Week 1 lecture
Week 1 lecture
Presented by
Dr James Cummings
Discipline of Finance
Lecturer
Dr James Cummings
– Office: Codrington Building H69 Room 420
– Consultation hour: Friday, 10:00-11:00 am
– Email: [email protected]
Tutors
Mr Salaar Bin Tassadaq
Mr Jun Wu (Andoreal) Chen
Dr Adam Corbett
Dr James Cummings
Dr Thanh Son (Alex) Luong
Mr Qian (Clement) Peng
Mr Ahasan Sarkar
Mid-semester test
Week 7
Due date: 14 Sep 2024 at 9:40
25%
Group assignment
Mid-semester test
50% Group assignment Week 11
Final exam
Due date: 18 Oct 2024 at 23:59
25%
Final exam
Formal exam period
Weightings
Required text
– Fabozzi, F.J. and Fabozzi, F.A. (2021), Bond Markets, Analysis, and
Strategies, 10th edition, MIT Press
Online support
– Canvas (https://canvas.sydney.edu.au)
Presented by
Dr James Cummings
Discipline of Finance
1. Type of Issuer
2. Term to Maturity
3. Principal and Coupon Rate
4. Amortisation Feature
5. Embedded Options
6. Describing a Bond Issue
1. Interest-rate Risk
2. Reinvestment Risk
3. Call Risk
4. Credit Risk
5. Inflation Risk
6. Exchange Rate Risk
7. Liquidity Risk
8. Volatility Risk
9. Risk Risk
1. Interest-Rate Risk
– Interest-rate risk or market risk refers to an investor having to sell a bond
prior to the maturity date.
– An increase in interest rates will mean the realisation of a capital loss
because the bond sells below the purchase price.
– Interest-rate risk is by far the major risk faced by an investor in the
bond market.
2. Reinvestment Risk
– Reinvestment risk is the risk that the interest rate at which interim cash
flows can be reinvested will fall.
– Reinvestment risk is greater for longer holding periods, as well as for
bonds with large, early, cash flows, such as high-coupon bonds.
– It should be noted that interest-rate risk and reinvestment risk have
offsetting effects.
3. Call Risk
– Call risk is the risk that a callable bond will be called when interest
rates fall.
– Many bonds include a provision that allows the issuer to retire or ‘call’
all or part of the issue before the maturity date; for investors, there are
three disadvantages to call provisions:
a) cash flow pattern cannot be known with certainty
b) investor is exposed to reinvestment risk
c) bond’s capital appreciation potential will be reduced
4. Credit Risk
– Credit risk is the default risk that the bond issuer will fail to satisfy the
terms of the obligation with respect to the timely payment of interest
and principal.
– Credit spread is the part of the risk premium or spread attributable to
default risk.
– Credit spread risk is the risk that a bond price will decline due to an
increase in the credit spread.
5. Inflation Risk
– Inflation risk arises because of the variation in the value of cash flows
from a security due to declines in purchasing power.
– If investors purchase a bond on which they can realise a coupon rate of
7% but the rate of inflation is 8%, the purchasing power of the cash
flow falls.
– For all but floating-rate bonds, an investor is exposed to inflation risk
because the interest rate the issuer promises to make is fixed for the life
of the issue.
6. Exchange-Rate Risk
– Exchange-rate risk refers to the unexpected change in one currency
compared to another currency.
• From the perspective of a U.S. investor, a non-dollar-denominated
bond (i.e., a bond whose payments occur in a foreign currency) has
unknown U.S. dollar cash flows.
• The dollar cash flows are dependent on the exchange rate at the
time the payments are received.
• The risk of the exchange rate causing smaller cash flows is the
exchange-rate risk or currency risk.
7. Liquidity Risk
– Liquidity risk or marketability risk depends on the ease with which an
issue can be sold at or near its value.
• The primary measure of liquidity is the size of the spread between
the bid price and the ask price quoted by a dealer.
• The wider the dealer spread, the more the liquidity risk.
8. Volatility Risk
– Volatility risk is the risk that a change in volatility will adversely affect
the price of a bond.
– The value of an option rises when expected interest-rate volatility
increases.
• In the case of a bond that is callable, or a mortgage-backed
security, in which the investor has granted the borrower an option,
the price of the security falls because the investor has given away a
more valuable option.
9. Risk Risk
– Risk risk refers to not knowing the risk of a security.
– Two ways to mitigate or eliminate risk risk are:
1) Keep up with the literature on the state-of-the-art methodologies
for analysing securities
2) Avoid securities that are not clearly understood
– Fabozzi, F.J. and Fabozzi, F.A. (2021), Bond Markets, Analysis, and
Strategies, 10th edition, MIT Press
– Chapter 1