Revitalising grasslands to sustain our communities: Plenary 2

Managing grassland systems in a changing climate: the search for

practical solutions

Jean-François Soussana A, Luis Gustavo Barioni B, Tamara Ben Ari A, Rich Conant C,
Pierre Gerber D, Petr Havlik E, Alexandre Ickowicz F and Mark Howden G
A
Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), Grassland Ecosystem Research, UR874, Clermont
Ferrand, France.
B
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA), Campinas, Brazil
C
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 USA
D
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Animal Production and Health Division, Rome, Italy
E
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schloßplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
F
CIRAD, UMR 112 SELMET, Montpellier, France
G
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
Contact email: [email protected]

Abstract. By the end of the XXIst century, a global temperature rise between 1.5 and 4°C compared to 1980-
1999 and CO2 concentrations in the range 550-900 ppm are expected, together with an increased frequency of
extreme climatic events (heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain) that is likely to negatively affect grassland
production and livestock systems in a number of world regions. Grassland management has a large potential
to mitigate livestock greenhouse gas emissions at a low (or even negative) cost, by combining a moderate
intensification, the restoration of degraded pastures and the development of silvo-pastoral systems. Climate
change vulnerability will be highest in regional hot spots with high exposure to climatic extremes and low
adaptive capacity, such as extensive systems in dryland areas. Biome shifts, with expansion or contraction of
the grassland biome, are projected by models. Resistance, resilience and transformation strategies can be used
for grassland adaptation. With sown grasslands, adaptation options include changes in forage species (e.g. use
of C4 grasses and of annual species) and genotypes and the use of grass-legume mixtures. Grazing
management can be adapted to increase the resilience of plant communities to climatic variability. Our
understanding of the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation in the grassland sector is still
limited and requires further research. Provided this understanding is gained, climate smart grassland systems
that sustainably increase productivity and resilience (adaptation), reduce greenhouse gas emissions
(mitigation), and enhance food security and development could be promoted. By reducing productivity gaps
and increasing livestock production efficiency, they would also contribute to mitigate climate change from
tropical deforestation and expansion of grasslands into savannahs.

Keywords: Climate change, pasture, livestock, adaptation, greenhouse gas, mitigation.

Introduction Livestock production systems emit 37% of

anthropogenic methane (Martin et al. 2009) most of that
The grassland biome, which corresponds to a permanent from enteric fermentation by ruminants. Moreover, they
herbaceous vegetation used by wild and domestic induce 65% of anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions, the
herbivores, covers about one-quarter of the earth’s land great majority from manure (FAO, 2006), and 9% of global
area (Ojima et al. 1993). Grasslands are currently estimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The largest share (i.e. 7%)
to contribute to the livelihoods of over 800 million people of this CO2 emission derives from land-use changes –
(Reynolds et al. 2005) and provide a range of goods and especially deforestation – caused by expansion of pastures
services to support flora, fauna and human populations. and of arable land for feed crops. Nevertheless, the global
Except within eco-geographical regions where vegetation is soil organic carbon sequestration potential is estimated to
maintained by climate and soil factors at herbaceous stage, be 0.01 to 0.3 Gt C/year on 3.7 billion ha of permanent
most of the grasslands around the world are the result of pasture (Lal 2004). Thus soil C sequestration by the
livestock management avoiding encroachment by shrubs world’s permanent pastures could potentially offset up to
and trees (Lauenroth, 1979; Lemaire et al. 2005). Humans 4% of the global green house gas (GHG) emissions. This
utilize about 40% of the Earth’s net primary production could be achieved through grazing land management and
(Rojstaczer et al. 2001). Grazing and fodder would restoration of degraded lands (Smith et al. 2008). Reducing
represent half of this global appropriation by humans of excessive nitrogen (N) fertilization and the substitution of
plant productivity (Karlheinz Erb, Institute of Social Ecol. mineral N fertilizers by biological N fixation, as well as
Vienna, pers. com.). improved nutrition of domestic ruminants to reduce

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 Managing grassland systems in a changing climate

methane from enteric fermentation and improved manure price volatility and contributing to changes in trade flows
management can also play a significant role (Smith et al. (Lobell et al. 2008). It is highly likely (more than a 90%
2008). chance) that by the end of the 21st century, growing season
For the first time, the atmospheric CO2 concentration temperatures in most of the tropics and subtropics will
has reached in May 2013 a level of 400 ppm at the Mauna exceed even the most extreme seasonal temperatures
Loa station in Hawaï, indicating a +85 ppm increase after recorded from 1900 to 2006 (Battisti and Naylor 2009). For
55 yrs of continuous measurement. The current level of instance, in Europe, in the next 40 years, the risk of
atmospheric CO2 is the highest experienced by the bio- summers as warm as 2003 may increase by two orders of
sphere since at least 800,000 yrs and the current mean magnitude and may approach the norm by 2080 under high
global temperature is slightly above the temperature range emission scenarios.
experienced during the Holocene, which has seen the onset In this review, we first set the scene by sketching
and expansion of agriculture since ca. 10,000 yrs BP global trends in the livestock sector for a range of socio-
(Marcott et al. 2013). By the end of the 21st century, the economic storylines and climate change scenarios and we
biosphere will be experiencing unchartered conditions with discuss how climate change impacts on grasslands could
a temperature rise between 1.5 and 4°C compared to 1980- affect the sector. We then review the impacts of climatic
1999 and CO2 concentrations in the range 550-900 ppm and atmospheric change on grasslands and we provide a
(IPCC 2007). Until recently, it was expected that despite series of examples concerning likely regional hot spots.
climate change and increasing world population, there Finally, we review the scope for adaptation and for
would be several decades with food surplus – and low practical management solutions that would also increase
prices – ahead (IPCC 2007). Nevertheless, food insecurity soil carbon sequestration and mitigate greenhouse gas
has increased in the context of the inter-linked food and emissions. We conclude by key priorities for grassland
economic crisis since 2008. Actions taken so far are not science in this area in future years.
sufficient to overcome the crisis, let alone reduce the
chronic food and nutrition security problems (Von Braun
Setting the global scene
2008). Within the European Commission AnimalChange project
Grassland production is intimately linked to climate (www.animalchange.eu), we have analysed the develop-
conditions and therefore highly exposed to climate change. ment of the livestock sector and of grassland production
Short-term natural extremes such as storms and floods, since 1961. Feed mixes (including grassland use) and feed
inter-annual to decadal climate variability (such as the El conversion efficiency were calculated for global dairy and
Niño) have significant effects on crop and pasture meat production systems for the reference year 2005 based
production (Tubiello et al. 2007). Between 1980 and 1999, on the report by FAO (2013). Past changes since 1961 were
severe droughts have caused mortality rates in national back cast using the AgRipe (Agricultural Representative
herds of between 20% and 60% in several arid sub-Saharan Pathways and Emissions) framework (Ben Ari et al. in
countries (IPCC 2007). Again, in 2009-2011, droughts preparation), which relates the demand and supply of food
triggered a looming humanitarian and food crisis in some and feed and the agricultural GHG emissions. We then
countries, which would affect more than 10 million people analyzed the projections of a coupled biophysical partial
across the region. equilibrium economic model (Globiom, Havlik et al. 2011),
The climate system is already moving beyond the which simulates changes in the livestock sector for each of
patterns of natural variability. The extreme drought and the three SSPs.
heatwave that hit Europe in the summer of 2003 was Estimates of the global net primary productivity (NPP)
unprecedented since at least 1500. It caused a green fodder of grasslands and rangelands have been derived from
deficit of up to 60% in affected countries like France. In satellite measurements. FAO (2006) reported a mean global
Switzerland fodder had to be imported from as far away as grassland NPP of 1046 g C/ m2/yr. Assuming that half of
Ukraine. In the USA, heatwaves in 2005, 2006 and 2007 plant productivity is partitioned above-ground and that ca.
broke all-time records for high maximum and minimum 30% of this above-ground growth can be ingested by
temperatures, and drier than average conditions were grazing, the potential herbage use would reach 173 tons C/
reported for more than 50% of the conterminous United km2, that is 433 tons DM/km2 (assuming a 40% carbon
States in 2000–2002, 2006–2007 and 2012. In Australia, content). However, only a small fraction (ca. 16 %, FAO,
the widespread six-year drought from 2001 to 2007 is 2013) of this potential appears to be effectively used by
considered the most severe in the nation’s history ruminants, as a consequence of an insufficient digestibility
A further drying of large parts of the subtropics is and quality, especially in degraded pastures, and of a short
likely by the end of this century (IPCC 2007a). Amplificat- duration of use of some of the pastures (e.g. in open ranges
ion of the hydrological cycle as a consequence of global from mountain areas and dry areas which are often used
warming is forecast to lead to more extreme intra-annual sporadically). In 2005, on a protein basis, 58 and 70% of
precipitation regimes characterized by larger rainfall events the total feed ingested by dairy cattle and meat animals,
and longer intervals between events (IPCC 2007a). Unless respectively, came from grasslands. On a global scale, total
major adaptations are made, high seasonally averaged feed conversion efficiency (tons animal proteins production
temperatures will challenge food production in the future. per tons of total plant proteins ingested) of global dairy and
Global climate change can be expected to threaten food ruminant meat production systems was estimated at 0.119
supply through changing patterns of rainfall and increasing and 0.057, respectively (Ben Ari et al. in preparation).
the incidence of extreme weather, leading to greater Based on this calibration for the reference year 2005,
variability of grassland production, but also increasing calculations with AgRipe allow back casting trends in the

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 Soussana et al.

sector over 1961-2005. During this time period, the fraction GHG emissions by 2050.
of grassland herbage in the diets of domestic ruminants With the sustainable development projected under
declined by 3.4% per decade, while the average ruminant SSP1, a convergence towards healthy nutritional targets is
feed conversion efficiency increased by 8% per decade assumed for food which reduces the global demand for red
(Ben Ari et al. in preparation). These changes reflect the meat and to a lesser extent for dairy products. With this
intensification of livestock production, through an increase- storyline, ruminant feeding efficiency would increase at the
ing proportion of arable feed (including food crop grains, same rate (7 % per decade) as before, but the use of
crop residues and fodder) in diets and improvements in herbage in the diets would decline at an accelerated pace (-
husbandry and breeding that together raised feed efficiency. 5.5% per decade) and, hence, the global herbage con-
Interestingly, this rise in feed conversion efficiency reduced sumption by ruminants would be reduced by 40% by 2050
the direct (not including emissions induced by land use compared to 2005. The grassland area would not vary
change and inputs) GHG emissions of the global livestock significantly and the livestock global direct GHG emissions
production per unit animal protein by 23% over 1961-2005. would be stabilized in 2050 at the same level as in 2005.
Nevertheless, direct GHG emissions from the livestock However, in some regions the under-utilisation of grass-
sector increased by 85% over 1961-2005, due to the lands may lead to increased encroachment by woody
sector’s rapid growth. (Ben Ari et al. in preparation). vegetation with consequent reductions in GHG emissions
The FAO projects a large increase in demand for both (Elridge et al. 2011).
dairy products and ruminant meat, which includes primarily The SSP3 storyline depicts a fragmented world
beef but also mutton and goat (Alexandratos and Bruinjsma characterized by a fast growth in population and a slower
2012). Even though continuing improvements in feeding global rise in GDP per capita and in animal products
efficiency within each production system are assumed, the demand than in the business-as-usual scenario. With this
shift in production from developed to developing countries storyline, ruminant feeding efficiency would increase at a
implies that overall feeding efficiencies would progress at a much slower rate (0.75 % per decade) than in the past and
slower pace in the future than in the past. Shared socio- the use of herbage in the diets would be almost stable (-
economic storylines are being developed under the auspices 0.6% per decade). The global direct livestock GHG
of the IPCC. Each storyline provides a brief narrative of the emissions would increase by 30% and, moreover, GHG
main characteristics of the future development path (see emissions from tropical deforestation would be fostered by
Kriegler et al. 2012): the 20% rise in grassland area in 2050 compared to 2005.
• SSP1 is the sustainable world with strong development Given their assumptions for the energy sector, these
goals that include reducing fossil fuel dependency and storylines lead to contrasted levels of global warming (i.e.
rapid technological changes directed towards enviro- +1.5, +2.0 and +2.5°C global warming by 2090-2099
nmentally friendly processes including yield-enhancing compared to 1980-1999, assuming that SSPs 1, 2 and 3
technologies. match the 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 W/m2 global radiative forcing
scenarios (see Rogelj et al. 2012). This implies that climate
• SSP2 is the continuation of current trends with some change would have moderate impacts on grasslands
effort to reach development goals and reduction in productivity under SSP1 and larger impacts under SSP2
resource and energy intensity. On the demand side, and SSP3. Moreover, the livestock sector depends more on
investments in education are not sufficient to slow grassland resources under SSP2-3 than under SSP1.
rapid population growth. In SSP2 there is only an inter- We have tested with AgRipe the sensitivity of dairy
mediate success in addressing vulnerability to climate and ruminant meat production to a climate change induced
change. decline in grassland productivity by the end of the century.
• SSP3 is a fragmented world characterized by strongly These tests can only be seen as preliminary, since they
growing population and important regional differences assume no climate change impacts on arable crops and on
in wealth with pockets of wealth and regions of high animal physiology. With SSP3, first results indicate that
poverty. Unmitigated emissions are high, low adaptive under climate change a 15% decline in global grassland
capacity and large number of people vulnerable to productivity by 2050 would reduce global ruminant meat
climate change. Impacts on ecosystems are severe. and milk production by ca. 8% compared to a control
Business-as-usual projections (SSP2) for the global without climate change. Global ruminant livestock product-
food demand are consistent with the expert study by ion would be less affected (-5 %) under SSP2 and would
Alexandratos and Bruinjsma (2012). This storyline assumes only be marginally modified by climate change under
a continuation of the intensification trend, although at a SSP1.
slower pace (4.6% increase in ruminant feed conversion Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts in a
efficiency per decade), as growth is expected to take place traditional sense; rather they are images of the future, or
mainly in developing countries which have a lower feed alternative futures that are meant to assist in climate change
efficiency. During this time period, the fraction of analysis (Nakicenovic, 2000). Among the many uncertaint-
grassland herbage in the diets of domestic ruminants would ies associated to such projections, we will now focus on the
decline at the same rate as before 3.4% per decade. Hence, response of grasslands to climate change drivers.
the global herbage DM used by ruminants would be Climate change impacts on grasslands
reduced by 0.5% per decade despite a small increase in
grassland area (ca. 1.5% per decade). Compared to 2005, Climate change encompasses a range of major drivers
these trends translate into a 50 % rise in the livestock direct (atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and

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 Managing grassland systems in a changing climate

precipitation). Local changes in these drivers during the is the major response to elevated atmospheric CO2
course of the century are less uncertain for atmospheric concentrations in C3- or C4- grassland species that are
CO2 than for seasonal temperatures and precipitations. exposed frequently to water stress (Casella and Soussana
Grassland response to these drivers is complex and is 1997; Aranjuelo et al. 2005; Stokes and Ash 2006).
affected by interactions with water availability, nutrients, Moreover, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations can
soil, vegetation and management conditions. Over the past reduce depletion of soil moisture content in different
30 years, dozens of experiments have been undertaken to natural and semi-natural temperate and Mediterranean
understand the impacts of climate change on grasslands. grasslands (Morgan et al. 2004). These results support a
However, since most of these experiments are located in view that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration reduces
temperate and Mediterranean climatic areas, far less is the sensitivity to low precipitation in grassland ecosystems
known about climate change impacts on tropical grasslands (Volk et al. 2000; Morgan et al. 2004; Stokes and Ash
and drylands. 2006).
Impacts of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis and Interactions of elevated CO2 with nutrients
productivity Over a number of studies it has been found that plants
Elevated CO2 concentrations stimulate photosynthesis, grown in conditions of high nutrient supply respond more
leading to increased plant productivity and modified water strongly to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than
and nutrient cycles (e.g. Kimball et al. 2002; Nowak et al. nutrient-stressed plants (Poorter 1998). FACE experiments
2004). Experiments under optimal conditions show that confirm that high N soil contents increase the relative
doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases leaf response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations
photosynthesis by 30-50 % in C3-plant species and by 10– (Nowak et al. 2004; Stokes and Ash 2006). With L.
25% in C4-species, despite a small but significant down- perenne, in the Swiss FACE experiment, increasing the N
regulation of leaf photosynthesis by elevated atmospheric fertilizer application changed the grass dry-matter yield
CO2 concentrations at some sites (Ellsworth et al. 2004; response to elevated CO2 from being not significant to a
Ainsworth and Long 2005). Photosynthesis in a sward significant yield increase of +17% (Schneider et al. 2004;
canopy has also been found to increase by 30% (Casella Luescher and Aeschlimann 2006).
and Soussana 1997; Aeschlimann et al. 2005). With a sub-optimal supply of N fertilizer, the nitrogen
The stimulatory effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 nutrition index of the grass sward, calculated as the ratio of
concentrations on above-ground grassland ecosystem the actual: critical leaf N concentrations, was significantly
production reaches about 17% (Campbell et al. 2000; lowered under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Ainsworth et al. 2003; Nowak et al. 2004), although (Soussana et al. 1996; Zanetti et al. 1997). This indicates a
responses for particular systems and seasonal conditions lower availability of inorganic N for the grass plants under
can vary widely. However, the long-term response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which was also
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations may differ apparent from the significant declines in the annual N yield
substantially from the short-term response. In the Swiss of the grass sward and in the nitrate leaching during winter
FACE experiment, the yield response of Lolium perenne to (Soussana et al. 1996). At low N fertilization, this N limit-
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration increased from 7 ation was also apparent over the 10 years of fumigation in
to 32% over a number of years under high applications of the Swiss FACE experiment with monocultures of L.
nitrogen (N) fertilizer. This increase was probably due to perenne (Daepp et al. 2000; Schneider et al. 2004).
removing N limitation to plant growth through the Changes observed in the high N-fertilized swards of L.
application of N fertilizer (Luescher and Aeschlimann perenne may be summarized as decreasing N limitation
2006). Therefore, the immediate response at the start of a (Luescher et al. 2006) in reference to the concept of
CO2 enrichment experiment is not an appropriate base on progressive N limitation in natural systems (Luo et al.
which to predict the impacts of the ongoing gradual 2004). The CO2-induced N limitation was alleviated in the
increase in atmospheric CO2 (Thornley and Cannell 2000). high N-fertilizer treatment only by supplying a significant
Moreover, the effects of elevated CO2, as measured in external input of N. These results confirm that N is a major
experimental settings and subsequently implemented in limiting factor in the response of grasslands to elevated
models, may overestimate actual field and farm-level atmospheric CO2 concentrations. When other nutrients are
responses because of interactions with many limiting not strongly limiting, a decline in N availability may be
factors such as high temperatures, low nutrient prevented by an increase in biological N2-fixation under
concentrations, droughts, pests, weeds and air pollutants. elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Gifford 1994).
We still do not know how much of the CO2 fertilizing Indeed, in fertile grasslands, legumes benefit more from
effect will remain under these complex conditions elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than non-fixing
(Tubiello et al. 2007; Soussana et al. 2010). species (Hebeisen et al. 1997; Luescher et al. 1998)
resulting in significant increases in symbiotic N2 fixation
Interactions of elevated CO2 with water availability (Soussana and Hartwig 1996; Zanetti et al. 1997).
Water availability plays a major role in the response of However, other nutrients, such as phosphorus, may act as
grasslands to climate change, with marked declines of the main limiting factor restricting growth and responses in
productivity under increased water deficits, although there yield in legumes to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This
are differences in species response (Izaurralde et al. 2011). has been demonstrated both in calcareous grasslands
Increased productivity from increased water-use efficiency (Stöcklin et al. 1998) and under controlled environmental

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 Soussana et al.

conditions (Almeida et al. 2000). concentrations, warmer temperatures and altered seasonal
precipitations (Hopkins and del Prado 2007).
Elevated CO2-induced changes in soil C and N cycles Changes in species composition are also an important
Plants grown under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrat- mechanism altering production of herbage and its value for
ions generally increase the partitioning of photosynthates to grazing livestock in arid areas with changes in herbaceous
roots which increases the capacity and/or activity of below- species composition, in semi-arid rangelands with the
ground C sinks. In monocultures of L. perenne under invasion of woody shrubs (Elridge et al. 2011) and in warm
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the imbalance humid climates with the invasion of C4-species. Grassland
between a strongly increased C uptake in the shoot zone weed distribution may also vary with climate change. For
and a relatively reduced N uptake from the soil leads to an instance, the Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana),
increased partitioning in growth to the root system native to South America, has naturalised sporadically in
(Soussana et al. 1996; Hebeisen et al. 1997; Suter et al. parts of Western Europe, and more widely in Australia and
2002). The ratio between leaf area index: total plant (root New Zealand, where it has become a serious grassland
and shoot) biomass varied with the N supply, the weed. Under the future climate scenarios, a mean global
atmospheric CO2 concentration and the temperature (Calvet reduction of 32% in the area of suitable climate is
and Soussana 2001). As a result of these interactions, soils projected, with marked reductions in the native range and
could cause spatial variation in CO2 effects on above- also in Africa, Asia, North America, and Australia. By
ground Net Primary Productivity and other ecosystem contrast, projected expansions eastward in Europe and
attributes (Fay et al. 2012). westward in New Zealand, result from increases in suitable
area (Bourdôt et al. 2012).
Plant species dynamics and diversity
Interactions between elevated CO2 and climate
Much of the world’s grasslands are characterized by change
pastures that are botanically diverse. In a field experiment
with varying levels of plant species diversity, the biomass Experiments with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations
accumulation in response to elevated levels of atmospheric and increases in temperature and precipitation have shown
CO2 concentrations was greater in species rich than in increased net primary production with strong multi-factor
species-poor assemblages (Reich et al. 2001). In some interactions, including changes in species distribution and
studies grassland communities grown in elevated CO2 litter composition (e.g. Shaw et al. 2002; Zavaleta et al.
concentrations have displayed higher plant species diversity 2003; Henry et al. 2005). Nevertheless, even under
than controls under ambient CO2 concentrations elevated CO2, the annual production of a semi-natural
(Teyssonneyre et al. 2002a) but this was not confirmed in grassland in a French upland site was significantly reduced
other studies (e.g. Zavaleta et al. 2003; Cantarel et al. by four years exposure to climatic conditions correspond-
2013). ing to the A2 emission scenario for the 2070s (Cantarel et
In mixtures containing grass, legume and nonlegume al. 2013).
dicotyledonous species, the proportion of legumes was The projected rise in climatic variability will tend to be
significantly higher at elevated atmospheric CO2 con- associated with more extreme weather patterns (IPCC
centrations (Luescher et al. 1996). This effect was also 2007a), leading to a potential for negative surprises that has
observed in diverse permanent plant communities in FACE not been fully explored, thus reducing the level of
and mini-FACE experiments (Teyssonneyre et al. 2002a; confidence in regional and global projections (Tubiello et
Harmens et al. 2004; Ross et al. 2004). In a mini-FACE al. 2007; Soussana et al. 2010). Combined with elevated
experiment, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change is, there-
significantly increased the proportion of dicotyledonous fore, likely to cause profound changes in the diversity,
species (forbs and legumes) and reduced that of the productivity and stability of grassland ecosystems. Results
monocotyledons (grasses). Management differentiated this from a macrocosm experiment with the French Ecotron
response as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (www.ecotron.cnrs.fr) shows that elevated CO2 can
increased the proportion of forbs when the plants were alleviate the impacts of a prolonged drought and heat event
defoliated infrequently and of legumes when frequently by inducing a compensatory regrowth of semi-natural
defoliated (Teyssonneyre et al. 2002a). grasslands after the end of the stress period (Picon-Cochard
In subsequent studies of between-species competition et al. in preparation).
among three grasses, it was observed that grasses that Experimental manipulation combining heat and
capture relatively more light per unit leaf area in mixtures drought extremes shows large negative impacts on above-
than their competitors become increasingly dominant under ground production, however with over-compensatory
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Teyssonneyre et growth in the year following the extreme associated with
al. 2002b). Moreover, a high N-use efficiency can confer a plant community structure resilience (Zwicke et al. 2013 in
competitive advantage under elevated atmospheric CO2 press). With sown forage grasses (Dactylis glomerata and
concentrations to mixed grasses (Soussana et al. 2005). Festuca arundinacea), Mediterranean populations were
Such experiments show that the diversity and botanical more resilient than temperate populations to an extreme soil
composition of temperate grasslands is likely to be affected water deficit (Poirier et al. 2012), which underlines the
by the current rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and potential for breeding better adapted plant material.
that guidelines on grassland management will need to be Repeated exposure of grasslands to summer droughts
adapted to a future world of high atmospheric CO2 increased weed pressure by tap rooted forbs such as Rumex

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 Managing grassland systems in a changing climate

sp. (Gilgen et al. 2010). Moreover, increases in climatic climate, soil properties, pasture species and grazing animals
extremes may suppress the dominance of C3-species and although many challenges remain in providing robust
promote C4-species, including weeds, due to faster simulations at landscape level especially in tropical regions.
migration rates, greater production of seeds, better ability to In order to assess uncertainties arising from the variability
colonize many habitats and rapid maturity (White et al. across models, an ensemble of downscaled climate models
2001). is needed to reflect the local distribution of key climatic
A meta-analysis shows that physiological drought variables like rainfall (Challinor et al. 2007; Graux et al.
tolerance varies tenfold across grass species and is well 2013, Moore and Ghahramani 2013).
distributed both climatically and phylogenetically, suggest- Several modeling studies have shown compensatory
ing most native grasslands are likely to contain a high effects of elevated CO2 and climate change at temperate
diversity of drought tolerance. Consequently, local species sites (Parton et al. 1995; Riedo et al. 1999). The combinat-
may help maintain ecosystem functioning in response to ion of these two factors enhanced forage production and
changing drought regimes without requiring long-distance soil organic matter, however, with considerable variation
migrations of grass species (Craine et al. 2013). Moreover, across sites, management and local climatic conditions
seedling survivorship of temperate grassland perennials is (Riedo et al. 2000, 2001; Holden and Brereton 2002; Graux
remarkably resistant to projected changes in rainfall, with a et al. 2013a,b). In addition, warming extended the growing
rainfall reduction of 40% reducing survivorship only by season (Hunt et al. 1991) and shortened the plant
10% (Perring and Hovenden 2012). phenology (Juin et al. 2004). These impacts were
anticipated to affect grassland and livestock management
Forage quality (Holden and Brereton 2002; Juin et al. 2004) and
To meet the maintenance requirements of livestock for profitability (Parsons et al. 2001). With grass based dairy
crude protein implies that the concentration of crude systems, simulations under the A1B scenario with an
protein in herbage from pastures should be 70– 80 g/kg DM ensemble of downscaled GCMs show by the end of the
and to meet the requirements of the highest producing dairy century increases in potential dairy production in Ireland
cows it should be up to 240 g/kg DM. In conditions of very and France, however with increasing risks of summer-
low soil N status, the reduction in crude protein con- autumn forage production failures at French sites
centrations of herbage under elevated atmospheric CO2 (Fitzgerald et al. 2010; Graux et al. 2013) . In continental
concentrations may put a system into a sub-maintenance Europe, grass based dairy systems could suffer from rising
level for animal performance or require animals to be more water deficits and forage yield variability (Trnka et al.
selective in their grazing. C4-grasses are a less nutritious 2009).
food resource than C3-grasses both in terms of a reduced Responses of sheep and cattle grazing systems to
crude protein concentration of herbage and in higher C:N climate and CO2 changes can vary markedly across
ratios. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will likely environments. For example, Moore and Ghahramani (2013)
alter food quality to grazers both in terms of fine-scale show that climate changes reduce productivity and profit to
(crude protein concentration and C:N ratio) and coarse- a greater degree in dry sites in Australia than in wetter sites
scale (C3-species vs. C4-species) changes (Ehleringer et al. where there may be some chance of increased productivity
2002). However, when legume development is not and profit similar to that found by others (e.g. Cullen et al.
restricted by adverse factors (such as low soil phosphorus 2012). Impact can also vary with pasture type: Bell et al.
content and low soil moisture content), an increase in the (2012) simulated that sheep grazing systems at four sites in
proportion of legumes in swards may compensate for the southern Australia show lower pasture intakes and lamb
decline in the crude protein concentration of non-fixing live weights at weaning in future climates with C3
plant species (Hartwig et al. 2000; Picon-Cochard et al. temperate pasture species. With warming, a site with a C4-
2004). In North American cattle production systems, future based pasture system became significantly more productive
increases in precipitation will probably not compensate for and with a lower GHG emissions intensity.
the declines in forage quality that accompany projected A probabilistic risk analysis can be developed, by
temperature increases, and cattle will experience greater defining risk as the product of hazard probability (e.g. the
nutritional stress in the future (Craine et al. 2010) likely probability of drought occurrence) and the response to
requiring nutrient supplements for example via molasses- hazard (Van Oijen et al. 2013). With this approach, a
urea licks. significant increase in exposure to summer drought risk
was evidenced for French grasslands (Graux et al. 2013).
Projecting the impacts of climate change Simulated future conditions show an increased inter-annual
Climate change impact analysis relies largely on down- and seasonal variability of grassland production. Dairy
scaling climate projections to develop regional climate production at grazing in summer is estimated to drop down
scenarios for use in agricultural systems models. This below one-third of the current median value in four out of
process of climate down-scaling is complicated by differ- 30 years for 2070–2099, whereas similar shortfalls were
ences in projections from greenhouse gas emission path- not observed with the baseline climate (Graux et al. 2013).
ways and, in particular, the wide variation across global A detailed analysis of risks under the A1B emission
climate model outputs and across downscaling methods scenario further shows that European grasslands could shift
(Soussana et al. 2010). With pastures, projected impacts of from a carbon sink (Schulze et al. 2009) to a carbon source
climate change can be estimated from projections of for the atmosphere, that may reach 270 TgC per year
mechanistic models that simulate the interactions between towards the end of the century (Lardy et al. in preparation).

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 Soussana et al.

Regional hot-spots for grasslands and livestock During the early twenty-first century droughts, satellite
vulnerability based studies for the USA and Australia indicate that
capacities and sensitivities of grassland and rangeland
Regional hot-spots to climate change can be characterized production were maintained through prolonged heat waves
through the combination of high exposure to climate and droughts by increases of ecosystem water use
change, high sensitivity (often because of other stressors efficiency during the driest years and resilience during wet
such as land degradation) and low adaptive capacity. years. During the driest years, the high-productivity sites
Below, we discuss the main factors that could be used to became water limited to a greater extent resulting in higher
define regional climate change hot-spots for grasslands. WUEe similar to that encountered in less productive, more
Exposure to climate change arid ecosystems (Ponce Campos et al. 2013). Nevertheless,
with continuing warm drought, significant drought-induced
Grasslands are the ecosystems that respond most rapidly to mortality reduces the water use efficiency and a loss of
precipitation variability. Increased aridity and persistent resilience appears (Ponce Campos et al. 2013).
droughts are projected in the twenty-first century for most
of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Dryland degradation and its sensitivity to climate
Americas, Australia and South East Asia (Field et al. change
2012). A number of these regions have a large fraction of Degradation of drylands typically shows one of the
their land use covered by grasslands and rangelands (Fig. following general patterns, mainly depending on the
1). precipitation received: either vegetation composition
Within each region, however, there are differences in changes, leading to shrub encroachment or vegetation cover
climatic trends which can also be seen through historical in general which is drastically reduced and the fraction of
analyses. In Brazil, a recent study (Carvalho et al. 2013), bare ground is increased with temporarily dominating
analyzing historical data from 1940 to 2011, has shown a annual grasses or forbs (Asner et al. 2004; Miehe et al.
trend for increased occurrence of dry spells in the Midwest 2010; Lohmann et al. 2012). Proliferation of woody plant
(the main cattle production region), but not in the South or species in semi-arid grasslands and savannas in recent
Southeast regions. In African Sahel, average regional history has been widely reported around the world. The
rainfall since more than a century shows an increase of causes for this shift in vegetation are controversial and
rainfall since 1990 following a period of important include changes in livestock grazing, fire, climate and
surpluses from 1950 to 1970 and of intense deficit and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Hibbard et al. 2001).
frequent drought crisis from 1970 to 1985 occurring when
Projected increases in climate variability and increases
two consecutive high annual deficits occur. Nowadays,
in the length of the dry summer period is likely to impact
despite an increase of average rainfall, we notice a high
negatively on ground cover in Mediterranean climates,
variability of annual rainfall average, close to what was
increasing soil erosion risks (Crimp et al. 2010). Moore and
reported in early XXth century.

Figure 1. Drought hot spots in global grazing lands by 2080-2100. The colour scale indicates the percentage cover by grazing land
in each grid cell. Circled in red, are areas with a significant increased number of consecutive dry days in 2080-2100 compared to
1980-2000 (Field et al. 2012).

© 2013 Proceedings of the 22nd International Grassland Congress 16

 Managing grassland systems in a changing climate

Ghahramani (2013) and Ghahramani and Moore (2013) adaptive capacity as an emergent property of the diverse
undertook simulation analyses which adjusted stocking forms of human, social, natural, physical and financial
rates to maintain the frequency of days with ground cover capital from which livelihoods are derived (Nelson et al.
<0.7 below location-specific thresholds so as to keep 2010a,b). The same approach has also been implemented at
erosion risk at acceptable levels. This resulted in regional (Crimp et al. 2010) and farm scales (Brown et al.
significantly greater reductions in productivity and profit 2012) and over time (Crimp et al. 2010). These types of
than would have been assessed on annual average NPP studies allow for more effective policy implementation to
alone. The sensitivity of systems to these types of non- build adaptive capacity. They also show that financial,
linear responses requires more study. social and human capital and the substitutability between
There could be competing drivers for shrub encroach- these are the main determinants of vulnerability rather than
ment into grasslands. On the one hand, increased mean environmental aspects such as climate. In contrast, other
temperatures may reduce shrub encroachment in some studies have indicated that the degree of vulnerability to
regions (Lohmann et al. 2012) and if this occurs, the climate change is particularly sensitive to the effects of
reduced competition from woody species in turn could precipitation on NPP (Hulme et al. 2001; Olesen 2002;
increase the success of alternative restoration measures FAO 2008a, b). But as noted above vulnerability is also a
such as the (re-)introduction of desired grass species. In function of socio-economic condition: the degree of
contrast, recent experimental and observational evidence exposure to climate (related to the degree of economic
suggests that factors such as increased rainfall intensity dependence on agriculture) and the capacity to adapt to
(Kulmatiski and Beard 2013), CO2 and fire (Eldridge et al. change in climate (Vincent 2004; Thornton et al. 2006).
2012) that may occur with climate changes may increase In areas with expected declines in forage yields,
woody encroachment, with the opposite effects on some increased occurrence of extreme events (direct effects of
restoration. drought, heat stress, flooding, etc. as well as indirect effects
Shifts in biomes such as pest outbreaks) coupled with low adaptive capacity,
can make smallholder subsistence pastoralists and farmers
Climate change may result in potential vegetation shifts. In highly vulnerable to climate change (Easterling et al.
the forest-savannah boundary of the Brazilian Amazon, 2007). Low-latitude, grazing land-dominated countries,
GCMs and land surface models depict a climate-driven while contributing the least to greenhouse gas emissions,
substitution of large portions of Amazonian forest by grass- may be the hardest hit, and the poor could suffer the
dominated ecosystems (Senna 2009; Silvério et al. 2013). greatest repercussions (FAO 2008c). Despite long-
Amazonia is likely to suffer a general reduction in rainfall established socio-economic systems to deal with persistent
and an increase in surface temperature (Oyama and Nobre inter-annual variation in precipitation (Thornton et al.
2003; Cox et al. 2004; Huntingford et al. 2004; Senna et al. 2006), such countries are uniquely vulnerable because they
2009), partly due to projected El Niño-like sea surface suffer from high temperatures, less predictable rainfall, and
temperature warming patterns (Cox et al. 2004) and substantial environmental stress (Oba et al. 2001; FAO
deforestation positive feedbacks on externally forced 2008c; Sheffield and Wood 2008).
climate change (Cox et al. 2004; Senna et al. 2009). In such Small-holders in particular often have the lowest
conditions, drought events associated with more intense capacity to adapt and are likely to be among the most
and frequent fires may facilitate the spread of invasive C4 vulnerable because social, economic, climatic risks are high
grasses over the Amazon (Silvério et al. 2013). in their environment and combined with low opportunities
In Western Africa, model results show a potential to adapt as a consequence of low investment of states in
‘greening’ trend by 2050, where the bioclimatic envelope local development and infrastructures, inadequate institute-
of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an ions, low access to information and unsecure rights on land
area of 2 million km2 (Heubes et al. 2011). However, there and natural resources (Easterling et al. 2007; Ickowicz et
is a large uncertainty which results from the variability in al. 2012). However, other authors note that people in some
projection by different climate (Global Circulation Models, disadvantaged conditions can be highly innovative and can
GCM) models and from the human impact of livestock have more adaptive capacity than more affluent neighbours
management. In China, an eastward shift and an expansion (Morton et al. 2007; Coulthard 2008)
of grasslands is projected by biome models forced by
Increased vulnerability under climate change would
GCMs under elevated CO2 (Ni, 2011). In Northern Europe,
result from decreased forage yields, decreased water
global warming may not necessarily expand the growing
availability, increased incidence of droughts and floods and
zone for temperate grasses to the north and east of the study
extreme events (Tubiello et al. 2007), significant extinction
area by 2050, since projections show continued risks of
of plant and animal species (World Bank 2007) and
frost damage to perennial ryegrass during winter, which
increased migration and civil conflict (Schmidhuber and
would limit the improvement of overwintering conditions
Tubiello 2007; FAO 2008c; IMF 2008).
(Höglind et al. 2013).
Adaptive capacity and vulnerability The search for practical solutions: how to adapt,
how to mitigate?
Enhancing the ability of individuals to respond to a
changing climate will occur through building adaptive To date, the assessment of synergies and trade-offs between
capacity. In Australia, a national composite index of mitigation and adaptation options in animal agriculture has
generic adaptive capacity of rural households expresses been limited (e.g. Smith and Olesen 2010).

Proceedings of the 22nd International Grasslands Congress 2013 17

 Soussana et al.

Towards climate smart grasslands However, they are likely to fail in regions exposed in the
future to e.g. prolonged droughts and heat waves. Such
Climate smart agriculture has been defined as agriculture resistance strategies may in fact lead to maladaptation, by
that sustainably increases productivity and resilience reducing the adaptive capacity of the grassland ecosystem
(adaptation), reduces GHGs (mitigation), and enhances and releasing CO2 to the atmosphere through soil
food security and development (FAO 2010). To develop degradation.
climate smart grassland systems, a sustainable Resilience strategies may be implemented by consider-
intensification, that would reduce productivity gaps and ing grasslands as a dynamic mosaic, formed by spatially
increase the efficiency of livestock production, especially heterogeneous resources which vary throughout time.
in developing countries, is required to enhance food Strategic inter-annual planning of the use of this resource
security and contribute to mitigate climate change by by the herd and in season tactical adjustments taking into
stopping deforestation and the expansion of grasslands into accounts differences between grassland fields in terms of
savannahs. vegetation and making use of animal mobility and animal
Recent reports of the lifecycle of dairy and meat reserves may improve the adaptive capacity of the managed
products to the farm gate and beyond show large grassland. Changes in livestock species (e.g. using zebu
differences in GHG emissions per unit animal product instead of beef cattle) and mixed grazing may also provide
across regions and across systems. Intensive systems, increased resilience. With perennial vegetation, the grazing
including grassland based temperate dairy and meat process can be improved by rotating animals while keeping
production, have much lower GHG emissions per unit a high instantaneous stocking density, often by herding or
production than extensive pastoral systems (FAO 2010 moving electrical fences which may be powered by
2013). Nevertheless, because of their low production levels photovoltaic in remote areas. In this way, a larger share of
extensive systems contribute in a limited way to the overall the available forage is used and grass growth can be
emissions of the sector and may thus not represent a maximized by limiting digestible carbon losses through
priority area for mitigation interventions, also in view of plant respiration and senescence. Such strategies are
their crucial contribution to food security in harsh already in place in some regions, but their future
environments. development may require advanced technologies such as
On a global scale, intensifying grassland production seasonal forecasting of weather conditions and pastures
will be required if we are to increase meat and milk geo-monitoring. Gharahmani and Moore (2013) show the
production from ruminants systems, while minimizing benefits of using multiple adaptations to address climate
competition for arable land between food and feed and changes can substantially outweigh those arising from
preserving biodiversity and ecosystem services (Thornton single adaptations. Nevertheless, particularly at the dry
2010). More productive and climate resilient grassland margins of current grazing, these multiple adaptations were
systems may also lead to beneficial side effects in terms of not enough to offset negative impacts and in such
carbon sequestration and reduction of GHG emissions per circumstances, even more substantial adaptation (called
unit animal production. However, win-win options are transformational adaptation) may be considered.
currently limited by gaps in our understanding, as well as Transformation strategies may move livestock farmers
by a number of economical and institutional barriers. out of the grassland sector since they may need to rely to a
Resistance, resilience and transformation strategies greater extent on other feed sources (e.g. conserved forage,
for grassland adaptation crop residues and by-products). However, depending on the
local context, adaptation of grassland systems may also
Resistance strategies (or incremental adaptation) seek to lead to other options which are detailed below (changes in
maintain the status quo over the near term through manage- pasture species, irrigation, pasture restoration, crop-pasture
ment actions that resist climate change disturbance integration, agro-forestry, etc…), with different options
(Easterling 2009; Walthall et al. 2013). Resistance available when contrasting tropical, temperate and
strategies, will likely increase in cost and difficulty over Mediterranean grasslands.
time, and may ultimately fail as climate change effects
intensify. Resilience strategies (or more systemic adaptat- Temperate and Mediterranean grasslands
ion) are typically proactive actions that increase the Generally speaking an environmentally sustainable
adaptive capacity so as to return to a healthy condition after intensification of grassland based animal production could
a climate disturbance with minimal management inter- be obtained by increasing net primary productivity and
vention. Transformation strategies increase adaptive herbage quality, while raising animal protein conversion
capacity by facilitating transition to a new system with a efficiencies (through breeding, nutrition and improved
different structure and function that is better suited to health), replacing inorganic N fertilizer inputs by biological
sustained production under rapidly changing climate N fixation and recycling efficiently the organic N from
conditions (Park et al. 2012, Rickards and Howden 2012). animal excreta. This would in effect increase the carbon
Resistance strategies include re-sowing a pasture after flowing towards both animal products and soils, while re-
it has failed because of a drought, overgrazing a degraded coupling the C and N cycles and reducing losses to the
pasture in order to cope with the after-effects of a climate environment.
extreme, frequently burning a degraded and encroached A moderate intensification of pastures. Temperate grass-
rangeland to restore herbage growth. Such resistance lands have often been intensified by combinations of: (1)
strategies are widespread currently, and they may be useful an increased primary production through an improvement
in the short term to cope with climatic variability. of the N-P-K status of vegetation; (2) an increased stocking

© 2013 Proceedings of the 22nd International Grassland Congress 18

 Managing grassland systems in a changing climate

density for converting more efficiently herbage production with less mineral N fertilizers and with an increased
into animal products; and (3) sowing, or over-sowing, of reliance on biological N fixation is a desirable objective in
improved grass and legume species. Intensification has order to reduce the costs of inputs, to avoid greenhouse gas
three contrasting effects for the carbon cycle of grasslands: emissions caused by the industrial synthesis and by the
first, an increase in the net primary productivity; second, a transport of mineral N fertilizers and to increase the
decline in the amounts of organic carbon returned to the digestibility and protein content of the herbage (Frame and
soil (Soussana et al. 2007); third, a possible decline in the Newbould 1986).
turnover of soil organic matter when nutrients are in ample Legumes have a distinct competitive advantage in N-
supply for soil microbes (reduced priming effect, Fontaine limited systems, but where mineral-N is abundant, N2
et al. 2007, 2011). Depending on the balance of these fixation is energetically costly and N2 fixers tend to be
effects, the impacts on the soil carbon balance may vary. competitively excluded by non-fixing species (Faurie et al.
Grassland intensification also leads to increased emissions 1996; Soussana and Tallec 2010). In a pan-European
of N2O from fertilizers and biological N fixation, and to experiment involving 17 countries, grass-clover mixtures,
increased methane emissions from enteric fermentation. In containing two species of grasses and two species of
comparison to an unfertilized control pasture, doubling the legumes frequently had a higher yield than the highest of
animal stocking density and supplying mineral N fertilizers the monoculture plots (Finn et al. 2013). Grass-legume
led to increased net GHG emissions per unit area at an mixtures with proportionately ca. 0.30 to 0.50 of legume in
upland permanent pasture site in France (Allard et al. pastures seem to be an optimal system: they yield high
2007). However, during dry years, the moderately intensive amounts of N from symbiosis, generate high net primary
grassland was more resilient in terms of carbon storage, production, produce forages of high nutritive value, which
emitted less GHGs, and provided increased cattle live- generates high voluntary intakes and livestock performance
weight gains (Klumpp et al. 2011). Therefore, a moderate and, at the same time, they prevent the risk of N losses to
intensification of permanent pastures could provide an the environment and they may store more carbon in the soil
interesting combination of mitigation and adaptation. than fertilized grass monocultures (Luescher et al. 2012;
In contrast, some grasslands have been over-intensified Soussana et al. 2004). Moreover, temperate legumes may
with excess N fertilizer applications, leading to large direct offer an option for adapting to higher atmospheric CO2
(N2O) and indirect (NH3, NO3-) GHG emissions, to water concentrations and to climate change since their growth and
and air pollution and to relatively low soil organic carbon their relative abundance in mixtures is increased by
stocks (Soussana et al. 2004). Given the projected rise in elevated CO2 and at warm temperatures (Soussana and
fossil energy and fertilizer prices, such management Hartwig 1996; Teyssonneyre et al. 2002). The big
systems are likely to become increasingly costly. More- challenge for legume-based grassland-husbandry systems,
over, they may become inefficient under an increased however, will be to maintain the proportion of legume
climatic variability since applying fertilizers before drought (Luescher et al. 2012), which declined in the swards of the
spells and heavy precipitation would only add to the losses pan-European experiment in its third and last year (Finn et
to the environment. Strategic and tactical optimization of N al. 2013). This decline was, however, largely prevented in
(and P) fertilization will therefore be increasingly required more diverse grass-legume mixtures (with up to 8 species)
in grassland management to increase efficiency, mitigate (Suter et al. 2010). Ongoing experiments are testing at a
GHG emissions and adapt grass growth to a variable range of European sites the drought tolerance of grass-
climatic potential. In the same way, by avoiding the legume mixtures, since increased drought frequency could
frequent ploughing of sown grass leys (i.e. by increasing prevent the development of legume based grasslands.
the duration of the leys) a moderate degree of intensificat- Adapting the plant material and using plant functional
ion can be attained with benefits in terms of increased soil diversity. The selection of ecotypes that are adapted to
organic C stocks (Soussana et al. 2004). more extreme climatic conditions could be an option for
Pasture irrigation. Pasture irrigation is confined to a small maintaining future ecosystem functioning in temperate
number of regions worldwide, mostly in developed grasslands, as was indicated by the clear differences
countries with temperate and Mediterranean climate, where between ecotypes in a warming and extreme drought
water infrastructure are in place an pasture areas relatively experiment with temperate grass species (Beierkuhnlein et
accessible. Its future expansion will be challenged by the al. 2011). With sown forage grasses, Mediterranean
increased scarcity of water resources, by the competition populations were more resilient than temperate populations
with food crops and by the costs of the irrigation to soil water deficit (Poirier et al. 2012) and could therefore
equipment. Therefore, although irrigation is a prominent be used to breed better adapted plant material, despite being
option for climate change adaptation of agriculture, it is less productive in wet years than temperate origins. Grass-
unlikely that grassland irrigation can be developed on a legume mixtures will need to be adapted to the increased
large scale to meet the demands of forage by ruminant occurrence of droughts through targeted breeding programs
livestock. Moreover, irrigation is demanding in terms of also aiming at developing complementarity effects between
energy use and adds to the GHG emissions of livestock species. Other options include the use of summer dormancy
systems. Nevertheless, the planned development in some grasses (Volaire et al. 2009) and the breeding of deep-
countries of solar desalinization plants may open a potential rooted (e.g. tap roots) legumes and forbs and of
for increased irrigation of high quality forage production rhizomatous grasses, since those life forms tend to better
(e.g. for local milk production). resist drought. The increased drought tolerance conferred
Using sown grass-legume mixtures. Managing grasslands by endophytes to temperate grasses (such as tall fescue)

Proceedings of the 22nd International Grasslands Congress 2013 19

 Soussana et al.

could also be used, assuming that the negative impact of Therefore, increasing pasture productivity to
the endophyte on animal performance can be avoided. accumulate soil carbon may have to rely, in the short-term
However, under a strong warming scenario, it cannot at least, either on higher direct nitrogen fertilization of
be precluded that much larger changes in grassland systems grasslands or on larger adoption of crop-livestock integrat-
will be required in regions which are currently temperate ed systems. By using deep rooted C4 grass species (e.g.
and are dominated by perennial C3 grasses. For instance, Brachiaria) a relatively low sensitivity to seasonal droughts
shifting in moist areas to C4 forage grasses and shifting in has been achieved in a number of trials in Brazil and other
dry areas to annual legumes could be considered as options countries of Latin America. However, expanding
to explore by the end of the century. Preserving plant Brachiaria grasslands in savannah areas implies clearing
genetic resources will help keeping options open for the the trees and plowing up the soils and this has large carbon
future. Finally, preserving species diversity in grasslands costs and may reduce drastically plant species diversity.
also enhances resilience to disturbance risks and would pre- Ranching intensification would therefore need to focus on
serve the multifunctionality of grasslands in drought prone areas which have already lost their native vegetation.
areas (Maestre et al. 2012). Pasture restoration. The low fertility of tropical soils
In regions with intermittent drought conditions, coupled with low fertilizer application results in declining
perennial woody species typically have more robust and productivity of grasslands over-time, which, without
deep root systems that can keep producing forage when careful stocking rate adjustments, may also end up in
grass and forb species have stopped providing significant overgrazing. Therefore, large areas of grasslands are found
feed, thus providing a potential buffer against increased in some stage of degradation with consequent soil carbon
future climatic variability. Recent research has shown that losses. For instance, in Brazil, analysis of municipality
some of these woody perennials have anti-methanogenic aggregated data, shows that there is over 25 million ha of
properties (Durmic et al. 2010), thus potentially providing grasslands with stocking rates lower than 0.62 animal units
both adaptation and mitigation option if effectively per ha because of pasture degradation occurring within
integrated into grazing systems. Similarly, in high rainfall moderately intensive production systems. There is a large
grazing zones, high sugar content grasses with strong potential for annual C sequestration following cessation of
drought resistance and good digestibility might become overgrazing and implementation of moderate grazing
more important as climate changes further. intensities (Conant et al. 2002). Improving pasture and
grazing land productivity through pasture restoration is also
Tropical grasslands critical to reduce pressures on land and to provide increased
Pasture intensification. Mitigation practices in ruminant resilience to climatic extremes. There are a number of
systems are generally associated with productivity gains, options available, such as:
especially where productivity is currently low. At the • Supplementing grass (e.g. with conserved roughage,
animal level, improvements of feed digestibility, feed grains and oilseed meals) during the dry and cold
balancing and health conditions lead to greater yields and seasons in order to avoid overgrazing, restore pasture
reduced emissions, resulting in reduced emission intensity. productivity and increase meat and milk production,
At the herd level, emission reductions can be achieved by • Improving the animal breeds and investing in animal
increasing the relative importance of productive animal health (e.g. vaccination) in order to increase the feed
cohorts (milked and fattened animals) in the herd. Lastly, conversion efficiency and, hence, waste less forage;
adopting better grazing management practices to seques-
trateing carbon in soils often results in higher grass • Plant improved grasses and legumes, and fertilize them
production (FAO 2013). to produce larger and more digestible forages.
Tropical grasslands can substantially increase soil Enhancing pasture management, crop-livestock
carbon, even above natural vegetation levels and sown integration, supplemental feeding and improved health
mixtures with legumes seem to further improve soil carbon allow for changes in the actual to potential production ratio.
accumulation rates (Cerri et al. 2004; Neely et al. 2009). Increasing productivity would also generate increased
The substitution of native pasture species by African economic performance of the systems while avoiding the
species, particularly Brachiaria (Urocloa) spp., Panicum expansion of pastures into forested areas (Gouvello et al.
spp. and Cynodon, has happened similarly in other tropical 2011; Cohn et al. 2011; Strassburg et al. 2012).
countries of Latin America, Asia, Australia and in the Silvo-pastoral systems. Agroforestry arrangements that
Southern United States and is likely to increase soil carbon combine fodder plants, such as grasses and leguminous
storage (Fisher et al. 1994). Brachiaria and Cynodon herbs, with shrubs and trees used for animal nutrition and
species tolerate acid and low fertility soils of the tropics but other purposes such as fencing and sun protection for
their level of productivity is highly dependent on soil animals. They include scattered trees in pastureland, live
nitrogen content. For high pasture productivity, liming fences, tree based fodder banks and cut and carry systems.
(also a source of GHG emissions), P and K fertilizers are Restoration of extensive silvopastoral systems in African
required. In most of Africa and Latin America, tropical arid and semi-arid areas that have been subject to high
pastures receive low fertilizer inputs. Although the mortality of trees and shrubs as a consequence of droughts
literature point to cases of successful mixtures between C4 crisis mainly (Miehe et al. 2010; Diouf et al. 2005) is an
grasses and legumes (C3), high levels of adoption were not option to regenerate rangeland productivity once stoking
obtained in the commercial production systems, particular- density is well managed. In these systems, trees and shrubs
ly because of management and persistence issues. have been described to enhance carbon sequestration in

© 2013 Proceedings of the 22nd International Grassland Congress 20

 Managing grassland systems in a changing climate

soils through root systems and are also beneficial as bird intensified production practices may however be objective
habitat and shade providers (Akpo et al. 1995). Moreover, constraints to the adoption of practices that increase
they increase the quality of diet for ruminants with a productivity (Moran et al. 2010). Further research is
contribution up to 50 or 80% of DM intake for cattle and required to identify and develop new techniques, but also to
small ruminant respectively with protein content at least combine available techniques into packages that effectively
four times that of grasses in dry season (Guerin et al. 1988; and durably amplify their effect in specific production
Ickowicz and Mbaye 2002). systems and environments.
Intensive silvopastoral systems can be directly grazed The costing of adaptation measures is an under-
by livestock and include fodder shrubs (e.g. Leucaena sp.) researched area for grasslands and livestock. The benefit
and productive pasture species. Such systems can protect accruing to an adaptation cost is the value of the damage
biodiversity and can be combined at landscape scale with avoided which means a central damage scenario is needed
connectivity corridors and protected areas. Silvopastoral and, where uncertainty exists, a range, plus a monetary
systems that integrate eucalyptus, crop and pastures are valuation of the damages. The former challenge is
becoming more common in the Brazilian savannah and complicated by uncertainty both in terms of the impacts
have also been associated with increased soil fertility and of the responses of farmers and land managers. With
through the continuous supply of organic matter and better grassland systems, adaptation effectiveness is moreover
land management practices (e.g. avoiding erosion) (Vilela, confounded by the biophysical complexity of different
2001; Ribeiro et al. 2007; Tonucci et al. 2011). They farming systems.
provide a large carbon sequestration potential and are likely These constraints call for specific policies that can
to be more resilient to heat waves and to droughts, and to provide the right incentives for technology transfer and
provide shading to livestock. The area to produce 1 ton of emission reduction. Extension, research and development,
meat would move from 14.8 ha to 5.5 ha and 1.2 ha, financial incentives, prescriptive regulations, market instru-
respectively, in the dry region of Colombia for extensive ments and advocacy are all instruments that can be
pastures, improved pastures and intensive silvopastoral mobilized by governments and private sector organizations
systems, respectively (J Chara, Centre for Research on to foster innovation. Substantial additional research is
Sustainable Systems for Agricultural Production, Cali however needed to assess the costs and benefits of
Colombia, Pers com). However, many barriers still exist to mitigation and adaptation practices in greater detail, before
the adoption of silvopastoral practices. High initial costs, designing incentive frameworks. Policy instruments and
slow return on investment, and an overall unawareness of research programs are unlikely to be put in place in the
the benefits suggest that efforts need to be done by the absence of any international and cross-sectoral commit-
scientific community and stakeholders towards building ments to curve anthropogenic GHG emissions and of
capacity and financing. national strategies to implement such commitments.
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are
Socio-economics and policy dimensions of promising instruments to guide and support mitigation
mitigation and adaptation intervention in grassland systems. To date, only six
The balance and urgency to adapt or mitigate differs across countries have included livestock as part of their mitigation
different parts of the world. Understanding when and where strategy (Brazil, Chad, Jordan, Madagascar, Mongolia and
these actions can be made synergistic and how they can Swaziland), and Brazil only submitted a quantitative target;
support other policy objectives such as poverty alleviation, committing itself to an ambitious 83-104 Mt CO2-eq
food security or ecosystem goods and services is a major reduction through grassland restoration and conservation,
question. and 18-22 Mt CO2-eq from improved livestock manage-
Some livestock mitigation measures may be costly to ment, including efficiency, in 2020 1. A number of
implement relative to the costs of reducing equivalent additional countries are however now also engaging in this
volumes of emissions in other sectors of the economy - e.g. process. To be fully effective, and given the complexity of
in transportation, energy or industry (Smith et al. 2008). the livestock sector, the design and implementation of cost-
Economic mitigation potential tends to be defined using effective and equitable mitigation strategies and policies
marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) analysis. MACCs will benefit greatly from concerted action by all stakeholder
are useful tools for identifying the most cost-effective groups engaged in supply chains (including producers,
mitigation measures. On a global scale, improved grassland industry associations, academia, the public sector and
management and reduced conversion of pastureland were intergovernmental organizations).
estimated to have a significant mitigation potential (ca. 3 Concluding remarks
GtCO2e per year by 2030) at a very low cost (McKinsey
2010). In UK, manure management is a prominent Research on the interactions between climate change and
mitigation option which would have a negative cost (Moran grasslands has been rapidly expanding in recent years, but
et al. 2010). In France, grassland management would much remains to be done in order to improve our ability to
provide mitigation at a negative cost (Pellerin et al. 2013). project future changes and to offer practical solutions. The
The link between productivity gains and emission intensity metrics of adaptation and mitigation needs to be agreed
reductions explains why marginal abatement cost analyses
have often found a negative cost associated with mitigation 1
practices (McKinsey 2010). Upfront investment costs, http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/applicatio
access to knowledge and higher risks associated with n/pdf/brazilcphaccord_app2.pdf; http://www.brasil.gov.br/copenglish/
overview/what-brazil-is-doing/domestic-goals/print

Proceedings of the 22nd International Grasslands Congress 2013 21

 Soussana et al.

internationally and its compatibility with food security Bell MJ, Eckard RJ, Cullen BR (2012). The effect of future
assessed, as incentive frameworks will require a firm basis climate scenarios on the balance between productivity and
for the calculation of the costs and benefits of mitigation greenhouse gas emissions from sheep grazing systems.
and adaptation practices. While we now benefit from a Livestock Science 147,126-138.
Ben Ari T, Soussana J-F, et al. (in preparation). A global analysis
large number of local observations, we still lack long-term of food demand, agricultural supply and greenhouse gas
experiments testing grassland mitigation options and their emissions over 1961-2050. (in preparation for PNAS).
impacts on GHG emissions and removals and free-air Boudet G (1984) Manuel sur les pâturages tropicaux et les
grassland manipulation experiments combining warming cultures fourragères, Manuel et précis d'élevage N°4, éditions
and altered precipitations. Such data are essential to du Ministère de la Coopération, IEMVT, 266 pages
improve models and their ability to simulate a range of Bourdot GW, Lamoureaux SL, Watt MS, et al. (2012) The
adaptation and mitigation options. Increased international potential global distribution of the invasive weed Nassella
collaboration in this area is a priority to foster science and neesiana under current and future climates. Biological
innovation. Invasions 14, 1545-1556
Brown PR, Nelson R, Jacobs B, Kokic P, Traccey J, Ahmed M,
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assess their adaptive capacity. Agricultural Systems 103
This research was supported financially by the AnimalChange (2010), 562–568
project (Grant agreement number: FP7- 266018) Calvet JC, Soussana J-F (2001) Modelling CO2- enrichment
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