and problems of flood impacts on livelihoods in Mustahil Woreda
by assessing the specific impacts of flooding on the livelihoods of agro-pastoral communities.
It aims to identify critical vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities within these populations,
ultimately informing targeted interventions and policy frameworks to bolster resilience
against future climate-related adversities.

1.3 Objective of the Study

1.3.1 General Objective
The overall objective of this research is to analyze the impact of flooding on the livelihoods of
agro-pastoral communities in Mustahil Woreda, Somali Region, Ethiopia.
1.3.2 Specific Objectives
Specifically, the study aims to:
 Determine the underlying causes of vulnerability to floods in Mustahil Woreda.
 Analyze the effects of floods on agro-pastoral livelihoods in Mustahil Woreda.
 Assess the coping and adaptation strategies of agro-pastoral households in Mustahil
Woreda.
 Evaluate the local flood risk reduction measures and their impact on agro-pastoral
livelihoods in Mustahil Woreda.
1.4 Significance of the Study
The significance of this study can be categorized into three main areas: theoretical, policy, and
knowledge significance.
Theoretical Significance: This study is important as it assesses the effects of floods on the
livelihoods of agro-pastoral communities in Mustahil Woreda and contributes to the
theoretical framework of disaster risk management (DRM). By integrating local contexts and
challenges faced by agro-pastoral communities, the study enhances the understanding of
vulnerabilities and flood impacts, which is crucial for developing targeted interventions.
Policy Significance: The findings of this study will inform sustainable mitigation measures,
highlighting the unique needs of flood-prone communities. This will guide policymakers in

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disaster risk reduction policies and resource allocation, prioritizing vulnerable populations
and minimizing the impact of floods. The study aims to enhance DRM in flood-prone areas
and encourages future research on related issues.
Knowledge Significance: Focusing on Mustahil Woreda, this study provides insights
applicable to similar regions, influencing future policies and practices in disaster preparedness
and response. By contributing to the existing knowledge in DRM, the study supports the
development of effective strategies to enhance community resilience against flooding.
1.5 Delimitation / Scope of the Study
This study examines the impact of floods on the livelihoods of agro-pastoral households in
Mustahil Woreda. Due to time and resource constraints, the study will be confined to
analyzing the causes of vulnerability to flood risks and the impact of floods on the livelihoods
of agro-pastoral communities. It will carefully assess the effects of floods on human,
financial, physical, and natural capital, as well as the coping and adaptation strategies
employed by flood-affected households. Additionally, the study will evaluate local disaster
risk reduction (DRR) measures for mitigating flood risks. The geographical scope of the study
will be limited to Mustahil Woreda in the Shebelle Zone of the Somali Region.
1.6 Methodology
1.6.1 Research Design
This study will employ a mixed-methods research design, combining both quantitative and
qualitative approaches to comprehensively analyze the impact of flooding on the livelihoods
of agro-pastoral communities in Mustahil Woreda. This design allows for a more robust
understanding of the research problem by integrating numerical data with detailed contextual
insights.
1.6.2 Study Area
The study will be conducted in Mustahil Woreda, located in the Shebelle Zone of the Somali
Region, Ethiopia. This area is highly vulnerable to recurrent flooding due to its geographical
and climatic conditions, making it an ideal location for this research.
1.6.3 Population and Sampling
The target population for this study includes agro-pastoral households in Mustahil Woreda. A
stratified random sampling technique will be used to ensure representation from different sub-
groups within the community. The sample size will be determined based on the population
size and the desired level of precision, using appropriate statistical formulas.
1.6.4 Data Collection Methods
Quantitative Data:

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  Surveys: Structured questionnaires will be administered to a sample of agro-pastoral
households to collect quantitative data on economic losses, socio-economic impacts,
and coping strategies. The questionnaires will include both closed and open-ended
questions to capture a range of information.
 Secondary Data: Relevant secondary data will be collected from government reports,
non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other published sources to supplement
the primary data.
Qualitative Data:
 Interviews: In-depth interviews will be conducted with key informants, including
community leaders, local government officials, and representatives from NGOs. These
interviews will provide detailed insights into the local context, vulnerabilities, and
adaptive capacities.
 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): FGDs will be organized with different groups
within the community, such as men, women, and youth, to gather diverse perspectives
on the impact of flooding and community responses.
1.6.5 Data Analysis
Quantitative Data Analysis:
 Descriptive statistics will be used to summarize the data, including measures of central
tendency (mean, median) and dispersion (standard deviation).
 Inferential statistics, such as regression analysis, will be employed to identify
relationships between variables and determine the factors contributing to vulnerability
and resilience.
Qualitative Data Analysis:
 Thematic analysis will be used to analyze qualitative data from interviews and FGDs.
This involves coding the data, identifying key themes, and interpreting the findings in
relation to the research objectives.
1.6.6 Ethical Considerations
 Informed Consent: Participants will be informed about the purpose of the study, their
rights, and the confidentiality of their responses. Written consent will be obtained from
all participants.
 Confidentiality: All data collected will be kept confidential and used solely for
research purposes. Personal identifiers will be removed to ensure anonymity.
 Ethical Approval: The study will seek ethical approval from the relevant institutional
review board before commencing data collection.

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