Demographic Transition Theory
Demographic Transition Theory
Transition Theory
Dr. Rambooshan Tiwari
Assistant Professor
Department of Geography
Indira Gandhi National Tribal University Amarkantak
Email: [email protected]
Contact: 9424322063
Demographic Transition-Meaning
➢ In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory
which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high infant
death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of
women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates
in societies with advanced technology, education and economic
development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios.
Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries
(LEDC's) today.
Stage 2 - Early Expanding
• Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise
steadily.
• Reasons
• Death Rate is falling as a result of:
• Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
• Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
• Improved sanitation
• Improved food production and storage
• Improved transport for food
• Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
#Typical of Britain in 19th century; many African countries.
Stage 3 - Late Expanding
• Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population
rising.
• Reasons
• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women
# Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; India, Sri
Lanka and many other Asian countries
Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
• Population steady.
European countries
• There is much variety in the way in which demographic
transition applies to individual countries and indeed
widespread about the model validity and applicability.
• In contrast to developed countries many country of the world
are experiencing the high rate of growth as the decline in
mortality has not been fully matched by a reduction in
fertility through later a declining in many country.
• Great care must be taken in applying the model of
demographic transition to individual country.
• Despite same tendencies of growth rate the pattern od
decline of birth and death rate varies for individual countries.
Area Birth Rate Reason Death Rate Reason
No contraception
Religious reasons
As an economy
People are used to
develops money
having many
becomes available
children. Takes
for better health
High/ time for culture to
NICs Decreasing care
Decreasing change
Housing improves
Changing status of
women
Better childcare
Children are
expensive
Changing status of
women
• Is the model universally applicable?
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its
limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and
events:
1. Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates
(Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population
decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth
stage added to it.
2. The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the
same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many
LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.
3. The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of
industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary
conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances
were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has
been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities.
• In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model
suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the
fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced
‘onechild’ policy.
• The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong
Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the
early industrialised countries.
4. Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia)
did not pass through the early stages of the model.