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Product Maturity 1
Reliability of Multiphysical Systems Set
coordinated by
Abdelkhalak El Hami
Volume 12
Product Maturity 1
Theoretical Principles and

Industrial Applications
Franck Bayle
First published 2022 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted
under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or
transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the
case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the
CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the
undermentioned address:
ISTE Ltd John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

27-37 St George’s Road 111 River Street
London SW19 4EU Hoboken, NJ 07030
UK USA
www.iste.co.uk www.wiley.com
© ISTE Ltd 2022

The rights of Franck Bayle to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in
accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the
author(s), contributor(s) or editor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ISTE Group.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2021949035
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 978-1-78630-739-2
Contents
Foreword by Laurent Denis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Foreword by Serge Zaninotti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
Chapter 1. Reliability Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1. Failure rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2. Temperature effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3. Effect of maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4. MTBF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.5. Nature of the reliability objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Chapter 2. Maturity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Serge ZANINOTTI
2.1. Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2. Normative context and its implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.1. Quality standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.2. Quality management system and product quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2.3. Product quality and dependability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2.4. Product dependability and maturity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.2.5. Standards in various domains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.2.6. Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.3. Building of maturity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.4. Confirmation of maturity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
vi Product Maturity 1
Chapter 3. Derating Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.1. Derating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2. Rules provided by the manufacturers of components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.2.1. CMS resistors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.2.2. Capacitors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.2.3. Magnetic circuits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.2.4. Fuses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.2.5. Resonators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.2.6. Oscillators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.2.7. Photocouplers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.2.8. Diodes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.2.9. Zener diodes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.2.10. Tranzorb diodes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.2.11. Low power bipolar transistors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.2.12. Power bipolar transistors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.2.13. Low power MOSFET transistors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.2.14. High power MOSFET transistors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.2.15. Integrated circuits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.3. Reference-based approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.4. Creation of derating rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.4.1. Rules for constant temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.4.2. Rule for voltage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.5. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Chapter 4. Components with Limited Service Life. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
4.1. RDF 2000 guide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

4.1.1. Power transistor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
4.1.2. Photocouplers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.1.3. Switch or push button . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.1.4. Connectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.2. FIDES 2009 guide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.2.1. Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
4.2.2. Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
4.3. Manufacturer’s data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.3.1. Wet electrolytic capacitor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.3.2. Connectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4.3.3. Relays . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
4.3.4. Optocouplers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4.3.5. Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4.3.6. Fans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4.3.7. Flash memories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Contents vii
4.3.8. Potentiometers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
4.3.9. Quartz oscillators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.3.10. Voltage references . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.4. Summary of components with limited service life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Chapter 5. Analysis of Product Performances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
5.1. Analyses during the design stage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

5.1.1. Worst-case analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
5.1.2. Quadratic analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
5.1.3. Monte-Carlo analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
5.1.4. Numerical simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
5.2. Analyses during the manufacturing stage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Chapter 6. Aggravated Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
6.1. Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
6.2. Objectives of aggravated tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
6.3. Principles of aggravated tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
6.3.1. Choice of physical constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.3.2. Principle of HALT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
6.3.3. Specific or additional constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
6.3.4. Number of required samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
6.3.5. Operational test, diagnosis and identification of weaknesses . . . . . . . . 107
6.3.6. Monitoring specification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
6.3.7. Instrumentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
6.3.8. Root cause analysis, corrective actions and breakdown management . . . 108
6.4. Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
6.4.1. Estimation of robustness margins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
6.4.2. Sufficient margins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Chapter 7. Burn-In Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
7.1. Link between HALT and HASS tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

7.2. POS1 test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
7.2.1. Miner’s approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
7.2.2. Approach according to the physical laws of failure . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
7.2.3. Zero-failure reliability proof approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
7.3. POS2 test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.3.1. Influence of parameter Q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
7.3.2. Influence of parameter p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
7.3.3. Summary of the POS2 test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.4. HASS cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.4.1. Precipitation stage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
viii Product Maturity 1
7.4.2. Detection stage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

7.5. Should burn-in tests be systematically conducted? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
7.5.1. Constraints extrinsic to the equipment manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
7.5.2. Constraints intrinsic to the equipment manufacturer . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
7.5.3. Decision criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
7.6. Test coverage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
7.7. Economic aspect of burn-in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
7.7.1. No burn-in test is conducted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
7.7.2. Burn-in test is conducted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Chapter 8. Run-In . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
8.1. Run-in principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

8.2. Stabilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
8.2.1. Proposed principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
8.2.2. Drift acceleration law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
8.2.3. Choice of the drift model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
8.2.4. Equivalent level of physical contribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
8.3. Expression of the corresponding degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
8.4. Optimization of the stabilization time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
8.5. Estimation of a prediction interval of the degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
8.5.1. Principle of the stabilization method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
List of Notations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
List of Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
List of Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Foreword by Laurent Denis
Human beings are plagued by major worries, such as fear of death and fear of
illness. “How long will I live?” is a question that arises even in childhood. “Will I
one day have to deal with a condition similar to my neighbor’s?”. We live in an age
where disease, death, old age and disability are subjects to be avoided in polite
conversation. “How are you?” is a standard greeting to which a different and darker
reply than the traditional, “I’m very well, thank you, and you?” risks embarrassing
or even annoying the other party. Avoiding the problems of others, for fear they may
be contagious, gives us a sense of immortality on a daily basis.
This is a rather recent phenomenon, as many previous generations did not hide
the elderly or sick, although the risk of accidents in everyday life was higher and so
death was a more common occurrence. It was certainly a source of anxiety, but the
Church was there to alleviate it. Today we hide this subject by paying attention to a
society made up of young, healthy people whom we must emulate at all costs so as
to be part of it. Since our days are more or less the same, we succumb to
procrastination at the first opportunity and Seneca’s carpe diem loses its wonderful
charm to give way to flat Platonic reflection.
Surprisingly, a similar problem exists in industry: there is a willingness to forget

that a product may be subject to failure during its lifetime, given it has been
optimally designed for the required functions. Some simple principles of upstream
reliability analysis, from the design phase onwards, are now well-established, but
they thwart the deep-seated notion that proper design outweighs everything else.
Two essential points are overlooked: when a technology naturally reaches maturity,
only a technological breakthrough can mark a distinction between two products
performing the same function, unless it can be demonstrated that product A will last
longer and be safer than product B. Moreover, the uses of the same product can
multiply according to its ability to adapt to multiple environments. A good
understanding of these uses in the field makes it possible to improve robustness
x Product Maturity 1
properly at the design stage, in order that it can withstand any mission profile
assigned to it during operation; this is one way to increase competitiveness.
Many companies still see the reliability study of a system before it becomes
operational as a mandatory step to be overcome, bypassing or minimizing it as soon
as possible. In the design phase, a signed product FMECA will end up in a folder, its
purpose merely to certify that the rules have been followed correctly. The objective
of the test phase is to confirm that the device being tested meets the requirements of
a standard, without taking the opportunity to validate that the mission profiles on the
ground will not unpredictably damage the product. During production, process
control cards are used to verify that tolerance limits are not exceeded, without
establishing forecasting instances that could lead to accidental stops. Hence, only
data in the form of returned products, found to be defective by the end user, are
subjected to a posteriori analyses by customer support. This can incur various costs
and may lead to product recall if a serious defect is found.
Fortunately, however, the reality tends to be a little less bleak than the situation
described above, with the emergence and dissemination of best practices that are
based on theories validated by various industry sectors. These are now adapting to
the challenges that companies face: making increasingly complex products that are
more adaptable and ever-faster, while maintaining quality standards and reducing
costs. This no longer involves applying deterministic models in which a single value
is assigned to an objective to be reached. Instead, it is about drawing up a range of
possible solutions that allow the supplier or integrator to make sure that the worst
case a product might be subjected to on the ground can still be controlled by
statistical modeling. The best way to achieve this is through the combined use of
theoretical and technical resources: an in-depth understanding of the possible
technological problems and solutions given by the manufacturer allows the qualified
reliability engineer to build the most suitable predictive models. Ideally, a single
person would have these two complementary sets of skills.
Franck Bayle is a perfect example of this. Throughout the second part of his
career as an electronics engineer, he relentlessly addressed challenges that no one
had previously openly solved, and he developed algorithmic solutions based on
cutting edge theories. He was nevertheless confronted with the ills that plague most
large groups: habit and fear of change. When he proposed significant advances
across the whole company, only his more informed colleagues considered these to
be opportunities for improvement. Sometimes his work was considered useless by
those whose feeling was: “Why consider risks when there are no problems on the
ground?”. This is reminiscent of: “Why would I get sick when I am fit and
healthy?”. We have to be forward thinkers to be able to act before any problem
arises, and Franck Bayle is such a person. His book presents all the best practices he
Foreword by Laurent Denis xi
has managed to implement within his department, as well as all the advances that
I have had the chance to see implemented, which he continues to improve.
This book is essential reading for any passionate reliability engineer, and it is a
real pleasure and an honor to write this foreword to accompany it.
Laurent DENIS
STATXPERT
November 2021
Foreword by Serge Zaninotti
When Franck invited me to work with him on his second book on system
maturity, I immediately accepted. My interest in the subject has grown largely as a
result of the rich technical exchanges we have had over the last 15 years, and
strengthened after reading his first book, published in 2019, on the reliability of
maintained systems under aging mechanisms.
Franck would tell me of his progress in the field of reliability, his field of
expertise, and I – having always wanted to maintain the link between quality and
reliability – would try to establish a connection with the standards.
Indeed, thanks to those who trained me as a quality engineer, I have always

known that quality assurance should never be dissociated from dependability.
I therefore felt instantly motivated by the opportunity to contribute to disseminating
the acquired knowledge by means of a book. The subject system maturity can be
mastered both through experience and through training.
It is often the failures or non-quality observed during the development or

operation of a system that indicate to us that our patterns of thinking lack dimension.
However, in order to find an appropriate response to prevent these unexpected

and feared events, and to be able to control them in the best way possible when they
do occur, it is important to master quality risk management techniques. Risk
management begins with risk prevention, the focus of this book.
In order to understand the problem of system maturity as a whole, before

addressing the actual techniques used, it is necessary to put it in context. This
context is provided by the quality standards for the systems.
xiv Product Maturity 1
Having trained as a general engineer within the Department of Energy and

Environmental Engineering (GEn) at INSA Lyon, I then gained experience as a
quality specialist, and have been a dependability supervisor since 1989. Franck
therefore asked me to present the standards environment and the links that tie it to
maturity, which the reader will find in Chapter 2 of this book.
Serge ZANINOTTI
Thales
Quality Expert
November 2021
Acknowledgements
This book would certainly not have been possible without the contribution of
certain persons. I therefore want to thank, first, my main supervisors throughout my
career with Thales: Jean Riaillon, Laurent Portrait and Claude Sarno, who gave me
the means to gain this experience.
For everything related to maturity, a special thank you goes to Serge Zaninotti,
quality expert with Thales, and also the author of Chapter 2 on the notion of
maturity and the “quality” aspects, and Serge Parbaud of Thales for his advice and
always appropriate corrections. I would also want to extend my warmest thanks to
Patrick Carton from Thales Global Service for the passionate technical exchanges
we have had in recent years, his always apt remarks, his support and his listening.
Furthermore, I wish to thank Franck Davenel from DGA for our exchanges
during PISTIS upstream study related to accelerated tests and burn-in, and to give
my warmest thanks to Léo Gerville Réache for his valuable help.
Finally, I wish to thank my entire family, and particularly my wife, not only for
bearing with me, but also for encouraging me while writing this book.
Introduction
Reliability, availability, safety and so on are now major qualities that a product
must have, irrespective of the industrial application field (automobile, avionics, rail,
etc.) of its use. A significant literature related to these fields can be readily accessed,
and is generally grouped under the umbrella concept of “dependability”.
During the whole lifecycle of a product, from specification to operation by the

end user, a large number of actions are implemented in order for it to meet the
specified requirements. Reliability is the quantitative basis for dependability
activities, as poor reliability can lead to insufficient availability, for example,
although it should be reached as soon as the products are in service.
The maturity of a product is therefore its capacity to reach the desired reliability
level, from its launch into service until the end of its operation. Due to technical and
economic challenges, it is very difficult to reach product maturity. Indeed, defects
are very often generated during various phases of the lifecycle, reflected by failures
that occur very early on in product operation (a manufacturing defect, for example),
or during its operation (design flaw, integration flaw, etc.). This is particularly true
for products whose service life is becoming longer (e.g. 30 years for components in
the rail industry). It is important to note that this activity makes sense for maintained
products, which are predominantly in industrial applications.
There is abundant information on maturity, but this applies mostly to process

implementation within a company, and it is therefore often at the project
management level. Detailed literature describing the main theories (worst-case
analysis, derating analysis, etc.) and practical techniques (accelerated tests, burn-in,
etc.) for building product maturity is actually scarce, and many manufacturers often
use obsolete standards, which, at best, they modify according to their experience.
xviii Product Maturity 1
The main objective of this book is to fill this knowledge gap, which is often
detrimental to many manufacturers.
1
Reliability Review
In this book, maturity is defined as the ability of a product to achieve the

expected level of reliability from the moment it becomes operational for the end
user. A review of what reliability means and a definition of the parameters on which
it is based is therefore needed.
1.1. Failure rate
Reliability studies the occurrence of failures in time. These instances of failure

are random; hence, they cannot be known in advance. This presents a challenge. To
model them, we use the concept of random variable, which will be denoted by T
throughout this book.
First, it is important to determine the various types of failures. There are three
main categories, namely:
– “youth failures”, which generally occur very early on in the lifecycle of a
product. Youth failures are generally the result of manufacturing defects. Therefore,
they concern only a small part of the population. They can be partially eradicated by
specific tests, such as burn-in;
– “catastrophic failures”, which are unexpected, sudden and independent of the
time previously elapsed. These types of failures can therefore be observed at any
point in the lifecycle of a product. They are generally the result of accidental
overloads (heat, mechanical, electrical). They typically do not concern the entire
product population and can be reduced by robustness tests, derating rules, etc.;
– “aging” failures, which are observed across all the products in operation. These
failures are generally not observed during the lifecycle of a product, with the
Product Maturity 1: Theoretical Principles and Industrial Applications,

First Edition. Franck Bayle.
© ISTE Ltd 2022. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2 Product Maturity 1
exception of specific components with a “limited service life” or premature aging, as

a result of poor sizing, a batch of defective components, etc. They affect the entire
population and therefore must be absolutely pushed beyond the duration of use of
the product. Consequently, design rules (derating rules, worst-case analysis, thermal,
mechanical, electrical simulation, etc.), and specific aging tests can be implemented.
We begin by addressing intrinsic reliability. Intrinsic reliability refers to the

reliability of a component, a card or a product in the absence of any maintenance. In
order to estimate this, and in particular to know the type of failure involved, the
most widely used parameter is the (instantaneous) failure rate denoted by λ, which is
defined by:
/
= lim → [1.1]
Let us briefly analyze this equation and the following conventions. The term P
denotes the “probability” and the symbol “/” stands for “knowing that”. The limit
“lim” represents the instantaneous character of the failure rate. Therefore, equation
[1.1] can be interpreted as follows:
Probability that the product will fail between “t and t+dt” knowing that it was
operational (non-defective) at instant “t”.
To facilitate understanding of the concept of failure rate, the analogy with a

human being can be used (Gaudoin and Ledoux 2007). Let us try to estimate the
probability that a human being dies between 100 and 101 years of age. This
probability is low since the majority of human beings die before they reach
100 years old. Furthermore, let us estimate the probability that a human being dies
between 100 and 101 years of age, knowing that they were alive at 100 years old.
This probability is high, as human beings do not live long after reaching 100 years
of age.
The three failure categories can thus be symbolically represented using the concept
of failure rate using the famous bathtub curve, as illustrated in the following figure.
Figure 1.1. Bathtub curve example

Reliability Review 3
The most commonly used mathematical object for modeling failure rate is the
Weibull distribution. According to this hypothesis, the latter is defined by:
ℎ = . [1.2]
where η is a scale factor (generally time-dependent) and represents typical service

life, characterized by the fact that the failure rate is ~ 63.2% (1 – exp(-1)),
irrespective of the value taken by the parameter β and therefore of the type of
failure.
This modeling is interesting for the following three reasons:

– the mathematical formulation is simple, as it involves a versatile power
function (differentiable, integrable, etc.);
– depending on the parameter β, this function is decreasing (β < 1), constant
(β = 1) or increasing (β > 1). In other terms, it can represent the three types of
previously defined failures;
– the parameter β has a physical significance as it represents the aging dynamics
of the observed failure mechanism. Indeed, as already noted, failure instants are
characterized by randomness (components tested are assumed to be identical). This
means that instead of having a single real value, if failures were purely
deterministic, we see a constant dispersion of failure instants. In fact, the parameter
β is the image of this dispersion, and the greater it is, the less dispersed the instants
of failure are. Ultimately, if β was infinite, all the failure instants would be identical,
which is obviously never the case in practice.
Figure 1.2. Fall leaves illustrating aging. For a color version

of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/bayle/maturity1.zip
This figure clearly shows that all of the components – in this case, the leaves –
are subject to aging, yet not all of them fail at the same time (not all the leaves have
fallen at the instant shown).
As an illustration, let us assume a Weibull distribution whose scale factor is

η = 1,000 (this value is a purely conventional value and could be quite different
without changing the conclusions obtained). Furthermore, let us assume that there
are 30 components in a test and failure instants are generated for each of them in a
purely virtual manner for two values of β (3 and 10).
The following figures are obtained, with time on the ordinate (horizontal) axis
and the number of components on the abscissa (vertical) axis.
Figure 1.3. Failure instants for β = 3 and β = 10
It can be noted that failure instants are more dispersed for β = 3 (on the left) than
for β = 10 (on the right). On the other hand, for β = 1, equation [1.2] is written as:
= or, more frequently, as:
=λ [1.3]
This represents the exponential distribution law modeling catastrophic failures.

The failure rate for this category of failures is constant, which means that failure
instants do not depend on the elapsed time. This specificity of the exponential law is
known as the “memoryless property” (it is the only continuous law with this
property). Indeed, returning to the analogy with human beings, a catastrophic failure
is, for example, a car accident occurring when a driver cuts off another driver. This
“failure” does not depend on the distance traveled, but is due solely to the
recklessness of another person. This is entirely different from an aging failure, for
which the failure instant directly depends on the distance traveled, because this
relates to driver fatigue.
It is important to note that the concept of maturity has no qualitative meaning for
non-maintained products. Indeed, the objective of reliability is a probability of
success; the mission is achieved by the survival function, which for a Weibull
distribution is defined as:
= exp − [1.4]
This survival function – and this is the case regardless of the law used – is a
strictly decreasing function of time. Therefore, the concept of constant reliability is
not applicable. For most non-maintained industrial applications, exponential
distribution is preferred to Weibull distribution; this is because the reliability
objective is a probability of achieving the mission, whose value is obviously high
(generally such that R ∈[90% ; 99%].
In this case, we can return to an exponential distribution because, for these

values of the survival function, it is conservative, with respect to a Weibull
distribution, whose shape parameter is greater than 1. Indeed, from a mathematical
perspective, the ratio of the two survival functions can be calculated as follows:
ζ= [1.5]
with β > 1 and Tm = mission duration.
To obtain a sufficiently high probability of success in the mission (survival

function) requires Tm/η << 1. Consequently, β being greater than 1, ≪ 1.
Using an expansion up to the first order of the exponential function leads to:
ζ≃ [1.6]
Since Tm/η is greater than , the numerator is smaller than the denominator
and therefore ζ < 1. Hence, the exponential survival function is lower than that of
Weibull, which proves that it is conservative.
Another, more physical way to view this result is to remember that the shape
parameter β represents the dispersion of time until failure. The greater β is, the less
dispersed the time until failure. Since the Weibull shape parameter is > 1, the
corresponding failure instants are less dispersed around the scale parameter η.
Consequently, failures following an exponential distribution with an identical

scale parameter occur earlier than those following the Weibull distribution.
Therefore, the survival function of the exponential distribution at any instant “t” is
weaker than that of the Weibull distribution, which proves the conservative
character of this approach.
1.2. Temperature effect
Temperature is systematically involved in component failure mechanisms. The

Arrhenius law is generally used in order to model its effect on the reliability of
components. Based on an empirical research method, that is, studied through a
number of experiments, the Arrhenius law is used to model the variation in the
speed of certain chemical reactions under the influence of temperature. With respect
to the previously described Weibull law, the following formulation is obtained:
, = . [1.7]
with η θ = C. exp
.
Ea is the activation energy.
Kb is the Boltzmann constant.
1.3. Effect of maintenance
In most industrial applications, the focus is on the reliability observed on the

ground, which must take into account the maintenance actions carried out.
Maintenance can take several forms, depending on the level at which it is being
performed (components, products, etc.). At the component level, maintenance is
generally referred to as “perfect”, also known as “corrective maintenance”, since

defective components are replaced with new ones.
At the product level, maintenance may be referred to as “preventive”. This is the

case with cars, for example, where engine oil, various filters, etc., are changed on a
regular basis without any failures having been observed. More generally, there is
“minimal” maintenance at the product level, as replacing the defective component
effectively restores the reliability of the product to the level it had before the failure.
Therefore, maintenance has an important effect on product reliability, as

illustrated by the following figure.
Figure 1.4. Example of a car that has not been maintained. For a color
version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/bayle/maturity1.zip
For further details on the effect of maintenance on reliability and its (rather
difficult) modeling, the reader is invited to refer to Rigdon and Basu (2000),
Gaudoin and Ledoux (2007) and Bayle (2019).
1.4. MTBF
For most industrial applications, the objective of reliability is MTBF. There is

much confusion surrounding this acronym; indeed, MTBF may signify:
– Mean time before failures:
In this case, failure instants were observed on “n” components (or products)
assumed to be identical. This is equivalent to MTTF (Mean Time To Failure), as
there are no maintenance actions. This can be illustrated by Figure 1.5.
– Mean time between failures:
This refers to the mean time between two consecutive failures. If there are two
failures, this means there was a maintenance action, as illustrated in the following
figure.
Figure 1.5. MTBF (mean time between failures)
Figure 1.6. MTBF (mean time between failures). For a color

When there are maintenance actions, the concept of failure rate has no meaning
after the first failure. Hence, time between failures (TBF) and time to repair (TTR)
are used. MTBF is therefore defined here by:
= MTTF MTTR [1.8]
NOTE.– In practice, the TTR is often very short compared to the TBF; thus, the
numerical expression of equation [1.8] can be written as:
≈ MTTF [1.9]
Moreover, if the product is mature (no youth or aging failure), then MTTF = .
According to these hypotheses, equation [1.8] can be written as:
≈ . [1.10]
This equation is often found in the literature but is only numerically true under
certain hypotheses (exponential distribution), which must be verified.
1.5. Nature of the reliability objective
Product specifications always include a reliability objective. There are two main
industrial applications:
– The first is less common, requiring a probability of success. This probability,
which is a function of the product use time, is therefore generally provided after the
product becomes operational. The unilateral lower bound of this probability is
generally used as the reliability objective. This is due to the fact that it applies to one
or several products for which operational failure is to be excluded (e.g. Ariane
rockets or certain military weapons).
– The second covers all other applications (avionics, motor vehicles, rail, etc.)
where the mean number of failures is examined. This is the well-known MTBF.
2
Maturity
2.1. Context
Any product goes through a number of industrial phases throughout its lifetime;
this is known as the product lifecycle. Chronologically, these phases can be listed as
follows:
– product specification, conducted by the system manufacturer or the end user;
– product design, conducted by the equipment manufacturer;
– product manufacturing, conducted by the equipment manufacturer;
– product integration, conducted by the system manufacturer;
– product operation, conducted by the end user.
These various stages are illustrated in Figure 2.1 below.
Figure 2.1. Phases of the product lifecycle. For a color

Chapter written by Serge ZANINOTTI.
Product Maturity 1: Theoretical Principles and Industrial Applications,

First Edition. Franck Bayle.
© ISTE Ltd 2022. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
All of these stages have the potential to produce defects that are often specific to
each of them. These defects will potentially generate failures during the operational
life of the product with the end user.
The specification stage runs the risk of generating:

– youth failures, as a result of failures that occur early on in the product lifecycle
because a specification has been poorly met, understood or interpreted;
– premature aging failures, for example, as a result of a performance
specification that is much lower than necessary for the product;
– catastrophic failures due to the lack of specifications on the operational
constraints that the product will be subjected to.
The design stage runs the risk of generating:

– youth failures due to poor design of a given product function;
– premature aging failures because, for example, a component is under too high
“stress” with respect to the performances guaranteed by the manufacturer;
– catastrophic failures due to the lack of margins on certain operational
constraints.
The manufacturing stage runs the risk of generating:

– youth failures due to poor manufacturing of the product (poor welding,
component errors, etc.);
– premature aging failures due to a component undergoing too much “stress”
during product manufacturing or testing.
Finally, the integration stage runs the risk of generating catastrophic failures due
to product handling errors when undergoing stress (ESD, for example), etc. All of
these potential defects will affect the operational reliability of the product, having a
direct impact on its maturity. But they also impact the brand image of the equipment
manufacturer as perceived by the system manufacturer or the end user. They can
also generate significant costs for the equipment manufacturer.
Therefore, in order to counteract these harmful effects on maturity, a certain

number of analyses and tests can be implemented in order to minimize their number
and therefore their impact (unfortunately, zero defect does not exist). This book
relates exclusively to the level of the equipment manufacturer. Maturity can then be
broken down into two large activities as depicted in Figure 2.2.
Maturity 13
Building of Maturity Confirmation of Maturity
Design and manufacturing Integration Operation
Equipment System User

manufacturer manufacturer
Figure 2.2. Stages of maturity. For a color version

of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/bayle/maturity1.zip
2.2. Normative context and its implications
2.2.1. Quality standards
Standards reflect the willingness of nations and individuals to exchange products

or services. This trade has always required the parties’ mutual trust. The legal
system containing the hierarchy of standards and the quality bearing the
documentary pyramid contributed to consolidating this trust over time.
This led to the creation of the world’s largest standardization system in 1947,
known as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). Nowadays, to
ensure their continued existence, organizations must have a certified quality
management system.
ISO 9001 (ISO 2015), an international standard with worldwide coverage for
several decades, sets out the criteria related to the processes that are part of the
quality management systems. Having products or services offering, since the very
start of operation, the ability expected by the clients is part of the objectives set
through the project management process. Making sure that the project management
process reaches its objectives throughout the lifecycle of the products or service is at
the core of quality assurance management.
2.2.2. Quality management system and product quality
The introduction of a risk-based approach in ISO 9001:2015 [2] changed the

way in which quality and quality assurance are managed within projects. The
organizations must better understand their context and base their planning on risk
determination, which requires a performance orientation of the criteria of this new

version.
ISO 31000 (ISO 2018) defines the guidelines of risk management and states that
it improves performance in reaching objectives. The PR-NF-EN 31010 (ISO 2018)
standard supports this standard by providing recommendations concerning risk
management and various techniques for taking uncertainty into account. Moreover,
the ISO 9000 (ISO 2015) standard related to quality management systems, essential
principles and terminology, defines the concepts used.
It provides clear definitions of objective, project, result, resource, risk,

performance, efficiency, effectiveness and indicator. Consequently, the themes
involved in project-based product quality management can be schematically
represented by the Gilbert model.
Results
Efficiency Effectiveness
Performance
Resources Relevance (success) objectives
Figure 2.3. Gilbert model
The project objective concerns the expected product quality and meeting the cost
and deadlines.
The project result concerns product quality performance, costs and deadlines.
Performance corresponds to the measurable result. Effectiveness is defined as

achieving the planned activities and obtaining the planned results. Efficiency is the
ratio between the achieved result and the resources used.
Success relates to a balance between economic or financial interests (resources)

and the needs of the stakeholders. Risks are the effects of uncertainties. Here, the
Maturity 15
uncertainties are the causes that are susceptible to gaps with respect to the expected
results.
Risk management therefore involves avoiding:

– gaps between objectives and results, affecting the project effectiveness;
– exceeding resources, affecting project efficiency.
The Ishikawa method with the “5 whys” technique is used to identify causes
based on the adverse effects of a risk. The FMECA method (failure modes, effects
and criticality analysis) can be used to deduce, based on the identification of risk
causes, the consequences for the products in order to achieve the required
improvement.
Figure 2.4. Ishikawa method. For a color version of

this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/bayle/maturity1.zip
Successful risk management involves reaching the objectives within the

allocated resources upon project completion. In this case, project performance is
successful in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. It contributes to innovation by
creating and preserving value. Project progress is evaluated by taking into account
the identified risk factors.
The main quality objective assigned to projects is the supply of compliant

products. Compliance addresses the concept of effectiveness: the product (result)
must meet the client requirements (objective). Therefore, the product quality risk is
essentially related to effectiveness. Indicators are used to determine, measure and
control project performances. This explains the importance of their choice for
product quality management.
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CHAPTER XIV
The Parting of the Ways
T he two girls reached the farmhouse in a shorter time than they

had believed possible and at once rushed upstairs to their
rooms. There they dragged out their suit-cases, and Mildred’s and
Eugenia’s as well, and began packing them with the clothes they felt
to be absolutely necessary for their work.
They knew the wounded must first be removed from the field
hospital, with only the nurse and doctors who would have charge of
them. But there would also be other motor cars to transport the
additional nurses, physicians and hospital assistants. Moreover, since
all the tents and the supplies must afterwards be gotten away this
would surely require a fair amount of time. So in case they were late
and missed the first of the departing cars, they would certainly be
stored away in one of the later ones.
“I do wish we had asked Eugenia and Mildred to wait until we
returned to the hospital before they leave,” Barbara called from
beneath the bed in Mildred’s room, where she was dragging out a
pair of shoes.
“It wouldn’t have made any difference if we had asked,” Nona
answered. “Mildred is to go in one of the first motor ambulances
with the wounded, as she has charge of two critically ill soldiers. And
of course Eugenia will do whatever she thinks wisest. Certainly she
won’t wait for us if she thinks it best to go first.”
“I am not so sure of that,” Barbara replied, and then there was a
silence lasting for several moments.
Afterwards Barbara and Nona wondered why they were not more
frightened during this half hour. The fact is that they had not yet
appreciated the seriousness of the French retreat, nor the great task
of moving the field hospital beyond the present danger line.
Moreover, they were too busy to think clearly on any subject, and a
time of action is seldom a time of fear.
Except for the two girls moving hastily about, the little farmhouse
was delightfully quiet and peaceful after the dreadful morning at the
hospital. Once the thought flashed through Barbara Meade’s mind:
“If only they might stay here in the little ‘House with the Blue Front
Door’ and take their chances with the enemy!” They would be under
the protection of the Red Cross. However, as they had received their
orders from an authority higher than Eugenia’s, like soldiers they
must do as they were commanded, without considering their
personal inclinations.
So Barbara, having finished Mildred’s packing, took her suit-case
downstairs by the front door. She then went up for Eugenia’s, which
Nona had by this time completed. It was heavier than the other and
she staggered a little and had to stop to recover her breath after she
had placed it alongside Mildred’s.
Therefore, she chanced to be standing just beside the front door
when the first knocking on the outside began. Nona had drawn a
great, old-fashioned bolt across the door after entering, chiefly with
the idea that they should not be disturbed at their tasks.
Barbara did not open the door at once.
This knocking was not of an ordinary kind, such as one would expect
from a visitor. It was very insistent, never stopping for a second; it
was indeed, a kind of hurried tattoo.
“Who is there?” Barbara demanded. But before any one else could
reply Nona called from upstairs.
“Please don’t open the door, Barbara, at least not until we are about
to start. There isn’t an instant to waste in talking to any one.”
In consequence Barbara turned away, but immediately after she
recognized the voice of old François.
“Open, open!” he shouted, first in French and then in English, having
acquired a few words from his four American girl friends.
Then Barbara drew back the latch and François tumbled in.
The old fellow’s brown face was ashen and the pupils of his little
black eyes were dilated with fear.
He had evidently been running until he was almost out of breath.
“The French are retreating, all our army at once: They are tramping,
tramping through the fields and the woods. Madame the Countess
says you are to come to the chateau immediately. Soon the Germans
will be here and then——”
The old French peasant flung out his withered hands and rolled his
eyes upward. Words failed to express his pent-up emotions.
But Barbara shook her head quietly.
“You are very kind, François. Tell the Countess Amélie we are most
grateful for her thought of us. But we are going to the rear with the
field hospital staff and in any case we should be safe as Red Cross
nurses. Go back to her now, for she needs you more than we do.
This must be a terrible experience for her.”
Old François straightened his crooked back against the front door,
which he had most carefully closed after entering.
“But you must come and at once, Mademoiselle. For the Countess is
ill, perhaps dying from the shock of the news we have just received,”
he insisted. “Her son’s, Captain Henri’s, regiment has been
destroyed. Some of the men have been taken prisoners, the others
killed or wounded. And we have had no word from our young
captain since the fighting began.”
The old servant’s face worked with emotion and his eyes filled with
tears.
“Oh, I am so sorry,” Barbara murmured pitifully, and then realizing
the inadequacy of words at such a time, turned to Nona, who had at
this instant come downstairs, carrying her own and Barbara’s bags.
“What shall we do, Nona?” Barbara demanded. “We should have
started back to the field hospital before this. And yet if we go now
and leave the Countess ill with no one to look after her, it seems too
cruel! Suppose I go with François and you return to the hospital and
explain what has delayed me. Tell Eugenia where I am. Somehow I
feel that perhaps the Countess Amélie needs my care more than the
soldiers do today. There are so many other nurses to look after
them, while she is old and alone.”
Nona’s dark eyes looked troubled, nevertheless she shook her head.
“I don’t agree with you, Barbara. We ought to be at our posts. We
have promised our services to the soldiers; besides, I could not let
you go alone to the Countess. Don’t you know that when the
German soldiers overrun this countryside the chateau will be one of
the first places to be seized? It is the most important house in the
neighborhood and the German officers are sure to take up their
headquarters there.” Nona held out her hand to François.
“I too am sorrier than I can say, but we can’t do what you ask of
us,” she declared, “we must go back to our work. Please try and
make the Countess Amélie understand. Now good-by, François, and
may we meet again in happier times. You must move away from the
door and let us be off, for we are dreadfully late already from talking
to you.”
But old François did not stir.
“You have lived in Madame’s house, you have eaten of her food, and
yet when she may be dying you will not serve her. Because you wear
on your arm the badge of the Croix de Rouge, does it mean that you
care only for soldiers? Because Madame is a woman and an old one,
you feel no interest in her! Truly if she dies this war will have killed
her, for one does not die only from wounds of the flesh.”
Barbara’s blue eyes had slowly filled with tears during the old
peasant’s speech. But now a resolute line formed about the corners
of her pretty mouth that only showed there occasionally.
“I am going to the Countess, Nona,” she remarked quietly. “You
must do whatever your conscience prompts you to do. Mine tells me
that we have accepted a great deal from the Countess and now she
needs me more than any one else. If the hospital staff consider me
a deserter, I cannot help it. Besides, I almost promised Eugenia that
I would go to the Countess Amélie if the Germans conquered this
part of the countryside. It was for another reason I promised, but
tell her, please, and she will understand. Good-by; I’ll join you as
soon as possible. Don’t worry about me.”
Barbara stooped and picked up her bag.
“I’ll find my way to the chateau alone. Fortunately, I know the way,”
she added. “François, you must go with Miss Davis, so as to carry
the other suit-cases. Then you’ll come back to Madame as quickly as
possible.”
Taking a watch out of her pocket, Nona now glanced at it.
“I am coming with you, Barbara. Already we are nearly an hour
behind the time when the field hospital expected to be on its way. If
I return now I shall either find that everybody and everything has
departed, or else it will merely be an additional trouble to dispose of
me at the last. A day’s loss of my services cannot make such a great
difference. So we can first find out how greatly the Countess Amélie
needs us, and then tomorrow, one or both of us must somehow
manage to rejoin the army. The French retreat may not be so
universal as we fear.”
By this time the blue front door had been flung open by François, so
that outside the girls could hear the tramping of many feet. But the
feet were moving with a rhythmical swing that proved the French
soldiers were at least retreating in good order. So far there had been
no rout by the enemy.
Now François was in the greatest hurry of the three. He had taken
Barbara’s bag out of her hand and now laid hold of Nona’s. Then he
set off, trotting so rapidly down the path, in spite of his age and
crooked legs, that the two girls could scarcely keep up with him.
Afterwards he led their way into the woods, skirting along by the
edge of the trees and keeping safely out of sight of the soldiers,
although numbers of them were marching through the same woods
on the farther side.
It was by this time early in the afternoon, but the girls found the
chateau undisturbed. Indeed, the autumn sun shone down upon it
with the same tranquillity as though the world had been at peace
instead of war. Across the neglected lawn a peacock stalked as
majestically and disdainfully as if the old gardens had been filled
with the belles and beaus in the silks and satins of a more
picturesque age.
However, the two American girls were living in a too tragically
workaday world. They had no thought and no time for beauty, since
a shorter and more compelling word urged them on.
The lower part of the old chateau was deserted, and as neither Nona
nor Barbara knew the way upstairs, François preceded them. He
opened first the door of the Countess Amélie’s room, but found it
empty. Without hesitating, he then turned and walked quickly down
a narrow corridor to another room at almost the opposite end of the
house. Knocking at this door and receiving no answer, he crept in
softly, beckoning to the two girls to follow him.
But this room was so vast that neither Nona nor Barbara
immediately discovered its occupant. Evidently it was a man’s room
and must have covered the entire southern end of the chateau. Yet
it was almost bare of furniture of a conventional kind. On the walls
old muskets hung and bayonets of a bygone generation. The floor
was of stone, uncarpeted, and there were only two chairs, a tall
chest of drawers and a single iron bed in the apartment. If the
young Captain Castaigne was a dandy, as Eugenia considered him,
certainly there was nothing about his room to suggest it!
But Barbara was first to reach the bed, because she first saw that
the Countess Amélie had thrown herself upon it. She may have
fainted earlier in the day and thus alarmed François, but at present
she showed no signs of serious illness. Her face was drawn with
suffering, nevertheless she attempted to rise and speak to her
guests as soon as Barbara approached. The Countess Amélie
belonged to the ancient aristocracy of France whose women went to
the guillotine with smiles upon their faces. It was a part of their
pride of class not to betray their deeper emotions.
Yet Barbara found the small hand held out to her extremely cold,
and it was with an effort that the older woman found herself able to
stand.
“I am more than glad you have been able to reach the chateau, Miss
Meade,” she began. “Doubtless you know as well as I do that our
French army is in retreat and that the German army may occupy this
neighborhood at any hour. But where are your other two friends? I
promised my son that in case of danger I would send for you. He
could not contemplate the thought of your being alone if the
barbarians overwhelmed us.”
The Countess spoke quietly enough, yet there was bitter antagonism
in her voice. One could hardly expect a French woman to feel
otherwise at an hour like this. Remember also that this was a portion
of France near the border of Alsace-Lorraine, which the Germans
took as a part of their booty at the close of the Franco-Prussian war.
The French people had not recovered from the bitterness of that
defeat when the great war began.
Barbara was looking somewhat nonplussed at finding that the
Countess was not in need of her services as a nurse, so she allowed
Nona to join her and make the first reply.
“We were under the impression that you were ill and needed us, or
we should not have come,” Nona answered. “The field hospital has
been moved and we intended leaving with them, so we should have
been as safe as possible. Our friends, Miss Thornton and Miss
Peabody, have gone on with the staff. Still, we appreciate your
wishing to protect us,” she ended gently.
In reality, both Nona and Barbara were deeply chagrined at the
position in which they now found themselves. Yet there was no
doubt that the older woman had meant to be kind. Besides, nothing
could be gained by making a protest now.
Both girls accompanied the Countess Amélie out of the room.
“I am alone here, except for François,” she explained. “If the
Germans come this way, doubtless my chateau will be one of the
first places which they will require for their own use. Therefore, it is
necessary that we be ready to leave at once. You need not be
frightened; François, will go with us, and there is a secret passage
leading away from the chateau, through which we can make our
escape without danger. I am going to ask you to help me pack a
small store of provisions, as I think we will be happier with work to
occupy our hands.”
Not a word of her anguish over her son’s uncertain fate, nor a
protest at being forced in her old age to turn her back upon the
home of her ancestors! Surely this was aristocracy of the spirit as
well as of class, Nona and Barbara both thought to themselves,
although neither said a word to the other upon the subject.
That afternoon, between five and six o’clock, François brought word
that the German army had captured the last line of French trenches
and would soon overflow into the countryside.
Ten minutes later the Countess Amélie, Nona, Barbara and François,
voluntarily deserting the chateau, started upon an uncertain journey
to overtake the retreating French army.
CHAPTER XV
The Other Two Girls
J ust as Nona and Barbara had anticipated, Mildred Thornton rode

away with her two patients in one of the first motor ambulances
that hurriedly withdrew from the field hospital to remove the
wounded from the scene of danger. But by another strange
mischance Eugenia was left behind.
She had, of course, continued to assist with the hospital work so
long as there was anything for her to do. However, she had
previously insisted that she be allowed to depart in one of the last of
the motor vans. For the truth is she was unwilling to desert the
neighborhood until Nona and Barbara, having returned from the
farmhouse, were able to go along with her.
So during the last quarter of an hour, when only the tents were left
to be piled upon the last trucks, Eugenia, having no more duties to
perform, wandered a short distance away. She only went about an
eighth of a mile along the path that led in the direction of the
farmhouse and there sat down under a tree to wait for the other two
girls and to watch for a prearranged signal.
Until she began to rest Eugenia really had no idea of how tired she
was. She had been up and at work since five o’clock that morning
under conditions that would have exhausted the strongest person in
the world.
Now there were deafening noises reverberating all about her, while
over her head hung a heavy pall of smoke, sometimes darkening the
atmosphere, but now and then lifting enough to permit a shaft of
light from the November sun to shine through.
At present the firing suggested that the fighting was still at some
distance away, nevertheless the girl realized that the battle must be
drawing nearer and nearer, for already a portion of the retreating
French army had passed within sight of the disbanded hospital.
Eugenia was not conscious of being as greatly depressed by the
French defeat as the other three American Red Cross girls had been.
Her chief thought was the appalling increase of the wounded that
this day’s battle must have caused. At this moment there must be
hundreds, perhaps thousands of boys and men lying wounded and
dying in the fields and trenches with no one to bring them aid.
“If only one could do more to help!” the girl murmured, clasping her
hands wearily together in her lap, but at the same time keeping her
eyes fixed upon the path ahead.
“Why in the world don’t those children come on?” she next asked
impatiently. “Certainly they should not have been trusted to
undertake our packing. I don’t doubt they are putting our new Paris
clothes into the bags!”
As she made this speech, believing that she heard some one
approaching, Eugenia half rose. Then the next instant she was up
and standing with her back braced against the tree, upon which she
had been previously resting. For bounding toward her, with his
tongue hanging out and his head lolling from side to side, was the
dog belonging to Captain Henri Castaigne.
After her past experience it was impossible for Eugenia not to feel
nervous, for the silver-gray brute was of enormous size and
strength. Yet when the dog reached her side, for the second time he
crouched down at Eugenia’s feet. This time, however, instead of
hanging down his head, he turned his gray-brown eyes upward upon
the girl’s with such a depth of entreaty that, without knowing why,
she was moved.
“It is all right, Duke, I forgive you all the past, even if I have not
forgiven your master!” she exclaimed, speaking in a friendly tone,
although scorning to use the dog’s French name. “But do run home
now to your mistress. For this, I trust, is a final farewell between us,
as we shall probably never meet again.”
Even though she spoke thus lightly, Eugenia was conscious that
there might be a possible tragedy in the fact that Duke could not
return to his master. Perhaps Captain Castaigne was even now
among the missing.
However, the great Dane gave no sign of having heard Eugenia’s
command, but instead gave her another look of profound appeal.
When she showed no indication of having understood his meaning,
he got up and caught her dress firmly between his teeth. Then not
ungently but authoritatively he began dragging her along with him.
For the first moment Eugenia was too surprised to make any special
resistance. The next she called out angrily to the dog to let go; and
then, finding he had no idea of obeying her, tore her coat from
between his clenched teeth.
Duke’s answer was to gaze at her reproachfully and then to gather a
larger portion of her clothing in his mouth and start off faster the
second time, with the girl obliged to follow.
Naturally Eugenia was angry. This objectionable dog appeared
designed by fate to be a nuisance to her. Yet she was unable to
make up her mind what to do. She could tear herself away again
with another disastrous result to her clothing; besides, the dog
would doubtless seize hold on her again. And to struggle with the
enormous creature could only bring misfortune upon herself, since
there was no doubt of Duke’s determination.
So for twenty yards or more Eugenia moved along without further
protest, then she concluded to call and summon some one to her
assistance. No one chanced to be in sight, but there were, of course,
several of the hospital workers not far away, so that in case Duke
turned dangerous a shot would quickly put an end to him.
With this thought in mind Eugenia again looked at the dog. He was
such a magnificent creature it would be a tragedy to kill him.
Besides, was she not so sick at heart at all the unnecessary waste of
death that she would not voluntarily destroy the tiniest spark of life?
Something of this feeling must have at this instant communicated
itself to Duke’s intelligence, for suddenly and of his own accord he
released Eugenia’s dress. But instead of leaving her he walked on a
few steps further, stopped, turned around again and made a second
appeal and then went slowly on a few feet more.
Afterwards Eugenia decided that she must have been abnormally
dull at this time. But then her attention had been so concentrated
upon the hope of Barbara’s and Nona’s immediate return. For it was
not until Duke had made his third demand that his purpose finally
occurred to her. Of course, he wished her to go with him to find
some lost place or person.
Eugenia never considered the possible distance that she might be
expected to travel, for all at once she seemed curiously under the
domination of the dog’s desire. For she straightway put her hand
reassuringly upon Duke’s collar.
“It is all right, old fellow, I understand at last and will come along
with you,” she said aloud.
Then in a perfectly matter-of-fact fashion Eugenia moved along by
the dog’s side. Soon after she knew that he was leading her in the
direction of the French trenches which were directly within the firing
line. However, it did not strike her that she was facing any greater
peril than she and the field hospital staff had been enduring all day.
For one grows accustomed to war’s horrors as well as to most other
things.
Nevertheless, Eugenia flinched many times as the dog led the way,
walking now and then beside men’s bodies that did not stir either at
their approach or after their passing. Yet Red Cross nurses must
learn a certain amount of stoicism to be of real value in their work.
Once or twice Eugenia wondered if she could possibly manage to
finish the task Duke required of her in time to leave with the last of
the field hospital staff, yet it was odd how secondary this idea
became.
Some other guiding force had taken possession of her at the time,
for the purpose in hand seemed the one thing supremely worth
while.
Only through one’s imagination can the picture of a battlefield be
really seen, for even when the eyes behold it, the spirit must act as
its interpreter.
For nearly a year Eugenia had been nursing the soldiers in this worst
of all possible wars, yet it was not until this afternoon that she had
ever visited a battleground while the fighting was going on.
But fortunately the field to which Duke brought her was no longer a
center of the firing. The field lay just behind a trench which but a
few hours before had been a target for German artillery. However,
the trench had already been captured, so that many of the soldiers
who lay dead upon the ground had been killed during their effort to
retreat.
Therefore the accident that occurred was not one which could have
been reasonably expected.
With his great head bowed Duke was treading slowly, as if he
realized the ugliness of the human tragedy surrounding them.
Neither was Eugenia thinking of herself; nevertheless, a moment
later and she lay stretched upon the battleground, as still and
unconscious as any of the recumbent figures by whom she had so
lately passed.
There for hours Duke stood sentinel beside her, yet not knowing
whether he should go or remain. For while love compelled him in
one direction, his sense of honor constrained him to stay by the
companion who had fallen by his side.
Did Duke realize his own responsibility in the catastrophe, that his
honor prevailed?
The entire afternoon passed and finally evening came and yet
Eugenia did not stir. She looked an incongruous figure on the field of
the dead. For although she wore her nursing cloak it had floated
open as she fell, revealing her woman’s uniform with the cross of
crimson upon her arm.
CHAPTER XVI
The Discovery
B ut between eight and nine o’clock on that same evening Eugenia

opened her eyes. She was unable to think clearly at first and
stared in amazement at the canopy of blue sky above her head.
What had become of the familiar ceiling of her room at the
farmhouse?
But then her head was aching dully so that it made her more
uncomfortable to try to think at all. She did not even wish to call for
the other girls, because Barbara would probably come to her in a
little while. She remembered that Barbara had been especially kind
when she had just such another absurd headache a short time
before.
Closing her eyes again, Eugenia rested. But something warm and
soft seemed to be moving about near her face, breathing over her in
a curious, enveloping fashion impossible from a human being. It was
like a damp cloud.
Putting out her hand, Eugenia touched Duke’s moist nose, and then
almost instantly returned to a knowledge of the situation.
She recalled in detail the events of the past afternoon, but could find
no explanation for her own presence here upon the ground among
the wounded. For she was not suffering sufficient pain to suggest
that she had been shot by a stray rifle ball from the enemy’s lines.
Moreover, Eugenia found that she could move both her arms and
legs without difficulty. They were stiff, but that may have been due
either to fatigue or to her position upon the earth. However, the
ache in her head continued so that Eugenia put up her fingers to her
temple. There was a curious something clotted on her hair at the left
side, which she at once knew to be blood.
Then she understood what had happened. A piece of shell from an
exploding bomb must have struck and stunned her into
unconsciousness. However, it must have come from such a distance
that it had spent its force, for she was not seriously injured. Already
the slight scalp wound had closed and was no longer bleeding.
Eugenia rose up slowly to a sitting position, realizing fully the gravity
of her situation. Yet she would not allow herself to reflect upon its
horrors. She must decide what she should best do. Would it be wiser
to stay where she was for the rest of the night or try to seek
assistance? Yet what had taken place in the countryside during the
afternoon while she lay in a stupor? Were the French or the
Germans in possession of the neighborhood?
However, Eugenia was not to be allowed to reach her decision alone.
For no sooner had she gotten up than Duke once more began
pulling at her dress, very softly at first, as one who has respect for
an invalid, but no less insistently.
A dog’s devotion and a dog’s persistence are two qualities worthy of
human admiration and wonder.
At this moment Eugenia felt both. She laid her hand quietly and
affectionately on Duke’s head.
“I can’t go with you again. I am too used up, Duke, to help you find
your friend. You would simply have another victim on your hands.
But you need stay with me no longer. I shall wait here for you until
daylight.”
But though Eugenia waved her hand in token of dismissal and
farewell, the dog did not leave her, although he seemed to
appreciate the fact that she was unable to accompany him. For he
gave up his hold on her and merely sat down reflectively by her side,
as if he too were trying to decide what course it was wise to pursue.
It was plain that Duke was wretchedly unhappy. If he could not
show his grief in a human fashion, he had his own especial methods.
When Eugenia put her arm about his body she could feel the
anguished beating of his heart.
“I wonder who it can be, Duke, that you wish to find so ardently?”
the girl questioned. “Surely some one whom you love very deeply! I
am sorry to be so useless and it is dreadful to think of your friend’s
long waiting for your return, so you must go, Duke, even if I cannot
go with you. Then if you are no longer needed, come back to me.”
Eugenia made this long speech aloud in a pleading tone,
nevertheless she again discovered that it was easier to say what this
great dog should do than to force him to obey one’s will.
Yet while Eugenia was reflecting upon this fact she had her moment
of inspiration. She knew that in many parts of the army dogs had
been trained for searching out the wounded. Only a short time
before in the papers distributed by the French Red Cross Society she
had read that these dogs were sent forth with long ropes tied about
their necks, so that when possible the wounded were thus dragged
to places of aid.
Eugenia had no rope, but one often wonders why women are
accused of being without inventive talents. So far it is true that only
a few of their inventions have been of world value; to find them one
must seek among the homes. This American girl at once slipped off
her long cloth nursing coat. It was of strong, well-woven material,
yet she managed within a few moments to tear it into strips and
then to knot the strips firmly together.
Then she tied the long cord about Duke’s neck. One could not tell
whether the dog would understand his mission, or whether the rope
would be of service when Duke reached his goal. Yet in every
uncertainty in life one must simply attempt the thing that seems
most intelligent. And Eugenia felt convinced that Duke would bring
his friend back to her. Then she could decide on what should be
done next.
Duke did seem to understand, for as soon as Eugenia had finished
her task and commanded him to be gone, he trotted obediently off
until his great shadow was lost in the distance.
Then the girl lay down again. She had natural self-control and her
nursing had taught her even more. She must sleep if possible and in
any case not let herself dwell on her own presence here within the
field of the dead.
When Eugenia closed her eyes the moon had not risen and the night
was fairly dark. Half an hour later, when she reopened them, a full
moon had flooded the field with light. She could see Duke
approaching at some yards away. He was moving slowly and it was
difficult at first to find out the reason. Eugenia rose quickly to her
feet. Yes, it was evident now: he was drawing someone along
behind him.
The girl walked forward to meet the dog and his burden. Then,
although she had been growing daily more accustomed to war and
its inevitable sorrows, she stopped and drew in her breath sharply.
The next instant Eugenia had forgotten everything but that she was
a Red Cross nurse whose purpose was to do whatever she could to
relieve suffering.
The figure that the dog dragged along on the ground had the face
turned downward. But when she lifted the body up Eugenia was not
surprised to recognize in the white, still features, the face of young
Captain Henri Castaigne. All along she had thought it probable that
Duke could feel no such intense devotion for any one save his
master.
After the dog’s return the young officer had somehow managed to
tie the long strip of cloth about his own body. He must have realized
that he would lose consciousness on his journey to find succor, for
he had been cruelly wounded in both legs.
Never before had Eugenia felt more painfully helpless. There were so
many things which should be done for the young soldier at once and
she was so unable to do any one of them.
Of course, she knelt and felt the action of his pulse and heart,
finding neither so feeble as she had feared. Then Eugenia, who was
given to definite actions, made another decision.
It would be impossible to be of service to Captain Castaigne here in
an open field with no water near, so far as she knew. She had a little
in the canteen in her pocket, but this would only be enough for him
to drink and would certainly be insufficient for the cleansing of his
wounds. Besides, even with the use of the small flashlight every Red
Cross nurse carries, she was unable to discover whether the rifle
balls were still imbedded in her patient’s flesh. Certainly he must be
carried to some place where he could receive proper attention, but
in the meantime Eugenia thanked Providence that she had with her
her bag of first aid appliances. It had been strapped about her waist
while she sat under the tree earlier in the day, waiting to start out
with the field hospital staff. Until now she had no thought or use for
it.
Eugenia used the necessary antiseptics and then bound the wounds
as carefully as possible. But she made no effort to bring her patient
back to consciousness. For the purpose she had in mind it would be
best that he feel and know as little as possible.
Once her task accomplished Eugenia again wound her improvised
rope about Captain Castaigne’s waist. Again she signaled Duke to
start upon a journey, but this time she formed a member of the little
party.
Her idea was to get the wounded officer back in the neighborhood of
the field hospital, and then if she could find no aid there, somehow
to reach their own farmhouse. From there word could be sent to the
chateau.
But the trip was a terrible one and took longer hours than one could
have imagined. Now and then Eugenia would try to assist by
supporting the young officer’s body with her own strength. But as
she could not lift him entirely this only seemed to make the task
more difficult for the devoted Duke. Often they were obliged to stop
and then Eugenia would kneel down beside the body to find out if
the young man was still alive.
It was about dawn when they arrived at last in the neighborhood of
the former French field hospital, where the four American girls had
been nursing. But Eugenia found few traces of the hospital left.
Everywhere in the vicinity the ground had been trampled under foot.
The white tents had been folded, and like the proverbial Arabian
tents, had silently stolen away. Neither was there a single human
being about.
However, Eugenia had anticipated this. But she had also steadfastly
hoped that here upon more familiar ground she might make some
useful discovery.
Ordering Duke to remain quiet beside his burden, Eugenia started
upon a pilgrimage. She must find something to make the trip to the
farmhouse more endurable, more possible for the young French
soldier. Yet she could not make up her mind to desert him in order to
seek for help.
At first, the girl could, of course, find nothing. But by wandering
around on the outskirts of the grounds, where the deserted hospital
had formerly stood, Eugenia finally came across an old wheelbarrow.
It had been used for bringing vegetables to the hospital staff, and
being of no value had been left behind.
Scarcely an ideal motor ambulance for a wounded officer.
Nevertheless Eugenia seized upon the wheelbarrow with almost as
much enthusiasm as if it had been. For at least it had wheels and
she would be able to push it.
Naturally this was a hard task, but one should not think upon the
difficulty when a task is to be accomplished.
The blue front door of the little farmhouse was standing open when
Eugenia reached home. Half lifting and half dragging her patient,
she finally succeeded in placing him upon a small couch in their
living room.
Then, being the methodical person she was, Eugenia went directly
to the kitchen, made herself a cup of coffee and drank it. For her
strength had almost given out and she knew not what work might lie
ahead of her.
CHAPTER XVII
Recognition
H owever, it was nearly noon before Eugenia made the discovery

that the entire French army in the vicinity had retreated, leaving
all the country nearby in the hands of the Germans. Only then did
she appreciate the difficulty of concealing a young French officer in
her home, who would doubtless be taken prisoner if his presence
and his identity were discovered.
Her information came about in this fashion. For two hours Eugenia
worked with her patient, washing his wounds and even managing to
extract a bullet which had lodged near the surface. Also she bathed
his face and poured brandy between his haggard lips until he
opened his eyes, only to close them again in utter exhaustion.
Finally, when she could do nothing more, Eugenia walked to her
front door to get some fresh air. She meant in a few moments to go
to the Chateau d’Amélie and send old François to the nearest village
for a doctor. So far it simply had not occurred to her that François
and his mistress might have deserted the chateau for the same
reason that had compelled the removal of the field hospital.
Outside, like a tired sentinel, Eugenia found Duke asleep in the front
yard. Then while hesitating to wake him, even to keep guard over
his master, she became vaguely conscious that soldiers were
marching past. The next instant she realized that their uniforms
were German and not French and that they wore the eagle
triumphant on their shining helmets.
They were passing close to the little “House with the Blue Front
Door,” so that Eugenia wondered why no one stopped to investigate
it. Then she remembered that Barbara had hung the Red Cross
emblem outside and that the soldiers were treating it with
extraordinary respect.
Would they continue to do this after discovering that the only person
beside herself under the protection of the Red Cross flag was an
enemy’s officer?
Eugenia was convinced otherwise. Captain Castaigne would be
promptly taken prisoner so soon as she told of his whereabouts and
sent to a hospital within the German lines. And to be moved at the
present time would probably mean the young officer’s death.
Calling Duke inside, Eugenia closed and bolted the blue front door.
Then she considered whether she could manage to keep the young
Frenchman concealed and yet take the proper care of him. It would
be impossible to expect the assistance of a physician, for the nearest
village would assuredly be occupied by the Germans and to demand
a doctor must mean the betrayal of her patient.
It was possible, however, that she could hide Captain Castaigne
away for a time at least, while she remained unmolested in the little
farmhouse, with Duke as her protector. She would explain to the
German officer in command just what had taken place that caused
her to be left behind by the hospital staff. Then there would be little
reason for interfering with her, unless the farmhouse should be
required for the shelter of the soldiers. But as it was small and
somewhat out of the way she hoped it might be ignored.
The chiefly important thing was to wait quietly until the next
morning and then find out Captain Castaigne’s condition. Eugenia
meant to make as brave a fight for his life as possible. If he
recovered there would be time enough to determine whether he
should surrender or make an effort to escape and rejoin his
command. Fortunately there were both provisions and medical
supplies stored in the farmhouse. Judge Thornton had sent fresh
orders of both from Paris quite recently.
So for the rest of the afternoon and evening Eugenia sat by her
patient while Duke crouched on the floor near them both. No one
disturbed them; the little house might have been in the center of a
vast desert for any human interest it created. The day before
Eugenia had closed its outside windows and doors, and since had
opened only the one window necessary for light and air.
For the greater part of the night Captain Castaigne was delirious
from a high fever. Eugenia knew that it would be almost impossible
for him to escape blood poison, after the dirt had been ground into
his wounds from the long dragging of his body on the earth.
Nevertheless, now and then the young officer slept the sleep of utter
exhaustion, with Duke and Eugenia both slumbering beside him
whenever this opportunity came.
Eugenia did not question the reason for her care. She had not liked
the young Frenchman at their first meeting in Paris. Certainly their
second accidental meeting in the woods had not increased her liking.
Moreover, she had been entirely out of sympathy with him, with his
mother and with their French ideas and environment on the
afternoon of her one call.
Yet none of these things counted in the least with Eugenia. Captain
Castaigne was a French soldier, one of the men whom she had come
to Europe to nurse in case he needed her care. Therefore he should
have the best it was in her power to offer.
Once, while in the act of giving him medicine to relieve his fever, the
young man murmured his mother’s name and for the instant
Eugenia was moved to sympathy. All the rest of the time her feeling
was entirely impersonal. Captain Castaigne was merely a patient
who must if possible be kept alive and later restored to health. If she
had any feeling in the matter Eugenia was sorry that she had ever
made the young man’s acquaintance before this night.
Nevertheless, at about six o’clock the following morning, after an
entire hour of refreshing sleep, Eugenia opened her eyes to find her
patient gazing steadfastly at her. For the time being his delirium had
passed and she realized that he recognized her and longed to ask
questions but was still too weak and ill to speak.
A half an hour afterwards, after a few sips of clam bouillon which
chanced to be among the household stores, Captain Castaigne said a
few words.
“What does this mean?” he asked in painstaking English,
appreciating even in his present condition that Miss Peabody
preferred the conversation to take place in her native tongue.
Eugenia thought quickly. The young officer could not entirely grasp
the situation even if she were able to tell him the entire story.
Moreover, at present the story was too long and too exciting for him
to hear. Also, he might feel burdened by his obligation to her and
unwilling for her to make the sacrifices necessary for his safety if he
learned the truth now.
So she gazed back at him with the quiet serenity that made her so
valuable a nurse.
“You understand you have been hurt? Well, I have been appointed
to take charge of you. You are to see no one else for a time, not
even your mother. Try to sleep now, for you must be as quiet as
possible.”
When Captain Castaigne immediately closed his eyes, Eugenia
choked back a sigh of relief. Evidently so far he had paid no
attention to his strange surroundings. It was her presence alone that
had surprised him, and he would probably be unable to make further
inquiries for some time to come. Possibly he would not even
recognize her again. For Eugenia understood the nature of the
disease with which she was to do battle and realized that there
might be weeks of continued delirium.
For the next fourteen days Eugenia was correct in her
prognostication. But as they were a rather dreadful two weeks for
her she would never talk of them freely afterwards. All that time she
had but faint hope that the young soldier would live, and except for
her patient and Duke she was completely alone.
However, Eugenia managed to get the young fellow upstairs and into
Barbara’s former blue bedroom, although he was never conscious of
the change.
She was compelled to do this, or else have her patient discovered.
For she was not to remain entirely undisturbed while the victorious
German soldiers overran the entire neighborhood.
One afternoon, three days after their installation, when fortunately
she chanced to be working in her kitchen, a tremendous knocking
sounded upon the blue front door. Immediately Eugenia conceived
that it was some one sent to inquire why a solitary female should
remain sequestered in a house, when supplies and houses were so
much needed for the German soldiers.
A satisfactory explanation would doubtless be difficult; nevertheless
Eugenia, with a blue check gingham apron over her nursing one and
a cup and saucer and dish towel in her hands, opened the front
door.
There was something which she hoped looked “old maidy” in this
suggestion of dishes and tea. Nothing to suggest the concealment of
a young French officer!
Outside her door Eugenia encountered a stiff German youth in an
immaculate uniform, bearing an official letter. The letter commanded
Eugenia to report to the officer in authority in the nearest village.
She was to explain her presence in the neighborhood, her
occupation, and above all offer proof of her nationality.
Therefore, before setting out the next morning Eugenia changed the
quarters of her patient. There could be little doubt that some one
would be sent to investigate the interior of the little “Farmhouse with
the Blue Front Door.” One could scarcely expect to keep a soldier
hidden in the only room of any size in the house.
Fortunately Barbara’s room was the most inconspicuous of the four
bedrooms. Besides, Eugenia had a certain scheme in mind which she
hoped might help when the critical moment arrived.
Naturally Eugenia had passports and certificates to identify herself as
an American Red Cross nurse. But she also took with her to the
colonel of the German regiment another paper of a different
character. However, she did not mean to show this before feeling her
way very carefully. The paper was a check for a large sum of money
on an American bank in Boston and signed with her own name.
At the improvised office of the German colonel, Eugenia told her
story as briefly as possible. Moreover, she told the exact truth in
regard to herself in every detail up to a certain moment. This was
the moment when she awakened to consciousness after being struck
by a German shell.
There was nothing antagonistic in Eugenia’s manner with the officer.
She explained to him that the little French farmhouse had been
allotted to the use of the four American Red Cross nurses and that
the other three girls had retreated with the French field hospital
staff. Then she asked that she be allowed to remain in their house
until such time as she could communicate with her friends in
America. As she was alone it would be impossible to have German
soldiers quartered upon her.
At this moment Eugenia put her hand upon the check in her pocket.
Very frankly she then declared that she realized it to be each
person’s duty to assist with the shelter and feeding of a victorious
army. But as she was unable to do either of these things, would not
the colonel accept money instead? She trusted that he would not be
offended by her unusual suggestion, for it appeared to her the only
just and fair thing to do under the circumstances. Finally after
further discussion and hesitation and another careful study of her
passports, the German officer agreed to do what Eugenia had
suggested. However, he insisted, as a matter of necessary formality,
that two German soldiers be sent to her house next day on a tour of
inspection. When they came Eugenia had the courage to show them
into the very blue bedroom where the young French officer lay
concealed. But beforehand, and in spite of her Puritan ancestry, she
explained that this room was her own bedchamber. Moreover, to
prove that she had nothing to keep secret she had entirely emptied
her closet. Her own clothes, beside all those that the other three

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Product Maturity, Volume 2 : Principles and Illustrations

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Theoretical Principles and

ISTE Ltd John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

© ISTE Ltd 2022

Library of Congress Control Number: 2021949035

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

Foreword by Laurent Denis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

Foreword by Serge Zaninotti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii

Chapter 1. Reliability Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Chapter 3. Derating Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Chapter 4. Components with Limited Service Life. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

4.1. RDF 2000 guide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Chapter 5. Analysis of Product Performances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

5.1. Analyses during the design stage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Chapter 6. Aggravated Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

Chapter 7. Burn-In Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

7.1. Link between HALT and HASS tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

7.4.2. Detection stage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

Chapter 8. Run-In . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

8.1. Run-in principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

List of Notations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

List of Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

List of Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

Surprisingly, a similar problem exists in industry: there is a willingness to forget

Indeed, thanks to those who trained me as a quality engineer, I have always

It is often the failures or non-quality observed during the development or

However, in order to find an appropriate response to prevent these unexpected

In order to understand the problem of system maturity as a whole, before

Having trained as a general engineer within the Department of Energy and

During the whole lifecycle of a product, from specification to operation by the

There is abundant information on maturity, but this applies mostly to process

In this book, maturity is defined as the ability of a product to achieve the

1.1. Failure rate

Reliability studies the occurrence of failures in time. These instances of failure

Product Maturity 1: Theoretical Principles and Industrial Applications,

exception of specific components with a “limited service life” or premature aging, as

We begin by addressing intrinsic reliability. Intrinsic reliability refers to the

To facilitate understanding of the concept of failure rate, the analogy with a

Figure 1.1. Bathtub curve example

where η is a scale factor (generally time-dependent) and represents typical service

This modeling is interesting for the following three reasons:

Figure 1.2. Fall leaves illustrating aging. For a color version

As an illustration, let us assume a Weibull distribution whose scale factor is

Figure 1.3. Failure instants for β = 3 and β = 10

This represents the exponential distribution law modeling catastrophic failures.

In this case, we can return to an exponential distribution because, for these

with β > 1 and Tm = mission duration.

To obtain a sufficiently high probability of success in the mission (survival

Consequently, failures following an exponential distribution with an identical