Week Forecast (F1) Demand (D1) Error Abs (Error) Squares Error/Demand

1 92 88 4 4 16 0.04545454545
2 87 88 -1 1 1 0.01136363636
3 95 97 -2 2 4 0.0206185567
4 90 83 7 7 49 0.0843373494
5 88 91 -3 3 9 0.03296703297
6 93 93 0 0 0 0
2.83333333 13.1666667 3.25%
MAD MSE MAPE

Week Forecast (F2) Demand (D2) Error Abs (Error) Squares Error/Demand
1 96 91 5 5 25 0.05494505495
2 89 89 0 0 0 0
3 92 90 2 2 4 0.02222222222
4 93 90 3 3 9 0.03333333333
5 90 86 4 4 16 0.04651162791
6 85 89 -4 4 16 0.04494382022
3 11.6666667 3.37%
MAD MSE MAPE
 Sales (1000s Absolute Squared Relative
Week Forecast Error
of gallons) Error Error Error
1 17
2 21
3 19 19
4 23 21 -4 4 16 0.17391304
5 18 20 3 3 9 0.16666667
6 16 19 4 4 16 0.25
7 20 18 -1 1 1 0.05
8 18 18 0 0 0 0
9 22 20 -4 4 16 0.18181818
10 20 20 0 0 0 0
11 15 19 5 5 25 0.33333333
12 22 19 -3 3 9 0.13636364
2.66666667 10.2222222 14.36%
MAD MSE MAPE
#N/A
#N/A
19
21
20
19
18
18
20
20
19
19
Point Column1 Rank Percent
4 23 1 100.00%
9 22 2 81.80%
12 22 2 81.80%
2 21 4 72.70%
7 20 5 54.50%
10 20 5 54.50%
3 19 7 45.40%
5 18 8 27.20%
8 18 8 27.20%
1 17 10 18.10%
6 16 11 9.00%
11 15 12 0.00%
Periods Weights Sum of Weight
W(t-3) 0.499996 0.999999988767
W(t-2) 0.250003
W(t-1) 0.250001
Sales
Week (1000s of
gallons) Absolute Squared Relative
Forecast Error Error Error Error
1 17

2 21

3 19
4 23 18.50001301507 -4.499987 4.499987 20.24988 0.195652
5 18 20.99999550427 2.999996 2.999996 8.999973 0.166666
6 16 19.75001064942 3.750011 3.750011 14.06258 0.234376
7 20 19.99997971931 -2.03E-05 2.028E-05 4.113E-10 1.014E-06
8 18 17.99999553797 -4.46E-06 4.462E-06 1.991E-11 2.479E-07
9 22 17.50001302631 -4.499987 4.499987 20.24988 0.204545
10 20 19.9999955155 -4.48E-06 4.484E-06 2.011E-11 2.242E-07
11 15 19.50001300384 4.500013 4.500013 20.25012 0.300001
12 22 19.74998846347 -2.250012 2.250012 5.062552 0.102273
2.500004 9.874999 0.133724
MAD MSE MAPE

Sales
Week (1000s of
gallons) Absolute Squared Relative
Forecast Error Error Error Error
1 86
2 75
3 72
4 83 77.66666666667 -5.333333 5.333333 28.44444 0.064257
5 132 76.66666666667 -55.33333 55.33333 3061.778 0.419192
6 65 95.66666666667 30.66667 30.66667 940.4444 0.471795
7 110 93.33333333333 -16.66667 16.66667 277.7778 0.151515
8 90 102.3333333333 12.33333 12.33333 152.1111 0.137037
9 67 88.33333333333 21.33333 21.33333 455.1111 0.318408
10 92 89 -3 3 9 0.032609
11 98 83 -15 15 225 0.153061
12 73 85.66666666667 12.66667 12.66667 160.4444 0.173516
19.14815 590.0123 0.213488
MAD MSE MAPE
Periods Weights Sum of Weight
W(t-5) 0.1 1
W(t-4) 0.1
W(t-3) 0.2

W(t-2) 0.2
W(t-1) 0.4
Sales
Week (1000s of
gallons) Absolute Squared Relative
Forecast Error Error Error Error
1 18
2 22
3 26
4 33
5 14
6 28 21.4 6.6 6.6 43.56 0.235714
7 30 25.4 4.6 4.6 21.16 0.153333
8 52 26.3 25.7 25.7 660.49 0.494231
9 22 37.1 -15.1 15.1 228.01 0.686364
13 238.305 0.392411
MAD MSE MAPE
Alpha 0.663494

Sales
Week (1000s of
gallons) Absolute Squared Relative
Forecast Error Error Error Error
1 17 17 0 0 0 0
2 21 17 -4 4 16 0.190476
3 19 19.65397521 0.653975211 0.653975 0.427684 0.03442
4 23 19.22006671 -3.779933289 3.779933 14.2879 0.164345
5 18 21.72802902 3.728029023 3.728029 13.8982 0.207113
6 16 19.25450487 3.25450487 3.254505 10.5918 0.203407
7 20 17.09516106 -2.904838942 2.904839 8.438089 0.145242
8 18 19.02250369 1.022503694 1.022504 1.045514 0.056806
9 22 18.34407883 -3.65592117 3.655921 13.36576 0.166178
10 20 20.76975987 0.769759869 0.76976 0.59253 0.038488
11 15 20.25902897 5.259028966 5.259029 27.65739 0.350602
12 22 16.76969584 -5.230304161 5.230304 27.35608 0.237741
2.8549 11.13841 0.149568
MAD MSE MAPE
t Weekly Sales VolumeForecast with 3
month daily Forecast with
average Double 3 ma Value of a Value of b
1 654
2 658
3 665 659
4 672 665
5 673 670 664.6666667 675.3333333 5.333333333
6 671 672 669 675 3
7 693 679 673.6666667 684.3333333 5.333333333
8 694 686 679 693 7
9 701 696 687 705 9
10 703 699.3333333333 693.7777778 704.8888889 5.555555556
11 702 702 699.1111111 704.8888889 2.888888889
12 710 705 702.1111111 707.8888889 2.888888889
13 712 708 705 711 3
14 711 711 708 714 3
15 728 717 712 722 5
16
17
18
 Error^2
Forecast Error

680.6666667 -9.66666667 93.44444444

678 15 225
689.6666667 4.333333333 18.77777778
700 1 1
714 -11 121
710.4444444 -8.44444444 71.30864198
707.7777778 2.222222222 4.938271605
710.7777778 1.222222222 1.49382716
714 -3 9
717 11 121
727
732
737
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8745261666
R Square 0.7647960161
Year Sales (in 1000s) Adjusted R Square 0.7353955181
1 21.6 Standard Error 1.9589538024
2 22.9 Observations 10
3 25.5
4 21.9 ANOVA
5 23.9 df
6 27.5 Regression 1
7 31.5 Residual 8
8 29.7 Total 9
9 28.6
10 31.4 Coefficients
Intercept 20.4
Year 1.1
 Quarter Failures Forecast
1 200
2 250
3 175
4 186
5 225 204.4
6 285
7 305
8 190 200.2

SS MS F Significance F
99.825 99.825 26.013029316 0.00092950922
30.7 3.8375
130.525

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
1.338220211076 15.244127858 3.399888E-07 17.3140586594 23.485941341 17.314058659
0.215673715402 5.1002969831 0.0009295092 0.60265552043 1.5973444796 0.6026555204
CYCLE HOLT'S METHOD
alpha
Quarter Failures Slope Intercept
1 200 200 10
2 250 209 9.9
3 175 222.01 10.21
4 186 226.50 9.64
5 225 231.12 9.14
6 285 238.74 8.98
7 305 251.45 9.36
8 190 265.23 9.80
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.07291271101
R Square 0.00531626343
Adjusted R Square -0.3262449821
Standard Error 34.9628374135
Observations 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 19.6 19.6 0.016034 0.907247
Residual 3 3667.2 1222.4
Total 4 3686.8

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 211.4 36.66933 5.765035 0.010373 94.70182
Quarter -1.4 11.05622 -0.126626 0.907247 -36.58583
CLE HOLT'S METHOD
0.1 1-alpha(beta) 0.9
Forecast Error Absolute Error
200 0 0.00
218.9 31.1 31.10
232.221 -57.221 57.22
236.13769 -50.13769 50.14
240.2613341 -15.2613341 15.26
247.72000045 37.279999551 37.28
260.80560016 44.19439984139 44.19
275.0245839 -85.0245838956729 85.02
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
328.0982 94.70182 328.0982
33.78583 -36.58583 33.78583
 alpha 0.1
1-alpha 0.9
beta 0.2
1-beta 0.8
Year Sales (in 1000s) Level Intercept Forecast Error Absolute er
1 21.6 21.6 1.3
2 22.9 22.9 1.3
3 25.5 24.33 1.33 24.20 1.30 1.30
4 21.9 25.28 1.25 25.66 -3.76 3.76
5 23.9 26.27 1.20 26.53 -2.63 2.63
6 27.5 27.47 1.20 27.47 0.03 0.03
7 31.5 28.95 1.26 28.67 2.83 2.83
8 29.7 30.16 1.25 30.21 -0.51 0.51
9 28.6 31.12 1.19 31.40 -2.80 2.80
10 31.4 32.22 1.17 32.31 -0.91 0.91
1.85
Squared error
Chart Title
35
1.69
30
14.11
6.92 25

0.00 20
8.02
15
0.26
7.85 10

0.83 5
4.96
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sales (in 1000s) Forecast

 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4
Monday 16.2 17.3 14.6 16.1 16.2 16.14593
Tuesday 12.2 11.5 13.1 11.8 12.2 12.15928
Wednesday 14.2 15 13 12.9 14.2 14.15261
Thursday 17.3 17.6 16.9 16.6 17.3 17.24226
Friday 22.5 23.5 21.9 24.3 22.5 22.42491
average 16.48 16.98 15.9 16.34 16.425 17.3 16.73454
0.983 1.019 0.918 0.985 11.5 11.12412
0.740 0.677 0.824 0.722 15 14.50972
0.862 0.883 0.818 0.789 17.6 17.02473
1.050 1.037 1.063 1.016 23.5 22.73189
1.365 1.384 1.377 1.487 14.6 15.08208
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
forecasts 16.15 16.73 15.08 16.18 13.1 13.53255
12.16 11.12 13.53 11.86 13 13.42925
14.15 14.51 13.43 12.97 16.9 17.45802
17.24 17.02 17.46 16.69 21.9 22.62311
22.42 22.73 22.62 24.43 16.1 16.18375
11.8 11.86138
12.9 12.96711
16.6 16.68635
24.3 24.42641

Year Quarter Sales

1 1 125 118 138 109 130 124
2 153 161 144 137 165 152
3 106 133 113 125 128 121
4 88 102 80 109 96 95

2 1 118
2 161
3 133
4 102
3 1 138 Quarter1 Quarter2 Quarter3
2 144 Year1 125 153 106
3 113 Year2 118 161 133
4 80 Year3 138 144 113
4 1 109 Year4 109 137 125
2 137 Year5 130 165 128
3 125 Average 124 152 121
4 109 1.008065
5 1 130 0.951613
2 165 1.112903
3 128 0.879032
4 96 1.048387
 Chart Title
Chart Title 30
30
25
25

20
20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 160 17 18 19 20 21
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Column H Column I

1.008065 0.951613 1.112903 0.879032 1.048387 126.008065

1.006579 1.059211 0.947368 0.901316 1.085526 118.951613
0.876033 1.099174 0.933884 1.033058 1.057851 117.967742
0.926316 1.073684 0.842105 1.147368 1.010526 92.2580645

118.776316
170.532895
126
110.723684
Quarter4
88
102
80
109
96
95
Chart Title

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
4 1 2 3 4
 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

Monday 16.2 17.3 14.6 16.1

16.05

Tuesday 12.2 11.5 13.1 11.8

Wednesday 14.2 15 13 12.9

Thursday 17.3 17.6 16.9 16.6

Friday 22.5 23.5 21.9 24.3 16.425

Factor 16.48 16.98 15.9 16.34 16.425
0.977 0.986 1.053 0.889 0.980 16.1
0.740 0.743 0.700 0.798 0.718 12.1
0.839 0.865 0.913 0.791 0.785 13.8
1.041 1.053 1.072 1.029 1.011 17.1
1.403 1.370 1.431 1.333 1.479 23.1
SEASONALITY INDEX FORECAST
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98377528
R Square 0.9678138
Adjusted R S 0.95976726
Standard Erro 0.24161133
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 21.0638626 7.02128753 120.276882 3.21512E-09
Residual 12 0.70051242 0.05837604
Total 15 21.764375

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Intercept 5.89860248 0.15381356 38.3490413 6.36328E-14 5.56347153 6.23373344 5.56347153
Periods 0.14751553 0.01346447 10.955908 1.32422E-07 0.11817896 0.17685209 0.11817896
S1 -1.20621118 0.15173691 -7.94935931 4.01222E-06 -1.5368175 -0.87560486 -1.5368175
S2 -1.87872671 0.14932823 -12.5811892 2.85012E-08 -2.20408497 -1.55336844 -2.20408497
Upper 95.0%
6.23373344
0.17685209
-0.87560486
-1.55336844
 Sales (in
Year Quarter 1000s) Periods S1 S2 S3 S4
1 1 4.8 1 1 0 0 0
2 4.1 2 0 1 0 0
3 6 3 0 0 1 0
4 6.5 4 0 0 0 1
2 1 5.8 5 1 0 0 0
2 5.2 6 0 1 0 0
3 6.8 7 0 0 1 0
4 7.4 8 0 0 0 1
3 1 6 9 1 0 0 0
2 5.6 10 0 1 0 0
3 7.5 11 0 0 1 0
4 7.8 12 0 0 0 1
4 1 6.3 13 1 0 0 0
2 5.9 14 0 1 0 0
3 8 15 0 0 1 0
4 8.4 16 0 0 0 1
5 1 17 4.71
2 18

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98377528
R Square 0.9678138
Adjusted R S 0.95976726
Standard Erro 0.24161133
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 21.0638626 7.02128753 120.276882 3.21512E-09
Residual 12 0.70051242 0.05837604
Total 15 21.764375

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Intercept 5.89860248 0.15381356 38.3490413 6.36328E-14 5.56347153 6.23373344 5.56347153
Periods 0.14751553 0.01346447 10.955908 1.32422E-07 0.11817896 0.17685209 0.11817896
S1 -1.20621118 0.15173691 -7.94935931 4.01222E-06 -1.5368175 -0.87560486 -1.5368175
S2 -1.87872671 0.14932823 -12.5811892 2.85012E-08 -2.20408497 -1.55336844 -2.20408497
 Sales (in 1000s)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4

Sales (in 1000s)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98806594
R Square 0.9762743
Adjusted R S 0.96764677
Standard Erro 0.21666375
Observations 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 21.248 5.312 113.158073 7.37582E-09
Residual 11 0.516375 0.04694318
Total 15 21.764375

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 6.06875 0.16249781 37.3466561 6.12289E-13 5.71109472
Upper 95.0% Periods 0.145625 0.01211187 12.0233272 1.14029E-07 0.11896695
6.23373344 S1 -1.363125 0.15745434 -8.65727191 3.05975E-06 -1.70967966
0.17685209 S2 -2.03375 0.15510764 -13.111862 4.65532E-08 -2.37513962
-0.87560486 S3 -0.304375 0.15368243 -1.98054525 0.07320104 -0.64262774
-1.55336844
s (in 1000s)

3 4

Sales (in 1000s)

gnificance F

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

6.42640528 5.71109472 6.42640528
0.17228305 0.11896695 0.17228305
-1.01657034 -1.70967966 -1.01657034
-1.69236038 -2.37513962 -1.69236038
0.03387774 -0.64262774 0.03387774
 Year Quarter Sales (in 1000s)
1 1 4.8
2 4.1
3 6 9
4 6.5 8
2 1 5.8
7
2 5.2
3 6.8 6
4 7.4
5
3 1 6
2 5.6 4
3 7.5 3
4 7.8
2
4 1 6.3
2 5.9 1
3 8 0
4 8.4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Time Period Q1 Q2 Q3
ForecastedSales (inSales
1000s)
(in 1000s)
1 1 0 0 4.8 4.8
2 0 1 0 4.1 4.1
3 0 0 1 6 6
4 0 0 0 6.5 6.5
5 1 0 0 5.8 5.8
6 0 1 0 5.2 5.2
7 0 0 1 6.8 6.8
8 0 0 0 7.4 7.4
9 1 0 0 6 6
10 0 1 0 5.6 5.6
11 0 0 1 7.5 7.5
12 0 0 0 7.8 7.8
13 1 0 0 6.3 6.3
14 0 1 0 5.9 5.9
15 0 0 1 8 8
16 0 0 0 8.4 8.4
17 7.18
18 6.66
19 8.53125
 SUMMARY OUTP

3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

After forecasting Chart Title

ales (in 1000s)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

ForecastedSales (in 1000s) Sales (in 1000s)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.988066
R Square 0.976274
Adjusted R 0.967647
Standard Er 0.216664
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 21.248 5.312 113.1581 7.376E-09
Residual 11 0.516375 0.046943
Total 15 21.76438

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 6.06875 0.162498 37.34666 6.123E-13 5.711095 6.426405 5.711095 6.426405
Time Perio 0.145625 0.012112 12.02333 1.14E-07 0.118967 0.172283 0.118967 0.172283
Q1 -1.363125 0.157454 -8.657272 3.06E-06 -1.70968 -1.01657 -1.70968 -1.01657
Q2 -2.03375 0.155108 -13.11186 4.655E-08 -2.37514 -1.69236 -2.37514 -1.69236
Q3 -0.304375 0.153682 -1.980545 0.073201 -0.642628 0.033878 -0.642628 0.033878
 Year Quarter Time periodSales (in 1000s)4 quarter ma centred ma
1 1 1 4.8
2 2 4.1
3 3 6 5.35 5.475
4 4 6.5 5.6 5.7375
2 1 5 5.8 5.875 5.975
2 6 5.2 6.075 6.1875
3 7 6.8 6.3 6.325
4 8 7.4 6.35 6.4
3 1 9 6 6.45 6.5375
2 10 5.6 6.625 6.675
3 11 7.5 6.725 6.7625
4 12 7.8 6.8 6.8375
4 1 13 6.3 6.875 6.9375
2 14 5.9 7 7.075
3 15 8 7.15
4 16 8.4
1 17
2 8
3 19
4 20
year quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4
1 4.8 4.1 6 6.5
2 5.8 5.2 6.8 7.4
3 6 5.6 7.5 7.8
4 6.3 5.9 8 8.4

slope 0.47 0.58 0.67 0.61 0.5825

Si 0.81 1.00 1.15 1.05
intercept 4.55 3.75 5.4 6
forecast 6.9 6.65 8.75 9.05

year quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 sum

1 5.95 4.12 5.22 6.21 21.49
2 7.19 5.22 5.22 7.07 24.69
3 7.44 5.62 5.22 7.45 25.73
4 7.81 5.93 5.22 8.02 26.97

slope 0.58 0.58 0.00 0.58 1.75

seasonality index seasonal deseasonalised sales trend forecast error^2
0.93066171 5.15762061558721 5.255423872332 4.891021746 0.00828496
0.83637633 4.9020995379269 5.402805869787 4.518778922 0.17537579
1.09589041096 1.09154407 5.49680053413186 5.550187867242 6.058274627 0.00339593
1.13289760349 1.1414179 5.69467149664527 5.697569864697 6.503308249 1.09445E-05
0.97071129707 0.93066171 6.23212491050122 5.844951862152 5.43967287 0.12983564
0.8404040404 0.83637633 6.21729697493168 5.992333859607 5.011846176 0.03540186
1.07509881423 1.09154407 6.2297072720161 6.139715857062 6.701770405 0.00964905
1.15625 1.1414179 6.48316447310385 6.287097854517 7.176206051 0.05008373
0.91778202677 0.93066171 6.44702576948402 6.434479851972 5.988323995 0.00013633
0.83895131086 0.83637633 6.69555058838796 6.581861849427 5.50491343 0.00904146
1.10905730129 1.09154407 6.87100066766482 6.729243846882 7.345266184 0.02394255
1.1407678245 1.1414179 6.83360579597433 6.876625844337 7.849103853 0.00241119
0.90810810811 0.93066171 6.76937705795822 7.024007841792 6.53697512 0.05615721
0.83392226148 0.83637633 7.05424079848018 7.171389839247 5.997980684 0.00960021
1.09154407 7.32906737884247 7.318771836702 7.988761962 0.00012629
1.1414179 7.35926778028005 7.466153834157 8.522001656 0.0148844
0.93066171 7.613535831612 7.086
0.83637633 6.287097854517 5.258
1.09154407 7.908299826523 8.632
1.1414179 8.055681823978 9.195
quarter unadjusted seaonality adjusted seasonality
1 0.93220047731596 0.930661705805
2 0.837759204249854 0.836376325752
3 1.09334884216068 1.091544065087
4 1.14330514266103 1.141417903356
total 4.00661366638753 4
mean 1.00165341659688 1
sum of se 0.52833755
mean se 0.0330211