System

Definition of terms
System: a collection of parts organized for some purpose.
A system is a collection of entities e.g. people and machines that act and interact together
towards the accomplishment of some logical end.
To model a system, it is necessary to understand the concept of a system and the system
constraints. We define a system as a group of objects that are joined together in some
interaction or interdependence toward the accomplishment of some purpose. An example is a
production system manufacturing automobiles. The machines, component parts, and workers
operate jointly along an assembly line to produce a high-quality vehicle. A system is often
affected by changes occurring outside the system. Such changes are said to occur in the syst em
environment. In modelling systems, it is necessary to decide on the boundary between the
system and its environment. This decision may depend on the purpose of the study.

Components of a System
In order to understand and analyse a system, we need to define a number of terms.
i) Entity: This is an object of interest in the system. An attribute is a property of an entity.
ii) Activity: Represents a time period of specified length. If a bank is being studied, customers
might be one of the entities, the balance in their checking accounts might be an attribute,
and making deposits might be an activity.
iii) State of a system: A collection of variables necessary to describe a system at a particular
time, relative to the objectives of a study. In a study of a bank, examples of possible state
variables are the number of busy tellers, the number of customers in the bank, and the time
of arrival of each customer in the bank.

Types of systems
Natural systems: those related to the origins of the universe, e.g the atom and the Earth9s
weather system.
Designed physical systems: those designed and built by human e.g a house, cars and
production facilities.
Designed abstract systems: those that are abstract and designed by humans e.g mathematics,
literature.
Human activity systems: related to human social activity which is consciously or
unconsciously, ordered e.g a family, a city and political systems.

Operating systems (operations systems)

Operating systems: a configuration of resources combined for the provision of goods or
services.
Functions of operations services: manufacture, transport, supply and service. Some examples
of operations systems that can be simulated:
An automated production facility or warehouse (a designed physical system);
A regional health care delivery (a human activity system)
The service counters, automatic tellers, e.t.c of a bank (human activity or a social system);
Mixed physical systems and human activity systems e.g service operations, banks, call
centers, supermarkets, manufacturing plants, supply chains, transport systems, hospital
emergency departments and military operations.

Systems can be categorized to be of two types:

i. Discrete system - is one for which the state variables change instantaneously at separate
points in time e.g. in a bank, the number of customers changes only when a customer arrives
or finishes being served and departs.
ii. Continuous system - is one for which the state variables change continuously with respect
to time e.g. an airplane moving through the air has its state variables like position and velocity
changing continuously with time.

There is need to study most systems to gain some insight into the relationships among various
components or to predict performance under some new conditions being considered; this could
be done in the following ways:

Modelling and Simulation Concepts

Modern science would be inconceivable without computers to gather data and run model
simulations. Whether it involves bringing back pictures of the surface of the planet Mars or detailed
images to guide brain surgeons, computers have greatly extended our knowledge of the world
around us and our ability to turn ideas into engineering reality. Thus modelling and computer
simulation are important interdisciplinary tools.

Definitions
Modelling is the process of generating abstract, conceptual, graphical and/or mathematical
models. Science offers a growing collection of methods, techniques and theory about all kinds of
specialized scientific modelling.
Modelling also means to find relations between systems and models. Stated otherwise, models are
abstractions of real or imaginary worlds we create to understand their behaviour, play with them
by performing "what if" experiments, make projections, animate or simply have fun.
Modelling is a discipline for developing a level of understanding of the interaction of the parts of
a system, and of the system as a whole. The level of understanding which may be developed via
this discipline is seldom achievable via any other discipline.
Modeling: The process of constructing a conceptual imitation of the real or imaginary system.
It may involve the use of formal or modeling languages or mathematics. The output is a model
which is a version or a representation of the real or imaginary system.
A model in general is a pattern, plan, representation (especially in miniature), or description
designed to show the main object or workings of an object, system, or concept.
A model (physical or hypothetical) is a representation of real-world phenomenon or elements
(objects, concepts or events). Stated otherwise a model is an attempt to express a possible structure
of physical causality.
Models in science are often theoretical constructs that represent any particular thing with a set of
variables and a set of logical and or quantitative relationships between them. Models in this sense
are constructed to enable reasoning within an idealized logical framework about these processes
and are an important component of scientific theories.

Simulation -is the manipulation of a model in such a way that it operates on time or space to
compress it, thus enabling one to perceive the interactions that would not otherwise be apparent
because of their separation in time or space.
A simulation is a technique (not a method) for representing a dynamic real world system by a
model and experimenting with the model in order to gain information about the system and
therefore take appropriate decision. Simulation can be done by hand or by a computer. Simulat ions
are generally iterative in their development. One develops a model, simulates it, learns from the
result, revises the model, and continues the iterations until an adequate level of understanding is
attained.
Modelling and Simulation is a discipline for developing a level of understanding of the
interaction of the parts of a system, and of the system as a whole. The level of understanding which
may be developed via this discipline is seldom achievable via any other discipline.
A computer model is a simulation or model of a situation in the real world or an imaginary world
which has parameters that the user can alter.

Type of Models
There are many types of models and different ways of classifying/grouping them. For simplicity,
Models may be grouped into the following – Physical, Mathematical, Analogue, Simulation,
Heuristic, Stochastic and Deterministic models.
a. Physical Models
These are call iconic models. Good examples of physical models are model cars, model railway,
model airplane, scale models, etc. A model railway can be used to study the behaviour of a real
railway, also scale models can be used to study a plant layout design. In simulation studies, iconic
models are rarely used.
b. Mathematical Models
These are models used for predictive (projecting) purposes. They are abstract and take the form
of mathematical expressions of relationships. For examples:
1. x2 + y2 = 1 (mathematical model of a circle of radius 1)

2. Interest = Principal x Rate x Time ……………………………

100
3. Linear programming models and so on.
Mathematical models can be as simple as interest earnings on a savings account or as complex as
the operation of an entire factory or landing astronauts on the moon. The development of
mathematical models requires great deal of skill and knowledge.
c. Analogue Models
These are similar to iconic models. But here some other entities are used to represent directly the
entities of the real world. An example is the analogue computer where the magnitudes of the
electrical currents flowing in a circuit can be used to represent quantities of materials or people
moving around in a system. Other examples are; the gauge used to check the pressure in a tyre.
The movement of the dial represent the air pressure in the tyre. In medical examination, the
marks of electrical current on paper, is the analogue representation of the working of muscles or
organs.
d. Simulation Models
Here, instead of entities being represented physically, they are represented by sequences of
random numbers subject to the assumptions of the model. These models represent (emulate) the
behaviour of a real system. They are used where there are no suitable mathematical models or
where the mathematical model is too complex or where it is not possible to experiment upon a
working system without causing serious disruption.
e. Heuristic Models
These models use intuitive (or futuristic) rules with the hope that it will produce workable
solutions, which can be improved upon. For example, the Arthur C Clerk‘s heuristic model was
the forerunner of the communications satellite and today‘s international television broadcast.
f. Deterministic Models
These are models that contain certain known and fixed constants throughout their formulation
e.g., Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) for inventory control under uncertainty.
g. Stochastic models
These are models that involve one or more uncertain variables and as such are subject to
probabilities.

Advantages of Using Models

 They are safer.
 They are less expensive. For example, Practical Simulators are used to train pilots.
 They are easier to control than the real world counterparts.

Applications
One application of scientific modelling is the field of "Modelling and Simulation", generally
referred to as "M&S". M&S has a spectrum of applications which range from concept development
and analysis, through experimentation, measurement and verification, to disposal analysis. Projects
and programs may use hundreds of different simulations, simulators and model analysis tools

Modelling Procedure
 Step 1. Identify the Problem: Enumerate problems with an existing system. Produce
requirements for a proposed system.
 Step 2. Formulate the Problem: Select the bounds of the system, the problem or a part
thereof, to be studied. Define overall objective of the study and a few specific issues to be
addressed. Define performance measures – quantitative criteria on the basis of which
different system configurations will be compared and ranked. Identify, briefly at this stage,
the configurations of interest and formulate hypotheses about system performance. Decide
the time frame of the study. Identify the end-user of the simulation model.
 Step 3. Collect and Process Real System Data: Collect data on system specifications, input
variables, as well as the performance of the existing system.
 Step 4. Formulate and Develop a Model: Develop schematics and network diagrams of the
system. Translate these conceptual models to simulation software acceptable form. Verify
that the simulation model executes as intended. Verification techniques include traces,
varying input parameters over their acceptable range and checking the output, substituting
constants for random variables and manually checking results, and animation.
 Step 5. Validate the Model: Compare the model’s performance under known conditio ns
with the performance of the real system. Perform statistical inference tests and get the model
 examined by system experts. Assess the confidence that the end-user places on the model
and address problems if any.
 Step 6. Document Model for Future Use: Document objectives, assumptions and input
variables in detail. Document the experimental design.
 Step 7. Select Appropriate Experimental Design: Select a performance measure, a few input
variables that are likely to influence it, and the levels of each input variable. Generally, in
stationary systems, the steady-state behavior of the response variable is of interest. Ascertain
whether a terminating or a nonterminating simulation run is appropriate. Select the run
length. Select appropriate starting conditions. Select the length of the warm-up period, if
required. Decide the number of independent runs – each run uses a different random number
stream and the same starting conditions – by considering output data sample size. The
sample size must be large enough (at least 3-5 runs for each configuration) to provide the
required confidence in the performance measure estimates. Alternately, use common
random numbers to compare alternative configurations by using a separate random number
stream for each sampling process in a configuration. Identify output data most likely to be
correlated.
 Step 8. Establish Experimental Conditions for Runs: Address the question of obtaining
accurate information and the most information from each run. Determine if the system is
stationary (performance measure does not change over time) or non-stationary (performance
measure changes over time).
 Step 9. Perform Simulation Runs: Perform runs according to steps 7-8 above.
 Step 10. Interpret and Present Results: Compute numerical estimates (e.g., mean, confidence
intervals) of the desired performance measure for each configuration of interest. Test
hypotheses about system performance. Construct graphical displays (e.g., pie charts,
histograms) of the output data. Document results and conclusions.
 Step 11. Recommend Further Courses of Action: This may include further experiments to
increase the precision and reduce the bias of estimators, to perform sensitivity analyses, etc.

Modelling Procedure
In modelling we construct a suitable representation of an identified real world problem, obtain
solution(s) for that representation and interpret each solution in terms of the real situation. The
steps involved in modelling are as follows:
1. Examine the real world situation.
2. Extract the essential features from the real world situation.
3. Construct a model of the real (object or system) using just the essential features identified.
4. Solve and experiment with the model.
5. Draw conclusions about the model.
6. If a further refinement necessary, then re-examine the model and readjust parameters and
continue at 4, otherwise continue at 7.
7. Proceed with implementation.

Explanation of the Steps

Begin with the real world situation, which is to be investigated with a view to solving some
problem or improving that situation.
The first important step is to extract from the real world situation the essential features to be
included in the model. Include only factors that make the model a meaningful representation of
reality, while not creating a model, which is difficult by including many variables that do not
have much effect. Factors to be considered include ones over which management has control and
external factors beyond management control. For the factors included, assumptions have to be
made about their behaviour.
Run (simulate) the model and measure what happens. For example, if we have simulation of a
queuing situation where two servers are employed, we can run this for hundreds of customers
passing through the system and obtain results such as the average length of the queue and the
average waiting time per customer. We can then run it with three servers, say, and see what new
values are obtained for these parameters. Many such runs can be carried out making different
changes to the structure and assumptions of the model.
In the case of a mathematical model we have to solve a set of equations of some sort, e.g. linear
programming problem where we have to solve a set of constraints as simultaneous equations, or
in stock control – where we have to use previously accumulated data to predict the future value of
a particular variable.
When we have solved our mathematical model or evaluated some simulation runs, we can now
draw some conclusions about the model. For example, if we have the average queue length and
the average waiting time for a queuing situation varied in some ways, we can use this in
conjunction with information on such matters as the wage-rates for servers and value of time lost
in the queue to arrive at decisions on the best way to service the queue.
Finally, we use our conclusions about the model to draw some conclusions about the original real
world situation. The validity of the conclusions will depend on how well our model actually
represented the real world situation.
Usually the first attempt at modelling the situation will almost certainly lead to results at variance
with reality. We have to look back at the assumptions in the model and adjust them. The model
must be rebuilt and new results obtained. Usually, a large number of iterations of this form will
be required before acceptable model is obtained. When an acceptable model has been obtained, it
is necessary to test the sensitivity of that model to possible changes in condition.
The modelling process can then be considered for implementation when it is decided that the
model is presenting the real world (object or system) sufficiently well for conclusions drawn from
it to be a useful guide to action.
The model can be solved by hand, especially if it is simple. It could take time to arrive at an
acceptable model.

Advantages

 Easy to understand − Allows to understand how the system really operates without
working on real-time systems.
 Easy to test − Allows to make changes into the system and their effect on the output without
working on real-time systems.
 Easy to upgrade − Allows to determine the system requirements by applying differe nt
configurations.
 Easy to identifying constraints − Allows to perform bottleneck analysis that causes delay
in the work process, information, etc.
 Easy to diagnose problems − Certain systems are so complex that it is not easy to
understand their interaction at a time. However, Modelling & Simulation allows to
understand all the interactions and analyze their effect. Additionally, new policies,
operations, and procedures can be explored without affecting the real system.

Disadvantages

 Designing a model is an art which requires domain knowledge, training and experience.
 Operations are performed on the system using random number, hence difficult to predict the
result.
  Simulation requires manpower and it is a time-consuming process.
 Simulation results are difficult to translate. It requires experts to understand.
 Simulation process is expensive.

Application Areas
Modelling & Simulation can be applied to the following areas –

Military applications,

Training & support,

Designing semiconductors, telecommunications,

Civil engineering designs & presentations, and

E-business models. etc