Stuvia 5689576 Unit 10 Big Data Analytics Assignment C Distinction
Stuvia 5689576 Unit 10 Big Data Analytics Assignment C Distinction
ASSIGNMENT C (Distinction)
written by
tomisinlayode
www.stuvia.com
Assessor:
Name:
Student No:
Introduction.....................................................................................................3
STUDENT ) 1
P4.....................................................................................................................4
Regression Analysis of Uk Car Industry............................................................7
Ford............................................................................................................7
Normal distribution ford.............................................................................9
Normal distribution VOLKSWAGEN...........................................................10
Audi..........................................................................................................11
Normal distribution for AUDI....................................................................12
BMW.........................................................................................................12
Normal distribution for BMW....................................................................13
Mercedes..................................................................................................14
Normal distribution for Mercedes.............................................................15
Probability distribution...................................................................................15
Trends............................................................................................................16
The decrease and increase in car sales...................................................19
P6...................................................................................................................21
Recommendations/considerations for the analysis.....................................21
Considerations.........................................................................................21
Recommendations...................................................................................22
M4/M5............................................................................................................23
M6/D3............................................................................................................24
Conclusion...................................................................................................24
Factors affecting car sales..........................................................................24
Final Thought..............................................................................................27
Bibliography...................................................................................................28
STUDENT ) 2
Introduction
As an IT development trainee at a car dealership in Southern England, I am
tasked with a critical project. The directors are considering whether to switch
car brands or add new ones. I need to examine the rise in new automobile
registrations for different automakers to help me make this selection. The
data will be prepared by focusing on new car registrations and combining it
over several years. I will be using basic and advanced statistical methods, I
will analyze trends, averages, variations, mean, range etc. and comparisons
between different data sets. This analysis will result in two reports: a detailed
report for the directors, providing in-depth insights, and a summary for
branch sales managers, presenting key findings in a concise format. These
reports will provide accurate and relevant information, even for those with a
mathematical background, and will be presented clearly and appropriately.
My goal is to make the data accessible and useful, also guiding the
dealership's leadership through this critical business decision with
confidence and clarity.
STUDENT ) 3
P4
P5
STUDENT ) 4
Mean
As you can see from the screenshot, I calculated the average for each car
number registered each year from 2021 to 2009 and we can see that out of
all the 6 cars Ford came with the highest number of registered cars
maintaining it as the number 1 top which brings Mercedes to having the
lowest number of registered cars for from 2021 to 2009. The meaning of the
dataset is the average number of registrations per year, with Ford having the
highest average number of registrations. Vauxhall follows as the second
highest, suggesting strong but slightly less consistent sales compared to
Ford. Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes have lower means, indicating
fewer registrations on average, with Mercedes having the lowest.
Mode
STUDENT ) 5
There is no mode for any of the brands as all yearly registration numbers are
unique. For all the 6 cars none of them had a reoccurring number of
registrations for each year. They either went higher or lower over the years.
Standard deviation
The standard deviation shows how much the number of registrations varies
each year from the mean. Ford and Vauxhall have the highest standard
deviations, suggesting significant yearly fluctuations in their registration
numbers. Volkswagen has the lowest standard deviation, showing more
consistent year-to-year registration numbers. Audi and BMW show moderate
variability, while Mercedes has notable variability but less than Ford and
Vauxhall.
Median
The median is the middle value of the ordered dataset, providing a measure
of the central tendency. Ford has the highest median, suggesting that half of
its yearly registrations are above this number, reinforcing its overall high
registration trend. Vauxhall also has a high median, consistent with its mean,
showing robust sales. Mercedes has the lowest median, highlighting
generally lower registration numbers compared to other brands.
Variance
Range
The range is the difference between the highest and lowest registration
numbers. Ford's high range shows a significant difference between its
highest and lowest registration years, emphasizing high variability. Vauxhall
STUDENT ) 6
Interquartile range
The interquartile range (IQR) is the difference between the third quartile and
the first quartile, representing the spread of the middle 50% of the data.
Ford shows the highest registration numbers and the greatest variability
across the years, making it the most dynamic brand in terms of registrations.
Ford
The Ford graph shows a decline in car sales for Ford, with an R^2 value of
0.9585, indicating high accuracy. However, the data set is influenced by
several factors, making it unreliable. Ford was the UK's leading car
manufacturer in 2099, with 15.8% of the market selling 310,796 vehicles. In
2012, sales were 277,908, a 2% decline, but Ford remained the top seller. In
2015, sales increased to 330,082, but a further decline to 12.7%. In 2019,
sales declined to 232,896, representing 10.1%. By 2021, sales had declined
to 114.537, representing 7% of the market, an 8.8% decline from 2009. Ford
STUDENT ) 7
was the number one car seller up to 2020, but in 2021, it dropped to third.
The data is influenced by several factors, making it difficult to solely rely on
the data.
The normal distribution for ford shows the distribution of values associated
with Ford, such as stock prices or other metrics. The y-axis represents the
probability density function (pdf) values for those corresponding x-axis
values, indicating how often each value occurs within the distribution. The
table lists specific values and their corresponding probabilities, derived from
the normal distribution. The peak of the curve represents the mean or most
likely value in the distribution, with values around 261.385 having the
highest probability (pdf = 0.006111827). The spread of the distribution
indicates the standard deviation, with wider curves indicating larger standard
deviations and narrower curves indicating smaller standard deviations. The
normal distribution of values can be used for stock analysis, risk
management, and financial assessments. Understanding the normal
distribution of values helps in making data-driven decisions, allowing
companies to predict potential losses and prepare for them. For example,
calculating the probability of Ford's value between two specific points can be
done by integrating the area under the curve using the provided pdf values.
STUDENT ) 8
The chart depicts the normal distribution for Ford, a bell-shaped curve that
represents the probability of different outcomes. The X-Axis (Values)
represents different possible outcomes, while the Y-Axis (Probabilities) shows
the likelihood of each outcome. The highest point on the curve is around the
middle values, while the lower ends represent less likely outcomes.
Examples from the chart include a very small chance of 114.537
(0.00044975), a higher chance of 276.153 (0.00600279), and a less likely
chance of 330.082 (0.00363727). This information is useful for investors to
gauge potential risks and returns, and for businesses to plan better by
knowing the most probable outcomes. In summary, the chart helps investors
gauge potential risks and returns, while businesses can make more informed
decisions based on these probabilities. The chart helps investors gauge
potential risks and returns, while businesses can plan better by knowing the
most probable outcomes.
Volkswagen
In this dataset pertaining to Volkswagen, we observe a gradual decrease in
car sales over time. Various factors that could have contributed to this trend
will be explored in greater detail in this report. The R^2 value, which stands
at 0.7398, is close to 1.0, but this suggests that our data may contain some
inaccuracies. Nonetheless, it's important to note that this value is not always
a reliable indicator and cannot accurately predict other factors that may
influence the data. As a result, we can conclude that there is indeed a
consistent downward trend in this dataset. Volkswagen car sales have also
declined, but only marginally in 2009 car sales were 158,336 representing
STUDENT ) 9
8% of the market share, by 2019 this had risen to 198,608 and 8.7% of the
UK car market. In 2021 Volkswagen had declined to 146,333 car sales but
this still represented 8.9% of car sales. The average car sales were 184.824
the 2021 decline of 38.491, but this decline is relative as Volkswagen had
moved to the number one UK car seller this is represented in the graph
above. The regression analysis illustrates that Volkswagen are in long term
decline if not as rapid a decline as Ford and Vauxhall. Volkswagen are now
the UK number one car seller.
The normal distribution chart for Volkswagen is a bell-shaped curve that shows the probability of
different outcomes for the company. The chart consists of X-Axis (Values) and Y-Axis (Probabilities), with
the highest point representing the most likely outcomes around the middle values. The lower ends
represent less likely outcomes. Examples from the chart include 146.231 (0.004588909), 179.699
STUDENT ) 10
(0.016191501), and 219.73 (0.005795663). The chart helps investors understand potential risks and
returns, while businesses can plan their strategies better by knowing the most probable outcomes. The
highest points on the curve indicate that values around 171.14 to 198.608 are the most likely outcomes,
while values like 146.231 or 219.73 are less likely due to their lower ends. In essence, the chart provides
a more accurate representation of the probabilities of different outcomes for Volkswagen, allowing for
more informed decisions based on these probabilities.
Audi
The graph and table show percentage data from 2009 to 2021, analyzing
data points from 2009 to 2021. The linear trend line equation is y = 0.012x -
2.823, with a moderate fit to the data points. Despite some fluctuations in
the data, there is an overall increasing trend in the percentage data over the
years. The highest value is in 2021 (7.1%), while the lowest is in 2009
(4.6%). The highest value is in 2021 after a dip to 4.9% in 2019. In the mid-
period (2012-2017) we can see a consistent increase from 6.1% to 6.9%. The
trend shows growth for Audi, but the R-squared value suggests variability
and inconsistencies in year-to-year performance. The significant dip in 2019
(4.9%) and subsequent recovery in 2020 (6.6%) and 2021 (7.1%) may
indicate specific factors affecting these years, such as market conditions,
company strategy changes, or external economic factors. Audi has generally
shown a positive growth trend in the percentage data from 2009 to 2021,
with some fluctuations along the way. The linear trend suggests a gradual
increase over time, although individual yearly performance can vary
significantly.
STUDENT ) 11
The highest point is closer to the mean, suggesting that registration numbers
near 137,021.08 are more likely. It seems from the reduced spread that most
registration numbers lie in a more constrained range around the mean. In
comparison to Ford, the lower standard deviation (26,398.31) denotes more
consistent performance. Forecasting and strategic planning benefit from this
stability. Audi's reliability. Its dependability as a manufacturer warrants
continued attention.
BMW
The graph and table show BMW's percentage data from 2009 to 2021. The
linear trend line equation is 0.7952, indicating a strong fit to the data points.
The highest value is in 2018 (7.3%), while the lowest is in 2009 (4.9%). The
STUDENT ) 12
The normal distribution chart for BMW is a bell-shaped curve, with the middle
part representing the most common values and the sides tapering off to
show fewer common values. The chart shows the X-axis (values) and Y-Axis
(Probabilities) of different possible outcomes for BMW. The highest point on
the curve indicates the most likely outcomes, which are around the middle
values. The lower ends of the curve represent less likely outcomes. Examples
from the chart include 97.177 (0.004731686), 125.89 (0.012239379), and
180.732 (0.005073371). The chart helps investors understand potential risks
and returns, while businesses can plan their strategies better by knowing the
most probable outcomes. The practical interpretation of the chart is that the
middle values indicate that values around 114.493 to 147.383 are the most
likely outcomes, while less likely values are at the lower ends of the curve.
This helps in making more informed decisions based on these probabilities.
STUDENT ) 13
Mercedes
The linear trend line equation is 0.794, indicating a strong fit to the data
points. The highest value is recorded in 2019 (7.4%), while the lowest is in
2009 (3.7%). The percentages remained relatively high in recent years
(2018-2021), peaking in 2019 (7.4%), but decreased in 2020 (6.8%), and
further in 2021 (6.0%). The mid period (2012-2017) saw consistent growth
from 4.5% to 7.2%, indicating a strong upward trend. The overall trend
indicates significant growth for Mercedes, with the R-squared value
indicating a strong fit along the linear trend line. The data shows a strong
upward trend with some fluctuations, particularly a drop after 2019.
Mercedes has shown a steady and strong growth trend in the percentage
data from 2009 to 2021, with a strong upward trend with some fluctuations,
particularly a drop after 2019.
STUDENT ) 14
The distribution for Mercedes has been done and we can see from the
screenshot above that it starts to grow and then begins to go down when it
reaches its peak back to the starting point of the curve. It is also in a curve,
just like the others
Probability distribution
STUDENT ) 15
The mean, or average, is found in two ways: using probabilities and the usual
method (adding up all the percentages and dividing by the number of years).
In the spreadsheet, the mean calculated with probabilities (column H) is
6.3%, with a variance of 0.003242784 and a standard deviation of 0. 250221405.. This is
done by multiplying each percentage by its probability and then adding
those values up. The mean calculated by directly adding the percentages
and dividing by the number of years also comes out to 6.3%.
Future trends can be predicted using this statistical data, which can also help
with decision-making when it comes to switching manufacturers or opening
new dealerships. These insights are helpful when it comes to our vehicle
dealership's strategic planning, especially given changes in the manufacturer
portfolio. The probability for each outcome is based on how often it occurs
out of the total events, ensuring each percentage is unique and independent.
The fact that the mean from the probability method matches the mean from
the direct calculation shows that the data is reliable, and the events are truly
separate. If the events were not separate, the two mean calculations would
differ because overlapping events would mess up the probabilities and
outcomes.
Trends
From 2009 to 2021, Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, and BMW registered a steady
trend with increasing registrations, peaking around 2016. Post-2016, there
was a noticeable sharp decline, especially evident from 2018 onwards. This
decline could be related to the Diesel gate scandal, which led to loss of
consumer trust and regulatory penalties. Audi registrations rose steadily until
about 2016, after which there was a pronounced drop. Ford registrations
showed a relatively stable trend with minor fluctuations, with a gradual
increase until a peak around 2016, followed by a decline. This could be due
to a strong lineup of models that maintain consistent consumer demand, as
STUDENT ) 16
well as broader industry trends such as the shift towards SUVs and electric
vehicles.
BMW registrations showed a stable trend with peaks around 2015, followed
by a gradual decline. This could be due to increased competition from other
luxury brands and shifts towards electric and hybrid models. Common
factors influencing trends include the Diesel gate scandal, global economic
fluctuations, consumer preferences, technological advancements, and
regulatory changes. The average registrations for each brand provide a
benchmark for understanding their typical market performance. Volkswagen
had around 250,000 registrations, while Audi had approximately 150,000
registrations, Ford had around 200,000 registrations, and BMW had slightly
above 200,000 registrations, indicating consistent performance in the luxury
segment.
STUDENT ) 17
The data shown shows the frequency and annual rankings for several
automakers from 2009 to 2021. Volkswagen distinguishes itself with a
steady top performance, regularly taking first place, especially in the early
and mid-2010s, demonstrating its market presence and resilience. This
consistently high score suggests a strong consumer preference and brand
reputation. Volkswagen's ability to retain top ranks despite obstacles like the
Diesel gate incident points to strong crisis management and enduring
consumer loyalty.
Another big participant, Audi, has been becoming better over time. Audi
started out in the middle of the pack but has now moved up, taking second
place in 2021. This improvement may be attributable to well-executed
product launches, excellent marketing plans, and a focus on innovation and
technical developments. Audi is becoming more and more competitive in the
luxury car market, as seen by its increasing trend.
BMW, on the other hand, shows a steady pattern, always placing itself in the
mid-to-high range with little variation. This consistency points to a constant
consumer demand and a dependable brand presence. BMW's steady
performance points to a devoted clientele and a solid market position in the
premium car industry.
Ford's results show a downward trend. The corporation has seen a severe fall
in recent years, but it held the top spot numerous times in the early 2010s.
There could be many reasons for this loss, such as heightened rivalry, a
STUDENT ) 18
There has been a noticeable drop in the market presence of brands like
Nissan, Peugeot, and Vauxhall, as they have completely disappeared from
the top rankings. Vauxhall was last seen in the rankings in 2013, whereas
Nissan and Peugeot were present until the middle of the decade. Their fall
from the ranks may have been caused by many things, including heightened
competition, shifting consumer preferences, and perhaps a failure to keep up
with industry developments like the move towards hybrid and electric cars.
STUDENT ) 19
The total number of new car registrations in the UK market by make and
year is displayed in the table above. Manufacturers with relatively low car
sales (fewer than 100 registrations annually) have been eliminated from the
data through filtering.
It is evident that:
Over the years, new registrations for BMW and Mercedes have increased
steadily, with BMW surpassing Mercedes in 2019.
A decline in revenue is evident between 2020 and 2021 for several reasons.
A decline in 2020 can be linked to the previously mentioned issues. But in
2021, Ford's sales continued to fall as preceding graphs had indicated, but
Volkswagen's sales deviated from the pattern. This might be explained by
Volkswagen's 2021 model release, which increased sales across the board.
Nevertheless, because of the ongoing epidemic and other financial issues
STUDENT ) 20
hurting the world economy, there were still widespread decreases in 2021.
The graphs might not always be true because there could be other factors
influencing these figures.
Based on the data on new car registrations, Ford appears to be the most
popular car manufacturer in the UK market, with VW and Vauxhall following
closely behind. While Audi is exhibiting erratic patterns, Mercedes and BMW
are expanding steadily.
P6
Recommendations/considerations for the analysis
Considerations
A dealership's investment decision about a car manufacturer may be
influenced by several variables related to auto sales. The market and target
customer base of a dealership will determine which automaker to invest in.
Finding the manufacturer that will work best for your dealership requires
investigation and analysis.
STUDENT ) 21
Recommendations
Ford should continue to leverage its strong brand presence and market
penetration, analysing successful strategies from peak years like 2015 to
improve upon them. Volkswagen should maintain stability by focusing on
quality and reliability to maintain registration numbers. Vauxhall should
analyse peak performance years like 2016 to identify key factors
contributing to high registrations and replicate successful strategies. Audi
should capitalize on its steady growth by expanding its product line and
innovation efforts. BMW should optimize its product offerings and marketing
strategies based on successful years like 2016, aiming for consistent growth
and market share expansion.
STUDENT ) 22
M4/M5
STUDENT ) 23
M6/D3
Conclusion
Based on the analysis of new car registrations by make and year, it evidently
shows that the directors need to consider their dealership options carefully.
Ford remains the most popular car manufacturer, but the downward trends
for Volkswagen and Vauxhall suggest these brands may not offer the best
growth potential. On the other hand, the steady growth of BMW and
Mercedes makes them appealing candidates for expanding dealership
networks. However, Audi's variable performance requires further evaluation
before making any commitments.
The overall number of new car registrations has been declining from 2016 to
2019, with a slight increase in 2020. Despite these changes, the distribution
of new registrations among the top manufacturers has stayed relatively
stable, with only minor shifts in their rankings.
This report has provided valuable insights into the new car registration data
for the top six car manufacturers in the UK market, helping the directors
make informed decisions about the future direction of their business and
which brands to prioritize for dealership expansions.
1. Firstly, the state of the economy has a big impact. When the economy
is doing well, people feel confident and are more likely to buy new
cars. But during tough economic times, like a recession, people tend to
hold back on big purchases like cars. Similarly, consumer preferences
can change over time. For example, SUVs and crossovers have become
very popular in recent years, and there's also a growing interest in
electric and hybrid cars because of environmental concerns.
2. Fuel prices are another important factor. When gas prices are high,
people often look for cars that are more fuel-efficient or even consider
electric vehicles. On the other hand, when gas prices are low, bigger
STUDENT ) 24
7. Resale value is another consideration. Cars that hold their value well
are more attractive to buyers because they are a better long-term
STUDENT ) 25
STUDENT ) 26
Final Thought
Market and economic factors must be considered when analysing sales data,
rather than depending exclusively on numerical projections. As a result, I
recommend that the auto dealership speak with a qualified economist in
order to stay current on market developments and obtain insightful
knowledge that will enhance the precision of their data analysis. Data
cleansing is an important process that needs close attention to detail
because even little mistakes can have a big effect on the dealership. I
analysed the data using a variety of statistical, probability, and mathematical
techniques to get insightful conclusions. I organised and cleaned the data
before beginning the analysis to guarantee clarity and promote efficient
analysis.
STUDENT ) 27
Bibliography
Cody, I.D. Data Analytics: Practical Data Analysis and Statistical Guide
to Transform and Evolve Any Business Create Space Independent
Publishing Platform. 2016 978-1536875379
Factors affecting car sales – https://www.paautosales.com/14-factors-
that-determine-car-sales/
What can affect car sales? - Tech InShorts
STUDENT ) 28