WSP ENVIRONMENTAL

WESTERN TIGRAY IAIP & RTC

FACILITIES, ETHIOPIA
TRANSPORT IMPACT ASSESSMENT

22 NOVEMBER 2017 CONFIDENTIAL

WESTERN TIGRAY IAIP &
RTC FACILITIES,
ETHIOPIA
TRANSPORT IMPACT
ASSESSMENT
WSP ENVIRONMENTAL

REPORT (DRAFT)
CONFIDENTIAL

PROJECT NO.: 23669

DATE: NOVEMBER 2017

WSP
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QUALITY MANAGEMENT

ISSUE/REVISION FIRST ISSUE REVISION 1 REVISION 2 REVISION 3

Remarks Draft

Date 04/12/2017

Prepared by Christo Bredenhann

Pr Eng

Signature

Checked by Christo Bredenhann

Pr Eng

Signature

Authorised by Patrick Riley

Pr Tech Eng

Signature

Project number 23699

Report number Draft

File reference Z:\23000 -

23999\23669 -
Ethiopia IAIP\31
CV\01-DOCS\02-
Reports\03-Reports
SIGNATURES

PREPARED BY

Christo Bredenhann Pr Eng

Senior Traffic & Transportation Engineer

REVIEWED BY

Patrick Riley Pr Tech Eng

Director

This report was prepared by WSP for the account of WSP ENVIRONMENTAL, in accordance with the
professional services agreement. The disclosure of any information contained in this report is the sole
responsibility of the intended recipient. The material in it reflects WSP’s best judgement in light of the
information available to it at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this report, or any
reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. WSP accepts no
responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions based
on this report. This limitations statement is considered part of this report.
The original of the technology-based document sent herewith has been authenticated and will be retained by
WSP for a minimum of ten years. Since the file transmitted is now out of WSP’s control and its integrity can no
longer be ensured, no guarantee may be given to by any modifications to be made to this document.

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PRODUCTION TEAM
CLIENT

Client Contact – WSP Environmental Jacqui Fincham

WSP

Christo Bredenhann Pr. Eng

Project Leader

Project Director Patrick Riley Pr. Tech Eng

SUBCONSULTANTS

N/a

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WESTERN TIGRAY IAIP & RTC FACILITIES, ETHIOPIA WSP
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 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................3
1.1 Background............................................................................. 3
1.2 Scope of work ......................................................................... 3

2 FINDINGS OF THE SCOPING REPORT ................... 4

2.1 Air quality ................................................................................ 4
2.2 Noise ....................................................................................... 5
2.3 Traffic ...................................................................................... 5

3 PROJECT DETAILS...................................................6
3.1 Type & Extent of the developments ....................................... 6
3.1.1 Baeker IAIP............................................................................................................... 6
3.1.2 Mai Kadra RTC......................................................................................................... 6

3.2 Phasing of the development .................................................. 6

3.3 Approval of Submissions ....................................................... 6

4 LIAISON & DATA COLLECTION ............................... 7

4.1 LiaIson..................................................................................... 7
4.2 Site Visits ................................................................................ 7
4.3 Data sources ........................................................................... 7
4.4 Latent Developments.............................................................. 7
4.5 Road Network & Master Planning .......................................... 7

5 SITE LOCATION & SURROUNDING ROAD

NETWORK .................................................................8
5.1 Baeker IAIP ............................................................................. 8
5.1.1 Site Location ............................................................................................................. 8
5.1.2 Road network description ........................................................................................ 9

5.2 Mai Kadra RTC ...................................................................... 10

5.2.1 Site Location ........................................................................................................... 10
5.2.2 Road network description ...................................................................................... 11

6 GENERAL TRAFFIC INFORMATION ...................... 12

6.1 Development Access ............................................................ 12
6.2 Parking Provision ................................................................. 12
6.3 Public & Non-Motorised Transport assessment ................. 13

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 6.3.1 Baeker IAIP ............................................................................................................ 13
6.3.2 Mai Kadra RTC ...................................................................................................... 13

7 TRAFFIC FLOWS & TRIP GENERATION ............... 13

7.1 Existing Traffic Flows ........................................................... 13
7.2 Latent Traffic ......................................................................... 13
7.3 Development Traffic Generation........................................... 13
7.4 Capacity Analysis.................................................................. 14

8 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT .......................... 15

8.1 IMPACT DESCRIPTION AND DEFINITION ............................ 15
8.1.1 Impact Definition .................................................................................................... 15
8.1.2 Description of Impacts ........................................................................................... 16
8.1.3 Nature of Impact..................................................................................................... 16
8.1.4 Type of Impact ....................................................................................................... 16
8.1.5 scale of Impact ....................................................................................................... 16
8.1.6 Duration of Impact.................................................................................................. 16
8.1.7 probability ............................................................................................................... 17
8.1.8 Severity................................................................................................................... 17
8.1.9 Evaluation of Significance of Impact ..................................................................... 19
8.1.10 Categories of impact significance ......................................................................... 20

8.2 Traffic Impact Assessment per facility ................................. 20

8.2.1 Baeker IAIP ............................................................................................................ 21
8.2.2 Mai Kadra RTC ...................................................................................................... 22

9 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ............. 22

10 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................... 24

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 TABLES
TABLE 1-1 POTENTIAL CONSTRUCTION AND
OPERATION RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAFFIC .................................................................... 5
TABLE 8-1: PROBABILITY RATING OF IMPACT................................ 17
TABLE 8-2 DEFINITIONS OF SEVERITY USED IN
THE ESIA FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
RECEPTORS ........................................................... 17
TABLE 8-3 DEFINITIONS OF SEVERITY USED IN
THE ESIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC
RECEPTORS ........................................................... 18
TABLE 8-4 SIGNIFICANCE MATRIX NEGATIVE
IMPACTS ................................................................. 19
TABLE 8-5 SIGNIFICANCE MATRIX POSITIVE
IMPACTS ................................................................. 20
TABLE 8-6 POTENTIAL CONSTRUCTION AND
OPERATION RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAFFIC .................................................................. 20
TABLE 8-7 IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF OPERATION
PHASE TRAFFIC ..................................................... 21

FIGURES
FIGURE 5-1 BAEKER IAIP SITE LOCATION.................................. 8
FIGURE 5-2 BAEKER IAIP LAYOUT .............................................. 8
FIGURE 5-3 MAI KADRA RTC SITE LOCATION .......................... 10
FIGURE 5-4 MAI KADRA RTC LAYOUT ...................................... 11
FIGURE 5-5 IMAGE OF LOCAL ROAD ........................................ 12
FIGURE 7-1 PROPOSED TYPICAL IAIP MAIN ACCESS
CONFIGURATION.................................................... 15

1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
The United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) has appointed WSP to undertake the required
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) of the proposed Baeker Integrated Agri Industrial Park
(IAIP) and the accompanying Mai Kadra Rural Transformation Centre (RTC). The facilities will be located in
the Western Tigray Region of Ethiopia.
The objective of the ESIA is to obtain environmental certification for the proposed development from the
Ministry of Environment. The ESIA is to be undertaken in line with the African Development Bank (AfDB)
standards and local Ethiopian legislation.
The potential traffic impact of the proposed Project and the need for a specialist Traffic Impact Assessment
(TIA) was identified in the ESIA Scoping Report for the proposed Tigray IAIP and RTC ESIA.

1.2 SCOPE OF WORK

The TIA consist of the following two components:
— Traffic Impact: input to ESIA Scoping Report.

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— Traffic Impact Assessment: this report.
The TIA assesses the expected traffic related impacts of the proposed facilities during the operation phase
only. The construction phase traffic impact was only briefly noted due to the volume of construction related
traffic (material deliveries, personnel, etc.) that cannot be determined at this stage. The proposed IAIP and
associated RTC are intended to be long term operational facilities (i.e. are not intended to be decommissioned
in the near future). As such the potential traffic impact of the decommissioning phase was also not
considered further.
The following documents were reviewed to inform the Scope of Work of the TIA, namely:
— African Development Bank’s IESIA Guidelines, Safeguards and Sustainability Series, Volume 2, Issue 1-
3, dated December 2015.
— Ethiopian Roads Authority: on-line information.

Limited requirements are stated in these documents with regards to the scope of work for a TIA for these type
of developments. Therefore, the scope was informed by the requirements of the South Africa Committee of
Transport Officials, South African Traffic Impact and Site Traffic Assessment Manual, TMH16, Vol. 1, Version
1, August 2012. Also refer to Section 2.3.

The scope covers inter alia the following:

— Description of the extent of the development, including location and land-use/s.
— Description of the phased development of the facility (if applicable).
— Record of liaison.
— Record of site visits.
— Description of the local and potentially affected road network, including planning and comment on the
road condition, where information is available.
— Description of latent developments in the vicinity of the facility that may also have an impact on the local
road network, where information is available.
— Assessment of the required site access and parking requirements.
— Assessment of expected trip generation (operational phase).
— Capacity analysis of affected local intersections (operational phase only).
— Assessment of public transport and non-motorised transport requirements.
— Recommendations and conclusions with regards to the required transportation upgrades and/or mitigating
measures.

2 FINDINGS OF THE SCOPING REPORT

The Scoping report identified various traffic related potential impacts on the study area of the IAIP and RTC.
These are briefly discussed below.

2.1 AIR QUALITY

— Dust and vehicle tailpipe emissions caused by vehicle movements on the access roads and the internal
roads on each site during the construction and operational phases.
— Air quality may be affected due to these activities, and may impact the surrounding residential receptors.
— The Scoping report recommended an Air Quality Impact Assessment and GHG emissions monitoring and
reporting studies should be undertaken in the ESIA Phase.
— The transport related air quality impacts will be assessed in the Air Quality Assessment and GHG
Emissions assessment, and was therefore not assessed further in this study.

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2.2 NOISE
— Noise levels are expected to increase due to increased vehicle movements on the access roads and the
internal roads on each site during the construction and operational phases.
— Increased noise emissions may impact the surrounding noise sensitive receptors.
— The Scoping report recommended a Noise Impact Assessment should be undertaken in the ESIA Phase.
— The transport related noise impact will be assessed in the Noise Impact Assessment, and was therefore
not assessed further in this study.

2.3 TRAFFIC
— The expected produce through-put and related vehicle volumes for deliveries and distribution to and from
the IAIP and the RTC is not known. However, the interaction between community members using these
routes with the increased Project traffic from the construction phase onwards, may increase the risk of
traffic accidents.
— A breakdown of potential construction phase and operational phase traffic related impacts and ratings are
provided in Table 2-1.

Table 2-1: Potential construction and operation risks associated with traffic

Description Probability Consequence Risk Level

Increased vehicle volumes on the local roads may 3 2 Medium
impact on the safety of the community in the area,
especially vulnerable non-motorised transport users
(pedestrians, cyclists, etc.) (construction)
Increased vehicle volumes on the local roads may 3 3 Medium
impact on the safety of the community in the area,
especially vulnerable non-motorised transport users
(pedestrians, cyclists, etc.) (operational)
— The Scoping report recommended that a Traffic Study should be undertaken in the ESIA Phase.
— It is recommended that investigations are made into the existing weekday traffic volumes on the access
road to the IAIP and the local roads in the vicinity of the developments. The estimated vehicle volumes
are to take cognisance of the produce deliveries and distribution, as well as staff trips to and from the
facilities.

The ESIA listed the following requirements for the TIA:

— Assess the volume of increased traffic that will result from the proposed IAIP and RTC sites.
— Whether the existing infrastructure will be able to handle the resultant volumes (i.e. whether design
amendments to the federal highways need to be made to facilitate trucks accessing or departing the
sites).
— Determine the possible impact the increased volumes will have on safety of the community in the area.
— Identification of mitigation measures in light of any significant negative impacts identified.

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3 PROJECT DETAILS
3.1 TYPE & EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENTS

3.1.1 BAEKER IAIP

The proposed Baeker IAIP falls under the jurisdiction of Baeker Town of the Kaft Humera Woreda within the
Western administrative zone in the Tigray Region. The site abuts the highway which connects Gondar and
Humera which are approximately 220 km southeast and 35 km northwest of the site respectively. The town of
Baeker, located approximately 10 km southeast of the site, has also been identified to provide support to a
limited extent. As the proposed site is located close to Humera, the major town of the zone, it allows the
proposed development to tap into the existing social infrastructure in terms of banking, financial, recreational
and logistics support. The site is geographically located between 1551441.444 N to 1553690.188 N, and
258456.447 E to 260555.195 E (UTM coordinates).

The proposed Baeker IAIP is a pilot facility with a site area of 258.67 hectares (ha) out of a total 1,000 ha of
land that has been identified for potential use. Based on the success of the project the IAIP will be expanded
within the remainder of the earmarked land. Note, this report only pertains to the assessment of the 258.67 ha
pilot development. Future expansion of the IAIP will require separate ESIA’s to be undertaken.

The land is used solely for agricultural purposes, predominantly the production of sesame and sorghum crops.
There are no dwellings on the site nor other social infrastructure.

3.1.2 MAI KADRA RTC

The proposed Mai Kadra RTC site is located approximately 1.5 km south of town of Mai Kadra, 25 km south
of Humera, and approximately 23 km west of the Baeker IAIP. The proposed site falls under the jurisdiction of
Mai Kadra town, located in the Western Zone of the Tigray Region. The site is geographically located
between 1554941.124 N to 1555276.552 N and 237326.294 E to 237636.305 E (UTM coordinates).

3.2 PHASING OF THE DEVELOPMENT

The implementation planning of the facility is as follows:
— Commencement of construction: 2017
— Construction period: 24 months
— Commencement of operational phase: 2020
— Operational lifespan: long-term

3.3 APPROVAL OF SUBMISSIONS

This report will be subject to approval from the relevant roads authorities, and will be submitted as part of the
ESIA process.

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4 LIAISON & DATA COLLECTION
4.1 LIAISON
Refer to the WSP Scoping Report (Section 7), for the detailed Stakeholder Engagement activities.

4.2 SITE VISITS

A site visit was undertaken during September 2017 to assess the proposed site access, access roads and to
undertake high-level traffic counts.

4.3 DATA SOURCES

The following project specific data sources were assessed:
— Preliminary Scoping Report for the proposed Western Tigray IAIP and RTC Environmental and Social
impact Assessment, undertaken by WSP in June 2017.
— Mahindra Consulting Engineers, Western Tigray Design and Detailed Engineering Documents and
Drawings, 2017.
— Scoping Report for the proposed Baeker IAIP and Mai Kadra RTC Environmental and Social impact
Assessment, undertaken by WSP, November 2017.
— Mahindra, Integrated Agro Industrial Park – Baeker, Development Control Regulation, Release 1, October
2017.
— Situation Analysis Report for the Preparation of Structure Plan for the Ba’eker town, Studio Samson Addis
Consulting Architects, Planners & Engineers, October 2012.
— Maikadra Structural Plan, Girmay Kifle Consulting Architects and Engineers, January 2013.

4.4 LATENT DEVELOPMENTS

There are no known large-scale latent developments in the vicinity of this development, therefore no
Cumulative Transport Impacts are expected on the local road network.
— The Baeker Town Situation Report did not cover the IAIP site and surrounds, therefore any developments
in the town will have a negligible impact on the site. The increased residential and commercial
development of the town may therefore be a source of additional local labour and a market for products.
— The Mai KAdra Structure plan did not cover the RTC site and surrounds, therefore any developments in
the town will have a negligible impact on the site. The report does note that the town can expand in all
directions, except to the north. The increased residential and commercial development of the town may
therefore be a source of additional local labour and a market for products.

4.5 ROAD NETWORK & MASTER PLANNING

There are no known new or additional local roads or federal highways planned in the vicinity of the sites or the
study areas.

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5 SITE LOCATION & SURROUNDING
ROAD NETWORK
5.1 BAEKER IAIP

5.1.1 SITE LOCATION

The proposed Baeker IAIP falls under the jurisdiction of Baeker Town of the Kaft Humera Woreda within the
Western administrative zone in the Tigray Region. The site abuts the main road which connects Gondar 220
km to the south-east, to Humera, 35 km to the north-west on the Eritrean border. The site is geographically
located between 1551441.444 N to 1553690.188 N, and 258456.447 E to 260555.195 E (UTM coordinates).

Refer to Figure 5-1 for the locality map of the development and proposed access and Figure 5-2 for the
proposed internal layout.

Figure 5-1 Baeker IAIP site location

Source: GoogleMaps

Figure 5-2 Baeker IAIP Layout

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Source: Mahindra Consulting Engineers

5.1.2 ROAD NETWORK DESCRIPTION

The local road network consist of the Gondar - Humera road, a single carriageway surfaced road, with 1 lane
per direction in the vicinity of the site.
The road is suitable to provide vehicle access and connectivity to the development, pending the provision of
the two suitable local accesses that takes cognisance of vehicle and Non-motorised transport (NMT) safety.
Important note, the condition of the road was not assessed, therefore sections of this or other access roads to
the IAIP may currently be in a poor condition, dangerous or partially impassable, for example the roadway
width is reduced. The additional traffic due to the IAIP could therefore increase the road safety risks and
accident potential in these areas.

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5.2 MAI KADRA RTC

5.2.1 SITE LOCATION

The proposed Mai Kadra RTC site is located approximately 1.5 km south of the town of Mai Kadra, 25 km
south of Humera, and approximately 23 km west of the Baeker IAIP. The proposed site falls under the
jurisdiction of Mai Kadra town, located in the Western Zone of the Tigray Region. The proposed RTC abuts
the road that connects Mai Kadra to Humera on the Eritrean border to the north. The site is geographically
located between 1554941.124 N to 1555276.552 N and 237326.294 E to 237636.305 E (UTM coordinates).
Refer to Figure 5-3 for the locality map of the development and proposed access and Figure 5-4 for the
proposed internal layout.

Figure 5-3: Mai Kadra RTC site location

Source: GoogleMaps

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Figure 5-4 Mai Kadra RTC Layout
Source: Mahindra Consulting Engineers

5.2.2 ROAD NETWORK DESCRIPTION

The local road network consist of the surfaced road to Mai Kadra, located directly adjacent to the west of the
site. The road is suitable to provide vehicle access and connectivity to the development, pending the
provision of the three suitable accesses that takes cognisance of vehicle and Non-motorised transport (NMT)
safety.
Refer to Figure 5-5 for an image of the existing local road in the vicinity of the accesses.

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Important note, the condition of the road was not assessed, therefore sections of this or other access roads to
the RTC may currently be in a poor condition, dangerous or partially impassable, for example the roadway
width is reduced. The additional traffic due to the RTC could therefore increase the road safety risks and
accident potential in these areas.

Figure 5-5: Image of local road

6 GENERAL TRAFFIC INFORMATION

6.1 DEVELOPMENT ACCESS
The vehicle accesses to the IAIP and the RTC must be designed to the relevant National standards, namely
the Ethiopia Road Authority design standards. Also refer to Section 8.2.

6.2 PARKING PROVISION

All parking provision will be provided on-site, and parking on individual erven will be subject to the
Development Control Regulations of the sites. The parking provision will be in-line with the zoning of each
internal erf of the IAIP and RTC.

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6.3 PUBLIC & NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT

6.3.1 BAEKER IAIP

There are no residential areas or villages in the vicinity of the site, and it is located in excess of 10 km from
the town of Baeker. Public transport will therefore be required to transport workers to the site. The type and
extent of the services cannot be assess at this stage, and may have to be provided in incremental stage as
the number of workers on-site increases.
— A suitable public transport stop should be provided on-site, to ensure safety of passengers waiting for
transport.
— Due to the remote location of the site, non-motorised transport will be negligible along the access road,
and no special requirements are recommended.

6.3.2 MAI KADRA RTC

There are no residential areas or villages in the vicinity of the site, and it is located approximately 1.5km to the
nearest town. Public transport will therefore be required to transport workers to the site. The type and extent
of the services cannot be assess at this stage, and may have to be provided in incremental stage as the
number of workers on-site increases.
— A suitable public transport stop should be provided on-site, to ensure safety of passengers waiting for
transport.
— Due to the remote location of the site, non-motorised transport will be negligible along the access road,
and no special requirements are recommended.

7 TRAFFIC FLOWS & TRIP GENERATION

7.1 EXISTING TRAFFIC FLOWS
Sample traffic counts were undertaken by Mahindra along the Federal Highway near the proposed IAIP
access. The traffic flow was approximately 35 veh/hr.
Traffic counts are not available for the Federal Highway near the propose RTC access.

7.2 LATENT TRAFFIC

There are no known large-scale latent development in the vicinity of the sites that will general additional traffic
in future. Also refer to Section 4.4.

7.3 DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC GENERATION

Mahindra calculated the expected trip generation of the site to determine the pavement structure requirements
for the design life of the facilities. The method to calculate the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) was as
per the Ethiopian Roads Authority Manual for agri-processing and non-agri processing areas.
Baeker – 5,298 AADT (veh/day) for the fully developed site
— This translates to approximately 2,964 vehicles In + Out at each access.

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— During an 8-hour work day, and allowing an additional 2 hours for arrival and departure, the average
vehicle volume is approximately 297 veh (In + Out) per hour. This is a moderate volume, and no traffic or
capacity issues are expected.
— The workday AM and PM peak hour vehicle volumes were estimated as 30% per peak of the AADT. The
AM and PM peak volumes will therefore be 889 veh/hr (In + Out) at each access. This is a high volume,
however due to the low traffic volumes along the access road and no definite weekday AM or PM
background traffic peak, no traffic or capacity issues are expected.

Important note:
The estimated vehicle trip generation seems excessive for the type and extent of the developments due to the
following reasons:
— Land-uses such as raw material storage is not expected to attract large numbers of workers.
— The estimates equal to 23,571 persons on-site daily at the IAIP.
— No provision is made for NMT trips to the site for workers, shoppers, etc.
Mahindra has subsequently stated that they confirm their trip generation calculations.
Mai Kadra – 133 veh/day for the fully developed site
— This translates to approximately 45 vehicles In + Out at each access.
— This is a very low volume, and no traffic safety or capacity issues are expected.
—

7.4 CAPACITY ANALYSIS

A capacity analysis of the various access intersections is not deemed necessary due to the expected peak
hour volumes to and from the sites, and the low volumes along the main access roads.
It is recommended that due to the higher traffic volumes at the IAIP access, a typical access configuration of
at least one of the accesses should be as follows, refer to

Figure 7-1. The additional turning lanes on the access road to the site will improve the operation and safety of
the intersection. Note, the configuration must be approved by the roads authority.

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Figure 7-1 Proposed typical IAIP main access configuration

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8 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
8.1 IMPACT DESCRIPTION AND DEFINITION

8.1.1 IMPACT DEFINITION

Environmental impacts from planned and non-planned activities during all phases of the Project are assessed
on the basis of detailed knowledge and industry experience of these activities. For the purpose of this ESIA an
environmental or socio-economic impact is defined as:
“Any change to the environment, whether adverse or beneficial, wholly or partially resulting from an
organisation’s activities or services.” (ISO 14001)
Prediction of impacts is an objective exercise to determine what is likely to happen to the environment as a
consequence of the Project and its associated activities. From the potentially significant interactions identified
in scoping, the impacts to the various resources/receptors are elaborated and evaluated. The diverse range of
potential impacts considered in the impact assessment process typically results in a wide range of prediction
methods being used, including quantitative and semi quantitative techniques, for example noise impacts on
sensitive surrounding community receptors, and qualitative techniques for assessing certain socio-economic
impacts on communities.

8.1.2 DESCRIPTION OF IMPACTS

Environmental impacts arise as a result of Project activities either interacting with environmental or social
receptors directly, or causing changes to the existing environment such that an indirect effect occurs.
Environmental and social impacts from a planned event are those resulting from the routine and intended
construction or operations/activities associated with the IAIP and RTC facilities (e.g. regular truck movements
to and from the facilities transferring produce to market). Environmental and social impacts from unplanned
events occur as a result of incidents or ‘upset conditions’. Typical examples of impacts occurring from
unplanned events include (but are not limited to) spills, leaks, odours and fires.

8.1.3 NATURE OF IMPACT

The nature of an impact is defined as the type of change from baseline conditions. The nature of an impact is
described as being either positive (+ve) or negative (-ve).

8.1.4 TYPE OF IMPACT

Impact type indicates the relationship of the impact to the Project activity in terms of cause and effect, as
either:
— Direct impact resulting from the direct interaction between a project activity and the receiving
environment; or
— Indirect impact which include secondary or induced impacts caused by a change in the Project
environment (e.g. employment opportunities created by the supply chain requirements);or
— Cumulative impact; where a Project impact acts together with other impacts (including those from
concurrent or planned future third party activities) to affect the same resources and/or receptors as the
Project.

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8.1.5 SCALE OF IMPACT
Impact extent relates to the geographic reach of the impact and is described as:
— Local impact would affect local resources or receptors and would be restricted to a single community (i.e.
impacts in the footprint of Project activities and the immediate adjacent area);
— Regional impact would affect regional resources or receptors and would be experienced at a regional
scale;
— Trans-boundary impact would be those that are experienced in one country as a result of activities in
another.

8.1.6 DURATION OF IMPACT

Impact duration refers to the time period over which a resource or receptor will be affected, and includes:
— Temporary impacts would be of a very short duration, are reversible and intermittent or occasional in
nature. The resource or receptor would return to the previous state when the effect ceases or after a short
period of recovery;
— Short-term impacts would last for a short duration (2 to 5 years) and are usually limited to the
construction period. The impact would cease when the effect ceases following a short period of recovery;
— Medium-term impacts would last for over five years but less than fifteen years (5 to 15 years). The impact
would cease following rehabilitation and a period of recovery;
— Long-term impacts would continue for an extended period of time (e.g. beyond 15 years), or cause a
more permanent change in the affected receptor or resource that endures substantially beyond the
Project lifetime.

8.1.7 PROBABILITY
The probability of an event occurring and creating an impact on a given receptor is designated using a
qualitative scale from 1 to 4, the higher values being more probable that an impact will occur, see Table 8-1
below.
Table 8-1: Probability rating of impact

Rating Description
Scale
1 Unlikely - very improbable, never heard of in the industry, or an event with a short
duration (probably will not happen).
2 Low probability - incident has occurred in the industry and so therefore could occur,
or an event lasting up to a day (some possibility, but low likelihood).
3 Medium Probability - incident has (or is) expected to occur during the project or is
very likely to, or an event which may occur up to 1 month (distinct possibility).
4 High probability - incident is expected to happen frequently a year or is almost
certain to happen, or an event which is expected to occur multiple times (most likely).

8.1.8 SEVERITY
The severity of an impact, on a given receptor is designated using a rating scale from 1 to 4 and defined in
Table 8-2 (Environmental Severity) and Table 8-3 (Socio-economic Severity) below, the high values denoting
a more severe impact.
Table 8-2 Definitions of Severity used in the ESIA for Environmental Receptors

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 CATEGORY ENVIRONMENTAL RECEPTORS – PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
Negative Positive
4 - High Major, long term national, international or Baseline will be significantly improved by the
transboundary effects. project.
Deterioration/improvements of the existing Results in changes / increase in the
habitat or ecosystem baseline conditions is abundance and biodiversity of populations.
significant.
Exceed national and international regulatory
Rehabilitation is required or the baseline will standards in protection and creation of
not recover. natural habitats.
Results in changes / reduction in the
abundance and biodiversity of populations
which may or may not recover.
Such impacts are a major non-compliance
with national and international regulatory
standards and may result in immediate
intervention by governmental bodies and
stakeholders.
3 - Medium Moderate, medium term deterioration / Moderate, medium term rehabilitation of
impact on the ecosystem on a local / ecosystems or national significance,
national level, leading to observable and leading to observable and measurable
measurable changes. changes.
Moderate deterioration / improvements and Moderate deterioration/improvements and
changes / reduction in the abundance and changes / increase in the abundance and
biodiversity of the area with moderate biodiversity of the area with moderate
recovery periods to baseline conditions. recovery periods to baseline conditions.
Non-conformance with national and Conformance with national and
international regulatory standards which international regulatory standards.
may result in the intervention by
governmental bodies and stakeholders.
2 - Low An effect will be experienced but they will be An effect will be experienced but they will be
minor, short term and local, leading to minor, short term and local, leading to
observable and measurable changes observable and measurable changes
recoverable within short durations. recoverable within short durations.
Potential non-conformance with regulatory Partial conformance with regulatory
standards. Unlikely to result in concerns standards. Meets governmental and
being raised by governmental bodies or stakeholder requirements.
stakeholders.
Minor improvements to ambient
Minor deterioration of ambient environmental conditions.
environmental conditions and recovery
requires little or no intervention.
1 - Very Deemed ‘imperceptible’ or indistinguishable Deemed ‘imperceptible’ or indistinguishable
Low from natural background conditions. from natural background conditions.

Table 8-3 Definitions of Severity used in the ESIA for Socio-Economic Receptors

CATEGORY SOCIO ECONOMIC RECEPTORS

Negative Positive
4 - High Highly significant, loss or major damage Retention of all cultural and heritage
with medium to long term effect on cultural resources of value on site.

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 and/or natural resources of national and Highly significant positive impacts on the
regional importance which are essential for national and international community
communities’ livelihood. (regional, i.e. neighbouring countries).
Those affected will be able to adapt to
Highly significant negative impacts on the
changes with some difficulty/ease, and will
national and international community
only be able to maintain pre-impact
(regional, i.e. neighbouring countries).
livelihoods with a degree of support.
Those affected will be able to adapt to
changes with some difficulty/ease, and will Project meeting and exceeding
only be able to maintain pre-impact Government policies and plans.
livelihoods with a degree of support.
National and International media and
Immediate intervention by governmental community support.
bodies requiring rapid implementation of
response measures.
National and International media and
community concerns and ongoing long term
complaints.
3 - Medium Moderate damage to archaeological, Retention of cultural heritage resources (of
cultural or key natural resources of local or value) where possible and appropriate
national importance. recording of resources that cannot be
retained.
Moderate negative impacts on the regional
or national population. Vulnerable groups Moderate positive impacts on the regional
significantly affected. Changes affecting or national population. Vulnerable groups
livelihoods, amenity values, convenience significantly affected. Changes affecting
and quality of life of study population. livelihoods, amenity values, convenience
and quality of life of study population;
National and potentially international media
and community concerns and ongoing long National media and community support.
term complaints.
2 - Low An effect will be experienced but they will An effect will be experienced but they will
be Minor, short term effects recoverable be Minor, short term effects of short
within short durations. durations.
Unlikely to result in concerns being raised Meets governmental and stakeholder
by governmental bodies or stakeholders. requirements.
Measurable negative impacts that are Measurable positive impacts that are
intermittent or effect a small minority of the intermittent or effect a small minority of the
local population and / or vulnerable groups. local population and / or vulnerable groups.
May result in concerns from local
communities.
1 - Very Deemed ‘imperceptible’ or Deemed ‘imperceptible’ or
Low indistinguishable from natural background indistinguishable to current social norms
conditions. No public interest. and variations.
No public interest.

8.1.9 EVALUATION OF SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT

Based on the above methodology, the impacts resulting from the project are classified within this ESIA as
either positive or negative with a specific severity rating.

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All environmental and social impacts have been identified based on the information summarised in this ESIA
and their significance is assessed and classified by combining the probability and severity scores as shown in
Table 8-4, which relates to negative impacts, or Table 8-5 which relates to positive impacts below.
In assessing whether an impact is significant, reference has been made, where appropriate, to criteria on
which the evaluation is based. These may include legislative requirements, policy guidance or accepted
practice and past experience.
Table 8-4: Significance Matrix Negative Impacts

PROBABILITY RATING

SIGNIFICANCE Very low Low Medium High

1 2 3 4

Very low 1 Negligible Minor Minor Minor

Severity Rating

Low 2 Minor Minor Moderate Moderate

Medium 3 Minor Moderate Moderate Major

High 4 Minor Moderate Major Major

Table 8-5 Significance Matrix Positive Impacts

PROBABILITY RATING

SIGNIFICANCE Very low Low Medium High

1 2 3 4

Very low 1 Negligible Minor Minor Minor

Severity Rating

Low 2 Minor Minor Moderate Moderate

Medium 3 Minor Moderate Moderate Major

High 4 Minor Moderate Major Major

8.1.10 CATEGORIES OF IMPACT SIGNIFICANCE

The different significance categories reflected by the colour scheme used in the above matrix and within this
ESIA reflect the following:
• Negligible - no additional action is required and the impact is already reduced to as low as reasonably
practicable (ALARP);

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• Minor - where the level of risk is broadly acceptable and generic control measures are already assumed
in a design process but, where appropriate, require continuous improvement.

• Moderate - where the level of risk is tolerable but control measures are required to reduce the risk as far
as is practicable (i.e. tolerable if as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)).
• Major - changes to the project are required which requires a re-assessment of applicable mitigation and /
or reconsideration of alternatives and options by the project design team.

8.2 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT PER FACILITY

The scoping report identified the following construction and operational phase traffic impacts:
— The expected produce through-put and related vehicle volumes for deliveries and distribution to and from
the IAIP and the RTC is not known. However, the interaction between community members using these
routes with the increased Project traffic from the construction phase onwards, may increase the risk of
traffic accidents.

A breakdown of potential construction phase and operational phase traffic related impacts and ratings are
provided in Table 8-6.

Table 8-6 Potential construction and operation risks associated with traffic

Description Probability Consequence Risk Level

Increased vehicle volumes on the local 3 2 Medium
roads may impact on the safety of the
community in the area, especially
vulnerable non-motorised transport users
(pedestrians, cyclists, etc.)
(construction)
Increased vehicle volumes on the local 3 3 Medium
roads may impact on the safety of the
community in the area, especially
vulnerable non-motorised transport users
(pedestrians, cyclists, etc.)
(operational)

The impact of the construction phase traffic cannot be assessed, as the vehicle numbers are unknown. To
note is that due to the short construction period (2-years), the impact will be of a short duration.

8.2.1 BAEKER IAIP

— A breakdown of the construction, operational and decommissioning phase traffic related impacts and
ratings are provided in
Table 8-7.

Table 8-7: Impact assessment of traffic – Baeker IAIP

Construction

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Operation

Decommissioning

MITIGATION MEASURES - CONSTRUCTION

It is not possible to determine the construction traffic volumes or types at this stage. However, it should be
noted that the volumes are expected to be less than the operational phase, and that the impact will be for a
shorter period, namely the construction phase of 3 years.
It is recommended that due to the higher traffic volumes to and from the IAIP during operation, a typical
access configuration of at least one of the accesses should include the following, also refer to

Figure 7-1:

— Access with 2 lanes In and 2 lanes Out.

— Main road with short (80 m) right-turn In lane
— Main road with short (80 m) left-turn In lane
— Additional road signage & markings along the main road at all the accesses
— Street lighting along the main road along the full length of the property frontage

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The additional turning lanes on the main will improve the operation and safety of the intersection. Note, the
configuration must be approved by the roads authority.

These upgrades should be implemented for the construction phase to ensure safe access to all construction
vehicles, and the future operation phase traffic.

MITIGATION MEASURES - OPERATION

The mitigation measures (intersection upgrades, etc.) will be in place from the Construction phase.
It is also recommended that the trip generation of the IAIP be monitored annually during the operational phase
to ensure that the access intersections operate safely and with sufficient capacity and acceptable levels of
service. Note that through traffic on the access road must also not be obstructed. If the intersection
performance deteriorates to unacceptable levels in future, additional intersection upgrades should be
implemented.

MITIGATION MEASURES - DECOMMISSIONING

None – the mitigation measures (intersection upgrades, etc.) will be in place from the Construction and
Operation phase.

8.2.2 MAI KADRA RTC

The very low traffic volumes to and from the RTC does not justify additional turning lanes at the access
intersections, therefore no intersection upgrades are recommended.

MITIGATION MEASURES - CONSTRUCTION, OPERATION & DECOMMISSIONING

The required road signs, road markings and street lighting should be implemented at the accesses to ensure
good intersection operation and safety.
It is also recommended that the trip generation of the RTC be monitored annually to ensure that the access
intersections operate safely and with sufficient capacity and acceptable levels of service. Note that through
traffic on the access road must also not be obstructed. If the intersection performance deteriorates to
unacceptable levels in future, additional intersection upgrades should be implemented.

9 CONCLUSIONS &
RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on this report, the following key conclusions are relevant:

— The proposed Baeker IAIP and Mai Kadra RTC will have traffic and safety impacts on the local road
networks and residents within in each study area.

— The condition of the main roads to the IAIP and RTC was not assessed, therefore sections of this or other
access roads may be in a poor condition, dangerous or partially impassable, for example the roadway
width is reduced. The additional traffic due to the IAIP and RTC could therefore increase the road safety
risks and accident potential along these sections outside the study area.

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— There are no known large-scale latent developments in the vicinity of this development, therefore no
Cumulative Transport Impacts are expected on the local road network.

— All parking provision will be provided on-site, and parking on individual erven will be subject to the
Development Control Regulations of the sites. The parking provision will be in-line with the zoning of
each internal erf of the IAIP and RTC.

— Baeker IAIP - There are no residential areas or villages in the vicinity of the Baeker IAIP, and it is located
in excess of 10 km from the town of Baeker. Public transport will therefore be required to transport
workers to the site. The type and extent of the services cannot be assess at this stage, and may have to
be provided in incremental stage as the number of workers on-site increases.
o A suitable public transport stop should be provided on-site, to ensure safety of passengers waiting
for transport.
o Due to the remote location of the site, non-motorised transport will be negligible along the access
road, and no special requirements are recommended.

— Mai Kadra RTC - There are no residential areas or villages in the vicinity of the site, and it is located
approximately 1.5km to the nearest town. Public transport will therefore be required to transport workers
to the site. The type and extent of the services cannot be assess at this stage, and may have to be
provided in incremental stage as the number of workers on-site increases.
o A suitable public transport stop should be provided on-site, to ensure safety of passengers waiting
for transport.
o Due to the remote location of the site, non-motorised transport will be negligible along the main road
to the site, and no special requirements are recommended.

— Construction phase traffic at the IAIP and RTC was not assessed, as the vehicle volumes cannot be
determined. The impact will also only be short-term (2 years).

— Operational phase traffic impacts:

o It is recommended that due to the higher traffic volumes to and from the IAIP, the configuration of at
least one of the accesses should be improved to improve safety and operation of the access. This
will assist to decrease the risk of vehicle/vehicle and vehicle/NMT accidents in the vicinity of the site.
The required road signs, road markings and street lighting should also be implemented at the
accesses to ensure good intersection operation and safety.
o It is recommended that the trip generation of the IAIP be monitored annually to ensure that the access
intersections operate safely and with sufficient capacity and acceptable levels of service. Note that
through traffic on the access road must also not be obstructed. If the intersection performance
deteriorates to unacceptable levels in future, additional intersection upgrades should be implemented.

o Mai Kadra RTC - The very low traffic volumes to and from the RTC does not justify additional turning
lanes at the access intersections, and no intersection upgrades are recommended. Mitigation measures
in the form of the required road signs, road markings and street lighting should be implemented at the
accesses to ensure good intersection operation and safety.

o It is recommended that the trip generation of the RTC be monitored annually to ensure that the access
intersections operate safely and with sufficient capacity and acceptable levels of service. Note that
through traffic on the access road must also not be obstructed. If the intersection performance
deteriorates to unacceptable levels in future, additional intersection upgrades should be implemented.

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10 BIBLIOGRAPHY
— WSP, Preliminary Scoping Report for the proposed Tigray IAIP and RTC Environmental and Social impact
Assessment, June 2017.

— Mahindra Consulting Engineers, Western Tigray Design and Detailed Engineering Documents and
Drawings, 2017.

— African Development Bank, IESIA Guidelines, Safeguards and Sustainability Series, Volume 2, Issue 1,
December 2015.

— African Development Bank, IESIA Guidelines, Safeguards and Sustainability Series, Volume 2, Issue 2,
December 2015.

— African Development Bank, IESIA Guidelines, Safeguards and Sustainability Series, Volume 2, Issue 3,
December 2015.

— Ethiopian Roads Authority: www.era.gov.et

— South Africa Committee of Transport Officials TMH 17 South African Trip Data Manual, Version 1.01,
September 2013.

— South Africa Committee of Transport Officials, South African Traffic Impact and Site Traffic Assessment
Manual, TMH16, Vol. 1, Version 1, August 2012.

— Scoping Report for the proposed Baeker IAIP and Mai Kadra RTC Environmental and Social impact
Assessment, undertaken by WSP, November 2017.

— Mahindra, Integrated Agro Industrial Park – Baeker, Development Control Regulation, Release 1, October
2017.

— Situation Analysis Report for the Preparation of Structure Plan for the Ba’eker town, Studio Samson Addis
Consulting Architects, Planners & Engineers, October 2012.

— Maikadra Structural Plan, Girmay Kifle Consulting Architects and Engineers, January 2013.

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