Basic Concepts of Probability

Experiment:
An experiment is an act that can be repeated under given identical conditions.

Example: Throwing a die, tossing a coin, drawing cards from a bridge deck are the examples
of experiment.

Trial:
Each of the repetition in an experiment is called a trial. This means that trial is a
special case of experiment. Experiment may be a trial or two or more trials.

Outcomes:
The results of an experiment are known as outcomes.

Examples
 If we throw a die we get 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6. So that individually 1 is an
outcome, 2 is an outcome.
 If we toss a coin we get head or tail. Individually head and trial are two outcomes.

Sample space:
A sample space is the set of all outcomes.

Example

 If we throw a die the outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Then S  {1, 2,3, 4,5,6} is a
sample space.
 If we toss a coin then the outcomes are head (H) and tail (T). Then S  {H , T } is a
sample space.

Event:
An event is the collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.

Example: If we throw a die the outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Then the outcomes of even
numbers are 2, 4, 6. Then A  {2, 4,6} is called an event of even numbers.

Sure Event:
An event is called sure event when it always happens.
The probability of a sure event is 1.

Example: Today the sun rises in the east is a sure event and its probability is 1.

Md. Zahidul Alam

Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
1
Impossible Event:
An event is called impossible event when it never happens.
The probability of an impossible event is 0.

Example: A river does not contain any fish is an impossible event and its probability is 0.

Equally Likely Outcomes:

Outcomes of an experiment are said to be equally likely if we have no reason to
expect any one rather than the other.

Example: i) In tossing a fair coin, the outcomes „head‟ and „tail‟ are equally likely.
ii) In throwing a balanced die, all the six faces are equally likely.
iii) Drawing a card from a bridge deck, all the 52 cards are equally likely to
come.
Mutually Exclusive event:
When an event occurs and none of the other events will occur at the same time, then the event
is called mutually exclusive event.

Example
If we toss a coin two outcomes head (H) and tail (T) are mutually exclusive event. Because if
it appears head (H) or tail (T) not both head and tail at the same time.

Formally, two events A and B are mutually exclusive if and only if A B   .

Favorable Outcomes:
The outcomes of an experiment are said to be favorable to an event if they entail the
happening of the event.

Example: i) In throwing a die, the favorable outcomes of the even numbers on the faces of
the die will be 2, 4 and 6.
ii) In drawing a card from a bridge deck, the favorable outcomes of the event heart will be 13
because it may be any one of these 13 hearts.

Exhaustive events :
The total number of possible outcomes in any trial is known as exhaustive events or
exhaustive cases.

Example
 In tossing of a coin there are two exhaustive cases viz, head and tail.
 In throwing of a die, there are six exhaustive cases since any one of the 6 faces 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6 may come upper most.

Md. Zahidul Alam

Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
2
Definition of Probability:
There are mainly two definitions of probability, namely
1) Mathematical or classical or a priori definition of probability
2) Statistical or empirical or frequency or a posteriori definition of probability.

Classical or a priori probability:

If there are „n‟ mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive outcomes of an
experiment and if „m‟ of these outcomes are favorable to a event A, then the probability of
the event A is denoted by p (A) and defined as
Favourable Outcomes of an event A m
p  p ( A)  
Total Number of Outcomes of the Experiment n

Limitations
 The classical probability fails to define probability when the total numbers of possible
outcomes are infinite.
 It is not always to enumerate.

Statistical or empirical probability:

If an experiment is repeated a large number of times under the same conditions, then
the probability of an event E is the limiting value of the ratio of the number of times the event
E happens to the number of trials as the number of trials become indefinitely large is called
the probability of happening of the event E. It is assumed that the limit is finite and unique.

Symbolically, if in n trials an event E happens m times, then the probability p of the

happening of the event E is given by
m
p  p  E   lim .
n  n

Properties of probability:
Let E be an experiment. Also let S be a sample space associated with E , with each
event A we associate a real number, designed by P  A  and called the probability of A
satisfying the following properties:

 0  p  A  1 .

 p  S   1.

 If A and B are mutually exclusive events, p  A B   p  A   p  B  .

Example
Md. Zahidul Alam
Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
3
A bag contains 4 white and 6 black balls. If one ball is drawn at random from the bag, what is
the probability that the ball is

(a) black (b) white (c) white or black and (d) red.

Solution

Hence the total numbers of balls are 10. Since one ball is drawn from the bag, there are 10
mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive outcomes of this experiment.

(a) Let A be the event that the ball is black, then the number of favorable outcomes to A
is 6. So that
number of black balls 6
p  A   .
total number of balls 10

(b) Let B be the event that the ball is white, then the favorable outcomes corresponding
to B are 4. Therefore
4
p  B  .
10

(c) Let C be the event that the ball is white or black, then the favorable outcomes
corresponding to C are 10. Therefore
10
p C    1.
10

(d) Let D be the event that the drawn ball is red, then the favorable outcomes
corresponding to D is zero. Therefore
0
p  D   0 .
10

Example
Three contractor A , B and C are biding for the construction of a new cinema hall. Some
4
expert in this industry believes that A has exactly half the chance that B has, B in turn is
5
th as like as C to win the contract. What is the probability for each to win the contract if the
expert‟s estimates are accurate?

4
Solution: Let the probability of C ‟s wining the contract is x . Then p  C   x , p  B   x
5
4 1
and p  A   . x . We know that total probability is one. So that
5 2

Md. Zahidul Alam

Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
4
 4 2
x x  x 1
5 5
5x  4 x  2 x
 1
5
11x
 1
5
5
x 
11

5 4 2
Hence, p  C   , p  B  and p  A   .
11 11 11

Example

Tickets are numbered from 1 to 100. They are well shuffled and a ticket is drawn at random.
What is the probability that the drawn ticket has
1) An odd number
2) A number 4 or multiple of 4
3) A number which is greater than 70 and
4) A number which is square?

Solution

Since there are 100 tickets, the total number of exclusive mutually exclusive and equally
likely case is 100.

1) Let A denote the event that the ticket drawn an odd number. Since there are 50 odd
number tickets so the number of cases favorable to the event A is 50.
50
 p  A   0.5 .
100

2) Let B denote the event that the ticket drawn has a number 4 or multiple of 4. The
numbers favorable to event B are 4, 8, 12, 16, 20,...,92, 96, 100 . The total number
100
of cases will be  25 .
4
25
 p  B   0.25 .
100

3) Let C denote the event that the drawn ticket has a number greater than 70. Since the
number greater than 70 are 71, 72, 73,..., 100 . Therefore, 30 cases are favorable to
the event C .

Md. Zahidul Alam

Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
5
 30
 p C    0.3 .
100
4) Let D denote the event that the drawn ticket has a number which is a square. Since
the squares between 1 and 100 are 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81 and 100. So the
cases favorable to event D are 10 in number. Hence,
10
 p  D   0.1 .
100

Conditional probability

Let A and B be two events. The conditional probability of event A given that B has
occurred, is defined by the symbol p  A B  and is found to be:

p  A B
p  A B  ; provided p  B   0 .
p  B

p  A B
Similarly, p  B A  ; provided p  A   0 .
p  A
Example
A hamburger chain found that 75% of all customers use mustard, 80% use ketchup and 65%
use both. What are the probabilities that a ketchup user uses mustard and that a mustard user
uses ketchup?

Solution:
Let A be the event “customer uses mustard” and B be the event “customer uses ketchup”.
Thus, we have, p  A  0.75 , p  B   0.80 and p  A B   0.65 .

The probability that a ketchup user uses mustard is the conditional probability of event A ,
given event B is

p  A B  0.65
p  A B    0.8125 .
p  B 0.80

Similarly, the probability that a mustard user use ketchup is

p  A B  0.65
p  B A    0.8667
p  A 0.75

Md. Zahidul Alam

Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
6
Example
2 5
Mr. Ali feels that the probability that he will pass Mathematics is and Statistics is . If the
3 6
3
probability that he will pass both the course is . What is the probability that he will pass at
5
least one of the course?

Solution:
Let M and S be the events that he will pass the courses Mathematics and Statistics
respectively. The event M S means that at least one of M or S occurs. Therefore
pM S   p(M or S )
 p  he pass at least one of the course 
= p (M) + p (S) + p (M ∩ S)
2 5 3 9
    .
3 6 5 10
Example
3
Mr. Rahim feels that the probability that he will get A in Calculus is , A in Statistics is
4
4 3
and A in both the courses is . What is the probability that Mr. Y will get
5 5
a) At least one A
b) No A ‟s?

Solution

Let C be the event that Mr. Y will get A in Calculus and S be the event that he will get A
3 4 3
in Statistics. We have, p  C   , p  S   and p  C and S   p  C S   .
4 5 5

a) p  at least one A  p  C S
 p C   p  S   p C S
3 4 3 19
   
4 5 5 20

b)
p  no A ' s   p  CS 
19 1
 1  p C S   1 
20 20

Md. Zahidul Alam

Lecturer of Statistics
BSFMSTU, Jamalpur
7