CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

NATIONAL OPEN UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA

COURSE CODE : CSS 244

COURSE TITLE:
TYPES AND ANALYSIS OF SECURITY THREATS

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats
COURSE GUIDE

CSS 244
TYPES AND ANALYSIS OF SECURITY THREATS

Course Developer/Writer Monsuru Adegboyega Kasali

Non-Violence and Intercultural Communication
Advocacy Initiatives, Ibadan, Nigeria

Course Editor Adewole Akinyemi Atere, Ph.D

College of Management & Social Sciences
Osun State University

Course Coordinator Adeniyi Adegoke, Ph.D

Criminology and Security Studies
School of Arts and Social Sciences
National Open University of Nigeria

Programme Leader Prof. Abdul-Rasheed Yesufu

Dean, School of Arts and Social Sciences
National Open University of Nigeria

NATIONAL OPEN UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

National Open University of Nigeria

Headquarters
University Village
Plot 91, Cadastral Zone,
Nnamdi Azikiwe Express way
Jabi, Abuja

Lagos Office
14/16 Ahmadu Bello Way
Victoria Island, Lagos

e-mail: [email protected]
website: www.nouedu.net

Published by

National Open University of Nigeria

Printed

ISBN:

All Rights Reserved

CONTENTS PAGE

Introduction ................................................................... ...i-ii

What You Will Learn in this Course ................................ ii-iii
Course Aims ................................................................. iii-iv
Course Objectives ......................................................... iv

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Working through this Course ............................................. v

Course Materials ............................................................ v
Study Units .....................................................................…v-vi
Textbooks and References ................................................. vi-vii
Assignment File ................................................................ viii
Assessment ........................................................................ viii
Tutor-Marked Assignment ................................................... .viii
Final Examination and Grading ........................................ viii
Course Marking Scheme .................................................... ix
Course Overview ............................................................... ix-x
Presentation Schedule ........................................................ x
How to Get the Most from this Course............................... x
Reading Section .............................................................. xi
Facilitators/Tutors and Tutorials ................................... ...xii
Summary ........................................................................... xii-xiii

Introduction

CSS 244: Types and Analysis of Security Threats is a 3-credit unit course. It is a
compulsory course for all post-graduate diploma students in the field of Criminology
and Security Studies of the University. The course is also recommended to any other
post-graduate students especially those in the School of Arts and Social Sciences, who
may have interest in the study and analysis of security threats and the mitigation
techniques that can be adopted to prevent the occurrence of various threats or/and
reduce the losses that may accompany the occurrence of any threats. The course can
also be taken as an elective or required course by other post-graduate students whose
main field(s) of discipline is not Criminology and Security Studies.

However, the Course shall consist of 20 units, which are divided into 4 modules, and
each of these modules shall consist of 5 units whereby the study draws a link between
one unit and the other. In the first 2 modules of this course, we focus on various areas
of discourse that explain the subject- types of security threats while the last 2
modules illuminate on various threat mitigation measures and crime management
approaches that can assist in no small measure to prevent, detect, and control all
forms of security threats. On the whole, the units contained in the course deal with
the meaning and types of security threats; basic human or manmade security threats,
terrorism as a security threat; war as a security threat; information warfare as a
security threat; analyses of geological, climatic and environmental threats; basic types
of security; civil security approaches to threat mitigation; risk psychology and
analysis; among others.

More interestingly, the material largely draws its case studies from security conditions
and major threats experienced in Nigeria and Africa with the aim of exposing the
reader or student to security challenges confronting Nigeria in particular and Africa as
a whole. Having known that our study on types and analysis of security threats cannot
be complete if we fail to have the knowledge of the overall incidence of security

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

threats and mitigation techniques in some other places or continents, we shall also cite
examples from other parts of the world including America, Europe and Asia.

The course has no compulsory pre-requisites for it to be registered for. The course
guide informs us on what this course is all about, what students will learn in each unit,
what text materials we shall be using and how we can make the best use of these
materials. This course guide also emphasises on the need for students to take tutor-
marked assignments so seriously. However, necessary information on tutor-marked
assignments shall be made known to students in a separate file, which will be sent to
each of them at the appropriate time. This course is also supported with periodic
tutorial classes.

What You Will Learn in this Course

CSS 645: Types and Analysis of Security Threats as a course in the field of
Criminology and Security Studies at the National Open University of Nigeria focuses
on a wide range of issues that bother on the meaning and types of security threats as
well as identifying many threat mitigation measures and crime detection and control
mechanisms in reducing the adverse effects of various security threats on people or
communities. In this course, we carefully analyse and assess security threats, to assist
the student not only to identify these threats but also to develop diagnostic framework
through which they can proffer solutions towards hazard mitigation and effective
security management. Also, the reader or student will be exposed to various measures
that can safeguard the protection of life and property against the incidence of security
threat and hazard.

Nevertheless, the essence of these safety measures is at least to provide the student or
reader with various ways through which he/she can reduce losses from any incidence
on hazard or security attack, if you cannot prevent such threat or hazard from
occurring. Knowing the impact that active involvement of civilians in security can
have in complementing and increasing the capacity of the security personnel to
carryout their duties effectively, the course also explores the strategic importance of
civil security and how it can contribute to effective security management and threat
mitigation. The issue of risk is germane to a discourse on security threats. This is
because we take risks in our daily activities, and through risk psychology, we shall be
explaining why some people take the issue of security risk so seriously while others do
not take it seriously. In this analysis of risk, we examine how some individual or
collective or governmental undertakings or actions can increase the possibility of risk,
which may have either positive or adverse effects on our security or wellbeing. The
material also focuses on other crime control and threat mitigation approaches including
vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VAC), Crime analysis as well as data mining
and automated data analysis.

Course Aims

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

The overall aim of CSS 244: Types and Analysis of Security Threats as a course is to
explore the meaning and types of security threats. It aims to classify various types of
threats according to their peculiar conditions and features. Basically, threats are often
classified as natural and human forms of security threats but this course further
delineates the classification of threats into geological, climatic, environmental and
human or manmade security threats for conceptual clarity and better appreciation of the
subject-types of security threats. The course also explains different approaches and
techniques through which security threats can be mitigated or controlled. The material
describes the meaning of various types of basic security and their different approaches
to general security management. These include measures to safeguard the security of
computer and information systems, physical structures, infrastructure, public health,
food supply among others. The course also shows the importance of civil security
approaches, risk psychology and analysis, simulation, crime analysis and data mining
and automated data analysis to threat mitigation and crime control. The material draws
its case studies from the local and international environments. The course aims to:

•• Conceptualise the term security threat;

•• Identify various security threats;
•• Classify or categorise various security threats;
•• Discuss the meaning and types of various human or man-made security threats;
•• Examine various manmade security threats;
•• Explain the meaning and types of geological security threats;
•• Examine climatic security threats;
•• Analyse environmental threats;
•• Explore how the various types of security threats pose a danger to any people
or community;
•• Propose measures and approaches that aid in mitigating or reducing the
occurrence of different security threats;
•• Unravel the importance of civil security approaches to threat mitigation and
crime control;
•• Elaborate the relevance of the study of risk psychology and analysis in threat
mitigation and crime reduction;
•• Illuminate on how simulation exercise can contribute to threat reduction and
law enforcement;
•• Investigate the significance of crime analyse in threat mitigation and crime
management; and
•• Verify how data mining and automated data analyses can serve as important
tools to crime detection, control and threat mitigation.

Course Objectives

With utmost desire to achieve the aims set out above, the course has some set of
objectives as demonstrated in all the units of the course. Each unit has its own
objectives. Objectives are always included at the beginning of every unit to assist the
student in the appreciation of what he or she will come across in the study of each unit
to facilitate his or her better understanding of the course-CSS 244: Types and

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Analyses of Security Threat. The Student is, therefore, advised to read these objectives
before studying the entire unit(s). The reason is that it is helpful to do so. You should
always look at the unit objectives after completing a unit. In this way, you can be sure
that you have done what was required of you by the unit.

Working through this Course

In completing this course, the student is required to study the whole units, and try to
read all (or substantial number of) the recommended textbooks, journals and other
reading materials including electronic resources. Each unit contains self assessment
exercise(s) and the student is required to submit his or her assignment for the purpose
of assessment. At the end of the course, the student(s) shall be examined. The time of
the final examination and venue shall be communicated to all the registered students in
due course by relevant school authorities-study centre management. Below are the
components of the course and what you are required to do.

Course Materials

Major components of the course include:

1. Course Guide
2. Study Units
3. Textbooks
4. Assignments File
5. Presentation Schedule

It is incumbent upon every student to get his or her own copy of the course material.
You are also advised to contact your tutorial facilitator, if you have any difficulty in
getting any of the text materials recommended for your further reading.

Study Units

In this course there are twenty units, which include:

Module 1- CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF SECURITY THREATS AND

TYPES OF SECURITY THREATS (MANMADE)

Unit 1: Meaning & Types of Security Threat

Unit 2: Basic Human or Manmade Threats
Unit 3: Terrorism as a Security Threat and Individual Protective Measures
Unit 4: War as a Security Threat
Unit 5: Information Warfare as a Security Threat

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats
Module 2- ANALYSIS OF NON-HUMAN SECURITY THREATS

Unit 1: Analysis of Geological Security Threat/Hazards I

Unit 2: Analysis of Geological Security Threat/Hazards II
Unit 3: Analysis of Climatic Security Threat/Hazards
Unit 4: Analysis of Environmental Security Threat/Hazards I
Unit 5: Analysis of Environmental Security Threat/Hazards II

Module 3- TYPES OF SECURITY AND APPROACHES TO THREAT

MITIGATION

Unit 1: Basic Types of Security I

Unit 2: Basic Types of Security II
Unit 3: Basic Types of Security III
Unit 4: Civil Security Approaches to Threat Mitigation I
Unit 5: Civil Security Approaches to Threat Mitigation II

Module 4- MEASURES FOR THREAT MANAGEMENT

Unit 1: Risk: Meaning, Psychology & Analysis

Unit 2: Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment
Unit 3: Simulation in Law Enforcement
Unit 4: Crime Analysis: Meaning and Importance to Crime Mitigation
Unit 5: Applying Data Mining & Automated Data Analysis for Crime Management

The first module consists of five units, which will expose the student or reader to the
conceptual definition of security threats and various types of security threats Within
the same module, we shall be exploring and explaining different types of human or
manmade security threats including robbery, theft, assassination, hijacking, terrorism,
war among others. In the second module, we shall be focusing on natural threats
including geological and climatic forms of threats as well as environmental threats that
are often caused more by anthropogenic factors than nature. In the third and fourth
modules, we shall be explaining various measures and approaches that can help in the
mitigation of security threats as well as detection and control of various crimes that
can pose security risk to any people or communities.

Text-Books and References

The following textbooks are recommended to students taking the course.

Berkowitz, B. J., Frost, M., Hajic, E. J. & Redisch, H. (1972). Superviolence: The
Civil Threat of Mass Destruction Weapons. Report A72-034-10, 29 September.
ADCON (Advanced Concepts Research) Corporation, Santa Barbara, CA.

Boba, R. (2005). Crime Analysis and Crime Mapping. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
Publications.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Dannreuther, R. (2007). International Security: The Contemporary Agenda. West

Sussex: John Willey & Sons.

Kinkus, J.F. (2002). Science and Technology Resources on the Internet: Computer
Security. Issues in Science and Technology Librarianship, No. 36. Available on
://www.istl.org/02-fall/index.html. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

Jenkins, B. M. (1975). High Technology Terrorism and Surrogate War: The Impact of
New Technology on Level Violence, (The RAND Paper Series, No. 5339) January.

Gordon, J. (2000). Risk Assessment and Management in Local Government

Emergency Planning, Part 1: Basic concepts. Canadian Journal of Emergency
Management 2(2): 11-12.
Wold, G.H. & Shriver, R.F. (1997). Risk Analysis Techniques. Disaster Recovery
Journal. Available on ://www.drj.com/new2dr/w3_030.htm. Retrieved on 28 August,
2009.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). (2006). An
Introduction to Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment. Geneva.
Molander, R. C., Riddile, A. S. & Wilson, P. (1996). Strategic Information Warfare:
A New Face of War. Santa Monica, California: RAND, MR-661-OSD.

Tickner, J.A. (1995) Re-visioning Security. In: Booth, K. & Smiths, S. (eds.).
International Relations Theory Today. Cambridge: Polity Press. 175-198.

Waever, Ole (1995). Securitization and Desecuritization. In: Lipschutz, R.D (ed.). On
Security. New York: Columbia University Press. 46-86.

Wardlaw, G. (1989). Political Terrorism: Theory, Tactics and Counter Measures.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (2nd Edition).

Garland, D. (2001). The Culture of Control: Crime and Social Order in Contemporary
Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lipschutz, R. D. (ed.). (1995). On Security. New York: Columbia University Press.
Dory, A.J. (2003). Civil Security: Americans and the Challenges of Homeland
Security. Washington DC: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (September).
Assignment File

In this file, you will find the necessary details of the assignments you must submit to
your tutor for assessment. The marks you get from these assignments will form part of
your final assessment in this course.

Assessment

There are two aspects to the assessment of the course. First are the tutor-marked
assignments; secondly, there is a written examination. In tackling the assignments,

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

you are expected to apply information and knowledge acquired during this course. The
assignments must be submitted to your tutor for assessment in accordance with the
deadlines stated in the Assignment File. The work you submit to your tutor for
assessment will count for 30% of your total course mark. At the end of the course, you
will need to sit for a final three-hour examination. This will also count for 70% of your
total course mark.

Tutor-Marked Assignment

There are twenty tutor-marked assignments in this course. You need to submit four
assignments out of which the best three will be used for your assessment. These three
assignments shall make 30% of your total course mark. Assignment questions for the
units in this course are contained in the Assignment File. You should be able to
complete your assignments from the information and materials contained in your set
textbooks, reading and study units.

However, you are advised to use other references to broaden your viewpoint and
provide a deeper understanding of the subject. When you have completed each
assignment, send it, together with TMA (tutor-marked assignment) file to your tutor.
Make sure that each assignment gets to your tutor on or before the deadline. And in
case you are unable to complete your work on time, contact your tutor or better-still
your study centre manager (overseer) before the submission deadline of assignments
lapses to discuss the possibility of an extension.

Final Examination and Grading

The final examination of CSS 244 shall be of three hours’ duration and have a value of
70% of the total course grade. The examination shall consist of questions which reflect
the type of self-testing, practice exercises and tutor-marked problems you have come
across. All areas of the course will be assessed. You are advised to revise the entire
course after studying the last unit before you sit for the examination. You will find it
useful to review your tutor-marked assignments and the comments of your tutor on
them
before the final examination.

Course Marking Scheme

This table shows how the actual course marking is broken down.
Assessment Marks
Assignment 1 – 4 Four Assignments are to be submitted,
out of which the three best shall be
considered at 10% each, making 30% of
the overall scores
Final Examination 70% of overall course marks
Total 100% of course marks

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Table 1: Course Making Scheme

Course Overview

This table brings together the entire units contained in this course, the number of
weeks it takes to complete them, and the assignments that follow them.

Unit Title Week’s Assessment (end of

Activity Unit)
Course Guide 1
1 Meaning & Types of Security Threat 1 Assignment 1
2 Basic Human or Manmade Threats 2 Assignment 2
3 Terrorism as a Security Threat and 2 Assignment 3
Individual Protective Measures
4 War as a Security Threat 3 Assignment 4
5 Information Warfare as a Security 4 Assignment 5
Threat
6 Analysis of Geological Security 5 Assignment 6
Threat/Hazards I
7 Analysis of Geological Security 6 Assignment 7
Threat/Hazards II
8 Analysis of Climatic Security 6 Assignment 8
Threat/Hazards
9 Analysis of Environmental Security 7 Assignment 9
Threat/Hazards I
10 Analysis of Environmental Security 7 Assignment 10
Threat/Hazards II
11 Basic Types of Security I 8 Assignment 11
12 Basic Types of Security II 9 Assignment 12
13 Basic Types of Security III 10 Assignment 13
14 Civil Security Approaches to Threat 11 Assignment 14
Mitigation I
15 Civil Security Approaches to Threat 11 Assignment 15
Mitigation II
16 Risk: Meaning, Psychology & 12 Assignment 16
Analysis
17 Vulnerability and Capacity 13 Assignment 17
Assessment
18 Simulation in Law Enforcement 14 Assignment 18
19 Crime Analysis: Meaning and 15 Assignment 19
Importance to Crime Mitigation
20 Applying Data Mining & Automated 16 Assignment 20
Data Analysis for Crime Management
21 Revision 17

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

22 Examination 18
Table 2: Course Overview
Presentation Schedule

The Presentation Schedule included in your course materials gives you the important
dates for the completion of tutor-marked assignments and attendance at tutorials.
Remember, you are required to submit all your assignments by the due date. You
should guard against falling behind in your work.

How to Get the Best from this Course

In distance learning the study units replace the university lecturer. This is one of the
great advantages of distance learning; you can read and work through specially
designed study materials at your own pace, and at a time and place that suits you best.
Think of it as reading the lecture instead of listening to a lecturer. In the same way that
a lecturer might set you some reading to do, the study units tell you when to read your
set of books or other materials. Just as a lecturer might give you an in-class exercise,
your study units provide exercises for you to do at appropriate points. Each of the study
units follows a common format. The first item is an introduction to the subject matter
of the unit and how a particular unit is integrated with the other units and the course as
a whole. Next is a set of learning objectives. These objectives shall let you know what
you should be able to do by the time you have completed the unit. You should use these
objectives to guide your study. When you have finished, the units you must go back
and check whether you have achieved the objectives. If you make a habit of doing this
you will significantly improve your chances of passing the course. The main body of
the unit guides you through the required reading from other sources.

Reading Section

Remember that your tutor’s job is to assist you. When you need help, don’t hesitate to
call and ask your tutor to provide it.

1. Read this Course Guide thoroughly.

2. Organize a study schedule. Refer to the ‘Course overview’ for more details. Note the time you are expected to spend
on each unit and how the assignments related to the units.
Whatevermethod youchosetouse,youshould decideon and
writeinyourowndatesforworkingoneachunit.

3. Onceyouhavecreatedyourownstudyschedule,doeverythingyoucantosticktoit.Themajorreasonthatstudents failis
that they get behind with their course work. If you get into
difficulties with your schedule, please let your tutor know before
itistoolateforhelp.

4. Turn to Unit 1 and read the introduction and the objectives for the unit.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

5. Assemble the study materials. Information about what you need for a unit is given
in the ‘Overview’ at the beginning of each unit. You will almost always need both the
study unit you are working on and one of your set books on your desk at the same
time.

6. Work through the unit. The content of the unit itself has been arranged to provide a
sequence for you to follow. As you work through the unit you will be instructed to
read sections from your set books or other articles. Use the unit to guide your reading.

7. Review the objectives for each study unit to confirm that you have achieved them.
If you feel unsure about any of the objectives, review the study material or consult
your tutor.

8. When you are confident that you have achieved a unit’s objectives, you can then
start on the next unit. Proceed unit by unit through the course and try to pace your
study so that you keep yourself on schedule.

9. When you have submitted an assignment to your tutor for marking, do not wait for
its return before starting on the next unit. Keep to your schedule. When the
assignment is returned, pay particular attention to your tutor’s comments, both on the
Tutor-Marked
Assignment form and also on what is written on the assignment. Consult your tutor as
soon as possible if you have any questions or problems.

10. After completing the last unit, review the course and prepare yourself for the
final examination. Check that you have achieved the unit objectives (listed at the
beginning of each unit) and the course objectives (listed in this Course Guide).

Facilitators/Tutors and Tutorials

There are between eight and 12 hours of tutorials provided in support of this course.
The dates, time and venue of these tutorials shall be communicated to you. The name
and phone number of your tutor will be made known to you immediately you are
allocated a tutorial group. Your tutor will mark and comment on your assignments,
keep a close watch on your progress and on any difficulties you might encounter and
provide assistance to you during the course. You must mail your tutor marked
assignments to your tutor well before the due date (at least two working days are
required). They will be marked by your tutor and returned to you as soon as possible.
Do not hesitate to contact your tutor by telephone, e-mail, or discussion board if you
need help. You will definitely benefit a lot by doing that. Contact your tutor if:

+ you do not understand any part of the study units or the assigned readings;
+ you have difficulty with the self-tests or exercises; and
+ you have a question or problem with an assignment, with your tutor’s
comments on an assignment or with the grading of an assignment.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

You should make an effort to attend the tutorials. Thus, it is the only opportunity you
have to enjoy face to face contact with your tutor and to ask questions which are
answered instantly. You can raise any problem encountered in the course of your
study. To gain the maximum benefit from course tutorials, prepare a question list
before attending them. You will learn a lot from participating in discussion activity.

Summary

CSS 244: Types and Analysis of Security Threats aims to expose the reader or student
to the meaning and types and categories of security threats as well as how to explain
different approaches and techniques through which threats can be mitigated or
controlled. As you complete this course, you should be able to answer the following
questions:

•• Conceptualise the term security threat;

•• Identify various security threats;
•• Classify or categorise various security threats;
•• Discuss the meaning and types of various human or man-made security threats;
•• Examine various manmade security threats;
•• Explain the meaning and types of geological security threats;
•• Examine climatic security threats;
•• Analyse environmental threats;
•• Explore how the various types of security threats pose a danger to any people
or community;
•• Propose measures and approaches that aid in mitigating or reducing the
occurrence of different security threats;
•• Unravel the importance of civil security approaches to threat mitigation and
crime control;
•• Elaborate the relevance of the study of risk psychology and analysis in threat
mitigation and crime reduction;
•• Illuminate on how simulation exercise can contribute to threat reduction and
law enforcement;
•• Investigate the significance of crime analyse in threat mitigation and crime
management; and
•• Verify how data mining and automated data analyses can serve important tools
to crime detection, control and threat mitigation.

Good luck in your studies at the National Open University of Nigeria.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

CSS 244 TYPES AND ANALYSIS OF SECURITY THREATS

Course Developer/Writer Monsuru Adegboyega Kasali

Non-Violence and Intercultural Communication
Advocacy Initiatives, Ibadan, Nigeria

Course Editor Adewole Akinyemi Atere, Ph.D

College of Management & Social Sciences
Osun State University

Course Coordinator Adeniyi Adegoke, Ph.D

Criminology and Security Studies
School of Arts and Social Sciences
National Open University of Nigeria

Programme Leader Prof. Abdul-Rasheed Yesufu

Dean, School of Arts and Social Sciences
National Open University of Nigeria

15
CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

NATIONAL OPEN UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA

National Open University of Nigeria

Headquarters
14/16 Ahmadu Bello Way
Victoria Island
Lagos

Abuja Office
No. 5 Dar es Salam Street
Off Aminu Kano Crescent
Wuse II, Abuja
Nigeria

e-mail: [email protected]
URL: www.nou.edu.ng

Published by

National Open University of Nigeria

Printed

ISBN:

All Rights Reserved

16
CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

CONTENT PAGE

Module 1 CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF SECURITY THREATS AND

TYPES OF SECURITY THREATS (MANMADE) ............................ 1

Unit 1: Meaning & Types of Security Threat....................................................... 1

Unit 2: Basic Human or Manmade Threats .......................................................... 8
Unit 3: Terrorism as a Security Threat and Individual Protective Measures ....... 23
Unit 4: War as a Security Threat ....................................................................... 36
Unit 5: Information Warfare as a Security Threat .............................................. 46

Module 2 ANALYSIS OF NON-HUMAN SECURITY THREATS ................... 54

Unit 1: Analysis of Geological Security Threat/Hazards I ................................. 54

Unit 2: Analysis of Geological Security Threat/Hazards II ................................ 68
Unit 3: Analysis of Climatic Security Threat/Hazards ....................................... 79
Unit 4: Analysis of Environmental Security Threat/Hazards I ........................... 95
Unit 5: Analysis of Environmental Security Threat/Hazards II ....................... 107

Module 3 TYPES OF SECURITY AND APPROACHES TO THREAT

MITIGATION ................................................................................... 118

Unit 1: Basic Types of Security I.................................................................... 118

Unit 2: Basic Types of Security II .................................................................. 128
Unit 3: Basic Types of Security III ................................................................. 138
Unit 4: Civil Security Approaches to Threat Mitigation I ............................... 149
Unit 5: Civil Security Approaches to Threat Mitigation II .............................. 161

Module 4 MEASURES FOR THREAT MANAGEMENT ............................... 172

Unit 1: Risk: Meaning, Psychology & Analysis.............................................. 172

Unit 2: Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment .............................................. 185
Unit 3: Simulation in Law Enforcement ......................................................... 196
Unit 4: Crime Analysis: Meaning and Importance to Crime Mitigation ........... 206
Unit 5: Applying Data Mining and Automated Data Analysis for Crime
Management ........................................................................................ 217

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

MODULE 1: CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF SECURITY THREATS AND

TYPES OF SECURITY THREATS (MANMADE)

Unit 1: Meaning & Types of Security Threats

Unit 2: Basic Human or Manmade Threats
Unit 3: Terrorism as a Security Threat and Individual Protective Measures
Unit 4: War as a Security Threat
Unit 5: Information Warfare as a Security Threat

UNIT 1

MEANING & TYPES OF SECURITY THREATS

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Security Threat
3.2 Types of Security Threats
3.2.1 Geological Threat/Hazards
3.2.2 Climatic Threats/Hazards
3.3.3 Environmental Hazard
3.3.4 Human Threats
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 Summary
6.0 Tutor Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

The meaning of security has been generating a great debate among scholars in recent
time. The experience of the world in recent time emphasises a paradigm shift in
security discourse. Traditionally, the State is the custodian and ultimate beneficiary of
the monopoly use of violence as advocated by Max Weber. Any internal or external
threat to challenging the authority of the State in monopolising violence was
considered as a security threat.

During the Westphalia period, the major threat to the political sovereignty of any State
usually emanated from another State. During that period, the threat to security usually
involved state to state aggression, as there was little or no presence of intra-state
violence. But, since the emergence of the Cold War in 1945, the main challenge
against state has been internal threat to security where most countries became plagued
with insurgency and civil wars as experienced all over the world. The end of the Cold

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

War in 1989 has widened the scope of security studies due to the emergence of states
without any defined political boundaries.

However, this is evident in the enormous political sovereignty enjoyed by international

terrorist networks, which have created their own governments, standing armies and
other features of a modern state except defined geographical boundaries. The authority
of these non-state actors is not limited by geographical boundary as their influence
extends to several continents and they have become a major source of threat not only
to national security but also to world security.

The recent experience shows that major threats often come from other sources other
than the state actors. The role of resource scarcity in undermining the general security
and challenging the political sovereignty of any nation draws our attention to the
amount of threat that poverty and deprivation can pose to security in any community or
state. In this unit, we shall define the term security threat and briefly explain various
types of threat.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Explain the meaning of security threat;

• Identify types of threat; and

• Explain forms of natural and human threats.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Security Threat

Waever (1995) associates the concept of security threat to security problems that
undermine the security of any nation or community, and relates it to:

...developments that threaten the sovereignty or independence of a state in a

particularly rapid or dramatic fashion, and deprive it of the capacity to manage by
itself. This, in turn, undercuts the political order. Such a threat must therefore be met
with the mobilization of the maximum effort (Waever, 1995: 54).

Similarly, security threat can be described as capacity of any human and non-human
elements to destroy the vital interests of other considered as targets. We can also
describe security threat as:

...a party with the intent and capability to exploit a vulnerability in an asset. This could
be a malicious hacker or a disgruntled employee :/ /proxy.11a.nu/2006 /02/
11/definition-of-risk-vulnerability-and-threat).

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...an explicit or implicit message from a person to another that the first will cause
something bad to happen to the other, often except when certain demands are met.
Often a weapon is used. Examples are a robbery, kidnapping, hijacking, extortion,
blackmail (://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Threat).

...anything that threatens the residents of a community or the things they value
(Gordon, 2000).

...persons, things, events, or ideas, which pose accidentally or deliberately some

degree or danger to an asset. (US National Institute of Standards and Technology
cited in Kuban & MacKenzie-Carey, 2001).

Dissecting the foregoing definitions of the term security threat, you will conclude that
security threat covers all aspects of any malicious intention or action or occurrence
geared towards making a party vulnerable and exposed to security risk. Security threat
can be simply divided into two, namely natural and manmade threats. The former are
usually generated by nature while the latter involve cruel attacks arising from human
actions and behaviour. The manmade threats involve malicious activities of man,
which may include armed robbery, assassination, computer intrusion, information
hacking and corruption, violent behaviour, ethnocentrism, religious bigotry, terrorism,
to mention a few.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you describe the term security threat?

3.2 Types of Security Threats

As explained earlier, security threats can be classified into two namely natural and
manmade threats. Natural threats can further be divided into two: minor and major.
Examples of major natural threats may include hurricane (cyclone), earthquake,
drought and flood. And those natural threats or hazards considered to be minor may
include cold wave, storm, mudslide, thunderstorms, to mention a few. In this study for
the sake of conceptual and analytic clarity, we shall be explaining the natural threats by
dividing them into two due to different conditions, and they shall be classified as
geological security threats and climatic security threats.

On the other hand, manmade threats usually involve those threats or hazards that are
brought into bear resulting from human actions (deliberately or accidentally). These
threats may include terrorism, different forms of crime, mob action, kidnapping,
among others. The third type of security threat may include all forms of environmental
threat or hazard. At this point, let us present these various types of security threats one
after the other.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security
Threats 3.2.1 Geological Threat/Hazards

Geological threats or hazards are basically natural geologic phenomena, which can
potentially pose a huge security risk to human lives, as they are not only capable of
causing various degrees of bodily harms to people but can also cause (mass) deaths.
They can also bring on any communities or people large-scale destruction of physical
structures and infrastructure. Thus, geological threats or hazards can be simply defined
as:

...extreme natural events in the crust of the earth that pose a threat to life and
property, for example, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis (tidal waves) and
landslides (://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1112).

As highlighted in the foregoing, the hazardous processes any communities that can
pose a danger to people and their environments may include earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, flooding, mudflows, tsunamis to mention a few. It is also important to note
that the set of threats cannot be easily detected as they largely remain unpredictable.

Though, through hazard mapping and monitoring, we can determine the locations or
areas that are susceptible to the various kinds of natural threats that exist in this class of
threats but, we may not have accurate prediction of the time that these hazards may
occur in any place. For this reason, it is usually advisable to identify the kinds of
natural hazards that may exist in our communities. For instance, those areas or
settlements that lie along the seismic lines, there is possibility that they will experience
earthquake at one time or the other. It is paramount for the people found in such
locations to erect their physical structures in a way that they will be resistant to the
vibration that is usually produced by the quake.

3.2.2 Climatic Threats/Hazards

Climatic threats or Hazards are simply those types of threat that involve a rapid
change in the climatic conditions, capable of posing a danger to the wellbeing and
survival of any people or communities. They are natural threats that are usually
created by:

...a severe variation from average climatic conditions which cause problems for the
people living in the area affected (://www.geography-help.co.uk/powerpoints
/human_activities_ctwm_monsoon.ppt).

Climatic hazards are actually created by one or a combination of factors which may
include heavy rainfall, droughts, wildfires, among others. Climatic hazards basically
include hurricane, flood and drought. It is important to avoid mistaking climatic
problem for climate hazard. For instance, drought can be regarded as a climatic hazard
where there is usually regular experience of rainfall because rapid reduction in the
volume of rainfall in such a settlement or place can be considered as hazardous. And in
desert area or arid settlement, the incidence of drought is usually viewed as climatic

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problem rather than hazard because people found in such an area or settlement are used
to dry weather with very little prospect for rainfall.

Meanwhile, human activities such as deforestation among other anthropogenic factors

can also contribute to the occurrence of these climatic hazards. For instance, continued
emission of greenhouse gases notably carbon dioxide into the atmosphere has been a
leading factor to the problem of climate change with devastating consequences on man
and his/her environment.

3.3.3 Environmental Hazard

Environmental Hazards are types of threat, which usually involve entrapment of the
environment with various forms of pollution like bush burning, reckless removal of
trees, use of chemicals among others. There is no doubt that environmental hazards
constitute a huge security risk to any people or community. These hazards can generate
such devastating situations as air pollution, water pollution as well as soil
contamination.

Anthropogenic factors are chiefly responsible for various environmental pollutions

that generate different environmental hazards. The consequences of these hazards can
be very severe and unpleasant to any people because apart from the adverse effects
that it may have on people’s health and wellbeing, it can also bring the economy of
affected communities to its knees, creating an atmosphere of economic
underdevelopment.

3.3.4 Human Threats

Human threats are basically any intentional criminal actions like terrorism,
kidnapping robbery, theft, etc. They also include any other unintentional actions that
may pose security risk to any people or communities such as careless handling of
information files, among others. When we talk about information technology (IT) one
of the issues that come to our minds is the growing risk emanating from the activities
of hackers and other people that engage in malicious entry into information systems.
In view of this, several human activities can pose a threat not only to the wellbeing of
the people but can also propel physical, infrastructural and information damages or
destructions.

Undoubtedly, the activities of disloyal employees can rapidly effect the collapse of
any corporations if adequate mitigation measures are not put in place to check the
mischief of such workers. Apart from the normal criminal actions, human beings
have also been accused of being responsible for the invocation of most of the natural
threats. For instance, variability in climate conditions is normal but human emission
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has rapidly led to drastic and significant
change in the world climate, putting biodiversity into quandary.

The challenges confronting mankind resulting from climate change are enormous
leading to growing reduction in the volume of rainfall and resource scarcity, to
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mention a few. There are some other forms of security threat that we may not be
covering in this course. It is, therefore, important to engage in further reading to
identify other types of threat not discussed in the material.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Discuss various types of threat.

4.0 CONCLUSION

It is a truism that the capacity of any community to respond to hazardous situations

depends largely on its resilience and preparedness towards risk reduction and hazard
mitigation. The recovery capacity of any community, wishing to mitigate the effect
that the occurrence of any hazard may have on her and its people, must be substantial
enough to withstand the threat or hazard. If no efforts are made to mitigate or reduce
the impact of hazard or attack, there is the possibility that such hazard will result in
disaster. It is therefore necessary for stakeholders to adopt strategies through which
they can improve their capacity to respond to hazardous situations timely and
effectively. A fact that comes out of this intellectual standpoint is that disaster does not
usually occur where vulnerability is low or absent.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we began our journey into the course (Types and Analysis of Security
Threats) by examining the meaning of security threats. Thereafter, our focus was
shifted to various classes of security threats such as geological threats/hazards, climatic
threats/hazards, environmental threats as well as human or manmade threats. We also
observed that there are other classes of security threats that we may not able to cover in
this material, as the reader or student is admonished to source for other relevant
materials that can help them identify some other types of threat not discussed in this
course. In the next four units, we shall be beaming our searchlight on some of the
threats that can be considered as manmade while other classes of security threats will
be discussed in the next module.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Explain the meaning and any four types of security threats.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Gordon, J. (2000). Risk Assessment and Management in Local Government

Emergency Planning, Part 1: Basic concepts. Canadian Journal of Emergency
Management 2(2): 11-12.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

US National Institute of Standards and Technology cited in Kuban, R. & MacKenzie-

Carey, H. (2001). Community-Wide Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment. Office of
Critical Infrastructure Protection and Emergency Preparedness, Canada.

Waever, Ole (1995). Securitization and Desecuritization. In: Lipschutz, R.D (ed.). On
Security. New York: Columbia University Press. 46-86.

://proxy.11a.nu/2006 /02/ 11/definition-of-risk-vulnerability-and-threat). Retrieved on

30 August, 2009.

://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1112. Retrieved on 14 November, 2009.

://www.geography-help.co.uk/powerpoints/human_activities_ctwm_monsoon.ppt.
Retrieved on 20 November, 2009.

://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Threat. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

UNIT 2

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BASIC HUMAN OR MANMADE SECURITY THREATS

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Robbery
3.2 Theft
3.3 Arson
3.4 Kidnapping
3.5 Badger Game
3.6 Extortion
3.7 Insurgency
3.8 Strike Action
3.9 Assassination
3.10 Demonstration
3.11 Mob Action
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

In the last unit, our study centred on the meaning of security threat, and we also
explained various forms of threats including geological threats, climatic threats,
environmental threats and human or man-made threats. In furtherance of our study on
these different classes of threats, we shall beam our search light on various types of
threats contained in each class of security threats by exploring their meaning and how
they can constitute a danger to any people or communities. In this unit, we shall be
focusing on human or man-made threats by exploring some of the basic types of man-
made threats and showing how they can pose security risk.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Identify major manmade types of security threat,

• Discuss the meaning of the various manmade security threats; and

• Explain the characteristics of these threats and how they constitute security risk
to any community.
3.0 MAIN BODY

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

3.1 Robbery

One of the manmade threats is robbery, and robbery often involves the use of
instruments of intimidation and coercion by a party(ies) against another party(ies) with
the aim of compelling the victim party to concede his/her property in question to the
offender party. Such violent instruments like gun, knife, sword, cutlass, grenade, or any
other dangerous objects as the case may be, are often used by robbers to force the
victims to yield to their (robbers’) demand. There are many definitions of robbery,
some of which include the following:

Robbery is the crime of seizing property through violence or intimidation. This is

different from embezzlement, larceny, and theft. Piracy is a type of robbery. Armed
robbery involves the use of a weapon. Highway robbery takes place outside and in a
public place. Robbery is generally an urban crime. Carjacking is the act of robbing a
car from a victim, usually at gunpoint (://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/
encyclopedia/Robbery).

Robbery is the crime of seizing property through violence or intimidation

(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robbery).

Robbery is taking or attempting to take something of value from another by violence or

the threat of violence. Robbery can be committed against individuals, businesses, and
institutions like banks. It is a felony in all states. Threatening people on the streets with
a baseball bat and demanding all their money and jewellery is robbery, even if the
person is not injured. Pushing an elderly woman down on the sidewalk to steal her
purse is also robbery (://criminal-law.freeadvice.com/violent_crimes/offenses _
robbery.htm).

Robbery is a regular feature of every human society, even among the animals, robbery
takes place. For instance, in some wildlife clips, we may see some hyenas hunting
some preys and eventually they may succeed in catching some of these preys like
antelopes. But, shortly after the catch, we may see a group of lions larger in number
emerging from nowhere chasing away the poor hyenas and rob them of their catches
(animals killed by the hyenas for feeding). This example nevertheless shows that the
incidence of robbery is not limited to human beings but it also exists in animal
kingdom.

Types of robbery

a) Piracy: This is one of the types of robbery. But, we need to exercise some
caution in the conceptualisation of the concept of piracy. This is because in
intellectual property and copyrights law, the term piracy is also used to describe
the nefarious activities of offenders who steal the works of other people
especially for money-making motives. However, the piracy we are discussing
in this study or lesson is essentially maritime. The term piracy is

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

described in the relevant provisions of the United Nations Convention on the

Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982 as:

(a) any illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depredation,

committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or a
private aircraft, and directed:
(i) on the high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or
property on board such ship or aircraft;
(ii) against a ship, aircraft, persons or property in a place outside the
jurisdiction of any State;
(b) any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a ship or of an aircraft
with knowledge of facts making it a pirate ship or aircraft;
(c) any act of inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act described in
subparagraph (a) or (b) (UNCLOS, 1982: Article 101).

Piracy usually involves a very violent act perpetrated by private parties of no

government affiliation. Piracy is a violent crime and robbery which takes place
on the seas. A good example includes the nefarious activities of Somalian
criminals or pirates who rob and seize ships on the sea, a situation which has
attracted so much public attention in recent time. Piracy is a form of robbery
that involves all violent acts perpetrated on the seas but it does not include
those criminal activities being perpetrated by some passengers against some
other passengers on the same vessel. The phenomenon of piracy is new but has
been an agelong security threat, which in the 17th and 18th centuries attracted
death penalty against the offenders. During these periods in Europe, pirates
caught and arrested were paraded before the public and later subjected to public
execution;

b) Car-snatching or Carjacking: This is another type of robbery that has been

phenomenal in a number of countries including South Africa, the US, Sweden,
Nigeria, among others. It can be described as the act of forcefully seizing and
taking possession of the victim’s car by the crime offender through the use of
dangerous weapons especially gun. We can also define this form of robbery as:

...an armed auto theft, or auto theft by threat or force from a person (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.).

...the crime of motor vehicle theft from a person who is present. Typically the
carjacker is armed, and the driver of the car is forced out of the car at gun
point (://ww.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Carjacking).

In some situations, the car-snatcher may use toy gun to force the victim (carry
owner or driver) out of the car. If the offender is arrested, he/she will still be
liable to be charged for armed robbery because he/she, by using gun either toy
or real, intends to cause fear or intimidation on the victim with the aim of
criminally seizing and/ or stealing the car from the victim. In South Africa, the

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

incidence of car snatching is very high, and in the process of stealing cars from
victims, many victims have not only lost their cars but also their lives or lives
of co-occupants (or loved ones) or sustained various degrees of injury in the
hands of car-snatchers.

Car-snatching often generates trauma among the victims. For instance, some
years ago, a popular reggae artist, Lucky Dube was killed by a gang of car-
snatchers in South Africa in the presence of his children. Can you imagine the
amount of trauma suffered by the children, seeing their father and breadwinner
being hunted down by some criminals in the name of car-snatching? The Shina-
Rambo episode in Nigeria is still very fresh in the memories of many of us who
knew the amount of security threat the car-snatching syndicate posed to our
national security. The leader of the syndicate, Amani Tijani has been arrested
and currently facing trial in Nigeria.

More importantly, one is expected to know that there is a difference between

ordinary car theft and car-snatching. The truth of the matter is that not all
incidents of car theft can be regarded as car-snatching or carjacking. This is
because there may be occasions whereby cars will be stolen from where they
are parked. In this case, cars are stolen without forcefully taking them from the
drivers. Here, the car thieves carefully remove and steal the cars from where
they are parked or by deceiving the car drivers or owners. This kind of crime
can only be regarded to as car theft not car-snatching or carjacking;

c) Streaming: This is another of robbery that usually involves organised criminal

activities being perpetrated on underground trains. The term is made popular by
the United Kingdom, used to describe the violent crimes perpetrated on train or
bus passengers by criminal gangs (see ://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/698
3476.stm; & ://www.btp.presscentre.com/Content/Detail.asp?Release ID=6
75&NewsAreaID=2). The crime ranges from mild application of intimidation
and violence to the use of serious violence like rape, assault and murder;

d) Highway robbery: Highway robbery can also be regarded as a great threat to

security. It can be simply described as a kind of robbery that takes place on the
roads, streets, or even bridges. This threat is often experienced by many
commuters using Nigerian roads. Meanwhile, there are some hotspots where
the incidence of highway robbery frequently takes place. One of such spots is
Abuja-Lokoja road where several passengers and travellers have been robbed
or/and injured or/and killed by suspected highway robbers. A pathetic case was
the incident of highway robbery that happened recently where many victim
passengers were crushed to death by on-coming trailer, which was on top speed
while trying to avoid being pinned-down by the robbers. The ugly incident
happened when the victim passengers were asked by the robbers to lie face
down, and many of the victims never suspected that the trailer approaching
would crush them.

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e) Armed robbery: This is another type of robbery, which involves the use of
weapons. The weapons used by the robbers may not necessarily be deadly.
Take for instance, a robber may be armed with table knife to dispossess his/her
victims. Some robbers may use big sticks to force their victims to surrender
their valuables. In armed robbery, the weapons used by robbers may not be
actually deadly. Some robbers may use their physical strength to dispossess
their victims (especially the female) of their valuables. Such action may still be
regarded as armed robbery; and

f) Aggravated robbery: Aggravated robbery actually means a form of robbery

where the offenders use deadly or dangerous weapons in the course of carrying-
out their dastardly act. Aggravated robbery can also be defined as:

....the use of a deadly weapon or what appears to be a deadly weapon. If

someone robs a store with a toy pistol, that will still be aggravated robbery,
because the weapon appeared to be deadly. It is also aggravated robbery in
some states to cause or threaten serious bodily injury or death during the
commission of the robbery (://criminal-law.freeadvice.com/violent_
crimes/offenses_ robbery. htm).

The experience in recent time has shown the high level lethality in the weapons
being used by some robbers in carrying out their dastardly acts. The incidents
of bank robbery have taken very aggravated dimension where robbers do not
only use sophisticated riffles but also use grenades. The warlike situation that
characterises bank robbery in Nigeria in contemporary time underscores the
need to appreciate security reengineering and reformulation of security
strategies.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the meaning of robbery.

Discuss any five types of robbery.

3.2 Theft

Theft can be said to be a form of manmade security threat. It actually involves act of
making unlawful claims over someone else’s property or “illegal taking of another
person’s property without the person’s freely-given consent” ( ://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Theft). Ordinarily, the term theft is used to describe some other criminal acts that
relate to illegal acquisition of another person’s property or acts of stealing like
burglary, larceny, looting, fraud and embezzlement, to mention a few. Theft can be
perpetrated in various ways. One of the ways may involve illegal access or intrusion
into information systems belonging to another person or organisation.

The acts of theft are not exclusively undertaken by individuals, organisation(s) also
can be found culpable. For instance, several organisations have been accused of
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stealing information belonging to some other organisations, may be through the use of
an insider or through direct intrusion for the actualisation of specific objectives. Theft
may also involve the unintentional stealing of another person’s property. For instance,
someone may accidentally find another person’s unused (phone) recharge card, and
rather than returning it, he/she may decide to sell or use the recharge card. In the
situation whereby the person in question decides to sell or use the recharge card, he/she
has committed theft, showing it is not always necessary for the act of theft to be
intentional. By and large, theft does not in any way involve the application of direct
force against the victim, and in a situation this happens, the act can no longer be
regarded as theft but it will be considered a robbery.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the meaning of theft as a threat to security.

3.3 Arson

Arson can be described to mean a deliberate act of destructively setting another

person’s or oneself’s property on fire for specific motives. For instance, someone can
decide to set his/her property on fire with criminal intention of illegally getting claims
from an insurance company. Meanwhile, most times this crime is perpetrated by a
party against another party. The antagonistic and destructive activities that dominate
our national politics has paved the way for the growing anarchy that the country
experience.

From one democratic dispensation to another, the incidence of arson has featured not
only in inter-party relations but also in intra-party wranglings. The use of thugs to set
fire on the houses of opponents is still experienced in Nigerian politics. For instance, in
the last re-run governorship election in Ekiti State of Nigeria saw the burning down of
the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) office in Ido Ekiti by irate
youths over the alleged manipulation of election results by the election body and few
powerful people in the state. There is no doubt that, in the country, arson constitutes a
great security threat especially if we consider the financial and material losses that
usually occasion such incident(s).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is arson?

3.4 Kidnapping

The incidence of kidnapping has become a grave security threat both locally and
internationally. Many families have lost their loved ones through the dastardly acts of
kidnapping. Apart from loss of lives, kidnapping also has implications on the economy
of the state as well as that of individuals. For instance, in countries like Mexico and
Nigeria where most kidnappings lack political motives, the kidnappers

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seize their victims for ransoms, and many families pay through their noses to settle the
kidnappers’ money requests with the aim of securing the release of their loved ones.
At this point, let us quickly look at some of the definition of the term kidnapping.
Kidnapping can be described as a form security threat that involves:

...the taking away or asportation of a person against the person's will, usually to hold
the person in false imprisonment, a confinement without legal authority. This may be
done for ransom or in furtherance of another crime, or in connection with a child
dispute (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping).

...the taking away of a person against the person's will, usually to hold the person for
ransom or in furtherance of another crime. In the terminology of the common law in
many jurisdictions, the crime of kidnapping is labelled abduction when the victim is a
woman (://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Kidnapping).

The nefarious activities of some of the militants in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria
has actually made popular kidnapping as a source of making quick money. The
problem is spreading fast to other regions of the country. There is increasing tension
in south-eastern Nigeria where the business of kidnapping is becoming widely
accepted among the youth in the area. It is most pathetic that in some circumstances,
some of the victims of kidnapping were part of the plot right from the outset. They
planned the kidnapping episode with some other criminals to get money from their
family members or/and relatives or/and friends. Many drivers have also been accused
of masterminding the kidnapping of their bosses or members of their bosses’ families.
There is no doubt that the rising incidence of kidnapping has been a major source of
worry to the security sector, especially as security personnel are not left out by
kidnappers. For instance, some practitioners have one time or the other become preys
in the hands of kidnappers. Many of these security men and officers were not lucky as
they were killed by the kidnappers.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is kidnapping?

3.5 Badger Game

Badger Game is a form of security threat that can undermine the capacity of an
individual to perform his/her duties effectively. The risk created by this threat is to
deepen the vulnerability of the affected individuals by setting him/her up. Here, the
individual like a security officer is coerced to compromise his position by tricking
him/her into a social action or activity that people will not expect persons in such
position to engage in. For instance, a very principled security chief may be trapped
with a woman, and his conversations and sexual relations with the woman are
recorded by his enemies who set him up in the first instance.

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Consequently, the enemies will approach him and ask him to compromise his position
or he will be blackmailed. This scenario reemphasises the need for security
practitioners to always be very careful in their relation with other people and avoid
engaging in any action that can tarnish their image and that of the offices they hold or
which can make them compromise their position.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you describe badger game?

3.6 Extortion

Extortion is another form of manmade security threat. It simply involves coercing a

person to part with either certain money or property or services to the offender. On
daily basis, Nigerians complain of extortion being suffered in the hands of security
operatives especially the Police. Conceptually, extortion can be described as:

...a criminal offence, which occurs when a person unlawfully obtains either money,
property or services from a person, entity, or institution, through coercion (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.).

...a criminal offence, which occurs when a person obtains money or other goods from
another by threatening or inflicting harm to his person, reputation, or property
(://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Extortion).

Extortion occurs not only in public places but also in private establishments. Many
people in the course of seeking for job are mandated to pay money or render some
services against their will before they can secure employment. The commuters always
accuse the police of extortion on our roads and even in their stations despite the
prevailing anti-corruption campaign in the country. Many customs officials have failed
to do their jobs effectively well because of their culture of extortion. They are basically
preoccupied with extorting the public, and in the process they often fail to perform
their responsibilities. And one of the consequences of this failure is circulation of
proliferated weapons in the country, which came in through the borders.

The culture of extortion has continued to paint the security sector in Nigeria in bad
light, as the most needed cooperation from the public in the effective management of
security is visibly lacking. One of the reasons is the fear of being extorted by security
operatives, even when they (the civilians) wish to offer or provide important
information to the security personnel for crime prevention and mitigation. There are
several allegations that some individuals, after offering vital security information to
the police, were arrested and threatened with violence and prosecution, until the
affected innocent civilians were forced to settle the extortionist security men/officers
with varying amount of money. It is most disturbing to hear cases where some security
personnel demand for sex from their female victims before they could be released
from unlawful detention.

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The writer can remember when in company of a friend, being intercepted by an anti-
robbery patrol team before 8pm when there was no case of curfew, and subsequently
arrest was effected without any genuine reason. At the station, the patrol team had
arrested, in similar circumstances, scores of innocent civilians and ordered everybody
into the cell without any investigation. The next thing we heard was that we should
beg those whose relatives had come to pay for their release, to assist us to get in touch
with our relatives or friends to come and negotiate our own release as well. Within a
short time of the arrest, some neighbours of mine who saw me and my friend being
whisked away by the criminals in uniform came to the station to pay for my release
but I refused to succumb, requesting to see the Divisional Police Officer (DPO) of that
station.

Consequently, I stayed there till the next morning but not without being assaulted by
one of the policemen on duty. One of the inmates appealed to me to give peace a
chance by accepting the terms of release (paying illegal money as bail). And through
so much pressure from my neighbours, I gave in. To my greatest surprise, one of the
policemen told me that it was a nice decision, accepting the terms of my release.
Money was forcefully taken by the police to secure my release and that of my friend.
The policeman went further to say that if I had insisted to settle the case in court, he
was very sure, due to lackadaisical and ineffective justice system in the country, that
the court would ask us to be remanded in prison, even without making attempt to find
out if the arrest was a lawful one in the first instance. Unfortunately, the experience of
most civilians, resulting from official and unofficial extortion by security operatives in
the country undermines the integrity and capacity of the public security sector in
fulfilling the overall goals of their establishment particularly the security of lives and
property of the citizens.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Describe extortion as a security threat.

3.7 Insurgency

Insurgency is another form of manmade security threat. It usually involves an armed

struggle or rebellion aimed to challenge the sovereign power of a constituted authority.
It can also be described as violent aggression by belligerents against the government of
any given country, especially the one recognised by the United Nations (see Oxford
English Dictionary, 1989). However, we can also define insurgency as:

...an organized rebellion aimed at overthrowing a constituted government through the

use of subversion and armed conflict (://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn).

...an armed uprising, revolt, or insurrection against an established civil or political

authority. Persons engaging in insurgency are called insurgents, and typically engage
in regular or guerrilla combat against the armed forces of the established regime, or

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

conduct sabotage and harassment in the land (://www.answerbag.com/q_view/68

079).

Some of the causes of insurgency may include electoral malpractices as experienced in

Algeria, ethno-religious conflict, human rights abuse, personal envy,
maladministration, ineffective justice system, to mention a few. The problem of
insurgency has been a regular feature of African politics due to a number of reasons.
One of the reasons is the sharp ethnic division that exists among various ethnic
groups, which compose an average African state. This problem is prevalent where
there is deepened economic deprivation and patron-client network. In such a country,
the elite are often accused of flying the kite of ethnicity in the accumulation of state
resources thereby creating a culture of ethnic hatred as evident in the Rwandan crisis.

The ideological rivalry between the Angolan government and the National Union for
the Total Liberation of Angola (UNITA) rebel led by late J. Savimbi especially during
the cold war era has also shown how ideological differences can attract insurgency in
any given state. There is no doubt that most insurgent groups use instrument and tactic
of terror to attract public attention to themselves. And most times, methods applied by
insurgents do not only undermine the security of lives and property, but they also
infringe on the natural rights of the innocent civilians and dislocate them socially and
economically.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you explain insurgency as a security threat?

3.8 Strike Action

Strike action is often described as refusal of employees to report at their workplaces

or/and refusal to discharge their respective duties in protest against poor working
conditions and/or policies of authorities or government or employers which they
consider inimical to their welfare and wellbeing. Since the period of industrial
revolution, strike action has become a veritable tool used (as the last resort) by
different unions to express their grievances and prevail on the authorities or employers
to yield to the labour demands.

Undoubtedly, strike action can potentially constitute a threat to any regime, as it can
lead to the loss of huge amount of working hours and money. For instance, the strike
embarked upon by labour unions in the early 1990s in reaction to the annulment of the
June 12, 1993 presidential election by General Babangida almost degenerated to total
collapse of socio-economic activities in Nigeria. The strike also had a devastating
effect on the political administration of the Nigerian state, as the military government
under Late General Sani Abacha resorted to carrying out unlawful arrests on the union
leaders and several human rights activists to legitimise his unconstitutional rule after
taking over from Chief Ernest Shonekan, the leader of the interim government put in

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place by General Ibrahim Babangida when he failed in his transition programme

before he relinquished his position as military leader of Nigeria.

Types of Strike

Wildcats Strikes: These are a form of strike or industrial show-down whereby workers
or employees embark on work boycott without being mandated by their respective
(labour) unions. They may decide to embark on such strikes if they consider that the
leaderships of their unions are not actually supporting their intention to force their
employers to yield to their demands through industrial action or if they suspect that
their unions have betrayed them. Wildcats strikes are often regarded as unofficial
strikes because they are embarked upon by employees without any formal
authorisation from the unions. They are capable of posing huge security risk to any
organisation or government as the employers may find it difficult to negotiate with the
striking workers because of the distance that might have been created between the
employees and their union leaderships. Thus, decisions made with the union may not
be accepted by the striking workers with little opportunity for collective bargaining.

Sit-Down Strike: This is another type of strike, which usually involves workers’
presence at their places of work but they will not perform any official duties. Here,
striking employees will only boycott their duties but not places of work.

Work-to-Rule Strike: This form of strike is known in Italy as Sciopero bianco. In this
strike, workers report for duties and perform their various tasks but they will fail to
improve on their inputs in production processes by following very strictly all safety
regulations. For instance, striking police personnel may report to their respective
duties but through this form of strike, they will not respond to any emergency calls in
the absence of operational equipment like patrol vehicles, as well as non-availability
of bullet proof vests.

Meanwhile, we may have observed that even without operational vehicles, police
patrol teams still manage to use commercial vehicles to perform their duties. But, due
to work-to-rule strike, they will insist that they will not do the patrol or emergency
intervention if there are no official vehicles. In this case, there is tendency that the
services that will be rendered by the police will be insufficient in the management of
security of lives and property in any community especially where there is no adequate
funding of the police like Nigeria.

General Strikes: These are usual strikes which involve employees acting on the
directives of their unions to embark on work boycott in their reaction to poor working
conditions and as last resort to compel the authorities or employers to yield to their
demands. General strikes also pose huge security threat to any nation or organisation
owing to the amount of time and money wasted resulting from the industrial action.
For instance, in Nigeria, no less than five hundred billion Naira must have been lost in
the last three years as a result of regular face-off between Labour Unions and
Government at all levels, leading to a series of strikes.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Sympathy Strike: It is another form of strike that is undertaken by the workers of a

union supporting the workers of another union who are on strike by refusing “to cross a
picket line established by another as a means of supporting the striking workers”
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strike_action).

Student Strike: This form of strike has impact on public image of any country rather
than its economy. Here, the students embark on boycott of lectures and other academic
activities to express their displeasure towards some of the policies of the authorities or
government. This strike action by the students is often supported by the teachers
especially if the aim of the strike is to press the authorities or government to improve
the working conditions of their teachers. Student strike can also pose a risk to the
community because such action is often followed with demonstration that may become
bloody if not maturely handled by security personnel and school authorities.

Hunger Strike: This is another form of strike, which poses very little or no threat to any
community other than the negative impact that such action may have on the image of
the community. It actually involves intentional refusal to eat to protest against some
actions of government or authorities.

Sick-out Strike : This type of strike is also known as "blue flu" strike, and it usually
involves the striking workers pretending as if they are sick as a way of refusing to
work. As you may know, there are some employees whose nature of their professions
does not permit them to go on strike. In many countries including Nigeria, police,
military, fire-fighters as well as air controllers are constitutionally barred from
embarking on strike because such action is mostly likely to generate breakdown of law
and order as well as collapse of public safety.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the meaning and types of strike action.

3.9 Assassination

Assassination is another form of manmade security threat. Etymologically, the word

Assassin emanated from the Arabic word Hashshashin. The term usually involves a
target killing of any political leader or any other person for ideological or political or
military or even economic reasons. Traditionally, assassination was synonymous to
(covert) government-sanctioned killing of any people especially the opponents for
political reasons (see ://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/mar/25/20040325-
091452-7923r).

The use of assassination by leaders has long been supported by some political
philosophers and military strategists. For instance, Sun Tzu in his book, The Art of
War lent his weight behind the use of the strategy of assassination for military purposes
while another great writer, Nicollo Machiavelli contended in his book, “The

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Prince” that assassination could be a very tactical instrument for political rulers to
retain and consolidate their grips on political power and preserve their regimes.

Assassination can also constitute a huge security threat to communities or people. The
use of assassination by any individuals or authorities can potentially undermine the
capacity of law enforcement agents in managing local and international security. For
instance, the spate of political assassinations that has greeted Nigeria in the last eight
years has nevertheless made rubbish of the ability of the Nigeria Police to guarantee
the security of lives and property of the citizens. The situation has really had a
devastating effect on the economic wellbeing of Nigerian state owing to the
demonising image that the ugly trend of political assassinations have brought on
Nigerian people. Many well-meaning Nigerians who can contribute greatly to national
growth are not willing to vie for elective positions for the fear that they may be killed
or assassinated by opponents, further complicating the problem of the nation’s
underdevelopment.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is assassination, and how does it pose a security threat?

3.10 Demonstration

Demonstration is another manmade threat that also has the tendency to pose a danger
to any community. Demonstration may also be regarded as civil disturbance or direct
action. It is often undertaken for different reasons but most times, demonstration is
politically motivated. For instance, during the military rule of General Abacha, many
human-rights and pro-democracy activists as well as several other individuals
including students staged demonstration to protest the continued detention of Chief
Moshood Abiola and continued sojourn of the military in governance.

There are two basic type of demonstration, and they are violent and non-violent
demonstrations. Violent demonstrations largely constitute huge security risk, as it can
lead to the breakdown of law and order. Violent demonstration may generate wanton
destruction of lives and property. On the other hand, non-violent demonstration
normally involves the use of peaceful approaches like strike, the use of graffiti etc.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain demonstration as a security threat.

3.11 Mob Action

Mob Action is a potential form of manmade threat. It is usually a crowd or large

gathering of people with strong emotional convictions that often lead them to act in
violent or criminal or unlawful ways. Many people have been killed through mob
actions. For instance, the bloody rivalry between United Party of Nigeria (UPN) led

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

by late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and National Party of Nigeria (NPN) led by Alhaji
Shehu Shagari and Chief Adisa Akinloye resulted in a series of mob actions in South-
western Nigeria where the supporters of these rival parties in groups violently attacked
opponents with high record of arson and killing. There is no doubt, mob action can
really undermine the security of lives and property in communities.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Describe mob action as a manmade threat.

4.0 CONCLUSION

The growing danger that many manmade threats pose to the survival of any
community has actually attracted increasing attention of various security stakeholders
and practitioners to fathom ways through which the adverse impact that manmade
security threats may have on any community can be reduced or prevented. The
advancement in world technology has further made the world unsafe and on the verge
of perpetual fear particularly resulting from the development of nuclear weapons and
other lethal substances that can decimate the population by more than 25% if they are
used. In the event of the usage of nuclear weapons by any state or non-state actors, no
less than 2.5 billion people will be affected directly or indirectly. Also, the ecosystem
will not be spared by the very destructive effect that nuclear weapon can pose to the
planet. It is against this background that many national governments and non-
governmental organisations (NGOs) through bilateral or multilateral arrangements to
discourage proliferation of weapons or the use of deadly weapons for global security.

5 . 0 SU M MA R Y

In this unit, we began our search into various manmade security threats by describing
the meaning and types of robbery. Thereafter, we discussed some other types of
manmade security threats including theft, arson, kidnapping, badger game, extortion,
among others. You are expected to note that there are several other types of manmade
security threat that we could not treat in this study due to limited time and space.
Some of these threats include corruption and embezzlement, gender discrimination,
ethnocentrism, to mention a few. You are, therefore, advised to always engage
yourself in further reading because it is difficult to have an instructional material that
will cover all areas of discourse pertaining to any course. By and large, we hope that
you have found this unit very interesting. In the next three units, we shall be focussing
on some other types of manmade threat.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Discuss any five types of manmade security threat.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

English Dictionary (1989). Second edition.

Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 10 December 1982, Part
VII: High Seas, Article 101. Also available on ://www.un.org/Depts/los/
convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part7.htm. Retrieved on 4 September, 2009.

://criminal-law.freeadvice.com/violent_crimes/offenses _ robbery.htm. Retrieved on

31 August, 2009.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 31 August, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robbery. Retrieved on 31 August, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strike_action. Retrieved on 10 November, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Theft. Retrieved on 31 August, 2009.

://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/698 3476.stm. Retrieved on 3 September, 2009.

://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn. Retrieved on 31 August, 2009.

://www.answerbag.com/q_view/68 079. Retrieved on 1 September, 2009.

://www.btp.presscentre.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=675&NewsAreaID=2.
Retrieved on 4 September, 2009.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 3 September, 2009.

://ww.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Carjacking. Retrieved on 3 September,

2009.

://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Extortion. Retrieved on 3 September,

2009.

://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Kidnapping. Retrieved on 4 Sept., 2009.

://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Robbery. Retrieved on 3 September,

2009.

://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/mar/25/20040325-091452-7923r. Retrieved
on 3 0ctober, 2009.
UNIT 3

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

TERRORISM AS A SECURITY THREAT AND INDIVIDUAL PROTECTIVE

MEASURES

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Terrorism
3.2 Aspects of Terrorism
3.2.1 Chemical Terrorism
3.2.2 Cyberterrorism
3.2.3 Bioterrorism
3.2.4 Radiological Terrorism
3.2.5 Physical Violence
3.3 Individual Protective Measures
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m mar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Terrorism is not a new concept. The term terrorism trod its semantic pathway to the
English usage in 1795. The term was popularized by the Jacobins who ruled France
between 1793 and 1794, as their reign was labelled as reign of terror. Right from
1798, the word terrorism has become a regular vocabulary to explain the attempt by
some individuals, state actors or groups to articulate their political goals and
aspirations through the application of systemic violence. Terrorism has a long history.
In the 12th century, the Assassins, a terrorist network, an Ismaili sect of Shiite Muslims
advanced some hostilities against Sunni Muslims. In 1408, John Wyclife, a theologian
escaped death but several hundreds of his followers were not lucky as they were burnt
to death. The reason was that Wyclife translated the Latin Valgate Bible into English
in a way not favourable to the doctrine of trinity.

In the aftermath of reformation; there had been a terrorist combat between the catholic
and protestant dissidents in Ireland; that culminated into the creation of the Irish
Republican Army (IRA), which grew out of the Irish civil Rights movements in the
1960s. IRA has on several occasions attacked the British civilians. It declared a cease-
fire in August 31, 1994, but resumed hostilities on 15 September 1997. In Spain,
Basques separatist organization (ETA) has carried several terrorist operations in which
more than 1000 Spaniards were killed, kidnapped or maimed. The long anarchist
tradition and instability in the Italian political system propelled the inauguration of
terrorist movements in Italy. The most notable among them was the Red Brigades

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whose terrorism activities reached a crescendo in the 1978 kidnapping and killing of
Aido Moro, a former prime minister.

In the old West Germany, Red army faction also known as the baader- Meinhof Gang
conducted series of terrorist operations both within and outside their immediate
territory. They specialized also in Bank robbery. By 1970s, the activities of terrorists
reached a descending order. The subject of terrorism much more became a global
debate due to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack where commercial aircrafts were
used as weapons of mass destruction by terrorists linked to the Al Qaeda network led
by Osama bin Laden. In this unit, we shall discuss various important issues on the
subject of terrorism as a security threat.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Describe the term terrorism;

• Discuss various forms of terrorism;

• Explain various aspects of terrorism; and

• Clarify a number of individual protective measures towards mitigation of

terrorism.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Terrorism

Conceptually, Wilkinson (1977) observes the underlying problem or dilemma which

detonates the subjective nature of terror. The “complex interplay of the subjective
forces and ...frequently irrational individual responses” (Wardlaw, 1989: 8) make the
definition of terrorism a utopian project (Wilkinson, 1977). It is often said that the use
of terror is not always characteristic of terrorism such that:

...the killing of one soldier on field of battle by another is not ‘terrorism’; the threat by
one state that it will assist another if that is attacked is not ‘terrorism’, the shooting of
a person in a store during a robbery is not ‘terrorism’. It is apparent that while these
acts can constitute terrorism, the definitional answer depends on other factors too
(Higgins, 1997: 15).

Then, what constitutes terrorism? The definitional problem of terrorism begs for more
questions than answers. Is slave trade an act of terrorism? Does a state territorial
aggression or occupation of another state constitute terrorism? Does imperial conquest
constitute terrorism? Does violence generated through ethnic nationalism and struggle
for self-determination constitute terrorism? Does the violence emanating from the

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advancement of religious fundamentalism constitute terrorism? Is application of terror

to combat terror, an act of terrorism? These questions may lead us to the question of
morality and justification of violence. However, pacifists contend that the use of terror
as a means to an end or as an end in itself is obsolete, immoral and absurd because
‘there can be no morally valid authorization to kill human beings’ (Claude, 1983: 4).
On the definition of terrorism, According to Hardman, terrorism can be defined as;

...the method or the theory behind the method whereby an organized group or party
seeks to achieve its avowed aims chiefly through the systematic use of violence
(Hardman, 1937).

...extraordinary violence. It is intended to create massive fear and involves a planned

attack for a purpose, often against something or someone. Terrorism is meant to have
an audience. The differences between various terrorist attacks involve the people,
purpose, and how it is carried out (://edhelper.com/Reading
Comprehension_33_243.html).

Terrorism is undoubtedly the systematic and ferocious use of violence, a form of

guerrilla alternative to conventional warfare by state or non-state actors, with the
strategic creation of psychic fear and (or) tactical production and reproduction of
wanton destruction in epochal dimension purposely in realizing political objectives or
ordinary public attention or both variables. There are different forms of terrorism.
According to the United States’ National Advisory Committee on Criminal Justice
Standards and Goals, the various forms of terrorism can be summarised as follows:

• Civil Disorders – A form of collective violence interfering with the peace,

security, and normal functioning of the community;

• Political Terrorism – Violent criminal behaviour designed primarily to

generate fear in the community, or substantial segment of it, for political
purposes;

• Non-Political Terrorism – Terrorism that is not aimed at political purposes

but which exhibits “conscious design to create and maintain high degree of
fear for coercive purposes, but the end is individual or collective gain rather
than the achievement of a political objective”;

• Quasi-Terrorism – The activities incidental to the commission of crimes of

violence that are similar in form and method to genuine terrorism but which
nevertheless lack its essential ingredient. It is not the main purpose of the
quasi-terrorists to induce terror in the immediate victim as in the case of
genuine terrorism, but the quasi-terrorist uses the modalities and techniques of
the genuine terrorist and produces similar consequences and reaction. For
example, the fleeing felon who takes hostages is a quasi-terrorist, whose
methods are similar to those of the genuine terrorist but whose purposes are
quite different;

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• Limited Political Terrorism – Genuine political terrorism is characterized by

a revolutionary approach; limited political terrorism refers to “acts of
terrorism which are committed for ideological or political motives but which
are not part of a concerted campaign to capture control of the State; and

• Official or State Terrorism –"referring to nations whose rule is based upon

fear and oppression that reach similar to terrorism or such proportions.” It
may also be referred to as Structural Terrorism defined broadly as terrorist
acts carried out by governments in pursuit of political objectives, often as part
of their foreign policy (National Advisory Committee on Criminal Justice
Standards and Goals, 1976).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the meaning and forms of terrorism

3.2 Aspects of Terrorism

There are several aspects of terrorism, which range from conventional ones to non-
conventional aspects. In this segment of the unit, we shall be explaining the numerous
aspects of terrorism to stimulate our better appreciation of the subject (terrorism). It is
important to know that we cannot cover every aspect of terrorism in this study due to
the dynamics of terrorism as a security threat, compelling further inquiries into its
meaning, effects, operations, among other areas of discourse by scholars. For instance,
before September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, no one could
have thought that commercial planes could be used by terrorists as weapons of mass
destruction as it became evident in that ugly phenomenon.

3.2.1 Chemical Terrorism

Chemical Terrorism is one of the aspects of terrorism. It involves the application of

chemical agents like poisonous gases, liquid or solid that may have very toxic effects
on any targeted persons and ecosystem. It can also be defined as “the use of a chemical
agent in a terrorist incident and to intentionally inflict harm upon others
(.nmmems.org/main_glossary_C.html).

The destructive nature of these chemicals can potentially result in serious injuries or
deaths of the victims and even the terrorist offender. The amount of fatality that may
accompany this form of terrorism depends largely on the type of chemical agents used
by the terrorists and the duration of the exposure. However, according to the United
States Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), these chemical agents can be
classified as:

• Blistering (Vesicant) Chemicals

o Distilled Mustard (HD)

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

o Lewisite (L)
o Mustard Gas (H)
o Nitrogen Mustard (HN-2)
o Phosgene Oxime (CX)
o Ethyldichloroarsine (ED)
o Lewisite 1 (L-1)
o Lewisite 1 (L-2)
o Lewisite 1 (L-3)
o Methyldichloroarsine (MD)
o Mustard/Lewisite (HL)
o Mustard/T
o Nitrogen Mustard (HN-1)
o Nitrogen Mustard (HN-3)
o Phenodichloroarsine (PD)
o Sesqui Mustard
• Blood Chemicals (chemicals acting on the blood)
o Arsine (SA)
o Cyanogen Chloride (CK)
o Hydrogen Chloride
o Hydrogen Cyanide (AC)
• Choking/Lung/Pulmonary Damaging Chemicals
o Chlorine (CL)
o Diphosgene (DP)
o Nitrogen Oxide (NO)
o Perflurorisobutylene (PHIB)
o Phosgene (CG)
o Red Phosphorous (RP)
o Sulfur Trioxide-Chlorosulfonic Acid (FS)
o Teflon and Perflurorisobutylene (PHIB)
o Titanium Tetrachloride (FM)
o Zinc Oxide (HC)
• Incapacitating Chemicals
o Agent 15
o BZ
o Canniboids
o Fentanyls
o LSD
o Phenothiazines
• Nerve Chemicals
o Cyclohexyl Sarin (GF)
o GE
o Sarin (GB)
o Soman (GD)
o Tabun (GA)
o VE
o VG

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

o V-Gas
o VM
o VX
• Riot Control/Tear Chemicals
o Bromobenzylcyanide (CA)
o Chloroacetophenone (CN)
o Chloropicrin (PS)
o CNB - (CN in Benzene and Carbon Tetrachloride)
o CNC - (CN in Chloroform)
o CNS - (CN and Chloropicrin in Chloroform)
o CR
o CS
• Vomiting (Emetic) Chemicals
o Adamsite (DM)
o Diphenylchloroarsine (DA)
o Diphenylcyanoarsine (DC)
• Other Industrial Chemicals (://www.medterms.com/script/main/art.asp?
articlekey=18694).

3.2.2 Cyberterrorism

Since the 1990s, computer technology has begun to attract wide acceptance and
popularity among the world population irrespective of age brackets, occupation, class,
education and gender. Computer appreciation has become an issue of interest not only
as a mechanism for information but also a subject of development. The knowledge of
Computer has become universalised such that one's literacy is also determined by
his/her ability to use computer and capacity to learn and share knowledge
electronically.

It is not surprising that most corporations and business outfits are using computers as
platforms to showcase their products to consumers and engage in all sorts of
transactions. Nevertheless, the issue of cyberterrorism has attracted growing global
concern because of the very destructive impact that it has not only on world polity but
also its capacity to undermine economy and development of any nation. Conceptually,
how do you define the term, cyberterrorism? It can simply be defined as:

...the use of information technology by terrorist groups and individuals to further their
agenda. This can include use of information technology to organize and execute
attacks against networks, computer systems and telecommunications infrastructures,
or for exchanging information or making threats electronically. Examples are hacking
into computer systems, introducing viruses to vulnerable networks, web site defacing,
Denial-of-service attacks, or terroristic threats made via electronic communication
(://www.dawn.com/weekly/dmag/archive/020616/dmag21.htm).

As computers are used to perform variety of legitimate function, some individuals and
organisations explore the use of computer to perpetrate different criminal activities

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like malicious system intrusion, virus attacks, etc. The phenomenon of cyberterrorism
has become more visible in recent time especially due to very destructive use of
information technology to cause data damage by some disgruntled or fraudulent
elements.

3.2.3 Bioterrorism

Biological terrorism or simply put, bioterrorism is another aspect of terrorism that

can have very devastating effects on any people. What is bioterrorism? According to
the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), bioterrorism can be
defined as:

...the deliberate release of viruses, bacteria, or other germs (agents) used to cause
illness or death in people, animals, or plants. These agents are typically found in
nature, but it is possible that they could be changed to increase their ability to cause
disease, make them resistant to current medicines, or to increase their ability to be
spread into the environment (quoted on ://www.hhs.gov/disasters/emergency/
manmadedisasters/bioterorism/index.html).

Bioterrorism can also be described as:

...intentional release or dissemination of biological agents (bacteria, viruses, or

toxins); these may be in a naturally-occurring or in a human-modified form
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioterrorism).

...the employment of living agents such as viruses, bacteria, and other biological toxins
to attack or intimidate societies or governments, often for political or ideological
reasons (www.pbs.org/wgbh/rxforsurvival/glossary.html)

Bioterrorism may range from contamination of products with the use of some harmful
biological agents to application of aerosolised anthrax and even a number of very
virulent biological agents like Type-A botulinal toxin, capable of decimating the
population of any target people or community. For instance, a small quantity of
botulinal toxin (BTX) can potentially kill millions of people within a short period of
time (see Jenkins and Rubins, 1978: 224). The high level of toxicity of biological
agents was captioned by Berkowitz et al. (1972):

The potency of the pathogens on a weight basis exceeds that of the most toxic
chemicals; between a few and a few thousand viable organisms is all that is required
to produce infection in many cases. Since pathogens can be prepared in concentrations
of the order of 1010 microorganisms per gram, infectious doses range downward from
0.1 microgram per target individual. The search capability of the aerosol cloud and
the fact that infectious doses are independent of victim bodyweight (because the
pathogen reproduces in the host), make the quantity of BW material needed for mass
attack quite small indeed (Berkowitz et al., 1972: VIII-54).

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Bioterrorism poses a huge threat to the security of lives of any people because of its
very virulent and destructive nature. The use of biological agents has the capacity to
cause mass deaths in any target community. It is worrisome that small quantities of
these destructive biological agents are only needed by terrorists to bring situation of
mass destruction and murder on any target people or community due to their titanic
lethality. These agents can be produced anywhere and cannot be detected easily, and
above-all, it is cheap to acquire compared to nuclear weapons.

If the argument made by a number of sources that HIV-AIDS is a product of biological

warfare is anything to go by, considering the high casualty level recorded by the
disease, we may not but agree that bioterrorism constitutes very high security risk not
only nationally but also internationally. In Africa alone, it is projected that between 90
and 100 million deaths must have been recorded by 2025 resulting from AIDS
(://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/mar/04/aids). There are various categories of
critical biological agents with varying degrees of virulence and these include:

Category A

This set of biological agents involves high-priority agents that are very destructive and
can pose huge threat to any community. Apart from their high mortality, they can be
dispersed without any (public notice). Thus, they cannot be easily detected and they
have the capacity to bring the public health of any target community to a comatose.
They include variola major (smallpox); Bacillus anthracis (anthrax);Yersinia pestis
(plague); Clostridium botulinum toxin (botulism); Francisella tularensis (tularaemia);
filoviruses etc.

Category B

This category of biological agents consists of those agents that can be considered of
having the tendency of causing less risk to any people or communities compared to
those agents contained in category A. Their level of morbidity and mortality is lower
than the biological agents in category A. It is moderately easy to disperse this
category of biological agents. Examples of these agents may include Coxiella
burnetti (Q fever); Brucella species (brucellosis); Burkholderia mallei (glanders);
alphaviruses, etc.

Category C

In this category, we have those biological agents or pathogens that can be nurtured and
they can also be dispersed easily but with high potential to cause high morbidity and
mortality. These agents can also have very devastating effects on the public health of
any target communities, and they may include Nipah virus, hanta viruses, tickborne
hemorrhagic fever viruses, tickborne encephalitis viruses, yellow fever, and
multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

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3.2.4 Radiological Terrorism

Radiological terrorism is another aspect of terrorism, which involves an act of

dispersing radiological devices with the aim of causing public panic or attacking
nuclear facilities in an attempt to undermine the security of any people or
communities. There is no doubt that radiological terrorism can pose high security risk
to any people. Though, its usage to attack nuclear facilities has been reportedly very
few, nevertheless there has been anxiety and palpable fear among the world
population about the huge threat that such attacks may bring into bear (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.). Conceptually, if terrorism can simply be defined as
act(s) of causing frightening or fear especially through systematic use of violence,
then how do we define radiological terrorism? Basically, radiological terrorism can
be defined as:

Terrorist acts carried out either by attacking a nuclear facility or through malicious
use of a radiological device (.atomicarchive.com/Glossary/Glossary8.shtml)

...the deliberate use of radioactive material to cause destruction, contamination, and

injury (://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=472.).

Radioactivity can be described as the property of a number of elements that propels a

impulsive conversion or decay of the nucleus of an unstable atom. Thus, as the
unstable atom attempts to transform itself to a stable state, it definitely discharges
energy in the form of radiation. Radioisotopes (radioactive materials) are the
substances used for this process of transformation. When the substances are developed
into a usable form like powder or pullets, they become radioactive sources
(://www.nti.org/h_learnmore/radtutorial/chapter01_05.html).

Through the use of radiological dispersal device (RDD) containing some radioactive
materials, terrorists can pose a high security risk to any people especially by causing
severe physical and environmental contamination. For instance, the use of "dirty
bomb", a type of RDD that involves the use of normal explosives like TNT, to
violently disperse radioactive materials, can also cause serious physical and
environmental damage. Apart from usual violent destructions often precipitated by the
blast emanating from the bomb, the explosion will also disseminate radioactive
materials to contaminate the environment, capable of putting the public health of the
affected communities in quandary. These radioactive materials can cause different
forms of ailment including cancer.

There are two ways through which terrorists can use radiological materials, and they
include active and passive. The active approach usually involves disseminating
radioactive materials over wide or small area with the application of RDD. On the
other hand, passive approach normally involves spreading of radioactive materials in
form of radiation-emitting device (RED) in a location with the aim of infecting the
people with the harmful materials. RED can be disseminated in a busy public place

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where many people can be infected with the materials, causing them a lot of harm on
either a long or short term depending on the destructive nature of the materials used.

3.2.5 Physical Violence

Physical violence is generally one of the aspects of terrorism. It is actually a regular

feature of terrorism. It usually involves the use of aggression and physical attack that
can cause harm in human and material terms to any target people or communities.
This aspect of terrorism does not always involve the application of biological or
chemical or radiological agents or any highly technological weapons. Though, we
cannot rule the use of any of the foregoing but it normally involves the use of small
arms and light weapons like rifles, grenades, etc.

A good example is the December 1986 terrorist attack in Columbia where there was
bomb explosion outside a government office building in Bogotá. In the aftermath of
that dastardly act, fifty-two people were reported dead. A long bloody conflict
between the Drug commandos and government forces in Columbia has been
recorded. In august 1989, the Columbian government declared a war against the drug
barons. Within three months, 497 drug suspects had been arrested, several property
confiscated and weapons worth US$250 million were recovered. In retaliation, a total
number of 187 civilians and government officials were murdered by ‘coke’ princes,
265 bombings were carried out and property estimated at over US$500 million were
destroyed (Times Magazine, 18 December 1989: 26).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain any four aspects of terrorism.

3.3 Individual Protective Measures

a) It is important to be alert and take a good watch of the surrounding area and
quickly respond when you see some suspected people that you consider can
pose a threat by immediately informing the law enforcement agents;

b) Whenever you are embarking on a journey avoid picking strangers on the road;

c) Anytime you receive a threat call, always try to be calm and record the
conversation with the suspected terrorist calling provided that your phone has
the function to record voice calls. You should quickly inform the law
enforcement agents about the threat you have received from a caller. If you
recorded the conversation, copy it in a tape and give it to the police or private
investigator(s) for further action;

d) Also when travelling locally or internationally, always avoid accepting loads

that you are not sure of their contents from people especially the strangers, not
for any amount. The reason is that the cost of damage that you may suffer for

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accepting such loads may be far higher than what you are paid. Therefore, it is
necessary to be careful in dealing with people;

e) At home or in the office, you should ensure that emergency routes are created,
which can facilitate smoother evacuation in case of emergency situation that
may be occasioned by terrorist attack;

f) Installation of surveillance camera and Closed Circuit Televisions can also be

useful to prevent the incidence of terrorist attack(s). Through monitoring and
surveillance, any gang of terrorists can be rounded-up by the law enforcement
agents during the time they are planning to carry-out their dastardly act;

g) In the event of terrorist attack, you should be calm and avoid anxiety because
anxiety can deprive you opportunity to respond creatively and effectively to
mitigate the impact of the hazard on you;

h) Quickly inform the law enforcement agents of the terrorist attack and notify of
the emergency response that the situation requires. You should give details of
the location and other relevant information that can help in facilitating a prompt
and effective intervention. The challenge that people face in this part of the
world is that the response of law enforcement agents to terrorist events is rather
too lackadaisical and not timely too. Some of the factors responsible may
include poor preparedness, lack of adequate working tools, operational
deficiency, lack of hazard mitigation practices, official incompetency, among
others;

i) Carefully, locate the emergency routes through which you can negotiate your
escape from the building under a terrorist attack;

j) If you are in a high-rise building, it is advisable to avoid using the lift because
it is possible that the terrorists would have anticipated that many of the
occupants will rush to the lift to escape from the building. In this case, it is
very likely that the terrorists would plant explosive(s) or dangerous materials
like bio-chemical agents in the lift in which many people will lose their lives.
It is therefore wise to carefully use the stairs and don’t be panic to avoid
stampeding;

k) There is need to use masks by the rescuers to avoid any form of chemical or
biological attack from the hazard; and

l) Due to the fact that biological agents are not usually detected immediately, it is
incumbent on government to find out through its intelligence network and crop
of scientists if there was any use of biological weapons by the terrorists. And if
it is detected that biological weapons were used, efforts should be made to
quarantine the location and take all the victims to the hospital for diagnosis and
comprehensive treatment.

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4.0 CONCLUSION

By the 1960s, international terrorism assumed a level of modernism of more strategic

and tactical characters. Its superficial sophistication is consequent upon emergent
global variables like cold war, upsurge in nationalism, self determination insurgency,
unresolved conflict between Palestine and Israel, Coups and Counter Coups, economic
depression, Islamic fundamentalism, revolution in technology and communication
among others.

The strategy, tactics and operators of modern terrorism are totally not consistent with
the 19th century terrorism. Prior to the later part of the 20th century, the doctrine of mass
destruction and violent recklessness that dominate modern terrorism was palpably
absent (see Jenkins, 1975: 8). Proliferation of weapons and technological advancement
brought into the fore by cold war as well as cacophonic international media coverage of
international terrorism had really altered the traditional philosophy of international
terror. Most unfortunately, mass destruction has become object of international
recognition and yardstick to measure the success of any terrorist network.

5 . 0 S U M M AR Y

In this unit, our focus was shifted to another human form of security threat. We began
the study by explaining the meaning of terrorism. Thereafter, we presented various
forms of terrorism, and our attention was also drawn to various aspects of terrorism.
The last area of discourse was a list of individual protective measures or actions,
which can help us to mitigate the incidence of terrorism.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Describe the term terrorism, and mention any four aspects and forms of terrorism.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Berkowitz, B. J., Frost, M., Hajic, E. J. & Redisch, H. (1972). Superviolence: The
Civil Threat of Mass Destruction Weapons. Report A72-034-10, 29 September.
ADCON (Advanced Concepts Research) Corporation, Santa Barbara, CA.

Claude Jr., I. L. (1980). Just Wars: Doctrines and Institutions. In Connery, R.H. &
Caraley, D. (eds). National Security and Nuclear Strategy. New York: The Academy
of Political Science. 83-96.

Hardman, J.N. (1937). Terrorism in 14 Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, New

York: Macmillan. 575 – 579.

Higgins, R. (1997). The General International Law of Terrorism. In Higgins, R. &

Flory, M. (eds). Terrorism and International Law. London: Routledge. 13-42

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Jenkins, B. M. (1975). High Technology Terrorism and Surrogate War: The Impact of
New Technology on Level Violence, (The RAND Paper Series, No. 5339) January.

Times Magazine (18 December 1989).

Wilkinson, P. (1977) Terrorism and the Liberal State London: Macmillan (1977)

Wardlaw, G. (1989). Political Terrorism: Theory, Tactics and counter measures

Cambridge University Press.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bioterrorism. Retrieved on 28 October, 2009.

.atomicarchive.com/Glossary/Glossary8.shtml. Retrieved on 30 October, 2009.

://www.dawn.com/weekly/dmag/archive/020616/dmag21.htm). Retrieved on 30
August, 2008.

://edhelper.com/Reading Comprehension_33_243.html. Retrieved on 30 October,

2009.

://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/mar/04/aids. Retrieved on 28 October, 2009.

://www.hhs.gov/disasters/emergency/manmadedisasters/bioterorism/index.html.
Retrieved on 28 October, 2009.

://www.medterms.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=18694. Retrieved on 8 October,

2009.

.nmmems.org/main_glossary_C.html. Retrieved on 10 October, 2009.

://www.nti.org/h_learnmore/radtutorial/chapter01_05.html. Retrieved on 30 October,
2009.

.pbs.org/wgbh/rxforsurvival/glossary.html. Retrieved on 28 October, 2009.

://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=472. Retrieved on 29 September, 2009.

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UNIT 4

WAR AS A SECURITY THREAT

CONTENTS
1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of war
3.2 Features of War
3.3 Categories of Warfare
4.0 Conclusion
5 . 0 S u m ma r y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, marking the end of the Cold War era, security
discourse and practice has undergone a number of transformations. There has been a
shift in paradigm in the analysis of security issues in recent time. It is noticeable that
new security threats have emerged, as non-state actors appear to pose greater security
risk to national and international communities. The hopes of having a global system
that will be devoid of war and violent crimes by many quarters, due to the demise of
the Cold War, have been dashed considering the state of the world polity where
perpetual insecurity has become the order of the day.

The very virulent nature of the emerging security threats has been a source of worry
not only to governments at all levels (from local to global). The growing loyalty of
people towards sub-state entities and the pervasive attitude of ethnic nationalism and
ethnocentrism have been undermining the potentials of countries like Nigeria to
effectively manage internal security, reducing the capacity of the government to
achieving nation-building. The relevance of the security sector in the maintenance of
law and order in Africa especially has been a subject of debate. The recent incident of
Boko Haram crisis in northern Nigeria especially Borno and Bauchi states where some
anti-Western education Muslim jingoists engaged the security agents in bloody battle, a
situation that led to more than 1000 deaths, is worthy of note.

The unprofessional handling of the situation by the Nigeria Police raised a doubt about
its capacity to manage crime and overall internal security of the country. If the
excesses of the Boko Haram sect were not checked by the law enforcement agents
(especially the Army), the group may later decide to engage Nigerian state in “holy”
war as a way of challenging its secularity. In this unit, we shall study war as a threat to
security. Owing to the danger that war poses not only to the people but also the
environment, it is germane to put in place relevant security strategies and policy

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actions that can assist in mitigating the threat of war.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define the term war;

• Describe the features of war; and

• Explain the categories of warfare.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Definition of War

The term war is often given some interpretative connotations ‘whose meanings are
rarely examined’ (Smith, 1989:23). War may be described as open armed conflict
between nations or states or between parties in the same states, facilitated by force of
arms for various purposes. The conceptualisation of war has remained problematic in
international relations. It has been greatly flexible and dynamic. Thus, there exist
specific parameters to define the concept of war. According to Adeniran (1982), war
involves:

...common agreement, that is distinct from peace, and it is characterized by military

activity, high social and political tension, and the breakdown of normal relations. War
could result from a deliberate and carefully calculated decision... It could also be a
choice among alternative courses of action and could be only course one is left with. It
is a phenomenon which affects everybody and all nations, irrespective of ideologies,
and irrespective of the level of economic and political development (Adeniran, 1982:
123).

War can also be defined as protracted state of violent, large-scale conflict involving
two or more parties. War is aggression and counter-aggression whose chief property is
large scale destruction both in human and material terms within the context of time
and space. According to Carl Von Clausewitz, “It is of course well known that the
only source of war is politics ....war is simply a continuation of political intercourse,
with the addition of other means” (Clausewitz, 1982: 119).

War has remained a regular feature in human civilization. It often spices the
relationship between parties, and in spite of its virulence and danger to continued
existence of man, war has remained recalcitrant in human history. War spices every
century, race, continent, nation, society and culture, which makes it pretty impossible
to study human history without taking a look at the activities and actions of man,
which have aroused a violent conflict behaviour as well as the role played by upsurge
of war situation in shaping the relationship among various state and non-state actors.

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Thus, considering the foregoing, one tends to agree with Clemenceau as quoted by
Andreas Osiander (1994):
From the most remote ages onward, the peoples have perpetually assailed one another
for the satisfaction of their appetites and their egoistical interests [and their fears
(Osiander, 1994:265)

Nonetheless, wars vary in intensity. We have high intensity warfare and low
intensity warfare. High intensity warfare is between two superpowers or powerful
countries fighting for political goals. Low intensity warfare involves
counterinsurgency, guerrilla warfare and specialized types of troops fighting
revolutionaries.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe the term war?

3.2 Features of War as a Security Threat

The experience of the 20th century has shown that the century recorded more war with
incomparable human casualty than the previous centuries put together. According to
Gray (1999), the century produced two world wars, a handful of international wars,
cold war, anti-colonial insurgence, ethnic violence among others. The century also
marked the beginning of sophisticated and lethal technology in weaponry and
prosecution of war. The emergent war technology has presented the world as unsafe
not only to man but also the general ecosystem. The underlying threat that war poses
to security of lives and property of any people is very high, as captioned by Braden
and Shelley:

War has been as analogous to disease in its spread and effect. It has been likened to
natural disasters in its impact on society’s structures (Braden & Shelley, 2000:69)

Similarly, the view of Braden & Shelley (2000) was further illuminated by Nwolise
(2004) who argued that:

War destroys life, and property, principles and values, and wakes up beastly elements in
man. War leads to environmental pollution and degradation. It kills human beings in
their millions depending on the magnitude...and forces people to leave their homes and
become refugees in their country or outside. War diverts the developmental resources of
a state to defence and war-making. It retards the rate of development of a people and a
state, at least in the short-run. It spreads pestilence, destitution, hunger and starvation.
It creates gross insecurity and traumatises people (Nwolise, 2004: 8).

Clausewitz in his axiom argues that the relationship between means and objectives of
war involves a situation where the latter remains paramount throughout the war.
Clausewitz also describes the war environment in his ‘climate of war’ as having four
features, which include danger, exertion, uncertainty and chance, concluding that

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war is both deadly and a gamble. To stimulate our better understanding of the subject
matter, it is quite imperative to examine the above mentioned features of war as
presented by Clausewitz.

Danger of War

On danger of war, no one will disprove the damaging and destructive implication of
war not only on human beings and material resources but also on the entire ecosystem.
The tendency for mutual destruction is high. The danger of war is not limited to the
combatants but also extends its virulence and social venom to parties not directly
involved in the conflict or not involved at all.

A good example was the Sierra Leone Civil War, which began in 1991 where several
thousands of innocent civilians lost their lives as more than 2 million people (well over
one-third of the population) were displaced. Neighbouring countries became hosts to a
significant number of these displaced persons as refugees while trying to escape the
civil war.

The civil war was initiated by the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) led by Foday
Sankoh. The rebel group (RUF) launched its first bloody campaign into eastern
Kailahun of Sierra Leone from Liberia on March 23, 1991. In less than five months,
the crisis had generated about 107,000 refugees who fled the conflict into Guinea
(Adebajo, 2002:90). Foday Sankoh was the head of the military wing of the RUF that
included in its ranks Burkinabes and members of the National Patriotic Front of Liberia
(NPFL) under the tutelage of Mr. Charles Taylor.

The civil war in Sierra Leone featured conscription of Children by the RUF rebel group
in the recruitment of its army, sexual slavery, murder of non-combatants among other
war crimes. Nevertheless, such acts were tantamount to the contravening of various
international conventions and protocols guiding the conduct of war.

However, it is not surprising that the chief co-conspirator in such shameful and
dastardly act, Charles Taylor is now facing trial at the Hague over alleged war crime,
and if he is found guilty he may spend the rest of his life in prison. It is important to
note that not all the leaders of the RUF particularly the intellectuals among them
supported the rebel strategy adopted by Sankoh. Many of them berated and condemned
forced recruitment of children but many of these disentting voices were brutally
murdered by Foday Sankoh. The war led to the collapse of all state structures with
attendant socio-political disorder and structural cataclysm.

A numbers of scholars have blamed the upsurge of the crisis basically on the irrational
desire of the political gladiators to exclusively enjoy the control of Sierra Leone's
diamond industry (Hirsch, 2000: 15). The endemic poverty, which reigned supreme
among the mass public also contributed. Thus, the majority of people were subjected to
marginal survival as chronic penury remained their second nature.

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The 1999 Lomé Agreement failed to restore any peace to the country due to the
strategic advantage it gave to the RUF rebels as Foday Sankoh was put in charge of
the mineral resources of the country, meaning that the diamond trade was largely
under the control of the rebels. The attempt made by the United Nations (UN) to
reduce the rebels’ control of the diamond fields was greeted with resurgence of the
civil war. The situation of insecurity became deepened. The RUF resorted to carrying
out an offensive campaign against the UN troops. It took the intervention of the
British troops to save the country from persistent bestiality in the hands of the rebels.
The British military intervention in that war-torn country is commendable owing to
the success it recorded in the restoration of peace and security in Sierra Leone.

The rebel leader was captured and the British left a training team to rebuild the armed
forces of Sierra Leone as effective institution for sustainable post conflict state
security. The British actions were instrumental to eventual American intervention in
Liberian war. It is a fact that the termination of armed hostility in Liberia has really
helped in providing stability on Sierra Leone's borders and restoring normal market
forces to the diamond trade.

The danger of war in West Africa could be observed in the volume of refugee
generation in the region, which has increased trans-border crime, armed robbery and
wide circulation of small arms and light weapons among the civilian population
making the prevailing atmosphere of peace a fragile one. The number of small arms in
Nigeria has increased tremendously since the outbreak of war in Liberia in the early
1990s.

The inherent danger in the outbreak of war in any country is instructive to the
activities of the neighbouring countries in making sure that peace is restored in the
warring state because of the potentials of such war, in spreading to the neighbouring
countries. The Great Lake region is a good example where war has become an
infectious disease plaguing the countries in the region, which makes the region the
highest generator of refugee flow on the African continent. The region has had the lion
share in the flows of refugees in Africa. The countries that we find in this region
include Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), Kenya, Tanzania,
Rwanda and Uganda. All these countries at one time or the other have contributed to
the production of refugees in the region except Tanzania (see Afolayan, 2003; Evans,
1998; UNHCR, 1991).

Exertion

Exertion is the act of putting some power or faculty into vigorous action. War saps
energy, it involves both mental and physical strength. Soldiers are disciplined and
drilled for the task they will face in the theatre of war. It is not surprising that anybody
who is recruited into the military must be physically fit and be emotionally stable. War
is not a joke, it is a serious business!

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There are some light weapons that ordinary a man cannot carry. Not every adult can
withstand operating an AK-47 riffle because of the pressure it exerts. Not only the
physical strength that is required in any anticipated successful military campaign, the
troops or belligerents must also have an advantage in the area of tactical support
capabilities, which puts the mental object at work.

Also, war consumes a lot of socio-economic resources. In the Iraq war, the US and its
allies must have spent nothing less than $30 trillion apart from human casualty being
recorded almost weekly, if not daily, on the side of their (the US and its allies) troops.
The war has really sapped the economy of the US to the extent that the country is said
to be on the verge of economic recess.

Uncertainty

The power relation between the armed gladiators is viewed to often determine the
outcome of a violent hostility. In a case whereby there is assymetric relation in the
power equilibrium of the disputing parties, an average person will believe that the
outcome of such conflict will always be in favour of the stronger party. It is often
believed that in a situation of armed conflict between a great power and a weak nation,
considering the military capability and mobility, and strategic superiority enjoyed by
the former over the latter, the former (great power) would be victorious.

Carl Von Clausewitz disagreed with the above notion, arguing that war is not only a
risky business but also coloured by uncertainty. The fiasco suffered by the US in the
Vietnam war as well as the failure of the US and its allies to conclude the war in Iraq
have given credence to the argument articulated by Clausewitz.

Despite the asymmetric power relation between Iraq and the US led allied forces, the
war in Iraq has remained more prolonged than expected. This explains why a number
of scholars in the fields of politics and conflict studies fondly say that the US and its
allies have only succeeded to win the war but not the battle. This is because the war
has moved from conventional to unconventional violence. The number of the US
troops being injured or killed on weekly basis by the local militants through guerrilla
war strategy is considerably high.

Another example of uncertainty in the outcome of war was the Sino-Japanese War.
The Sino-Japanese war was the first major international war involving China after
1860. The war was between China and Japan. The relationship between the duo had
never been cordial even before the outbreak of the war. The cause of their armed
hostility was the control of Korea. Korea had been a tributary of China for a long time.
China was displeased with the bilateral diplomacy entered into between the Seoul
government and Japan, an age-long rival.

The bilateral diplomacy became further cemented in the following years. Then
emerged a clash of influence between China and Japan, when the former wanted to
continue maintaining its traditional influence in Korea, the government of the latter

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was all out to consolidate the diplomatic relation between her and the Seoul
government.

The gladiatorial posture was maintained by the duo of China and Japan until the
emergence of full blown war between them in 1894. The war lasted for one year. Due
to the size of the Chinese army and its naval superiority in the region, one would have
thought that China would win the war convincingly but to the surprise of the entire
world, Japan won the war. By 1895 a treaty was entered into-the Treaty of
Shimonoseki which held that:

China had to recognize the independence of Korea and had to cede to Japan the Island
of Formosa, Pescadores Islands, and the Liaotung Peninsula (Strayer et al., 1961:
318).

The world experience has shown that uncertainty is not limited to the outcome of war
but it also curries every aspect of war policy. A good example was the Fashoda Crisis.
England and Egypt were in control of Sudan, and due to the local revolt led by
“Madhi” Muhammed Ahmed, Britain decided to withdraw its administration of the
State (Sudan). The Madhi’s followers then took-over the political administration of
Sudan. Britain quickly rescinded its decision to leave Sudan, when she noticed that the
French and Belgian colonizers were extending their imperial expedition towards
Sudan, knowing fully well that its interest was likely to be jeopardised for no more
reason than the headwaters of the Nile being controlled by the Sudan. By 1896, the
British and Egyptian forces under the tutelage of Lord Kitchener began to reintroduce
imperial administration in the Sudan. In 1898 Kitchener’s imperial exploration
approached the fort of Fashoda on the Nile, and discovered that French forces had
already annexed the Sudan to France. Then, there emerged a tension between the
British and French forces for the control of the Sudan.

The French rethought the war option because it considered its non-readiness to engage
the British forces in naval war. Therefore, the French had no other option than to leave
the Sudan. By 1899, Britain and Egypt had established joint control of what later
became the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. The French conceded to England, not because of
the fear to enter into war with England per se but the uncertainty that underlies war
articulation.

Chance

Chance can be referred to as unknown or the undefined cause of events not subject to
calculation. According to Clausewitz, war is a game of probability, or simply put, a
game of luck. War Weariness Hypothesis makes us to understand that a country at
war will definitely get tired and such country may lose an enthusiasm or zeal for a
while which is likely to restore an atmosphere of peace. If we take a critical look at this
argument, we may support Clausewitz from the perspective that party A may decide to
engage Party B in war while Party B had just experienced a protracted war situation
with another party, and entering any prolonged war with Party A may be

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considered by it (Party B) as uncalled for, if it can make concessions that may not
largely affect her interest for restoration of peace.

An example of this, is the anti-colonial armed struggle between the imperial forces of
portugal and the Mozambican liberation movement-Frente de Libertacao de
Mocambique (FRELIMO). FRELIMO was formed in 1962 and began its guerrilla
operations in 1964. Her mission was basically to wrestle political power from the
portuguese colonialists for independence of Mozambique. At the time the anti-colonial
struggle was going on in Mozambique against the Portuguese colonial force, Guinea
Bissau’s Partido Africano de Independencia Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGI), Guinea
Bissau’s armed liberation movement was also waging war against Portuguese
colonialists in its home country. The two anti-colonial insurgent movements,
FRELIMO and PAIGI took the risk of waging war against the Portuguese forces
knowing that war weariness may set in, coupled with the political challenge that
Portugal was facing at home. It was believed that those two reasons Might have forced
the Portuguese to accept their fate in the battle for supremacy. Eventually, Portugal
had to abandon the countries.

Sometimes, the above-mentioned calculation may not work, considering the activities
of Germany after the First World War. Germany was sanctioned and faced a great
penalty for war-mongering. But the country still undertook a very risky adventure by
going into another war in the realisation of the Nazist lebensraum project as well as
other variables. Nonetheless, it took the whole Europe by surprise that despite the
defeat Germany suffered in the World War I and its consequences on her, the country
still embarked on offensive mission, which snowballed into World War II. Adolf
Hitler took the risk to launch the German race into racial eminence and superiority
but he, his Nazist Gestapo and the entire Germany became the victims of their own
(war) policy.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the features of war as posited by Clausewitz.

3.3 Categories of Warfare.

There are two major categories of warfare. These include conventional warfare and
unconventional warfare. For conventional warfare, it involves well-identified, armed
confrontation between parties. A good example is the Iraq war, we mean the early part
of the war when the allied forces led by the US and Britain engaged the Iraqi regular
soldiers and irregular forces in an open military campaign. This open armed
confrontation is supposed to be devoid of application of weapons of mass destruction
as mandated by the laws of war and several other conventions.

Unconventional warfare refers to any armed conflict that does not involve the parties
engaging in an open confrontation. This category of warfare is often adopted mostly in
a situation whereby the combatants have asymmetric power relation. After the defeat

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of the Iraqi forces in an open armed hostility, many of the soldiers from Iraq’s side
that survived the military onslaught by the allied forces thereby went underground.

Many of the old Iraqi guards are responsible for the guerrilla offensive being carried
out against the allied forces as well as the local people. The reign of terror pervades
the entire post-Saddam political landscape in Iraq. This category of warfare usually
involves tactics like raiding, terrorism, insurgency, guerrilla, even, as well as nuclear,
chemical or biological warfare.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What are the categories of war?

4.0 CONCLUSION

War remains a great threat to the security of any country. May be because of its
devastating effect, it has continued to attract growing attention among scholars,
policy-makers and militarists. It has become worrisome that since the beginning of the
Cold War era, the rise of nationalist struggle and rebellion has been phenomenal in
developing countries especially Africa leading to a series of civil wars and
insurgencies as experienced in Nigeria, Sierra-Leone, Angola, to mention a few. The
incident of genocide mounted by the inter-ethnic violence in Rwanda has remained a
nightmare to Africa and the world at large. Nevertheless, the capacity of the security
sector to maintain law and order has persistently been undermined by local insurgents
and rebel forces. This situation has posed a great challenge to security management in
Africa, and security practitioners alongside other security stakeholders need to
brainstorm and make collaborative efforts in the development of strategies in
mitigating war and reduce losses that a warring situation may attract.

5 . 0 SU M MA R Y

In this unit, we discussed the meaning of war and showed how it constitutes a threat to
the security of any people or state in our conceptual definition. Thereafter, we
explained various features of war with credence to the intellectual contributions to the
study of war by Clausewitz. The third and last area of discourse on the subject was to
explain the basic categories of warfare: conventional and unconventional. Thank you
for your patience and the zeal you have demonstrated to acquire knowledge since the
beginning of this unit.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Define the term war and explain the features of wars as articulated by Clausewitz.

7.0 REFERENCES / FURTHER READING

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Adebajo, A. (2002). Liberia's Civil War: Nigeria, ECOMOG, and Regional Security in
West Africa. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

Adeniran, T. (1982). Introduction to International Relations, Lagos: Macmillan

Nigeria Publishers Limited.

Afolayan, A. A. (2003). Dynamics of Refugee Flows and Forced Repatriation in

Africa. African Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies. 1(1): 66-90.

Braden, K. E. & Shelley, F.M. (2000). Engaging Geo-Politics. Harlow:Prentice

Hallsee.

Clausewitz, C. V. (1982). On War. London: Penguin Books.

Evans, G. (1998). Responding to Crisis in the African Great Lakes. Forced Migration
Review, 1: 32-33.

Gray, C (1999), Modern Strategy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hirsch, J. L. (2000). Sierra Leone: Diamonds and the Struggle for Democracy.
Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers. (December 1).

Nwolise, O.B.C. (2004). The Nigerian Police in International Peace-Keeping in a

Changing World. Ibadan: Spectrum Books Limited.

Osiander, A. (1994). (quoting Georges Clemenceau December 29, 1918), The States
System of Europe, 1640–1990. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.

Smith, R.S. (1989). Warfare and Diplomacy in Pre-Colonial West Africa (2nd Edition).
London: James Currey Ltd.

Strayer, J.R., Gatzke, H.W. & Harbison, E.H. (1961). The Course of Civilization
(Volume Two). NewYork: Harcourt, Brace and World Inc.

UNHCR (1991), Refugee Survey Quarterly, Geneva.

UNIT 5

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INFORMATION WARFARE AS A SECURITY THREAT

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Describing Information Warfare
3.2 Types of Information Warfare
4.0 Conclusion
5 .0 S umm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Information warfare is a relatively new term that has become a popular vocabulary in
national and international security settings. The concept of Information has
traditionally been a prominent feature of warfare, even right from the primitive age.
The concept has moved beyond the traditional methods of propaganda and spying.

Computers have brought a new dimension to information warfare. In contemporary

time, computers are used to perform a lot of functions as they now have great impact
on every aspect of human relations and development. Ten years ago, no less than 400
million people were using computers for various tasks but now there are more than 1
billion computer users, which shows the growing relevance computers enjoy in the
new world order.

Well, the basis of this unit is not only to conceptually define information warfare but
also to focus on how information technology constitutes a security threat. It will
amount to disservice, if we fail to explain some of the major types of (modern)
information warfare. This we shall avoid by beaming our search-light also on various
types of information warfare. Thank you in anticipation of your attention. It is my
belief that you will find this unit very interesting.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define information warfare;

• Discuss how it constitutes a security threat; and

• Identify types of information warfare

3.0 MAIN BODY

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3.1 Describing Information Warfare

Traditionally, parties strived to know the strategic secrets of the other parties with the
aim of gaining strategic advantage over the enemy parties. Some people would be sent
to enemies’ camps for information-sipping and espionage. Information could also be
applied in form of propaganda and destructive rumours with the aim of subjecting the
enemy-party to perpetual confusion for political reasons.

Presently, information has assumed a more prominent role in relation between one
actor and the other in contemporary global system. The reason for this is not far-
fetched. The emergence of information revolution has created a new expression and a
paradigm shift in modern warfare (Libicki, 1995).

The philosophical idea, which formed the basis of the emerging information warfare
can be ascribed, or better still be linked to Sun Tzu ideological orientation, which is
interpreted thus:

Attaining one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the pinnacle of
excellence. Subjugating the enemy’s army without fighting is the true pinnacle of
excellence (Translated in Sawyer, 1994).

Sun Tzu tried to present another face of strategy and warfare when he stressed the
importance of creative application of information among parties, the greatest strategy
through which parties can meet their political goals rather than adopting the traditional
means of warfare like the use of weapons. The use of information in warfare is
relatively cheaper but its implication may be unprecedented and more destructive than
the traditional means of warfare.

Let us consider a scenario whereby young children are arching information from a
nation’s military intelligence network, and subsequently corrupt and destroy its
strategic information infrastructure. Consequently, the impact of such electronic
intrusion and damage may be more devastating than aerial bombardment of such
nation. This tells us the importance of information technology in modern warfare and
security management.

The definition of information warfare has been a great subject of debate, especially in
the 1990s. The term information warfare appears too wide. It includes several aspects
of traditional military policy such as battlefield command and control warfare (C2W)
as well as other traditional types of electronic warfare (EW). Then, what is
information warfare? According to the Institute for the Advanced Study of
Information Warfare:

Information warfare is the offensive and defensive use of information and information
systems to exploit, corrupt, or destroy an adversary’s information and information
systems, while protecting one’s own. Such actions are designed to achieve advantages
over military or business adversaries (.psycom.net/iwar.1.html).

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The International Centre for Security Analysis describes information warfare as

“struggles for control over information activities”. It goes further to identify and
analyse various categories of information warfare, according to her: the first category
“encompasses the whole range of psychological, media, diplomatic and military
techniques for influencing the mind of an opponent, whether that opponent is a
military commander or a whole population”.

In addition, the second category will focus on the ways through which the military or
the security sector can be transformed to the one that can dominate the “information
spectrum”. Thus, information dominance can be achieved through a party engaging
the other (enemy party) in a physical conflict “either unnecessary or at worst short,
sharp and successful”. The last category involves any form of electronic assault
directed against either the military or civilian information facilities (or both) of the
enemy party.

According to the US Air Force, information warfare can be described as:

any action to deny, exploit, corrupt, or destroy the enemy’s information and its
function-while protecting ourselves against similar actions (US Air Force (1995, 3-4)

Mark Jacobson on his part, defines information warfare as:

actions taken to preserve the integrity of one’s information infrastructure from

exploitation, corruption(,) or destruction while at the same time exploiting(,)
corrupting (,) or destroying an adversary’s information systems (,) thereby achieving
a military advantage (see .infowar.com/resource/warfare.doc).

The French Ministry of Defence describes information warfare as a concept, which

exhibits itself in three basic forms. And these forms help us in the conceptualization of
the term information warfare. According to her, the elements of information warfare
include:

War for information (guerre pour l’information): to obtain information about the
enemy’s means, capabilities and strategies in order to defend ourselves;

War against information (guerre contre l’information): at the same time to protect our
information systems and disrupt or destroy the enemy’s;
War through information (guerre par l’information): to conduct misinformation or
deception operations against the enemy in order to achieve “information dominance”
(see Moliner, 1998: 11).

Information warfare involves the application of computer and its related mechanisms
basically to plunder the military and/or civilian information networks of the enemy
party. It is no gainsaying, information warfare has begun to receive growing interest

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among scholars in the field of security studies and policy makers due to its ability to
destroy military powers of enemy party.

However, information warfare is not prosecuted like traditional warfare. It is often

waged through disabling and crashing “an enemy’s armed forces and civilian
infrastructure without the use of a single bullet. The computer is the weapon of the
twenty-first century” (see .bu.edu/law/scitech/volume6/Robbat.htm#ftn1).

Information has remained a veritable tool of warfare from time immemorial. But it has
assumed a new dimension since the emergence of information revolution resulting
from the rapid sophistication of modern technology. The trend of modern information
system has made war a very interesting discourse.

Meanwhile, how will you feel, having a situation where nations or individuals conduct
war more through application of (modern) information systems rather than the
traditional physical aggression? What damage can a super-power like the US suffer
greater than crushing its economic power or hegemony?

Through information sipping, Asian countries like China have continued to constitute
an enormous threat to the US by imitating (or thieving) the American technology
models especially in the automobile industry. The US would manufacture a car model
while China will do its imitation with improved quality, may even sell it at a cheaper
rate, forcing buyers including Americans to rush for the China products. Due to the
emergent information revolution that characterises the relations among state and non-
state actors, it is no news that war is fought on a daily basis through information, and
nonetheless:

There are countless ways malicious people can use a computer to perform illegal
activity—hacking into systems, leaking trade secrets, unleashing new viruses, using
phishing messages to steal personal information, and so on. And we are constantly
hearing about new exploits (://www.microsoft.com/technet/technetmag/issues
/2007/12/Forensics/).

The growing relevance of computers has nonetheless culminated in the contemporary

security threat that we face at every level of human relation, from personal through
national to global affairs. Enemy parties now give priority attention to ways they can
have strategic advantage over one another by attacking one another’s information
systems. These attacks are capable of not only destroying the information systems but
also constitute a threat to military and civilian infrastructures (see Lyett & Ibrügger,
1997).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is information warfare?

3.2 Types of information Warfare

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a) Data Attacks: These are done by inserting data into an information system to
distort its functionality like application of computer virus. The computer
viruses are often small programmes created and developed by some disgruntled
elements like (adventurous) computer science students, hackers, despicable
programmers and some nefarious computer corporations. But, these viruses are
very destructive as they can easily corrupt the information files on the target
system(s), make the system(s) malfunction or even crash the operating system
(DOS) or even the storage facilities like the hard drive;

b) Software Attacks: These involve penetrating the target information system(s)

by applying software to steal information or make the system(s) to fail or
malfunction or crash. There are software packages that can enable one’s
password to be accessed illegally while there are some others, which can make
the systems to malfunction. Some software if applied on your system will look
for some specific security files automatically allowing hackers to sip
information from your system(s) or even electronically destroy it;

c) Hacking and Cracking: This involves illegitimate entry into or control of

information system(s) to steal information or cause some forms of damage or
destruction to the system(s) including deleting of the target information (files).
Many of these hackers usually have evil intentions. They sometimes attack
their victims’ systems to destroy them completely or to spy and/or steal vital
information from the systems.

For instance, in the United States within the period of almost eleven months
(January to mid November 1998), the National Security Agency (NSA)
revealed that no less than 3800 illegal intrusions were attempted by hackers
against the Defence Department’s unclassified computer systems and networks.
But there’s likelihood or possibility that the NSA deliberately reduced the
actual number of the intrusions for strategic reason(s). This is because there are
speculations that the actual number of intrusions was higher than the figure
announced or made public by the NSA (.wired.com/news).

Another example was the case of two British boys who hacked or gained illegal
access into the system of the Air Force’s laboratories in New-York. The boys
gained the intrusion through the use of “sniffer” programme, which allowed
them to get the passwords and user-log-ins to the system network (see
.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/nato/as285stc-e.html).

It was not surprising that in an attempt by the US to contain the security threat
that the activities of hackers pose to its national security especially the defence,
the government allowed Pentagon to conduct a simulation exercise in the
summer of 1997. The simulation exercise was tagged “Eligible Receiver”. The
reason for the exercise was to see how much the US military and civilian
infrastructure could resist intrusion(s) and attack(s).

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Therefore, a group of hackers known as the Red team was set up to do the
intrusion test. Though, the result of the exercise was not made public by the
government, but James Adams, a Washington based journalist revealed, after
conducting a number of (secret) interviews for several senior officials of the
Pentagon. According to him:

The [simulated] attacks focused on three main areas: the national information
infrastructure, the military leadership and the political leadership. In each of
these three areas, the hackers found it exceptionally easy to penetrate
apparently well-defended systems. Air traffic control systems were taken down,
power grids made to fail, oil refineries stopped pumping - all initially apparent
incidents. At the same time, in response to a hypothetical international crisis,
the Defence department was moving to deploy forces overseas and the logistics
network was swinging into action. It proved remarkably easy to disrupt that
network by changing orders [Š] and interrupt[ing] the logistics flow [Š]. The
hackers began to feed false news reports into the decision-making process so
that the politicians faced a lack of public will about prosecuting a potential
conflict and lacked detailed and accurate information [Š] (quoted in Walker &
Fidler, 1999).

There is no doubt that the danger posed by hacking to private and public
security is enormous. In the United States, the Federal Bureau for Investigation
(FBI) once reported saying that almost $10 billion is lost in the US through the
nefarious activities of the hackers. Such amount of money is far greater than the
annual budgets of several countries in Africa and elsewhere; and

d) Physical Attacks : This usually involves the use of traditional techniques like
physical destruction of information system through arson, bombing or hitting
an object against the system with the intention of destroying it. According to
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Draft Report on information
warfare and international security:

The immediate energy release from the denoted nuclear device produces
intense, rapidly varying electric and magnetic fields that can extend for
considerable distances and severely affect all electronic equipment and
electrical or radar even to the point of destroying equipment circuits,
microprocessors, and other component. Therefore, a single, very high altitude
nuclear blast...which may cause no physical damage to structures or people,
could disable all non-hardened information systems (see .iwar.org.uk/
iwar/resources/nato/as 285 stc-e.html).

Considering the foregoing, you may agree with me that a physical attack can be
targeted against information system(s) through the use of several means

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particularly the electro-magnetic pulse (EMP), which can be produced by

nuclear explosions.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Discuss types of information warfare

4.0 CONCLUSION

There is rapid increase in the people’s and nations’ reliance on computers. This is due
to the great impact information has on human and capital development. The growing
relevance of computers has also constituted a security risk to the world at large. There
is no doubt that the emergent information revolution will have some great impact in
conventional military engagement. It is no news that war planes are now being
equipped with more precision gadgets that will make it possible to hit the targets with
little or no civilian causalities. Information revolution has also made it possible to
‘crash’ a plane without shooting but through information manoeuvre.

5 . 0 S U M M AR Y

In the unit, we have been able to define the term information warfare and explain how
information warfare constitutes a security threat not only to nations but also individuals
as well as corporate entities. We thereafter discussed some of the basic types of
information warfare, which may include data attacks, software attacks, hacking etc.
Some of the ways through which we can mitigate information warfare shall be
explained subsequently (in module 3).

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Define information warfare and explain four types of information warfare.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Adams, J.(1998). The Next World War. London: Hutchinson.

Libicki, M. (1995). What is Information Warfare? Washington, D.C.: Centre for

Advanced Concepts and Technology/National Defence University.

Lyell, L. & Ibrügger, L. (1997). Information Warfare and the Millennium Bomb.
General Report, NAA Science and Technology Committee [AP 237 STC (97) 7]. Also
available on ://www.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/nato/as285stc-e.html- 2. Retrieved on
6 January, 2008.

Molander, R. C., Riddile, A. S. & Wilson, P. (1996). Strategic Information Warfare: A

New Face of War. Santa Monica, California: RAND, MR-661-OSD.

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Moliner, J. (Colonel) (1998). La Guerre de L’information Vue Par Un Operationnel

Francais. L’Armement, No. 60, Decemeber 1997-January 1998. Translated on
.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/nato/as285stc-e.html. Retrieved on 4 January, 2008.

Rathmell, A. (1998). Information Warfare and Sub-State Actors. Information,

Communication & Society, Winter 1(4): 488-503.

Smith, George (1998), “An Electronic Pearl Harbour? Not Likely”, Issues in Science
and Technology, Fall.

Walker, Tony and Stephen Fidler (1999), “China studies Computer Warfare”,
Financial Times, 16 March.

://www.abcnews.go.com/. Retrieved on 20 January, 2008.

://www.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/nato/as285stc-e.html-14. Retrieved on 20 January,

2008

.bu.edu/law/scitech/volume6/Robbat.htm#ftn1). Retrieved on 20th January, 2008.

.infowar.com/resource/warfare.doc). Retrieved on 21st January, 2008.

.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/nato/as285stc-e.html). Retrieved on 21 January, 2008.

://www.microsoft.com/technet/technetmag/issues/2007/12/Forensics/. Retrieved on 18
January, 2008.

://www.mod.uk/policy/sdr/. Retrieved on 28 January, 2008.

.psycom.net/iwar.1.html. Retrieved on 28 January, 2008.

.wired.com/news. Retrieved on 28 January, 2008.

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MODULE 2 ANALYSIS OF NON-HUMAN SECURITY THREATS

Unit 1: Analysis of Geological Security Threat/Hazards I

Unit 2: Analysis of Geological Security Threat/Hazards II
Unit 3: Analysis of Climatic Security Threat/Hazards
Unit 4: Analysis of Environmental Security Threat/Hazards I
Unit 5: Analysis of Environmental Security Threat/Hazards II

UNIT 1

ANALYSIS OF GEOLOGICAL SECURITY THREATS/HAZARDS I

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Analysing Tsunami as a Geological Hazard/Threat
3.2 Analysing Earthquakes as a Geological Hazard/Threat
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m ma r y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

There are various types of security threats but they can be summarised into human and
non-human threats to security. These non-human security threats can also be classified
into three including geological hazards or threats, climatic hazards or threats,
environmental hazards or threats. Epidemics and pandemics, and industrial accidents
can be described as both natural and human. Meanwhile, it is generally believed in
some quarters that all these non-human or simply natural hazards/threats usually have
human activities contributing to their occurrence in one way or the other.

For instance, deforestation is an environmentally hazardous situation that is usually

created by some activities of man like felling of trees and bush burning. In this unit,
our focus shall be centred on the analysis of two of the geological security threats or
hazards: tsunami and earthquake. It is as a result of the limited time and space we have
in this unit that we will not be able to cover the other two geological hazards (volcanic
eruption and landslide), which we shall beam our searchlight on in the subsequent unit
of this course.

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2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

Discuss and analyse tsunami as a geological type of natural security threat or hazard;
and

Explain and analyse earthquake as a form of geological security threat or hazard.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Analysing Tsunami as a Geological Hazard/Threat

Etymologically, the word “tsunami” emanates from the Japanese meaning “tsu”
(harbour) and “name” (wave). Tsunami can be described as massive waves around the
harbour capable of causing enormous destruction to lives and property. Tsunami
constitutes great security threat to man and his environment, and resulting from its
very adverse effect and highly destructive consequences often occasioned by its
occurrence, it has continued to attract growing interest among scholars especially in
geography, geology, environmental science, and security studies. Through various
intellectual works and research inquiries about the subject (tsunami), many definitions
of the term have emerged. Though, the list of these definitions is very long and endless
but we shall be considering some of the available definitions in our conceptual
description of the term. Therefore, tsunami can be defined as:

...waves characterized by moving at fast speeds, sometimes having a high amplitude

(wave height), and long wavelength – thus tsunamis are essentially giant waves. In the
deep ocean, tsunamis are barely felt since they are masked by the sheer vastness of the
rest of the ocean...The speed at which a tsunami travels is another impressive
characteristic. Tsunamis can travel at great speeds across an ocean, usually from 500
to 1000 kilometres per hour, with hardly any energy losses and are barely noticeable
out at sea. This is the reason why tsunamis generated from one region can affect other
regions thousands of kilometres away (://www.ringsurf.com/ online/2410-
what_is_a_tsunami_.html).

...a series of large waves of extremely long wavelength and period usually generated
by a violent, impulsive undersea disturbance or activity near the coast or in the ocean.
When a sudden displacement of a large volume of water occurs, or if the sea floor is
suddenly raised or dropped by an earthquake, big tsunami waves can be formed by
forces of gravity. Earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, explosions, and even the
impact of cosmic bodies, such as meteorites, can generate tsunamis. Tsunamis can
savagely attack coastlines, causing devastating property damage and loss of life
(://www.kjc.gov.my/english/education/seismology/whatistsunami.html).

Tsunami is usually mounted by some geological conditions like earthquake, landslides

and volcanic eruptions as well as under-water explosions like detonations of nuclear

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devices at sea among others (see ://en.wikipedia.org.wiki.Tsunami). Tsunami waves

are usually more or less noticeable in deep water and its measurement can show a
travel speed of 160km between wave crests (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 35). Another
feature or characteristic of tsunami is that it may consist of ten or more wave crests.
There is doubt no that tsunami is very devastating and destructive to human, physical
and other forms of security considering its damaging effect on man and the
environment. And some of these effects or consequences posed by the incidence of
tsunami to any community shall be explained subsequently.

3.1.1 Effects of Tsunami

i. Destructive waves speed: From the deep water of the ocean, tsunami moves at
considerably very high speed into the shallower water close to the coast,
causing devastating destruction to lives and property when it approaches
the land. In the deep water, it often appears like normal wave but it moves
at very fast rate, and its power becomes tremendously amplified with its
long wavelength, pilling up water to increase its height to as high as 30
meters when it finally reaches the land. Consequently, it can shred sand
from beaches and cause extensive damage to mankind and environment as
shown in the South Asian tsunami tragedy (see ://www.ringsurf.com/online
/2410-what_is_a_tsunami_.ht ml);

ii. Flooding: Another effect of tsunami is mounting of flood. It has the potential
of causing flood, increasing the water level by hundreds of meters, which
will move at a very fast rate capable of destroying homes and any other
structures offshore as well as endangering the lives of the affected
inhabitants resulting in many deaths (see ://www.kjc.gov.my/english
/education/seismology/whatistsunami.html);

iii. Extensive damage to human beings and physical structures: As we have

pointed out earlier, tsunami has capability to increase sporadically and
swiftly the level of typical water in the affected community, generating
flood. The water force is usually overwhelming with strong capacity to
demolish structure that comes in contact with it;

iv. Casualties and public health: The phenomenon of tsunami always occasions
the incidence of drowning that consumes many lives. Apart from drowning,
the physical infrastructure or facilities destroyed by the tsunami can also
cause injuries and deaths when being tattered by debris (UNDP &
UNDRO, 1992: 35). The affected community suffers greater risk of disease
epidemics that can potentially force the public health to its knees especially
through the decomposing dead bodies;

v. (Acute) water shortage: Tsunami can also create a situation of acute shortage of
drinking water. The destruction to infrastructures and physical structures can
infest water facilities to germs and bacteria increasing the chances of

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plaguing the affected community with water-borne diseases. For instance,

the sewage system may have got damaged and the wastes running into the
water facilities, and in a situation like that, there is high probability that
there will be epidemics of cholera and other water-borne diseases if people
drink such contaminated water. There is the likelihood that such situation
will lead to more deaths; and

vi. Food shortage: Due to very destructive nature of tsunami, the harvests, food
stocks, live-stocks and agricultural facilities can be destroyed by the tsunami
waves causing widespread food shortage to the affected community. This
will, therefore, affect the capacity of the affected community to ensure any
food security to its people for some time. But in communities where largely,
there is absence of adequate disaster mitigation measures and practices, it
may take a very long time to recover from such food shortage, if they ever
get out of it.

3.1.2 Predictability

Tsunami cannot be adequately predicted because of the very little warning signal it
gives before it strikes. Though, the Tsunami Warning System in Pacific has been very
helpful in monitoring seismic activity and it alerts on the probable occurrence of
tsunami but the waves mounted by earthquake may quickly smack the nearby shores
and within very short time the tsunami waves may hit the coastal areas, providing very
little or no opportunity to alert the public to embark on evacuation immediately (see
UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 35).

3.1.3. Vulnerability

The experience of tsunami in a community is largely hinged on a number of

contributory factors which include:

i. Location of Communities: The issue is that those communities in low lying

coastal regions always appear to be more vulnerable to the incidence of
tsunami;

ii. Another factor is absence of mitigation measures and preparedness. For

instance, in several communities situated on low lying regions, we still have
buildings being erected without fortifying such buildings with tsunami
resistance materials;

iii. Ability of any community to issue warning and notification about hazardous
events will largely determine its capacity to reduce the effect of such hazardous
incidents on its people and environment. Those communities that have no public
alert or warning systems to promptly and adequately notify the people are more
likely to record higher casualty rate than those communities that have effective
warning systems. Again, preparedness is also vital for hazard

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mitigation, and where there is lack of adequate evacuation plans, there is

tendency that such communities will be more vulnerable to hazardous events
like tsunami;

iv. Communities that fail to educate its people on security risk and disaster
reduction are likely to experience more devastation from the incidence of
tsunami and other hazardous events because people have no knowledge of how
to act creatively and effectively in mitigating the effect of hazards on them; and

v. Communities that have little or no protective plans are more vulnerable to

hazards like tsunami and suffer more destructions than those communities with
appropriate protective plans.

3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

The following risk reduction and preparedness measures can assist:

i. Fortifying the houses near the coasts with tsunami reduction materials;

ii. Erection of water barriers including break waters to reduce the force of water
created by flood engineered by tsunami (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 35). This
action is likely to reduce the level of damage that may be propelled by tsunami
incident;

iii. Hazard mapping is also essential in mitigating the impact of any hazardous
situation on the people in any given community. Through hazard mapping we
will be able to identify potential hazards, their patterns and trends as well as
the level of threat they constitute to the wellbeing of the community at large;

iv. Evacuation plans are also very important to enhance the capacity of any
community in mitigating or reducing the impact of hazardous events like
tsunami. It is very germane to have effective preparedness plans by creating
sufficient evacuation exits through which people can escape the onslaught that
may be occasioned by any hazardous events like tsunami. It is also important
to educate people on protective actions that they can undertake to reduce the
effect of hazardous situations like tsunami; and

v. Putting in place effective warning systems can also be helpful in providing

prompt notification and alert to the public whenever it is noticeable that
tsunami waves are approaching the coast. This will enable people to prepare
themselves against the impending hazard. If the waves give opportunity for
quick evacuation, people can then exit the affected place without wasting time
because each minute counts in reducing the devastating effect of tsunami.

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3.1.5. Impact assessment techniques

In analysing the incidence of tsunami as a threat, it is important to conduct

assessments of the hazardous situation with the use of a number of techniques that
include:

i. Aerial surveys of all areas or communities close to coasts;

ii. Damage surveys to determine the level of damage associated with the
hazardous situation; and

iii. Evaluations of public warning and alert systems and evacuation plans to
measure level of community’s vulnerability to the hazard and its preparedness
towards hazard mitigation.

3.1.6. Individual safety measures

i. If one is at home, he/she is expected to inform the people around including

his/her family and neighbours immediately he/she hears the public warning
about tsunami or any other occurring hazard, so that they will become aware of
the situation at hand. This will afford them the opportunity to prepare
themselves against the hazardous situation and act promptly if there are
evacuation plans.

Meanwhile, due to the nature of tsunami, giving little or no time to embark on

public evacuation of the affected areas, it is important for individuals to move
to parts of their houses where no heavy objects can fall on them resulting from
the force of the waves or water;

ii. If one is outside, look for a place where no heavy structures or materials like
electric poles or cables or trees etc can collapse on you to avoid sustaining
injuries that may make you unconscious or die or even electrocuted;

iii. Drawbacks can also be very useful in providing brief warnings to people when
tsunami waves are approaching the land. Drawback is usually experienced
before the occurrence of tsunami. It occurs due to the fact that “tectonic plate
on one side of the fault line sinks suddenly during the earthquake, causing the
overlaying water to propagate outwards with the trough of the wave at its
front” (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsunami). For instance, in 2004, a ten-year old
girl, Tilly Smith who resided in Surrey, England, through lessons given to her
about tsunami by her geography teacher, Mr. Andrew Kearney, saved the lives
of many people.

Little Tilly was on Maikhao beach in Phuket, Thailand with her parents and
sister when she noticed some drawbacks which signified that tsunami waves
were approaching the coast, and she alerted her parents. Immediately, the

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parents notified the people that tsunami was most likely to occur very soon,
saving the lives of many on the beach. It is also important to note that in some
exceptional cases, drawbacks are not experienced and the people will be
caught unaware by tsunami as evident in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
whereby there was no drawback on African and some other eastern coasts that
were also hit by the tsunami, largely for the reason that the “wave moved
downwards on the eastern side of the fault line and upwards on the western
side” (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsunami).

iv. If one is on the beach a vibration of the land is noticed, you should make sure
that other people are alerted promptly and proceed immediately to higher
ground without waiting for tsunami warning ( ://www.kjc.gov.my/english/
education/seismology/whatistsunami.html).

v. Whenever a public warning is issued about tsunami, if you are not at home,
make sure you immediately look for a building and move to the topmost floor
of the building.

vi. If you are on board of a ship or boat when you get an alert about the occurrence
of tsunami, avoid sailing to the port because tsunami waves can potentially
“...cause rapid changes in water level and unpredictable dangerous current in
harbours and ports” ( ://www.kjc.gov.my/english/education/seismology/
whatistsunami.html), which can pose a great danger to the lives of those on
board.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you analyse tsunami as a security threat?

3.2 Analysing Earthquake as a Geological Hazard/Threat

Mythologically, earthquake was believed among the Greek to be caused by Poseidon

who was the god of earthquake. It was argued by the Greek mythology that whenever
Poseidon was in a state of sadness, he would smack the land with a trident, causing the
earth to quake. It was also claimed that this god also used earthquake as a tool of fear,
warning people of the damaging effect that his punishment on men and their
environment(s), as a way of admonishing men not to offend him (see Sellers, 1997).

Conceptually, an Earthquake is an unexpected and hazardous vibration resulting from

the sudden shake of the Earth's crust. The degree of the vibrations may differ. The
earthquake can be said to have two points. The first point concerns the “.... point of
origin underground”, and this is known as “focus” while the second point is usually
“directly above the focus on the surface”, and it is referred to as the “epicentre”
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake).

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One unique character about earthquake is that it does not constitute any danger to
people or animals on its own, but its consequences such as collapse of building, felling
of electric poles, electric shock, fire, to mention a few that usually cause harm to
people. This means that it is imperative to have safety measures in place and
encourage hazard mitigation best practices to avoid disaster. Let us consider some
other definitions of earthquake.

An earthquake (also known as a tremor or temblor) is the result of a sudden release of

energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes are recorded with a
seismometer, also known as a seismograph (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth quake).

Sudden motion in Earth caused by abrupt release of slowly accumulated strain.

Shaking of the Earth caused by a sudden movement of rock beneath its surface
.Geocities.com/seiswash/terms and definitions.htm

It is the rupture of the geological faults that often causes earthquake but nuclear
experiments, landslides, mine blasts as well as volcanic activity can also provoke the
earth to quake. Some of the incidents of earthquake may include the 2004 Indian
Ocean earthquake, which was the second largest earthquake in history. The attendant
tsunamis occasioned by this earthquake affected several countries including Pakistan
and India, leading to the death of over two hundred thousand people.

3.2.1 Effects of Earthquake

There is no doubt that the effects of earthquake can be very devastating not only to
man but also the general ecosystem. Some of these effects include the following:

i. Tremulous shaking of land and ground ruptures. These are the major effects of
earthquake, leading to serious damage to buildings and other rigid
structures like bridges, street lights and their stands, electric poles, bill
boards, among others. The amount of damage and destruction that will be
occasioned by the incident of earthquake depends largely on the complex
combination of the earthquake magnitude, the distance from epicentre as
well as the geological and geomorphologic conditions that may magnify or
lessen wave propagation (see ://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc
/contents.html). However, ground acceleration is often used in measuring
the degree of ground shaking;

ii. Fires: Another effect that can be caused by earthquake is occurrence of fires.
After the shaking, a lot of structures and building get damaged or destroyed
including petroleum/gas pipelines and facilities. As earlier mentioned, the
quake can also fell electric-pole and damage power-lines, and in the process,
the spark that may come from the power-line or electric-poles may

78
CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats have contact with gas or
petrol to generate fire. The pressure of these fires
may be so high that it will be very difficult to contain them. An example of
where the earthquake caused lesser threat than its fire outbreak effect was
the 1906 San Francisco earthquake where many people died as a result of
fires that accompanied the earthquake incident (see Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.);

iii. Soil liquefaction: One of the effects of earthquake is soil liquefaction, which
involves a situation whereby soil losses its firmness and transforms from
solid to liquid. The situation is caused when water-saturated granular
material like sand losses its strength and in the process its solidity becomes
liquid, resulting in the sinking of buildings because the soil does not have
strength to carry the weight of these structures any longer due to the quake
of the earth as experienced in the 1964 Alaska earthquake (Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.); and

iv. Other effects of earthquake may include tsunami and flood, which will be
discussed later in this unit, as well as massive destruction of lives and
property. Earthquake can also lead to outbreak of diseases and food
insecurity resulting from the damage.

3.2.2 Predictability

Earthquake cannot be adequately predicted but there are scientific approaches through
which its occurrence can be determined based on probability with very little or no
precision about the timing of the occurrence. Forecasting can be useful in observing
seismic activity and historical incidence to determine the susceptibility of any
community to the incidence of earthquake (see UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 34).

3.2.3 Vulnerability

i. The location of the community usually determines its vulnerability to

earthquake. The reason is that those communities found on the seismic areas
are prone to experience earthquake;

ii. In the settlements that lie on seismic areas, it is imperative to ensure that houses
are built in such a way that they will be resistant to ground vibration that will be
occasioned by the quake of the earth. In those communities where people build
or erect buildings without appreciating the importance of fortifying their
buildings in such a way that they can resist being submerged by the ground
motion or vibration that will be generated by earthquake, shows that such
communities will be much vulnerable to the incidence of earthquake.

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Hence, the probability of recording high casualty and physical destruction rate
resulting from the incidence of earthquake will be high in such communities;
iii. Communities especially those considered densely populated settlements that
are found in the seismic areas where there is high occupancy of buildings are
more vulnerable to incidence of earthquake. Due to high rent requests,
buildings will just be erected anyhow especially in those places where little or
no importance is given to physical planning in order to accommodate most
(prospective) house seekers. This will further create tension on the land;

iv. Risk education and knowledge about hazards should be given to the public,
and where the people have very little or no knowledge about risk and hazard,
there is tendency that such communities will become vulnerable to hazards
including earthquake. The reason is that many of the people due to their lack of
risk education will not be able to act adequately well when confronted with
hazardous events like earthquake; and

v. Absence of effective public warning system makes any community vulnerable

to hazardous events or threats.

3.2.4. Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Hazard mapping can assist in no small measure to reduce the effect that the
occurrence of earthquake can have on any community. Through hazard
mapping we will be able to identify potential hazards, their patterns and trends
as well as the level of threat they constitute to the wellbeing of the community
at large. Again, hazard mapping guide us in making right decisions regarding
the way we can mitigate hazards like earthquake. For instance, by mapping
hazards, we will be able to identify which communities that are in seismic
areas (thereby being prone to earthquake) and ensure that buildings are not
erected anyhow to reduce the incidence of building collapse resulting from the
vibration that often characterises earthquake;

ii. Evacuation plans are also very important to enhance the capacity of any
community in mitigating the impact of hazardous events like earthquake or/and
reducing the losses that may accompany any hazardous situations like
earthquake;

iii. Public awareness about hazards and mitigation strategies should be promoted,
so that people will find it easy to act effectively, promptly and adequately on
their own in responding to hazardous situations or threat;

iv. There should be effective warning systems to alert and notify the public of the
occurrence of any hazardous events like earthquake;

v. There should be adequate evacuation plans.

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3.2.5. Impact assessment techniques

The basic impact assessment tools for earthquake include earthquake scales (Modified
Mercalli, MSK) as well as earthquake damage and usability forms.

3.2.6. Individual safety measures

i. One of the safety tips to the management of earthquake before it occurs, is to

always ensure that you equip your homes with drinking water, adequate food
(particularly the non-perishable food items like rice), transistor or any mobile
radio with ordinary or rechargeable batteries, torch with batteries, as well as
first-aid kits;

ii. It is imperative to educate the public on how to manage their home appliances
and build in themselves culture of safety like switching off electricity or/and
gas cooker or/and electrical appliances when they are not in use. Apart from
safety, such culture helps families to save money, which would have gone into
settling of huge energy bills as well as conservation of energy.

iii. You are also expected to always have your phone charged and you should
endeavour to keep the backup copy of the list of contacts on your phone in a
separate place most preferably a book. So, when your phone is misplaced or
stolen or destroyed, you can still have a backup through which you can access
your list of contacts. By having the contacts, you can easily contact any other
relative(s) or friends to alert him/her of the situation of earthquake. By doing
this, you will enable others to reach you to monitor the state of safety of the
affected person(s). Apart from that, you will be able to alert others who may be
coming to the place of the prevailing hazardous circumstance with the aim of
reducing casualty. Here, one will be expected to call relative(s) or friend(s) that
are far away from the site where the hazard is taking place;

iv. As we may already have been aware, earthquake is one natural hazard that
cannot be predicted by any modern technology. Often times, when an
earthquake is about to occur, there is loud sound that usually indicates the
arrival of an earthquake. You are only left with very little or no time to prepare
yourself against the hazard, and any important steps that you take at this
material time will go a long way to determine how much you will be able to
mitigate or reduce the losses that such a hazard may attract. During the hazard,
it is expected of you to know some important steps to take so that the
hazardous situation will not have too negative or destructive impact on you and
those around you. Steps to take should include;

v. You should take cover by looking for a very safe place where you can veil
yourself against any falling objects like wall, ceiling fan, etc. It is advisable to

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lie under a table or well-built furniture, and you should also make sure that the
furniture are well positioned to prevent it from being stumbled;

vi. You should also avoid standing in doorways because of the possibility of
having violent motion slamming the door against you. By avoiding standing in
doorways will you guard against being hit by any flying objects, some of which
may be very deadly;

vii. If you find yourself in a tall building, you should avoid using the lift to get out
of that building. It is advisable that you negotiate your escape from such
building going through the stairs. The emergency nature of this hazard
(earthquake) does not usually give much time for evacuation. Therefore, you can
stay where you are or better-still proceed to the uppermost floor of the building
if the task will not be strenuous. This will afford you an opportunity to be
reached by an emergency if there is a case of collapse of the building. The
rescue teams usually reach the victims on the uppermost segment of the rubble;

viii. If you are outside, ensure that you are in a open place where no buildings or
electric wires and poles or trees or street lights or telephone facilities or any
other heavy objects can fall on you or get you electrocuted;

ix. It is also important to distance oneself from any electric wires and avoid
touching any metals especially those in contact with electric cables. The reason
is that there may be electric current in those wires and metals, capable of
getting anybody that touches any of such objects electrocuted;

x. After the incident of earthquake, resulting from the presence of debris in the
aftermath of earthquake, you are advised to wear cover shoes to avoid your foot
being exposed to any dangerous particles or sharp objects that may get you
injured or infected with a disease;

xi. It is important to also note that after initial tremor from the earthquake, in the
coming days, week or even months, aftershocks can make weakened structures
to collapse. So, if one hears a tremor emanating from the sound of collapsing
structures, one should not get traumatised, and should expect such to happen in
the aftermath of an earthquake;

xii. As a result of the foregoing, it is pertinent to vacate all the buildings affected by
the quake until their conditions are ascertained by the relevant building
engineers. If one’s house is found to be structurally damaged, it is expected that
the person and his/her co-occupants should immediately vacate the building to
prevent avoidable deaths or injuries;

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you analyse earthquake as a natural threat to security?

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4.0 CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that the capacity of any community to respond to hazardous

situations depends largely on its resilience and preparedness towards risk reduction
and hazard mitigation. The recovery capacity of any community, wishing to mitigate
the effect that the occurrence of any hazard may have on her and its people, must be
substantial enough to withstand the threat or hazard. If no efforts are made to mitigate
or reduce the impact of hazard or attack, there is possibility that such hazard will result
in disaster.

5 . 0 S U M MAR Y

In this unit, we have been able to cover two of the major geological hazards or threats:
tsunami and earthquake. We began the study by examining the meaning of tsunami
and we proceeded to analyse the subject (tsunami) by looking at several issues
concerning it including its effects, its predictability etc. Thereafter, we defined
earthquake and analysed it as well by examining those issues that bother on its effects,
predictability, vulnerability of communities to it, how its impact on environment and
people can be mitigated, its impact assessment techniques and finally the safety
measures that can be taken by individuals to reduce its adverse effect on them and
their communities. It is my belief that you have found this unit very thought-provoking
and intellectually stimulating.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Analyse tsunami and earthquake as geological forms of security threats or hazards.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Sellers, P. (1997). Poseidon. Encyclopedia Mythica. Available on Error! Hyperlink

reference not valid.. Retrieved on 2 September 2008.

UNDP & UNDRO (1992). An Overview of Disaster Management (2nd Edition).

Disaster Management Training Programme.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org.wiki.Tsunami. Retrieved on 5 September, 2009.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/contents.html. Retrieved on 30 August,

2009.

.geocities.com/seiswash/terms_and_definitions.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://www.kjc.gov.my/english/education/seismology/whatistsunami.html. Retrieved on 6
September, 2009.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 6 September, 2009.

UNIT 2

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

ANALYSIS OF GEOLOGICAL SECURITY THREATS/HAZARDS II

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Analysing Landslide as a Geological Hazard/Threat
3.2 Analysing Volcanic Eruption as a Geological Hazard/Threat
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m ma r y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

In the previous lesson or unit, we focused on the analysis of two of the basic types of
geological security threat or hazard: tsunami and earthquake. We explained their
meaning, their effects on any people or community that experience them. We also
discussed various factors or conditions that often make any community or people
vulnerable to those hazardous events as well as some other issues that bother on the
analysis of the risk posed by those threats to the wellbeing and survival of any
community.

In this unit, we shall continue from we stopped in the last unit, and thereby we shall
discuss another set of geological security threats or hazards including landslide and
volcanic eruption. Undoubtedly, geological forms of threat or hazard usually have
very adverse impact on man and general ecosystem due to the high level of
destructions in human and material terms that often characterise their occurrence.
For instance, in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami episode, no less that 200,000 people
were reported killed while more than 1 million people lost their shelter and/or means
of livelihood. Another example is the November 9, 2001 Amboori debris flow
(landslide) incident in Kerala, India, killing no less than 39 people (see Kuriakose et
al. 2008).

Apart from destruction of human lives and property, geological hazards can impose
acute food shortage or food insecurity on any affected community due to extensive
damage of livestocks, harvest, plantations, and food storage facilities. It is as a result
of the mammoth negative implications that these geological threats or hazards have on
the continued survival of any community and development that many state and non-
state actors have been creating frameworks through which they can mitigate or reduce
the impact of these hazardous events. For instance, an incident of earthquake can
wipe-out in minutes the development that has taken a community several years to
accomplish. In furtherance of our study on the geological forms of threat, we shall
beam our searchlight on landslide and volcanic eruption.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

2.0. OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Explain the meaning of landslide;

• Analyse landslide as a form of geological security threat or hazard;

• Describe volcanic eruption; and

• Examine volcanic eruption as a geological type of threat or hazard.

3.0. MAIN BODY

3.1 Analysing Landslide as a Geological Hazard/Threat

Landslide is another form of geological hazard. It is a natural security threat that can
pose serious risk to any people or community. It also involves mud flows, debris
flows, earth failures among other geological conditions, and it is usually caused by
rain, floods, earthquakes among other natural causes. Apart from the natural causes,
there are several human factors that can also contribute to the incidence of landslide,
and these include grading, terrain cutting and filling, over development of an area
among others.

Landslide has been occurring in the world since the prehistoric time and an example of
the recorded incidents of landslide in prehistoric time was the Ruatoria debris
avalanche off North Island New Zealand, which was calculated at 3,000 km3 in
volume and occurred 170,000 years ago (Kuriakose, Sankarm & Muraleedharan,
2008). How do we define landslide? Simply, landslide can be defined as:

...rock, earth, or debris flows on slopes due to gravity. They can occur on any terrain
given the right conditions of soil, moisture, and the angle of slope. Integral to the
natural process of the earth's surface geology, landslides serve to redistribute soil and
sediments in a process that can be in abrupt collapses or in slow gradual slides. Such is
the nature of the earth's surface dynamics (://www.ussartf.org/ landslides.htm).

...(or landslip) is a geological phenomenon which includes a wide range of ground

movement, such as rock falls, deep failure of slopes and shallow debris flows, which
can occur in offshore, coastal and onshore environments (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.).

A natural disaster that involves the breakup and downhill flow of rock, mud, water and
anything caught in the path (://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/landslide).
A sudden movement of rock and soil down a slope (.macmillanmh.com/
science/2008/student/na/grade4/glossary/l.html).

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Downward movement of a slope and materials under the force of gravity (.ak-
prepared.com/plans/word_docs/StateHazardMitigationPlan07/07%20SHRMP%20Ap
pendices/Appendix_2_Definitions.doc).

3.1.1. Effects of Landslide

i. Physical destruction: The amount of damage to infrastructure and other

physical facilities can be very devastating, and capable of overwhelming the
capacity of any affected community to sustain its development. Through the
attendant destructions occasioned by landslides, the affected community may
experience collapse of bridge(s), poles carrying telecommunication and electric
cables, rubbles adorning the streets capable of blocking the roads and affecting
traffic flow, among other physical damages;

ii. Food insecurity: Landslides can potentially reduce the capacity of the affected
communities to feed themselves due to possible extensive damage that
landslides might have inflicted on the livestock, food storage facilities, harvest
as well as plantings. Landslides can cause flooding and reduction in
agricultural productivity;

iii. Casualties: Landslides can lead to the death of many people and can also cause
various degrees of injury among the affected people. Slope failures and
mudflows can cause high fatality as many people can be buried by the rubbles;
and

iv. Distortion of development: Resulting from the devastating damage that

landslide inflicts on physical structures and infrastructure of any affected
community, it retards the development of that community. For instance, an
incident of landslide can bring down houses and infrastructure like bridge,
shopping mall, office buildings, recreation centres, communication facilities,
power lines among others social infrastructure, that may have taken the
affected community decades to attain, within a few hours or even minutes.

3.1.2 Predictability

There is no doubt that landslide occurs more than any other geological hazards or
threats. It has many forms of movement including falls, slides, topples, lateral spread,
and flows. It can also occur as secondary effects of earthquakes, volcanic eruption as
well as heavy storms. On the question of its predictability, environmental scientists
and disaster management experts rely largely on information gathered on the
frequency of its occurrence as well as its extent and effects to determine those
communities or communities that are susceptible to landslide. Experts arrive at their
decision in identifying the communities that are at greater risk of incidence of
landslide by looking also at the geology, geomorphology, hydrology and climatology,
and vegetation of the communities.

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3.1.3. Vulnerability

The factors that contribute to the vulnerability of any community to landslide may
include:

i. The location of a community largely determines how vulnerable it will be to

the incidence of landslide. The communities that are sited on steep slopes or
softer soil or cliff tops are usually vulnerable to landslides;

ii. Studies have also shown that those communities that are sited on the base of
steep slopes or on mouths of streams near the mountain valleys are vulnerable
to landslides (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 37);

iii. The buildings erected, the roads built and the communication lines mounted in
mountain areas can also experience landslides;

iv. The buildings without any solid foundation may also be vulnerable to
landslides; and

v. Communities with very little or no hazard mitigation education are always

vulnerable not only to landslide but also other hazardous events because they
will exhibit low preparedness attitude and recovery capacity in responding to
hazardous situations or attacks such that such threats can easily lead into
disasters.

3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be a very important tool in the

mitigation of landslide because it allows us to collect, store, manipulate,
display and analyse a wide-spectrum of spatially referenced data very
adequately and effectively (Clerici et al. 2002: 8);

ii. Hazard analysis and mapping is very vital in mitigating landslides by providing
us relevant information on ways to reduce the adverse impact that landslide
may have on any people or community. It also enables us to develop
framework and policy decisions for sustainable land use planning. Again,
through this technique we can identify the factors that contribute to the
incidence of landslide and measure how much each of the factors contribute to
landslide through which we can establish relation among the factors with the
aim to making prediction about future occurrence of landslide (Chen & Wang,
2007);

iii. The use of satellite imagery along with GIS can also assist us to reduce the
adverse effect of landslide because it allows us to create maps regarding the
possible occurrence of landslides in future (Fabbri et al, 2003). Through
generation of maps, communities that experience or are likely to experience

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landslides will step-up their preparedness towards mitigation of this hazardous

situation. With the use of the maps produced by satellite imagery, we shall be
able to identify locations where previous incidents of landslide have taken place
and show the locations where future landslides will probably occur.

However, by establishing relationship between previous events of landslide and

locations of possible future hazardous events of landslide, we shall be able to
predict using some geologic factors especially geomorphology, land use and
hydrogeology (see Clerici et al., 2002) as well as lithology to determine those
locations that will most likely experience landslides in future for exhibiting
similar conditions that characterised past events of landslide (Lee & Talib,
2005);

iv. Risk education is also important in reducing the effects of landslides on any
community or people. It assists to increase the consciousness of any people
towards improving their preparedness and it also enhances their capacity to act
creatively, promptly and effectively when confronted with any hazardous
situations like landslide such that the masses can respond on their own without
waiting for emergency workers or security practitioners; and

v. There should be regular evaluation of monitoring, warning and alert systems to

test their effectiveness and in ensuring their optimal performance.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you analyse landslide as a form of geological hazard ot threat?

3.2 Analysing Volcanic Eruption as a Geological Hazard/Threat

Volcanic eruption is another form of geological hazard or threat. According to Fank &
Wagnalls Standard Dictionary, volcanic eruption can be described as a hazardous
event that involves:

...an opening in the earth’s surface surrounded by an accumulation of ejected material,

forming a hill or mountain, from which heated matter is or has been ejected.

Volcanic eruption can also be defined as a hazardous situation whereby:

Magma pushes upward through volcanic vent by pressure and effectiveness of

dissolved gases (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 36).

There are several types of volcanic eruption, which include cindercones, shield
volcanoes, composite volcanoes and lava domes. Whenever volcanic eruption occurs
one of the fundamental features that it bears is gushing-out of magma to the surface
and this is known as lava. Also, there are solid particles driven out resulting from the
eruption, which are known as tephra. Usually, volcanic eruption constitutes a major

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security threat to any people or community through the destructive materials such as
ash, pyroclastic flows, mud, debris as well as lava flows that it emits. These materials
can destroy plants, infrastructure as well as cause serious injuries or death to human
beings and animals.

3.2.1 Effects of Volcanic Eruption

i. Destruction of infrastructure and physical facilities: One of the effects of

volcanic eruption is widespread destruction of physical structures and
infrastructure. The pyroclastic, lava flows or mud can destroy infrastructure;

ii. Casualty and public health hazard: Pyroclastic flows, mud flows and even lava
flows as well as toxic gases which are produced by volcano are very capable of
causing deaths to human beings and animals within the affected community or
area. The amount of respiratory problems ejected by this hazard can be
enormous, likely to cause deaths and respiratory ailments among the affected
people. The decaying bodies of those who have died resulting from the
hazardous event can cause epidemics and pose a huge challenge to public
health of the affected community;

iii. Water shortage: Some of the destructive materials produced by volcano can
also contaminate water capable of causing acute shortage of drinking water;

iv. Food insecurity: Volcano can also mount a situation of food shortage on the
affected community. This hazardous event can destroy the plants, food storage
facilities, harvest as well as cause great danger to livestock. The poisonous
gases that it produces when inhaled can lead to the death of high number of
livestock. Unless, there had been adequate mitigation measures, the
community that experienced volcanic eruption was likely to experience the
problem of food shortage; and

v. The huge amount of destruction often occasioned by volcano usually

undermines the development of the affected community. One of the reasons is
that, rather than providing further development, the affected community will
be grappling with ways through which it can replace the infrastructure and
other developmental facilities destroyed as a result of the incident of volcanic
eruption.

3.2.2 Predictability

The incidence of volcanic eruption cannot be adequately predicted. Meanwhile,

studies on the history of phenomena of volcanoes on any areas or communities
especially those located on the volcanic belt as well as seismic activity among other

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geological observations can assist us to identify and determine where future volcanoes
are likely to be experienced.

3.2.3. Vulnerability

There are several factors that determine the vulnerability of any community or area to
the incidence of volcanic eruption, and some of which include:

i. The location of the community is one of the basic factors. The reason is that
those communities or settlements that are located on the flanks of volcanoes
will likely be more susceptible to volcanic eruption;

ii. Another factor is that those communities or settlements that lie within
historical paths of mud or lava flows will be vulnerable to volcanoes;

iii. Those communities that lie on the volcanic belt where structures are erected or
built without any consideration for designing their roofs in such a way that
they can be resistant to ash accumulation (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 36);

iv. Areas where there are explosive materials are likely to be much vulnerable in
the occurrence of volcanoes. For instance, the areas that have the presence of
large amount of weapons especially explosives will definitely experience
greater amount of casualties and physical damage if volcano occurs. The fact is
that the heated materials produced by volcano, apart from the destruction that
they will cause to the affected communities or people, the explosives will also
be triggered which will further complicate the hazardous situation. In a
situation like this, it is more likely that such communities will have the hazard
transiting or moving to disaster thereby leading to huge loss of lives and
property;

v. For communities especially those that are located on the volcanic belt where
there are no adequate evacuation plans, the casualty rate and level of
destruction will be high; and

vi. In communities where there are no effective and adequate warning systems,
there is high probability that such communities or settlement will be very
vulnerable to any hazardous events including volcanic eruption. The reason is
that most people will be unaware of the impeding danger, and before they
know what is happening many of them must have been consumed by the
hazardous event.

3.2.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. One of the volcano mitigation measures is location planning. Through location

planning, we will be able to map-out those areas considered close to volcano
slopes, so that we will not allow important activities to take place there. For

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instance, it is not proper to cite trade centres anywhere without considering the
geologic conditions of the areas.

Therefore, if an international trade complex is located in an area that is found

on volcanic belt, apart from putting the lives of a large number of people
(buyers and sellers) at risk, the huge amount of money spent in building such a
complex and various articles or commodities being traded will be put to a waste
in the event of the occurrence of volcanic eruption;

ii. Risk education is also important in mitigating the impact of volcanic eruption.
Through risk education people will have enough awareness about the security
risk posed by volcanoes and identify approaches and ways through which they
can reduce the adverse effect such hazardous events may have on them
individually and collectively. There is no doubt that through risk education,
people’s preparedness to act creatively and effectively against the hazardous
situation will rapidly increase, so that they will be able to respond by reducing
the losses that volcanoes can cause;

iii. Evacuation plans are also very essential because it affords the communities
where volcanoes are experienced to create routes through which affected people
can be evacuated promptly and effectively to safer areas to reduce the loss of
lives that such hazardous event can mount on them; and

iv. Efforts can also be made to monitor volcanoes through which we can generate
adequate information about volcanic activity. In providing this information to
the people, there is tendency that their level of preparedness will increase such
that they will be able to respond well in the occurrence of volcano by engaging
in actions that can help to reduce the adverse impact that the hazardous
situation can have on them.

3.2.5. Impact assessment techniques

i. The ground and aerial surveys can be used to assess the impact of volcanoes;

ii. Assessment of evacuation plans; and

iii. Capacity and vulnerability assessment can also be used to identify areas of
weakness of any community in response to volcanic eruption and/or any other
hazards.

3.2.6. Individual safety measures

xiii. One of the safety tips against volcanic eruption is to always ensure that your home
is equipped with drinking water, adequate food (particularly the nonperishable
food items like rice), transistor or any mobile radio with ordinary or

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rechargeable batteries, torch with batteries, as well as first-aid kits. But it is

more preferable to have transistor radio with ordinary batteries, which you can
change to keep yourself updated as regards information concerning the volcano.
It is important to know that rechargeable radio may disappoint if the battery
current becomes emptied after a long use, thus, one cannot rule out total
blackout during the occurrence of volcano and even shortly after it has lasted;

xiv. It is also important to prepare yourself towards mitigating the effect of volcano
on your household by identifying places in your house that can be used as
cover in the event of emergence of volcanic eruption;

xv. You should always have your phone fully charged and keep a backup copy of
the list of contacts on your phone in a separate place most preferably a book.
So, when your phone is misplaced or stolen or destroyed, you can still have a
backup through which you can access your list of contacts. By having the
contacts, you can easily contact any other relative(s) or friends to alert him/her
of the situation of volcanic eruption. By doing this, you will enable your
relatives and friends to monitor the state of your safety;

xvi. Efforts should be made to fortify the house you are staying with roofs that are
resistant to damage by volcanic materials;

xvii. If you are outside when you get the notice about the hazardous event, make
sure you locate a safe place to seek refuge or better negotiate for a safe
evacuation route. It is always important to plan oneself against hazardous
events by locating before-hand those exit points that can be considered as
evacuation routes;

xviii. Make sure you keep a distance from windows, book shelves and sharp objects
that can harm you when volcano occurs; and

xix. After the incident of volcano, you should ensure that you and your household
wear cover shoes to prevent your foot from being exposed to the harmful
remnants of the volcanic materials.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you explain ways through which volcanic eruption can constitute threat to
any people or communities?

4.0 CONCLUSION

From our discussion of various types of geological threat, it appears that these hazards
including earthquake are very destructive and have the capacity to undermine the
development of communities or people. It is more worrisome that these geological

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hazards can hardly be predicted but through some approaches and techniques,
predictions can still be made about their future occurrence by considering the history
of their occurrence, the geologic conditions among other observations of the
communities that are considered prone to any of these hazards.

There is no doubt that these hazards have the tendency of transiting to disasters due to
their rapid onset. They give little or no time for evacuation and for this reason it is
important for any community to develop viable mitigation framework through which
people can be promptly alerted or notified about any hazardous event. It is also
important for every community to put in place adequate evacuation plans, hazard
mapping initiatives, risk education, and other measures that can assist us in mitigating
hazard and managing disaster.

5 . 0 S U M MA R Y

In this unit, we continued our study on geological forms or types of threat or hazard.
Our first area of discourse was to look at the definition of landslide. In furtherance of
our analytical dissection of the subject (landslide) we examined the adverse effects that
it produces when it occurs in any community, and we also discussed other relevant
issues including its (landslide) predictability, those factors that can make any
community vulnerable to the incidence of landslide, risk reduction and preparedness
strategies for hazard mitigation among others.

The second and last geological type of threat discussed was volcanic eruption. We
began beaming our searchlight on the subject by defining it, and subsequently we
analysed its various destructive effects and predictability. Thereafter, we explained
those factors that make people or communities susceptible to volcanoes, some of the
steps that can be taken to reduce the risk of the threat and people’s preparedness
towards reducing the losses that may accompany the occurrence of volcano among
other issues. By and large, this unit can be considered to be interactive and
communicative.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Describe landslide and volcanic eruption and list any three effects that each of them
can have on people or communities.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Chen, Z. & Wang, J. (2007). Landslide Hazard Mapping using Logistic Regression
Model in Mackenzie Valley, Canada. Natural Hazards 42:75-89.
Clerici, A., Perego, S., Tellini, C., & Vescavi, P. (2002). A Procedure for Landslide
Susceptibility Zonation by the Conditional Analysis Method. Geomorphology
48(4):349-364.

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Fabbri, A., Chung, C., Cendrero, A., & Remondo, J. (2003). Is Prediction of Future
Landslides Possible with a GIS? Natural Hazards 30: 487-499.

Funk & Wagnalls Standard Dictionary (1962). International Edition. New York: Funk
& Wagnalls.

Kuriakose, S.L., Sankar, G. & Muraleedharan, C. (2008). History of Landslide

Susceptibility and a Chorology of Landslide Prone Areas in the Western Ghats of
Kerala, India. Environmental Geology. Also available on Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.. Retrieved on 20 September, 2009.

Lee, S. & Talib, J.A. (2005). Probabilistic Landslide Susceptibility and Factor Effect
Analysis. Environmental Geology 47: 982-990.

UNDP & UNDRO (1992). An Overview of Disaster Management (2nd Edition).

Disaster Management Training Programme.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 10 October, 2009.

://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/landslide. Retrieved on October, 2009.

.ak-prepared.com/plans/word_docs/StateHazardMitigationPlan07/07%20SHR
MP%20Appendices/Appendix_2_Definitions.doc. Retrieved on October, 2009.

.macmillanmh.com/science/2008/student/na/grade4/glossary/l.html. Retrieved on
October, 2009.

://www.ussartf.org/landslides.htm. Retrieved on October, 2009.

UNIT 3

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC SECURITY THREATS/HAZARDS

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security
Threats CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Analysing Hurricane as a Climatic Hazard/Threat
3.2 Analysing Flood as a Climatic Hazard/Threat
3.3 Analysing Drought as Climatic Hazard/Threat
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The phenomena of hurricane, flood and drought have increased in Africa and
elsewhere due to climate change and environmental pollution. The incident of
significant variability in climate has been attracting growing attention among the world
population in recent times owing to its impact on man and his/her environment. The
trapping of the atmosphere with CO2 has been the major cause of climate change.

These climatic forms of security threat or hazard have adverse impact not only on man
but also on general ecosystem. It is against this background that it is incumbent on
every community and people to engage in actions that can mitigate the effect that the
occurrences of these hazards may have on them and their environment by bringing into
bear substantial measures to withstand the threat or hazard and reduce the human and
material losses that may accompany their occurrence. In this unit, we shall analyse
various climatic hazards and show how they constitute a threat to the security of any
communities or people.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define and analyse hurricane as a climatic hazard;

• Describe flood as one of the types of climatic security threat; and

• Explain the meaning of drought and show how it constitutes a threat as a

climatic hazard.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Analysing Hurricane as a Climatic Hazard/Threat

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In the last twenty years, there has been huge amount of losses in human and material
terms through the incidence of hurricane. Though, the problem is less visible in sub-
Saharan Africa compared to Asia, Oceania, North America, among others. For
instance, the destruction that emanated from Hurricane Andrew (1992) alone was
“estimated at more than $25 billion in South Florida and Louisiana and undoubtedly
would have been higher had the storm hit Miami directly” (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.). For the sake of conceptual clarity, let us at this juncture explore some of
the existing definitions of hurricane. What is a hurricane?

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure
system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by
thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of
winds near the earth's surface (://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf).

A hurricane is an intense, rotating oceanic weather system that possesses maximum

sustained winds exceeding 119 km/hr (74 mph). It forms and intensifies over tropical
oceanic regions. Hurricanes are generally smaller than storms in mid-latitudes,
typically about 500 km (311 miles) in diameter. At the ocean’s surface, the air spirals
inward in a counterclockwise direction. This cyclonic circulation becomes weaker with
height, eventually turning into clockwise (anticyclonic) outflow near the top of the
storm (://www.comet.ucar.edu/nsflab/web/hurricane/311.htm).

Source: ://www.why-is-the-sky-blue.tv/what-is-hurricane.htm

Hurricanes emanate and build-up over oceanic regions. They usually entail sea-
surface temperatures of at least 26°C (80°F) as well as “the influence of the earth’s
rotation to initiate a spinning circulation (Coriolis effect)” (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.). There are four phases to the incidence of hurricane. The first phase usually
involves tropical disturbance evident in the rain clouds such that moist air increases
and becomes cooler.

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The second phase is characterised by tropical depression with thunderstorms. Here,

there will be low pressure-winds with circular patterns. The third phase consists of
tropical storm, which usually involves wind that travels 38 mile per hour, occasioning
storm clouds and rough sea. At this stage, one does not need to be told of the impeding
danger. The last phase welcomes the incidence of hurricane itself, featuring wind that
moves at 74 miles per hour and heavy rainfall. At this stage, hurricane will get to its
climax. It is important to note that hurricane is given different names in other places,
and these names may include tropical cyclone and typhoons (see table 1.1):

Table 1.1: Hurricane and Its other Names in Different Parts of the World
Hurricanes North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea,
Northeast Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of
Mexico
Typhoons Northwest Pacific Ocean
Tropical cyclones Australia and the Indian Ocean

3.1.1 Effects of Hurricane

i. Hurricanes have destructive effects, and these effects may include storm
surges, inland flooding and tornadoes. Several lives and property have been
lost resulting from inland flooding, even more than the hurricane itself. The
storm corrodes beaches, destroys coastal highways and erodes house
foundations;

ii. Hurricanes create destructive surface winds and storm surges. High winds
bring about huge structural and environmental damage, as the storms are
usually the most destructive component of a hurricane; and

iii. A storm surge actually involves a rise in level of the sea along a coastline
necessitated by the combination of a hurricane’s surface winds and physical
geography of a coastline. The surface winds above the surface of the ocean
drive water towards the hurricane’s eye, mounting a mound of water. The
mound of water is provoked by the slope of the coastline as the hurricane
comes close to land. In a situation whereby the coastline is shallow, it will be
difficult for water to flow away from the mound and the mound grows. But, if
the coastline is deep, then water can easily “disperse and the mound may grow
slowly or disperse depending on the hurricane strength” (Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.). The destructive level of any hurricane depends largely on
the attendant wind speed and storm surge (see Table 1.2).

Table 1.2: The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity

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Category Wind Storm Surge Damage

Speed mi/hr m ft
1 119-154 74-95 1-2 4-5
2 155-178 96-110 2-3 6-8
3 179-210 111-130 3-4 9-12
4 211-250 131-155 4-6 13-18
5 >250 >155 >6 >18

Adapted from ://library.thinkquest.org/03oct/00795/hurricanetypes.html

3.1.2 Predictability

Hurricane can be predicted as landfall forecasts of its development can be made to

accurately predict its occurrence. This prediction can be made few hours before it
eventually emerges but there is possibility that there may be changes in the course of
this hazardous event, which can undermine the accuracy of our forecasting.

3.1.3. Vulnerability

There are several factors responsible for any community’s vulnerability to hurricane,
and these include:

i. Location of the community: Those communities located in the low lying

coastal areas are most susceptible to experiencing the direct of impact of
hurricane. Again, those communities that are on the adjacent areas are also
vulnerable to this hazardous situation. They often experience heavy rains and
floods;

ii. Lack of risk education;

iii. Absence of adequate and effective warning systems;

iv. Lack of evacuation plans; and

v. Culture of poor erection of buildings or structures can also make any

community vulnerable to hazardous events including hurricane. If the buildings
and other physical structures in a community that experiences hurricane are
constructed in a way non-resistant to hurricane damage, there is the tendency
that building collapse will occur. These collapsed buildings and structures can
result in huge losses in human and material terms;

3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

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i. Hazard mapping can be very useful in reducing the losses that hurricane may
attract in any community. This is because hazards that are peculiar to any
community may be identified and actions such as erection of buildings with no
solid foundation can be avoided to reduce the damage that may be occasioned
by hurricane or any other hazard;

ii. Upgrading of vegetation cover;

iii. Land use control and flood management (see UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 38);

iv. Adequate evacuation plans and risk education;

v. Effective public warning systems; and

vi. Creation of community awareness and education on hazards and hazard

mitigation can also help to reduce the effect of hurricane and any other
hazardous events on any community.

3.1.5. Impact assessment techniques

The impact assessment of hurricane can be conducted through the use of damage
assessment forms as well as aerial surveys

3.1.6. Individual safety measures

i. If you are in a new place, you should seek information about the location of
official shelters in time of hazardous incidents before hand;

ii. You should ensure that there are necessary emergency kits and protective
equipments available in your home and office, so that in time of hazard or
hurricane threat, you will be able to respond more effectively;

iii. If your area is vulnerable to hurricane attack, ensure that your home has a very
solid foundation to withstand any pressure coming from the hurricane;

iv. You must always trim down the various trees you have in your premises to
avoid a situation whereby trees will damage the building as a result of the effect
of hurricane;

v. You should also equip yourself with transistor or battery radio, so that when
there is an incident of hurricane or any other threat, you will be able to monitor
the event and get advice from experts featuring on the radio, speaking on the
hazardous situation. Following experts’ advice may be useful in mitigating the
effect of the hazard;

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vi. If you are staying at home, ensure that you have sufficient food and drinking
water that can take you beyond the time that the hurricane will last. It is also
important to keep listening to radio to monitor the hazardous event; and

vii. Always switch-off all electrical appliances not in use, or better-still switch-off
the electric circuit completely when the hurricane finally approaches;

viii. For safety, you can also lie on the floor or under a sturdy object like table or
bed if possible till the hurricane lasts. But, in a situation whereby the hazardous
incident takes very long time, you can move to interior rooms (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.); and

ix. Due to possible damage of the sewer facilities, you are advised to avoid
drinking water directly from the tap to avoid cholera and waterborne diseases.

x. Always make sure that your radio or/and television is on, to monitor the
situation and get necessary advice on which steps to take to help yourself and
others for recovery from the hazardous incident;

xi. Endeavour to keep other relatives and friends informed about the conditions
you are, so that they will be aware of your safety;

xii. You should avoid touching or stepping on fallen electric cables/wires, or any
metals in contact with electric cables to prevent electrocution; and

xiii. Do not use kerosene lanterns and candle until an expert certifies that there are
no leakages in your gas to prevent fire-outbreak.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Discuss hurricane as a climatic security threat.

3.2 Analysing Flood as a Climatic Hazard/Threat

Flood is another climatic type of natural threat. It usually involves submerging of land
by overflowing water. The meaning of flood goes beyond having volume of water like
a river or lake that runs off its normal boundaries to cause flooding, but also involves a
situation whereby the overflow is engineered by tide. Natural hazards like hurricane
and earthquake have tendency to provoke flood in the affected community. Let us
quickly define flood. In doing so, we shall be considering the definition of the term as
presented by various sources. Thus, flood can be described as:

...a general or temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of normally dry

land areas from overflow of inland or tidal waters or from the unusual and rapid
accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.).

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...the rising of a body of water and its overflowing onto normally dry land
(://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=flood).

There are several types of flood, and they include

i. Riverine floods: These can be divided into slow kinds and fast kinds. Slow
kinds usually involve water overflow generated by high rainfall or huge fall of
snow melt, which goes beyond the capacity of a river's channel. The factors
responsible for this kind of riverine floods may include heavy rainfall,
monsoons, hurricane and tropical depression, among others. Similarly, these
floods can also be caused by unexpected drainage obstruction through dumping
of refuse in canals, landslide or even ice.

In Nigeria, the problem is basically as a result of incessant dumping of debris in

the canal and putting-up a building structure on water passage, obstructing
water-flow and the situation results in flooding. On the other hand, fast kinds
are experienced as a result of "convective precipitation (intense thunderstorms)
or sudden release from an upstream impoundment created behind a dam,
landslide, or glacier” (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood);

ii. Estuarine Floods: They are normally caused as a combined effect of sea tidal
surges necessitated by storm-force winds from either a tropical cyclone or an
extra-tropical cyclone;

iii. Coastal floods: These are floods generated by severe sea storms or due to a
destructive hazard like hurricane or tsunami; and

iv. Catastrophic floods: These kinds of floods are initiated by accidental dam
breakage or earthquake or volcanic eruption, capable of creating huge
destruction of lives and property.

3.1.1 Effects of Floods

i. Destruction of infrastructure and other physical structures: Floods are capable of

causing destruction. Effects of Floods particularly the severe one can destroy
houses, sewer systems, bridges, schools, to mention a few;

ii. Casualties: The incidence of floods can result in the loss of lives and livestock.
It is capable of creating epidemic in the affected communities;

iii. Shortage of water: As a result of contamination of water, there may be (acute)

shortage of drinkable water;

iv. Loss of Environmental sustainability: The incidence of floods can lead to

shortage of resources because of the effect that such floods may have on the
development of the affected communities. In the process of flooding, many

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farms might be destroyed, and experience of food shortage will be imminent

except there is intervention to supply food to the affected communities by
government or emergency agencies and donors; and

v. Outbreak of disease(s): The event of flood can generate an outbreak of diseases

in the affected community. For instance, there is the possibility that where
flood destroyed sewer system residents will experience water-borne diseases
like cholera.

3.1.2 Predictability

The incidence of flood is predictable but in the case of storm surge or flash flood or
tsunami, very little time (a few minutes) is given between when they become
noticeable and their eventual occurrence. Notwithstanding, flood can be predicted with
the use of various applications or approaches, which include flood forecasting based on
seasonal patterns; flood plain mapping; capacity of drainage etc.

3.1.3. Vulnerability

i. Areas located on floodplains;

ii. Lack of risk education;

iii. Poor evacuation plans;

iv. Lack of effective public warning systems; and

v. Decrease in absorptive capacity of land especially through

erosion; 3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Flood control and floodplain management;

ii. Well regulated building codes and ethics;

iii. Risk education and hazard mapping;

iv. Adequate and effective evacuation plans; and

v. Provision of effective public warning and alert systems;

3.1.5. Impact assessment techniques

Damage surveys forms and aerial surveys.

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3.1.6. Individual safety measures

i. If you know that you are staying in flood-ridden location especially those
locations that are very close to the sea or river or big dam, it is germane to
discuss with members of your household on how best they can act in the event
of flood, so that they can be prepared ahead of such occurrence. This will
definitely afford them the opportunity to act appropriately, timely and
effectively in reducing the losses that a flood hazard may bear;

ii. Sometimes, the incident of flood appears without notice, it is therefore

important to identify the safest route to escape the ravaging flood;

iii. It is always advisable to have protective equipment at home. For instance

someone who knows that he/she lives very close to a river and considers the
likelihood of flooding that may be occasioned by overflow from the river
especially in a situation of continued heavy rainfall, will know that it is
important to have protective equipment (like life jacket, first-aid kits, etc) at
home;

iv. The culture of dumping wastes into the canals should be absolutely
discouraged, and the erring members of the community must be reported to the
law enforcement agents;

v. Always promote the habits of switching off your electrical appliances when not
in use. Whenever you are leaving home/office, make sure that you switch-off
all the gadgets and electrical appliances, or even turn-off the power source
(switch box);

vi. Due to the overflow of water, there is tendency that some sewer systems will
be badly damaged, capable of causing widespread diseases like cholera. It is
therefore important to always cover your food and avoid taking untreated
water;

vii. You should always apply disinfectant solutions like izal to clean your
surroundings. The use of lime and bleaching powder can also be useful in the
cleaning;

viii. Ensure that you and other people in your household wear cover shoes to avoid
infection like rashes;

ix. Avoid going about in flood water and be careful when it is mandatory for you
to go out. Make sure that you have a long stick with you to protect yourself
against snake bites. The reason is that if a place with large population of snakes
is flooded, the incidence of snake bites becomes very imminent;

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x. Avoid using any electrical appliance enmeshed in water until technicians have
instructed that they can be powered and used;

xi. Always stay glued to your radio to get updates on the incident of flood;

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you analyse flood as a climatic hazard?

3.3 Analysing Drought as Climatic Hazard/Threat

Drought is actually a normal climatic situation. It is experienced almost in all parts of

the world. But, it can constitute a security threat if its occurrence is so significant. This
is because it is supposed to be a temporary condition, which may last for sometime but
its presence should not be too long. Drought appears to be another hazard that can lead
to disaster if its effects are not mitigated by the people or the concerned communities.
It is no gainsaying that it can exacerbate condition of hunger in any community due to
food shortage resulting from poor agricultural yields. Meanwhile, definition of drought
goes beyond agricultural condition, and it is imperative at this juncture, to look at some
of the definitions of the term, drought.

A drought is an extended period of months or years when a region notes a deficiency

in its water supply. Generally, this occurs when a region receives consistently below
average . It can have a substantial impact on the and of the affected region
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought).

Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. Unlike many disasters which are sudden,
droughts result when there is less than normal precipitation over an extended period of
time, usually a season or more. The decreased water input results in a water shortage
for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought can also occur when the
temperature is higher than normal for a sustained period of time; this causes more
water to be drawn off by evaporation. Other possible causes are delays in the start of
the rainy season or timing of rains in relation to principal crop growth stages (rain at
the “wrong” time). High winds and low relative humidity can make matters much
worse (IFAS, 1998: 1).

Bearing in mind the foregoing definitions, you may agree with me that the problem of
drought becomes evident especially when man's demand for water grows at geometric
progression and reduction in the volume of water supply is also experienced at
geometric progression. At this point, the incidence of drought can lead to disaster
except adequate interventionist measures and mitigation initiatives are brought into
bear.

There is no doubt that the incidence of drought exists everywhere, particularly where
there is high use of water. And this hazard has the potentials of undermining economic
and environmental security of any society. The problem is very evident in Africa due

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to lack of adequate preparedness and mitigation strategies (irrigation, crop rotation and
environmental protection) to reduce the impact of the risk that drought poses to
environmental sustainability and economic wellbeing of the people. However, there
are various types of drought, which include the following:

i. Meteorological drought: This is a form of drought created by a long absence of

normal precipitation. Here, the period is greeted with precipitation that is below
the average. This type of drought is the first drought that can be experienced
before any other forms of drought emerge. Therefore, it provides a kind of
warning-signal to the affected communities of the impeding risk;

ii. Agricultural droughts: These are droughts that propel poor yields in farm
cultivations. They have adverse effect on crop production and can lead to food
insecurity in the affected community; and

iii. Hydrological droughts: These droughts usually mount environmental security

threat to people by reducing the level of water in water reserves like aquifers,
lakes and reservoirs, such that the water level will be short of the statistical
average. In a situation like this, the possibility of having (acute) water shortage
is very high.

3.1.1 Effects of Droughts

i. Poor agricultural yields and crop production which can lead to food insecurity.
Food insecurity is usually accompanied by starvation and hunger, which can
also generate political tension, violence, and increase in crime rate among other
security risks;

ii. Forced migration: Droughts can also propel a situation of migration among the
people of any affected community to another place in search of arable land for
cultivation or greener pasture. In a situation whereby the host community
cannot provide the visitors the needed opportunities to actualise their hopes,
may be due to prevailing socio-economic and political circumstances in the host
community, there is tendency that the immigrants will look for alternative
means to survive, some of which can constitute a greater security threat to the
hosts. A good example is the migration of several Tuareg from Niger Republic
to many states in northern Nigeria especially Kano due to the endemic droughts
being experienced in their home country.

The rapid migration of these foreigners from neighbouring countries has been
said to be a major cause of increasing incidence of religious violence in the
north especially Kano, Borno and Bauchi states. It was not surprising, in the
Akaluka religious riot in Kano, out of several rioters arrested by security
operatives in Nigeria, only one was Nigerian while others were foreigners
notably from neighbouring Niger Republic (see Albert, 1999: 292). This

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situation shows the amount of threat that droughts can pose to the security of
any nation;

iii. Famine: Droughts can also generate famine due to lack of water for irrigation;

iv. Disease outbreak: Droughts can also provoke a situation of Malnutrition,

dehydration and related diseases due to shortage in water supply for agriculture
and consumption; and

v. War and Violence: Resulting from the problem of environmental resource

scarcity caused by droughts, there may be growing struggle among the people to
compete for the available lean resources, which cannot go round. Therefore,
people will live under harsh conditions adorned with the attitude of survival of
the fittest, which creates violence and hostilities especially where there is a
sharp ethnic division with patron-client ideology. Other effects may include
increase in the incidence of snakebites as experienced in drought-ridden areas in
northern Nigeria and elsewhere (see ://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific
/6282075.stm), desertification and erosion, social unrest and criminality, and
wildfires, to mention a few.

3.1.2 Predictability

Drought can also be predicted. Though, it is normal to experience some dryness in

weather as associated with all world weather systems. But, significant dryness in
weather can constitute a drought. However, we can predict the occurrence of drought
through the analysis of rainfall and hydrology information about any community to
determine if it is susceptible to experience future droughts.

3.1.3. Vulnerability

Any community can be vulnerable to drought resulting from the following factors:

i. Their location in an arid area;

ii. The attitude of cultivating on marginal lands;

iii. Absence of agricultural inputs that can help to improve farm yields;

iv. Absence of seed reserves;

v. Lack of risk education and hazard mapping;

vi. Lack of early warning systems; and

vii. Absolute dependence on other weather systems for water resources.

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Threats 3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Drought and famine early warning systems;

ii. Land use control;

iii. Development of inter-institutional response plan (see UNDP & UNDRO, 1992:
40); and

iv. Provision of risk education and promotion of community awareness of hazard

mitigation and drought management.

3.1.5. Impact assessment techniques

Rainfall and hydrological data monitoring, socio-economic surveys, satellite imagery,

among other tools can be used to assess the impact of drought on any community.

3.1.6. Individual safety measures

i. As a result of the difficulty in knowing when droughts begin and when it will
last, a number of drought indicators will be required before we can finally make
a decision on the ways through which we can effectively implement our water-
management plan;

ii. After knowing the relevant indicators, water users can then develop necessary
contingency plans through which decisions can be made on future economic
investments (Hrezo et al. 1986: 47). Some of these indicators may include the
Palmer Index (a drought severity index), historical data on the present water
consumption and expected amount of water that may be needed in the nearest
future especially where there is significant population growth like sub-Saharan
Africa. We can also use as indicators stream flow as well as the level of
subsidence or salt-water intrusion;

iii. In various homes and offices, the culture of water management should be
promoted. The use of toilets to urinate should be avoided. We should encourage
the use of urinals instead of toilets, which will need to be flushed from time to
time, leading to waste of water;

iv. For optimal agricultural production, it is advisable to adopt crop rotation, which
can assist in minimising the problem of erosion and enable farmers to cultivate
other crops that demand less water during drier seasons that may be occasioned
by the drought;

v. Adopting cloud seeding can also be beneficial in the mitigation of drought.

Cloud seeding can be described as a method of weather modification. It is
usually an “attempt to change the amount or type of precipitation that falls from
clouds, by dispersing substances into the air that serve as cloud

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condensation or ice nuclei, which alter the microphysical processes within the
cloud” (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought) (see figure 1.1). The rationale behind
this method is to enhance precipitation (rain or snow). Also, the hail and fog
suppression often practiced in airports can also be useful.

Figure 1.1. Cloud Seeding

Cloud seeding can be done by ground generators or by plane

Source: ://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4c/Cloud_ Seeding
.svg/500px-Cloud_Seeding.svg.png.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How do you describe drought as a climatic security threat?

4.0 CONCLUSION

There is no doubt that if no adequate efforts are made to mitigate or reduce the impact
of climatic hazards, there is the possibility that they will result in disasters. It is,
therefore, important for stakeholders to adopt strategies through which they can
improve their capacity to respond to these hazardous situations timely and effectively.
A fact that comes out of this intellectual standpoint is that disaster does not usually
occur where vulnerability is low or absent.

Take for instance, in Nigeria, the problem of flood would have been minimised if
government has put in place measures and adopt policy-actions that mitigate risk
emanating from environmental degradation and deforestation, which form part of the
causes of flood. The culture of deforestation has continued to be evident especially from
the felling of trees as firewood for cooking. The problem is that households especially
those in rural settings cannot afford the exorbitant cost of kerosene and cooking gas to
do their cooking. Therefore, many have resulted in the use of firewood, a situation that
can be a driving force for the incidence of flooding. The problem of

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climate change is becoming phenomenal considering its adverse impact on

environmental sustainability of every nation especially the developing countries.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we focussed on climatic types of security threat. We began our main task
by looking at the meaning of hurricane as one of the climatic hazards or threat and
analysed how it constitutes a security threat to any community. Thereafter, we drew
our analytical searchlight on the second type of climatic security threat or hazard,
flood, and we explained how it poses a huge risk to communities or people. The last
type of climatic hazard we discussed in this unit was drought. In our analysis of
drought as a climatic hazard, we explained its meaning and other issues including its
effects and predictability, among others. I have no doubt that you have found this unit
thought-provoking.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

i. Define three types of climatic hazard or threat; and

ii. Enumerate any four factors that can make any community vulnerable to flood.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Albert, I.O. (1999). Ethnic and Religious Conflicts in Kano. Otite, O & Albert, I.O
(eds.). Community Conflicts in Nigeria: Management, Resolution and Transformation.
Ibadan: Spectrum Books Ltd & Academic Peace Associates Work, Abuja, Nigeria.
274-309.

Gordon, J. (2000). Risk assessment and management in local government emergency

Planning, Part 1: Basic concepts. Canadian Journal of Emergency Management 2(2):
11-12.

Hrezo, M.S., Bridgeman, P.G., & Walker, W.R. (1986). Managing Droughts through
Triggering Mechanisms. American Water Works Association Journal. 46-51.

Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS) (1998). Extreme Heat and Drought.
In the Disaster Handbook. Florida: University of Florida (Chapter 16). Also available
on ://disaster.ifas.ufl.edu/PDFS/CHAP16/D16-05.PDF. Retrieved on 1 September,
2009.

US National Institute of Standards and Technology cited in Kuban, R. & MacKenzie-

Carey, H. (2001). Community-Wide Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment. Office of
Critical Infrastructure Protection and Emergency Preparedness, Canada.

Waever, Ole (1995). Securitization and Desecuritization. In: Lipschutz, R.D (ed.). On
Security. New York: Columbia University Press. 46-86.

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats
://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://library.thinkquest.org/03oct/00795/hurricanetypes.html. Retrieved on 30 August,

2009.

://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6282075.stm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

:/ /proxy.11a.nu/2006 /02/11/definition-of-risk-vulnerability-and-threat). Retrieved on

30 August, 2009.

://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4c/Cloud_Seeding.svg/500px-
Cloud_Seeding.svg.png. Retrieved on 2 October, 2009.

://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/contents.html. Retrieved on 30 August,

2009.

://www.comet.ucar.edu/nsflab/web/hurricane/311.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

.geocities.com/seiswash/terms_and_definitions.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Threat. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://www.semo.state.ny.us/info/publicsafety/hurricaneprepare.cfm. Retrieved on 30
August, 2009.

://www.vigyanprasar.gov.in/comcom/feature64.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://www.why-is-the-sky-blue.tv/what-is-hurricane.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=flood. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

UNIT 4

ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY THREATS I

CONTENTS

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Desertification as an Environmental Security Threat
3.2 Deforestation as an Environmental Security Threat
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

In the last three units, our focus had been centred on geological and climatic types of
security threat. Those two sets of security threat types have been largely natural but we
cannot rule out the possibility of man-made activities and actions as contributing to
their occurrence. Unlike, geological and climatic threats or hazards, environmental
threats have manmade cause even more than nature. The fact is that unfriendly
handling of environmental resources by man has been the major factor responsible for
the occurrence of various types of environmental security threats.

However, in this unit, we shall focus on environmental threats but due to limited space
and time that we have in this unit, we shall study two of the four types of
environmental threat that we have considered in this course for analytical inquiry. The
two environmental threats that we shall beam our searchlight on in this unit are
desertification and deforestation. Before we go into the nitty-gritty of this study, let us
quickly browse through the various tasks that we shall be undertaking in this unit. The
tasks are stated in the next segment of this unit (Objectives).

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Identify desertification and deforestation as forms of environmental threats;

• Define desertification and analyse how it constitutes a security threat; and

• Describe and examine deforestation as an environmental threat.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Desertification as an Environmental Security Threat

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Desertification is one of the major environmental threats. The contradictions it has

mounted have posed very adverse effects on man and his/her environment. It is usually
occasioned or caused by the absence or drastic reduction in the volume of rainfall such
that rainfall dwindles below normal recorded levels for long period of time.
Desertification is a major contributor of drought, capable of causing poor yield to
agricultural production especially farming. It is worrisome that “seventy percent of the
world's drylands (excluding hyper-arid deserts), or some 3,600 million hectares, are
degraded” (://www.gdrc.org/uem/Trialogue/whatis-desert.html. If the situation is not
addressed, there is the possibility that more people will be in hunger and starvation.
However, what is desertification? Desertification can be described as:

...the process by which productive or habitable land becomes gradually more arid and
less capable of sustaining vegetation, eventually turning into desert. It is often a cause
of long-term disasters ( ://www.ifrc.org/what/disasters/about/types/climatological
/drought.asp).

..the progressive destruction or degradation of existing vegetative cover to form desert.

This can occur due to overgrazing, deforestation, drought, and the burning of
extensive areas. Once formed, deserts can only support a sparse range of vegetation...
(.climatechange.ca.gov/glossary/letter_d.html).

...the degradation of drylands. It involves the loss of biological or economic

productivity and complexity in croplands, pastures, and woodlands. It is due mainly to
climate variability and unsustainable human activities. The most commonly cited forms
of unsustainable land use are overcultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, and poor
irrigation practices (://www.gdrc.org/uem/Trialogue/whatis-desert.html).

...the degradation of land in arid and dry sub-humid areas, resulting primarily from
man-made activities and influenced by climatic variations. It is principally caused by
overgrazing, overdrafting of groundwater and diversion of water from rivers for
human consumption and industrial use, all of these processes fundamentally driven by
overpopulation (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertification).

...the gradual transformation of habitable land into desert; is usually caused by

climate change or by destructive use of the land (Error! Hyperlink reference not
valid.).

3.1.1 Effects of Desertification

i. Reducing the Capacity to produce Food: The incidence of desertification poses

enormous challenges to any affected communities especially as it largely
undermines the capacity of such communities to feed themselves, as they will to
a large extent rely on other communities to meet the feeding needs of their
population. Undoubtedly, this environmental security threat has become a major
issue among the world population in recent time owing to the continued
significant variability in the global climate. This is a result of the relationship

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between dryland degradation and climate change, provoking desertification on

one hand and the link between desertification and drastic fall in the ability of
any affected community to produce food culminating in starvation and
nutritional inadequacy on the other hand.

The problem of desertification has been affecting quite a number of African

countries including Niger and Chad. The ravaging hunger and starvation
produced by the incidence of desertification in Africa has continued to
undermine its security, as the continent has been continually confronted with
civil strife, ethno-religious violence, violent crimes especially armed robbery
among other threats. More unfortunately, absence of good governance and
creative leadership has further reinforced the agonies mounted by
desertification in several parts of the continent. There is growing involvement
of foreigners especially from neighbouring countries like Chad and Niger in
armed robbery and many other violent crimes in northern Nigeria, which has
resulted in huge losses in human and material terms;

ii. Famine: Desertification often instigates problem of famine in the affected

communities. This situation creates poverty among the mass public. There will
be poor yields in food production such that food distribution will be hampered,
and it is only those that can afford the exorbitant prices of the available food
commodities that can have access to them (food).

Consequently, majority of the people will have to make hunger and starvation
their second nature because of high cost of purchasing food, and many of
whom may already be economically disarticulated resulting from some socio-
economic factors (like unemployment, poor wages, seclusivism etc), as they
will always be on the brink of explosion.

As you may agree with me, a hungry man will always exhibit attitudes of
aggression. In a situation like this, one should not be surprised that the affected
communities will have to cope with growing rate of violent crimes, social vices
including prostitution, civil unrest, war or insurgency. In communities where
acute food shortage exists, the security practitioners or law enforcement agents
face a great challenge in maintaining law and order because the attendant crime
rate may overwhelm their capacity to guarantee security of lives and property
within their respective jurisdictions;

iii. Forced migration: Desertification can threaten the lives of people due to
extremely harsh conditions like the hunger it foists on them. Many of the
affected people forcefully migrate to other places in search of greener pasture or
where there is absence of food shortage (or mass hunger and starvation). For
instance, there has been an exodus of Taureg from desertification-ridden Niger
Republic, migrating to many Nigerian cities like Kano in search of better socio-
economic wellbeing while many of them who are farmers have been forced to
migrate seeking for fertile land where they can do their farming or cultivation.

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But, the continued problem of desert encroachment being experienced in many

parts of northern Nigeria has heightened the frustration of many of these
migrant Taureg farmers. The hopes of a great number of them were dashed as
they have found it difficult to secure land for cultivation, and for the lucky ones
among them who have gained access to land for cultivation, drastic reduction
in the volume of rainfall has greatly undermined the farm yields. The
excruciating plague of unemployment in Nigeria has also deepened the
frustration of the migrant Tuareg as many of them have resolved to engage in
criminal activities like armed robbery and religious violence;

iv. Economic underdevelopment: Inability of any nation to feed its people

sufficiently resulting from desertification or any other factors can lead to its
(over)reliance on other countries for food, which will have a negative impact on
its economy. The reason is that such affected nation will most likely resort to
importing food and may be spending a large percent of its earnings on the
importation of food, which it may even subsidise in order to make food
affordable to the people. According to a source, the amount of financial
resources depleted by desertification is mammoth and thus globally:

...it is estimated that the annual income foregone in the areas immediately
affected by desertification amounts to approximately US$ 42 billion each year.
The indirect economic and social costs suffered outside the affected areas,
including the influx of "environmental refugees" and losses to national food
production, may be much greater ( ://www.gdrc.org/uem/ Trialogue/whatis-
desert.html; and
.
v. Environmental scarcity: Dryland degradation can attract environmental scarcity
whereby the affected community experiences drastic reduction in harvest.
Farming activities will record very little or no yields as a result of
desertification leading to environmental scarcity. The environmental scarcity is
also capable of creating tension and engendering violent crime as may be
reinforced by poor food distribution and injustice in the sharing of state
resources like land allocation.

3.1.2 Predictability

Desertification as an environmental security threat can be predicted. In carrying out

surveillance of drylands to determine the amount of desertification that occurs in any
particular community, we can use remote sensing and/or aerial surveys.

3.1.3. Vulnerability

There are several factors that are responsible for vulnerability of any community to the
incidence of desertification, and these include:

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i. Experience of low rainfall and high temperatures;

ii. Uncontrolled and heavy land use;

iii.Absence of effective irrigation management;

iv. Application of inappropriate agricultural technologies and mundane cultural

farming techniques; and

v. Mass poverty and overpopulation;

3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Establishment of policies and laws that can promote sustainable agricultural

development, which can reduce the problem of desertification;

ii. Creating awareness and education to the people on the ways that they can
mitigate the problem of desertification;

iii.Promotion of hazard mapping and risk education among the people to enable
them identify those actions or activities that propel desertification and
appreciate the level of threat posed by desertification to them individually
and collectively. This will definitely make them to be more prepared
towards reducing the losses that such hazardous situation can bring on them
and their community at large;

iv. Developing strategies to improve soil quality especially through effective land
control; and

v. Stepping-up of desertification monitoring and conducting on regular basis the

available monitoring systems and mitigation approaches are also essential
to reducing vulnerability.

3.1.5. Impact assessment techniques

Aerial and remote sensing surveys are very germane in measuring the rate and scope of
desertification. Again, we can also use socio-economic surveys to determine the needs
of people in agricultural planning and sustainable agricultural development (see UNDP
& UNDRO, 1992: 43).

3.1.6. Individual safety measures

i. Ensure you absolutely discourage any water wastages;

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ii. Cutting down of trees should be drastically reduced;

iii. There should be effective irrigation measures to mitigate the effect of

desertification;

iv. There should be conservation of soil, and we should avoid using any land too
much for cultivation; and

v. It is helpful to get awareness and education on appropriate agricultural

technologies and activities that reduce the effect of desertification.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe desertification as a form of environmental threat?

3.2 Analysing Deforestation as an Environmental Threat

Deforestation is another type of environmental threat. It usually involves felling or

burning of trees by human beings for different purposes that may include using trees
as firewood for cooking, converting the forest into agricultural site or residential
location. The reckless felling of trees poses a great security risk to any community. It
has a very serious impact on the habitat, biodiversity and even aridity. Generally,
deforestation adversely affects the biosequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide,
posing a huge threat to man and his/her environment. At this point, let us browse
through some of the available definitions of deforestation. Thus, deforestation can be
described as:

...those practices or processes that result in the change of forested lands to non-
forest uses. This is often cited as one of the major causes of the enhanced greenhouse
effect for two reasons: 1) the burning or decomposition of the wood releases carbon
dioxide; and 2) trees that once removed (.climatechange.ca.gov/glossary
/letter_d.html)

...destruction of forests to make land for agriculture. Cutting down trees, which
provide oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide, is seen as a cause of increased greenhouse
effect. Deforestation also entails the destruction of animal habitats (. learn-english-
today.com/environment/env-vocabulary.html).

...the clearance of naturally occurring forests by the processes of logging and/or

burning of trees in a forested area. There are several reasons deforestation occurs:
trees or derived charcoal can be sold as a commodity and used by humans, while
cleared land is used as pasture, plantations of commodities and human settlement
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation).

Evidently, deforestation often attracts soil erosion, causing ecological quandary in the
midst of unfavourable socio-economic conditions. Globally, the incidence of

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deforestation has been on the increase as it has been estimated that almost half of the
world's mature tropical forests has been defiled through reckless removal of trees (see
Nielsen, 2006). In Nigeria, the problem of deforestation has been endemic as several
parts of the nation continue to battle with harsh ecological conditions that
deforestation has mounted. For instance in Kano, the growing depletion of forests has
been worrisome. According to Eckholm et al. (1984):

over the last 25 years, commercial wood demands have led to severe deforestation
and the collapse of a sustainable agricultural system ... now farmland within a 40 km
radius of the city (of Kano) has been largely stripped of trees (Eckholm et al., 1984:
28) .

It is more worrisome that despite the adverse effects of deforestation, people have
continued to remove trees with little or no concern about replacing them with new
ones. The culture of using trees as firewood for cooking has contributed largely to the
depletion of forests in Nigeria especially as Kerosene is almost out of reach of the
downtrodden. Considering the consequences of deforestation, one will not but agree
that deforestation pose a huge security threat to man. We shall explain these adverse
effects in the next part of the segment.

3.2.1 Effects of Deforestation

i. Adverse Atmospheric Conditions: It is popularly accepted that deforestation

contributes significantly to climate change as it has remained one of the leading
contributing factors of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Tropical deforestation
is believed to account for almost 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions
(://www.fondationchirac.eu/en/deforestation). Among anthropogenic activities
that aid the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, deforestation
accounts for almost one-third (://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessm ent-
report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter7.pdf).

Usually, trees and other plants through the process of photosynthesis assist the
atmosphere to remove carbon dioxide that destroys the atmosphere by returning
oxygen into the atmosphere during normal respiration (Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.). But by burning down the forest or trees, we are trapping
the atmosphere with Carbon dioxide, which damages the atmosphere. Again,
by removing trees, we reduce the amount of oxygen produced by the trees to
the atmosphere, and this oxygen helps to maintain its good quality and
biosphere stability;

ii. Poor hydrological conditions: Water is very vital to the wellbeing of any people
or community, and so forestation is important to water cycle. There is no doubt
that deforestation also contributes in no small measure to distortion in the water
cycle. Trees through their roots help in extracting groundwater, which it releases
to the atmosphere for the atmosphere to maintain its biosphere stability. Thus,
reckless removal of trees rapidly reduces the amount of

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groundwater emitted into the atmosphere by trees, and the consequence of this
action (deforestation) is invocation of much drier climate;

iii. Loss of Soil Cohesion or erosion: Another adverse effect that deforestation
poses to any community or people is loss of soil. The reason is that
deforestation contributes in no small measure to soil erosion as it increases the
quantity of runoff and cuts down the protection that tree litter gives to soil. It is
worrisome the rate at which soil loss is engineered resulting from deforestation,
and it is believed that “approximately 2 metric tons per square kilometre” of soil
are lost due to rapid decimation of forest or deforestation
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki /Deforestation). Trees through their roots help to
encourage soil cohesion especially when the soil appears to be shallow, the trees
“act to keep the soil in place by also binding with underlying bedrock” (ibid).
Deforestation can therefore lead to the loss of soil cohesion and where we have
shallow soil, the risk of landslides becomes more imminent;

iv. Ecological Hazard: Deforestation is also known to be one of the leading

contributors of decline in biodiversity (://www.actionbioscience.org/
environment/nilsson.html). Forestation helps to sustain biodiversity, as it
provides habitat for wildlife. Since tropical rainforests accommodate almost
80% of the world's biodiversity, decimation of trees can propel a rapid
reduction of biodiversity with attendant consequence of environmental
degradation.

Again, apart from the animals that are harboured in the forests some of which
may go into extinction resulting from deforestation (loss of habitat) and
hunting, the medicinal conservation being engineered by forests will become
diminished such that some plant species may be wiped-out. This situation can
also have a very negative effect on the wellbeing of man and his/her
environment; and

v. Economic Underdevelopment: Massive removal of trees or depletion of forests

can drastically reduce the living standards of communities as it has been argued
that if care is not taken deforestation will propel a reduction of global GDP by
almost 7% by year 2050 (see ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defore station).

3.2.2 Predictability

Hazard mapping and global attention has increased with a view to mitigate the problem
of deforestation. Thus, deforestation is predictable, and due to growing awareness
concerning the threat posed to global population by deforestation, more information is
emerging about those activities that promote the problem of deforestation. The
information has made it easy to identify the rate and scope of deforestation that takes
place in any community.

3.2.3. Vulnerability

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i. Population explosion: A rapid growth in the population of any community is

one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of such community to the
problem of deforestation. One of the reasons is that there will be an increase
in the demand for wood for different purposes including furniture;

ii. Rapid urbanisation: A situation whereby a community is rapidly urbanising,

there is tendency that there will be growing depletion of forests especially by
converting many of the forests to residential quarters as being experienced in
many of the cities in Nigeria including Kano and Lagos;

iii. Mass poverty: Where there is endemic poverty among the larger segment of the
society, there is tendency that such a society will become more vulnerable to
deforestation. Many of the people who cannot afford kerosene and cooking
gas for their cooking often resort to using trees as firewood;

iv. Unregulated removal of trees: Any community can become much more
vulnerable if people recklessly cut-down trees without any attempt to replace
the lost trees through re-plantation of trees or reforestation; and

v. Economic dependence on wood: In communities where many rely solely on

wood for income, deforestation is widely carried-out with very severe
consequences on the economy of those communities. For instance,
exportation of timber by many West African countries has really hampered
the capacity of many of these countries to meet their local demand for
timber with attendant adverse impact on their furniture industry. Thus, many
of them have ended up importing furniture abroad to address shortage in
furniture production on the home-front. This situation will therefore have
more negative impact on their national economies.

3.2.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Conservation of forests can be encouraged to reduce the incidence of

deforestation;

ii. Necessary legislations or laws should be formulated and adequately

implemented to discourage those actions and activities that promote rapid
removal of trees or deforestation;

iii. Provision of social amenities in rural areas can also reduce the influx of
migrants to urban centres. By doing so, there will be drastic reduction in
accommodation requests in the cities which can propel conversion of forests
into residential sites for the yearning urban residents;

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iv. Hazard mapping is also vital in mitigating the problem of deforestation.

Through hazard mapping, we may be able to identify the rate at which in all
locations or areas trees are being decimated for prompt mitigation response;

v. As you may know, population explosion is one of the causes of deforestation, it

is therefore important to educate the masses on the relevance of birth control
in preserving their environment and reducing the problem of deforestation;
and

vi. The government should also make kerosene and cooking gas available and very
affordable to people such that the use of firewood for cooking will become
less attractive to them especially the downtrodden.

3.2.5. Impact assessment techniques

We can map the rate and scope of deforestation by using aerial or remote sensing or
ground surveys.

3.2.6. Individual safety measures

i. We should cultivate the habit of planting trees on regular basis;

ii. The cutting down of trees for firewood to do our cooking should be avoided.
Instead, we should use either kerosene or cooking gas. Though, many
people may argue that they cannot afford kerosene or cooking gas but the
one fact that we cannot do away with is that the consequences of
deforestation are very severe, and the poor usually appear to be the most
vulnerable.

For instance, where flooding is experienced resulting from deforestation,

and in worst-case scenario whereby massive structural and physical damage
is recorded like the collapse of buildings, it is the poor that suffer more
because they may not afford any alternative accommodation if their houses
are badly damaged. It is against this background that we should also educate
the downtrodden to take the issue of reforestation more seriously and avoid
actions that promote the problem of deforestation;

iii. There should be use of bricks instead of wood in the construction of buildings
or shelter;

iv. We should educate our household on the need to avoid reckless removal of
trees; and

v. We should avoid engaging in bush-burning, which apart from contributing to

deforestation can also entrap the atmosphere with carbon dioxide (CO2) that

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propels climate change, capable of causing some other hazards like drought
and desertification.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Discuss deforestation as an environmental threat.

4.0 CONCLUSION

Considering some facts that have emerged about our analysis of desertification and
deforestation, you may agree with me that these environmental threats are highly
preventable, provided that every people and community can pay greater attention to
conservation of environmental resources as well as providing effective mitigation
strategies to rapidly reduce any losses that occurrence of these threats can pose them. It
is worthy to note that these environmental threats have the capability of leading to
another set of threat types. For instance, deforestation can generate drought (a climatic
threat), capable of shortening or reducing the capacity of any community to feed itself
especially as a result of drastic reduction in the volume of rainfall or levels of water. It
is therefore important for all stakeholders to take environmental issues more seriously
especially through development of viable framework through which these
environmental threats can be mitigated.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we have been able to discuss two environmental threats (desertification
and deforestation). We began by explaining the meaning of desertification and
subjected it to analytical scrutiny in exploring how it constitutes a threat to any people
or community if it occurs. We also focused on other relevant issues that bother on its
predictability, what factors are responsible for vulnerability of community etc.
Thereafter, we analysed deforestation as another form of environmental threat by
defining it, explaining its predictability among other issues relevant to the subject.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

i. Define deforestation and desertification; and

ii. Briefly discuss any three mitigation measures to each of these two
environmental threats.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Eckholm, E., Foley, G., Barnard, G. and Timberlake, L. 1984. Firewood: the energy
crisis that won't go away. Earthscan (IIED).

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Nielsen, R. (2006). The Little Green Handbook: Seven Trends Shaping the Future of
Our Planet. New York: Picador.

UNDP & UNDRO (1992). An Overview of Disaster Management (2nd

Edition). Disaster Management Training Programme.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertification. Retrieved on the 15 October, 2009.

://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/nilsson.html. Retrieved on 30 October,

2009.

://www.fondationchirac.eu/en/deforestation. Retrieved on the 15 October, 2009.

://www.gdrc.org/uem/Trialogue/whatis-desert.html. Retrieved on the 6

September, 2009.

://www.ifrc.org/what/disasters/about/types/climatological/drought.asp. Retrieved on 9
October, 2009.

://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter7.pdf. Retrieved on
20 October, 2009.

.climatechange.ca.gov/glossary/letter_d.html. Retrieved on 10th October, 2009.

. learn-english-today.com/environment/env-vocabulary.html. Retrieved on 10
October, 2009.

.wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn. Retrieved on 10 October, 2009.

UNIT 5

ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY THREATS II

CONTENTS

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1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Analysing Environmental Pollution as a Security Threat
3.2 Analysing Pest Infestation as a Security Threat
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

In the last unit, our focus was centred on two forms of environmental security threat
including desertification and deforestation but in this unit we shall conclude our tasks
on the types of environmental threat by examining the last two types of environmental
threat. These include environmental pollution and pest infestation. These
environmental threats like the other two already discussed in the last unit, can also
pose enormous challenge and a huge threat to people or communities. Environmental
pollution apart from mounting a huge threat on its own to any people can also generate
some other hazards like drought, climate change and flood that may also pose greater
security risk to the survival of communities or people.

On the other hand, apart from the threat posed by pest infestation to crops and human
beings, it can also undermine the economic survival of people, and is capable of
mounting on any affected people environmental scarcity that can exacerbate existing
socio-economic tension. At this point, let us take a glimpse at the various tasks that we
will accomplish in this unit. These tasks are enumerated in the following segment of
this unit.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Explain the meaning of environmental pollution, and analyse how it can

constitute a threat to people or communities; and

• Describe pest infestation as an environmental form of security threat.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Analysing Environmental Pollution as a Security Threat

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Environmental pollution is usually experienced when those contaminations or

anthropogenic blotting of the environment cannot be sufficiently processed and
neutralised by the environment "without any structural or functional damage to its
system" (://www.tropical-rainforest-animals.com/Environmental-Pollution.html). It is
no surprise that environmental pollution is often regarded by many people as silent
killer. People always engage in activities that pollute the environment such as a
emission of gases into the atmosphere, trapping the atmosphere with carbon dioxide
that usually attracts significant variability in climate.

Sometimes, people pollute their environment ignorantly especially through some

cultural practices. For instance, in some communities burning down of forests for
cultivation has become a normal practice without considering the amount of damage it
can pose their environment. Apart from increasing the problem of climate change, it
can also lead to some other hazards like flood and drought among others. However, at
this point, it is important to explore some of the common definitions of the term,
environmental pollution. As you may be aware, the list of definitions of
environmental pollution is long, but we can define it:

...the introduction of contaminants into an environment that causes instability,

disorder, harm or discomfort to the ecosystem (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Environmental_pollution).

...contamination of air, water and land from man-made waste. Pollution leads to
depletion of the ozone layer, global warming and climate change. Air pollution is the
release of chemicals and particles into the atmosphere. Water pollution includes
surface runoff, leakage into groundwater, liquid spills, wastewater discharge and
littering. If toxins are spilled on the ground or if an underground storage tank leaks,
soil can become contaminated. Well known contaminants include herbicides and
pesticides. Toxic waste is waste material, often in chemical form, which pollutes the
natural environment and contaminates groundwater (Error! Hyperlink reference not
valid.).

...the contamination of the physical and biological components of the

earth/atmosphere system to such an extent that normal environmental processes are
adversely affected (Kemp, 1998: 129).

...the addition of any substance or form of energy (e.g., heat, sound, radioactivity) to
the environment at a rate faster than the environment can accommodate it by
dispersion, breakdown, recycling, or storage in some harmless form
(://library.eb.co.uk/eb/article-9109632).

...any use of natural resources at a rate higher than nature's capacity to restore itself
can result in pollution of air, water, and land (Santos, 1990: 44).

Considering the above definitions, there are various forms of environmental pollution,
and they can be basically classified as air pollution, water pollution and soil

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contamination. There is no doubt that the consequences of environmental pollution

can be so severe not only man but also to the general ecosystem. Meanwhile, the
adverse effects of pollution are many but in this unit, we shall explain some of them.
This task shall be undertaken in the next part of this segment of the unit.

3.1.1 Effects of Environmental Pollution

i. Health risk: Environmental pollution can pose a great security risk to public
health. This is because it has the capacity to cause reduction in lung
functioning, increase in cases of asthma attacks, respiratory disorder especially
in the form of coughing and wheezing, growing rate of disruption of endocrine,
reproductive and immune systems. It can also contribute to a drastic increase in
some other health problems like cancer; cardiovascular disorder; irritation of
eyes, nose, mouth and throat; as well as premature death.

For instance, through pollution of water, people can get cholera, typhoid,
hookworm etc. It is therefore very important for one to treat his/her water
before drinking. Even, if one wants to use water for bath, it is germane to treat
it with the use of disinfectants. The truth is that many people often get infected
with rashes, ear ache, hepatitis, gastroenteritis, diarrhea etc when they bathe
themselves with some contaminated water (://www.tropical-rainforest-
animals.com/Environ mental-Pollution.html). In situations where there is
contamination of water through some chemicals like hydrocarbon and
pesticide, there is the possibility that a number of people will be inflicted with
cancer, liver and kidney damage etc;

ii. Destruction of crops and aquatic systems: Environmental pollution can cause
contamination of air and atmosphere, which can result to destruction of
agricultural crops and forests. It can also lead to the destruction of aquatic
systems. For instance, through the emission of greenhouse gases, we trap the
atmosphere with carbon dioxide (CO2), which can provoke a rapid variability
in climate (climate change). Climate change can on its own mount a situation
whereby there will be drastic reduction in the volume of rainfall, which can
also lead to increasing reduction in the level of water in the river or sea;

iii. Spread of pathogens and toxins: The pollution of water can reduce water
quality with attendant risk to the health of the people and sealife. There is no
doubt that the problem of growing environmental pollution in the Niger Delta
region of Nigeria has really affected sealife in this area. The effluents and
pollutants generated by oil exploration and some other industrial activities have
damaged the aquatic systems in this area such that fishing has become a non-
vibrant venture;

iv. Environmental scarcity: Pollution can lead to acute shortage of food, livestock
and water resources including fishes. For instance, the contamination of farm
lands can propel loss of farm yields or destruction of crops, which can

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undermine the capacity of any community in the production of food. Pollution

can also produce acid rain, which can kill trees and damage the leaves of plants
as well as drastically reducing the quality of soil, losing its potentials to produce
nutrients to plants; and

v. Global warming: Environmental pollution has an adverse effect on the

atmosphere. It can attract a rapid rise in the temperature in the affected
community. It can also contribute to sea rise and climate change (see UNDP &
UNDRO, 1992: 41).

3.1.2 Predictability

Environmental pollution is a subject of per capita consumption. Through development

of any country or community, we can predict the susceptibility of such country or
community to the incidence of environmental pollution.

3.1.3. Vulnerability

i. Rapidly growing rate of industrialisation is one of the factors that determine the
vulnerability of any community to the problem of environmental pollution.
High industrialisation is capable of subjecting the environment to all forms of
pollution. The effluence and the huge amount of gas emissions produced by
several industrial activities often damage ecosystem and undermine the public
health of people or community especially when there are no adequate laws to
regulate how these industries dispose and manage their wastes;

ii. Absence of pollution control regulations can make any community vulnerable to
pollution because people or industries engage in all sorts of actions that promote
environmental pollution with impunity. If there are laws guiding people on how
they dispose their wastes, the anthropogenic activities can be minimised if not
curbed totally;

iii. Lack of mitigation plans and risk education can also complicate the problem of
pollution in any community. The reason is that most people or industries will
not know the amount of risk that various pollutions can pose to the general
wellbeing of their environment if there is absence of risk education. Also, if
there are no adequate mitigation plans, people will not be able to identify those
action that they can undertake to reduce the effect of pollution on their lives and
environment; and

iv. Another factor that can make any community vulnerable to pollution is
widespread poverty or unequal distribution of state resources. Due to the
inability of many people in most developing countries to afford modern farm
mechanisation, many farmers still engage in old cultivation practices like bush
burning as they increase the amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted into the
atmosphere. In sub-Saharan Africa, there still exist several homes without

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toilets whereby people urinate and excrete their body wastes into the rivers,
from where people will still go and fetch water for domestic use with very
severe consequences to public health.

3.1.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

i. Establishment of laws to control all forms of pollution;

ii. Risk education and mitigation plans;

iii. Drastic reduction in the use of pesticide;

iv. Hazard mapping is also essential to mitigate the problem of environmental

pollution especially by identifying the level and scope of pollutions in each part
of the community;

v. There should be effective control of the use of aerosol and disposal of

refrigerators (see UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 41);

vi. Invocation of initiatives that promote reforestation and drastic reduction in the
incidence of deforestation; and

vii. The production and use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) should be discouraged

because of its potential in generating depletion of the ozone layers.

3.1.5. Impact assessment techniques

According to UNDP & UNDRO (1992: 41), the techniques through which we can
assess the impact of environmental pollution in any area or community may include:

i. Aerial, remote sensing and ground surveys;

ii. Application of air, water and soil testing to determine the level and scope of
pollution in the affected area;

iii. Comparative study of climatic data; and

iv. Socio-economic surveys can also be useful to determine the level of economic
vulnerability of the people, how much do poor socio-economic conditions
exacerbate the problem of environmental pollution, and how much impact does
environmental pollution have on the socio-economic condition of the
community at large.

3.1.6. Individual safety measures

i. Avoid dropping wastes into the canal;

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ii. Educate your household on the need to avoid engaging in activities that can
promote emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere especially bush
burning or burning of refuse;

iii. Report any individual or organisation engaging in destroying the sealife by

disposing effluents and pollutants into the sea or river or stream;

iv. Avoid defecating in public places and ensure that toilets are available in your
houses. It is also important to report any house without toilet(s) to sanitary
authorities for appropriate punishment; and

v. Reckless removal of trees from forests should be discouraged in strong terms

etc.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Analyse environmental pollution as a security threat.

3.2 Analysing Pest Infestation as a Security Threat

Pest infestation can pose a huge security risk to any community owing to the rate at
which it can potentially undermine the capacity of the community to produce food. A
source has argued that due to pest infestation:

It is estimated that 35% of world crop production is lost in spite of pesticide and other
control programs. The primary pests are insects, disease and weeds. Losses due to
birds and wild animals are low compared to these (://nidm.gov.in/Pest_
Infestation.asp).

Considering the foregoing, infestation is basically caused by such pests like insects
while some animals can also pose a great danger to a community. On farmlands, we
may also have human pests who usually keep a close watch on farmers with criminal
intent, to cart away the harvests and deprive the farmers the opportunity to enjoy the
fruits of their labour.

Generally, insects and animals as pests pose a huge threat to a community, as we

cannot also rule-out the potentials of ants and earwigs to cause people severe damage
with very adverse impact on their public health and material resources. Conceptually,
for the sake of clarity, we shall attempt the definition of the term by separating the two
words (pest and infestation) that it consists. First, we shall be considering the meaning
of pest. Thus, pest can be defined as:

...as any living organism or plant causing harm or damage to people, their animals,
crops or possessions. The important pests are those, which lead to loss of crop yield

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or quality, resulting in loss of profits to the farmers and reduced stocks for subsistence
or export (://nidm.gov.in/Pest_ Infestation.asp).

On the other hand, infestation can simply be defined as:

...the act of infesting or to overrun or haunt in large numbers, especially as to render

unpleasant or unsafe (Funk & Wagnalls Standard Dictionary, 1962).

However, if we merge the two definitions above, we cannot be wrong to define pest
infestation as (destructive) overrunning or haunting of people, animals, crops or
possessions by any living organisms especially insects with the capacity to pose a huge
risk to the affected and undermine their safety and security. Another definition of pest
infestation is that it is:

...the occurrence of one or more pest species in an area or location where their
numbers and impact are currently or potentially at intolerable levels (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.).

There is no doubt that pest infestation can undermine the food production capacity of a
community because it can drastically reduce farm yields by destroying the plants’
stems and root systems as well as infuse toxins on the farmlands (UNDP & UNDRO,
1992: 44). A number of ecological factors contribute to the incidence of pest
infestation, and one of them is temperature. Temperature has become the chief
contributor to pest infestation. One reason is that hot temperature assists the pests to
develop and replicate much rapidly. Other factors may include mono-culture of crops;
migration, introduction of new plants to new locations, among others. The negative
impact that pest infestation may have on a community can be so severe owing to the
various adverse effects it manifests when it occurs in any area. We shall explain these
effects in the next part of this segment.

3.2.1 Effects of Environmental Pollution

i. Propelling damage of crops: Pests may destroy plants or crops especially by

attacking their roots resulting in poor agricultural yields and loss of profits for
the farmers;

ii. Food insecurity: The poor yields on agricultural activities as mounted by pest
infestation can reduce the potential of any affected community in food
production. Nonetheless, pest infestation has been identified as one of the
leading contributors of famine capable of subjecting people to ravaging hunger
and starvation;
iii. Economic underdevelopment: Due to wide destruction of crops, the capacity of
any affected community to reserve crops for export will rapidly diminish,
meaning that a lot of foreign earnings will be lost in the process;

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iv. Poverty: Pest infestation generates poverty especially among agricultural

practitioners who lose the larger parts of their productions to pests. Through
pest infestation, many agricultural workers may record high profit loss, making
them economically vulnerable; and

v. Health Hazard: Pest infestation can also cause a health hazard to any people or
communities. For instance, there is increasing risk of lassa fever where there
exists Natal Multimammate Mouse (Mastomys natalensis). This disease is
usually caused by some rodents popularly called lassa rats by defecating and
urinating on grains and other food items as well as kitchen utensils. Any human
being that comes in contact with such feces or urine either by eating the infected
grains or food items or using any kitchen utensils without being treated may be
infected with lassa fever (an acute viral hemorrhagic fever). This disease is very
fatal as it can result in many deaths in the affected communities.

3.2.2 Predictability

Pest infestation is highly predictable as the use of pest forecasting can be so helpful not
only in detecting the level and scope of infestation but also in identifying the types of
pesticide that can be cost effective in mitigating the infestation. Proper monitoring of
crops and/or livestock can also assist us to detect and determine the types and amount
of pests that exist, which can cause damage to our crops and/or livestock.

3.2.3. Vulnerability

There are several factors that can make communities vulnerable to pest infestation,
and these include:

i. Existence of large number and variety of pests;

ii. Existence of high temperature can foster a rapid development of pests;

iii. Poor sanitary conditions can also assist the pests to replicate so fast because
they usually have access to food and other wastes not well disposed. They feed
on these wastes and become multiplied. For instance, rats will always visit
places where they can easily have access to food;

iv. Absence of adequate pest control which can make a community vulnerable;
and

v. Absence of advanced agricultural technologies.

3.2.4 Risk reduction and preparedness measures

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i. Application of appropriate and effective pest control measures can be helpful in

reducing the incidence of pest attacks or damage. It is also important to examine
the side effects of every pesticide in order to enhance public safety;

ii. Cleanliness is usually regarded as next to godliness. It is very germane to clean

our environment with the aim of controlling the pests;

iii. Pest identification is also essential in reducing the impact of pests on any area or
community. By identifying types of pest available in an area, we can determine
the level and scope of the infestation as well as forms of pesticide that can be
applied to rapidly reduce their damage;

iv. Risk education is also vital to create awareness among the people on those
factors that aid pest infestation and how they can be addressed. This may enable
them to act more creatively and effectively in reducing the losses that pest
infestation can inflict on them; and

v. Existence of integrated pest management is very important for pest infestation

mitigation through application of physical control, cultural control, chemical
control, biological control, crop plant resistance, among others (see UNDP &
UNDRO, 1992: 44).

3.2.5. Impact assessment techniques

There are various techniques through which we can assess the impact of pest
infestation on communities or people. These may include:

i. Infestation incidence and severity assessment; and

ii. Aerial and ground surveys of crops damage.

3.2.6. Individual safety measures

i. Application of pesticide for the control of pest must be done with caution to
avoid the atmosphere with poisonous substances. It is important to check if the
(pesticide) products are registered and have not expired;

ii. Ensure that your surrounding is always kept clean and tidy so that pests will not
find it as a good habitat;

iii. Avoid activities that promote environmental pollution with the aim of reducing
depletion of ozone layer and highly warm temperature that can engender rapid
development of some pests;
iv. Cover your food properly and ensure that you always wash your plates, spoons
and other kitchen utensils with detergent and water before use;

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v. Block all holes or passageway that rodents and any other pests can use to
navigate into your household, and carefully apply pesticide whenever their
presence is noticed; and

vi. Educate members of your family on the need to control pests.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you analyse pest infestation as a security threat?

4.0 CONCLUSION

In the last two units, our focus had been environmental forms of security threat. In this
unit, we have subjected environmental pollution and pest infestation as security threats
into analytical scrutiny. Environmental pollution are of different types, which include
air pollution, water pollution and soil contamination. Air pollution is often generated
from emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and one of its consequences is
invocation of significant variability in climate conditions (climate change). Climate
change also produces some contradictions that can engender the problem of
environmental scarcity. Air pollution can also potentially undermine the health safety
and security of people by inflicting them with variety of health problems including
neurobehavioural disorders, cardiovascular ailment among others.

Water pollution can also attract waterborne diseases like cholera and typhoid. Soil
contamination is also associated with environmental pollution, capable of making
plants drastically lose yields while existence of mercury in this soil can increase the
risk of kidney damage among the people that consume the food harvested from the
contaminated land. Considering the destructive effects that environmental pollution
may have on people, it is always pertinent to develop strategies through which it can
mitigated or reduce the loss that may accompany its occurrence in a community. Like
environmental pollution, pest infestation can also pose great danger to people. Apart
from irritation that is associated with pest infestation, it can also lead to a rise in the
spread of bacterial, viral and parasitic infections among the people, capable of creating
a public health crisis. It is germane to develop mitigation approaches to arrest the
problem of pest infestation if meaningful development and security are to be achieved
in any community.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we covered another set of environmental security threat (environmental

pollution and pest infestation), which we were not able to study in the last unit due to
limited time and space. We began our analysis of the environmental threats under
focus by defining the term, environmental pollution, and thereafter we analysed
various issues that bother on the risk its occurrence portends to people or the
community. The second subject of discourse was pest infestation. We defined it and
analysed it as an environmental security threat.

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6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

i. Define environmental pollution and pest infestation; and

ii. Explain three effects of each of the two environmental forms of security threat.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Funk & Wagnalls Standard Dictionary. (1962) International Edition.

Kemp, D. D. (1998). The Environment Dictionary. London: Routledge.

Santos, M. A. (1990). Managing Planet Earth: Perspectives on Population, Ecology,

and the Law. Westport, CT: Bergin & Garvey.

UNDP & UNDRO (1992). An Overview of Disaster Management (2nd Edition).

Disaster Management Training Programme.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_pollution. Retrieved on 20 October,

2009. ://library.eb.co.uk/eb/article-9109632. Retrieved on 3 April, 2008.

://nidm.gov.in/Pest_Infestation.asp. Retrieved on 9 October, 2009. Error!

Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 20 October, 2009.

://www.tropical-rainforest-animals.com/Environmental-Pollution.html.Retrieved on 4
November, 2009.

MODULE 3 TYPES OF SECURITY AND APPROACHES TO THREAT

MITIGATION

Unit 1: Basic Types of Security I

Unit 2: Basic Types of Security II
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Unit 3: Basic Types of Security III

Unit 4: Civil Security Approaches to Threat Mitigation I
Unit 5: Civil Security Approaches to Threat Mitigation II

UNIT 1

BASIC TYPES OF SECURITY I

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Computer Security
3.1.1 Key Concepts in Computer Security
3.1.2 Approaches to Computer Security
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0. INTRODUCTION

Security is a subject that has attracted a rapidly growing interest and concern among
social scientists whereby a wide spectrum of issues on the subject have been studied.
The subject (security) has nevertheless attracted new studies, which have produced
new breakthroughs and findings in security approaches and methodologies. The
importance of security cannot be overemphasised, considering the adverse effects that
the absence of law and order can have on the overall development of any society or
nation. The fact that emanates from this intellectual position is that security is very
strategic to actualising any meaningful development and peace in a given community.

Meanwhile, in the next three units including this one, we shall be discussing most of
the basic types of security that exist. Though, there are many types of security, which
we may not be able to cover but most of them shall be explained in this course. The
first type of security that we shall discuss is computer security. Owing to the growing
relevance being enjoyed by computer in recent times, putting in place some measures
to protect our computers from malicious intrusion, malware and other forms of damage
is very necessary and not debatable. It is against this background that we shall beam
our searchlight on the subject (computer security).
2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define the term computer security;

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• Explain various key concepts of computer security; and

• Discuss approaches to computer security

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Computer Security

We are beginning our journey on the discourse-forms of security with the subject
computer security. A layman may define computer security as all aspects of security,
which involves protecting our computing systems from malicious attacks and
intrusion. Meanwhile, let us consider some other definitions of computer security.

Computer security is a branch of technology known as information security as applied

to computers. The objective of computer security includes protection of information
and property from theft, corruption, or natural disaster, while allowing the
information and property to remain accessible...( ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Computer_security).

Computer can also be described as:

...the concept of attaining a secure computing environment (ie, an ideal state free from
risk or danger) by mitigating the vulnerabilities associated with it (Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.).

...a general term relating to measures designed to protect computer assets in all
configurations (.securiguard.com/glossary.html)

Computer security can be described as an aspect of information security which

basically involves putting some measures in place to secure your computers and
networks, or simply protect them against infiltration or illegitimate access or
corruption of data. In recent time, computers have replaced normal traditional paper
system where information is stored in physical files. You go into government
ministries, you often see files on the tables or shelves or storage cabinets marked with
‘confidential’. In Nigeria, almost every file is marked with ‘confidential’ label and the
irony of all, is that any stranger can have access to any of these files because of the
carefree attitude of many public servants, official corruption and absence of security
consciousness that characterize the nation’s bureaucracy.

It is most disheartening the way important and valuable files get missing, with no trace
of recovery. Several pensioners are losing their pension entitlements simply because
their files cannot be traced. Such a situation may have a security implication on the
State. For instance, a pensioner who has a number of children in tertiary institutions,
and he is unable to have his entitlements because his file cannot be traced. Thus, that
poor retiree will not have any money, if he does not have any other means

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of survival, to take care of his family. In this case, the children will need to fend for
themselves, and in the face of job drought, there is the tendency for (some of such)
children to be tempted to engage in anti-social activities like ‘yahoo business’ (online
scam), street begging, stealing, to mention a few, thereby constituting a threat to the
security of the larger community.

Emotionally, the children of the deprived retiree will tend to develop hatred towards
the system that denies their father of his entitlements, the problem that may have also
denied the poor retiree an opportunity to carry-out his financial obligations to the
family. It is only when these children have creative thinking and positive perception
that they will not develop negative emotions, which can sometimes lure them into
social vices. I can remember a colleague of mine in university who always
complained of hunger and financial incapacitation due to late and irregular payment
of the peanuts his father was receiving as pension. The abominable verification
exercise, which pensioners are often subject to, appears to be a source of worry.
Coming to the story of the retiree’s son, consequently, the guy had to fend for
himself, and in the process due to his vulnerability, some of his peers in the
neighbourhood introduced him into armed robbery. He was later arrested but many of
his university colleagues were astonished and sympathetic too because he was not
only homely but also academically brilliant.

The argument here is if someone could engage in crime due to the inability of his
father, to oblige him financially, resulting from late and irregular payment of his
father’s pension by government, then what would be the fate of a dependant whose
father was not paid at all for the inability of the relevant authorities to trace the file that
contains his employment records? The foregoing painted the danger inherent in
ineffective storage and maladministration of information. There is no doubt that
absence of proper management of information can provoke a security threat in any
State.

However, through the use of computer, the long queue and frustration that attend
pensioners’ verification exercise would have fizzled out, and every genuine pensioner
can collect his/her pension promptly and happily without stress. The traditional means
of data management are becoming obsolete. The files that fill up a whole building can
be saved in a small and compact storage device like computer hard disk or removable
disks whereby one can store or/and retrieve or/and amend any file timely and easily.
How much space do you think will be acquired, if we physically have to open files for
ten million people? Here, it may involve occupying a very big building, which may
cost several millions of Naira to acquire but with less than five hundred thousand
Naira, we can get computers of high storage capacity that can accommodate several
hundreds of millions of such files without taking any space beyond that space where
you mount your desk(s) that supports the computer(s). Even, one may not need a desk
at all, with the use of computing systems like laptops.

If information is vital to the continued existence of any organization, it is pertinent to

put in place necessary structures and applications to protect your computer(s) against

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any infiltration or damage. The emergent revolution in Information and

communication technology has rendered the traditional means of storing information
like paper files moribund and computers have gradually replaced them. It is no surprise
that the management of many organizations in Nigeria have begun to mandate their
staff to undergo various computer trainings in order to remain relevant in their various
work places. Many public workers can now use computers effectively, as many
government jobs are carried-out electronically. Many state governments especially
Lagos state have computerized their public service, as most services are now being
rendered through electronic means. Taxes are currently paid by individuals and
corporate bodies through electronic platforms.

Also, the Immigration Services in Nigeria has gone computerized. The processing and
issuance of passport is now done electronically. The process appears to be faster and
more convenient. Now, let us consider a scenario where the details of all those who
have applied for Nigerian passports in the last two years got erased through malicious
attack from intruders or hackers. Another case is a situation whereby the data system
of a commercial bank gets corrupted through virus attack. How do you think, the bank
will manage to get out of such crisis without any back-up? Considering these two
scenarios, it is important to provide adequate security for our computer system(s).

Therefore, essential measures and applications must be put in place, to secure our
computer system especially as security experts. The nature of security profession
demands for adequate computer security, and we should make enough efforts to
protect our computer systems from malicious attack like corruption of data, theft,
intrusion, illegal access to data, and damage emanating from natural disaster. In the
subsequent part of this segment, we shall discuss various ways to secure our computers
but before we do that, let us quickly explain key concepts of computer security in order
to stimulate our better appreciation of the subject.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Describe the term computer security.

3.1.1 Key Concepts in Computer Security

Anti-Virus Software: There has been a conflict among scholars on the originator of
anti-virus software but the history has shown that the first public virus removal task
was performed by Bernt Fix in 1987 (see Wells, 1996). Anti-virus software is used to
detect, prevent and destroy any malware like computer viruses, worms as well as trojan
horses. Apart from protecting the computer against malicious attacks, anti-virus also
helps to detect spyware or any other programmes or websites that can constitute
security threats to the computer system like virus attack, intrusion and hacking. It also
assists the computer user to identify the sites that are not secure, or those designed to
perpetrate scam online, through prompt alert and warning of the imminent danger such
sites pose to the user and/or system, and it will advise that the user should not

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give the details of his/her vital information or better still to close the suspected sites
and avoid copying anything from such sites.

Anti-virus software is actually a set of computer programmes designed purposely to

identify, block or destroy computer viruses and malicious agents with the aim of
protecting the computer from information theft, corruption, hardware damage, to
mention a few. There are various types of anti-virus software in the market today, and
the list may include Norton, AVG, McAfee among others. Due to the way new virus
are generated almost on a daily basis by malicious people for commercial, strategic or
any other reasons, it is very pertinent to upgrade the anti-virus software on one’s
computer from time to time, so that your computing system will be immune from any
malicious attack. Apart from virus attack, hackers may try to break into your system to
steal, modify or delete some of the files in your system or the whole information
contained therein.

Before the advent of internet, computer viruses were usually spread through floppy
disks (diskettes) but now computing systems get infected with viruses and other forms
of malware through the internet. Before now, it was rare for computer to be infected
with computer virus through the use of recordable or rewritable discs but now the story
is different. Computers get attacked by viruses, Trojan horse and worms if they are not
well protected. That is why, it is advisable to restrict access of people into your
computer and avoid the use of storage facilities like MP3, Flash disk, diskette etc, that
have been used somewhere else especially commercial cyber centers without being
scanned properly. It is also important to note that it is most appropriate to delete any
virus infected files that cannot be repaired by your anti-virus package on your
computer system.

Authentication : This involves a technique in which we create password to restrict

access of people to one’s computer. In this case, it is only those with correct password
who can be allowed by the computer to gain entry into it. Authentication can also be
defined as:

...the process of identifying an individual, usually based on a username and password.

In security systems, authentication is distinct from authorisation, which is the process
of giving individuals access to system objects based on their identity. Authentication
merely ensures that the individual is who he or she claims to be, but says nothing
about the access rights of the individual ( ://www.webopedia.com/TERM
/a/authentication.html).

Sometimes, within the same system, there may be several users, each of whom will
create his/her username and password before he/she can access his/her information on
the system but the computer will prevent every user from gaining access to another
user’s information, if he/she fails to provide the correct username and password. There
are several ways computer authentication is initiated by the system, and these may
identify the users through username or/and password, identification cards, smart cards,
as well as biometric systems.

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Automated Theorem Proving: This is a verification tool which allows in secure system,
vital algorithms as well as code to be proven mathematically through which the
specification of the computer can be met.

Backups: These are simply techniques that help us to secure information in our
computing systems by copying and keeping our important files in another storage
locations like a more secure section in the computer hard drive (less reliable because
it goes with the computer in case of theft), MP3 storage device, i-pods, recordable
and/or rewritable discs, tapes, flash disk, external hard drive and file hosting on the
web.

It is noteworthy to know that there are inherent dangers in keeping files on the web, if
adequate security cannot be guaranteed. Highly secure backups are supposed to be
very safe and secure storage locations that are not easily susceptible to theft, loss, or
destruction resulting from fire, heat, water, or even natural disasters. A good example
is a university that has been existing for more than forty years, and experiences fire
outbreak that destroys all its academic records. Without any backups, how do you
think it will be able to supply the academic records of those who have graduated from
the school? You answer may be as the same as mine.

Capability and Access Control List: These techniques are often used to guarantee
privilege separation and compulsory access control.

Chain of Trust: This enables us to verify the authenticity of any software loaded on the
system, through which we can identify the software certified authentic by the system’s
designer.

Cryptographic Techniques: These techniques are applied basically to reduce the risk of
interception or modification of data whenever data are being exchanged between two
or more systems. These techniques involve changing information in such a way that it
will remain unreadable to any intruder when data is being transmitted from one system
to another or from one place to another. In this case, it is only the genuine recipient of
the information that can unravel the content of the message while anybody who gains
access to such message will not understand the content of the message unless he/she
can break the code to unscramble it, which may be very difficult if the encryption is
done very securely.

Encryption: This tool is used to prevent any strange or unintended person from
comprehending the content of the message. It involves scrambling of the information
in a way that it will be unreadable by anybody other than the real recipient(s) whom
the information is meant for. It is the recipient who has the code to unlock the
unreadability of the information that can read through the content of the message. This
approach can be used to send secret or very confidential information to several people
irrespective of their number in as much as they have cryptographic key, which will
enable them to decrypt it.

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Decryption: Decryption can be defined as the tool used with the aim “...reversing an
encryption, i.e. the process which converts encrypted data into its original form”
(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/decryption).

Firewall: This technique helps to protect your system against any malicious attack or
illegal access by hackers and intruders whenever you are online. It alerts you whenever
it senses any intrusion, so that your computer will not be vulnerable to bugs.

Honey pots: These are computing systems made vulnerable to intrusion and attacks by
hackers most times deliberately, to identify areas of defect or vulnerability to effect
fixing it.

Mandatory Access Control (MAC): MAC is used to “protect the network and file
systems, block users from accessing certain ports and sockets, and more”
(://www.freebsd.org/doc/en/books/handbook/mac-understandlabel.html). It is
however advisable for optimum use of policy modules, to load many security policy
modules at the same time with the aim of providing a multi-layered security setting,
and thus “...a multi-layered security environment, multiple policy modules are in effect
to keep security in check” (ibid). The MAC application does not allow the users to
change their access codes indiscriminately because all security features are usually
controlled by the access rules presented by the selected security policy modules. Here,
it is the system administrator that (absolutely) controls the MAC access rules.

Secure Cryptoprocessor: A secure cryptoprocessor can be said to be “a dedicated

computer for carrying out cryptographic operations, embedded in a packaging with
multiple physical security measures, which give it a degree of tamper resistance”
(://neohumanism.org/s/se/secure_cryptoprocessor.html). The essence of a secure
cryptoprocessor is to serve as the foundation of securing the system. It is a security
sub-system that ensures protection of the system against any intrusion or malware.
Some of the examples of secure cryptoprocessor include smart cards and ATM cards.
The ways through which secure cryptoprocessor works include:

• tamper-detecting and tamper-evident containment;

• automatic zeroization of secrets in the event of tampering;
• internal battery backup;
• chain of trust boot-loader which authenticates the operating system before
loading it;
• chain of trust operating system which authenticates application software
before loading it; and
• hardware-based capability registers, implementing a one-way privilege
separation model (://neohumanism.org/s/se/secure_cryptoprocessor.html).

Microkernels: Microkernel can be described as a computer kernel that enables relevant

mechanisms, which help to initiate an operating system like low-level address space
management, thread management, and inter-process communication. In a

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situation whereby multiple privilege levels are offered by the hardware, “.the
microkernel is the only software executing at the most privileged level (generally
referred to as supervisor or kernel mode). Actual operating system services, such as
device drivers, protocol stacks, file systems and user interface code are contained in
user space” (Joe, 1996 cited on ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microkernel). In securing the
computing system, microkernels are often used for systems designed to use high
security applications like KeyKOS, EROS and strategic security systems.

3.1.2 Approaches to Computer Security

a) Security Design: There are several ways through, which security systems are
designed. It is paramount to mount effective security strategies that can ensure
adequate safety for computing systems. One of such ways is to initiate the
principle of least privilege that “where an entity has only the privileges that
are needed for its functions” ( ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_security). In
this case, if an intruder gains access (illegally) into a part of the system, it will
be difficult for him/her to access the whole system due to the fine-grained
security.

It is therefore advisable to mount a security design that breaks the system into
several smaller units whereby each of the units is designed less complicated,
which may involve the application of automated theorem proving to verify the
exactness of key software subsystems. In a situation where formal correctness is
missing, careful application of code review and unit testing will be a best-effort
approach in securing the modules. Enough efforts should also be made to
discourage or eliminate security breaches by the system users, and it is
therefore, important to create full audit trails that will assist us to detect and
determine the nature of breach, its degree and the time it occurs. Audit trials
should be stored very discretely in such a way that it will be difficult for the
intruder to track it to cover up every trace of the illegal entry;

b) Security Architecture: Security Architecture is also a very viable approach to

computer and information security. It simply means the design artefacts explain
the state of existing security controls or security countermeasures, showing how
they relay with the general information technology architecture. The security
controls basically focus on providing platform to enhance the capacity of the
system to sustain quality attributes including confidentiality, integrity,
availability, accountability and assurance (see Error! Hyperlink reference not
valid.). Security Architecture assists us to identify the areas that demand much
security measure, and thus, “if the plan describes a specific solution then, prior
to building such a plan, one would make a risk analysis”, but in a situation
where “the plan describes a generic high level design (reference architecture)
then the plan should be based on a threat analysis” (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.); and

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c) Secure Hardware: Computer security can be enhanced through hardware-based

security because of the capacity of hardware-based security solutions to present
strong resistance against bugs and intrusion. It can deny any intruder or hacker
the avenue to read and write access to data.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What are the approaches of computer security?

4.0 CONCLUSION

Introduction of computer to the world population has really affected the culture of
information generation, storage and amendment among the people. People have now
found it more convenient and safer to use computer to do all forms of activities
regarding their collection, collation and storage as well as amendment of information.
Computer systems, apart from convenience, help us to store a lot of information and
reduce the risk of data-loss through file-mishandling, file-missing and destruction of
files by man-made and natural security threats or attacks. It is against the background
of the importance of computer systems to information management that it is
mandatory on our own part, to secure our computers and protect them against any
malicious attack or hazard. In the subsequent units, we shall be exploring other forms
of security.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

Due to the limited space and time that we have on each of our lessons, in this unit, we
were only able to discuss one of the forms of security-computer security.
Notwithstanding, we began our discussion by examining the meaning of computer
security. Thereafter, we explained various concepts of computer security, and the third
and the last area of inquiry on the subject was a list of approaches to security
management. As stressed earlier, we shall continue our task of identifying and
discussing various forms of security subsequently. Thank you very much for your
patience and drive for learning.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSINGMENT

a) What is computer security?

b) List any four concepts of computer security;
c) Discuss any two approaches of computer security.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Kinkus, J.F. (2002). Science and Technology Resources on the Internet: Computer
Security. Issues in Science and Technology Librarianship, No. 36. Available on
://www.istl.org/02-fall/index.html. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

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Wells, Joe (1996). Virus Timeline. Available on ://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/

Microkernel. Retrieved on 31 July 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_security. Retrieved on 1 August 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/decryption. Retrieved on 2 August, 2009.

://neohumanism.org/s/se/secure_cryptoprocessor.html. Retrieved on 31 July 2009.

://www.freebsd.org/doc/en/books/handbook/mac-understandlabel.html. Retrieved on
31 July 2009.

://www.webopedia.com/TERM/a/authentication.html. Retrieved 1 August 2009.

.infosat.tamu.edu/students/glry/htmossa. Retrieved on 31 August, 2009.

.opensecurityarchitecture.com. Quoted on ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Computer _

security. Retrieved on 31 July 2009.

.securiguard.com/glossary.html. Retrieved on 31 August, 2009.

UNIT 2

BASIC TYPES OF SECURITY II

CONTENTS

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1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Information Security
3.1.1 Approaches to Information Security
3.2 Meaning of Physical Security
3.2.1 Approaches to Physical Security
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m mar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

In this unit, we shall continue our search for the basic existing forms of security. Do
not forget, in the last unit, time and space only allowed us to discuss the meaning and
key concepts of computer security (a form of security) as well as its various
approaches. In furtherance of our study on forms of security, we shall introduce a new
set of forms of security to the reader. The two forms of security that we shall consider
in this unit for our study include information security and physical security. In that
case, let us quickly highlight the various tasks we shall undertake in this study unit.
These shall be found in the next segment of the unit.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Explain the meaning of information security;

• Identify and discuss various approaches to information security; and

• Define the concept of physical security; and

• Describe key approaches to physical security.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Information Security

Information security can be defined as a means of protecting information systems from

any illegitimate access and use, theft, amendment, or malicious attacks or

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penetration. Information security can also be described as “the process by which an

organization protects and secures its systems, media, and facilities that process and
maintain information vital to its operations” (://www.ffiec.gov/ffiecinfobase
/booklets/information_security/information_security.pdf).

Conceptually, it is important to clarify the differences in the meaning between the

terms information security and computer security, which are often mistaken for each
other. There is no doubt that the two concepts are inter-related because professionally
speaking, they aim to advance the protection of information through the principles of
confidentiality, integrity and availability. Despite the similar goals they both articulate
or simply pursue, the two terms still have some differences. These differences are
fundamentally found in their approaches, methodologies and variability in their areas
of focus. Here, information security concentrates on ways to provide adequate
confidentiality, integrity and availability of information but is less concerned on the
data form, be it electronic or print or any other forms of data. So, information security
goes beyond the use of computer to create, modify, delete or store information.
Therefore, its boundary goes beyond the mere electronic medium.

On the other hand, in computer security, the central focus is on the techniques that
enhance the availability and correct operation of a computer system with little attention
on information stored and processed by the computer. One thing to note from the
foregoing is the limited boundary that computer security acquires in information
discourse. The point is that computer is entirely electronic, and there are other means
like print through which we generate, amend, store or discard information. It is against
this background that we conclude that information security is wider in scope than
computer security, but they complement the functions and operations of each other.

Away from conceptual differences between information security and computer

security, the experience of state and actors in the contemporary World has shown the
growing relevance of information security. The increasing complexity of the modern
state and sophisticated nature of contemporary business environment and corporations
underscore the importance in mounting relevant mechanisms towards the protection of
information and information system. For instance, let us look at the commercial banks
in Nigeria in the 20th century, by the close of that century, virtually none of the banks
could boast of having a capital base of US$ 1 billion. Again, during that period, online
financial transactions like the use of ATMs, online shopping etc, were either non-
existent or very limited.

Similarly, the period saw majority of the banks not having services that could enable
their customers to save and withdraw their money from any of their branches without
any geographic limitation, while most banks did not have up to one hundred thousand
customers. Due to the opportunities provided by information technology revolution
and recapitalization agenda of the Nigerian government, the financial sector is
proactive in increasing their capital base and improving on their information system.
The emergent information technology breakthroughs especially the development of
groundbreaking computer software and electronic machines like ATM have really

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helped in gradually fizzling-out long queues and the use of tally number as well as the
traditional way of counting money by the cashiers (now we have money counting
machines).

Nostalgically, I remember those days when customers would wake up as early as 4am
in order to reach their respective banks latest by 6am in order to be attended to early
enough due to heavy traffic of customers. Sometimes, one gets to the bank early and
finds some people already on the queue outside the bank premises. Then one would be
asking himself if those met on the queue slept at home. Now, with the introduction of
ATM, people can withdraw money electronically anytime and anywhere, and the
interswitch nature of the ATM has further made it easy for people to cash their money.
The era of traditional restriction to one’s bank appears to be no more. A Wema Bank
customer with interswitch ATM can cash his/her money in an ATM platform mounted
at any First Bank branch or other banks. Even, the modern information technology
allows one to transact business, trade and do some shopping online in a corner of your
home.

However, considering the opportunities provided by the modern information

technology, financial transactions, trading, information exchange, mailing,
communication etc, have been made so easy. You should note that there are always
two sides to a coin. Though, there is so much convenience and fun derivable from
modern information system, it can be awful considering the amount of risk and danger
in it. For instance, if one wants to purchase items online and logs on a wrong web
platform hosted to perpetrate scam, and you ignorantly provide your credit card details,
loss of money can occur.

For this reason, people are being alerted to be very careful when doing online
transactions. One of the ways to reduce such risk is to install very strong security
software that can easily detect and inform you if you are on a malicious site. Many
organizations have gone into comatose or collapse for suffering malicious attacks like
stealing, modifying, corrupting or deleting of vital information. It is therefore very
important to put in place viable structures and programmes to protect your information.
Now, let us quickly explain some of the methods we can use to safeguard our
information systems and protect our information.

3.1.1 Approaches to Information Security

A) Confidentiality: In securing information systems, it is very germane to

mount necessary machineries to advance the confidentiality of information.
It is very paramount for the management of any organization to enlighten its
staff on the need to take the issue of information so seriously. They need to
know that it is very essential to prevent the very vital information of the
organization from disclosure to unauthorized person(s) or system(s). Stiff
penalty should be applied against any erring staff to deter others from doing
the same. By commission or omission, if confidential information gets into

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wrong hands or unauthorized person(s) or system(s), it will amount to a

breach of confidentiality.

Let us use an ATM transaction as an example. You may decide to procure a

standard international passports, for the reasons best known to you, and you
are aware that you can do your application online, then you log-on the
website of the Nigerian Immigration Services to begin the process for your
e-passport application. After filling the necessary forms online, you are
requested to proceed with your payment, and here, you are given two
options: offline or online payment. You may decide to do the payment
online with the use of your ATM card. In the process, the system will
demand for your ATM details through ETRANSACT platform, and you
provide it correctly. The gateway will debit your account where the ATM
card domiciles, and consequently you will be allowed into the next stage of
the application process after the confirmation of your payment, which will
be electronically receipted.

Here, you need to be careful by not allowing anybody to peep into your
financial transaction to avoid an unauthorized person to have access to your
secret (pin) code, and if you allow such to happen before or during or after
the time of making the transaction, you have committed a breach of
confidentiality. You should know that it is incumbent on the organization(s)
you transact with online to uphold the principle of confidentiality.
Expectedly, when you are making your transaction, your credit card or ATM
card details including pin-code will be transmitted from you to the
organization/party with whom you transact business, and the details will also
be transmitted from the said organization to a transaction processing
network.

The system will ensure that confidentiality is enforced by encrypting your

ATM details especially the pin-code during the transmission, and which are
stored in a very secure location with very highly restricted access. In a
situation whereby you confirm that unauthorized person(s) has access into
your financial details while the fault or criminal intent does not emanate
from you, you have right to institute a legal action against such erring
organization for a breach of confidentiality.

Again, if your spouse is allowed to access the statement of your bank

account without being authorized, it is also tantamount to a breach of
confidentiality, and the affected person can institute a legal action or
warning to the bank management for the breach, or may close down his/her
account for lack of security necessitated by the confidentiality breach. For
one having the right to sue for a breach of confidentiality involving his/her
own spouse, what justification does a stranger or a distanced person have in
having access to one’s information without authorization? This simply
shows that information security is very important. It will be baseless, if the

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management of an organization argues that it will not be liable if an offence

of breach of confidentiality is committed by any of its staff without its
involvement against any customer especially if it involves loss of money.

Recently, due to the importance of information, the approach of due care

and due diligence has been adopted in information security. Due care
involves measures and actions that are taken by a company not only to
protect its corporate image but also show liability for all activities that take
place within it, and establish regulations that will help to protect the
company, its resources and employees. Due diligence means “continual
activities that make sure the protection mechanisms are continually
maintained and operational” (Harris, 2003). Therefore, if an organization
fails in its responsibilities to check the activities of its staff, it will definitely
be liable for any misdeed perpetrated by any of its staff such as disclosure of
a customer’s information to an unauthorized person, leading to a breach of
confidentiality;

B) Integrity : Integrity can be described as a way of protecting information by

restricting access permission to modification of data without authorization.
Here, no amendment can be made on the data without authorization. In
information security, efforts should be made to restrict activities of users of
the systems from any data modification without being authorized. There are
several ways through which the integrity of an information system can be
violated. One of such ways is accidental or deliberate exposure of the system
to malicious attacks.

Undoubtedly, this kind of violation occurs in many organizations where

employees exhibit non-challant attitude or criminal intent to compromise
the integrity of the system. For instance, in some organizations with large
network of information systems, family members, siblings or friends, even
neighbours visit some employees, and many of these visitors may be
allowed to use organisation’s computers especially when they are connected
to the internet. These persons use all sorts of storage facilities to down load
information from the internet. This attitude is likely to violate the integrity
of the information system because apart from exposing the system to
malware or virus attack, it will also allow strangers or visitors access to
information, which ordinarily they are not supposed to access in the first
instance;

C) Availability: Information system cannot be complete if there is no

availability of information. It is the availability of information that makes
information system what it is. Therefore, it is imperative to have a network
of actions functioning well. These actions include the computer system that
is tasked with the storing and processing of the information while the
security controls do the protection of the system, and the communication
channels enable the users to access that information.

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If we consider this network of functions, it is difficult to have ‘high

availability systems’ in countries like Nigeria where there is frequent power
outage that can easily disrupt the operation of the system. High availability
systems are those systems that are always available, and they demand that
necessary mechanisms be brought to bear to prevent disruptions that may
result from hardware failures, power outages, physical destruction of the
information systems, to mention a few;

D) Authenticity: Information security demands that we can just collect

information whether electronic or print for the sake of it, but we should
endeavour to clarify the authenticity or genuineness of such information. It
is through this way we can have reliable and quality information;

E) Risk Management : Everything about life is a risk. There is risk in the

relationship between two or more people, even within oneself. How do we
describe risk management? According to CISA Review Manual (2006), risk
management can be described as:

...the process of identifying vulnerabilities and threats to the information

resources used by an organization in achieving business objectives, and
deciding what countermeasures, if any, to take in reducing risk to an
acceptable level, based on the value of the information resource to the
organization.

Risk is everyday business of every man. Sometimes, we decide in the middle

of the road to see a loved one in his/her place of work, even after notifying
him/her of our intention, yet a conscious mind will still have a doubt in
meeting him/her at the office because every second is clouded with
eventuality. It is possible that the receptionist will just inform us that he/she
had an emergency from the headquarters and he/she tried to get you on
phone to inform you about the new development (urgent call to report at the
headquarters) but he/she could not reach you on phone.

Considering that scenario, risk is the second nature of man. The decision of
a man and a lady to get married is a risk: the marriage may succeed or fail. It
is against this background that many people adopt various approaches or
measures to manage risk in their relationships. In information security, risk
management is very essential because it determines the preparedness of an
organization against any threat as it relates to its information system.

Furthermore, in as much as information from its collection, modification to

erasure involves risk, it is pertinent to develop countermeasures or controls
to manage the risks but it is more important to “strike a balance between
productivity, cost, effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the value of

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the informational asset being protected” (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

Information_security); and

F) Information Classification : There are different types of information in

information system, and there is a need to classify according to their level of
importance and confidentiality. By doing this, we will be able identify the
amount of protection to be accorded to each of these available information.
For the purpose of engendering the culture of information security, it is
imperative for organisations to adopt a classification policy, so that it will be
able to determine the required security controls of every information in
accordance with its classification.

For instance, the head of an organization should not see himself as a ‘man of
God’ and a good husband while he has some extra-marital affair with a
former female staff whom he communicates with from time to time. May be
because he is not exposed to good use of internet and he always asks his
male secretary to help him with the mails to his ‘lady-friend’, and mandates
the secretary to classify the mails as top secret, giving more importance to it
than the very important information of the organization. This example
reflects a clear case of misuse of office and misclassification because it is
abnormal to place private issues above those that concern the organisation in
a work environment.

Within an organizational setting, we classify information based on the value

each of it has to the organization. In private organizations, classification
model usually labels as: public, sensitive, private, confidential. But in big
security outfits and government organizations the classification labels used
include: unclassified, sensitive, but unclassified, restricted, confidential,
secret, top secret. These classification labels are listed according to the
security controls needed in protecting them, and the classification exercise
should be continually reviewed.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain approaches to information security.

3.2 Meaning of Physical Security

Physical security involves creating designs that deter malicious entry into the facility.
Here, the facility can be described within various contexts. It may mean office or
private apartment, information systems, safe, among others. Physical Security can also
be described as:
...the measures used to provide physical protection of resources against deliberate and
accidental threats (.tsl.state.tx.us/ld/pubs/compsecurity/glossary.html)

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

...protecting the system unit, system devices, and backup media from accidental or
deliberate damage (http://publib.boulder.ibm.com/infocenter/iseries/v5r4/topic/rza
mv/rzamvbasicterm.html).

...the protection of personnel, hardware, programs, networks, and data from physical
circumstances and events that could cause serious losses or damage to an enterprise,
agency, or institution. This includes protection from fire, natural disasters, burglary,
theft, vandalism, and terrorism ( ://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/sDefinition
/0,,sid14_gci1150976,00.html).

Due to revolution in modern technology, many innovations have been made in

fortifying the security of facilities. For instance, there are some computers that will
demand for your biometric information before you are granted access into it. When
we talk about biometrics, it is not actually about username or password, the security
technology of biometric usually involves hi-tech security measures especially where
computer will request to take the finger-print and eye(s) sample of the intending user
to know his/her permission status. If the specimen is not found to be among the list of
authorised users, you will not be able to gain access. Some of these systems are made
in a way that if you make any attempt of forcefully gaining illegal access, the
machines will alert the relevant security guards of the intrusion attempt, and before
you know what is happening, the security guards are there to effect your arrest.

I know many of us may be wondering why Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) are
not usually attacked to get the money loaded in them. The truth is that most times,
especially in developed countries, attempting to steal money from the ATMs is
usually an effort in futility because, even, if one is able to gain entry into the machine,
the money will be destroyed. The machine may destroy the money by making some
stamps on it, so that such money can be identified as stolen money from the ATMs.
And in this case, nobody will accept the money and the law enforcement agents will
also be alerted to arrest the culprit.

Meanwhile, I don't think we have orientation to that extent in Nigeria, which will
make the people to identify money stolen from ATMs. Please, be cautious not to
mistake breaking into ATMs to steal money loaded in it for illegal ATM transactions
like the theft of someone's ATM card. Here, we are discussing a situation where
someone destroys the automated teller machines to steal the money loaded in it.
Notwithstanding, in Nigeria, the security measure to deter criminals from looting the
money from ATMs may be by automating the machines, if they suspect such illegal
entry, to destroy the money in it, so that they can become unspendable for the looters.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe physical security?

3.2.1 Approaches to Physical Security

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In summary, physical security can be explained from three different approaches, all of
which are interdependent in order to provide adequate physical security for any
facility. These approaches include the following:

(a) The first approach is concerned with mounting obstacles or barriers that can
prevent the potential attackers or intruders or malicious personalities from
gaining easy access into the facility. The attackers, be it accidents,
environmental disaster or human attackers will be impeded by putting in place
some measures like multiple locks, fencing, walls, fireproof safes, and water
sprinklers, to mention a few;

(b) The second perspective to physical security is installation of surveillance and

notification, which will help us to optimise the security of the facility by
monitoring and detecting the activities of (potential) attackers to the facility.
This involves the use of such security methods like installation of lighting, heat
sensors, smoke detectors, intrusion detectors, alarms, and cameras; and

(c) The third approach involves putting in place measures that can help in effecting
the arrest of attackers or hazards. For instance, there should be security guards
that will act promptly and effectively when alert of attack is raised to arrest the
attackers. Also, in fighting such fire incidents, it is expected for us to have fire-
fighting equipment or call professional fire-fighters to come to rescue in
quenching the fire. There is the need too, to have in place emergency workers
and disaster managers for hazard and disaster mitigation. These and other
measures will help us to recover quickly from accidents, fires, or natural
disasters.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the three basic approaches to physical security.

4.0 CONCLUSION

Considering the various forms already discussed within the last two units, security
profession is very versatile. This is because each of these forms demands expertise in
the fields, and that is the reason why we have different departments or divisions or
areas in security sector. In this case, it is expected to do the placements to various
available departments according to their expertise in the relevant fields. It is only
when this is done that there can be optimal performance among the security
professionals. In the next unit, we shall complete our task in explaining various forms
of security.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we continued our discussion on various forms of security. The first form of
security that attracted our attention was information security. Consequently, we
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explained the meaning of information security, and as its various approaches were also
explained. Thereafter, we beamed our search-light on the second form of security in
this unit, as we described what physical security is all about. Our final area of
discourse, however, was plotting an inquiry into the list of approaches to physical
security. At this point, it is my belief that you have found this unit intellectually
stimulating.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Write a short note on:

a) The Meaning of information security and any three of its approaches; and

b) The meaning of physical security.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

CISA Review Manual (2006). Systems Audit and Control Association

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_security. Retrieved on 1 August, 2009.

://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/ sDefinition/0,,sid14_gci1150976,00.html. Retrieved

on 2 August, 2009.

http://publib.boulder.ibm.com/infocenter/iseries/v5r4/topic/rzamv/rzamvbasicterm.ht
m. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://www.ffiec.gov/ffiecinfobase/booklets/information_security/information_security.p
df. Retrieve on 2 August 2009.

.tsl.state.tx.us/ld/pubs/compsecurity/glossary.html). Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

UNIT 3

BASIC TYPES OF SECURITY III

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CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Infrastructure Security
3.2 Seaport Security
3.3 Airport Security
3.3.1 Elements of Airport Security
3.4 Food security
3.5 Health Security
3.6 Economic Security
3.7 Environment Security
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

In the two previous units, we have discussed some of the basic forms of security
including computer security, information security and physical security. To complete
our task, we shall explain some other forms of security in this unit, which will include
infrastructure security, seaport security, airport security, food security, and a host of
other forms of security. Before we go into the nitty-gritty of this unit, let us quickly
look at the objectives of the study. This, we shall do in the next segment of the unit.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Describe the meaning of infrastructure security;

• Discuss what seaport security is all about;
• Elucidate on the meaning of airport security;
• Explain food security;
• Define health security;
• Clarify the meaning of economic security; and
• Examine what environmental security denotes.
3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Infrastructure Security

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Infrastructure security can be described as that aspect of security designed purposely

to provide protection for specific infrastructure particularly those infrastructure
considered critical. The examples of critical infrastructure may include airports, sea
ports, railway, network communications, hospitals, Central Bank, dams, oil
refineries among others. Highways and bridges are also an aspect of critical
infrastructure (://www.tsa.gov/travelers/highway/index.htm). Due to very high
importance that these infrastructures have on the lives and overall wellbeing of the
people, it is paramount to provide adequate security for them and immune them
against any threat or attack.

Take for instance, if the dams or water systems that supply water to all households in a
community is poisoned, so many lives will be lost due to that attack? So, every
government is expected to make efforts to equip infrastructure considered critical with
enough security in order to avoid disaster. Another example is where the airport is not
well secured and there is no doubt that there is the tendency that it can easily be
attacked by terrorists or saboteurs. Similarly, if an airport or seaport is considered
porous, it will be easy for enemies to bring into the country harmful and destructive
materials that can undermine the security of that country.

Nonetheless, this shows how important it is to provide adequate security for the
infrastructure. it is a matter of fact that any damage intentionally or accidentally done
to the critical infrastructure will have far-reaching effect on the economy and overall
security of the country. For instance, the continued destruction of gas pipes often
disrupts level of power supply in the country with serious consequences for the power
generation capacity of the Power Holden Company of Nigeria (PHCN). The threats
that can damage infrastructure basically include the following (which shall be
discussed extensively later in this course):

•• Sabotage;
•• Terrorism;
•• Natural disaster; and
•• Information warfare

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is infrastructure security?

3.2 Seaport Security

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Ports are simply passages that lead into any country. Apart from seaports, people also
use airports for the shipment of their cargos from one destination to the other.
Meanwhile, the quantity of loads will determine which of these two ports should be
used for the shipment. The seaports are where major shipping activities take place.
And they are also vulnerable to security threats. for instance, through seaports, some
(unsuspected) criminals can bring in hazardous goods like expired drugs, contraband
products, illegal arms and ammunitions, among others. At this point, how do you
describe seaport security? Seaport security can simply be described as:

...the defense, law and treaty enforcement, and counterterrorism activities that fall
within the port and maritime domain. It includes the protection of the seaports
themselves, the protection and inspection of the cargo moving through the ports, and
maritime security (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_security).

There is no doubt that seaport security is very strategic to the political sovereignty and
security of any country, and that is why governments of various countries take the
issue of fortifying their ports as a very important one. The reason is that any
government that fails to secure its seaports can be said to be on the verge of losing its
sovereign power because not only the government but also the public at large will be
vulnerable to threats especially if enemies bring into the country materials that are
harmful and destructive.

Take for instance, if there is no provision of sufficient security at the seaports, there
may be a situation of proliferation of weapons and small arms in that country, and
terrorists can easily operate where there is no adequate security at the ports. Here,
enemies can easily hide destructive objects like bombs, guns, chemical weapons
among others in the containers, which they may later use against the country. This
view is shared by Greenberg et al., when they state “that whenever and wherever a
container is handled during movement represents a potential vulnerability for the
security and integrity of the cargo” (Greenberg et al., 2006 cited on Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.). There is no doubt that any poor security handling of cargo can
expose the country to security risk.

For instance, in a country where there is sharp ethno-religious division like Nigeria,
circulation of such weapons can engineer insurgency and growing criminality as
experienced in the country in recent time. The level of sophistication in armed robbery
operation and the weapons the bandits use in recent time, calls for total restructuring of
our security sector and policy. It is a fact that most of these dangerous weapons are not
manufactured locally but come into the country through the seaports and borders. The
attendant consequences that accompany arms proliferation in Nigeria underscore the
strategic relevance of effective port security.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Describe seaport security.

3.3 Airport Security

Airport is a place that involves an aspect of transportation. People travel either by road
or sea or rail or air. All these means of transportation deserve to be provided with
sufficient security. It is no exaggeration that airport has continued to receive greater
attention due to very strategic reasons. One of the reasons is that it is the most popular
means of transportation, it is the fastest. And apart from being a means of moving
people from one destination to another, it is also used in transporting goods. The
journey that may take a ship three weeks or more can be covered by a plane in hours.
Airport accommodates a large number of people including the travellers, the crew and
management of various airliners present at the airport(s) as well as those who escort
travellers to departure lounge and those waiting to receive travellers on arrival. It is a
network of people having different motives and it is important to put in place adequate
security to protect lives and property at the airport.

Another reason is that airport has become one of the veritable avenues being exploited
by terrorists to carry-out their attacks. The ugly incidents of terrorist attacks in many
airports have necessitated the need by various countries to fortify the security in their
airports with the aim of making their airports less vulnerable to any enemy's attack.
Previously, less attention was paid on screening the passengers for the possession of
small arms and weapons which were usually hidden in their hand bags Some of the
incidents may include arbitrary killing of innocent civilians by terrorists and those
disgruntled elements who often call themselves freedom fighters

The list of terrorist attacks through airports is long. One of such terrible occasions was
a Cubana Flight 455 flying from Barbados to Jamaica, which was attacked by terrorists
on October 6, 1976 where seventy-three people were murdered. Another case was Air
India Flight 182, which experienced bomb attack that led to the killing of 329 innocent
people. On 30 May 1972, a gang of three terrorists who were linked to the Japanese
Red Army, shot and threw grenades at people sporadically at Lod Airport (now Ben
Gurion International Airport) in Tel Aviv, Israel. Before they were overpowered, they
had already killed twenty-four people as no less than seventy-eight people sustained
various degrees of injury.

Again, in December 1985, the Rome and Vienna airports also became targets of
terrorist attacks. The terrorists took advantage of security lapses in these airports to
carry out their nefarious acts. They shot and threw grenades at people leading to the
killing of no less than 20 people. The most serious of all was the September 11, 2001
terrorist attack where some commercial planes were hijacked by terrorists linked to Al-
Qaeda network that were deliberately crashed by the terrorists into the World Trade
Centre and Pentagon while the one meant to be crashed on the White House was
forced down by the passengers on board, missing the target.
3.31 Elements of Airport Security

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CSS 244 Types and Analysis of Security Threats

Due to the large number of people being accommodated on a daily basis at airports
worldwide, various governments have began to install different security systems. The
infrastructure in most airports especially in the US and UK since the 9/11 incident are
being fortified with all sorts of security gadgets and procedures, as dictated by the
kinds of security challenges being experienced in various airports. For example, before
now, the presence of touts and area boys was very evident in major airports in Nigeria.
During that time, stealing of travellers' belongings and baggage was very rampant. The
new security measures put in place since the civilian administration of Obasanjo
(1999-2007) has drastically reduced the presence of touts in our airports. The incidence
of missing baggage is reducing fast by the day. Let us quickly discuss some of the
elements of effective airport security.

(a) Airport security personnel : The enforcement authority in the airports vary
according to the class of each of the airports. There are first class airports that
can serve as international airport to be used as entry and exit point for
travellers coming or leaving the country. Conventionally, an international
airport must definitely satisfy international aviation safety standards and
should be equipped with facilities that can accommodate big aircrafts. The
reason is that not all aircrafts can be accommodated by every airport. That is
why some airports are used for local travels, many of which can only
accommodate relatively small aircrafts.

Apart from the class of airports, the amount of security threats being
experienced in an airport also determines the level of security to be provided
in the place. By and large, most incidents of terrorist attack are usually
effected through international airports, and this makes it pertinent to assign
enough security personnel there. Unlike countries like the United States
where state and local governments have highest control in the provision of
security personnel to the airports, in Nigeria, airport law enforcement whether
in local or international airports is largely controlled by federal law
enforcement agencies. Well, the type of security personnel arrangement, you
are likely to find at any international airport depends largely on the security
policy of each country. For instance in Nigeria, there is absence of state police
and no state government can provide security for any local airports without
seeking assistance from the federal government. Generally, in airports, the
security agencies that can be found may include:

•• Policemen and officers specially attached to the airports;

•• Situating a permanent police station at the airport stocked with adequate

equipment and competent personnel;

•• Members of the Public Intelligence Community like State Security

Service (as in Nigeria) who will be stationed as strategic locations
within and outside the airports to gather security-related information

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that can be used to prevent or reduce crime or terrorist threat at the

airports;

• :• There must be the presence of some members of (other)

paramilitary agencies like Immigration Service and Customs Service
to identify illegal immigrants or immigrants considered a threat or
importers/exporters of harmful and banned products, and the culprits
should be arrested, investigated and if found wanting necessary steps
should be taken to subject them to immediate prosecution;

• :• There must be the presence of emergency team at the airports that

can respond timely and effectively to events of disaster like plane
crash or fire outbreak at the airports;

• :• There must be the presence of anti-bomb experts at the airports to

detect concealed bomb items or detonate any explosive found at or
around the airports;

• :• Services of police dogs should also be secured for the detection of

explosives, hard-drugs and dangerous objects;

• :• Location of military barracks near the airports or situating a unit

consisting of the military forces within the airports to provide
complementary security services at the airports in protecting the
nation’s airports against any internal or external aggression;

• :• The use of Private Guards: Private security personnel can play

complementary roles in providing security to the airport(s). For
instance in Spain, private security officials are allowed by the
government to provide security services at the airport. The airliners
can also be encouraged to contract private security guards, the
practice which exists in some countries. Some of these guards may
not able to conduct the main screening at the screening points. They
can still use the method of “screening the passengers by observation
techniques” (SPOT) that is already being used in several airports in
the United States (://wn.wikipwdia.org/wiki/Airport_security), and

(b) Installation of security equipment: In recent times especially resulting from the
experience of the September 11 terrorist attack in the US, most countries have
fortified their airports with sophisticated security equipment. With metal
detector, security officials can easily identify someone with arms or weapons
even knife and other sharp objects that can be used to harm the passengers
and crew at any aircraft. In most international airport, it is illegal for
restaurant operators within specific locations in the airports to use plates that
may be converted into weapons by terrorists. In those restaurants, the operator
use plastic to serve their customers. Technological advancement has

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brought about invention of very effective explosive machines or gadgets like

X-ray machines, explosive trace detection (EDT), and puffer machines. These
machines are used to conduct screening of baggage and other travelling
materials to detect if any has any explosive substance particularly volatile
compounds that can make explosives using gas chromatography. According
to Edward J. Staples (Ultrahigh-speed) gas chromatography (GC) can be
described as:

...a powerful method for analyzing odours, fragrances, and chemical vapours
produced by explosives, chemical and biological weapons, contraband, and
hazardous industrial materials. A new chemical-profiling system directly
measures odour concentration and intensity with an integrated GC sensor.
Using a solid-state surface- acoustic-wave (SAW) sensor with electronically
variable sensitivity, it identifies the chemical species in the vapours inside
cargo containers and determines their concentrations in 10 s with pictogram
sensitivity (see ://www.aip.org/tip/ INPHFA/vol-10/iss-3/p22.html).

The invention of backscatter X-ray scanners makes it possible to detect any

hidden weapons and weapons any passenger may have on him/her. Here,
passengers are asked to move close to a flat panel and in the process a high
resolution image is produced through which someone with weapon(s) can be
identified and arrested immediately for further interrogation.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is Airport security?

3.4 Food security

The situation brought about by the introduction of exclusively crude-oil economy in

Nigeria in the 1970s has put the agricultural sector of the nation’s economy into
comatose. Nigeria that used to be one of the greatest food baskets and a major exporter
of agricultural products in the world has become a perpetual importer of food items,
meaning that, adequately feeding the masses would be a difficult task. There is no
doubt that the agricultural sector has become moribund. More than 70% of urban
dwellers go about on empty stomachs. The pervasive hunger that rents the air has
continued to make people more vulnerable by the day. This situation has been one of
the major contributing factors to the increasing crime rate in the country especially the
urban centres. In order to make food available abundantly to the people, government
needs to adopt strategic and policy actions that can engender food security in the
country. Then, what is food security? Food security can be described as:

...the reliable availability of a sufficient quantity and quality of nutritious food for a
population (.personal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/f.html).

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...the availability of food - in other words whether it is physically available and if so at

what price. The term is sometimes confused with that of food safety which refers to the
extent to which food is safe to eat (http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/glossary/index _en
.htmm).

...having access at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life ( .pbs.org/
wgbh/rxforsurvival/glossary.html.

Bearing in mind the foregoing definitions of food security, availability of food is very
germane to the maintenance of law and order in any society. It is therefore important
for every society or country to initiate policies, which can create the opportunity to
provide the people with food in qualitative and quantitative terms. However, food
security underscores the strategic importance that self sustenance in food production
has on the security of any nation. Though, the interdependence that dominates
relations among nations also includes food. This is because there are particular types
of agricultural items that cannot be grown in one country but which can be found in
another country. For the fact that food is not luxury but necessity, a secure society will
always undertake activities that will enhance their capacity to produce food locally,
and endeavour as much as it can, to avoid importing the food items it can produce
locally.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you explain food security?

3.5 Health Security

This involves safety against HIV-AIDS pandemics and other diseases. It is part of
government responsibilities to provide health security for its citizens, knowing the
impact that good health condition(s) can have on the development of any country.
That is why in advanced countries, government provides the platform to promote
healthy living among the people. Health security is very crucial to national
development, and that is the reason countries like the United States have created
opportunity for their people to access national health insurance scheme, where
everybody will make contribution (premium) to the scheme. When they fall sick,
there is insurance cover that will take care of their hospital bills according to their
policy type(s).

In addition, most governments usually have some strategic interventions to respond to

health crisis and pandemics. One of such interventionist techniques is awareness
programme by educating the people about the danger of the outbreak of some diseases
particularly those that are infectious like HIV/AIDS, SARS, and tuberculosis, to
mention a few. Enlightenment also helps to guide people against (reckless) lifestyles
and ignorance, which can aid the spread of disease(s) especially those with high
contagion.

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Also, in most states, sanitation officers are appointed by government to ensure strict
compliance of people to environmental and sanitation laws. The reason is not only to
ensure good sanitation behaviour but also to guarantee the health security of the state.
Another way of providing health security is by putting in place free health services for
the people. Though, this kind of programme is very expensive, there are some
governments that still take up the responsibility of providing both qualitative and
quantitative health services to the people at low cost. The purpose of doing this is to
provide health security for the people.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Define health security.

3.6 Economic Security

This can be described as a way of putting in place measures and strategies that will
ensure that every individual in the state is not only entitled to employment but also
has the right to a living wage. In advanced countries, government often puts in place
social security for citizens who are out of job whereby stipends are provided for the
citizens to keep body and soul together. But, it is quite unfortunate that in most
developing countries, unemployed people are left to their own fate, such that nothing
is provided by government to ameliorate the plights of unemployed citizens. The
people who have job do not have any job security as several employees are cheated
and underpaid by their employers. This situation has therefore been one of the major
factors responsible for the increasing criminality and criminal activities among the
people especially the youth.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you define economic security?

3.7 Environment Security

The concept of environment has begun to dominate international discourse. The issue
of environmental pollutions has continued to attract attention among individuals, Non-
Governmental organizations (NGOs), nations as well as international organizations. It
is imperative, if we consider the adverse effects that environmental hazards may have
on the people, for government and the people to ensure the security of their
environment. Conceptually, environmental security can be described as:

...ability of a nation or a society to withstand environmental asset scarcity,

environmental risks or adverse changes, or environment-related tensions or conflicts
(://www.pacinst.org/reports/environment_and_security/env_security_and_climate_ch
ange.pdf).

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...the total surrounding or external conditions within which an organism or a

community exists (Adeboyejo, 1994: 74).

Within the world body (the United Nations), efforts are being made through its
(relevant) agency – the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), to monitor
environmental issues, and make reports and plants for such issues and make reports
and plans for such issues and to act and promote legal instruments on the environment.
If we want to talk about environmental security, our focus shall be on the atmosphere,
lithosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere. People now talk about issues like damage in
ozone layer, climate change, water pollution and environmental degradation (to
mention a few). Environment has great impact on the general wellbeing of the people,
and that is the reason why increasing interest of state and non-state actors on
environmental protection and security has become evident. The growing interest since
1980s on environmental security has also attracted a number of international
agreements aimed at protecting the environment.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is environmental security?

4.0 CONCLUSION

So far, in the last three units including this one, we have explored several forms of
security. One revelation about these forms of security is that security as a whole
usually involves a network of activities and actions geared towards hazard mitigation,
crime prevention and detection, threat mitigation and elimination, risk reduction and
management among other objectives. It is, therefore, imperative on security
practitioners to build synergy through different functions they perform by working
collaboratively in the development of effective security system and management.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we drew our attention to other forms of security not previously discussed.
And we began with the meaning of infrastructure security, and later went ahead to
describe seaport security, and subsequently we explained airport security and its
elements. Also, we explained food security, health security, economic security and last
but not the least was environmental security.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Describe any five of the following forms of security:

Infrastructure Security
Seaport Security
Airport Security
Food security

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Health Security
Economic Security
Environment Security

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Adeboyejo, Thompson A. (1994) “Man’s Physical Environment System”, in S.K.

Balogun (ed).) Basic Concepts in Society, Government and Economy, Ibadan: Sam
Bookman Ltd

Greenberg, M. D., et al. (2006). Maritime Terrorism: Risk and Liability. Santa
Monica: RAND Corporation. Cited on ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki /port_ security.
Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/glossary/index _en .htmm. Retrieved on 30 August

2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_security. Retrieved on 25 August 2009

://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-10/iss-3/p22.html. Retrieved on 29 August, 2009.

://www.tsa.gov/travelers/highway/index.htm. Retrieved on 28 August

://www.pacinst.org/reports/environment_and_security/env_security_and_climate_cha
nge.pdf. Retrieved on 29 August, 2009.

.pbs.org/wgbh/rxforsurvival/glossary.html. Retrieved on 29 August, 2009.

.personal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/f.html. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

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UNIT 4

CIVIL SECURITY APPROACHES TO THREAT MITIGATION I

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Definition of Civil Security
3.2 Approaches to Civil Security: Introduction
3.3 Risk Education
3.31 Elements of Risk Education
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 Summary
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The issue of security has been very germane to the peaceful cohabitation of the people
in any given community or state. Security involves several activities that are
interconnected to the overall maintenance of law and order in any given society. The
ultimate goal of security is to protect the lives and property of the people, and this
corroborates the need to co-opt the public in the security activities and planning (see
://portalnano.ru/files/20). Therefore, it is a truism to extend the participation and
decision making processes to the people in order to achieve the overall objectives of
securitisation.

As a matter of fact civil security appears to be the ultimate solution to security

problems that may pervade any society. This is because with the desire to protect the
lives and property of the people against any natural and man-made attacks or threats, it
is more pertinent to build the capacity of the public to respond very appropriately and
effectively too, to hazardous events and security attacks such as organised crime,
terrorism among others, by engaging in actions that can reduce losses from such
hazard or security threats.

In this unit, we shall discuss the meaning of civil security as well as other areas of
discourse pertaining to it. Due to the limited space in this unit, we shall focus only on
risk education and its elements in examining the various approaches to civil security,
and we shall explain other approaches in the subsequent unit. Meanwhile, in the next
segment of this unit, we shall browse through the various tasks we shall undertake on
the subject, in the objectives of the unit. I have no doubt that you will find this unit
very interesting and intellectually stimulating.

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2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define civil security;

• Outline various approaches to civil security; and

• Explain risk education as an approach to civil security and its elements.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Civil Security

The experience of the world in recent time has shown that security has evolved to a
new stage where the importance of the civil population to security management cannot
be underestimated. There has been a shift in security threat discourse where major
attacks and threats come from non-state actors (see ://www.bmbf.de/en/6293.php). In
this case a handful of criminals may form a group to terrorise a whole nation thereby
posing greater threat to the general security atmosphere even beyond national
boundary. For instance, a group like Al-Qaeda network poses a greater security risk to
the most powerful nation on earth (the US) than any of its rival states like China and
Russia. If security involves initiatives, which must also “focus on the impact of natural
disasters or major accidents and the restriction of damage” (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.), it is imperative to adopt civil security framework, which will enhance the
capacity of the public to act on their own in the time of emergency and hazardous
events.

How do you describe civil security? Civil security can be described as any conscious
measures taken by stakeholders aimed at reducing vulnerability to the security of the
public by enhancing the capacity of individuals to mitigate danger and security threats,
as well as recovering from any form of security attacks whether those that are natural
(like hurricane, tornadoes, earth quake, tsunami etc), or considered to be manmade
(arson, robbery, blackmail, etc). Civil security is so crucial because it “provides an
outlet for individual participation in and contribution to homeland security” (Dory,
2003b). The growing relevance of involving civil population in security practice is
very evident in the contemporary world. This view is supported by President John F.
Kennedy several decades ago, at the height of nuclear threat episode between the East
led by the defunct Soviet Union and the West bloc led by the United States, according
to him:

To recognize the possibilities of nuclear war in the missile age, without our citizens
knowing what they should do and where they should go if bombs begin to fall, would
be a failure of responsibility (Kennedy, 1961).

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Considering the foregoing, the essence of civil security is to redefine the traditional
security system and present a new paradigm in security discourse such that attention is
now geared towards building the capacity of the civilians in responding to hazards and
security threats. The need to educate the masses on various aspects of security cannot
be over-emphasized because the goal of security will be defeated if the main
stakeholders (the people) remain vulnerable to attacks and helpless in taking care of
themselves in the event of security threat.

Shalamanov et al. (2005) present a different perspectives to the definition of civil

security and according to them civil security can include the following:

(a) Better interdepartmental coordination. If properly implemented, the

broad interpretation of the Law on Crisis Management will lead to the
establishment of a civil security system that is legally described as National
System for Crisis Response. In this respect, the role of the National Crisis
Management Center is crucial.

(b) Active civil society participation in the provision of security. The active
civil participation is the connecting link between “traditional” civil protection
and civil security. Nowadays security cannot be provided by the state itself. The
engagement of the civil society becomes indispensable. Civil society structures,
NGOs, voluntary local formations as well as business organizations and the
scientific community are the potential resource for the establishment of a third
pillar of the security sector;

(c) Good governance and effective democratic civil control over the security
sector. Participation is the best opportunity for proactive control;

(d) New strategic culture of civil society. The establishment of a civil security
element of the security sector is a challenge to the maturity of civil society. The
ability of civil society to fill in the vacuum left by the diminishing traditional
state fast before organized crime is vital.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe the concept of civil security?

3.2 Approaches to Civil Security:

In this segment, we shall simply list the four basic approaches to civil security to make
judicious use of space. These approaches shall be extensively discussed subsequently.
So, what are these approaches? They include the following:

a) Risk education;
b) Preparedness;
c) (Public) Warning; and

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d) Protective Actions

Civil security involves a network of activities, it demands connecting various

approaches that are brought into bear at different levels of security management. In
security planning and management, we are often familiar with two environments: pre-
incident (pre-hazard or attack) and throughout incident (post hazard and attack). The
through incident environment features various activities of intervention during the
incident of security threat and its aftermath, please see figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1 Integrated Civil Security Approaches

Source: Dory, A.J. (2003a). Civil Security: Americans and the Challenges of
Homeland Security. Washington DC: CSIS.

Civil security involves drawing a framework that presents us with diverse strategic
initiatives and activities that enable the public to have adequate knowledge of
incidence of risk through the process of risk education in the pre incident stage. The
security sector mostly performs this function by communicating (risk communication)
with the public through several forums and platforms like the web, television, radio,
newsletter, among others.

And having educated on risks that underlie potential security threats or attacks, people
can then be prepared against such threats. In a situation whereby a security threat
occurs, the security sector communicates the public to issue warnings by alerting or
notifying them of the occurrence of a hazard, and the steps they should take to forestall
the disaster that may result in huge loss of lives and property.

Also, in a situation whereby a hazard or attack occurs, the security sector

communicates the public, warning them through alert and notification about the
security threat happening or about to occur. Thereafter, the public needs to be given

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additional (professional) advice on steps to take to reduce losses and or be assisted

with further necessary protective actions, to reduce the effect of the attack or hazard
on the wellbeing of the public. For instance, if there is an outbreak of bird flu in a
community, the government may reasonably decide to quarantine or restrict
everybody coming from such a community to another community until essential
medical tests have been performed on the affected people to know their health status
before allowing them into another community. This protective action is taken to
reduce the spread of the disease, which is considered capable of undermining the
health security of the public. In the next, we shall begin our analytical task of the
various approaches to civil security by discussing risk education and its elements.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

List various approaches to civil security.

3.3 Risk education

From time immemorial, risk has been part of human life. Risk that pervaded the
Hobessian state of nature resulting from insecurity embedded in that situation where
no Sovereign power existed to regulate the affairs of men mandated the people to
surrender their individual sovereign rights to a central Sovereign authority
(government). Meanwhile, that contractual agreement brought unto people another
risk- the possibility of the emergent Sovereign power to fail in meeting the
expectations of the people or its failure to perform well its functions or involve in
oppressive and repressive actions against the people as argued by J.J. Rousseau.

The foregoing is illuminated by Holton (2004) who argues that there are two issues
that determine the existence of risk. The first is uncertainty about the potential
outcomes from an experiment. The second issue focuses on how materials are the
outcomes in providing utility. Thomas Hobbes contended people’s resolve to take the
risk of surrendering their sovereign power to a central Sovereign entity because of the
brutish and nasty nature of the Hobessian state. Though, uncertain of whether their
lots would be better or not under the new arrangement due to perpetual absence of
security of lives and property that existed prior to convocation of sovereign political
authority in a state, they still found it a good idea to concede their individual
sovereignty to a central authority, which they believed could provide them safety and
guarantee their wellbeing.

Here, despite the uncertainty, people still believed that it was better to take a risk in
convocation of new Sovereign power than perpetuating themselves in the risk that
triggered the lawlessness and disorder that characterised the state of nature as
presented by Hobbes. The anticipation of the people was that the potential outcomes
would provide utility. This can be said to mean that people hoped that their action
would help them to have a new situation through which their safety and security of
their lives and properties could be safeguarded by the Sovereign authority.

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At this point, it is pertinent to look at some of the existing definitions of the term risk
for our better appreciation of the subject. Well, according to Niklas Luhmann, risk can
be defined as:
....the threat or probability that an action or event will adversely or beneficially affect
an organisation's ability to achieve its objectives (Luhmann, 1996).

Some of the other definitions of risk may include the following:

Risk is the probability that a hazard will turn into a disaster. Vulnerability and hazards
are not dangerous, taken separately. But if they come together, they become a risk or,
in other words, the probability that a disaster will happen
(://www.unisdr.org/eng/public_aware/world_camp/2004/booklet-eng /Pagina 9ing
.pdf).

Risk is a concept that denotes the precise probability of specific eventualities.

Technically, the notion of risk is independent from the notion of value and, as such,
eventualities may have both beneficial and adverse consequences. However, in general
usage the convention is to focus only on potential negative impact to some
characteristic of value that may arise from a future event (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid..).

From the above definitions, one thing that comes to our mind is that risk may be
summarised as uncertainty in the outcomes of events or actions. Risk colours every
aspect of human activities and relations because of the possibility that the outcomes
may be partially or absolutely at variance with our expectations. A good example is a
case of a retiree who due to the unpredictable economic climate of Nigeria and not
wanting to risk investing in just any business, decides to use his/her gratuity to build a
house with the aim of letting it out to make money. His/her desire is to use the money
got from the property to take care of his/her needs and for the security of life after
service, so that he/she can still have something to fall back on, even when pension is
not (promptly) paid.

Here, we may see ingenuity in this retiree’s idea considering the plights of pensioners
in Nigeria who are always maltreated by successive governments, but such a plan is
not also devoid of risk. Let us put it this way, after the retiree in question has let out the
house, one of the tenants through his/her carelessness left a candle on the table and in
the twinkle of an eye, the house is engulfed in flame. Then, the question that would
likely come to our minds is- how can the retiree get back his lost fortunes?

Nonetheless, this scenario underscores the importance of getting sufficient education

of risk in carrying out specific activities and undertaking a particular project or the
other. Mandating the careless tenant to build another house for the poor retiree may be
a fruitless effort especially when he/she does not have the financial capacity to do
such. Even, if taken to court, little can be done to prevail on the careless tenant except
he/she has the means to provide the landlord-retiree another house. Above all, the

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action of the tenant may not be considered as arson because the damage was not
intentional but he/she may be penalised for being careless.

In the worse-case scenario, if the offender (the careless tenant) dies in the inferno,
what will be the fate of the landlord-retiree? You answer is as the same as mine- total
loss on the part of the landlord. Meanwhile, if there was adequate risk education on
the part of the landlord-retiree he/she would have taken steps to avoid such a loss and
the steps may include insuring the property and equipping the house with fire-
fighting facilities like fire extinguisher. Availability of fire-fighting equipments will
help in mitigating or reducing the losses resulting from the incident of inferno. There
is no doubt that educating people on risk is very essential in providing them
opportunities for safety in their businesses, activities, and overall security of their
lives and property.

Risk education and communication is a fundamental element of civil security. It is the

foundation of civil security (Dory, 2003a: vi). As you may be aware, risk adorns every
aspect of the life of man. Man and woman go into a relationship but only hope that
things will work out fine for them. In some situations, courtship may lead to marriage
while among some lovers the relationships will fail due to one reason or the other.
Even, where the relationship leads to marriage, some unexpected circumstances may
come up, which can have adverse effect on the marriage.

For instance, in the beginning a couple may love each other very dearly but if the
marriage is not blessed with babies, the couple may decide to search for solutions,
and in the process, the security of the marriage may be threatened if no legitimate
solutions seem to work in their favour. Thereafter, arguments and counter-arguments
as well as accusations and counter-accusations may ensue that may lead to the
eventual collapse of the marriage. This, no doubt, shows the existence of risk in the
relationship not only between a man and woman but among the people in general.
According to Weyman and Shearn (2004: 6), the objectives of risk education can be
summarised into three, which include the following:

(a) Awareness raising - strategies designed to disseminate knowledge and

understanding of sources of harm;

(b) Transferable skills - progressive approaches that aim to develop transferable

life skills (relating to the risk assessment and control); and

(c) Behaviour modification - approaches that aim to reduce risk taking

behaviour.

We do certain things sometimes without having absolute control over their outcomes,
yet we still take the risk in undertaking them. Even, where we have absolute control
over the events, it is possible for some things to crop-up to change the course of the
events, which may make the outcomes of such events short of our expectations.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

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How will you describe risk education as an approach to civil

security? 3.31 Elements of Risk Education

a) Development of unclassified national intelligence : There is need for

government at the center to create mechanisms aimed at developing unclassified
national intelligence estimate on various threats to security i.e banditry, all
forms of terrorism, ethno-religious violence, to mention a few. It is very
ridiculous that various intelligence agencies have continued to play down the
inherent risk involved in the way the political leadership in Nigeria continually
plunders the resources of the nation with impunity. If the political office holders
are educated on the risks such as political turbulence, increasing criminality,
violence, and other negativities, that the nation is exposed to, due to the growing
incidence of corruption that pervades Nigeria, many of these government
officials may have a rethink to continue to steal public funds.

The fact is that they themselves as culprits will also be victims of their own
actions. A good example is the problem of incessant political assassination
where some political elites contract some of those (masses) they oppress to kill
their fellow political actors for one political objective or the other. This
development corroborates the adage of the Yoruba people of south-west
Nigeria, which says that ‘a bird perches on the rope, the rope is unsteady while
the bird itself that is on the rope not at ease’.

It is important for intelligence agencies to educate the political actors on the

implications of their policies especially the risk such policies may pose to the
overall security of the nation. For instance, in the Niger Delta, many of the
political elites in and outside the region have been accused of using the
vulnerable youths as party thugs armed with weapons like guns, cutlasses
among others, to win elections and in the aftermath of elections, these youths
were abandoned by their former patrons with no efforts by these callous
politicians to retrieve the weapons from thugs.

Unfortunately, the youth, after being abandoned by their former masters

became frustrated, and began to devise means for themselves to survive
especially when they have understood the dynamics of the economics of
violence. So, many of them became armed robbers, kidnappers, saboteurs, to
mention a few. The elites and their relations have now become the main targets
of kidnappers, a situation, which speaks volume of the risk inherent in the
attitudes of maladministration and corruption;

b) Scenario-building in risk education: Enough efforts should be made in building

scenarios to educate the public on risk, so that they can understand the nature
and degree of possible security threats. It is very unfortunate, in Nigeria, despite
the existence of various regulatory, security and intelligence agencies,

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the citizens are continually exposed to different avoidable threats. For instance,
the damage done by ‘wonder banks’ could have been prevented if the Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was alive to its responsibility not only to prevent such
institutions but also to provide adequate education to the public on the risk
involved in transacting business with such fraudulent institutions.

Sadly, it took the CBN more than two years of the existence of such financial
institutions before it could advise the public on the inherent danger in
transacting any business with those institutions. It is more pathetic that those
institutions were registered by the government without considering the risks
underlying their operations. The public intelligence officials that is supposed to
provide guidance to government and the public on how the activities of these
wonder banks posed a great risk to the security of the public failed in
discharging its duties in this respect. It is laughable that many government
officers were also found patronizing those financial institutions due to their
thirst for making quick money;

c) Interactiveness in risk education : It is imperative to make risk education

interactive, so that the process will be participatory. In this case, the government
should provide various fora through which individuals and respective security
agencies can meet to discuss and brain-storm as well as to enlighten one another
on different threats and appreciate the risks such threats pose to security
management of their communities. These fora may include town halls, radio or
television programmes and web casts, to mention a few. The importance of
creating interactive platforms in risk education cannot be over-emphasized. For
instance the Nigeria Police has adopted the strategy of bridging the gap between
her and the public through its community relations;

Gladly, police officers now have meetings with the people in communities,
especially to educate the masses on the risks involved in their attitudes to
security and to assist them understand possible threats to security of the
community at large. For instance, in many communities, people are ignorant
of the risk of mounting high fence in their houses for security reason. For
instance, if someone is being robbed, how can the passers-by know that he/she
is in distress? Meanwhile, if it is a low fence, some of the neighbours may
detect and call the Police for rescue. The same ignorance applies to the
neighbourhoods blanketed by fortified gates, which denies the security rescue
teams i.e. Police to gain easy access in situation(s) of distress;

d) Massification of Risk education: Much emphasis should be placed on educating

the general public on security risks. Risk education should be incorporated into
the school curriculum from primary level to tertiary level. It should be taught in
places of worship, community associations, work places, professional
organizations among others; and

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e) Active Participation of individuals in risk education : individuals should

endeavour to participate actively in the process of risk education such as
attending police-community meetings, seeking for information from relevant
security agencies whenever the need arises, and exploring other interactive
forums like asking questions on any aspect of security that you desire to have
knowledge of by participating on security talk show especially when relevant
security experts are invited to the radio or television programme. It is worthy to
note that, not every security information can be shared with the public.

It is, therefore, incumbent on the concerned security officers either public or

private to enlighten the public on the importance of keeping such information
secret. Take for instance, if a Police chief is on a radio programme, and a caller
seeks to inquire from him/her on the number of ammunitions each Police
man/officer on patrol can have. Here, it will be highly unethical for such a
Police chief to disclose such information because of its capability to
undermining the overall operation of the Police in security management.

However, an experienced security officer will educate the caller and general
public on the risk in disclosing such information not only to the security of the
Police personnel but also the general public. Responding creatively to questions
by security officers will allow security agencies to enjoy increasing confidence
from the public, which will aid the active participation of the public in security
management.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is Risk Education?

Explain any four elements of risk education?

4.0 CONCLUSION

Civil security can be described as any conscious measures, taken by stakeholders with
the aim of reducing and addressing vulnerability to their security. It helps to educate
the people on risks pertaining to any potential security threats or hazards and enhance
their capacity to prepare against any potential threats. This will afford them
opportunity to respond effectively on their own without waiting for intervention from
emergency or law-enforcement agents, as a way to reduce losses or the impact of the
attack or hazard on their lives or/and property.

There is no doubt that modern securitisation departs gradually from the traditional
approach of security that entirely alienated the civil society or civilians to play active
roles in security planning and management. This instructs the concept of community
policing that has been articulated by the police authorities in the country but in
practice, Nigeria still has a long way to go compared to European countries. One of the
reasons is poor implementation of the programme, and another factor responsible for
the poor credential of community policing in the country can be blamed on the

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negative perception people still have towards the police resulting from the nefarious
activities of most of its personnel and lack of regard for the public. Against this
background, the Nigeria police needs to undergo serious reforms to show to the world
that it is not only effective but also independent in discharging its functions. The law-
enforcement agents have been continuously of being an instrument in the hands of
some politicians to rig elections and repress the public that it is supposed to serve.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, we began our academic journey by examining the meaning of civil security
by looking at some of the existing definition of the concept. Though, the concept is
new in security studies and practice but a more scholars are gradually attracted to
conduct research on this new concept of basic security. We continued our study by
highlighting various approaches to civil security. Thereafter, we beamed our
searchlight on the meaning of risk education as one of the basic approaches to civil
security, and we completed our task in this unit by discussing various elements of risk
education. I hope you have found this lesson very interesting and thought-provoking
too. In the unit, we shall discuss other three approaches to civil security. Please, never
hesitate to consult your tutorial facilitator, if any aspect of this study is not clear to you
or reach your course coordinator to link you up with the writer of this instructional
material only if it is very necessary. Good luck.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSINGMENT

a) What do you understand by the term civil security?

b) Write a short note on the meaning of risk education, and any three of its
elements.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Dory, A.J. (2003a). Civil Security: Americans and the Challenges of Homeland
Security. Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies (September).

Dory, A.J (2003b). American Security: the US Public and Homeland Security. The
Washington Quarterly, 27(1): 37-52.

Holton, G.A. (2004). Defining Risk. Financial Analysts Journal. 60 (6): 19-25.

Kennedy, J.F. (1961). Radio and Television Report to the American People on the
Berlin Crisis. Washington, D.C. (July 25). Also available on .cs.umb.edu/jfk
library/jfk_berlin_crisis_speech.html. Retrieved on 2 October, 2003.

Luhmann, N. (1996). Modern Society Shocked by its Risks. University of Hong-kong:

Department of Sociology (Occasional Papers 17).

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Shalamanov, V., Hadjitodorov, S., Tagarev, T., Avramov, S., Stoyanov, V.,
Geneshky, P., & Pavlov, N. (2005). In: Civil Security: Architectural Approach in
Emergency Management Transformation. Sofia: ProCon Ltd/ Information & Security:
An International Journal, 17: 75-101.

Weyman, A. & Shearn, P. (2004). Teaching Practice in Risk Education for 5-16 Years
olds. Sheffield: Health and Safety Laboratory: Report Number HSL/2005/23.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 19 August

2009. ://portalnano.ru/files/20. Retrieved on 10 August 2009.

://www.bmbf.de/en/6293.php. Retrieved on 19 August 2009.

://www.unisdr.org/eng/public_aware/world_camp/2004/booklet-eng /Pagina 9ing .pdf.

Retrieved on 19 August 2009.

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UNIT 5

CIVIL SECURITY APPROACHES TO THREAT MITIGATION II

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Preparedness
3.2 Public Warning
3.3 Protective Actions
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m ma r y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

In the last unit, we began our task on the meaning and aspects of civil security. The
rationale behind invocation of the concept of civil security underscores the need to
have the public in playing complementary roles not in security planning but also in the
management of security. In as much as the public forms the nucleus of the
stakeholding in the business of security, they should be involved in security activities
so that they can care for themselves in the event of security attack. In this unit, we shall
complete our task on the subject- civil security and its aspects. We have previously
treated the meaning and one of the aspects (risk education) of civil security. Now, we
shall discuss the remaining three aspects not earlier discussed.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Explain other three aspects of civil security not treated in the last unit;

• Discuss the meaning and elements of preparedness;

• Examine the meaning and elements of public warnings; and

• Describe protective actions and its elements.

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3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Preparedness

Preparedness is another key element or component of civil security. Sometimes, one

may be sceptical in supporting the view that states that for any community to prevent
violence (war), it is incumbent on it to always prepare for violence (war). Here, the
term violence or war is used to denote any (potential) threats or attacks from the
enemies such as armed robbers, kidnappers, saboteurs, terrorists, election riggers,
computer hackers, assassins, militants, fraudsters, fire outbreak and accidents, among
others.

It is always important to prepare oneself against the unexpected because it will

enhance one’s capacity to prevent such security threat to occur, and in a situation of its
occurrence, the rate of damage will be minimal. For instance, Nigeria’s Federal Road
Safety Corps usually campaigns for compulsory use of seat belt in order to reduce the
fatality of accidents on our roads.

Again, some new automobiles now come with air bags to provide safety for the
occupants of the vehicle in a situation of serious accident but the vehicles equipped
with air bags still have seat belts because the manufacturers feel that the air bag
system may fail to activate, and the seat belts can therefore provide a security back-up
for the occupants of the vehicle when a serious accident occurs. The foregoing
scenario demonstrates how important it is, to always prepare oneself against any
hazardous situation. Now, what is preparedness? According to Amanda Dory,
preparedness can be described as:

...a method by which awareness and understanding (supported by risk education) can
be translated into action...,and it can include a range of activities: developing
contingency plans (e.g. communications, evacuation, shelter-in-place0, practicing
contingency plans, participating in education and awareness activities, and stockpiling
emergency supplies (Dory, 2003: 35).

Preparedness can also be described as:

...a comprehensive plan (that) provides a range of scenarios with clearly defined,
detailed processes and responsibilities. A critical component of a business continuity
plan is a secure access plan to ensure remote or isolated emergency workers can
continue working during and after a disaster (://www.juniper.net/us/en/solutions/
public-sector/state-local-government/emergency-preparedness).

Conducting a surgical analysis on the foregoing definition, you may agree that
preparedness is very fundamental to safety and security management. We cannot but
agree with the Boy Scout in their motto, which is ‘always be prepared’. Thus,
preparedness enables the public to take active roles in risk management and effective
participation in the process of security management. Preparedness helps security

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agencies and the public, if not to absolutely prevent attacks but at least to reduce the
fear and anxiety associated with security threats. It can assist in reducing the fatality
rate in the consequences of any security threat in physical, psychological and economic
terms (see Dory, 2003: 35).

In addition, preparedness enables individuals to respond creatively to any situation of

security attack, even without seeking for external intervention. Here, prepared
individuals engage in activities to protect themselves and react very effectively to
security threats by taking good control of the situation. This will limit the burden of
security intervention by relevant government agencies. For instance, in some
communities, people watch the activities of one another very closely and whenever
any member is suspected of constituting a security threat to the whole people, the
people act swiftly by asking the fellow to vacate the place or he will be handed-over
to the police.

In situation of an armed robbery attack, the people jointly put-up a strong resistance
against the attackers whether or not the attackers aim at a particular target. One of the
ways to achieve this, is to adorn the community with street lights, and where or when
there is no electricity supply from the energy agency (PHCN), some of the people can
volunteer to use their generating sets to power those street lights unilaterally or on
rotational basis.

Also, when the presence of strangers is noticed, people need to humbly accost them to
know their mission. Caution should be exercised in doing this, they should make sure
the strangers are not equipped with dangerous weapons before approaching them. In a
situation where they are not sure, they should alert the Police promptly.

In furtherance of our understanding of this subject, let us discuss various elements of

preparedness. Before we do that let us have a five minute break. Break over!

Elements of Preparedness

a) Adoption of ‘dual use’ approach: The state and local governments due to
nearness or proximity to people should endeavour to build the capacity of the
security sector and public not only in the areas that concern man-made attacks
(i.e. terrorism, armed robbery, computer virus attack, computing system
hacking, sabotage, corruption, spills, accidents etc) but also those that relate to
threats that are natural such as hurricane, flooding, tornadoes, drought, heart-
quake among others.

It is very unfortunate that in Nigeria, neither the security sector nor the civil
public is adequately trained to respond promptly and effectively to incidence of
terrorism within and without. One of the factors to this strategic deficiency can
be traced to the lackadaisical and inept nature of various intelligence agencies.
The moribund nature of our security infrastructure is another factor. Most
countries in Europe have closed circuit Televisions (CCTVs) and surveillance

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cameras installed in every nooke and cranny of their homelands not only to
detect (perpetrators of) crime but also to prevent and/or reduce criminal
activities. Even, if CCTVs are to be installed everywhere in Nigeria, the regular
power outages will render these security materials less functional.

On reacting to natural disasters, the public can be said to have no adequate

knowledge on how to manage the situation when natural disaster occurs. Even,
experience has shown that the Emergency Management agencies in the country
both at federal and state levels have appeared to be very incompetent and
impotent in disaster management. For instance the way the Ikeja Bomb blast
episode was handled rubbished the efficacy or simply the preparedness of the
security sector in Nigeria and Emergency Management Authorities in disaster
management.

This incident occurred on January 27, 2002 in Lagos where “several bombs
exploded at the Ikeja Military Cantonment in which scores of thousands of
people died during the stampede that followed the explosion particularly
children that drowned in a chemically contaminated canal called Oke-Afa
Canal in Isolo, Ejigbo Local Government Area (LGA)”(Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.). Ridiculously, it took the intervention of foreign bomb
experts to detonate other bombs scattered all over the neighbourhoods;

b) Development of emergency preparedness materials: The government in

collaboration with the public and private sector(s) should establish local offices
throughout the nation where people can easily access emergency materials like
swimming jackets in case of flood, vaccines and medicals in situations like
disease outbreaks or epidemics, among others;

c) Development and maintenance of sophisticated emergency response

procedures, training and working tools for emergency workers. For instance, in
ensuring the quick response of the Police to any distress call, the
communication systems and vehicles must be in good order. Also, it is
paramount to provide security personnel with bullet-proof vests and other
equipment that will make their job an easy one.

Thus, compared to police personnel in developed countries, men and officers of

the Nigeria Police are poorly equipped. This is instrumental to their poor state
of preparedness activities. It is most disturbing the way police stations are
being attacked in recent time. This situation shows lack of preparedness by the
police against any attack. If the police fails to protect itself, then, how can it
protect the public? This leads to the following point or condition;

d) Regular conduct of simulation: Simulation is very essential to preparedness. It

assists to present to the security personnel, the true reflection or state of their
preparedness to various security threats. There is no doubt, regular conduct of
simulation will enhance the capacity of security personnel to identify their

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areas of vulnerability, through which they can fathom ways to address it and
improve their preparedness; and

e) Educating the Public: Educating the public on security issues is a key element to
risk education, which will increase their awareness of possible security threats,
so that they can prepare themselves against the occurrence of security attacks.
And when a security attack happens, they can easily be on top of the situation
by refusing to be overwhelmed by fear and anxiety. For example, had it been
there had been public enlightenment on security threats and disaster
management, the casualty rate from the Ikeja Cantonment bomb blast episode,
would have been minimal. The fact is that people would have had enough
awareness to avoid panic in situations like that. Therefore, many of the victims
would not have jumped into the Canal for safety.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you define preparedness?

Explain the elements of preparedness.

3.2 Public Warning

The importance of prompt and effective public warnings in responding to natural

and/or man-made disasters or security threats cannot be over-emphasized. The truth of
the matter is that public warnings assist the public to take actions that can save lives,
reduce fatality and enhance their recovery capacity. According to the Partnership for
Public Warning in its report titled “Developing a Unified All-Hazard Public Warning
System”, , warning can be described as a ‘process’ that:

...consists of people with information communicating with people at risk, and others
such as emergency responders, in advance of or during a hazardous event, with the
intent that those at risk will take appropriate action to reduce casualties and losses.
The goal of warning is to prevent hazards from becoming disasters. The success of a
warning is measured by what actions people take (Partnership for Public Warning
(2002: 3).

Warning can also be described as:

a communication and acknowledgment of dangers implicit in a wide spectrum of

activities by potential opponents ranging from routine defense measures to substantial
increases in readiness and force preparedness and to acts of terrorism or political,
economic, or military provocation ( Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms
2005.).

...something that serves to warn, give notice, or caution (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.).

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...admonition, notice, or pointing out an existing or potential danger, especially to one

who would otherwise would not be aware of it (Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.).

Public warnings involve activities designed to alert the public on the impending
danger. The foreign ministries of several countries take it as a matter of priority to
alert their citizens of the inherent danger of travelling to some countries through the
media and internet. Even, if some of the citizens will still wish to travel to the
countries considered as unsafe, the alert will assist them to prepare themselves, and
plot ways to mitigate the effect of fear and anxiety and building their capacity to
responding to security attacks or threats. This can at least help them reduce losses in
the event of experiencing attack.

During a hazardous event, people can be notified with the aim of alleviating or
forestalling further losses. This is done to enable people to take proper actions to
mitigate the risk that underlies a security threat. For instance, in a situation of fire-
outbreak in a business building, the people in the building are to be notified of the
incident, and they should be advised not to panic. Thereafter, they should be guided on
how to exit the building. The basis of public warnings is to prevent hazards from
leading to disasters. You should know that disaster involves huge loss of lives and
property, which should be avoided as much as possible. What determines the success
of any warning initiative are promptness of the intervention and appropriate actions. If
any public warning lacks any of these two elements, it will be difficult for such
warning to attain the desired goals.

Elements of Public Warning

a) Data collection, analysis, and decision making to issue a warning: Evidence of a

hazard must be developed through data collection, and the collected data must
be analysed. After the analysis, we can therefore take a decision in issuing a
warning. The procedure is very necessary to observe in order to avoid raising an
unnecessary and false alarm that may affect people’s response to future
warnings. For instance, if the farmers in a particular settlement are warned of
the impending drought in a particular year, many of these farmers may relocate
to another area for cultivation or not to engage in farming activities at all during
that period. If it is found at the end of the day that a situation of drought never
occurs against the earlier public warning, it will be difficult to convince the
affected people of an impending security threat in future warnings. In a situation
like this, people will disregard the warnings until they begin to experience the
hazards, and if no appropriate measures of intervention are taken, such hazards
like earthquake may lead to disasters resulting in huge loss of lives and
property, where the effect of the hazards could have been minimized if there
had been adequate preparedness by the victims in the first instance (see Mileti
& Sorensen, 1990).

b) Framing a warning: it is also important to identify the right words and digitally
coded warning message that involve the application of standards for

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terminology but also by putting into consideration the most effective ways to
communicate warnings to the target audience. If a warning is meant to be
communicated to civilians, it is appropriate to avoid using codes but to
communicate in the language format that they will understand.

This may be difficult in a multi-lingual society like Nigeria where there are
several ethnic groups with different languages. It is more problematic because it
is not everybody that understands the official language (English), and it will be
necessary to translate the warnings into the local languages of the target
population. Where some people can neither understand English nor any of the
translated languages, it will be up to the people who understand to pass the
information to the affected people;
c) Use of Secure Sources: Getting inputs from dependable and authorised sources
is very germane to public warning apparatus. These authorised sources help not
only in the collection of objects of warning but they also assist in delivering
warning to various targets;

d) Transmission of warnings: Transmission of warnings should be handled very

professionally, and it demands the use of a wide variety of distribution systems
such as telephone, internet and public address system, to mention a few. The
arrival of GSM in Nigeria has been helpful in providing warnings to the public
in case of any security threat or hazard. For instance, if bank robbery is taking
place in a particular location, one can easily be alerted through a voice call or
short messages (SMS) of the risk of being in that location at that particular time
because of the possibility to be hit by bullet. Meanwhile, one great obstacle to
the use of most of the warning facilities is the erratic nature of power supply in
Nigeria; and

e) Human Attitude to warnings: it is one thing to issue warnings to people against

a security threat or hazard but it is another case entirely for the people to whom
the warnings are issued, to respond appropriately and timely to the warnings.
Undoubtedly, warning has no relevance or importance if people fail to ‘hear and
respond’ ( Dory, 2003: 55). For instance, in many urban centres in Nigeria,
people often turn deaf ears to government warnings to vacate buildings
considered to be a threat to the security of the occupants because of the risk
involved in staying there. The reason may be due to high cost of securing
another accommodation. Therefore, it is important on the part of government to
provide cheaper accommodation for the people through the development of low
cost housing scheme as well as drastic reduction in the cost of building
materials.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Briefly describe public warning and its elements.

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2.3 Protective Actions

Protective actions are the most critical component as well as the climax of the civil
security agenda. It involves the steps, which the public can take to alleviate or reduce
the adverse effects that any natural or/and man-made security threats or hazards can
have on them. This component of civil security comes after exploring other three
elements of civil security including risk education and communication, preparedness
and public warning. In order to have a greater knowledge of the subject matter, it is
pertinent at this juncture to explain its fundamental elements.

Elements of Protective Actions

a) Evacuation: This is usually a popular practice in protective action. Apart from

natural and man-made threats that are premeditated such as assassination, arson
among others, there are other man-made threats that are accidental. Accidents
occur almost on daily basis. On the roads, accidents do occur sometimes
through carelessness or recklessness as the case may be or human error. For
instance, some people are found in the habits of over-speeding when driving
despite the regular campaign by the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), calling
on road users to avoid reckless driving and over-speeding. In industries,
accidents do occur ranging from fire-outbreak, suffocation, spilling of harmful
chemicals, to mention a few. Many industrial workers have had their hands
amputated by machines resulting from human error or fatigue.

The industrial inferno episode that occurred in a factory located in Ikorodu,

Lagos state still lingers in the memory of many Nigerians especially the
families, friends and close relations of the victims where the fire-outbreak
claimed the lives of the workers working in the factory. The death toll would
have been reduced if there was prompt or timely evacuation response, and it
was most pathetic that the victims were unable to escape because the
management allegedly locked them up in the factory, meaning there was no exit
point for safety.

Sadly, that phenomenon speaks volume of the state of enslavement that most
Nigerian employees are subjected to by their ‘masters’. In order to forestall the
repeat of such an incident, it is important for the government to criminalise all
dehumanising policies of employers or managements against their staff or
employees, and adequate punishment should be meted on erring employers
including life imprisonment.

Again, the issue of terrorism should be given priority attention by Nigerian

government. If incidence of terrorism is less evident or not existing at all in the
country now it does not depict that Nigeria is immune to terrorist attacks
considering the presence of anarchist ethno-religious groups in the country. No
one could believe that Kenya and Tanzania could become targets of attack by

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terrorists until it happened. Here, the terrorists planted bombs at the US

embassies in those two countries, which later exploded killing and injuring
hundreds of people most of whom were Africans. Resulting from those
bombing incidents, one cannot say that since Nigeria is not a party to the
Middle-ease crisis, so it cannot be a target of Arab insurgents. Therefore, it is
very important for the security sector to develop a framework through which
they can respond promptly and adequately with appropriate evacuation actions
in the event of a terrorist attack;

b) Sheltering or Shelter-in-Place: This element of protective action can be

described as “practice of remaining indoors in an office, home, school or other
structure; or if outside, taking refuge in a nearby building in order to minimize
the effect of a hazard” (Dory, 2003: 68). Sheltering is a crucial protective
action that involves a variety of withdrawal actions.

It is easier to facilitate sheltering than evacuation because it does not take much
time to undertake, as few studies have shown that individuals would need “five
to ten minutes to take shelter after they receive the alert or notification to do so”
(Dory, 2003: 69). If the findings of Rogers et al. are anything to go by, any
expedient sheltering actions like sealing of windows, doors as well as other
opening should take between three and thirty-nine minutes but seventeen
minutes on the average to undertake (Rogers et al. cited in Dory, 2003: 70);

c) Quarantine and Shielding: Let us begin our conceptual illumination of the two
terms by defining quarantine. Quarantine can be simply defined as officially
imposed isolation or a way of separating an infected person from the rest of the
people with the aim of curbing the possibility of the spread of the disease due
to the efficacy of such ailment to pose a great security threat to public health.
For instance, it is incumbent on the government to quarantine a member of the
community infected with laser fever because of the virulent and infectious
nature of the disease;

d) Medical Counter Measures (MCM): These are also a crucial element of

protective actions. They usually involve a wide spectrum of medical
interventions and treatments that can be applied in the event of a hazard or
security attack. This element of protective actions is so vital because it provides
an opportunity to counter or mitigate the adverse effect that any security attack
may have on the people especially through availability of drugs and medical
treatment. For instance, in some of the homes in Nigeria, families have first-aid
equipment because they are aware that accident can happen anytime at home,
so that they can give first-aid treatment to persons in medical need before
taking him/her to the hospital for further treatment. This can help to reduce the
damage from any incident of security threat or hazard.
As a matter of protective engagement, government is expected to develop
Strategic National Stockpiles (SNS) for medical countermeasures. The SNS
should have been stocked with vaccines, antivirals, anti-toxins, anti-snake

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venom (particularly there is regular incidence of snake bites, notable in

northern Nigeria), anti-malaria drugs, among others. SNS should have centres
in all the local governments in the country for easy access by the public
especially in the event of epidemics like cholera, small-pox and polio; and

e) Individual Protective Equipment: As discussed above, some individuals

appreciate the need to pay priority attention to the issue concerning their safety
and security. For instance, in Nigeria, many people have died when the boats
they were travelling in capsized in the middle of the river or sea. Meanwhile,
many of the victim-passengers would have survived, if they had life-saving
jackets, which could still make them float on water till rescue would come to
them. Nevertheless, security and personal safety demands that it is important to
purchase necessary protective equipment for private use. It is very funny that
most road users in Nigeria drive their vehicles without having fire-extinguisher.
Some do not even have extra tyre(s).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Define protective actions, and write short note on any four of its elements.

4.0 CONCLUSION

It is popularly believed that the end product of every security activity is supposed to
be towards meeting the security needs of the people. It is pertinent to engage the
public to active roles in the security of their communities, not by carrying out jungle
justice against any crime suspect(s) but by providing useful assistance to the law
enforcement agents and emergency workers. More importantly, through active
participation, people learn ways to take care of themselves to reduce losses in the
occurrence of hazards or security attacks. People who are familiar with all the aspects
of civil security will always have capacity to handle any emergency or hazard more
creatively and effectively too than any persons who lack knowledge of civil security
activities. The good news is that there has been increasing participation of the public
in security decision-making process, as security is no more seen as the exclusive
function of the government. People now take more active roles in security planning
and management, and the springing-up of private security players is very evident as
well.

5 . 0 S U M M AR Y

In this unit, we studied various other approaches to civil security that we were unable
to treat in the last unit. We began our task by describing preparedness as an approach
to civil security. Thereafter, we examined the meaning of two other approaches
including public warning and protective actions as well as their different elements.
6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Write short notes on any of the following:

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1) Preparedness and any four of its elements

2) Public warning and any four of its elements.
3) Protective actions and any four of its components.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms (2005). US Department of Defense.

Dory, A.J. (2003). Civil Security: Americans and the Challenges of Homeland
Security. Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies (September).

Mileti, D. & Sorensen, J. (1990). Communication of Emergency Public Warnings. Oak

Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).

Partnership for Public Warning (2002). Developing a Unified All-Hazard Public

Warning System.

://allafrica.com/stories/200801280937.html. Retrieved on 18 August, 2009.

://dictionary.reference.com/browse/warning. Retrieved on 20 August 2009.

://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/warning.html. Retrieved on 20 August

2009.

://www.juniper.net/us/en/solutions/public-sector/state-local-government /emergency-
preparedness. Retrieved on 19 August 2009.

MODULE 4 MEASURES FOR THREAT MANAGEMENT

Unit 1: Risk: Meaning, Psychology & Analysis

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Unit 2: Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment

Unit 3: Simulation in Law Enforcement
Unit 4: Crime Analysis: Meaning and Importance to Crime Mitigation
Unit 5: Applying Data Mining and Automated Data Analysis for Crime Management

UNIT 1

RISK: MEANING, PSYCHOLOGY & ANALYSIS

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Risk
3.2 Risk Psychology
3.3 Risk Analysis
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mma r y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Risk features in every aspect of human relations as well as various fields of human
occupation. When we talk about risk, we need to know that it is a concept that is not
limited to any specific actions or professions. It is against this background that the Red
Cross (2000: 6-7) contends that:

Risk is defined differently by people in different situations. Risk, as perceived by the

politician or the disaster manager, is different from risk as understood by a scientist,
or by an insurance company salesman, or by a family living in an earthquake zone
(Red Cross, 2000: 6-7).

Despite conceptual differences and in as much as we cannot do away completely with,

it is pertinent to put in place measures and approaches through which we cannot only
analyse the risk but also assess it in identifying how much capacity we have as a
people or professionals to mitigate the effect of any hazardous events. Thus, the lower
our vulnerability to any particular hazards or threats the lesser the risk we may
encounter in case we experience such hazards or threats. In security profession, we
face quite a number of risks in the discharge of our duties.

For instance, one may be leading an anti-riot security team mandated to arrest any
breakdown of law and order that can result from a protest. At a point, one may find
himself/herself in a dilemma in his/her choice of instructions to be given to his/her
team in arresting the riot situation. It is incumbent on the security team leaders to

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exercise caution in issuing instructions because of the risk that may pervade every
action of his /her team in quelling the riot. This will therefore necessitate putting
available options to risk analysis before finally arriving at the actions that might be
considered most appropriate to arrest the situation. Sometimes, simply cajoling the
rioters may be the better option rather than application of force. In this unit, we shall
focus on the meaning of the concept of risk and other important issues of discourse
including risk psychology, risk analysis and risk evaluation.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define the term risk;

• Explain risk psychology; and

• Discuss risk analysis.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Risk

Risk can be simply described as any possible effect of a loss resulting from a
hazardous event or an attack, which “can be expressed as a product of the
consequences of an event and the probability of its occurrence” (Dory, 2003: 23).
Politically, there is national security risk in countries where ethnic flag or religious
association is used as a platform to secure employment and any other state resources.
As you may be aware, African countries including Rwanda, Burundi, Nigeria, Kenya
among others where the incidence of ethnicity has been very evident, have continued
to be on the brink of state collapse due to intermittent ethnic violence as nation-
building appears to be a scarce commodity.

The overall problems that may emerge from such ugly situations may include risks
that involve breakdown of law and order, civil strife, coups and countercoups,
continued underdevelopment, poverty and starvation, unemployment, and
maladministration, to mention a few. There is no doubt that the incidence of risk
becomes increasingly imminent as the consequences of an hazardous event are
increasingly experienced with (very) little or no capacity to mitigate such threat or
hazard or attack. A good example is the problem of growing rate of crime and
criminality among youth resulting from job-drought (massive unemployment) in
Nigeria. Undoubtedly, since the 1980s, Nigeria has been experiencing abominable
rate of violent crimes and intermittent ethno-religious violence, and the reasons for
these problems are not farfetched.

One major reason is economic quagmire occasioned by maladministration, paradox of

the monolithic oil economy as well as corruption. Other factors may include the

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endemic culture of patron-client network in our political life, religious fundamentalism,

ethnic and tribal intolerance, among others. Nevertheless, all these factors constitute a
great security risk to the survival of the Nigerian-state as the country often experiences
ethno-religious tension with high casualty rate and huge generation of internally
displaced persons. Also, the crime situation in the country, is worrisome as blood-
sucking phenomenon bank robbery, kidnapping and politically-motivated assassinations
has been most visible in the last ten years in Nigeria. How do you describe the term
risk? Although, there are several definitions of risk but we shall consider some of these
available definitions. Simply put, risk can be described as:

...the expected or anticipated losses (lives lost, people injured, property damaged, and
economic activities or livelihoods disrupted) from the impact of a given hazard on a
given element at risk over a specific period of time (Red Cross, 2000: 6).

...a concept that denotes the precise probability of specific eventualities. Technically,
the notion of risk is independent from the notion of value and, as such, eventualities
may have both beneficial and adverse consequences. However, in general usage the
convention is to focus only on potential negative impact to some characteristic of value
that may arise from a future event (Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.).

...a measure of the expected losses due to a hazardous event of a particular magnitude
occurring in a given area over a specific time period. Risk is a function of the
probability of particular occurrences and the losses each would cause (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.).

...the threat or probability that an action or event will adversely or beneficially affect
an organization's ability to achieve its objectives (Luhmann, 1996 on Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.)

...the probability that a hazard will turn into a disaster. Vulnerability and hazards are
not dangerous, taken separately. But if they come together, they become a risk
(://www.unisdr.org/eng/public_aware/world_camp/2004/booklet-eng/Pagina
9ing.pdf).

...the expected lives lost, persons injured, property damaged, economic activity
disrupted due to a particular hazard. Risk is the probability of a disaster occurring
and resulting in a particular level of loss (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 74).

Considering all the foregoing definitions of the term risk, we can summarise risk as
follows:

Risk = Consequences of events x Probability of Occurrence

Meanwhile in disaster management, risk involving the transition of hazard into a

disaster can be summarised as follows:

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Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

Again, in engineering, risk is defined simply as:

Risk = Probability of an Accident x losses per accident

As we have rightly argued in the introductory segment of this unit, there is no way we
can absolutely or totally do away with risk, even if we try to avoid risk, we are at the
same time, taking a risk in our choice of actions or decision to do away with the risk.
Therefore, we can only reduce or manage the incidence of risk in our relations,
businesses as well as actions. For instance, one may decide to fortify the security of
his/her house with very high fence to prevent burglars and any other attackers from
jumping into his/her compound through the fence but most times, people forget to
consider the risks that are involved in mounting high fences.

Apart from preventing passers-by to know if the occupants of such high fenced
buildings are under any attack by enemies like robbers, these high fences also
constitute a high security risk because of the potential danger they pose to the
occupants and even passers-by in case these fences collapse. As you may have heard,
quite a number of people have been killed or injured due to the collapse of high fences,
which fell on them. The simple risk arithmetic here is that the more fortified a security
fence, the more harm it can potentially cause, if it collapses on any person(s). This
brings us to the subject of risk probability.

Risk probability is often regarded as a way of quantifying the intensity of a risk in

generalised way. For instance, we can generalise that the probability of having youth
posing huge risk to the national security will be high where there is massive
unemployment. The fact is that due to adolescent anger, youth express more
aggression than the elderly (see Fuller & Forrest, 1990; Goldstone, 2002; Urdal, 2004).
Another example is that there is probability that 1 out of 200 smokers that take (on
average) 10 cigarettes a day will die of smoking-related ailment(s) like lung cancer.
We can also argue that in Nigeria, 10 out of 300 policemen on patrol without wearing
bullet-proof vests face the risk of being killed by armed robbers or any other malicious
attackers. There is no doubt that such gross risk estimates can be very helpful for
comparative reasons but it mostly covers-up huge “variations in the risk to individuals
or different regions” (UNDP & UNDRO, 1992: 74).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe risk?

3.2 Risk Psychology

With a view to find answer to why a number of persons usually derive satisfaction
from always engaging themselves in actions and activities that involve high risks,
psychologists have carried out a lot of research inquiries but virtually none of the

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existing studies has shown “...how a risk taking impulse arises from within or what
role is played by environmental factors, from upbringing to the culture at large”
(://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/199411/risk). It is always very surprising to
still see quite a number of technicians or engineers in Nigeria’s National Power Holden
Company working on faulty transformers without the use of any protective equipment
like hand-gloves despite the fact that many staff have died through electrocution
resulting from unnecessary risk taking by not wearing any protective materials like
gloves to mitigate electric hazard.

Similarly, many people buy new cars without having any consideration for insuring
their new vehicles against any incident of theft or accident despite the fact that they
know that vehicles are reported stolen almost on a daily basis in Nigeria. If you advise
such people to do the right things like having insurance policy for their vehicles, many
of them may say that it is not in their portion to experience such hazard or threats like
car theft or accident. The question is: whose portion is the experience of such hazards
or threats? With the growing false religious consciousness among the people, people
now take, with impunity, high risks without considering the consequences that such
risky behaviour may have on them. It is very sad the way some of the policemen in the
country risk their lives and career by engaging in sharp practices even when they are
not on official duty.

A good example was a bloody robbery incident that took place somewhere in Oyo
state in 2009 where it was alleged that the policemen that were escorting a bullion van
carrying money for an organisation were contracted unofficially and the security team
was ambushed by the armed robbers. At the end of the day, more than five policemen
were killed as the robbers carted the money away. It was very pathetic that the families
of those slain policemen would not be entitled to any financial benefits from the
government because the policemen were not on duty but doing their private (brisk)
business at the time, they were killed, so their families will be entitled to nothing.
Considering the foregoing instance, you will appreciate the high risk involved in
engaging in actions, as security practitioners, that expose us to danger. At this point, let
us quickly look at the definition of risk psychology. According to Amanda Dory, risk
psychology can be described as:

...the ways in which individuals process and respond to risk information based on
beliefs and emotions (Dory, 2003: 21).

...far more than a simple “death wish”. Studies now indicate that the inclination to
take high risks may be hard-wired into the brain, intimately linked to arousal and
pleasure mechanisms, and may offer such a thrill that it functions like an addiction
(://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/199411/risk).
...the branch of psychology studying perceptions, attitudes, decisions and behaviours
towards risk and how humans and animals take risks. (Error! Hyperlink reference not
valid.).

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Security attacks like kidnapping, terrorism, armed robbery among others are usually
psychological in nature owing to the fact that attackers often use instruments of
coercion and dangerous weapons to carry-out their operations. They tend to intimidate
their victims and attempt to do same to security practitioners or operatives especially
the police with a view to perpetrate their evils and acts of criminality without
hindrance, and these violent attacks can cause emotional problems like fear, anger and
sorrow among the victims and security practitioners.

The very violent nature of crime in recent time in Nigeria and elsewhere has become a
source of worry not only among the security practitioners or personnel but also among
the civilian population at large due to the palpable security risk that such criminal
activities constitute to the wellbeing of the general public. For instance, bank robbery
occurs more frequently in recent time than ever before with equalled level of fatality
and bloodshed. The frequent attack on members of the Nigeria Police has forced many
policemen to always be in mufti due to the risk associated with wearing of uniform in
the public.

The psychological problem emanating from the perpetual risk that dominates police
job today has created a culture of jingoism and aggression among policemen whereby
they often pull the triggers whenever and wherever some individual(s) is perceived as a
threat without trying to find out if the person(s) is actually a threat. In the process of
doing this, many innocent civilians have been killed by trigger-happy policemen in a
situation that has further damaged the image of the police among the general public.
Psychologically, in taking any risks, we need to consider the following by weighing
them against each other:

Elements of Risk Psychology

a) Gain vs. Loss: As security practitioners, we need to always consider weighing

how much gain we hope to achieve against the loss we may encounter in the
concerning action(s) we are about to take. As earlier narrated, the story of some
policemen who were killed by the robbers when they were making some brisk
business, had it been that these fellows weighed the benefits (gain) they would
derive from their illegal duties against the entitlement they would lose as well as
other potential losses like loss of lives, I strongly believe that some of them
would have decided not to partake in such illegal duties;

b) Cost vs. Benefit: Again, before we undertake any risky situation, we should
endeavour to measure the size of the cost of our actions against the benefits
that we hope to derive from such actions. For instance, Nigerian government
always fails to conduct cost and benefit analysis before embarking on
humanitarian interventions in Africa and elsewhere. Most times, we usually
consider our position as a leading nation on the continent and with a view to
tell the world that we are sisterly to the plight of other African nations, we
often spend huge amount of resources in human and material terms in
peacekeeping on the continent (cost).
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There is no doubt that Nigeria through its humanitarian activities is being

regarded as regional power (benefits) but these benefits don’t translate into
economic fortunes for the country as it continues to grapple with growing
unemployment, youth restiveness, incessant ethno-religious violence, violent
crimes, rituals, human trafficking among others. These problems are largely
economically-motivated and rather than using the larger part of the money
being wasted on humanitarian intervention to address its internal problems, the
government of Nigeria usually squanders it on peacekeeping.

It is no exaggeration that in the last two decades, Nigeria has spent more than
US$ 2b in human and material terms on peacekeeping in West Africa, and due
to its inability to effectively handle its internal crisis and endemic
underdevelopment, she is often seen as a laughing stock in the comity of
nations. There is a general saying that Nigeria imports what she has and exports
what she lacks, and it is most pathetic that most of the beneficiaries of
Nigeria’s philanthropy on the continent have appeared to be challenging its
relevance in international diplomacy. For instance, apart from mounting some
stringent conditions for the procurement of visa among Nigerians, South-
African government also fails to safeguard the security of lives and property of
Nigerian nationals staying in South-Africa despite the huge resources that
Nigeria committed to its anti-apartheid struggle. The country is also one of the
challengers of Nigeria for the permanent seat of the UN Security Council seat;

c) Threat vs. Opportunity : It is also important to ensure that adequate efforts are
made to measure those external conditions that can hamper our objectives
(threat) against those conditions, which can assist us in meeting our objectives
(opportunities). It is by doing this that we will be able to know the amount of
risk involved in our choice of actions. As security practitioners, some of us
who are in the military may be mandated to undergo a peace enforcement
exercise in a warring community.

Here, the opportunity we have may be our military preparedness and superior
skills and equipment (opportunities) that make us to have a strategic advantage
over the combatants (parties in dispute) but the truth of the matter is that having
little knowledge about the topography and terrain of the warring zone (threat)
may undermine our capacity to achieve our overall aim in the affected place
and the loss of battle (risk);

d) Risk vs. Reward: Before we adopt any actions as regards our business,
relationship and operations, we need to weigh the risk involved against the
reward we expect from such actions. For instance, some criminal security-men
or officers who are fond of renting out arms to armed robbers for monetary
reasons (reward) actually fail to realise that these robbers may decide to use the

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same weapons to kill them (the erring security men and officers) or their close
relations for any reasons which may include decision by the robber wishing not
to return the weapons to the lenders (risk); and

e) Short-term vs. Long-term : It is also germane to weigh the short-term risk

involved in our choice of actions against the potential long-term security risk
that such actions may portend before we conclude to taking any actions. For
instance, successive administrations in Nigeria have paid a lip-service to the
problems of environmental degradation and acute underdevelopment of the
Niger-Delta region of Nigeria. The struggle which began in a peaceful or less
violent way was largely mismanaged by the Nigerian governments especially
the military regimes in the last thirty years in the name of natural security
(short-term risk).

The government repression of the agitating groups of the region led to

militancy, kidnapping and hostage-taking, which have had spill- over effect on
the larger Nigerian society. The problem of kidnapping that was peculiar to the
Niger-Delta has become a great security risk to the whole country as virtually
all other regions are now grappling with the phenomenon of kidnapping and
economic terrorism, which the nation’s security sector has not been able to
address as more criminal persons are going into the perceived lucrative business
of kidnapping (long-term risk).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain risk psychology and its elements.

3.3 Risk analysis

Risk analysis is very fundamental to effective security management. In the conduct of

security business, security practitioners encounter a lot of risks not only from enemies’
attacks but also in our operations. And in as much as we cannot do away entirely with
risk, it is pertinent to perform risk analysis. Summarily, risk analysis can be divided
into two: quantitative or qualitative.

In quantitative risk analysis, we make effort to numerically determine the

probabilities of a range of hazardous events and the likely extent of the losses if a
particular event occurs. On the other hand, qualitative risk analysis does not actually
involve determining any numerical probabilities but it is a function of identifying “the
various threats, determining the extent of vulnerabilities and devising countermeasures
should an attack occur” (://searchmidmarketsecurity.techtarget.com/sDefinition
/0,,sid198_gci1182538,00.html). Operationally, there are various conceptual definitions
of the term risk analysis. The list of these definitions is long, and we cannot be wrong to
concur that risk analysis can be defined as a method that:

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...involves analyzing target software for vulnerabilities and characterizing their nature
and potential impact. Microsoft calls this “threat modelling.” Risk analysis attempts to
identify, prioritize, and plan appropriate mitigation for the risks facing a piece of
software ( ://buildsecurityin.us-cert.gov/daisy/bsi/590-BSI.html).

Risk analysis can also be described as

...the process of defining and analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses and
government agencies posed by potential natural and human-caused adverse events
(://searchmidmarketsecurity.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid198_gci1182538,00.htm
l).

A risk analysis involves identifying the most probable threats to an organization and
analyzing the related vulnerabilities of the organization to these threats (Wold &
Shriver, 1997 on ://www.drj.com/new2dr/w3_030.htm).

...the systematic method of identifying the nature and causes of risks to which an
organisation could be exposed and assessing the likely impact and probability of those
risks occurring (.etpconsulting.co.uk/Business%20Continuity/business-continui ty-
glossary.ht m)

.... the process of identifying security risks, determining their magnitude, and
identifying areas needing safeguards (.ee.oulu.fi/research/ouspg/sage/glossary)

Elements of Risk Analysis

a. Investigating the regularity of particular types of threats: It is part of risk

analytical tasks to conduct inquiry into the potential threats to security that are
often experienced against the one that occur less frequently within a specific
time and space. In Nigeria, it is often believed that towards festive periods
especially Christmas the incidence of robbery usually increases posing greater
risk to security of lives and property;

b. Classification of threats: There is also a need to classify the nature of threat in

our risk analysis. The potential threats or hazards can be categorised as natural
(flooding, seismic activity like earthquake, volcanic eruption, hurricane,
tornado, to mention a few), technical (computing system failure,
telecommunication failure, power failure, air conditioning failure, to mention a
few), and human threats (assassination, bomb threats, computer crime, traffic
homicide, chemical spill, industrial strike action, corruption, civil unrest,
kidnapping, to mention a few).

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c. Determining the level of predictability of the security threat: In identifying the

risk involved in the occurrence of a threat, we should determine this by seeking
to know how accurately we can predict its occurrence. Thus, the more accurate
prediction we can make as regards its experience, the more we may be able to
prepare towards mitigating it or reducing its impact on us, and consequently
reduce the risk such threat may portend to us or society;

d. Analysing the Speed of the onset of the threat or hazard: In analysing the risk
that characterises one particular threat/hazard or the other, we need to
determine the swiftness or speed of the threat when occurring. There are some
threats that happen very sudden, and these may include earthquake, floods,
tsunami, and volcanic eruptions, to mention a few. Some threats may also be
considered gradual in their occurrence, and these include drought, famine,
environmental degradation, pest infestation, to mention a few. Thus, the speed
at which the threat occurs determines its level if risk, as those threats that occur
suddenly pose more security risk than those with slow or gradual onset;

e. Determining the degree of warning or notification: As part of risk analysis

process, we should determine the amount of early warning and notification
given by the threat or hazard before it occurs. For instance, it is generally
believed that where there is lack of opportunity among the people to peacefully
seek redress, violent settlement of disputes will become imminent;

f. Estimating the length of time in the occurrence of threat or hazard: In analysing

the inherent risk of any threat, it is pertinent to do an estimate of the average
time or the interval the threat or hazard usually occurs. By doing this, we will
be able to determine the amount of risk that each threat poses to the security of
a people or community;

g. Impact Analysis: In analysing risk, we are also expected to assess the impact of
any given threat to general security atmosphere of any given community. We
should be able to identify the amount of adverse effect that the occurrence of
such threat or hazard may have on the general wellbeing of the people or /and
infrastructure and/or community in general. Consequently, we will be able to
measure if the impact of the threat will pose no or low or high risk to the
security of the people or community. Thus, the greater the impact that a threat
will have on the infrastructure or system or people the greater the risk it will
pose to the security of the people or community or infrastructure;

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h. Discovering the consequences of a threat: In conducting risk analysis, we are

obliged to discover the potential consequences that the threat will have on
people or community and these consequences may include infrastructural
damage or/and loss of property or/and slight injuries or/and permanent injuries
or/and deaths. The gravity of the possible consequences that the threat will
produce largely deduce the amount of risk that such threat pose to security;

i. Determining the level of vulnerability to threat : We should identify the level of

our vulnerability to a hazardous event or threat to determine the amount of risk
that such hazardous event or threat or attack can likely pose to security; and

j. Identifying potential risk mitigation factors : This is a critical element of risk

analysis. It involves identifying various ideas, approaches and methodologies
that help in reducing the impact of security threat or possible ways to prevent its
(re)occurrence.
SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain risk analysis and its elements.

4.0 CONCLUSION

Risk can be said to be part of human nature. We embark on one action (project or
business or operation) or the other not without risk i.e. probability of it succeeding or
failing. Newly married men often strive to get their wives impregnated with the aim
of having the fruits of wedding, which are children but not without the risk that
characterises child birth. Even, when the children are born safely, the parents face
another risk of having means to provide for the basic needs of these children
especially among families with little or no socio-economic fortunes. Professionally,
as security practitioners, we encounter risks from time to time due to the nature of
our job, and these risks can exhibit themselves from different dimensions like attacks
from enemies (robbers, terrorists, arsonists etc), accidental discharge, blackmail, to
mention a few.

For instance, there was a case of a security man who was mandated by his employer to
shoot at someone who was thought to be a robber jumping into the compound through
the fence, and the fellow never bothered to subject the instruction to risk analysis due
to the mentality of most security men to obey superior orders without trying to know
the rationale behind such orders (risk psychology). Incidentally, that security man shot
the person mistaken for a robber and it was later found that it was the employer’s son.
Swiftly, the employer denied ordering the security man to shoot at the victim, and after
a long judicial battle, the poor security man was sentenced to a long jail term after
being convicted for manslaughter.

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The fact is that many security men usually discountenance the possibility of being
made liable to the actions taken by them despite being ordered to do so by their
superior officers. The act of carelessly obeying the superior order without considering
the risk involved in such orders is frowned at by international criminal law,
recommending punishments for individuals who carry-out any inhuman acts for their
“obedience to superior orders” (Bassiouni, 1992:343). It is therefore advisable to
always subject all potential risks that we may encounter in our actions, relations and
professions to analysis, and it is when we do this (risk analysis) that we are likely to
identify ways to mitigate the risks.

5 . 0 S U M MA R Y

In this unit, our central subject of discourse was risk and other related issues like risk
psychology and risk analysis. We began our task by explaining the meaning of the
term risk. Thereafter, we described the issue of risk psychology especially as it relates
to security. The last area of inquiry was risk analysis where we defined the concept
(risk analysis) and discussed its basic elements.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

i. Define the terms risk, risk probability, risk psychology and risk analysis; and

ii. Briefly discuss any three elements of risk analysis.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Bassiouni, M.C. (1992). Crime Against Humanity in International Criminal Law.

Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Fuller, G. A. & Forrest R. P. (1990). Youth Cohorts and Political Unrest in South-
Korea. Political Geography Quarterly 9: 9-22.

Goldstone, J. A. (2002). Population and Security: How Demographic Change can Lead
to Violent Conflict. Journal of International Affairs 56(1): 3-22.

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (2000). Risk
Reduction. Disaster Preparedness Training Programme. Geneva: IFRC. June.

Luhmann, N.(1996). Modern Society Shocked by its Risks. Occasional Paper 17.
Hongkong: Social Sciences Research Centre/Dept. of Sociology, University of Hong
Kong. Available on ://hub.hku.hk/handle/123456789/38822. Retrieved on 30
September, 2009.

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UNDP & UNDRO (1992). An Overview of Disaster Management (2nd Edition).

Disaster Management Training Programme.

Urdal, H. (2004). The Devil in the Demographics: the Effect of Youth Bulges on
Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000. CPR Working Paper 14. Washington, DC:
World Bank.

Wold, G.H. & Shriver, R.F. (1997). Risk Analysis Techniques. Disaster Recovery
Journal. Available on ://www.drj.com/new2dr/w3_030.htm. Retrieved on 28 August,
2009.

://buildsecurityin.us-cert.gov/daisy/bsi/590-BSI.html. Retrieved on 4 October, 2009.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 30 September, 2009.

://kashmirdivision.nic.in/Disaster_Management /dm_center.htm). Retrieved on 30

September, 2009.

://searchmidmarketsecurity.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid198_gci1182538,00.html
. Retrieved on 4 October, 2009.

://www.oxfordrisk.com/about_us/risk_psychology.php. Retrieved on 1 October. 2009.

(://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/199411/risk. Retrieved on 1 October, 2009.

://www.unisdr.org/eng/public_aware/world_camp/2004/booklet-eng/Pagina 9ing.pdf.
Retrieved on 30 September, 2009.

.ee.oulu.fi/research/ouspg/sage/glossary. Retrieved on 4 October, 2009.

.etpconsulting.co.uk/Business%20Continuity/business-continui ty-glossary.htm.
Retrieved on 4 October, 2009.

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UNIT 2

VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment
3.2 VCA: Building Capacity of the Masses to Disaster Management
3.3 Importance of Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The function of responding to disasters is a very tasking one. Such a task involves
adequate training and knowledge of various activities and action about disaster
management. Due to the risk posed to the continued survival of every community in
human and material terms, the subject of disaster management and emergency
response is gaining more space within intellectual community. Quite a number of
community-based efforts and initiatives are being undertaken by several local and
international humanitarian organization especially the Red Cross and United Nations
Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). The reasons are not farfetched, considering
the degree of destruction in human and material terms that accompany any situation of
disaster.

Take for instance, incident of inferno in private buildings, which is usually considered
as minor disaster, is capable of destroying all that took an individual almost five

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decades to attain, just in few hours. In an occurrence of serious fire-outbreak, the

occupants of the building may not have time to remove their valuable items and
important documents like school results/certificates among other items, and within
twinkle of an eye, all labour for several years can be consumed by fire. Considering the
losses that may be recorded at domestic level through an outbreak of disaster, one
cannot imagine the magnitude of losses that may be encountered in a major disaster
like earthquake or tsunami, which effect goes beyond a single house but may affect the
whole community or even several communities. It is against this background that it is
pertinent to always conduct vulnerability and capacity assessment with the aim of
identifying threats that can constitute a disaster, so that we can further build our
capacity to prevent or mitigate (the effect of) such disaster(s) as well as reduce the
people’s vulnerability to hazards. In this unit, our study interest shall be centred on the
concept of vulnerable and capacity assessment (VCA).

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Describe the term vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA);

• Explain how VCA builds people’s capacity to disaster mitigation and

management through its objectives; and

• Discuss the importance of vulnerability and capacity assessment.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Definition of Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment

It is the aim of simplifying the concept of vulnerable and capacity assessment that we
begin to delve into the conceptual task before us by separating the terms vulnerability
and capacity, so that we can have better understanding of the subject under scrutiny.
However, most times people and even humanitarian intervention practitioners mistake
the concept- vulnerability for vulnerable groups. The regular misapplication of this
concept (vulnerability) underscores the need to always subject the term to conceptual
elaboration. The reason is that the term is wider in its meaning than to be defined
parochially or narrowly.

Therefore, when defining the term, it is important to clarify within what context we are
applying it. Though, in terms of economic distribution, poor people may be said to be
vulnerable. Thus, this is not usually the case in disaster (management) discourse. This
is because most times it is everybody, irrespective of one’s socio-economic status, that
will be affected directly or indirectly when disaster is experienced (Raphael, 1986), but
the poor appear to be affected more than their rich counterparts. For instance, in a
disaster where people’s houses are washed away by flood, it will be easier for the rich
to get another shelter than the poor because the rich have the money

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to get themselves alternative accommodation. This view is corroborated by Chambers

(1989), who contends that it would amount to misconception if we mistake
defencelessness or insecurity for lack of want, and according to him:

The contrast is clearer when different dimensions of deprivation are distinguished, for
example, physical weakness, isolation, poverty, and powerlessness as well as
vulnerability. Of these, physical weakness, isolation and poverty are quite well
recognised, and many programmes seek to alleviate them; powerlessness is crucial but
it is rare for direct action against it to be politically acceptable; and vulnerability has
remained curiously neglected in analysis and policy, perhaps because of its confusion
with poverty. Yet vulnerability, and its opposite, security, stand out as recurrent
concerns of poor people which professional definitions of poverty overlook (Chambers,
1989: 2).

The term, vulnerability can therefore be defined as:

...a perception of the lack of capacity to defend against injury, harm or damage from a
threat or a hazard (Kuban & MacKenzie-Carey, 2001: 4).

...insecurity, the reverse of security"; it reflects "the characteristics of a person or

group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the
impact of a natural hazard. It involves a combination of factors that determine the
degree to which someone's life and livelihood is put at risk by a discrete and
identifiable event in nature or in society (Blaikie et al, 1994).

....the weakness in your safeguards to protect your assets (US National Institute of
Standards and Technology cited by Kuban & MacKenzie-Carey, 2001: 4).

On the other hand, capacity can be said to be:

...based on specific requirements or needs and the distinct ability at that time to either
employ or access needed resources. The assessment of capacity level is also a function
of time and is typically modified over time, following changes to the operational
environment or personal circumstances (Kuban & MacKenzie-Carey, 2001: 4).

From the foregoing definitions of the two terms-vulnerability and capacity, the former
involves level of exposure of an individual or community to security threat or hazards
while the latter deals with how much ability an individual or community have in
mitigating the effect of a hazard and reducing the losses that accompany a threat or
hazard, and more importantly the capacity to prevent the hazard from leading to a
disaster.

At this juncture, let us see some of the existing definitions of vulnerability and capacity
assessment (VCA). VCA as you are expected to know means vulnerable and capacity
assessment. So, if you come across that acronym subsequently in this course or
elsewhere, you should know what it means. And on the question of the definition of

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VCA, it can be described as a systematic and strategic way of measuring level of

susceptibility to threats as against amount of ability available to counter such threats or
hazard or at least to reduce losses, and the end result is to show if:

...individuals, households, communities and nations have resources that can resist the
impact of a hazard and/or recover quickly from them. A hazard does not cause a
disaster unless there are people affected by it; people who do not have the capacity to
resist. For example, all countries of the world widely possess something very
dangerous: a system of roads with fast moving vehicles. But because we have some
education and knowledge as well as faculties of sight and hearing we are not very
vulnerable to this potentially serious threat. The fact that relatively few people get
killed by walking across these roads shows the high level of training implicit in our up-
bringing to avoid this hazard (see ://reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/LGEL-
5G8F5Q/$file/ifrc-Toolbox-oct96.pdf?openelement
VCA can also be defined as a set of disaster management procedures:

...concerned with collecting, analysing and systematising information on a given

community’s vulnerability to hazards in a structured and meaningful way. This
information is then used to diagnose the key risks and existing capacities of the
community, ultimately leading to activities aimed at reducing people’s vulnerability
to potential disasters and increasing their capacity to survive them and resume their
lives (IFRC, 2006: 4-5).

In addition, vulnerability and capacity assessment can be described as an approach,

which reveals:

the extent to which a community, structure, service, and/or geographic area is likely to
be damaged or disrupted by the impact of particular hazard, on account of their
nature, construction and proximity to hazardous terrain or a disaster prone area
(Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.).

In summary, the rationale behind VCA is to enable us to detect how much we are
vulnerable to specific threats or hazards and what is the level of preparedness and how
much resources we have to prevent the hazard from getting to disaster level.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe vulnerability and capacity assessment?

3.2 VCA: Building Capacity of the Masses to Disaster Management

In the last section, we revealed the misconception that most people have in the
definition of the term vulnerability. This is because quite a number of people often use
the concept exclusively to convene the pitiable situations that poor people are usually
found. The meaning of the term transcends condition of poverty. In disaster
management, it is not only the poor that may be affected by hazard or disaster as the

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case may be. This view is reflected in the words of President Carlos Flores of
Honduras in his reaction to the very destructive effect of Hurricane Mitch that occurred
in Central America in 1998, and according to him, “we lost in 72 hours what we have
taken more than 50 years to build, bit by bit.” (cited in 1FRC, 2006).

Meanwhile, one conclusion that can be drawn from the sorrowful comment expressed
by Flores is that it is not the poor that are affected by the occurrence of disaster(s).
The rich also cry, and the basis of this argument is that apart from loss of lives, most
of the houses and structures destroyed by the hurricane were owned by the rich.
Therefore, in material matters, the rich suffer more than the poor when disaster is
experienced but the recovery capacity of the rich is always greater than that of the
poor.

The reason is that the poor are already vulnerable due to socio-economic
incapacitation, and they become more vulnerable in the incidence of disaster. They
hardly have enough resources to take care of their basic needs let alone having extra
to use in the purchase of individual protective equipments to build their response
capacity to hazard or threat. It is nothing but the truth that the level of vulnerability
among the poor to security threat or disaster appears to be very high in developing
countries like Nigeria. This situation is capable of undermining ability of the country
to actualise the vision that behind the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (see
ISDR, 2005).

Sadly, experience still shows that the country continually records avoidable deaths
resulting from malaria and other common ailments. This shows that the poor are
extremely incapacitated to mitigate losses from hazards and are also incapable of
preventing hazard from getting to disaster. This gap between the ‘haves’ (rich) and
‘haves-not’ (downtrodden or poor) in their capacity to handle threats and managing
disaster is one of the factors responsible for the introduction of vulnerability and
capacity assessment by several emergency and humanitarian agencies notably the Red
Cross.

Noteworthy, is the activities of such organizations have really attracted the attention of
the international community, and the world body (the UN) through some of its
specialised agencies especially the United Nations Disaster Relief Organisation
(UNDRO). VCA is designed to reduce people’s vulnerability and builds their capacity
to disaster preparedness and mitigation through the following objectives:

a) Reduction of the impact of threats: one of the objectives of VCA is to assist

people to reduce the impact or effect of security attack or hazards through
mitigation, prediction and warning, and preparedness (see IFRC, 2006);

b) Capacity building: Efforts are made to enhance the capacity of the people
towards reduction of vulnerability especially through risk education,
preparedness, warning and protective actions;

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c) Advocating for good governance : By advocating for good governance and

abolition of all discriminatory policies and promotion of social justice and if
the decision-makers begin to act creatively by giving the wellbeing of the
people a priority attention, people will therefore have more self confidence and
greater capacity to take care of themselves to reduce losses that may
accompany any hazard or security attack.

For instance, if more employment opportunities are provided and living wages
are introduced, people will definitely have more resources, some of which they
can use to increase their ability to respond to hazards more creatively through
risk education and by buying themselves some important individual protective
equipment. For instance, a poorly paid worker whose car does not have a spare
tire, upon having a substantial salary increase may decide to get a spared tire
for his/her car. In doing so, he/she has improved his/her potentials towards risk
reduction;

d) Addressing the structural causes of vulnerability : Poverty remains a factor that

makes people to be more vulnerable resulting economic incapacitation. For
instance, in most urban centres in Nigeria, many commercial motor cyclists
still go about doing their business without the use of crash helmets in defiance
of the traffic rule by the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), which mandates
everybody riding motor cycle to always crash helmet. Though, one may say
that the culture of deviance to traffic rules among road users is a factor
responsible for the non-compliance by most motor-cyclists because they are
willing, they can still manage to buy it but the point we are making here, is that
the situation has been further compounded by the sharp inflation in the cost of
crash helmets since the implementation of the law in Nigeria.

No doubt, this situation captures the challenges faced by the masses where
every law for risk mitigation by the government is always used to take
advantage of the poor with the aim of making much profit. The prevailing
circumstance in which the cost of purchasing a crash helmet has risen by about
300% has deepened the vulnerability of the motor cyclists. Here, they face risks
of possible fatality from accident(s) and also risk of arrest and prosecution by
the law enforcement agents for failing to obey the new law.

It is very sad that the government that is enforcing the use of crash helmets has
nevertheless failed in its responsibility, to regulate the prices of these helmets.
Even, in the leading capitalist nations, the prices of very essential products are
still being regulated by government let alone a less capitalist state like Nigeria.
We should still acknowledge the efforts made by some state governments to get
these helmets for the commercial cyclists but not without political undertone.

Knowing the adverse impact that poor political and economic policies can have
on the masses, VCA usually involves empowering the people and alleviating the
incidence of impoverishment and poverty among them because they can

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easily affect “...people’s level of vulnerability and the strength of their capacity
to resist, cope and recover” (IFRC, 2006). It is against this background that one
of the objectives of VCA is to work towards poverty reduction and economic
empowerment; and

(e) Aiding development : Another objective of vulnerable and capacity assessment

is to engender and promote development in any given community. One of the
reasons is the capability of disaster to wipe out the development that people
have laboured for in a given community for several years in hours or even
minutes. In order to aid further development, adoption of VCA is targeted
towards improved alertness and preparedness of people against any massive
losses that hazards or threats may bring into bear, by engaging in such activities
like risk education, risk reduction, appreciation of early warnings, disaster
mitigation, preparedness, protective actions, to mention a few.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain the objectives of vulnerable and capacity assessment as a framework for

building the capacity of the masses towards disaster mitigation.

3.3 Importance of Vulnerable and Capacity Assessment

a) Mitigating the impact of hazard: VCA plays great roles in the reduction or
mitigation of the impact that incident of hazard or threat can have on people or
any community. It creates opportunity for people to participate in disaster
management processes, and gain knowledge and transferable skills on ways to
manage hazard or threat, so that they can take care of themselves whenever they
experience any hazard or attack;

b) Address of fundamental socio-economic issues : It assists to address issues by

drawing the attention of both the ruled and rulers to some issues that can
undermine the overall security of any given community. One of the factors that
promote vulnerability is poverty, and VCA advocates for drastic poverty
reduction, if it cannot be eliminated completely. It is not an exaggeration to
contend that it has a tendency of engendering a cycle of vulnerability because
“...today’s poverty is yesterday’s unaddressed vulnerability” (Yamin et al.,
2005). What we mean is that if issues of poverty are not adequately addressed it
can generate another set of vulnerabilities, which will also lead to another
incidence of poverty, as the situation keeps rotating in circular form and
culminating in disaster. See figure 1.1:

FIGURE 1.1 The Progression of Vulnerability

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Source: ://reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/LGEL-5G8F5Q/$file/ifrc-Toolbox-
oct96.pdf? openelement.

It is however advisable to call for reforms if there is deficiency in the existing

policies by government especially if they fail to take care of the basic needs of
the people. This is because the risk that deprivation can pose to the security of
any state as evident in the Niger-Delta region of Nigeria is enormous.
Successive governments have failed to do enough in addressing the problem of
environmental degradation and the agelong deprivation being suffered by the
people of this region. It was not surprising that the youth of the area had to
resolve to take up arms against the Nigerian government. The situation of
militancy, sabotage and hostage-taking in the region has almost reached a point
of disaster. We cannot but pray that the current peace-making arrangement
including the granting of amnesty to the militants by government would yield
the long-desired peace in the region;

c) Early warning mechanism: It can also serve as an early warning mechanism to

alert the government or the people on the impeding danger that specific
activities may portend to the (entire) security of live and property in the state.
As security experts or professionals, we can also perform this function through
intelligence reporting. For instance, there is an impending risk to public
security where the political elite recruit youths for political thuggery. This is
because there is the tendency that some of these recruited youth if dumped by
their former patrons or in a situation of the demise of their masters, will
become very vulnerable. And their vulnerable state makes them to seek for
alternative means to survive, no doubt that many of them become armed
robbers, kidnappers, car snatchers, etc.

Early warning can also be applied for private security. Through security
education and knowledge of hazard (disaster) mitigation and prevention, people
become aware of the risk involved in the specific aspects of their lifestyles or
private activities to their personal safety. For instance, many NGOs visit

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schools to educate students on the danger of engaging in premarital sex,

sharing of sharp objects and unprotected sex. The reason is to alert them on the
possible contraction of deadly infections like the HIV-AIDS, so that they can
prepare themselves to avoid engaging in such habits. Even, in a situation that
such a student wants to engage in sex, he/she is advised to use condom. This
process of alertness and advice can constitute early warning;

d) Promotion of development : It helps in the promotion by encouraging further

developmental projects and activities among the stakeholders in any
community, and increases the consciousness of the people and policy makers
on how to achieve further development in their immediate community. It also
raises hazard preparedness and disaster mitigation as a way of avoiding
disruption of their personal and community development by incidence of threat
and disaster.

The issues of development are very strategic to the capacity of communities to

manage their security. The costly nature of putting in place various
developmental facilities has adversely affected the potentials of several
developing or poor countries to develop like their counterparts in Europe and
elsewhere. For instance, one cannot imagine how much it will cost Nigeria to
install surveillance camera in every nooks and cranny of the country but the
truth of the matter is that the resources (human and material) being lost through
armed robbery alone is unquantifiable. This view is also shared by Mr. Kofi
Annan, the erstwhile Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN), and
according to him:

More effective prevention strategies would save not only tens of billions of
dollars, but save tens of thousands of lives. (...) Building a culture of
prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the
present, its benefits lie in a distant future. Moreover, the benefits are not
tangible; they are the disasters that did NOT happen (Annan, 1999).

In as much as development takes a lot of time to accomplish, there is no

amount of money that is too much to protect it and ensure that disaster is
prevented from destroying it. For instance, it is very laughable for an individual
to use millions of Naira to purchase a car and finds it very difficult to spend
little money on the purchase of fire extinguisher to put in his/her. In the case of
fire outbreak, the car may likely burn down completely except there is timely
and adequate response to quench the fire. Though, this scenario may look like a
farce but it is something that happens in Nigeria where poor habits of risk
taking has remained prevalent among the people; and

e) Detection of possible threats or hazards: It helps us to gather information on

potential security threats through the application of several participatory tools,
which will enable us to identify the degree to which each individual is exposed
to threats or hazards. For instance, in a family where one of its members is

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infected with tuberculosis and the house they are staying is poorly ventilated.
Through VCA, professional advice can be timely and adequately provided to
reduce the possibility of the disease spreading to other members of the family as
well as providing medical countermeasures especially in the treatment of the
affected person. The grassroot nature of VCA makes the whole process a very
interactive one, so that the public can be encouraged to participate actively in
the issues that bother on their own security and that of the community at large.

SELF ASSESSEMENT EXERCISE

Discuss the importance of VCA in disaster mitigation.

4.0 CONCLUSION

The development that took a whole community over fifty years to accomplish can be
destroyed within minutes as a result of disaster. Disaster can express itself in natural or
human forms. Some natural disasters like flood can wash away most of the social
infrastructure in any community, and this phenomenon is capable of distorting the
process of development of any community. Even, on domestic front, many people have
virtually lost everything they had worked for in their life-time to disasters such as
inferno. Vulnerability and capacity assessment involves a process in which sustainable
development activities are integrated with disaster management and mitigation
practices. It provides a grassroot forum to the public to acquire transferable skills and
knowledge about the ways through which they can respond effectively to reduce losses
from hazards and attacks.

5 . 0 SU M MA R Y

In this unit, we started our study by describing the term vulnerability and capacity
assessment. Thereafter, our attention centred on how the objectives of the vulnerability
and capacity assessment can help in building the capacity people especially those who
are economically vulnerable to discuss aspects of the lives or other things or issues
they consider can make them vulnerable to hazards or threats, as we also discussed
some of the ways people can take care of themselves when they experience hazards
and mitigate the effect that such hazard can have on them. The last but not the least
area of discourse in this unit was the importance of this concept, VCA to prevent
incidence of disaster. Thank you for your patience.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASIGNMENT

Write a short note on the meaning of vulnerable and capacity assessment, and any four
of its objectives.

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7.0 REFERENCE AND FURTHER READING

Annan, K. (1999). Annual Report of the Secretary-General on the Work of the

Organization of United Nations. Document A/54/1. New York: United Nations.

Blaikie P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. & Wisner, B. (1994). At Risk: Natural Hazards,
People's Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge.

Chambers, R. (1989). Vulnerability: How the Poor Cope. IDS Bulletin: 20 (2)

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/LGEL-5G8F5Q/$file/ifrc-Toolbox-oct96.pdf?
openelement. Retrieved on 20 August 2009.
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). (2006). An
introduction to vulnerability and capacity assessment. Geneva.

Kuban, R & MacKenzie-Carey, H. (2001). Community-wide Vulnerability and

Capacity Assessment (CVCA). Also available on Error! Hyperlink reference not
valid.. Retrieved on 21 August 2009.

Raphael, B. (1986). When Disaster Strikes: How Individuals and Communities Cope
with Catastrophe. New York: Basic Books.

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). (2005). Reducing
Disaster Risk: a challenge for development. Geneva: ISDR.

Yamin, F., Rahman, A & Huq, S. (2005). Vulnerability, Adaptation and Climate
Disasters: A Conceptual Overview. IDS Bulletin, 36 (4)

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UNIT 3

SIMULATION IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Definition of Simulation
3.2 Types of Simulation
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u mm ar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Simulation can be applied in different ways, and these may include modelling of
natural systems aimed at having an idea of possible vulnerability of the system to
specific threats or attacks. It can also be applied to have an insight on the performance
of (security) technology for optimization and effectiveness, safety engineering and
training. Simply, simulation assists us to identify potential shortcomings or failures in
operation that we may later encounter in the discharge of our duties as security experts
or professional.

It is important to note that we must be very careful in our choice of information source
to be selected for the simulation process. Selection of relevant information is very
strategic in arriving at decision on the crucial characteristics and behaviours to select
for the process. It is essential to use simplifying approximations and assumptions in
simulation activities. In this unit, the reader/student shall be exposed to the meaning

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and various types of simulation, and show how they can be applied as well as their
relevance to security planning and management.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Describe the concept of simulation;

• Identify types of simulation; and

• Explain the identified types of simulation.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Simulation

Simulation is not a new concept and practice in security. In traditional African society,
simulation was often applied by the guards and warriors. For instance, in traditional
Ila-Orangun in present day Osun state, Nigeria, after a series of simulation exercise by
the community guards, they discovered that offensive attacks may come from enemies
without any prior notice especially in the middle of the night. Therefore, they decided
to make a very big hole to surround the entire community, as a booby trap against the
enemy(ies) who may wish to launch an offensive attack, and avoid being caught
unaware by enemies’ attacks. At this juncture, let us draw our attention to the task of
this segment of the unit, which is to expose ourselves to some of the existing
definitions of the term simulation. Simulation can be defined as

...the imitation of some real thing, state of affairs, or process. The act of simulating
something generally entails representing certain key characteristics or behaviours of a
selected physical or abstract system" (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/simulation).

...the act of imitating the behavior of some situation or some process by means of
something suitably analogous (especially for the purpose of study) (Error! Hyperlink
reference not valid.).

...something which simulates a system or environment in order to predict actual

behaviour (://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/simulation).

...the process of creating a model (i.e., an abstract representation or facsimile) of an

existing or proposed system (e.g., a project, a business, a mine, a watershed, a forest,
the organs in your body) in order to identify and understand those factors which
control the system and/or to predict (forecast) the future behaviour of the system.
Almost any system which can be quantitatively described using equations and/or rules

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can be simulated. The underlying purpose of simulation is to shed light on the

underlying mechanisms that control the behaviour of a system. More practically,
simulation can be used to predict (forecast) the future behaviour of a system, and
determine what you can do to influence that future behaviour. That is, simulation can
be used to predict the way in which the system will evolve and respond to its
surroundings, so that you can identify any necessary changes that will help make the
system perform the way that you want it to (://www.goldsim.com/ Content.asp?
PageID=91)

a broad collection of methods used to study and analyze the behavior and performance
of actual or theoretical systems. Simulation studies are performed, not on the real-
world system, but on a (usually computer-based) model of the system created for the
purpose of studying certain system dynamics and characteristics. The purpose of any
model is to enable its users to draw conclusions about the real system by studying and
analyzing the model. The major reasons for developing a model, as opposed to
analyzing the real system, include economics, unavailability of a “real” system, and
the goal of achieving a deeper understanding of the relationships between the elements
of the system (://www.answers.com/topic/simulation).

If we subject the foregoing definitions to operational dissection, simulation can be used

differently by various professions or for different purposes. But, at the beginning of the
20th century, the introduction of computer to the world population and the emerging
appreciation of systems theory and cybernetic studies unified to a large extent the
processes of simulation in various fields. For instance, relevant officials in an
Examination body like the West African Examination Council (WAEC) can conduct
simulation to test the reliability of various measures put in place by the examination
body to curb or reduce examination malpractices. Emergency workers can also engage
in simulation to examine the effectiveness or efficiency of their emergency systems
and level of preparedness to responding to emergency situations.

In addition, the police can conduct simulation exercise to put their preparedness to
test on how timely and effectively they can respond against any security threats. They
act the simulating scripts as if the situation is real. Frankly, it is no exaggeration that
Nigeria police lacks absolutely the culture of security simulation. Had the authorities
of the nation's police promote regular conduct of simulation exercise, the way the
men and officers of the police are being killed on regular basis from attacks in police
stations, armed robbers' bullets or any other threats/hazards would have been very
minimal. It is not surprising that police personnel always fail to respond very
appropriately and effectively to emergency. This shows that their level of
preparedness is very far below the average. This is one of the factors responsible for
the call being made by concerned citizens, for the introduction of joint patrol that
would be composed of members of the police and the armed forces especially the
Army.

The growing popularity being enjoyed by computer has led to the use of computer as a
platform through which any kind of simulation can be facilitated be it health-care

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simulation or military simulation or education simulation or any other forms of

simulation. A lot of simulation software has also been invented and it is left for the
user to decide on which one will fit into the purpose for which the simulation is to be
carried-out.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is simulation?

3.2 Types of Simulation

The importance of simulation in strategic security planning and management cannot be

over-emphasised, especially as it concerns identifying any weakness in our systems
and operation through which we can develop alternative ideas and policies to address
such weakness and vulnerability to mitigate the risk of system or/and operational
failure. As we have rightly pointed out, simulation can be used for numerous purposes
depending on the problem we aim to unravel and apply solution to.

The complexity of the problem we are working on may require simulation package or
exercise that will demand from us, a very sound knowledge on how to apply the
tool(s). In this case, the services of experts may be required to guide the simulation
process if the application is a (very) technical one. Let us go back to the basis of this
segment of the unit, which involves explaining various types of simulation. Basically,
types of simulation may include the following:

(a) Education and Training Simulation : Security profession requires sufficient

mental alertness and physical strength, and that is why it is not everybody that
can do a security job. The nature of security profession underscores the need by
professionals to always engage themselves in periodic training. For instance, it
is very sad to hear such situations where the police pursue armed robbers and
fail to pin-down the bandits despite the numerical strength and strategic
advantage the police has over them. Someone argues that most times the bandits
appear to be more equipped than the police as the reason for operational failure
on the part of the police. Situations like these undermine the relevance of the
public security personnel's capacity to maintain law and order as well as check
any acts of criminality.

Also, the problem of police teams being overpowered by the sophistication of

the weapons that robbers carry can be easily addressed if the men and officers
of the police can undergo simulation exercise from time to time. Even,
members of every patrol team should simulate before going out to discharge
their duties, so that they can weigh their vulnerability against their capacity for
optimal performance. If they can identify areas of vulnerability in their
operations, then they can map out strategies to adopt to build their capacity
towards preventing the threats from happening or mitigating the effect, that
such threats can have on them or their operation where they occur.

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For instance, a security patrol team that receives a signal that a bank robbery is
going on in a place will be expected to act immediately to foil the robbery.
Most times, police patrol (rescue) teams are found in the habits of announcing
to the robbers of their (the police) coming through their blowing of sirens.
Unfortunately, before they could reach the location where the robbery is taking
place, the robbers would have laid ambush for them, and within a twinkle of an
eye, robbers that are well positioned and equipped with sophisticated riffles,
would have decimated the ranks of the police teams(s), a situation which often
forces the lucky policemen to retreat, as they always find it difficult to recover
promptly due to lack of preparedness in hazard mitigation and strategic
planning.

Where security practitioners simulate, their preparedness level in acting

against any attack will be very high because you would have projected into the
future and identify potential threats or challenges you may encounter in the
course of discharging your duties as a security professional. And in doing this,
you will prepare yourself before hand, and in the event that such hazard or
attack occurs the losses that will be recorded will be minimal. I feel it is more
appropriate for the police not to alert the robbers of their coming by the
blowing of siren. This is because the daring nature of most armed robbers in
the country has made the blowing of siren by law enforcement agents
obsolete. They are brave and always willing to challenge the law enforcement
agents in gun battles. Strategically, for the fact that the rescue team may not
know the identities of the bandits, it is better that they send an intelligence
team to do some collation of vital information about the happening in the
affected area for situation analysis.

After conducting situation analysis, we need to conduct risk analysis and

assessment to know if it is most appropriate to move straight into where
robbery is taking place or it is most reasonable to block all roads that lead to
the affected location where a bank robbery is taking place, and wait for the
robbers to come out. The reason for this process is to avoid fatality or high
losses of lives especially the civilians that may be hit by bullets in the course of
engaging the bandits.

After conducting a risk assessment, it may be agreed that a team should be sent
to the scene, all of whom should be in plain-cloths, so that they cannot be
easily identified by the robbers. And as you may be aware, robbers hit the
police easily because they can identify them through their uniform. But, if it is
considered that the robbers will do more harm by being allowed to complete
their operation before attacking them, may be when sporadic killing of
customers or bank staff is noticed, a team of experienced officers and men may
be sent in.

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Caution should be exercised here, there is a need to equip the policemen and
officers with bullet-proof vests because people applying for security jobs not
with the ultimate desire to suffer avoidable death. Tear-gas may be useful to
make the enemies lose their balance and destabilise them. I feel, here is the
most convenient place to stop our discussion on ways to foil or liquidate a
robbery incident. As you may know, we cannot exhaust all aspects of security
discourse in a forum. Security requires continued research and intellectual
probing.

By and large, education simulation helps us to know the most appropriate

training (academic or fitness) we need to undertake to optimise our
performance in the discharge of our duties as security experts and
professionals. There is no doubt that the security profession is a very tasking
one considering the hazards and work-overload that characterise it. Security
personnel work long hours, even sometimes they hardly get time to attend to
family issues. It is pertinent for the policy makers to see education simulation
as an important element of security sector reform (SSR).

There are three types of education and training simulation. The first one is live
simulation. In live simulation, it is expected that trainees use simulated or
mannequin equipment in the real world. As you may be aware, it is not all
security trainings that can be undertaken with the real equipment. For instance,
if a training is going to be conducted in knowing how effectively, each of your
security officers can act in the face of hazard or in shoot-outs with enemies
(terrorists, militants, armed robbers etc), one cannot expect that these trainees
should be equipped with live ammunitions because of the risk involved in such
action.

It will be irrational to allow the use of dangerous weapons for training due to
the possibility of recording avoidable deaths among the trainees. It is, therefore,
advisable to use live simulation through which we can still know the level of
competence of each trainee without putting them to unnecessary risk of killing
themselves. In the process, the trainees will identify their individual and
collective areas of vulnerability and subsequently develop ways through which
they can improve on their capacity for optimal performance.

It is unfortunate that in Nigeria, security personnel, most times, are posted to

specific positions without considering their level of competence for the job or
assignment. For instance, many men and officers of the armed forces lobby to
be included on peacekeeping contingent without simulating or being able to
build scenarios, which can help in making them aware of the inherent risk
involved in undertaking peacekeeping mission in a troubled zone(s), and
which can help them prepare psychologically, physically, emotionally and
strategically. Many soldiers lost their lives after being trapped with ladies by
the enemies. Live simulation is also known as “high fidelity”. This
demonstrates the samples of the (possible) real performance of the trainees

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compared to the “low fidelity” simulation that is based on the use of pencil and
paper that can only show “signs of performance” (Error! Hyperlink reference
not valid.) rather than the real performance of the trainee(s).

The second type of simulation is virtual simulation. Virtual simulation

actually involves the use of real people using simulated tools in a simulated
world. In virtual simulation, the process often involves the use of computer
simulation by the trainees in undergoing training. The third type is
Constructive simulation. Constructive simulation usually involves a process
whereby simulated people use simulated tools in a simulated world. This
simulation type is also known as war-gaming. It can be described as a form of
simulation whereby “players command armies of soldiers and equipment that
move around on a board” (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/simulation). We shall
discuss this type of simulation extensively subsequently (see military
simulation);
(b) Health Care Simulation: The form of simulation is also in security and safety, it
affords the health care providers an opportunity to examine their capacity to
respond to emergency situations. Simulation helps to reduce the situation of
crisis in patients because, as stressed by Eder-Van Hook (2004):

A health care provider's ability to react so prudently in an unexpected situation

is one of the most critical factors in creating positive outcome in medical
emergency, regardless of whether it occurs on the battlefield, freeway, or
hospital emergency room (cited on ://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/simulation).

Eder-Van Hook stressed further, saying that medical errors or lack of adequate
medical attention to patients by health care providers have led to almost ninety-
eight thousand (98,000) deaths, with a lot of financial implications as well,
which amounts to between US$37 and US$50 million on annual basis. It is very
unfortunately the way health-care providers in Nigeria respond to emergency
cases. For instance, somebody who is shot by a group of robbers will hardly
survive the bullet wounds he/she sustains from the bandits. The issue is not
basically because he/she has been shot in part(s) of the body that he/she can
hardly survive but the poor handling of the situation always result in recording
high rate of avoidable deaths in our hospitals.

It is a very abnormal situation where some patients in teaching hospitals are

given referral to private clinics for treatment, and the reason always given is
lack of competent medical hands that can manage the medical needs of these
poor patients. What a situation like this denotes is that our teaching hospitals
can no longer be considered as tertiary health-care institutions as they have
relegated their responsibilities (in the name of making money) and transfer
such to private clinics many of which can hardly boast of having qualified
medical staff. In this kind of messy situation, health-care simulation will make
no sense to the health practitioners because many of them have found more
importance in making brisk business than saving lives. And the decision

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makers that are supposed to caution them are less bothered because they get
their treatment abroad, even when they have common headache. It is a spoilt
system!

Bringing our attention back to the subject under discourse, health-care

simulation has been demonstrating growing relevance in modern medical world.
Several medical simulators usually involve connecting computer to a plastic
simulation of related anatomy, and some of these simulators can be applied
through the use of dummy that reacts to injected drugs and can also be
automated to generate simulations of life-threatening emergency situations or
cases. In some instances, the simulation procedures are captioned and
reproduced by computer graphics tools. Health-care simulation has often been
found useful in training medical practitioners on the ways to build their
individual and collective capacities in responding effectively and timely to
emergency situations especially as regards the issue of saving lives and
management of health crisis; and

(c) Military simulation is also known as war-gaming. It involves an act of

simulating with the intention of putting various theories of war into test and if
need be, be refined without undergoing the real hostility of warfare. The
rationale behind military simulation is to facilitate a process through which we
can arrive at tactical, strategic and doctrinal answers to problems that bother on
defence and warfare. War-gaming can be described as a form of game or hobby
that showcases various activities of military operation in a simulated
environment.

War-gaming can be used for relaxation or game-playing, and this is known as

conflict simulations or consims. But, if we desire to engage in war-gaming for
the purpose of warfare, the process is usually known as war-game or military
exercise. Meanwhile, those that engage in war-gaming as a hobby don't usually
draw any distinction between the two aspects of warming earlier mentioned
because they always contend that whether for war-making or relaxation, any
war game should demonstrate to a large extent characteristics of human
behaviour as it would have been in the real world when war is being conducted
(see .alanemrich.com/PGD/Week_03/PGD_what_is_a_War game.htm).

However, war-game can be classified as historical, hypothetical, fantasy, or

science fiction. Historical war-games are often modelled after real events and
putting into simulation reasonable approximations of the actual forces, terrain as
well important factors that represent the real experience of the real players or
participants. For instance, those who usually have experience of Play Station
(game) especially the soccer, you will notice that each of the players
demonstrates the real capacity of the model player(s).

In Play Station 2, the scoring ability of Christiano Ronaldo (formerly of

Manchester United FC of England, but now of Real Madrid FC of Spain)

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cannot be compared with his scoring ability in Play Station 3, the fact is that
there was tremendous improvement in his scoring ability. Play Station 3 reflects
the improvement in his scoring ability, showing that the simulated Christian
Ronaldo demonstrates the actual ability of the real Ronaldo as at the time the
programme or application was being written. Here, history of the performance
and experience of players is considered in determining the capacity of the
simulated players.

Hypothetical war-games are actually those games that involve drawing

simulating materials about wars that did not happen. Fantasy and science
fiction war-games usually involve developing games from wars generated from
works of fiction or (creative) imagination. Finally, there are more types of
simulation but the three we have discussed in this unit can be considered as the
basic types of simulation for security planning and management. The reason is
that they cover virtually all aspects of securitisation namely disaster
management, law enforcement, defence, warfare, to mention a few.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Explain types of simulation.

4.0 CONCLUSION

In the final submission of our discourse on the concept of simulation, the concept can
be described as an essential instrument of decision analysis. It affords us a great
opportunity as security experts or practitioners to know the various areas of deficiency
in our service delivery operations as well as potential threats. The relevance of
simulation in modern security planning and management is enormous owing to the
nature of the uncertainty that characterises the general affairs including security issues
in recent time. For instance, since the end of the Cold War, state actors constitute less
threat to national and international security compared to the destructive attitude
portrayed by some non-state actors, which absolutely undermine the potentials of the
security sector to maintain law and order.

The September 11 2001 terrorist attack in the US has shown the very destructive
dimension, which threat emanating from non-state actors has assumed. Prior to that
ugly incident, nobody would believe that commercial planes could be used as a
weapon of mass destruction. There is no doubt, simulation assists us to appraise and
compare among alternative designs, plans and policies, so that we can choose the ones
that will enable us achieve optimal performance for best results. Simulation is very
vital in security planning due to its capacity to unravel secrets of uncertainties and
guide us in mounting solutions to the problem of uncertainty that can affect our
operations and policy-actions as security professionals in a quantifiable way. Above
all, simulation provides us an avenue to explore ways through which we can improve
on our preparedness for risk and hazard mitigation and high recovery capacity in the
event of any hazards or threats.

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5. 0 SUMMARY

In this unit we explored some of the existing definitions of the concept, simulation.
One fact that appeared from the various definitions presented, is that simulation can
be applied in various fields or disciplines and for different purposes. It is against that
background, we thought it necessary to discuss some of the basic types of simulation
that we can employ in security planning and management in order to safeguard the
security of the people. I hope that you have found this unit as interesting as you have
expected it to be. Well, if you have any question on any aspect of this unit or the
course in general, please feel free to get in touch with your instructional and tutorial
facilitator or get in touch with the writer through the coordinator of the course. Good
luck.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

What is simulation? Write short note on three types of simulation.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/simulation. Retrieved on 25 August 2009.

://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/simulation. Retrieved on 25 August 2009.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved on 25 August 2009.

://www.alanemrich.com/PGD/Week_03/PGD_what_is_a_Wargame.htm. Retrieved
on 14 April, 2008.

://www.answers.com/topic/simulation. Retrieved on 24 August 2009.

://www.goldsim.com/ Content.asp? PageID=91. Retrieved on 24 August

2009, Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.. Retrieved 25 August 2009.

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UNIT 4

CRIME ANALYSIS: MEANING AND IMPORTANCE IN THREAT MITIGATION

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Definition of Crime Analysis
3.2 Importance of Crime Analysis
3.3 Components of Crime Analysis
3.3.1 Data Mining
3.3.2 Crime Mapping
3.3.2.1 Elements of Crime mapping
3.3.3 Statistics
3.3.4 Critical Thinking
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m ma r y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References and Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Professionally, crime analysis as a subfield in Criminology and Security Studies

became popular in the 1960s but some of the attributes of crime analysis could be
found in ancient security practice. Due to the growing relevance being enjoyed by
information and communication technology, crime analysis in the 1990s underwent a
reform and sophistication. There is no doubt that computer revolution has contributed
greatly to the advanced state that crime analysis finds itself in recent time. In practical
terms, crime analysis is often applied at various levels of law enforcement in any
community to have an understanding of the situations of crime and their types as well
as ways through which they can be reduced if not eradicated.

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In Nigeria, absence of necessary modern technologies has undermined the capacity of

law enforcement agencies in the country to conduct effective analysis of crime. It is
very pathetic in this age of information and computer revolution to still have a police
institution without any viable computing systems to document types of crime in each
community, record of arrests made and the profile of arrested people.
Notwithstanding, the Nigeria Police still on regular basis analyses incidence of crime
through its reports, bulletin and information provided to the media and people in
general.

In several countries, civilians who are professionals in the field of security are usually
tasked to conduct crime analysis while some other countries leave the job of analysing
crime entirely in the hands of the police or any other relevant law enforcement
agencies. In most states in the United States, the police usually has special units for
crime analysis where officers with expert knowledge of the crime analysis are tasked
to analyse crime in their locality from time to time. In this unit, we shall beam our
searchlight on the subject- crime analysis, and we shall show its importance to crime
prevention and control.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Define the term crime analysis;

• Explain the importance of crime analysis; and

• Discuss the components of crime analysis.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Definition of Crime Analysis

Crime analysis can be defined as:

...a law enforcement function that involves systematic analysis for identifying and
analyzing patterns and trends in crime and disorder (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Crime_Analysis).

...the act of analyzing crime. More specifically, crime analysis is the breaking up of
acts committed in violation of laws into their parts to find out their nature and
reporting statements of these findings. The objective of most crime analysis is to find
meaningful information in vast amounts of data and disseminate this information to
officers and investigators in the field to assist in their efforts to apprehend criminals
and suppress criminal activity. Assessing crime through analysis also helps in crime
prevention efforts. Preventing crime costs less than trying to apprehend criminals after
crimes occur (Osborne & Wernicke, 2003: 1).

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...the individual or unit in a police department charged with processing data and
providing information that the agency can use to reduce, prevent, and solve crime,
disorder, and quality of life issues ( ://www.macrimeanalysts.com/articles/whatis
crimeanalysis.pdf

...a set of systematic, analytical processes directed at providing timely and pertinent
information relative to crime patterns and trend correlations to assist operational and
administrative personnel in planning the deployment of resources for the prevention
and suppression of criminal activities, aiding the investigative process, and increasing
apprehensions and the clearance of cases. Within this context, crime analysis supports
a number of department functions including patrol deployment, special operations and
tactical units, investigations, planning and research, crime prevention, and
administrative services (budgeting and program planning). (Gottlieb, Arenberg, and
Singh 1994, 13).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Define the term crime analysis.

3.2 Importance of Crime Analysis

i. Crime analysis can be conducted at various levels (tactical, operational, and

strategic). One of its purposes is to assist the law enforcement agents to study
crime report, reports concerning the biodata and profiles of those arrested, as
well as a comprehensive report of all cases of police interventions aimed at
identifying the patterns, frequency level, and trends of crimes in any given
community;

ii. Another purpose of crime analysis is to enable us as security operatives to

analyse incidents and types of crime in any given society with the aim of
identifying their causes and how frequently they occur. By doing this, we shall
be able to predict or forecast the future occurrences of these crimes. For
instance, in Nigeria, many security reports and findings have shown that
incidences of robbery, burglary and road accidents occur more in the last three
months of each year. Whenever we are approaching the last three months of the
year, the relevant security authorities usually educate the people about the
impeding risk that growing crime rate during that period portend to the
community at large.

Apart from raising the consciousness of the people about the growing incidence
of hazard and threat with the aim of increasing their preparedness towards crime
mitigation, the law enforcement agencies mobilise themselves to combat
potential growing crimes and hazards that often characterise the months of
October, November and December in Nigeria through effective deployment of
relevant tactical and strategic measures. As you may be aware, in Nigeria,

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during the “ember period” including September, October, November and

December, the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) authorities often mobilise
their men and officers to step-up their activities in ensuring strict compliance of
road users to the traffic rules with the aim of reducing avoidable accidents on
our roads.

iii. Crime analysis allows for statistical evaluation as well as drawing of data
queries or/and maps in analysing the patterns and trends in every location
within a country. With the availability of data queries, we shall be able to
identify particular criminal activities that are often experienced by each
community, so that we can develop mitigation techniques to arrest the
situation(s) of crime and criminality.

Through statistical evaluation, we determine numerically the trend and patterns

of crime in any society. For instance, statistics have shown that the incidents of
rape takes place in quick succession more during festive and celebration
periods than any other time. For instance, the incidence of rape is mostly
reported in Ijebu-Ode (of Ogun State, South Western Nigeria) during the
period of Oju de Oba celebration. The celebration event that is usually annually
observed among the indigenes of Ijebu-Ode draws people from far and near.
Due to the influx of people, situations of crime in the ancient town rapidly
increases and rape is usually one of the mostly reported cases of crime that
often characterise this festive period.

Perhaps, the incidents of rape increases the risk of spread of sexually

transmitted diseases including HIV-AIDS in the country, and it is therefore,
germane to increase the presence of law enforcement agents when such a big
fiesta is taking place. The use of statistics will also afford us the opportunity to
determine whether any particular crime(s) is increasing or reducing. We can
also use our findings to compare trends and patterns of crime(s) between two
communities or more.

iv. Crime analysis can also serve the purpose of enabling law enforcement agents
to provide valuable and vital information or report about criminal incidents in
various communities to the people but also assist law enforcement agents in
preparing criminal intelligence for court presentations aimed at prosecuting
offenders.

v. Crime analysis is very essential in determining the socio-demographics of

crime. It affords us the opportunity of having a knowledge about social and
demographic causes and graphical interpretation of crime in any given locality
or society or within the jurisdiction of respective security agencies (Boba, 2005:
6–7).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

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Explain the importance of Crime Analysis.

3.3 Components of Crime Analysis

In crime analysis, security professionals and law enforcement agents apply various
tools that are basic components of crime analysis process, and these include:

3.3.1 Data Mining

Data mining is an essential tool of crime analysis. It can be described as:

...the process of extracting patterns from data. As more data is gathered, with
the amount of data doubling..., data mining is becoming an increasingly
important tool to transform this data into information. It is commonly used in a
wide range of profiling practices, such as marketing, surveillance, fraud
detection, and scientific discovery (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining).

Data mining is usually employed in the analysis of crime to have a better

understanding of the incidence of crime through the study of pattern and trends
of crime with the use of intelligence and information gathered from different
sources. In the following unit, we shall be shedding more light on the subject-
data mining and its relevance to crime detection and mitigation.

3.3.2 Crime Mapping

Crime mapping is another vital tool being employed by security experts or law
enforcement agents to analyse crime in any given community. Crime mapping
can be defined as a method:

...used by analysts in law enforcement agencies to map, visualize, and analyze

crime incident patterns. It is a key component of crime analyse (Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.).

It can also be defined as:

...the direct application that comes from considering the inherent geography in
crime (://www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk/crime_mapping/index.php).

Crime mapping assists us as security practitioners to have a clearer picture on

the patterns and trends of crime in any community with the aim of arrival at
decisions that are effective in developing strategies and mitigation interventions
for crime control.

3.3.2.1 Elements of Crime mapping

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Crime mapping is also essential to tactical analysis necessary for crime

forecasting and geographic profiling. In forecasting crime, we predict the
occurrence of a particular crime type or another in any given place through the
available data we have been able to gather through the process of crime
mapping.

For instance, we can forecast that there is high probability that most of the
youths used for political thuggery who are equipped with dangerous weapons
by some political elite will use the weapons to commit different types of crime
in the society, and if their nefarious activities and those of their patrons are not
effectively checked, they can become menace to the society at large. It is no
news in Nigeria that many former political thugs, after being dumped by their
patrons, are using the weapons given to them by those patrons to perpetrate
various forms of crime including armed robbery and kidnapping.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a very vital component of crime

mapping, which assist crime analysts to locate hot spots or locations where
particular crime(s) often take place (Chainey & Ratcliffe, 2005). In crime
mapping, we may deploy GIS to develop datasets like census demographics
that are essential to locating spots where specific crimes are frequently
experienced. With the use of GIS in crime mapping, security practitioners or
law enforcement agents do identify where emergency operations and
interventions are most needed. The elements of crime mapping include the
following:

i. The use of sophisticated information gathering systems for emergency response :

In advanced countries, the law enforcement agencies especially the Police are
equipped with comprehensive gazetteers of addresses and locations through
computer mapping. The application of computer mapping assists law
enforcement agents to identify where an emergency response of the security
officers is being sought. Apart from making it easier for the emergency security
officers to identify the location that experiences attack or security threat, it also
enhances the capacity of the law enforcement agents to prepare against any
geographic impediments that topography of the affected area may pose to their
intervention.

For instance, in many poorly planned urban centres in Nigeria, the Fire Fighters
often encounter mammoth challenge whenever they are responding to
emergency call resulting from an outbreak of inferno in any location. It is not all
the time that these fire fighters intervene too late to combat the inferno but
many of these affected places impede easy access due to the disgusting way
people put up their structures such that the fire fighting vehicles will find it
extremely difficult to reach the affected place.

However, a visit to Ooje and Bere in the ancient city of Ibadan (Oyo State,
Nigeria) will marvel any security-conscious person(s) owing to very abnormal

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way buildings were erected such that if there is any outbreak of fire in a house,
there is high possibility that the inferno will spread to some other houses.
Modern technology has enhanced the capacity of most communities in the
world towards crime mitigation. For instance, the introduction of mobile
computing with global positioning system (GPS) technologies has made it very
easy for any community to detect any incidence of vandalism;

ii. Information Systems and Crime Alert : Resulting from the inability of the law
enforcement agents especially the Police to have enough personnel that will
cover all nooks and crannies of any community or country at all time, the use
of information technology is overlooked. In many developing countries like
Nigeria, the number of police personnel is very inadequate to provide any
meaningful security to the country as a whole. In addition, the police personnel
are poorly motivated and trained, as they have become pawns in the hands of
corrupt political elite. It is not surprising that many policemen and officers
have been accused to be anti-people and unprofessional, many of whom have
forgotten that their main objective is to protect the lives and property of the
masses rather than only the rich men.

In as much as police patrol cannot cover everywhere at the same time, the use
of the COMPSTAT process using crime mapping can be very helpful to the
Police to have a better understanding and adequate information about
happenings on the streets. This will also assist them to identify where the police
authorities can mobilise the presence of their men for crime prevention and
mitigation;

iii. Identification of Crime hotspots: The use of crime mapping through installation
of security gadgets like Closed Circuit Televisions (CCTVs) and Secret
Cameras can also be strategically helpful in combating criminal activities in any
community. The use of CCTVs or secret cameras can help us to monitor the
activities and movement of people in any location, and enable us to have the
opportunity of detecting any occurrence of crime as well as the location where
any criminal activity is taking place with the aim of improving our capacity to
respond timely and adequately in arresting the culprits or offenders;

iv. Pattern Analysis: Crime mapping enables us to have a clearer picture of the
patterns of criminal activities that are experienced in our local community.
Thus, through it, we have a better understanding of crime distribution, and with
the use of crime maps and other information on housing, demography etc, we
shall be able to create a strategic framework to prevent or/and mitigate crime in
our neighbourhoods;

v. Geographic Profiling: In crime mapping, the application of geographic

profiling enables the law enforcement agents to identify the most probable
residential locations that (notorious) criminals live. In major cities of Nigeria,
there are some locations that are marked as the havens of dangerous criminals

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in the country, and law enforcement agents patrol comb those areas from time
to time. In Lagos, places like Akala in Mushin, Ajegunle, Okokomaiko. Iba,
Ijora-Badia etc are mapped by law enforcement agents as some of the most
probable places where most criminals live;

vi. Assessing the impact of existing crime reduction approaches: Crime mapping
can also help us to evaluate the impact of various crime mitigation techniques
we have put in place to combat incidence of crime. It will enable us to identify
those of such measures that have actually worked to reduce or curb the
incidence of crime (as well as which types of crime they have worked to
mitigate) and those other crime reduction measures that have failed to work;
and

vii. The use of maps to communicate to the Public on crime situations : In some
advanced countries like the United Kingdom, maps are used in form of media
to inform the people about crime situations and crime types that exist in their
various places through crime statistics that is transmitted on the internet. This
will assist the people to have up-to-date reports concerning amount criminal
incidents being recorded in their localities and elsewhere. It will afford the
opportunity to know if the criminal activities they experience in their areas are
increasing or reducing.

3.3.3 Statistics

Statistics is another component of crime analysis. It is a vital tool of numerically

determining the patterns and trends of crime in any community or in comparing the
crime situations between two or more communities. Meanwhile, let us quickly define
the term statistics but before we undergo the conceptual task, it is important to note
that statistics can also be described as an academic discipline rather than only as a set
of methods for scientific inquiry and evaluation of data. Here, we refer to statistics as
a method through which we analyse crime. Thus, statistics can be described as:

...application of methods to collect, analyze and interpret data. Modern statistical

methods involve the design and analysis of experiments and surveys, the
quantification of biological, social and scientific phenomenon and the application of
statistical principles to understand more about the world around us. Since data are
used in most areas of human endeavour, the theory and methods of modern statistics
have been applied to a wide variety of fields (://statistics.unl.edu/whatis.shtml).

In crime analysis, statistics plays a very important role. It enables security

practitioners to put observable crime data to scientific testing through the processes of
data collection, analysis and interpretation with a view to solving any problem of
crime or criminal investigation. A crime analyst is supposed a good knowledge of
statistics to be able to function well professionally. Apart from problem-solving
objectives, the use of statistics in crime analysis assists the public to know the crime

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situations in their various domains as well as knowing the major threats to their
security.

As reiterated earlier, some countries like the UK ensure that people have access to
statistical details of crime situations in their local environments, which the law
enforcement agents often place on the internet. Through this information, people will
be able to know if crime is actually increasing or reducing as well as know types of
major crime that frequently occur in their neighbourhood. In having access to all this
information, the level of preparedness of the people towards the mitigation of such
crimes will be improved. Similarly, by identifying the level of vulnerability of any
community to any crimes, it will afford the law enforcement agents the opportunity to
prepare themselves towards capacity building for crime mitigation.

3.3.4 Critical Thinking

Critical thinking is an essential component of crime analysis. The subject of criminal

investigation and other types of investigation require that security practitioners or law
enforcement agents need to carefully interpret the information he/she has gathered for
his/her investigation. Here, we consider the logic in response of the suspect in the
course of interrogation, evidence sources or materials, contextualisation of issues,
observable facts, and consistency of the answers given by the suspects during
interrogation session(s) before we come to our judgement about the innocence or
culpability of the suspect(s) or persons under investigation in connection with a crime
perpetrated.

Now, how do you define the term critical thinking? The available definitions of
critical thinking as a concept are many but we shall be considering some of these
definitions in our conceptual description of the term. Therefore, critical thinking can
be described as:

...skilled, active, interpretation and evaluation of observations, communications,

information, and argumentation (Fisher & Scriven, 1997: 20).

Critical thinking is assumed to be the purposeful and reflective judgement about what
to believe or what to do in response to observation, experience, verbal or written
expressions, or arguments. Critical thinking may involve determining the meaning and
significance of what is observed or expressed, or, concerning a given inference or
argument, determining whether there is adequate justification to accept the conclusion
as true (://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_thinking).

In security profession we face huge challenge from attempting to make rational and
logical conclusions and decisions about issues and subjects of investigation. It is
incumbent on every conscientious security practitioner or law enforcement to validate
the information at his/her disposal when carrying-out a criminal investigation, so that
innocent persons will not be punished. Many people have accused the Nigeria Police
of poor credentials particularly in the area of investigation. The reason is not far-

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fetched, most policemen and officers lack good knowledge of critical thinking, which
is an important element of crime analysis.

Many times, law enforcement agents are accused of acting the scripts of the plaintiffs
without verifying the reliability of the accusations levelled against the suspects before
they conclude on the suspects’ culpability of the alleged crime. For instance, there was
a case of a man who reported to the police that he was suspecting that his younger
brother had become a criminal owing to the type of friends he was keeping. Swiftly,
the police acted on the information given to it and a search was conducted on the
suspect’s premise. In the process, some guns were found, and consequently the suspect
and his friends were arrested.

Sadly, rather than employing critical thinking in the analysis of the alleged crime, the
suspects were shot dead by the police. Here, the concerned policemen apart from
disobeying the law which says a suspect cannot be said to be guilty of a crime (an
offence) until proved to be guilty by the competent court, but also failed to apply
critical thinking in analysing the alleged crime. By using critical thinking, they should
have carefully put the information supplied to them by the chief suspect’s elder brother
into analytic and logic validation to determine the accuracy, credibility and precision
of the allegation (information) as well as its relevance to truth before coming into
judgement on whether the accused were actually culpable of armed robbery or it was a
case of a set-up. Due to non-deployment of critical thinking by law enforcement
agents, many innocent people have hastily been made to undergo some punishment for
the crimes they did not actually commit.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

Discuss the components of crime analysis.

4.0 CONCLUSION

Crime analysis remains a vital tool of security management. It helps law enforcement
agents especially the police to have a good understanding and knowledge of the
patterns and trends of crime within their jurisdiction. It also assists the law
enforcement agents to mobilise their resources more productively for effective crime
management and enhances their capacity in identifying and arresting the crime
suspects. In recent time, the use of spatial data analysis is gaining growing relevance in
crime mapping, assisting the law enforcement agents to study crime data with a view
to have a greater understanding of why crime is occurring rather than focusing only on
where crime occurs.

By and large, crime mapping is an essential component of crime analysis, as it can also
be applied for research purposes. It can assist us to have a greater knowledge of the
patterns of incarceration and recidivism, target resources and programmes, crime
prevention evaluation etc. The other components of crime analysis including data
mining, statistics and critical thinking are also germane not only to the analysis of

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crime situations but also to vulnerability and capacity assessment through which we
can develop strategies and measures towards crime prevention and reduction.

5.0 SUMMARY

In this unit, our subject of discourse was crime analysis and how it can contribute to
the prevention and mitigation of crime. We began our lesson by explain the conceptual
meaning of the term crime analysis. Thereafter, we focussed on the importance of
crime to crime prevention and mitigation. The third area of inquiry was the explanation
of the basic components of crime analysis including data mining, crime mapping (and
its elements), statistics and critical thinking.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Define crime analysis and explain any four its components.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

Boba, R. (2005). Crime Analysis and Crime Mapping. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
Publications.

Chainey, S. Ratcliffe, J. (2005). GIS and Crime Mapping. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN:
0470860987.

Fisher, A. & Scriven, M. (1997). Critical Thinking: Its Definition and Assessment.
Norwich: : Center for Research in Critical Thinking.

Gottlieb, S.L., Arenberg, S., and Singh, R. (1994). Crime Analysis: From First Report
to Final Arrest. Montclair, CA: Alpha Publishing.

Osborne, D. & Wernicke, S. (2003). Introduction to Crime Analysis: Basic Resources

for Criminal Justice Practice. New York: The Haworth Press, Inc.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_Analysis. Retrieved on 3 October, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_mapping. Retrieved on 3 October, 2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining. Retrieved on 28 September, 2009.

://statistics.unl.edu/whatis.shtml. Retrieved on 5 October, 2009.

://www.jdi.ucl.ac.uk/crime_mapping/index.php. Retrieved on 5 October, 2009.

://www.macrimeanalysts.com/articles/whatiscrimeanalysis.pdf. Retrieved on 9
October, 2009.

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://www.tempe.gov/CAU/about_ca.htm. Retrieved on 4 October, 2009.

UNIT 5

APPLYING DATA MINING AND AUTOMATED DATA ANALYSIS FOR

CRIME MANAGEMENT

CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction
2.0 Objectives
3.0 Main Body
3.1 Meaning of Data Mining
3.2 Meaning of Automated Data Analysis
3.3 Application Processes for Data Mining and Automated Data Analysis
4.0 Conclusion
5.0 S u m mar y
6.0 Tutor-Marked Assignment
7.0 References / Further Reading

1.0 INTRODUCTION

In this unit, we shall beam our search light on the subject, data mining and automated
analysis in furtherance of our study on basic security tools and applications. These
concepts are relatively new in security studies and practice. They are inter-related and
complementary because they are two sides of the same coin. Data mining and
automated data analysis have continued to attract robust acceptance and appreciation
not only among security practitioners but also corporations or commercial ventures
that often use these tools to improve their businesses. You will find this unit
intellectually rewarding. Meanwhile, in the following segment of this unit, we shall
quickly go through the various tasks we hope to accomplish in this unit.

2.0 OBJECTIVES

At the end of this unit, you should be able to:

• Explain the meaning of data mining;

• Describe automated data analysis; and

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• Discuss the application processes for data mining and automated data analysis.

3.0 MAIN BODY

3.1 Meaning of Data Mining

As earlier stated in the introductory section of this unit, data mining and automated
data analysis are inter-related as the two of them play complementary roles in
intelligence reporting as well as in security investigation. No doubt, they are very
effective tools and applications in crime prevention and detection. They can help to
unravel secrets in organised crimes like terrorism, assassination, computer intrusion,
theft, financial fraud, armed robbery, electoral malpractices, money laundering,
among others.

These two concepts can be less effective or absolutely defective, if we fail to

understand effectively their guidelines and controls. It is therefore advisable for
security professionals and policy makers to always “....acquire an understanding of
data mining and automated data analysis tools so that they can craft policy that
encourages responsible use and sets parameters for that use” (DeRosa, 2004: v).

At this juncture, let us subject the concepts to conceptual illumination, but in this
segment, we shall begin with data mining. So, what is data mining? It is worthy to note
that data mining is also known as Knowledge-Discovery in Databases (KDD) (see
://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-data-mining.htm). One of the major features of Social
Sciences and other related fields is the absence of universal definition of any term
among scholars. Social scientists define concepts not only according to their respective
disciples but also from individual choice of perspectives. For this reason, we shall
consider different definitions of the term data mining.

Data mining (sometimes called data or knowledge discovery) is the process of

analyzing data from different perspectives and summarizing it into useful information

...Data mining software is one of a number of analytical tools for analyzing data. It
allows users to analyze data from many different dimensions or angles, categorize it,
and summarize the relationships identified. Technically, data mining is the process of
finding correlations or patterns among dozens of fields in large relational databases
(://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/jason.frand/teacher/technologies/palace/datam
ining.htm).

Data mining can also be described as:

...the process of extracting patterns from data. As more data is gathered, with the
amount of data doubling..., data mining is becoming an increasingly important tool to
transform this data into information. It is commonly used in a wide range of profiling

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practice, such as marketing, surveillance, fraud detection and scientific discovery

(://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining).

Data mining can also make use of:

...automated statistical analysis techniques..., discovering new trends and patterns of

behavior that previously went unnoticed. Once they've uncovered this vital
intelligence, it can be used in a predictive manner for a variety of applications (
://databases.about.com/od/datamining/a/datamining.htm)

We can also contend that:

Data mining is usually defined as searching, analyzing and sifting through large
amounts of data to find relationships, patterns, or any significant statistical
correlations. With the advent of computers, large databases and the internet, it is
easier than ever to collect millions, billions and even trillions of pieces of data that can
then be systematically analyzed to help look for relationships and to seek solutions to
difficult problems (://www.tech-faq.com/data-mining.shtml)

Data mining is also an application that:

...uses a relatively large amount of computing power operating on a large set of data
to determine regularities and connections between data points. Algorithms that
employ techniques from statistics, machine learning and pattern recognition are used
to search large databases automatically (://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-data-
mining.htm).

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What is data-mining?

3.2 Meaning of Automated Data Analysis

Automated data analysis can be described as a tool designed to:

...find previously unknown knowledge through links, associations, and patterns in data
(DeRosa, 2004: 3; Jensen, 2003).

Additionally, automated data analysis involves:

...the use of large databases containing identifying information. It assists in the

important task of accurate identification (DeRosa, 2004: 6).

Automated data analysis can be applied in two ways, which include:

The use of subject-based queries; and

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Threats The use of pattern-based queries.

Subject-based queries: In subject-based queries, we begin data analysis with a

particular and known subject, and continue the process by searching for more
information about the subject. In this case, the subject can be a crime suspect, a
religious leader, a security officer, a suspect at large, a bank official, a politician, to
mention a few. In seeking to get more information about the subject, then we may
decide to probe into his/her various contacts or other people, places, even telephone
or/and communication facilities and other things that can assist us in our investigation,
especially as it involves getting clues that can help us unravel some facts about the
subject.

A subject-based query assists us in our analysis of data to have more information about
the subject and gives us a clearer picture of what the subject is up-to especially as it
concerns his/her activities. This opportunity is attained through provision of (useful)
link between the subject and other elements of our investigative scrutiny. Again, the
beauty about this model is that it affords us an opportunity to identify other subjects
that we will need to include in our investigation. One vital element of the subject-based
query is link analysis. It helps to draw a connection between the subject and other
subjects or places and things we will need to arriving at a decision in our investigation
and analysis. Link analysis is popular among public security practitioners like the
Police and intelligence agencies.

Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the application of subject-based queries is very inadequate

and ineffective because of the poor information infrastructure in public security
sector. It is absolutely ridiculous in a country like Nigeria to have a police institution
that does not have any computing system network that connects all its various
stations and posts, area offices and state commands, as well as zonal/regional offices
to the headquarters for proper record keeping of their activities and crime files. The
existence of a central information system will enable all its offices to access and
make informative contributions to the database on suspects-profiling, prompt crime
situation reporting, staff information and auditing, intelligence gathering and sharing,
among others.

However, lack of technological innovation has really undermined the capacity of the
police to perform its functions in Nigeria, a situation which has attracted the decision
of most state governors in the country to call for the introduction of Joint Task Force
(patrol team consisting of the police and men of the armed forces). Painfully, this is an
indictment on the police authorities, for the failure of the police to live up to its
responsibilities.

Also, many people have claimed that several of the dismissed policemen have
continued to find their ways back into the force without being detected by police
authorities. For instance, a dismissed policeman might have been previously recruited
in Lagos, and after his dismissal, he may proceed to Ondo state in an effort to be
recruited into the Police again. The question that comes to one’s mind here is- if the

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Nigeria Police fails to keep proper records of its personnel, how can it have adequate
record of crime suspects? That means the police can hardly identify who is or not a
first time offender except the suspect is well known by the officer in charge of the
investigation.

Coming back to the subject matter, subject-based queries are potentially useful as
forms of inquiries that characterise intelligence and law enforcement practice, which
involve conducting a further search on the activities and relationships of the subject
(someone under investigation) with other people. In the course of investigation, we
may identify other people whose presence will be required to provide us a
breakthrough and opportunity to have a successful investigation of the subject.

On the other hand, pattern-based queries involve conducting our investigation by

moving from unknown to known. Here, we don’t actually have any subject on our
minds but through pattern of activity, we may decide to probe further into the activity
that we suspect may constitute act of criminality or a threat to security. For instance,
we may detect that through bank money transfers, some activities involving
importation of expensive goods into the country are noticed.

And if this same pattern of activity is noticed to be taking place from time to time,
then, we can beam our searchlight to know the persons involved in such transactions.
After identifying the persons, we may probe further to know if the subjects have strong
and genuine businesses to have such big money they often transfer to purchase
expensive goods abroad. Then, our pattern-based queries will change to subject-based
queries because through the pattern of activity, we have identified some persons who
were not previously on our mind to be subjected to further scrutiny.

Thereafter, the suspected persons will become our subjects (those we investigate) and
we conduct further search on their activities and relationships. After a thorough search
and analysis, we may find out that the suspected persons are fronting for some public
office holders who embezzle public funds and use it for their personal aggrandisement.
Knowing that they cannot lodge such money into their private accounts, corrupt
leaders tend to use some unsuspected persons to front for them through whom they use
the money for all sorts of investment or property acquisitions.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

How will you describe automated data-mining?

What are the two basic ways through which automated data analysis can be applied?

3.3 Application Processes for Data-Mining and Automated Data Analysis

Data-mining and automated data analysis are very important tools of security threat
management as well as intelligence collection and analysis. Meanwhile, they require
proper application and administration of various processes pertaining to their usage. It
is therefore essential to have proper understanding of these processes in order to avoid

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making errors and information abuse. It is against this background that we shall be
explaining in this segment, the steps to be taken in the effective usage of these two
concepts: data mining and automated data analysis.

a) Collection and Processing of Data : Collecting relevant data and useful

information is a very big task. The reason is that it is more difficult to identify
information useful for our task than the challenges we may encounter in the
collection of data. It is always advisable to have in our minds before we set out
for the gathering of data, what we seek to achieve in our analysis, so that we
will be able to conclude appropriately well on the kind of information that will
be useful to achieve the purpose of our investigation.

There is no doubt that innovations in technology have made it easy to mine

data (see Mostashari, 2003). Introduction of computing systems has really
impacted positively on the task of data mining. Presently, through computer,
we can develop a large database through which we can also create a single
database for our data mining. The process is known as data warehouse or data
mart. We can also conduct our data mining by using a variety of database. For
instance, if we are investigating a political office-holder accused of corruption,
we may collate information through several means like conducting a search on
all his/her official transactions and his/her contacts and relationships as well as
financial transactions made by those with whom the suspect has one
relationship or the other especially his/her family members.

Also, we can conduct a search on the private companies owned by the suspect
including their various business and financial transactions as well as the
activities of their respective management among others. If we consider the
foregoing example, then data mining process is a difficult task that may involve
the use of different databases in the collection of the needed information. After
collating the information considered useful for our analysis, it is important to
consider the standardisation and cleansing of the collected data so that we can
identify which among the data that can be most useful to our analysis task. By
doing this, we shall be avoiding misuse of information.

According to DeRosa (2004: 10), the last step in this process involves
“transforming the data to make them useful”. This step is usually known as
“data aggregation”. It enables us to remove unimportant or unusable data by
cleaning them, and the data are standardised for accuracy in our searches. By
following these steps, we would reduce data errors that may mar our analysis
especially errors like false positives and false negatives.

False positives errors are those errors that bother on the possibility of
wrongfully labelling an innocent person as a crime suspect/criminal due to
mistakes in the result of our automated data analysis. This error is usually
associated with collection of wrong data or misapplication of data through
imperfect search models (see DeRosa, 2004: 10). It will be improper to accuse

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innocent persons because they have relationship at one time or the other with
any crime suspects or convicts due to inaccurate data mining or defective
automated data analysis procedure.

On the other hand, in computer security, when a spam email is wrongly

classified as non-spam email, we can therefore conclude that a false negative
error has been committed (see ://www.cgisecurity.com/questions/false
negative.shtml). Another example is if the result of our automated data analysis
confirms a real crime suspect not culpable, meaning that our investigation effort
is entirely faulty due to wrong check and defective data mining process and/or
wrong procedure of analysis;

b) Finding Search Models: In carrying-out our data analysis, we need a search

model. For instance, if we want to use pattern-based searching, it will be
cumbersome to get perfect models that help us to achieve good results in our
automated data analysis. Meanwhile, we can adopt a “bottom up” approach,
using data mining to develop a model such that we search for anomalies or
patterns that surround a behaviour or activity. We can also use “top-down
approach” in analysing our data by beginning the process of analysis with a
hypothesis “...about the model and determining whether it exists in data”
(DeRosa, 2004: 11). By and large, models developed must be predictive and
relevant to investigation. We should avoid running into the problem of data-
dredging, resulting from models that are poorly designed; and

c) Decision making : The decision making process is also very significant in the
application of data-mining and automated data analysis. It is the climax of the
data-mining and automated data analysis. Decision making comes after
exploring other processes such as gathering of data, to carrying-out of searches,
through interpretation of results to making decisions on the most effectively
ways to utilise the results of our analysis. The quality of the decision we make
after our automated analysis largely determines the amount of success that we
will likely record in the course of our investigation.

SELF ASSESSMENT EXERCISE

What are the steps to the application of data-mining and automated data analysis?

4.0 CONCLUSION

Advancing effective security management and threat mitigation is an enormous task,

which often demands adequate use of information technology and systemised
information gathering tools or techniques. Information is very vital to the security
sector, without which security practitioners will be lackadaisical and highly
incapacitated in the discharge of their duties.

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It is not a surprise that in many developed countries like the US and Britain, the
government and security sector continues to undergo reforms, appreciating the
strategic importance of information to the operations of various security agencies.
Information plays a great role in hazard management, intelligence collection and
analysis, threat mitigation, counter-terrorism, as well as overall security planning and
management.

If the importance of information in security management cannot be over-emphasised,

therefore, the use of data-mining and automated data analysis is very significant and
useful to securitisation. The relevance of these tools has been evident in the way they
have continued to enjoy growing acceptance among security practitioners in most
developed countries of the world and elsewhere. These tools are powerful not only in
security management and threat mitigation but they are used by several commercial
institutions or corporations to improve their businesses. It is very essential to promote
the use of the tools in our various places of work for efficiency and optimal
performance through which we can easily achieve the overall objectives of our
organisations.

5 . 0 S U M MA RY

In this unit, our study focused on the conceptual definition of data-mining, and we also
described the meaning of automated data analysis. The third and the last area of
inquiry was the list of processes that we undertake in the application of data-mining
and automated data analysis to crime management.

6.0 TUTOR-MARKED ASSIGNMENT

Define data-mining and automated data analysis; and

Explain the basic processes to the application of data-mining and automated data
analysis.

7.0 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING

DeRosa, M. (2004). Data Mining and Data Analysis for Counterterrorism. CSIS
Report. Washington D.C. Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Mostashari, F. (2003). Syndromic Surveillance in Practice: New York City. Paper

Presentation at CSIS Data Mining Roundtable. Washington D.C: Centre for Strategic
and International Studies (CSIS). October 9.

://databases.about.com/od/datamining/a/datamining.htm. Retrieved on 29 August,

2009.

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining. Retrieved on 29 August, 2009.

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://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/jason.frand/teacher/technologies/palace/data
mining.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

://www.cgisecurity.com/questions/falsenegative.shtml. Retrieved on 9 August, 2009.

://www.tech-faq.com/data-mining.shtml. Retrieved on 29 August, 2009.

://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-data-mining.htm. Retrieved on 30 August, 2009.

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