Software AI
Software AI
com
05 August 2024
Software - AI
Al kesh Shah
Bra d Sills Koji Ikeda, CFA Mi cha el J. Funk
Hea d of US Software
La rge Ca p Software SMID Ca p Software SMID Ca p Software
Gl obal Research
bra [email protected] koji [email protected] mi [email protected]
a l [email protected]
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+1 646 855 1556
Ca rl y Li u George McGreehan
ca rl y.l [email protected] [email protected]
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factorin making their investment decision.Refer toimportant disclosures on page 59-64. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 46-57.
• 2 months: ChatGPT time to reach 100mn users (vs Twitter: 5.4 yrs)
2
7 AI Takeaways
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Computer processing power has increased exponentially
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AI Isn’t New: How did we get here?
1940s 1980s
AI systems leveraged for codebreaking Expert Systems / Fuzzy Control Systems
1950s 1990-2011
Computing Machinery and Intelligence (Turing Test) IBM Deep Blue (Garry Kasparov)
Computer Leasing Cost: ~$200k/month IBM Watson (Ken Jennings)
1960s 2010s
Public-side investment and use Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
First chatbot (ELIZA), First Industrial Robot (Unimate) Transformers
Private investment acceleration
1970s 2020s
AI Winter Models advance/Consumer applications emerge
“…it might be simpler and more economical for heavy users of Russian translations
to learn to read the documents in the original language...flawless and polished
translation for a user-limited readership is wasteful of both time and money.”
–Automatic Language Processing Advisory Committee (ALPAC) report, 1966
“I think a lot of people don’t understand how deep AI already is in so many things.”
–Mark Benioff, Salesforce co-founder and CEO, Jan’17
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
5
Disruptive tech cycles drive labor productivity
Labor productivity hit new highs after plateauing for 15 yrs post-GFC / ZIRP
S&P 500 T12M revenue per employee ($mn, adjusted for CPI)
6
Newest AI wave (GenAI) builds on decades of advances
AI may be as transformative as past disruptive tech like the telephone, automobile, PC and internet
…but the AI newest models remain immature and applications are only just beginning to emerge
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Tech disruption is often underestimated
Disruptive innovation that doesn’t produce naysayers is likely not that disruptive or innovative
“Internet may be just a passing fad…”
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates" (2005), Bloomberg
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
10
Just another middleman…
25% of the companies that emerged during the dot com bubble are the blue-chip companies of today
“The idea that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has pioneered a new business paradigm is silly.”
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The newest AI wave emerged only 18 months ago
AI hype cycle – past the peak of inflated expectations and on to the trough of disillusionment
The trough of disillusionment may have peaked in 4Q23 as S&P earnings call “AI” mentions dipped relative to
12
25-30 years for tech to reach mainstream adoption
Commercially
Radio invented: 1890 available: 1920
TCP standardized
Internet: 1995
protocol: 1983
13
What’s new over the last 25 yrs? Plenty
Airbnb Oura
Amazon Prime Reddit
Android SnapChat
App Store SpaceX
Bitcoin Spotify
Emojis Tesla
Facebook TikTok
Fitbit Tinder
Gmail Uber
Instagram Wikipedia
iPhone WhatsApp
LinkedIn X
Netflix YouTube 14
Better than humans at some tasks – and still improving
AI capabilities have improved rapidly over just the last several years
Benchmark/test scores of GenAI applications relative to human and expert intelligence/performance
Source: MMLU (massive multitask language understanding) benchmark measures knowledge acquired during pretraining by evaluating models in various settings across 57 tasks (math, history, coding, law).
15
Increased Productivity and Efficiency
Microsoft launched its Copilot AI app following a significant investment in OpenAI
Copilot enables diverse use cases through plug-ins for Microsoft 365 (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, Teams)
Microsoft Copilot
10 hours/month saved by best users
70% said they were more productive
29% were faster at specific tasks (searching, writing, summarizing)
Github Copilot
Launched Jun’22
1.8mn subs
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MSFT AI – User Growth & Monetization
Microsoft Copilot could drive productivity gains for a variety of end users and use cases
We estimate Microsoft Office 365 Copilot users could reach 12.6mn users (+162% y/y) by FY25E (Jun’25)
# of Organizations Onboarded (in thousands)
Azure & Azure OpenAI 300
Azure OpenAI GitHub Copilot Enterprise
Launch: Jan’23 Copilot Power Platform Copilot Studio
250
Usage: 53k+ customers // Rev: $5.8bn+ run-rate Copilot Sales
End Users/Use Cases: Developers & Product Teams 200
Medicine
• Image analysis, detection and diagnosis, treatment protocols, drug discovery
Transportation
• Autonomous vehicles, emergency brake systems, driver assistance
Industry
• Factory/inventory/supply chain optimization, quality control, customer feedback analysis
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Enterprise AI Use Cases: An Expanding Ecosystem
Education/Connecting
• Personalized plans, tutoring, language learning, language translation, AR/VR
Data Science/Automation
• Code generation, meeting summaries, legal analysis, app builders, simulations
Arts
• Music and visual art generation, voice synthesis
19
AI/Data Analytics: Top CIO IT Priorities for 2024
What are your company’s priorities for your budget? (Select top 5)
Data Analytics is the top priority with Cloud Communications and Video Conferencing a close second
20
AI Software market expected to grow rapidly
21
Democratization of AI Access
Pick & Shovel beneficiaries, many of which provide solutions across the tech stack, have emerged
The AI Tech Stack – from Infrastructure to Applications
23
Nvidia is just the tip of the iceberg
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AI-native companies to co-exist with tech incumbents
Tech incumbents embed AI features in products, but AI-native companies create new businesses
New entrants look to co-exist with large tech companies
25
AI “dot com” startups emerge across every industry
Leaner AI startups may drive the creation of new businesses, in contrast to new features
New AI-native companies are likely to emerge and poorly positioned companies will exit
26
AI Disruption Potential – 3 Factors
High Value
Lawyers, Doctors, Accountants, Coders
High Volume
Customer Service Agents, Medical Scribes, Translators
Shortages
Health Workers/Nurses, Leisure/Hospitality Workers
27
Tech incumbents launch AI products/services
Baidu ERNIE: Model supports enterprise app development & bot enables ChatGPT-like capabilities
Baidu’s ERNIE bot reached over 200mn users as of Apr’24, +100% vs Dec’23
Usage:
• 200mn sign-ups
• 200mn prompts/day
Enterprise Clients: 85k
28
AI-natives may cannibalize the Services industry
29
AI-native startups launch AI products/services too
30
Vertical AI apps are emerging rapidly
Harvey’s industry-specific legal bot optimizes workflows with a focus on accuracy, security, privacy
Harvey had $30mn in annual recurring revenue (ARR) as of Jul’24, +200% vs Dec’23
“Harvey’s AI solution marks a huge shift in the way that tax and
legal services will be delivered and consumed across the industry.”
–Carol Stubbings, PwC Global Tax & Legal Services, Dec’23
Source: BofA Global Research, Reuters, Forbes
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
31
Impossible to imagine the AI capabilities to come
AI startups may capture market share within the middleware and application layers…
…but are unlikely to compete with larger tech companies within the infrastructure and platform layers
32
Hippocratic’s Polaris – Specialized healthcare bot
Healthcare Bot
Launch: 2023
Usage: Testing: 5k nurses/500 physicians
Revenue: N/A
33
Different Applications – Different Models
Generalized and industry-specific AI apps may become ubiquitous, but cost savings and the ability
to reallocate workers to higher-value tasks are beneficial even if realized by competitors.
Specialized AI apps will be as performative and differentiated as the data on which they are trained.
Companies with large proprietary datasets may see outsized AI advantages relative to smaller and
less diversified peers that use AI tools trained on publicly-available data.
1 Industry-specific AI apps enable new revenue streams but to a lesser extent than specialized ones BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
34
AI Products in ’24: ROI Determination > Adoption
Enterprise AI applications remain early in the adoption cycle as functionality improves and expands
AI applications for efficiencies and productivity
35
Generalized AI Applications: Efficiencies & Productivity
Professional and creative pursuits of the future may have little resemblance to how they look today
OpenAI’s Sora apps enables diverse marketing, advertising and entertainment use cases
OpenAI
Sora provides an AI-driven text-to-video generation tool
Anyone can be a creator – generate a hyper-realistic video instantly by entering simple text
Use cases are beginning to emerge but are only a preview of what’s to come
Marketing, advertising, film, digital art and likely much more…
Prompt: “Several giant wooly mammoths Prompt: “Animated scene features a close-up of a
approach treading through a snowy meadow, short fluffy monster kneeling beside a melting red
their long wooly fur lightly blows in the wind as candle. The art style is 3D and realistic, with a
they walk…” focus on lighting…”
Design
Prompt: Design a course syllabus for AI 101 &
Provide an example of how to structure
a professional resume
Knowledge Discovery
Prompt: Summarize the Bitcoin whitepaper in 3 sentences
Content Creation
Prompt: Write an intro for an AI presentation
Translation
Prompt: Translate OpenAI’s mission statement to Spanish
AI-powered imagery and web scraping help determine the condition of a roof and identify if
nearby hazards exist
39
Specialized AI Apps: Wealth Management
Morgan Stanley launched an AI app for its FAs to drive efficiencies, productivity and revenue
Morgan Stanley’s AI chatbot enables financial advisors to find specific content and generate investment ideas
for clients, among other use cases
Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors
Morgan Stanley’s AI chatbot incorporates proprietary data and enables FAs to:
• Find specific content across thousands of research reports
• Create meeting summaries and draft emails with follow-ups
• Generate investment ideas for specific clients
• Drive client engagement and identify prospective clients
Klarna
Klarna’s AI assistant expands functionality vs traditional bots
The e-commerce service-provider expects its AI assistant to boost ’24 profits by $40mn
• Live 24/7 in 23+ markets, 35+ languages - 2.3mn customer service chats since Jan’24
• Decreased customer resolution times to sub-2 mins from 11 mins
• Reduced the need for 700 customer-service agents
• Reduced marketing costs by $1.5mn in 1Q24 with GenAI text-images apps
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Challenges: AI Risks
43
White collar jobs at risk, but…
A paradigm shift in corporate efficiency and productivity…
in line with past disruptive technologies like the telephone, automobile, personal computer and internet
Customer Service
~2.9mn customer service agents in US
~$119bn in annual salaries in US
Humans Bots
One Language Every Language
One Customer Unlimited Customers
Imperfect Memory Perfect Memory
Sleep No Sleep
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
44
Challenge: AI requires a lot of energy
AI training and inference could grow to 20% of global power usage by 2028 from 8% today
NVDA’s H100 GPU production may drive an incremental 1 GW of AI data center demand by itself
45
AI Workloads: Data center electrical demand driver
46
AI Beneficiaries: Not just Nvidia
Semis Cloud/Data Center Applications
Nvidia Microsoft Azure Adobe
Intel Google Cloud Alphabet
AMD Amazon Web Services Amazon
Applied Materials Equinix GitLab
Meta, Alphabet Digital Realty Trust Meta
Microsoft
Nvidia
Palantir
Pinterest
Salesforce
ServiceNow
Workday
47
AI Beneficiaries: CSPs
Pick & Shovel beneficiaries, many of which provide solutions across the tech stack, have emerged
AI technology stack – from Infrastructure to Applications
50
Proprietary AI framework for best positioned vendors
• We developed a proprietary AI framework* to identify AI winners in the group, based on 13 different attributes such as
scale of a company’s installed base, data set, data management competence and sales channel. We weighed these
against risk factors such as disintermediated data set, transaction and consumer exposure
• See Appendix for our framework methodology and the rest of the coverage’s ranking
*Our framework is not intended to be comprehensive in nature or to represent definitive views on companies likely to be AI beneficiaries. Our framework is not intended either to reflect views on timing, including when AI-driven tailwinds or headwinds
are likely to be reflected in stock prices
Source: BofA Global Research 51
What’s Next?
• Edge AI: Edge computing + AI for reduced cost and increased security
52
What’s Next? Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG)
Legal Research
Content Creation
53
What’s Next? SLMs & Knowledge Distillation
Consumer Adoption
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
54
What’s Next? Edge AI
Edge AI – New use cases/lower costs via reduced latency, bandwidth & privacy concerns
Processing/compute shifts from the Cloud to on-prem servers (the “Edge”) that are closer to the source
Edge Computing + AI = Edge AI
Data processing/compute occurs on local servers deployed close Benefits
Edge Computing to the device/end-user. In contrast, Cloud computing processing
occurs on servers deployed in public data centers. Real-Time Insights
Tools that leverage algorithms to process, learn from and Ultra-Low Latency Responses
+ AI
produce responses to prompts
= Edge AI
AI applications are deployed on devices and processing/compute Reduced Bandwidth/Cost
occurs on local servers deployed close to the device/end-user.
Increased Privacy/Security
Offline Capabilities
Use Cases
Manufacturing/Healthcare/Retail
Smart Appliances/Wearables
IoT Devices
Autonomous Vehicles/Robots
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
55
7 AI Takeaways
56
Q&A
57
Thank you
58
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