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PC.4 Notes

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15

PC.4 Notes: Independent Events; Conditional Probability

Independent Events

Events A and B are independent events if the probability of Event B occurring is the same
whether or not Event A occurs.

The probability of both A and B occur is: P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B).

P(A and B and C) = P(A) ∙ P(B) ∙P(C)

1. The picture shows a U.S. roulette wheel that has 38


numbered slots (1 through 36, 0, and 00). Of the 38
compartments, 18 are black, 18 are red, and 2 are green. A
play has the dealer spin the wheel and a small ball in opposite
directions. As the ball slows to a stop, it can land with equal
probability on any one of the 38 numbered slots. Find the
probability of red occurring on two consecutive plays.

2. Find the probability of a family having nine girls in a row.

3. You draw one card from a 52-card deck. Then the card is replaced in the deck, the deck is
shuffled, and you draw again. Find the probability of drawing

a. a picture card the first time and a heart the second time.

b. a king each time

c. a red card each time


16
Dependent Events

If Events A and B are dependent (not independent), then P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B|A)

4. Good news: You won a free trip to Madrid and can take two people with you, all expenses
paid. Bad news: Ten of your cousins have appeared out of nowhere and are begging you to
take them. You write each cousin’s name on a card, place the cards in a hat, and select one
name. Then you select a second name without replacing the first card. If three of your ten
cousins speak Spanish, find the probability of selecting two Spanish-speaking cousins.

5. Three people are randomly selected, one person at a time, from five freshmen, two sophomores,
and four juniors. Find the probability that the first two people selected are freshmen and the
third is a junior.

6. You are dealt one card from a 52-card deck. The card is not replaced, and then you draw again.
Find the probability of drawing

a. a jack and then a six

b. a diamond and then another diamond


17
Conditional Probability

The probability that event B occurs, given that event A has happened, is represented as
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
P(B|A). This is read as “the probability of B given A” 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)

7. You are dealt a heart card from a standard 52-card deck. Without replacing the first card, you
are dealt a second card. Determine the probability that the second card is a red card.

8. You are dealt a heart from a standard 52-card deck. Without replacing the first card, you are
dealt a second card. Determine the probability that the second card is a heart.

9. A letter is randomly selected from the letters of the English alphabet. Find the probability of
selecting a vowel, given that the outcome is a letter that precedes h.

10. There are four types of candy bars. Using the Venn Diagram, answer the following questions:
a. P(Milk Chocolate | Nuts)
Milk Nuts

3 7 2
b. P(Nuts | Milk Chocolate)

White Chocolate 2
11. When women turn 40, their gynecologists typically remind them that it is time to undergo
mammography screening for breast cancer. The data in the table are based on 100,000 U.S.
women, ages 40 to 50, who participated in mammography screening.

Mammography Screening on 1000,000 U.S. Women, Ages 40 to 50


Breast Cancer No Breast Cancer Total
Positive Mammogram 720 6944 7664
Negative Mammogram 80 92,256 92,336
Total 800 99,200 100,000

Assuming that these numbers are representative of all U.S. women ages 40 to 50, find the
probability that a woman in this age range

a. has a positive mammogram, given that she does not have breast cancer.

b. does not have breast cancer, given that she has a positive mammogram.

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