Probability and Statistics I

Probability
Probability
Probability is a ratio. It is usually written as a proper fraction. It can also be expressed as a
decimal or a percentage.
n(E)
P(E) 
n(S)
Number of favourable outcomes for E

Number of all possible outcomes

Properties of Probability
1. P(E)  0, E is an impossible event.
2. P(E)  1, E is certain event.
3. 0  P(E)  1
4. P(E)  P(E)  1
P(E)  1  P(E)

Possibility Diagrams and Tree Diagrams

When an experiment involving two events is complex, we use the Possibility Diagram or the
Tree Diagram to list the possible outcomes of the same space.

Example 1
A pair of fair dice is tossed. Let X denote the sum shown on both dice. Find the probability
that: (a) X  6, (b) X > 10, (c) X < 13, (d) X  13.
Solution:
Since one die can have 6 possible outcomes, two dice can have 6 × 6  36 possible outcomes.
A possibility diagram is drawn to show all the possible sums.
1st die
 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2nd die 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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5 3 1
(a) P(X  6)  (b) P(X > 10)  
36 36 12
36 0
(b) P(X < 13)  1 (d) P(X  13)  0
36 36

Example 2
Three unbiased coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting
(a) 3 tails, (b) 2 heads and 1 tail.
Solution:
First coin Second coin Third coin Outcome
H HHH
H
T HHT
H
H HTH
T
T HTT

H THH
H
T THT
T
H TTH
T
T TTT
There are 8 equal likely outcomes.
(a) P(3 tails)  P(TTT)
1

8
(b) E  {HHT, HTH, THH}
3
 P(2 heads and 1 tail) 
8
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Addition of Probabilities
For two mutually exclusive events A and B,
P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)

Example 1
1 1 1
The probabilities of three teams, A, B and C, winning a basketball match are , and
2 3 5
respectively. Find the probability that
(a) B loses, (b) either A or B wins, (c) nether B nor C wins.
Solution:
(a) P(B loses)  1  P(B wins)
1
1
3
2

3
(b) P(A or B wins)  P(A wins)  P(B wins)
1 1
 
2 3
5

6
(c) P(B or C wins)  P(B wins)  P(C wins)
1 1
 
3 5
8

15
P(neither B nor C wins)  1  P(B or C wins)
8
1
15
7

15

Multiplication of Probabilities
If A and B are independent event,
P(A and B)  P(A) × P(B)
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Example 1
The probability that Danny oversleeps is 0.3. If he oversleeps, the probability that he is late is
0.8. If he does not oversleep, the probability that he is late is 0.1.
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.
(b) Find the probability that he is late.
Late
0.8
Oversleeps
0.3 ( ) ________

________
( ) ( )
____________

( ) ________
Solution:
(a) Late
0.8
Oversleeps
0.3 (0.2) Not late

Late
(0.7) (0.1)
Does not oversleep

(0.9) Not late

(b) P(late)  P(oversleeps, late)  P(does not oversleep, late)
 (0.3 × 0.8)  (0.7 × 0.1)
 0.24  0.07
 0.31

Example 2
The diagram shows three identical smaller circles inside a larger circle. O is the centre of the
large and one of the small circles. A point is chosen at random inside the large circle. Find the
probability that it lies inside the shaded region.

O•
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Solution:

O•
x
•
x
x

Let the radius of the smaller circle be x cm.

 Radius of the larger circle  3x cm.
Area of larger circle  (3x) 2

 9x 2 cm2

Area of smaller circle  x 2 cm 2

Area of shaded region  9x 2  3  x 2

 9x 2  3x 2

 6x 2 cm2
Area of shaded region
P(inside shaded region) 
Area of larger circle

6 x 2

9 x 2
2

3

Calculating Probability from Venn Diagrams

Example 1
In a survey, 25 people were asked to say if they liked fruit and if they liked vegetables. 15
people said they liked vegetables and 18 said they liked fruit. Assuming that everyone surveyed liked
fruit or vegetables or both, draw a Venn diagram and use it to work out the probability that a person
chosen at random from this group will like both fruit and vegetables.
Solution:
S

F V

10 8 7
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S  {number of people surveyed}, n(S)  25

F  {people who like fruit}, so n(F)  18

V  {people who like vegetables}, so n(V)  15
n(F)  n(V)  18  15  33
But the total number of people surveyed was only 25.
33  25  8
So 8 people must have said they like both fruit and vegetables.
n(F  V)  8

Example 2
The Venn diagram shows the possible outcomes when a six-sided dice is rolled.
Set A  {prime numbers} and Set B  {odd numbers}.
Use the diagram to find the probability that a number is either odd or prime.
G

A B
3
2 1 4
5
6

Solution:
P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B)
3
P(A) 
6
3
P(B) 
6
2
P(A and B) 
6
3 3 2 4 2
P(A or B)     
6 6 6 6 3
(or)
1 2 1 4 2
P(A  B)     
6 6 6 6 3
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Conditional Probability
P(A  B)
For two event A and B, P(B given that A has happened)  .
P(A)
For dependent event, the outcome of the first event affects the probability of the second.
Suppose you have an apple, an orange and a banana and you plan to eat only two of fruits.
Once you have eaten the first fruit the options for your second fruit are dependent on what fruit you
ate.
1 1
P(apple)  , then P(orange or banana)  given that you have eaten the apple.
3 2

Example 1
There are 21 students in a class, 12 are boys and 9 are girls. The teacher chooses two different
students at random to answer questions.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the situation.
(b) Find the probability that:
(i) both students are boys (BB)
(ii) both students are girls (GG)
(iii) one student is a girl and the other is a boy.
(c) The teacher chooses a third student at random. What is the probability that:
(i) all three students are boys
(ii) at least one of the students is a girl?
Solution: B
(a)
B

(b) G
12 11 11
(i) P(BB)   
21 20 35
9 8 6
(ii) P(GG)   
21 20 35
12 9 9 12 18
(iii) P(BG)  P(GB)     
21 20 21 20 35
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First student Second student Third student
(c) B
B
G
B
B
G
G

B
B
G
G
B
G
G
12 11 10 22
(i) P(BBB)    
21 20 19 133
(ii) P(at least one G)  1  P(all boys)
22
1
133
111

133

Example 2
In a group of 50 students, 36 students work on tablet computers, 20 work on laptops and 12
work on neither of these. A student is chosen at random. What is the probability that this student
(a) works on a tablet and a laptop computer,
(b) works on at least one type of computer,
(c) works on a tablet given that he or she works on a laptop,
(d) doesn’t work on a laptop, given that he or she works on a tablet.
Solution:
T  {students who work on tablets}
n(T)  36
L  {students who work on laptops}
n(L)  20
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50  12  38, so there are 38 students in T and L combined.

36  20  56, but there are only 38 students in T and L combined.
58  38  18, so 18 students work on both (T  L).

G
T L

18 18 2

12

18 9
(a) P(works on both)  P(T  L)  
50 25
12 38 19
(b) P(works on at least one)  1  P(works on neither)  1   
50 50 25
P(L and T) n(L  T) 18 9
(c) P(T given that L has happened)    
P(L) n(L) 20 10
P(L and T) n(L  T) 18 1
(d) P(Not L given T has happened)    
P(T) n(T) 36 2

Expected frequency  number of trials × probability