University of Tunis Fall 2023

Tunis Business School

Tutorial 4 solutions

Question 1

Question 2

1.

2.
Task Earliest start Latest start Total margin Free margin
A 0 11 11 0
B 0 3 3 2
C 4 15 11 11
D 0 0 0 0
E 12 14 2 1
F 8 8 0 0
G 15 16 1 1
H 12 12 0 0
I 8 9 1 0
3. The critical path is D-F-H
Project duration = 20 days
4. Tasks G and I are in series. A total margin of 1 day for each activity means that there is a one-day float
(a margin) in scheduling the two tasks without affecting the overall project duration. In simpler terms,
you have a one-day flexibility in planning these tasks without extending the total project timeline. This
means that if the start of each of the two activities were delayed by 1 day, or if their durations were
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increased by 1 day each, the overall project duration would extend by 1 day, and the critical path would
shift to D-I-G.

Question 3

1.

Task Duration Earliest Latest Total

Start Finish Start Finish margin
1 4 0 4 0 4 0
2 2 0 2 7 9 7
3 1 4 5 7 8 3
4 1 4 5 9 10 5
5 2 4 6 4 6 0
6 2 5 7 8 10 3
7 2 7 9 10 12 3
8 10 6 16 6 16 0
9 4 9 13 12 16 3
10 1 16 17 16 17 0
2. Minimum duration of the project = 17 jours
3. The critical path is : T1-T5-T8-T10
4. The delivery of doors and windows corresponds to task (8). Task (8) is critical with a total float of 0.
Therefore, a delay of 2 days in delivery will postpone the project's completion to day 19. A 2-day delay
in material delivery, task (6), a non-critical task with a total float of 3 days (>2), has no impact on the
project's end date (17 days).
5. To represent the requirement that foundation excavation should not start until 5 days later on the graph,
one could introduce a new task with a duration of 5 days, labeled as A, as an immediate predecessor
to task 4. The PERT diagram would then appear as follows:
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Task Duration Start

Earliest Latest
1 4 0 0
2 2 0 7
3 1 4 7
4 1 5 9
5 2 4 4
6 2 5 8
7 2 7 10
8 10 6 6
9 4 9 12
10 1 16 16

Only the earliest start dates of activity 4 will be affected, as shown in the table above.

Considering that material ordering (task 3), door and window ordering (task 5) are done with the same
supplier, they must be disjointed. Two solutions are possible: perform task 3 followed by task 5, or
perform task 5 followed by task 3.

First solution: Task 3 precedes task 5.

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2nd solution: Task 5 precedes task 3.

Therefore, to resolve this disjointedness without affecting the minimum project duration, schedule task
5 as the predecessor of task 3.
Question 4

Code ai mi bi Number of workers ti vi

A 2 3 4 2 3 0.11
B 4 5.5 10 4 6 1
C 6 7.5 12 3 8 1
D 11 15.5 17 4 15 1
E 3 4.5 9 5 5 1
F 3 3.5 7 4 4 0.44

The network PERT appears as follows:

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1. Earliest and latest start and finish of the tasks.

Tasks Earliest start Earliest finish Latest start Latest finish

A 0 3 0 3
B 0 6 5 11
C 3 11 3 11
D 3 18 5 20
E 11 16 11 16
F 16 20 16 20

2. Average duration : 20 jours Critical path : A-C-E-F

3. Probability that the project is completed in 18 days or less :
Critical path’s variance: 0.11+1+1+0.44=2.55
𝑥−20
Project duration 𝑥~𝑁(20; 2.55) Therefore 𝑍 = ~𝑁(0; 1)
√2.55

𝑥−20 18−20
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 18) = 𝑃 ( ≤ ) = 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ −1.25) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ 1.25)
√2.55 √2.55

= 1 − 0.8944 = 0.1056

The probability that the project is completed in 18 days or less is 10.56%

The probability that the project is completed in at least 22 days:

𝑥 − 20 22 − 20
𝑃(𝑥 > 22) = 𝑃 ( > ) = 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.25) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ 1.25) = 1 − 0.8944 = 0.1056
√2.55 √2.55
The probability that the project is completed in at least 22 days is 10.56%

Calculate the maximum duration of the project with a 95% probability.

𝑥 − 20 𝑋 − 20
𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 𝑋) = 𝑃 ( ≤
) = 0.95
√2.55 √2.55
𝑋 − 20
𝑍=
√2.55
𝑈𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛′ 𝑠 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑢 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 0.95 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑍 = 1.65
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𝑋 − 20
1.65 =
√2.55
𝑋 = 22.6 ≈ 23 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
With a probability of 95%, the project will be completed before 23 days.

4. With 9 workers, we proceed to the following earliest schedule.

We cannot perform an earliest start scheduling because it requires 11 workers, but we only have 9
workers available.

Question 5
1. The most commonly used statistical distribution law to estimate the expected duration of an activity in
a probabilistic project environment is the beta distribution.
2. Average duration of an activity= (a+4m+b)/6
with
a = estimation of the activity duration under the most favorable conditions.
b = estimation of the activity duration under the most unfavorable conditions.
m = estimation of the activity duration under normal conditions.
Variance = (b-a)2/36

3.
2 4
B(5)
C(7) F(17)
E(9)
1
A(8) 3 5
D(6)
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Task Earliest start Latest start Total margin

A 0 4 4
B 0 0 0
C 5 5 0
D 12 32 20
E 12 12 0
F 21 21 0
Critical path BCEF expected duration = 38

4. If simultaneously the expected duration of task A increases by 5 weeks and that of D by 2 weeks, then
activity A will become critical instead of B and C (A will have a duration of 13 weeks, exceeding the
12 weeks total duration of B and C), while D will remain non-critical (D will have a duration of 8
weeks, below the 26 weeks total duration of E and F). Thus, the critical path becomes AEF with a
length of 39 weeks. In other words, the project execution will require one additional week.

5. Let x be the estimated duration of the project with a probability of 90%

Var(CC)=1,8+0,1+1+2,8=5,7

σ(CC)= 2,387

P (Z ≤ z) = 0,9

According to the normal distribution table, we have z = 1,28

(x- 38)/2,387 = 1,28

x = 41,055 weeks

Therefore, there is a 90% chance that the estimated duration of the project is 41.055 weeks.

Question 6

Critical path : A-B

Project duration under normal conditions = 24 weeks
Total indirect cost = 12000*24 = 288000 dinars

Crashing alternatives Reduction cost per week (Dinars)

A 11000
B 3000 for the first week and 4000 for the subsequent weeks
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Reducing B by one week. Project duration: 23 weeks.

Total cost = (12000*23) + 3000 = 279000
Two critical paths: A-B and E-F

Crashing alternatives Reduction cost per week (Dinars)

A and E 11000+6000=17000
A and F 11000+2000=13000
B and E 4000+6000=10000
B and F 4000+2000=6000

Reducing B by one week and F by one week. Project duration: 22 weeks.

Total cost = (12000*22)+3000+4000+2000 = 273000
Two critical paths : A-B and E-F
F cannot be crashed further

Crashing alternatives Reduction cost per week (Dinars)

A and E 11000+6000=17000
B and E 4000+6000=10000

Reducing B by one week and E by one week. Project duration: 21 weeks

Total cost = (12000*21)+9000+4000+6000=271000
Two critical paths: A-B and E-F
B cannot be crashed further
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Crashing alternatives Reduction cost per week (Dinars)

A and E 11000+6000=17000

Reducing A by 2 weeks and E by 2 weeks. Project duration: 19 weeks

Total cost = (12000*19)+19000+2*(11000+6000) = 281000
Three critical paths: A-B, C-D, and E-F
E cannot be crashed further

Given that only the durations of activities A, C, and D can still be reduced, no alternative reduction in these
tasks can affect the project duration. Therefore, the project duration cannot be accelerated further.
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coût
290000

285000

280000

275000
coût
270000

265000

260000
19 20 21 22 23 24

The optimal cost reduction corresponds to 21 weeks. Below 21 weeks, costs start to increase again.