PROBABILITY

• INTRODUCTION

• This is the chance or likelihood of an event happening or not happening.

• The probability of a certain or definite event is 1.

• The probability of an impossible event is 0

• Therefore, probability is usually expressed as a fraction or decimal from 0 to 1.

 TYPES OF PROBABILITY

• Experimental probability

• This is probability which is based on past events or observations

• Example

• During the past 5 years we had rains in the month of July in the years indicated below coloured in blue and no rains in the
ones coloured in red.

• 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023. Using the above information find the probability that it will rain in July 2024.

• P(rains in July 2024)=number of years when it rained/total number of years available.

• =3/5
 THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

• This is probability which is not based on any past events.

• Coin tossing

• An unbiased or fair coin

• An unbiased coin has two sides a head and a tail. If the coin is tossed once. Find the following:

• The probability of getting a head.

• The probability of getting a tail.

 SOLUTIONS

• Either side has equal chances of appearing.

• The probability of getting a head is ½ or 0,5

• The probability of getting a tail is ½ or 0,5.

•
 A BIASED OR UNFAIR COIN

• Example

• If the probability of getting a head on a biased coin is 0,6.

a. Find the probability of getting a tail.

b. Find the expected number of heads if the coin is tossed 50 times.
 SOLUTIONS

a. P(tail)=1-0,6

• =0,4

a. Expected number of heads =number of throws probability of getting one head

• =50×0,6

• =30
 PLAYING CARDS

• A pack of playing has 52 cards that is excluding the Jokers. These are grouped as follows

• 13 diamonds

• 13 hearts

• 13 spades

• 13 shrubs
 EXAMPLE

• From a pack of 52 playing cards 1 card is picked at random. Find the probability of picking

a. 3 diamond
b. a Queen (Q)
c. a spade
d. a red card
 SOLUTIONS

a. p (3 diamond) =1/52
b. p (a Queen) (Q) =4/52
c. p (a spade) =13/52

• p (a red card) =26/52

 DICE THROWING

• We have two main dice that we use namely the six sided and the four sided dice.

• Example

• Throwing the six-sided die once.

• A fair six-sided dice is thrown once. Find the probability of getting an outcome of

a. 4
b. 7
c. perfect number
d. greater that than 3
e. 1 or 3
 SOLUTIONS

a. P (4) =1/6
b. P (7) =0 this is an impossible event.
c. P(perfect) =2/6
d. P (greater than 3) =3/6
e. P (1) or (3) =2/6
 THROWING THE SIX-SIDED DIE TWICE

• .

• Outcomes Tables

• These are used when a single die is thrown twice or when two dice are thrown once at the same
time. The outcomes can either be added together or multiplied.
 EXAMPLE

• A fair six-sided die is thrown twice and the two outcomes are added together

a. Draw a suitable diagram to show all the possible outcomes.

b. How many outcomes are possible.
c. Find the following probabilities.
d. Probability of getting an outcome of
e. 4
f. Prime number
g. 13
h. Same number on both throws
i. Different numbers on the two throws
 OUTCOMES TABLE

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 SOLUTIONS

a. Number of Outcomes =36.

b. Probabilities of outcomes
i. p(4)=3/36
ii. p(prime)= 15/36
iii. p(greater than 8)=10/36
iv. p(Same number on both throws)=6/36
v. p(Different numbers on the two throws)=30/36
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS& INDEPENDENT EVENTS

• Mutually exclusive Events

• These are events which cannot happen at the same time. They exclude each other. The key word
here is OR and we should ADD

• Independent Events

• These are events whose occurring does not affect each other. The key word here is AND so we
MULTIPLY
 TREE DIAGRAMS

• TREE DIAGRAMS

• These are useful in solving complex probability problems. They are two main types namely

➢ With replacement: this is when we pick an item from the container, check its colour and return it
back.
➢ Without replacement: this is when we pick an item from the container, check its colour and do
not return it back.
 EXAMPLES

• For example, a bag contains 3 white and 2 black balls all identical except for colour. Two balls are
picked one after the other with replacement.

a. Draw a suitable diagram to show all the possible outcomes

b. How many outcomes are possible
c. Find the following probabilities
 EXAMPLES

i. Probability of picking a ball on the first pick

ii. Probability of picking a white followed by a black ball
iii. Probability of picking a white and by a black ball
iv. Probability of picking two balls of the same colour
v. Probability of picking two balls of the different colours
vi. Probability of picking first white ball on the second pick
vii. Probability of picking at least one white ball
viii. Probability of picking at most one white ball

• Probability of picking a white or black ball

 TREE DIAGRAM WITH REPLACEMENT

•
• 3/5 white =white white
• white
• 3/5 2/5 black =white black
•
• 2/5 3/5 white =black white
• black
• 2/5 black =black black
 TREE DIAGRAM WITHOUT REPLACEMENT

•
• 2/4 white =white white
• white
• 3/5 2/4 black =white black
•
• 2/5 3/4 white =black white
• black
• 1/4 black \=black black
 SOLUTIONS

i. p(white ball on the first pick)=3/5

ii. p(white followed by a black ball)=3/5 ×2/5=6/25
iii. p(white and by a black ball)=(3/5 ×2/5)+(2/5× 3/5)=12/25
iv. p(two balls of the same colour)= (3/5 ×3/5)+(2/5× 2/5)=13/25
 SOLUTIONS

v. p( two balls of the different colours)= )=(3/5 ×2/5)+(2/5× 3/5)=12/25

vi. (first white ball on the second pick)= (2/5× 3/5)
vii. p(at least one white ball)= (3/5 ×3/5)+(3/5× 2/5) )+(2/5× 3/5)=21/25
viii. p(at most one white ball)= (3/5 ×2/5)+(2/5× 3/5) )+(2/5× 2/5)=16/25
ix. p(a white or black ball)= (3/5 +2/5)=1 (definite event)
COMPILED BY
WALTER BAUDE