Genetics and Probability

Background information:
 Probability is the mathematical chance that an event will occur. It can be
expressed as a fraction or as a percentage.
 To express probability as a fraction, the numerator is the number of times the
option you are interested in could occur. The denominator is the total number
of options available.
 To express probability as a percentage, divide the numerator by the
denominator, and multiply the answer by 100.
 Offspring are equally likely to inherit either allele from their parents. It does not
matter what the previous offspring inherited.
 To calculate the probability that an offspring will have a particular genotype,
multiply the probability of receiving one allele from mom with the probability of
receiving one from dad. For example, for two heterozygous parents, the
probability of an offspring having the genotype RR is
1 1 1
chance of getting R allele from mom× chance of getting the R allele from dad =
2 2 4
Hypothesis: The color of bead that is picked or the side of a coin that lands face up
does not affect the result of the next selection or flip.
€
Materials (per pair of students):
 One paper sack
 2-4 purple beads
 2-4 white beads
 One coin

Methods:
1. Count the number of beads in your bag.
2. Record the number of beads of each color in Table 1
3. Put all of the beads into the bag.
4. Pull out one bead.
5. Record the color of bead you pulled out in Table 2
6. Return the bead to the bag
7. Repeat steps 3-5 19 more times.
8. Flip a coin 20 times and record whether each flip resulted in heads or tails in Table 3
 Results:
Table 1:
Color of Beads Number of Beads
Purple
White

Table 2:
Table 3 Trial Head or Tail
Trial Color of bead 1
1 2
2 3
3 4
4 5
5 6
6 7
7 8
8 9
9 10
10 11
11 12
12 13
13 14
14 15
15 16
16 17
17 18
18 19
19 20
20

1. For the bead color, the probability of selecting a purple bead is

number of purple beads
. Write this fraction here.
total number of beads

number of white beads

€ 2. The probability of selecting a white bead is . Write the
total number of beads
fraction here.

€
3. Using Table 1, express the probability of selecting a purple bead as a percentage.

4. Using Table 1, express the probability of selecting a white bead as a percentage.

5. Using Table 2, how many times did you select a purple bead?

6. Express the number of times you actually selected a purple bead as a percent of the
total selections.

7. Using Table 2, how many times did you select a white bead?

8. Express the number of times you selected a white bead as a percent of the total
selections.

9. Express the probability of getting tails as a fraction:

10. How many times did you get tails? What fraction of the flips resulted in tails?

Analysis and Questions:

1. Compare the percent of times you selected a purple bead to the percentage of
purple beads in the sack.

2. Compare the percent of times you selected a white bead to the percentage of white
beads in the sack.

3. Did the result of the coin flip (head or tail), affect whether you got a head or a tail on
the next flip? Explain your answer.
4. Imagine 2 plants are crossed. The dominant flower color is red (R) and the recessive
flower color is white (r).
a. For a heterozygous parent (they have one of each allele), what is the probability
that they will pass the white (r) allele on to their offspring? Express your answer
as a fraction.

b. For a heterozygous parent, what is the probability that they will pass the red (R)
allele to their offspring? Express your answer as a fraction.

c. Draw a Punnett square of two parents that are heterozygous for flower color:

5. Calculate the probability of an offspring getting the aa genotype from two

heterozygous parents. Express your answer as a fraction and show your work.

6. Calculate the probability of an offspring getting the Aa genotype from two

heterozygous parents. Remember Aa is the same as aA. Express your answer as a
fraction and show your work.

7. How do the fractions you determined in questions 5 and 6 compare to the number
of squares for each genotype in your Punnett square for question 4?

Conclusion:
Do the results support the hypothesis? Please explain your answer.
References:
Griffiths, A. J.F., Miller, J. H., Suzuki, D. T., Lewontin, R. C., and W. M. Gelbart. (1996). An
Introduction to Genetic Analysis. New York, NY: W. H. Freeman and Company.

Iman, R. L. (1994). A Data-Based Approach to Statistics. Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press.

Holt, Rinehart, and Winston. (2002). Cells, Heredity, and Classification. Houghton Mifflin
Harcourt.
Rubric (36 points possible):
____ Completing tables (6 points possible)
_____ Results Question 1 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 2 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 3 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 4 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 5 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 6 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 7 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 8 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 9 (1 point)
_____ Results Question 10 (1 point)
_____ Analysis Question 1 (2 points: follows from results, thoughtful comparison)
_____ Analysis Question 2 (2 points: follows from results, thoughtful comparison)
_____ Analysis Question 3 (2 points: follows from results, thoughtful comparison)
_____ Analysis Question 4 (a: 1 point, b: 1 point, c: 2 points)
_____ Analysis Question 5 (2 points: correctly set up, correct result)
_____ Analysis Question 6 (2 points: correctly set up, correct result)
_____ Analysis Question 7 (2 points: follows from results, thoughtful comparison)
_____ Conclusion (4 points: relevance to hypothesis, follows from results)