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Demographic Transition Theory

Demographic Transition Theory of population geography to help understand how population distributed across the world
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views15 pages

Demographic Transition Theory

Demographic Transition Theory of population geography to help understand how population distributed across the world
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Demographic

Transition Theory
Dr. Rambooshan Tiwari
Assistant Professor
Department of Geography
Indira Gandhi National Tribal University Amarkantak
Email: [email protected]
Contact: 9424322063
Demographic Transition-Meaning
➢ In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory
which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high infant
death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of
women) and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates
in societies with advanced technology, education and economic
development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios.

➢ This is a general model/theory describing the evolution of level of fertility


and mortality over time.

➢ It was devised with particular reference to the experience of develop


country which have pass through the process of industrialization and
urbanization .It has attracted considerable criticism as a general model.
History of the theory
• The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history
developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren
Thompson (1887–1973).
• Adolphe Landry of France made similar observations on
demographic patterns and population growth potential around
1934.
• In the 1940s and 1950s Frank W. Notestein developed a more
formal theory of demographic transition.
• The original model was devised with three stages of Transition.
• UN Advocated the five stage model of demographic transition.
• However, the four stage model of Peter Hagget is more popular.
Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
• Birth Rate and Death rate are both high.
• Population growth is slow and fluctuating.

Birth Rate is high as a result of:


• Lack of family planning
• High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
• Need for workers in agriculture
• Religious beliefs
• Children as economic assets

Death Rate is high because of:


• High levels of disease
• Famine
• Lack of clean water and sanitation
• Lack of health care
• War
• Competition for food from predators such as rats
• Lack of education

Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries
(LEDC's) today.
Stage 2 - Early Expanding
• Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise
steadily.
• Reasons
• Death Rate is falling as a result of:
• Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
• Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
• Improved sanitation
• Improved food production and storage
• Improved transport for food
• Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
#Typical of Britain in 19th century; many African countries.
Stage 3 - Late Expanding
• Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population
rising.
• Reasons
• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women
# Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; India, Sri
Lanka and many other Asian countries
Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

• Low Birth Rate and

• Low Death Rate

• Population steady.

• Sometimes population fluctuate in this stage due to

fluctuation in Birth Rate

• Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain and almost every

European countries
• There is much variety in the way in which demographic
transition applies to individual countries and indeed
widespread about the model validity and applicability.
• In contrast to developed countries many country of the world
are experiencing the high rate of growth as the decline in
mortality has not been fully matched by a reduction in
fertility through later a declining in many country.
• Great care must be taken in applying the model of
demographic transition to individual country.
• Despite same tendencies of growth rate the pattern od
decline of birth and death rate varies for individual countries.
Area Birth Rate Reason Death Rate Reason

No contraception

Couples have many


babies to compensate for
Poor medical
the high death rate
facilities
caused by poor health
care
Disease
LEDCs High High
Large families need to
Poor nutrition
work on the land to
contribute to family
High Infant
income
mortality
Children look after old

Religious reasons
As an economy
People are used to
develops money
having many
becomes available
children. Takes
for better health
High/ time for culture to
NICs Decreasing care
Decreasing change
Housing improves
Changing status of
women
Better childcare
Children are
expensive

People know their


children are going
to survive so they Better health care
can keep their
MEDCs Low Low
families small Better standard of
living
Widely available
contraceptives

Changing status of
women
• Is the model universally applicable?
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its
limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and
events:
1. Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates
(Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population
decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth
stage added to it.
2. The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the
same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many
LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.
3. The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of
industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary
conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances
were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has
been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities.

• In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model
suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the
fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced
‘onechild’ policy.

• The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong
Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the
early industrialised countries.

4. Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia)
did not pass through the early stages of the model.

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