Counting Methods and Probability!

! Learning Objectives!
• Determine specific values in defined sequences.!

• Calculate means and totals of sequences of consecutive integers.!

• Determine numbers of arrangements, permutations, and combinations when special

conditions are present.!

• Compute probabilities of single and multiple independent events.!

• Derive conditional probabilities for multiple non-independent events.!

Counting Methods and Probability!

Sequences!
Sequence: an ordered list of numbers!

Sequence notation: subscripts denote the location of a number!

Examples:!
s3 is the third number in a sequence!
sn is the n th number in a sequence!
sn 1 is the number before the n th number in a sequence!
!
sn + 1 is the number after the n th number in a sequence!

Key parameters needed:!

Value and placement of one or more elements in the sequence!

Relationship between the elements in the sequence!

Counting Methods and Probability!

Sequences!
What is the value of r4 in the sequence rn = rn–1 + 3, where r2 = 7?

Counting Methods and Probability!

Sequences!
1. What is the value of w6 in a sequence?

(1) wn+2 = wn+1 + 4

(2) w1 = 5

Counting Methods and Probability!

Sequences of Consecutive Integers!
Median of a set of consecutive integers: the average of the smallest and largest values!

Average (mean) of a set of consecutive integers: the median of the set of integers!

The number of values in a set of consecutive integers: the largest minus the smallest value, plus 1

Total sum of a set of consecutive integers: the number of values in the set times the average

Counting Methods and Probability!

Sequences of Consecutive Integers!
2. What is the sum of all the integers between 17 and 43 inclusive?

!(A) 60
(B) 531
(C) 780
(D) 810
(E) 871

Counting Methods and Probability!

Sequences of Consecutive Integers!
3. A sequence consists of all the positive integers less than 200 that are multiples of 5.
What is the sum of the numbers in the sequence?

!(A) 1,000
(B) 3,800
(C) 3,900
(D) 4,000
(E) 10,000

Counting Methods and Probability!

Arrangements, Permutations, and Combinations!
Arrangements of n items: An = n!!
n!
Permutations of k items chosen from n items:! nPk = ! (n – k)!!
n!
Combinations of k items chosen from n items: nCk = ! k!(n – k)!!

How many distinct arrangements can be made from the letters AAAABBBCCD?

n!
Removing permutations of look-alike elements:
a! b! c! ...!

Counting Methods and Probability!

Arrangements, Permutations, and Combinations!
4. In how many different ways can 3 sophomores, 3 juniors, and 4 seniors be standing in a
line if the 3 sophomores are next to each other, the 3 juniors are next to each other, and the
4 seniors are next to each other?

!(A) 864
(B) 5,184

(C) 6,048

(D) 7,560

(E) 8,640

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability of a Single Event!
Probability of an event: the likelihood that an event will occur!

# of desired outcomes!
P (event) = !
# of possible outcomes!

The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes: 1

What is the probability of rolling a “6” on a fair die?

!
What is the probability of not rolling a “6” on a fair die?

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability of Multiple Events!
Independent Events: the outcome of one event does not affect the probability of the other event!

Probability of Event A AND Event B = P(A) x P(B)!

What is the probability of getting a head on both the first and the second tosses of a fair coin?
!

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability of Multiple Events!
Probability of Event A OR Event B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)!

What is the probability that a card selected from a fair deck will be either an ace or a diamond?
!

Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events A or B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)!

What is the probability of rolling either a 1 or a 2 with a fair die?

!

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability!
5. What is the probability of rolling exactly one 3 on two rolls of a fair die?!

(A) 1/12

(B) 1/4

(C) 5/18

(D) 1/3

(E) 1/2

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability!
6. A bag contains only 6 red disks and 4 blue disks. If 2 disks are drawn consecutively
at random without replacing the first disk, what is the probability that both disks will
be blue?!

(A) 1/15

(B) 1/12

(C) 2/15

(D) 1/5

(E) 2/5

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability!
7. What is the probability of tossing exactly 3 heads in 4 flips of a fair coin?

(A) 0.2

(B) 0.25

(C) 0.33

(D) 0.5

(E) 0.75

Counting Methods and Probability!

Probability!
8. What is the probability of rolling a 6 at least once but no more than three times
on four rolls of a fair 6-sided die?!

(A) 75/162

(B) 315/648

(C) 165/324

(D) 41/81

(E) 335/648

Counting Methods and Probability!

Takeaways!
• Sequences are determined by the relationship between the elements and at least
one value.!

• Specific formulas apply to sequences of consecutive integers.!

• Special conditions can reduce the number of arrangements, permutations, or

combinations for a scenario.!

• The “standard” formula for probability assumes equally likely outcomes.!

• Incorporate the considerations of independence and mutual exclusivity when

determining probabilities for multiple events.!

Counting Methods and Probability!

Homework!
9. A sequence has the following values: f3 = 1, f4 = 2, f5 = 3, f6 = 5, f7 = 8, f8 = 13.
What is the value of f1?!

(A) -2

(B) -1

(C) 0

(D) 1

(E) The value cannot be determined

Counting Methods and Probability!

Homework!
10. A charity sold raffle tickets numbered 832147 to 833695 inclusive for a fund-raising
event. Kendria purchased ticket numbers 832179 through 832200 and later purchased
an additional 6 tickets. There are 3 grand prizes in the raffle. If the charity did not sell
148 of its tickets, what is the probability that Kendria will win one of the grand prizes if
the charity sets a rule that no person can win more than one of the grand prizes?!

(A) 0.01

(B) 0.02

(C) 0.03

(D) 0.06

(E) 0.12

Counting Methods and Probability!

Homework!
11. When a basketball player is fouled by an opponent while attempting to make a shot, the
player who is fouled is entitled to shoot two “free throws.” Each successful free throw attempt
is worth 1 point. A certain player has a probability of making 70% of her first free throw
attempts. If she makes that first attempt, her probability of making the second increases to
80%, but if she misses the first attempt, her probability of making the second shot decreases
to 60%. If this person is fouled while attempting a shot, how many points can she be expected
to score with her free throws? !

(A) 1.32

(B) 1.40

(C) 1.44

(D) 1.48

(E) 1.56

Counting Methods and Probability!

Homework!
12. A board game has a spinner that has 5 equal sectors: red, green, blue, yellow, and
orange. The result of any given spin is equally likely to be any of the 5 colors. What is
the probability of getting exactly 2 green spins out of 5? !

(A) 128/625

(B) 1/4

(C) 1/3

(D) 48/125

(E) 2/5

Counting Methods and Probability!

 Counting Methods and Probability
Answers and Explanations
1. Correct Answer: T
The question asks for the value of the 6th number in a sequence. There is nothing to simplify in the
question stem. Recall that a sequence can be determined from the value and position of an “anchor”
number and the mathematical relationship between numbers in the sequence.
Statement (1) informs that the value of a number in the sequence equals the previous value plus 4.
However, there is no information about the value of any specific number in the sequence, so Statement
(1) is insufficient. Eliminate 1 and E.
Statement (2) provides the value and position of one number in the sequence. However, no information
is given about the relationship between numbers in the sequence, so Statement (2) is insufficient.
Eliminate 2.
Combining the two statements, you know both of the elements needed to determine any value of the
sequence--the relationship between the numbers (wn+2 = wn+1 + 4), and an anchoring point (w1 = 5).

2. Correct Answer: (D) 810

The question asks for the sum of all of the integers between 17 and 43. That value will be the average of
the sequence times the number of values. The average can be found by averaging the highest and
!"!!"
lowest values: = 30. The number of values is the difference between the highest and lowest plus
!
1: 43 – 17 + 1 = 27. Multiply these values: 30 × 27 = 810.

3. Correct Answer: (C) 3900

The lowest number in the sequence is 5, which is the lowest positive multiple of 5. The highest number
is 195, the largest multiple of 5 that is less than 200.
!"#!!
Since the numbers are all evenly spaced (5 apart) the formula for the average, = 100 , is valid.
!
However, instead of the sequence being 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11........190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195 it will be 5,
10, 15.....185, 190, 195. If all the integers 5 -195 were in the sequence, the number of values would be
195 – 5 + 1 = 191. Since only one-fifth of the numbers are in the sequence, but both end values have to
!"#!! !"#
be accounted for, the number of values in this sequence will be +1= + 1 = 38 + 1 = 39 .
! !
Thus, 39 numbers with an average of 100 will total up to 3900.

4. Correct Answer: (B) 5,184

Break this problem down into two components. First, consider the groups of each class level as
individual objects. These 3 groups could be arranged in 3! = 6 ways. Next, look at the arrangements
within each class grouping. The 3 sophomores could line up in 3! = 6 different ways as can the 3 juniors.
The 4 seniors can have 4! = 24 different orders.
This scenario is made up of several "ands"--How many ways can the 3 groups be arranged AND how
many ways can the sophomores by arranged within their group AND how many ways can the juniors be
arranged AND how many ways can the seniors be arranged, so the total count of possibilities is 6 × 6 × 6
× 24 = 216 × 24. Don't bother with this multiplication; the product will have a one's digit of 4. Only two
choices end with that digit, (A) 864 and (B) 5,184. The product will be >4,000, so select choice (B).
 !
5. Correct Answer: (C)
!"
There are 2 ways to roll exactly one 3 on two rolls of a fair die. You could roll a 3 on the first roll and
something other than a 3 on the second or you could roll something other than a 3 on the first roll and
! ! !
roll a 3 on the second roll. The probability of the first way is × = . The probability of the second
! ! !"
! ! !
way is × = . Since the 3 could be rolled on the first or the second attempt, the total probability is
! ! !"
! ! !" !
+ = , which reduces to .
!" !" !" !"

!
6. Correct Answer: (C)
!"
If the first disk drawn were replaced before the second draw, these would be independent events and
! ! !"
the answer would simply be × = = 0.16. However, the two events are not independent
!!! !!! !""
since the probability of drawing a blue disk the second time is affected by the results of the first draw.
! ! !
Because both draws are blue in this case, P(Blue 2nd draw) = , so the probability of 2 blues is × =
! !" !
!
.
!"

7. Correct Answer: (B) 0.25

The number of total possible outcomes for 4 flips of a coin is 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 24 = 16. If 3 heads are the
result of 4 flips, that means that there is only 1 tail. Sometimes merely listing the desired outcomes is
the most efficient approach rather than relying on formulas. For this situation HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, and
!
THHH are these outcomes. Thus, the probability of tossing 3 heads is = 0.25 .
!"

!!"
8. Correct Answer: (E)
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The only outcomes that do not result in 1, 2, or 3 rolls of six are 0 sixes and 4 sixes. It is more efficient to
find the probabilities of those two outcomes and subtract them from 1 than to calculate the
probabilities of the 3 positive outcomes and add them. Although there are 6 possible values for a roll of
a die, there are only 2 outcomes for each roll in the context of this question: “3” and “not 3.” These 2
! ! ! ! ! !
outcomes have probabilities of and respectively. So, the probability of rolling 4 sixes is × × × =
! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !"#
. The probability of rolling 0 sixes is × × × = . The total probability of not obtaining the
!"#×! ! ! ! ! !"#×!
!"#!! !"! !"!
measured result is thus = . This simplifies to , so the probability of getting 1, 2, or 3 sixes
!"#×! !"#×! !"#
!"! !!"
is 1 − = .
!"# !"!

9. Correct Answer: (C) 0

In order to calculate values of a sequence you need to know the formula for the sequence and at least
one "anchor" value. There are several values given for this sequence, so you can "back in" to the formula
in order to determine a value for f1. Since sequences are often determined by the relationships of the
values going from left to right, start with the first few given values to identify the relationship. Looking
at f3 = 1, f4 = 2, and f5 = 3, perhaps the sequence is simply fn = fn–1 + 1. However, f5 = 3 but f6 = 5, so this
"trial balloon" does not work. However, notice that, since 2 + 3 = 5, or f6 = f4 + f5, perhaps the sequence
can be defined as fn = fn-2 + fn-1. Check this formula for f7 : 3 + 5 = 8, which works, and f8 : 8 + 5 = 13, which
is also valid. Now work backwards to determine f1 . Because f4 – f3 = f2 , then f2 = 2 – 1 = 1. Likewise, f1 = 1
– 1 = 0. Alternatively, you could have worked from right to left, 5 + 8 = 13, 3 + 5 = 8, etc., to determine
the relationship, and then worked backward to get the value of f1.

10. Correct Answer: (D) 0.06

Start by calculating the total possible outcomes, which is the number of possible raffle tickets
outstanding. The available tickets totaled 833695 – 832147 + 1 = 1549, but 148 were not sold, so there
were eventually 1401 ticket numbers used in the raffle. Kendria originally purchased 832200 – 832179 +
1 = 22 tickets. After she purchased the additional 6 tickets, Kendria had a total of 28 tickets. Her
!"
probability of winning any one of the prizes is . Given the number of decimal places in the answer
!"#!
choices, round the denominator to 1400 and divide both the numerator and denominator by 14:
!" !
= = 0.02 . Since Kendria could win the first OR the second OR the third grand prize and the
!"## !""
rule disallowing multiple grand prize winners means that these are mutually exclusive events, her total
probability of winning is 0.02 + 0.02 + 0.02 = 0.06.

11. Correct Answer: (C) 1.44

There are 4 possible outcomes for this scenario. 1) Make the first AND miss the second, resulting in 1
point; OR 2) Make both the first AND the second for 2 points; OR 3) Miss the first AND make the second
for 1 point; OR 4) Miss both the first AND second shots, scoring no points at all.

Outcome 1) P(Make 1st) = 0.7 P(Miss 2nd) = 1.0 – 0.8 = 0.2

P(Outcome 1) = 0.7 × 0.2 = 0.14
Outcome 2) P(Make 1st) = 0.7 P(Make 2nd) = 0.8
P(Outcome 2) = 0.7 × 0.8 = 0.56
Outcome 3) P(Miss 1st) = 0.3 P(Miss 2nd) = 1.0 – 0.6 = 0.4
P(Outcome 4) = 0.3 × 0.4 = 0.12
Outcome 4) P(Miss 1st) = 1.0 – 0.7 = 0.3 P(Make 2nd) = 0.6
P(Outcome 3) = 0.3 × 0.6 = 0.18

This is now a weighted average scenario:

Outcome Points Percentage Weighted Value

1 1 0.14 0.14
2 2 0.56 1.12
3 0 0.12 0.00
4 1 0.18 0.18
Total 1.00 1.44
12. Correct Answer: (A) 128/625
Since there are two outcomes, "green" or "not green," the total number of possible outcomes is 25 = 32.
For any spin, P(G) = ⅕ and P(not G) = 1 – ⅕ = ⅘. Thus the probability of any one combination of spins
that produces 2 greens and 3 other colors is ⅕ × ⅕ × ⅘ × ⅘ × ⅘. However, that is that probability of only
!! !×!
one particular order. There will be a total of = = 10 different ways that this could occur.
!!!! !
!"×!×!×! !×!×!×!
Multiply this by the probability of one particular occurrence to get the answer: = =
!×!×!×!×! !×!×!×!
!"#
.
!"#