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The Delphi Method in SC

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16 views11 pages

The Delphi Method in SC

Uploaded by

shobhit@nitie
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Saad Bin Majed

TH

E D
O
DE T H
LPHI ME
IN SUPPLY CHAIN
Saad Bin Majed

DEFINITION

The Delphi method is an iterative


process for building consensus among
a panel of experts on a particular
topic or issue. It provides a structured
way to leverage expert knowledge and
opinions to address complex problems
or make informed decisions.
Saad Bin Majed

HISTORY

The beliefs and practices surrounding the Oracle


of Delphi were deeply rooted in ancient Greek
mythology and religion, with the priestess believed
to be possessed by the spirit of Apollo during the
consultation process.

The principles of collective wisdom and expert


guidance embodied in the Delphi technique are
seen as a reflection of the ancient Greek
reverence for the Oracle's divine insights. In the
mid-20th century, the Delphi method was
developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s
(1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and
Nicholas Rescher, and has been used ever since,
together with various modifications and
reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphi
procedure.
Saad Bin Majed

THE DELPHI
METHOD
PROCESS

1. Choose a Facilitator: Select a facilitator, either


the researcher or a neutral party, who is familiar
with data collection.

2. Identify Experts: Assemble a panel of experts


with relevant knowledge on the topic.

3. Define the Objectives: Provide a clear definition


of the issue or problem to be explored.

4. Round 1 Questions: Ask broad, open-ended


questions or apply Likert Scale (Strongly disagree-
disagree-Somewhat disagree-Neither agree nor
disagree-Somewhat agree-Agree-Strongly agree)
to get the experts' initial views.
Saad Bin Majed

THE DELPHI
METHOD
PROCESS

5. Round 2 Questions: Develop questions based


on Round 1, asking more detailed questions to
clarify and expand on the issues.

6. Round 3 Questions: Focus the final round on


supporting decision-making, honing in on areas
of consensus.

7. Act on Findings: Analyze the final consensus,


for instance using tally sheets, to inform plans
and decisions.
Saad Bin Majed

PILLARS OF
THE DELPHI
METHOD

1. Structured Feedback: Participants provide


feedback through structured questionnaires in
multiple rounds, and the facilitator provides
controlled feedback between rounds to guide
the experts.

2. Anonymity: Participants remain anonymous


to each other throughout the process.

3. Iteration: The process involves multiple


rounds of questionnaires and feedback.
Saad Bin Majed

PILLARS OF
THE DELPHI
METHOD

4. Statistical Group Response: The final


outcome is based on the statistical
aggregation of the group's responses.

5. Heterogeneous Expert Panel: The method


relies on a diverse panel of subject matter
experts.

6. Facilitator Role: The facilitator's expertise


and impartiality manage the overall process,
design the questionnaires, and control the
feedback.
Saad Bin Majed
APPLICATION
OF THE
DELPHI
METHODS

Forecasting and planning


Group decision-making on complex
issues
Problem-solving and consensus-
building
Research and development
projects
Educational curriculum and training
program design
Healthcare policy and service
planning
Saad Bin Majed
ADVANTAGES
OF THE
DELPHI
METHOD

Provides different analyses and


information on complex issues
Forms extremely objective thinking
Expert-based decisions are likely to
be effective
Variety of options for decision
making
Encourages creative participation
due to anonymity
Facilitates implementation
Saad Bin Majed

DISADVANTAGES
OF THE DELPHI
METHOD

Long and tedious process


Expensive due to expert
involvement
Requires good connection
for providing and receiving
answers
Criteria can be subjective
and affected
Saad Bin Majed

S
A D
AD J E
BIN M A

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