J.K.

SHAH CLASSES Theory of Chance (Probability)

7. Theory of Chance
PROBABILITY THEORY
Probability

Subjective Objective

It is influenced by personal belief, bias, attitude, etc and this is used in decision making management.
Definitions
a) Experiment or Random Experiment When an operation or series of operations are conducted under
identical conditions it is called as experiment.

b) Event: The outcome of an experiment is called an event.

c) Elementary and Compound or Composite Events: An event is said to be elementary, if it cannot be

decomposed into simpler events. A composite event is an aggregate of several elementary events.

d) Mutually Exclusive Events: Events are said to be mutually exclusive when the occurrence of any one
event excludes the occurrence of other or otherwise e.g. if a coin is tossed occurrence of head and tail
are mutually exclusive events because of head will automatically exclude the occurrence of tail or vice
versa.

e) Equally likely events: Events are said to be equality likely when they are equi-probable i.e. the event
should occur with same chance of occurrence (None can be preferred over the other).

f) Exhaustive events: The events are said to be exhaustive when they include all possible outcomes.
Events will necessarily occur.

g) Independent Events: Events are said to be independent of each other if happening of any one of them is
not affected by and does not affect the happening of any one of others.

APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY
Classical or Mathematical or Empirical or Posteriori or
Axiomatic
a Priori Statistical

1. Classical Definition of Probability

If a random experiment has “n” possible outcomes, which are mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally
likely and “m” of these are favourable to any event A, then the probability of the event A is defined as the
ratio m/n, i.e.,
m Favourable Outcomes
P(A) = =
n Total Outcomes

Note1:
a) Probability as defined above will always lie between 0 and 1, i.e., 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 and P(A) ≥ 0.
b) If P(A) = 0, it means that event is impossible.
c) P(A) = 1 signifies that event is certain or sure event.

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Note2:
Complementary Probability
Let P(A) be the Probability of occurrence of event A.
( ) ( ) ( )
Then P A / P A C / P A ' = 1 − P ( A ) = Probability of non-occurrence of event A.

Note3:
a) P(A) + P ( A C ) = 1 , which implies that A and Ac are collectively exhaustive.

b) P(A) = 1 − P ( A C )

c) P ( A ∩ A C ) = 0 , which implies that A and Ac are mutually exclusive.

Limitations Of Classical Probability

a. It fails if the no. of outcomes of an experiment. is very large infinite (∞).
b. It fails if the outcomes are not equally likely.
c. The definition holds if the possible events are known well in advance.

2. Empirical or posteriori or Statistical definition

If a random exp. is repeated large no. of times say n under identical conditions & let event A occurs .m.
times then

P(A) = m
lt
n→∞ n

3. Axiomatic definition
It is totally dependent on set theory (for all)
(i) P(A) ≥ 0 A⊆S
(ii) P(S) = 1
(iii) If A & B are mutually exclusive events P(A ∩ B) = 0
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).

Total Number of Outcomes

To find the total number of outcomes, when an experiment is conducted “n” times in succession or with “n”
objects only once.
n
Total outcomes = [No of outcomes in one experiment]
Where “n” = either number of objects or number of times the experiment gets repeated.

Examples:
2
a) 2 coins are tossed. Total outcomes = 2 = 4
5
b) A coin is tossed five times. Total outcomes = 2 = 32
2
c) 2 dice are rolled together. Total outcomes = 6 = 36

Concepts of ‘At least’, ‘At most’ and ‘At least one’

• At least
Let x = 0, 1, 2, 3, …., n
Then, x is at least k, implies x ≥ k, which implies that x = k, (k+1), (k+2), …. n

• At most
x is at most k implies x ≤ k, which means x = 0, 1, 2, ….., k

• At least One
x is at least one implies that x ≥ 1, i.e., x = 1, 2, 3, …., n
Hence, P(at least 1) = 1 – P(none) = 1 – P(0)

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Facts about Card

• A well shuffled deck of 52 cards are bi-colored -26 red and 26 black
• There are 4 suits or categories
Clubs -13 Spades -13
Hearts -13 Diamonds-13

• In each category , there is 1 king , 1 Queen

1Jack or knave and 1 Ace( Ace implies 1)
Therefore,
King =4 King, Queen and Jack together are called Face cards.
Queen =4 King Queen Jack and Ace are together called Honour cards.
Jack =4 Total face Cards=4+4+4=12
Ace =4 Honour Cards =4+4+4+4(K,Q,J,A)

Rolling of Dice

If a die is rolled outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
2

It two unbiased dice are rolled, outcomes = 6 = 36.
Sample Space
1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1

1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2

1,3 2,3 3,3, 4,3 5,3 6,3

1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4

1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5

1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6

Observations:
A. Sum of faces on two Dice and the no. of ways of getting sum
Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
No. of ways 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1

B. Distribution of sample space

Face F=S F>S F<S F ⇒ Face on the First die

Cases 6 15 15 S ⇒ Face on the Second die

No. of Children in a family

It treated same as in case of tossing of a coin.
3
For instance, if there are 3 children in a family, then outcomes = 2 = 8
(BBB) (BBG) (BGB) (BGG) (GBB) (GBG) (GGB) (GGG)

• Leap Year
A leap year contains 52 weeks and 2 extra days. These two extra days can be either of the following
outcomes:
(M, T) (T, W) (W, Th) (Th, F) (F, Sat) (Sat, Sun) (Sun, M)

• Simple drawing of Balls from Bag – Using Combination Techniques

A Bag contains m Red Balls and n Black Balls. Then if r balls are drawn, then it can be done in
m+n
Cr ways.

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Similarly use combination techniques to choose the required number of objects from the total objects given.

THEORM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY (Rule of Addition)

Statement: if A and B are two events, not mutually exclusive, then the probability of occurrence of at
least any of the two events, A and B will be given by;
P (A ∪ B) or P (A+B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B) or P (AB)

Note 1: Union ( ∪ ) implies “OR” ⇒ Addition (+)

Note 2: Intersection ( ∩ ) implies “AND” ⇒ Multiplication (×)

Partitioning of events

A B
1 2 3

1
4

1. A and not B ⇒ A but not B ⇒ A ∩ BC ⇒ A (A ∩ B)

2. A and B ⇒ (A ∩ B) or AB
3. B but not A ⇒ B and not A ⇒ B ∩ A C ⇒ B - (A ∩ B)
4. Neither A nor B ⇒ A “not” and B “not” ⇒ A C ∩ BC
5. A C = (3) + (4)
6. BC = (1) + (4)
A C ∪ BC = (1) + (3)+ (4) = [ 2] = (A ∪ B) C
C
7.

8. A C ∩ BC = [4] =[1 + 2+ 3] C = (A ∪ B) C

Proof of P(A ∪ B):

P(A ∪ B) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3)
= P(A ∩ BC ) + P(A ∩ B)+P(AC ∩ B)
= P(A) - P(A ∩ B)+P(A ∩ B)+P(B)-P(A ∩ B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
Hence proved

Note 1:
For 3 events, A, B and C, not mutually exclusive,
P(A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B) - P(B ∩ C) - P(A ∩ C ) + P( A ∩ B ∩ C )

Note 2:
When A and B are mutually exclusive, the two sets are disjoint and accordingly P(A ∩ B) = 0 and
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
A B

(A ∩ B) = ∅
P(A ∩ B) = 0

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Note 3:
When 3 events A, B and C are mutually exclusive then
P(A ∩ B)= P(B ∩ C) =P(A ∩ C ) = P(A ∩ B ∩ C ) =0 and accordingly

P(A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B) - P(B ∩ C) - P(A ∩ C ) + P( A ∩ B ∩ C ) =0

A B

Note 4:
When 3 events A, B and C are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive then,

P(A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1

Note 5:
Working Rules:
C
i. P(A ∩ B ) = P(A) – P(A ∩ B)
C
ii. P(A ∩ B) = P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
C C C
iii. P(A U B ) = P(A ∩ B) = 1 – P(A ∩ B)
C C C
iv. P(A ∩ B ) = P(A U B) = 1 – P (A U B)
C C C
v. P(A U B) = P(A ) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
C C C
vi. P(A U B ) = P(A) + P(B ) – P (A ∩ B )

CONCEPT OF ‘ODDS IN FAVOR’ AND ‘ODDS AGAINST’

• Odds in favor of an event is defined as ‘the ratio of the favorable to the unfavorable cases and is denoted
by u : v
Where,
U = favorable cases and
V = unfavorable cases
u v
∴ P(A) = and P(A ) =
C

u+v u+v

• Odds against an event A is defined as ‘the ratio of the unfavorable to the favorable cases and is given by
v:u

Where,
U = favorable cases
V = Unfavorable cases

u v
∴ P(A) = : P(A C ) =
u+v u+v

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THEOREM OF COMPOUND PROBABILITY (RULE OF MULTIPLICATION)

Statement:
If A and B are two events, not mutually independent, then the probability of joint or simultaneous oc-
currence of the two events A and B would be given by the product of the probability of event A and
the conditional probability of event B assuming that, A has already occurred,

Symbolically, the fact is expressed as,

B
P(A ∩ B)=P(A) × P   OR
 A
 A
P(A ∩ B)=P(B) × P  
B

Note 1:
B
• P(A ∩ B)=P(A) × P  
 A
 B  P( A ∩ B )
∴P =
 A P( A)
Where, P(A) ≠ 0 i.e, P(A) should not be an impossible event

 A
• P(A ∩ B)=P(B) × P  
B
 A  P( A ∩ B )
∴P =
B P( B )
Where, P(B) ≠ 0 i.e, P(B) should not be an impossible event

 A  P(A ∩ B )
C
• P C  =
B  P( BC )
 A  P(A)-P(A ∩ B)
P C =
B  1 − P( B)
Where,
P(B) ≠ 1 i.e, P(B) is not a sure event

 AC  P(A C ∩ BC ) P ( A ∪ B )C 1 − P ( A ∪ B )
• P C  = = =
B  P( BC ) 1 − P( B) 1 − P( B )
 AC  P(A C ∩ B) P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )
• P = =
 B  P( B) P( B)

 B C  P(BC ∩ A C ) P ( A ∪ B )C 1 − P( A ∪ B )
• P C  = = =
A 
C
P( A ) 1 − P ( A) 1 − P ( A)

Note 2:
When the events A and B are independent, in such a case P( A ∩ B) = P( A) × P( B)
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Note 3:

a. When the events A and B are independent, then,

B
P   = P ( B)
 A
Pr oof :
B
P   = P( B )
 A
 A∩ B 
⇒ P  = P( B )
 P( A) 
⇒ P( A ∩ B) = P( A) × P( B)
Hence, proved

b. When the events A and B are independent, then,

 A
P   = P ( A)
B
Proof:
 A
P   = P( A)
B

P( A ∩ B)
⇒ = P ( A)
P( B)
⇒ P( A ∩ B) = P( A) × P( B)

Hence, proved

Note 4:
For three events, A, B and C which are not independent,
B  C 
P( A ∩ B ∩ C ) = P( A) × P   × P  
 A  A∩ B

Note 5:
When 3 events, A and B and C are independent,
P( A ∩ B ∩ C ) = P( A) × P( B) × P(C )

Note 6:
Two events A and B are,

i. Mutually exclusive, if P( A ∩ B) = 0
ii. Independent, if P( A ∩ B) = P( A) × P( B )
iii. Equally likely, if P ( A) = P ( B)
iv. Exhaustive, if P ( A ∪ B) = 1
v. Mutually exclusive and exhaustive e, if P( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P( B ) = 1

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Note 7:
Two events with non-zero probability cannot be simultaneously mutually exclusive and independent.

Note 8:
If two events A and B are independent, then
i. A
C
and B
C
are independent ⇒ P( AC ∩ B C ) = P( AC ) × P ( BC )

ii. A and B
C
are independent ⇒ P( A ∩ B C ) = P( A) × P( BC )

iii. A
C
and B are independent ⇒ P( AC ∩ B) = P( AC ) × P( B)

Note 9:
If A1 , A2 , A3 .......... An are n events, then the number of conditions to be satisfied for proving their mu-
tual independence are 2r − (n + 1)

Tossing of Coins

Two coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting:

1. All heads.
a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

2. All tails.
a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

3. No heads.
a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

4. No tails.
a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these
5. At least one head.
a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

6. At least one tail.

a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these
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7. All not heads.

a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

8. Almost one head.

a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

9. Heads will come in first row.

a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

10. Heads and tails will occur alternately.

a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these

Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting:

11. All heads.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

12. All tails.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

13. No Head.
a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

14. No tail.
a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

15. At least one head.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8
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16. At least one tail.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

17. All not heads.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

18. At least two heads.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

19. At most two tails.

a) 1/8
b) 6/8
c) 7/8
d) 4/8

20. At most one head.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

21. Two or more tails.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

22. More than two tails.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

23. Less than one head.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

24. Heads and tails will occur alternately.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

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25. Heads are the two extremes.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

26. Heads will come in the 1st row.

a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8
27. Heads will exceed the number of tails in a particular throw.
a) 4/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) None

Pack of Cards – Withdrawn of a card

A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that:-
28. It is red.
a) ¼
b) ½
c) 1/5
d) 33/56
29. It is an Ace.
a) 2/13
b) 3/13
c) 1/13
d) 4/13
30. It is a spade.
a) 2/8
b) 6/8
c) 1/8
d) 4/8

31. It is either a King or an Ace.

a) 2/13
b) 3/13
c) 1/13
d) 4/13

32. It is either a King or a Knave.

a) 2/13
b) 11/13
c) 10/13
d) 4/13

33. It is neither a King nor a Knave.

a) 2/13
b) 11/13
c) 10/13
d) 4/13
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34. It is neither a heart nor a diamond.

a) 0.45
b) 0.50
c) 0.75
d) 0.80

35. It is neither an Ace, nor a King, nor a Queen, nor a Knave.

a) 12/13
b) 11/13
c) 10/13
d) 9/13

36. A spade or an Ace not of spade.

a) 2/13
b) 4/13
c) 1/13
d) 7/13

Two cards are drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that;

37. Both are spades.

a) 87/1326
b) 77/1236
c) 78/1326
d) None of these

38. Both are King.

a) 1/221
b) 4/1326
c) 2/1326
d) None of these

39. One spade and other is heart.

a) 187/1326
b) 177/1326
c) 169/1326
d) 179/1326

Rolling of Dice

Two dices are rolled. Find the probability that,

40. Sum of the faces is 7.

a) ¼
b) 1/8
c) 1/6
d) None of these

41. Sum is 11.

a) 1/14
b) 5/36
c) 1/18
d) None of these

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42. It is either 7 or 11.

a) 3/9
b) 5/9
c) 2/9
d) None of these

43. It is neither 7 nor 11.

a) 5/9
b) 3/9
c) 7/9
d) None of these

44. Sum is an odd number more than 3.

a) 2/9
b) 4/9
c) 6/9
d) None of these

45. Sum is a multiple of 3.

a) 1/9
b) 2/9
c) 3/9
d) None of these

46. Sum is a multiple of 4.

a) 1/6
b) 1/3
c) ¼
d) 1/36

47. Sum is a multiple of 3 and 4.

a) 2/36
b) 3/36
c) 4/36
d) 1/36

48. Sum is a multiple of 3 or 4.

a) 5/19
b) 3/9
c) 7/9
d) None of these

49. Sum is at least 8.

a) 4/12
b) 5/12
c) 6/12
d) None of these

50. Sum is at most 7.

a) 4/12
b) 5/12
c) 7/12
d) None of these

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51. The product of the faces is 12.

a) 3/9
b) 2/9
c) 1/9
d) None of these

52. Sum of the faces is more than 12.

a) 4/12
b) 2/12
c) 1/12
d) None of these

Children in a Family

In a family of three children there is at least one girl. Find the probability that;
53. All are girls.
a) 1/8
b) 2/7
c) 2/8
d) 1/7

54. There are exactly 2 boys.

a) 1/8
b) 3/7
c) 2/8
d) 1/7

55. There are at least two girls.

a) 4/7
b) 2/7
c) 2/8
d) 1/7

56. There is at most 1 boy.

a) 1/8
b) 4/7
c) 2/8
d) 1/7

57. All are not girls.

a) 6/7
b) 3/7
c) 6/8
d) 1/7

Leap Year

Find the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain;
58. 53 Sundays.
a) 3/7
b) 1/7
c) 4/7
d) 2/7

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59. 53 Thursdays or 53 Fridays.

a) 1/7
b) 3/7
c) 2/7
d) 4/7

60. 53 Thursdays and 53 Fridays.

a) 1/7
b) 3/7
c) 2/7
d) 4/7
A bag contains 3 green and 8 white balls

If one ball is drawn, find the chance that;

61. It is green
a) 3/11
b) 1/8
c) 5/11
d) None

62. It is White
a) 8/11
b) 5/11
c) 2/11
d) None
If two balls are drawn, find the chance that;

63. Both are green

a) 5/55
b) 2/55
c) 3/55
d) 6/55

64. Both are white.

a) 25/55
b) 28/55
c) 23/55
d) 26/55
65. One green and one white.
a) 25/55
b) 42/55
c) 24/55
d) 6/55
A bag contains 3 green and 8 white balls.
If three balls are drawn, find the chance that;

66. All are green

a) 5/165
b) 1/165
c) 3/165
d) /165

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67. All are white.

a) 56/165
b) 61/165
c) 63/165
d) 66/165

68. Two green and one white.

a) 25/165
b) 21/165
c) 24/165
d) 26/165

69. One green and two white.

a) 85/165
b) 81/165
c) 83/165
d) 84/165

Miscellaneous Cases

Three dices are rolled. Find the probability that:

70. The faces will show three 5’s.

a) 2/216
b) 3/216
c) 1/216
d) None of these

71. The faces will show 2, 4 & 6.

a) 2/72
b) 1/33
c) 3/96
d) None of these

72. The faces will show 5, 6 & 6.

a) 2/72
b) 1/72
c) 3/72
d) None of these

73. Five number are selected at random from a set of first 50 natural numbers and are arranged in
the following order X1 < X2 < X3 < X4 < X5. Find the probability that X3 = 30.
29
C2 .1 C0 .20 C2
a) 50
C5
29
C2 .1 C1 .20 C2
b) 50
C5
29
C2 .20 C3
c) 50
C5
d) None of these

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74. In a family there are 4 children. Find the probability that all have different birthdays.
364 x 363 x 362
a)
( 365)
4

365 x 364 x 363

b)
( 365)
3

364 x 363 x 362

c)
( 365)
3

d) None of these

75. 10 persons amongst whom X and Y are included are standing in a line. Find the probability that
there are 3 persons between X and Y.
a) 1/15
b) 3/15
c) 2/15
d) 2/9

76. 12 persons amongst whom X and Y are included are seated at a round table. Find the probabil-
ity that there are 3 persons between X and Y.
a) 1/11
b) 3/11
c) 2/11
d) None of these

Addition Theorem
A number is selected at random from a set of first 120 natural numbers. What is the probability that
it is divisible by:

77. 10 or 13
a) 7/40
b) 13/40
c) 1/10
d) None of the above

78. 8 or 10
a) 1/5
b) 2/13
c) 3/120
d) None of the above
79. The probability that a Management Account’s job applicant has a post-graduate degree is 0.30,
that he has some work experience as a Chief Accountant is 0.70 and that he has both is 0.20.
Out of 400 applicants, what number would have either a post-graduate degree or some
professional work experience or both?
a) 230
b) 300
c) 350
d) 320
80. The probability that a student passes in statistics test is 2/3 and the probability that he passes
both statistics and mathematics test is 14/45. The probability that he passes at least one test is
4/5. What is the probability that he passes in Mathematics?
a) 2/9
b) 3/9
c) 4/9
d) 5/9
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81. A constructive company is bidding for two contracts, A and B. The probability that the company
will get contract A is 3/5, the probability that the company will get contract B is 1/3 and the prob-
ability that the company will get both the contracts is 1/8. What is the probability that the com-
pany will get at least one contact.
a) 79/120
b) 97/120
c) 89/120
d) None of these

82. The probability that the contractor will get one electric contract is 3/5, and the probability that the
company will not get a plumbing contract is 7/10. If the probability of getting at least one con-
tract is 4/7, what is the probability that he will get both the contracts.
a) 32/70
b) 65/70
c) 23/70
d) None of these

83. A class consists of 30 boys and 20 girls of which half the boys and half the girls have blue eyes.
Find the probability that the selected student is a boy or has blue eyes.
a) 0.75
b) 0.98
c) 0.56
d) 0.80

84. From a set of 18 balls marked 1, 2, 3, ………….., 17, 18, one ball is drawn at random. What is
the probability that its number is either a multiple of 3 or of 4?
a) 0.5
b) 0.67
c) 0.33
d) None of these

85. If the probability of a horse A winning a race is 1 / 6 and the probability of a horse B winning
the same race is 1 /4, what is the probability that one of the horse will win
a) 5 / 12
b) 7 / 12
c) 1 / 12
d) None

86. If the probability of a horse A winning a race is 1 / 6 and the probability of a horse B winning
the same race is 1/4, what is the probability that none of them will win
a) 5 / 12
b) 7 / 12
c) 1 / 12
d) None

If P(A) = 1/4 , P(B) = 2/5, P(A ∪ B) = 1/2 . Find:

87. P(A ∩ B)
a) 3/20
b) 1/10
c) ¼
d) ½

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88. P(A ∩ Bc)

a) 3/20
b) 1/10
c) ¼
d) ½
89. P( Ac ∩ B)
a) 3/20
b) 1/10
c) ¼
d) ½
90. P(Ac ∩ Bc)
a) 3/20
b) 1/10
c) ¼
d) ½

91. P(Ac ∪ Bc)

a. 17/20
b. 7/20
c. 13/20
d. None

92. P(Ac ∪ B)
a) 9/10
b) 7/10
c) 3/10
d) None of the above

93. P(A ∪ Bc)

a) 2/5
b) 3/5
c) 1/5
d) None of the above

Multiplication Theorem and Applications

If P(A) = 1/4 , P(B) = 2/5, P(A ∪ B) = 1/2 . Find:

94. P(A/B)
a) 2/8
b) 5/8
c) 3/8
d) None of the above
95. P(B/A)
a) 2/5
b) 3/5
c) 1/5
d) None of the above
96. P(Ac/B)
a) 5/8
b) 8/5
c) 3/5
d) None of the above

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97. P(Bc/A)
a) 1/5
b) 2/5
c) 3/5
d) None of the above

98. P(B/Ac)
a) 2/3
b) 1/3
c) 1
d) None of the above

99. P(Ac/Bc)
a) 4/10
b) 5/10
c) 6/10
d) None of the above

100. P(Bc/Ac)
a) 1/3
b) 2/3
c) 4/5
d) None of the above

101. If P(A) = 2/3, P(B) = 3/4, P(A / B) = 2/3, then what is P(B / A)?
a) 1/3
b) 1/3
c) 3/4
d) None of the above

30% of the students failed in mathematics, 20% in Chemistry and 10% in both. Find the probability
that
102. He has failed either in Maths or in Chemistry.
a) 2/5
b) 3/5
c) 1/5
d) 1 / 10

103. He has failed neither in Maths nor in Chemistry.

a) 2 / 5
b) 3 / 5
c) 1 / 5
d) 1 / 10

104. He has failed in Maths but not in Chemistry.

a) 2 / 5
b) 3 / 5
c) 1 / 5
d) 1 / 10

105. He has failed in Maths known that he has failed in chemistry.

a) 2 / 5
b) 1 / 2
c) 1 / 5
d) 1 / 10
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106. He has failed in Chemistry known that he has not failed in Maths
a) 1 / 7
b) 3 / 4
c) 1 / 5
d) 1 / 10

107. He has not failed in Maths known that he has not failed in Chemistry.
a) 2 / 4
b) 3 / 4
c) 1 / 5
d)1 / 10
108. If P(A) = p, and P(B) = q, then:
a) P(A / B) ≤ p / q
b) P(A / B) < p / q
c) P(A / B) ≤ q / p
d) None of the above
Independent Events

A problem in Statistics is given to three students A, B and C whose respective chances of solving
are 1/3, 1/4, 1/5. Find the probability that:
109. It is solved by all of them.
a) 1/60
b) 2/5
c) 3/5
d) 13/30

110. It is solved by none of them.

a) 1/60
b) 2/5
c) 3/5
d) 13/30
111. It is solved.
a) 1/60
b) 2/5
c) 3/5
d) 13/30
112. It is solved by exactly 1 of them.
a) 1/60
b) 2/5
c) 3/5
d) 13/30
113. It is solved by exactly 2 of them.
a) 3/20
b) 2/5
c) 3/5
d) 13/30

114. It is solved by at least 2 of them.

a) 2/6
b) 1/6
c) 5/6
d) None of these
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115. It is solved by at most 2 of them

a. 57/60
b. 58/60
c. 59/60
d. None

116. It is solved by at most 1 of them.

a) 5/6
b) 5/7
c) 5/9
d) 5/11

117. For two independent events A and B, what is P(A + B), given P(A) = 3/5 and P(B) = 2/3?
a) 11/15
b) 13/15
c) 7/15
d) None of the above

118. If for two independent events A and B, P(A U B) = 2/3 and P(A) = 2/5, what is P(B)?
a) 4/15
b) 4/9
c) 5/9
d) 7/15

119. There are three men aged 60, 65 and 70 years. The probability to live 5 years more is 0.8 for a
60 year old, 0.6 for a 65 year old and 0.3 for a 70 year old person. Find the probability that at
least 2 of the 3 persons will remain alive 5 years hence.
a) 0.216
b) 0.500
c) 0.612
d) None of the above

120. A speaks truth in 60% and B in 75% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to
contradict each other in stating the same fact
a) 0.45
b) 0.54
c) 0.55
d) 0.65
121. A person is known to hit 4 out of 5 shots, whereas another person is known to hit 3 out of 4
shots. Find the probability of hitting a target if they both try.
a) 0.29
b) 0.92
c) 0.95
d) 0.98

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122. In supplies of 3 components viz. base, neck and switch for an electric lamp, the % of defective
on a day were 5, 20 and 10 respectively. An assembled lamp is considered defective if at least
1 of the three components is defective. If components are selected randomly, what is the prob-
ability that an assembled lamp would be defective?
a) 79 / 250
b) 97 / 250
c) 25 / 250
d) 129 / 250

Odds in Favour / Odds Against

123. If p : q are the odds in favour of an event, then the probability of that event is
a) p / q
p
b)
p+q
q
c)
p+q
d) None of these

124. The odds against a certain event are 5:2 and odds in favour of another event, independent of
the former, are 6:5. Find the chance that at least one of the events will happen.
a) 25/77
b) 35/77
c) 52/77
d) 65/87
125. The odds in favour of an event are 4:3. The odds against another independent event are 2:3.
What is the probability that at least one of the events will occur?
a) 35/36
b) 28/35
c) 29/36
d) 29/35

126. A, B, C and D are four mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. If the odds against the
events B, C, D are respectively 7 : 2, 7 : 5 and 13 : 5, find the odds in favour of the event A.
a) 2 : 11
b) 1 : 11
c) 2 : 12
d) 1 : 12
127. An investment consultant predicts that odds against the price of a certain stock will go up dur-
ing the next week are 2 : 1 and the odds in favour of the price remaining the same are 1 : 3.
What is the probability that the price of the stock will go down during the next week?
a) 2/12
b) 7/12
c) 3/12
d) 5/12

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Bags and Balls – Important Cases

Case: 1 – When their is one bag and successive drawings are made with or without replace-
ment

128. A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls. two successive draws of 3 balls are made without
replacement. Find the probability that the 1 st drawing will give 3 white and second drawing will
give 3 red balls.
a) 4 / 294
b) 7 / 597
c) 7 / 429
d) 159 / 429
129. With respect to the above question; however, if 3 balls are replaced before the 2nd draw, find
the probability that the 1st drawing will give 3 white and the 2nd will give 3 red.
a) 140 / 20449
b) 1598 / 20449
c) 140 / 20944
d) None of the above
130. A bag contains 10 red and 6 green balls. Two successive drawings of three balls are made
without replacement. Find the probability that the first drawing will give 3 red balls and second
will give three greens balls.
a) 51/1001
b) 25/1001
c) 51/1000
d) 15/1001

Two consecutive drawing of a digit are made at random from the numbers 1, 2, 3,………, 21. Find the
probability that the first drawn number is even and the second is an odd number. When the first
drawn number is
131. Replaced
a) 110 / 440
b) 110 / 441
c) 110 / 442
d) None of the above
132. Not replaced before the second drawing.
a) 11 / 24
b) 11 / 35
c) 11 / 42
d) 11 / 58
Case: 2 – Two bags are given, a ball is drawn from each bag

One bag contains 4 red and 2 black balls, another bag contains 3 red and 5 black balls. If one is
drawn from each bag, determine the probability that;
133. Both are red
a) ¼
b) ½
c) ¾
d) None of these
134. Both are black.
a) 5/24
b) 7/24
c) 9/24
d) None of these
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135. One is red and one is black.

a) 11/24
b) 13/24
c) 29/48
d) 92/192
st
There two bags. The 1 bag contains 4 white , 3 red and 3 blue balls while the second bag contains 5
white, 4 red and 3 blue balls. if one ball is drawn at a time what is the probability that;
136. They are of same colour.
a) 31 / 120
b) 51 / 129
c) 61 / 519
d) 41 / 120

137. They are of different colours.

a) 79 / 120
b) 97 / 259
c) 89 / 981
d) None of the above

Case: 3 – Two bags are given, 1 ball is chosen from Bag 1 and transferred to Bag 2. Now a
ball is drawn from Bag 2

138. An urn contains 4 white and 5 black balls. A second urn contains 5 white and 4 black balls. One
ball is transferred from the 1st urn to the 2nd urn. What is the probability that it is white?
a) 49/90
b) 59/90
c) 69/90
d) None of these

139. A bag contains 5 white and 4 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag and put into
another bag, which contains 3 white and 7 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the 2nd
bag. What is the probability that it is white?
a) 23/99
b) 43/99
c) 54/99
d) 32/99

Case: 4 – Two bags are given, a bag is chosen at random, then ball(s) is/are drawn

A bag contains 5 red and 3 black balls and another bag contains 4 red and 5 black balls. A bag is
selected at random and a ball is selected. Find the chance that:

140. It is red.
a) 77 / 177
b) 87 / 144
c) 97 / 854
d) 77 / 144

141. It is black.
a) 67 / 144
b) 77 / 144
c) 97 / 144
d) 87 / 145

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142. If 2 balls are drawn from the selected bag, find the chance that one red and one black is drawn.
a) 275 / 957
b) 597 / 5149
c) 275 / 504
d) None of the above

Miscellaneous Problems

143. There are four letters to be put into four addressed envelopes. If the letters are placed at ran-
dom into the envelopes, the probability that all the letters go into correct envelopes is:
a) 23 / 24
b) 9 / 24
c) 1 / 16
d) None of the above

144. The probability that a number selected from {1, 2, 3, 4, ……, 100} is a perfect cube is:
a) 1 / 25
b) 2 / 25
c) 3 / 25
d) None of the above

145. The letters of the word “SOCIETY” are arranged in a row. What is the chance that the word
formed begins with S and end in Y?
a) 5! / 7!
b) 2! / 7!
c) (5! + 2!) / 7!
d) None of the above

146. How many tosses of a coin are needed so that the probability of getting at least one head is
87.5%?
a) 2
b) 4
c) 3
d) 8
147. Four cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that they are from four
different suits?
a) 219/2082
b) 2197/20285
c) 2197/20825
d) 2179/20825
148. 40% of students in a class are girls. If 60% and 70% of the boys and the girls respectively of
the class pass a test. What is the probability that a student selected from this class will have
passed the test?
a) 16/25
b) 15/36
c) 61/85
d) 53/65
149. 5 Commerce and 4 science students are arranged at random in a row. Find the probability so
that the commerce and science students are placed alternately?
a) 1/126
b) 2/216
c) 5/216
d) 19/216

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150. The probability that a teacher will take a surprise test during any class meeting is 1/5. If a stu-
dent is absent on two days, what is the probability that he will miss at least 1 test?
a) 16 / 25
b) 1 / 25
c) 4 / 25
d) 9 / 25

151. A number is chosen at random from the first n natural numbers and suppose A and B denotes
the events the chosen number is divisible by 2 and 3 respectively. A and B are independent if n
=?
a) 96
b) 97
c) 99
d) 100

152. A six faced die is so biased that it is twice likely to show an even number as compared to an
odd number when thrown. It is thrown twice. Find the probability that the sum of the faces
thrown will be even.
a) 7 / 9
b) 5 / 9
c) 8 / 9
d) 9 / 9

153. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability that the sum is 10 or greater if a 5 appears on the
first dice.
a) 0.67
b) 0.99
c) 1.00
d) 0.33

154. A certain player is known to win with probability 0.3 if the track is fast and 0.4 if the track is
slow. For Monday, there is 0.7 probability of a fast track 0.3 of a slow track. What is the proba-
bility that player X will win on Monday?
a) 0.67
b) 0.99
c) 0.33
d) None of the above

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Multiple Choice Questions (THEORITICAL ASPECT)

Out of the four options as the answer to each of the following questions, choose the correct answer

Probability – introduction

155. A probability is
a) An event
b) A favourable event
c) A chance
d) An outcome of an experiment.

156. Initially, the probability was a branch of

a) Physics
b) Statistics
c) Mathematics
d) Economics

157. If P(A) = 1, then the event A is known as

a) symmetric event
b) dependent event
c) improbable event
d) sure event

158. If P(A) = 0, then the event A

a) will never happen
b) will always happen
c) may happen
d) may not happen

159. Two Broad Divisions of probability are

a) Subjective Probability and objective probability
b) Deductive probability and non-deductive probability
c) Statistical probability and Mathematical probability
d) None of these.

160. Subjective probability may be used in

a) Mathematics
b) Statistics
c) Management
d) Accountancy

161. An experiment is known to be random if the results of the experiment.

a) Cannot be predicted
b) Can be predicted
c) Can be split into further experiments
d) Can be selected at random

162. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive then
a) P(AB) = 0 and P(A) + P(B) = 1
b) P(AB) = 1 and P(A) + P(B) = 1
c) P(AB) = 1 and P(A) + P(B) = 0
d) P(AB) > 0 and P(A) + P(B) = 1
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163. All possible outcomes of a random experiment forms the

a) events
b) sample space
c) both
d) none

164. If one of outcomes cannot be expected to occur in preference to the other in an experiment the
events are
a) simple events
b) compound events
c) favourable events
d) equally likely events.

165. Probability of the sample space is

a) 0
b) ½
c) 1
d) none

166. Let a sample space be S = {X 1, X2 , X3} which of the following defines probability space on S?
a) P(X1) = ¼, P(X2) = 1/3, P(X3) = 1/3
b) P(X1) = 0 , P(X2) = 1/3, P(X3) = 2/3
c) P(X1) = 2/3, P(X2) = 1/3, P(X3) = 2/3
d) none

167. Let P be a probability function on S = {X 1, X2 , X3} if P(X1) = ¼, and P(X3) = 1/3, then P(X2) is
equal to
a) 5 /12
b) 7 / 12
c) 3 / 4
d) None

168. The complete group of all possible outcomes of a random experiment gives an ______ set of
events.
a) mutually exclusive
b) exhaustive
c) both
d) none

169. The complement of an event A is given by A’. Which of the following is true?
a) P (A) + P (A’) = 1.
b) P (A) + p (A’) = 0
c) P (A and A’) = 0
d) Both (a) and (c)

170. If one event is unaffected by the outcome of another event, the two events are said to be
a) Dependent
b) Independent
c) Mutually exclusive
d) All of the above

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171. Two events are mutually exclusive if

a) Their probabilities are less than 1
b) Their probabilities sum to 1
c) They cannot occur at the same time
d) They contain every possible outcome of an experiment

172. An event that can be split into further events is known as

a) Complex event
b) Mixed event
c) Simple event
d) Composite event

173. Which of the following pairs of events are mutually exclusive?

a) A : The student reads in a school
B : He studies Philosophy
b) A : Raju was born in India
B : He is fine Engineer
c) A : Ruma is 16 years old
B : She is a good singer
d) A : Peter is under 15 years of age
B : Peter is a voter of Kolkata.

174. If P(A) = P(B), then

a) A and B are the same events
b) A and B must be same events.
c) A and B may be different events
d) A and B are mutually exclusive events

175. If P(A ∩ B) = 0, then the two events A and B are

a) Mutually Exclusive
b) Exhaustive
c) Equally likely
d) Independent

176. If P(A) = P(B), then the two events A and B are

a) Independent
b) Dependent
c) Equally likely
d) Both (a) and (c)

177. In Venn diagram, if events A and B do not overlap on each other, then events A and B are
a) Mutually exclusive
b) Not mutually exclusive
c) Independent
d) Dependent

178. According to the statistical definitions of probability, the probability of an event A is the
a) Limiting value of the ratio of the no. of times the event A occurs to the number of times the
experiment is repeated.
b) The ratio of the frequency of the occurrences of A to the total frequency.
c) The ratio of the frequency of the occurrences of A to the non-occurrence of A
d) The ratio of the favourable elementary events to A to the total number of elementary events.
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Theorem of total probability (Addition Rule)

179. For any two events A and B, implies which of the following is true?
a) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
b) P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B).
c) P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B) - P(A) x P(B).
d) P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)..

180. Which of the following is true for mutually exclusive events?

a) P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
b) P(A and B and C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
c) P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P(CA)
d) P(A and B and C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P(CA)

181. If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive then the probability that neither A nor B occurs
is equal to
a) 1 – P(AB)
b) P(AB) – 1
c) 1 – [P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)]
d) P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) – 1

182. If P(A) = a, P(B) = b and P(A ∩ B) = c, then the expression of P(A’ ∩ B’) in terms of a, b and c
is
a) 1 – a – b – c
b) a + b – c
c) 1 + a – b – c
d) 1 – a – b + c

183. For three events, A, B and C the probability that only A occur is
a) P(A)
b) P (A ∪ B ∪ C)
c) P (A’ ∩ B ∩ C)
d) P (A ∩ B’ ∩ C’)

184. If A denotes that a student reads in a school and B denotes that he plays cricket, then,
a) P(A ∩ B) = 1
b) P(A ∪ B) = 1
c) P(A ∩ B) = 0
d) P(A) = P(B).

185. For any two events A and B,

a) P(A) + P(B) > P(A ∩ B)
b) P(A) + P(B) < P(A ∩ B)
c) P(A) + P(B) ≥ P(A ∩ B)
d) P(A) x P(B) ≤ P(A ∩ B)

186. For any two events A and B,

a) P(A – B) = P(A) – P(B)
b) P(A – B) = P(A) – P(A ∩ B)
c) P(A – B) = P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
d) P(B – A) = P(B) + P(A ∩ B)

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187. The Limitations of the classical definitions of probability

a) It is applicable when the total number of elementary events is finite.
b) It is applicable if the elementary events are equally likely.
c) It is applicable if the elementary events are mutually independent.
d) (a) and (b).

188. If P(A – B) = P(B – A), then the two events A and B satisfy the conditions
a) P(A) = P(B).
b) P(A) + P(B) = 1
c) P(A ∩ B) = 0
d) P(A ∪ B) = 1

189. Probability of occurrence of at least one of the events A and B is denoted by

a) P(AB)
b) P(A+B)
c) P(A/B)
d) None

190. Probability of occurrence of A as well as B is denoted by

a) P(AB)
b) P(A+B)
c) P(A/B)
d) None

191. If for two events A and B , P(A ∪ B) = 1, then A and B are

a) Mutually exclusive events
b) Equally likely events
c) Exhaustive events
d) Dependent events.

192. If an unbiased coin is tossed once, then the two events Head and Tail are
a) Mutually exclusive
b) Exhaustive
c) Equally likely
d) All these (a), (b), and (c).
193. A, B and C are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. Find P(B) if 1/8 P(C) = 1/2 P(A)
= P(B).
a) 1/11
b) 1
c) 2/11
d) None of these
194. Can the following represent a measure of probability? Given that A, B, C are three mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events;
P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.7 and P(C) = 0.1
a) Yes
b) No
c) Can’t Say
d) None of the above

195. P(A ∪ B) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6, P(C) = 0.2.

a) Yes
b) No
c) Neither a) nor b) above
d) Can’t Say
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THEOREM OF COMPOUND PROBABILITY

196. The Theorem of Compound Probability states that for any two events A and B.
a) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B/A)
b) P(A ∪ B) = P(A) x P(B/A)
c) P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)
d) P(A ∪ B) = P(B) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

197. P(B/A) defines the probability that event B occurs on the assumption that A has happened
a) Yes
b) No
c) Both
d) None

198. P(B / A) is defined only when

a) A is a sure event
b) B is a sure event
c) A is not an impossible event
d) B is an impossible event.

199. P(A / B) is defined only when

a) B is not a sure event
b) B is a sure event
c) B is an impossible event
d) B is not an impossible event

200. Which of the following is not correct?

a) P(A/B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
b) P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B/A)
c) P(A and B) = P(B/A) . P(A)
d) P(B or A) = P(B) . P(A/B)

201. If events A and B are independent, the probability of occurrence of A as well as B is given by
a) P(AB) = P(A/B)
b) P(AB) = P(A)P(B)
c) P(AB) = P(A)P(B)
d) None

202. For the condition P(AB) = P(A)P(B) two events A and B are said to be
a) dependent
b) Independent
c) equally like
d) None
203. The conditional probability of an event B on the assumption that another event A has actually
occurred is given by
a) P(B / A) = P(AB) / P(A)
b) P(A / B) = P(AB) / P(B)
c) P(B / A) = P(AB)
d) P(A / B) = P(AB) / P(A)P(B)

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204. If for two events A and B, P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) x P(B), then the two events A and B are
a) Independent
b) Dependent
c) Not equally likely
c) Not exhaustive
205. If two events A and B are independent, then
a) A and the complement of B are independent.
b) B and the complement of A are independent
c) Complements of A and B are independent.
d) All of these (a), (b) and (c).
206. If two events A and B are independent, then
a) They can be mutually exclusive
b) They cannot be mutually exclusive.
c) They cannot be exhaustive
d) Both (b) and (c)
207. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
a) They are always independent
b) They may be independent.
c) They cannot be independent
d) They cannot be equally likely.

208. If P(Ã ∪ B) = 5 /6, P (A) = 1/2 and P(B) = 2/3, what is P (A ∪ B)?
a) 1/3
b) 5 /6
c) 2 /3
d) 4 / 9

209. A league match in football ends in WIN, LOSS or DRAW. Being a supporter of a club, find the
probability that exactly 18 correct results can be predicted if 22 matches are played in all.
20
C18 .24
a)
223
22
C18 .24
b)
223
20
C18 .24
c)
322
22
C18 .24
d)
322
210. The number of conditions to be satisfied by three events A, B and C for independence is
a) 2
b) 3
c) 4
d) any number

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THEORY ANSWERS:

147 c 162 b 177 c 192 d

148 c 163 c 178 b 193 d
149 d 164 d 179 d 194 c
150 a 165 d 180 a 195 b
151 a 166 c 181 b 196 a
152 c 167 a 182 a 197 b
153 a 168 c 183 c 198 d
154 a 169 a 184 d 199 b
155 b 170 a 185 b 200 c
156 d 171 d 186 a 201 b
157 c 172 a 187 a 202 d
158 b 173 c 188 b 203 c
159 a 174 d 189 a
160 b 175 d 190 a
161 d 176 c 191 c

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