Define dependent event: A dependent event is an occurrence where the outcome or result of one event influences or

affects the outcome or result of another event. In other words, the probability of the second event is dependent on the
occurrence or non-occurrence of the first event.

Define critical path: The critical path in project management is the sequence of stages determining the minimum time
needed for an operation, especially the time required for an entire project. It is the longest path through a network diagram, and
any delay in any of its activities will directly impact the project's completion time.

State mined strategy: It seems there might be a typo in the question. Assuming you meant "mixed strategy," a mixed
strategy is a strategy in game theory where a player randomizes over multiple pure strategies with certain probabilities. It
introduces an element of unpredictability into the decision-making process, and the player's choice is not deterministic but
follows a probability distribution.

State unbalanced transportation problem: An unbalanced transportation problem occurs in the context of
transportation or distribution problems when the total supply does not equal the total demand. This means that the available
quantity for transportation is not equal to the quantity needed at the destination points.

Define saddle point: In the context of game theory and optimization, a saddle point is a solution to a matrix game where
the minimum value in a row is also the maximum value in its column. It represents a stable equilibrium point where neither
player has an incentive to unilaterally change their strategy.

Memorize mean service rate: Assuming there's a typo, and you meant "define mean service rate." The mean service rate
is a measure in queuing theory that represents the average rate at which a service system serves or processes incoming entities
(customers, requests, etc.). It is typically expressed as the reciprocal of the mean service time.

State full form of CPM: CPM stands for Critical Path Method.

Define Monte Carlo simulation: Monte Carlo simulation is a computational technique that uses random sampling to
model and analyze complex systems. It involves running multiple simulations with random inputs to assess the distribution of
possible outcomes and estimate the probabilities of different results in a given situation.

Define transition probability in Markov Chain : * Transition probability in a Markov Chain refers to the probability of
moving from one state to another in a single time step. Mathematically, it is denoted as P(X(t+1) = j | X(t) = i), representing the
probability of transitioning from state i to state j. * The state transition probability matrix of a Markov chain gives the
probabilities of transitioning from one state to another in a single time unit. It will be useful to extend this concept to longer
time intervals.

Mention the condition for a balanced transportation problem: * The condition for a balanced transportation problem is
that the total supply must equal the total demand. Mathematically, Σ Supply = Σ Demand. * If the total demand is equal to the
total supply, the problem is said to be a balanced transportation problem. If the total supply is greater than the total demand,
we can add a dummy demand node to create a balanced problem.

Define independent events in probability: * Independent events in probability are events where the occurrence or non-
occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence or non-occurrence of another event. Mathematically, P(A and B) = P(A) *
P(B), where A and B are independent events. * Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the
chances of the occurrence of the other event. The mathematical formulation of the independence of events A and B is the
probability of the occurrence of both A and B being equal to the product of the probabilities of A and B (i.e., P(A and B)

Write the condition for a saddle point in game theory: * In game theory, a saddle point occurs when the minimum
value in a row is also the maximum value in its column. Mathematically, if a_ij is the element in the ith row and jth column, and
a_ij is both the minimum in its row and maximum in its column, then it's a saddle point. * A Necessary and Sufficient condition
for a saddle point to exist is the presence of a Payoff Matrix element which is both a minimum of its row and a maximum of its
column. A Game may have more than one saddle point, but all must have the same Value.

Define EVPI (Expected Value of Perfect Information ): EVPI represents the maximum amount a decision-maker should be
willing to pay for perfect information before making a decision under uncertainty. It quantifies the value of additional
information that could eliminate all uncertainty.

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Write the format of LPP (Linear Programming Problem): The format of a Linear Programming Problem (LPP) is as follows:
Objective Function: Maximize or minimize a linear expression. Decision Variables: Variables representing quantities to be
determined. Constraints: Linear inequalities representing limitations on decision variables.

Define the critical path in a network diagram : The critical path in a network diagram is the longest path from the start to
the finish that determines the minimum time needed for the project. It consists of activities that, if delayed, would directly
extend the project's completion time.

List elements of a queuing system: Elements of a queuing system include: Arrival Process: How entities enter the system.
Service Process: How entities are served or processed. Queue: Where entities wait for service. Server: Resources providing the
service. Balking: Entities leaving without entering the queue. Reneging: Entities leaving the queue before being served.

Define Probability: Probability is a measure that quantifies the likelihood of an event occurring. It is expressed as a number
between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility, 1 indicates certainty, and values in between represent degrees of likelihood.

List techniques of initial solution for the Transportation problem: Techniques for finding the initial solution in the
Transportation problem include: North West Corner Method, Least Cost Method , Vogel's Approximation Method (VAM)
Enlist various methods of decision making under uncertainty: Methods of decision-making under uncertainty include: Maximax
Criterion, Maximin Criterion , Minimax Regret Criterion, Hurwicz Criterion , Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Decision Trees

What is a 2x2 zero-sum game? A 2x2 zero-sum game is a type of two-player game in which one player's gain or loss is exactly
balanced by the other player's loss or gain. The sum of the payoffs is always zero, making it a zero-sum game. Commonly
represented in a matrix form, it is often associated with basic examples in game theory.

Enumerate any two quantitative techniques for optimal decision in business: Two quantitative techniques for optimal decision-
making in business include: Linear Programming , Decision Analysis , List the drawbacks of graphical solution in LPP:

* Drawbacks of graphical solution in Linear Programming include: Limited to Two Variables: Graphical methods are practical
only when dealing with problems involving two decision variables. Lack of Precision: Graphical methods may not provide precise
solutions compared to algebraic methods. Complexity with Many Constraints: As the number of constraints increases, the
graphical representation becomes complex and hard to interpret.

Define total float in the Network diagram : Total float (or slack) in a network diagram is the amount of time an activity can
be delayed without delaying the project completion date. It represents the flexibility available in scheduling an activity without
affecting the overall project timeline.

Define (M/M/I, Infinite, FIFO) in Queuing theory : In queuing theory, (M/M/I, Infinite, FIFO) represents a queuing
system with the following characteristics: M/M/I: Markovian arrival and service times, multiple servers. Infinite: Infinite queue
capacity. FIFO: First In, First Out discipline for serving customers.

Two quantitative techniques for optimal decision-making in busines s are: 1. Linear Programming (LP) 2. Decision
Analysis.

Total float in a network diagram , often used in project management, represents the amount of time that a particular
activity within the project can be delayed without affecting the project's overall schedule. It is the amount of time that an
activity can be postponed without delaying the project's completion date.

No Float or Slack: - Activities on the critical path have zero float or slack, meaning any delay in these activities would result in
a delay for the entire project.

Project Deadline: - If any activity on the critical path is delayed, it will directly impact the project's completion date.
Therefore, managing and monitoring activities on the critical path is crucial for meeting project deadlines.

PERT and CPM: - Techniques like Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) are
commonly used to analyze and identify the critical path in project management.  State mined strategy Understanding the
critical path helps project managers focus their efforts on the most time-sensitive tasks, allocate resources efficiently, and make
informed decisions to keep the project on schedule.

Memorize mean service rate. It seems like there might be a misunderstanding or an incomplete phrase in your request.
The term "mean service rate" typically refers to a concept in queuing theory or operations management, specifically in the

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context of service systems. In queuing theory, the mean service rate is the average rate at which a service system (such as a
server or a processing unit) completes service for a unit of time. It is often denoted by the symbol \( \mu \).

total float in Network diagram. Total float, also known as total slack, in a network diagram is defined as the amount of
time that a project activity can be delayed without causing a delay to the project's overall completion date. It is a crucial concept
in project management, particularly in the context of scheduling and resource allocation

drawbacks of graphical solution in LPP. The graphical solution method for Linear Programming Problems (LPP) has
several drawbacks, particularly when applied to complex scenarios. ● Not Suitable for Large Scale Problems: ● Time-Consuming:
● Subjectivity in Interpretation: ● Complexity with Multiple Constraints: ● Accuracy Issues: ● Limited to Two Variables:

Discrete Random Variable is a type of random variable that can take on a finite or countably infinite number of distinct
values. Each value of a discrete random variable corresponds to a specific probability, and the probabilities for all possible values
of the variable sum to 1.

pure Strategy Game is a type of game in game theory where each player consistently chooses one specific action or
strategy, without any randomness or mixed strategies. In a pure strategy, a player always opts for the same action every time
the game is played, regardless of the other players' choices

Modified Distribution Method (MODI), also known as the u-v method, is an efficient technique used in operations
research to find the optimal solution to transportation problems. It improves upon the Stepping Stone Method by simplifying
the process of checking for optimality and reducing the number of calculations required.

Hurwicz Alpha Criterion is a decision-making approach used under conditions of uncertainty, allowing decision-makers to
balance optimism and pessimism when evaluating different strategies or alternatives. This criterion is particularly useful when
the probabilities of various outcomes are unknown or difficult to ascertain.

mixed strategy. The Single Server Queuing Model is a fundamental concept in queuing theory, which studies the behaviour of
queues in various systems. This model focuses on scenarios where there is only one server available to handle incoming requests
or customers

Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique used to model and analyse the potential outcomes of uncertain events
by employing repeated random sampling. This method allows for the estimation of probabilities and the prediction of a range of
possible results based on varying input values.

Mention condition for balanced transportation problem. A transportation problem is considered balanced when the total
supply from all sources equals the total demand at all destinations.

a) Explain the applications of Markov chain: Markov chains have many applications as statistical models of real-
world processes, such as studying cruise control systems in motor vehicles, queues or lines of customers arriving at
an airport, currency exchange rates and animal population dynamics. What is Markov Chain Markov chain refers to
mathematical system that undergoes transitions from one state to other as per some probabilistic rules. The defining
characteristic of this chain is that no matter how system arrived at its current state, the possible future states are
fixed. The probability of transitioning to any particular state relies solely on current state and time elapsed. For
example, consider a weather model that predicts the weather for a particular region over the next week. Each day,
the weather can be either sunny, cloudy, or rainy. We can represent the weather for each day as a state in the
Markov chain. If we know that the weather today is sunny, we can use the probabilistic rules of the Markov chain to
predict the weather tomorrow. For example, if the weather has a 60% chance of being sunny, a 30% chance of being
cloudy, and a 10% chance of being rainy, then we can say that there is a 60% chance that the weather will be sunny
tomorrow.

Types of Markov Chain There are several different types of Markov chains, including: Finite Markov chains: These
are Markov chains with a finite number of states. The transition probabilities between states are fixed, and system
will then eventually reach a steady state in which the probabilities of being in each state become constant. An
example of a finite state Markov chain might be a model of a traffic light, with three states (red, yellow, green) and
transitions governed by the rules of the traffic light. Infinite Markov chains: These are Markov chains with an infinite
number of states. The transition probabilities between states are fixed, but the system may not reach a steady state.

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For example, a model of the spread of a virus through a population. The states of the Markov chain represent the
number of people who have been infected at any given time, and the transitions between states are governed by the
rate of infection and the rate of recovery. Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMC): These are Markov chains in
which the transitions between states occur at random times rather than at discrete time intervals. The transition
probabilities are defined by rate functions rather than probabilities. For example, the state of a CTMC could
represent the number of customers in a store at a given time, and the transitions between states could represent the arrival
and departure of customers. The probability of a system being in a particular state (e.g., the probability that there are a certain
number of customers in the store) can be calculated using the CTMC model.Discrete-time Markov chains (DTMC): These are
Markov chains in which the transitions between states occur at discrete time intervals. The transition probabilities are defined
by a transition matrix. For example, the state of a DTMC could represent the weather on a particular day (e.g., sunny, cloudy, or
rainy), and the transitions between states could represent the change in weather from one day to the next. The probability of a
system being in a particular state (e.g., the probability of it being sunny on a particular day) can be calculated using the DTMC
model.

Properties of Markov Chain There are also several properties that Markov chains can have, including: Irreducibility: Markov
chain is irreducible when it is possible to reach any state from any other state in a finite number of steps. Aperiodicity: A Markov
chain is aperiodic when it is possible to reach any state from any other state in a finite number of steps, regardless of the
starting state. Recurrence: A state in a Markov chain is recurrent if it is possible to return to that state in a finite number of
steps. Transience: A state in a Markov chain is transient if it is not possible to return to that state in a finite number of steps.
Ergodicity: A Markov chain is ergodic if it is both irreducible and aperiodic and if the long-term behaviour of the system is
independent of the starting state.Reversibility: A Markov chain is reversible if probability of transitioning from one state to
another is equal to the probability of transitioning from that state back to the original state.

*Markov chains find applications in various fields, including: Economics: Modeling economic systems, such as stock price
movements. Biology: Modeling genetic processes and population dynamics. Physics: Describing particle movements and
quantum mechanics. Computer Science: Analyzing algorithms and network protocols. Telecommunications: Studying data
transmission and network reliability.

b) Compare CPM and PERT: CPM (Critical Path Method): 1)Deterministic approach. 2)Assumes fixed time estimates for
activities. 3)Emphasizes on-time performance. 4) Used in projects with well-defined activities. 5)Suitable for projects with low
uncertainty.

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique): 1)Probabilistic approach. 2)Incorporates uncertainty through three time
estimates (optimistic, pessimistic, most likely).3)Focuses on time estimation and risk management.4)Suited for complex projects
with uncertain activity durations.4)Allows for probability analysis of project completion time.

c) Describe the importance of decision science in decision making: In short, Decision science is a practice that utilizes data and
analytical tools to make strategic decisions about anything for which probabilities can be calculated. It aims to balance the trade-
offs between competing objectives in a way that maximizes the value What is Decision Science?Decision Science is the
collection of quantitative techniques used to inform decision-making at the individual and population levels. It includes decision
analysis, risk analysis, cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis, constrained optimization, simulation modeling, and
behavioral decision theory, as well as parts of operations research, microeconomics, statistical inference, management control,
cognitive and social psychology, and computer science. By focusing on decisions as the unit of analysis, decision science provides
a unique framework for understanding public health problems, and for improving policies to address those problems. How is
decision science different from other research approaches?While most fields of research focus on producing new knowledge,
decision science is uniquely concerned with making optimal choices based on available information. Decision science seeks to
make plain the scientific issues and value judgments underlying these decisions, and to identify tradeoffs that might accompany
any particular action or inaction. What kinds of tools and methods do decision scientists use? Decision science utilizes a variety
of tools which include models for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, experimental and descriptive studies of
decision-making behavior, economic analysis of competitive and strategic decisions, approaches for facilitating decision-making
by groups, and mathematical modeling techniques.

Where is decision science used Decision science has been used in business and management, law and education, environmental
regulation, military science, public health and public policy. CHDS uses decision analytic methods to inform policies and practices
that improve population health by systematically integrating scientific evidence with explicit consideration of individual and
societal values for outcomes such as mortality, quality of life, and costs. Decision science combines various quantitative and

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analytical techniques to support decision-making processes. Its importance lies in: Optimization: Identifying the best decision
among alternatives to achieve objectives. Risk Analysis: Assessing potential risks and uncertainties associated with decisions.
Data-Driven Decisions: Utilizing data and analytics for informed decision-making. Resource Allocation: Efficient allocation of
resources to maximize outcomes. Modeling and Simulation: Creating models to simulate scenarios and analyze outcomes.
Improved Decision Quality: Enhancing the quality of decisions through systematic analysis. Strategic Planning: Supporting long-
term planning and strategic decision-making.

Discuss different decision environments in Decision Theory: The decision-making environment is often characterized by three
states: certainty, uncertainty, risk, conflict. A decision made in safe conditions, certainty, is a condition for which you know
which state of nature will occur in the future. We can think of security as a single case or an alternative *Decision environments
in Decision Theory include: Certainty: All information is known, and outcomes are predictable .Risk: Some uncertainty exists, but
probabilities can be assigned to various outcomes. Uncertainty: Limited information, and probabilities cannot be assigned.
Ambiguity: Lack of information, and decision-makers may not even know all possible outcomes. Environment of Decision
Making It is said that every manager’s primary responsibility is decision-making. Managers follow a sequential set of steps to
make good decisions that are in the interest of the firm. This process is known as decision making process. However, the
decision making environment is also an important factor in the process. Let us learn some important aspects of the Decision
making environment. Decision Making Environment The quality of the decisions made in an organization will dictate the success
or failure of the said business. So all the available information and alternatives must be studied before arriving at an important
decision. The process of decision making will help a great deal. Another factor that affects these decisions is the environment in
which they are taken. There are a few different types of environments in which these decisions are made. And the type of
decision making environment has an impact on the way the decision is taken. Broadly there are three basic types of decision
making environment. Let us take a brief look at each of them.

a) Describe the role of the linear programming problem (LPP) in managerial decision-making:

Linear programming is a mathematical technique that determines the best way to use available resources. Managers use the
process to help make decisions about the most efficient use of limited resources – like money, time, materials, and machinery. *
LPP plays a crucial role in managerial decision-making by providing a systematic approach to optimizing resource allocation. It
helps in: * Maximizing profits or minimizing costs. * Efficiently allocating resources. Planning production schedules. Balancing
conflicting objectives. *Identifying optimal solutions within given constraints

c) Determine the initial solution of the following transportation problem using the North West Corner Method: To provide a
solution, the specific transportation problem needs to be provided for further assistance. Please provide the details of the
transportation problem, including supply, demand, and cost matrix, for a more accurate explanation.

a) Discuss the use of CPM & PERT in Project Management: Critical Path Method (CPM): Focuses on determining the critical
path in a project, helping to identify the shortest time needed for project completion. It is particularly useful for projects with
well-defined activities and deterministic time estimates. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT): Incorporates
uncertainty by using probabilistic time estimates. PERT is suitable for projects with a high degree of uncertainty and helps in
identifying the probability of meeting project deadlines. PERT manages uncertain project activities, CPM manages predictable
project activities. PERT focuses on meeting or minimizing project duration, CPM focuses on time-cost-trade offs. PERT is a
probabilistic model, CPM a deterministic model. PERT has three estimates for each activity, CPM just one.

b) Explain the role of quantitative techniques in decision making: Quantitative techniques are a collection of programming and
statistical techniques that influence your decision-making process, especially about industry or business. It considers the use of
numbers, mathematical expressions, and symbols. Quantitative techniques provide decision-makers with tools to analyze
complex situations and make informed decisions based on numerical data. They include mathematical models, statistical
methods, and optimization techniques that aid in: * Analyzing and interpreting data. * Formulating and solving problems. *
Identifying optimal solutions. * Supporting decision-making under uncertainty.

c) Describe the steps in solving the Assignment Problem: The Assignment Problem involves assigning a set of tasks to a set of
resources in a way that minimizes the total cost or maximizes the total profit. The steps include: Formulate the Cost Matrix:
Create a matrix representing the costs or profits associated with each assignment. Apply the Hungarian Method: Use the
Hungarian algorithm to find the optimal assignment by iteratively modifying the cost matrix. Identify Assignment: Determine
the optimal assignment based on the modified matrix.

Check Optimality: Verify that the assignment is optimal by ensuring the minimum number of assignments covers all tasks and
resources. The Hungarian method is a computational optimization technique that addresses the assignment problem in
polynomial time and foreshadows following primal-dual alternatives. In 1955, Harold Kuhn used the term “Hungarian method”

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to honour two Hungarian mathematicians, Dénes Kőnig and Jenő Egerváry. Let’s go through the steps of the Hungarian method
with the help of a solved example. Hungarian Method to Solve Assignment Problems The Hungarian method is a simple way to
solve assignment problems. Let us first discuss the assignment problems before moving on to learning the Hungarian method.